瑞丰银行(601528) 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 27 日 息差企稳，不良波动 ——瑞丰银行 25H1 业绩点评 投资要点 ❑ 25H1 瑞丰银行营收、归母净利润同比增速有所放缓，息差韧性较强。 ❑ 业绩概览 25H1 营收、归母净利润同比+3.9%、+5.6%，增速环比 25Q1 放缓 1.2pc、1.1pc； 25Q2 末不良率环比+1bp 至 0.98%，25Q2 末拨备覆盖率环比提升 14pc 至 340%。 ❑ 盈利增速放缓 25H1 瑞丰银行营收、归母净利润同比分别+3.9%、+5.6%，增速环比 25Q1 放缓 1.2pc、1.1pc。驱动因素来看，规模增长放缓、非息增速放缓拖累盈利表现。 ❑ 息差环比企稳 瑞丰银行 25H1 息差环比 25Q1 持平于 1.46%，息差韧性较强，主要得益于存款成 本改善，有效对冲资产端收益率下行影响。 （1）资产端。测算 25Q2 资产端收益率环比下降 9bp 至 3.19%，主要源于贷款利 率行业性下行。25H1瑞丰银行贷款收益率较24H2下降29bp，其中对公贷款（不 含票据贴现）、零售贷款分别下降 32bp、35bp。 （2）负债端。测算 25 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights an increased probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by adjustments in monetary policy and rising employment risks, which is expected to improve global liquidity and benefit the A-share market's growth style [1][2][30]. Group 1: Market Style Rotation - The market style is expected to favor large-cap growth stocks, with mid-cap stocks also performing well, while small-cap stocks lag behind [2][10]. - Growth stocks are anticipated to outperform value stocks, with a strong concentration of growth-related indices among the top performers [2][10]. - The report emphasizes that the growth and consumption sectors will dominate the market style in September, with a favorable liquidity environment supporting large-cap growth stocks [2][11]. Group 2: Industry Configuration - The top ten industries based on scoring include Media, Computer, Non-bank Financials, Electronics, Communication, Real Estate, Light Industry Manufacturing, Agriculture, Banking, and Consumer Services [3][43]. - In a high-risk environment, technology growth and non-bank financials are expected to benefit significantly, particularly in downstream applications catalyzed by the "AI+" initiative, focusing on Media and Computer sectors, as well as high beta brokerage firms [3][44]. - The report suggests a focus on real estate, which has lagged in performance within the financial sector, as well as on non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals, given the anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][43].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The company successfully issued convertible bonds amounting to 1.17 billion yuan, primarily aimed at expanding the production capacity of semiconductor thin-film deposition equipment, enhancing R&D capabilities, and supplementing working capital [1][8] - The company is a leading domestic supplier of ALD equipment, with a focus on advanced semiconductor thin-film deposition processes, including High-k ALD technology, which is crucial for manufacturing integrated circuits below the 28nm process node [2] - The company has also made significant strides in CVD equipment, with a growing order book and a projected increase in semiconductor revenue share over the next three years [3] - In the photovoltaic equipment sector, the company is a pioneer in applying ALD technology at scale, maintaining a leading position in revenue, order volume, and market share among domestic peers [4] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Equipment - The company has a strong foothold in ALD and CVD equipment, with a 66% year-on-year increase in semiconductor orders, totaling 1.5 billion yuan by the end of 2024 [3] - The company is expanding its production capacity with a new smart factory project, expected to generate annual sales of 1.565 billion yuan upon reaching full capacity [8] Photovoltaic Equipment - The company is recognized as a leader in high-efficiency battery technology and equipment, collaborating with major domestic photovoltaic manufacturers [4] - Despite a decline in new orders for photovoltaic equipment this year, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming growth in new battery technologies [4] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.7 billion, 3.1 billion, and 3.4 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 340 million, 460 million, and 560 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 51%, 34%, and 21% respectively [9][11]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Quantitative Alpha Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses price and volume, high-frequency alpha factors as signals to calculate the overall score of each index[13] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the scores based on factors such as incremental funds entering the market (amt_mustd3m/turn_utd), intraday trading (tcv_intra), and interday stability - trading depth improvement (mom_mdr3m)[17] - Formula: $ \text{Score} = \text{amt_mustd3m/turn_utd} + \text{tcv_intra} + \text{mom_mdr3m} $ - The parameters represent the following: - amt_mustd3m/turn_utd: Incremental funds entering the market - tcv_intra: Intraday trading - mom_mdr3m: Interday stability - trading depth improvement - **Model Evaluation**: The model's internal selection has been pointing towards micro-cap stocks since September 2024, indicating a preference for micro-cap stocks[13][17] Model Name: Non-linear Market Cap Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates the impact of non-linear market cap fluctuations on manager excess returns[20] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the average distance of scatter points from the origin during significant non-linear market cap fluctuations[20] - Formula: $ \text{Average Distance} = \frac{\sum \text{Distance from Origin}}{\text{Number of Points}} $ - The parameters represent the following: - Distance from Origin: The distance of each scatter point from the origin during non-linear market cap fluctuations - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows that managers' excess returns are significantly influenced by non-linear market cap fluctuations, with the average distance from the origin increasing from 0.84 in 2023 to 1.49 in 2024 and 1.19 in 2025[20][30] Model Name: Linear Market Cap Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates the impact of linear market cap fluctuations on manager excess returns[26] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model calculates the average distance of scatter points from the origin during significant linear market cap fluctuations[26] - Formula: $ \text{Average Distance} = \frac{\sum \text{Distance from Origin}}{\text{Number of Points}} $ - The parameters represent the following: - Distance from Origin: The distance of each scatter point from the origin during linear market cap fluctuations - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows that managers' excess returns are influenced by linear market cap fluctuations, with the average distance from the origin increasing from 0.69 in 2023 to 1.05 in 2024 and 0.96 in 2025[26][32] Model Backtest Results Quantitative Alpha Model - **IR**: 0.55[17] - **Excess Return**: 1.9%[28] Non-linear Market Cap Model - **IR**: 1.19[30] - **Excess Return**: 1.9%[28] Linear Market Cap Model - **IR**: 0.96[32] - **Excess Return**: 0.08%[28] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Incremental Funds Entering the Market (amt_mustd3m/turn_utd) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the amount of new funds entering the market[17] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{amt_mustd3m/turn_utd} $ - The parameters represent the following: - amt_mustd3m: Amount of new funds entering the market - turn_utd: Market turnover - **Factor Evaluation**: Indicates the improvement in the trading environment for micro-cap stocks[17] Factor Name: Intraday Trading (tcv_intra) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the intensity of intraday trading[17] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{tcv_intra} $ - The parameters represent the following: - tcv_intra: Intraday trading volume - **Factor Evaluation**: Indicates the improvement in the trading environment for micro-cap stocks[17] Factor Name: Interday Stability - Trading Depth Improvement (mom_mdr3m) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the stability and depth of trading over multiple days[17] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{mom_mdr3m} $ - The parameters represent the following: - mom_mdr3m: Momentum and trading depth over three months - **Factor Evaluation**: Indicates the improvement in the trading environment for micro-cap stocks[17] Factor Backtest Results Incremental Funds Entering the Market (amt_mustd3m/turn_utd) - **IR**: 0.55[17] - **Excess Return**: 1.9%[28] Intraday Trading (tcv_intra) - **IR**: 0.55[17] - **Excess Return**: 1.9%[28] Interday Stability - Trading Depth Improvement (mom_mdr3m) - **IR**: 0.55[17] - **Excess Return**: 1.9%[28]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dong'e Ejiao is maintained as "Buy" [6][7]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue of 3.051 billion RMB (up 11.02% year-on-year) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 818 million RMB (up 10.74% year-on-year) [6]. - The company is expected to achieve sustainable high-quality growth throughout the year, supported by strong brand power and marketing systems [6]. - The gross profit margin remains stable, and profit growth is anticipated to outpace revenue growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [6]. - A mid-term dividend plan has been implemented, with a cash dividend of 12.69 RMB per 10 shares, totaling approximately 817 million RMB, which represents 99.94% of the net profit for the first half of 2025 [6]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.896 billion RMB, 2.273 billion RMB, and 2.718 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.94 RMB, 3.53 RMB, and 4.22 RMB [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 5.921 billion RMB, 6.820 billion RMB, 7.808 billion RMB, and 8.899 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 25.57%, 15.20%, 14.48%, and 13.97% respectively [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 1.557 billion RMB in 2024 to 2.718 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 35.29%, 21.75%, 19.87%, and 19.60% [4][6]. - The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 73.13%, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.41 percentage points [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5] Core Views - The company has shown steady profit growth with a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit of 0.5% and 4.6% respectively for the first half of 2025, although the growth rates have slightly decreased compared to the first quarter [2][5] - The net interest margin remains resilient, with a slight decrease to 1.60% in the first half of 2025, indicating improved profitability despite challenges in non-interest income [2][3] - The non-interest income has faced significant pressure, declining by 16.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a substantial drop in card-related income [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 28,741 million and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 12,114 million, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 0.5% and 4.6% [6] - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.17% as of the end of Q2 2025, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 8 percentage points to 356% [4][6] Profitability and Margins - The average net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 1.60%, slightly down from the previous quarter, with the asset yield decreasing to 3.05% [3] - The cost of liabilities improved, with a decrease in the cost of time deposits contributing to a better margin [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio for retail operating loans increased to 2.46% by the end of the first half of 2025, indicating a need for close monitoring of this segment [4] - The company’s TTM non-performing loan generation rate was 0.86%, showing a slight increase in pressure [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 5.2%, 5.5%, and 6.3% for the years 2025 to 2027, with a target price of 7.81 CNY per share, reflecting a potential upside of 21% [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chengdu Bank is "Buy" with a target price of 21.12 CNY per share, indicating an upside potential of 18% from the current price of 17.86 CNY [5][7]. Core Insights - Chengdu Bank's H1 2025 earnings growth has improved, with revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 5.9% and 7.3% year-on-year, respectively [2][5]. - The bank's asset quality remains strong, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stable at 0.66% and a provision coverage ratio of 453% as of the end of Q2 2025 [4][5]. - Future growth is supported by strong regional economic vitality and robust credit demand, which is expected to sustain rapid profit growth [3][5]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - Chengdu Bank's revenue and net profit for H1 2025 increased by 5.9% and 7.3% year-on-year, with quarter-on-quarter growth rates improving by 2.7 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points, respectively [2][5]. - The bank's total assets grew by 14.3% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 18.0% [2][5]. Interest Margin and Cost of Deposits - The net interest margin for Q2 2025 slightly decreased by 2 basis points to 1.58%, but improved by 1 basis point year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in deposit costs [3][4]. - The cost of deposits improved to 1.96% in H1 2025, down from 2.16% in 2024, benefiting from interest rate cuts [3][4]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remained stable at 0.66%, while the attention loan ratio increased slightly to 0.44% [4][5]. - The TTM generation rate for NPLs and attention loans decreased by 14 basis points to 0.27%, indicating continued improvement in asset quality [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Chengdu Bank's net profit is projected to grow by 7.95%, 7.35%, and 9.52% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding book values per share of 21.12, 23.60, and 26.35 CNY [5][12]. - The target valuation for 2025 is set at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.0x [5].

Market Overview - On August 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.39%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.37%, the STAR 50 dropped by 1.31%, the CSI 1000 was down by 0.02%, the ChiNext Index declined by 0.76%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.18% [4] - The best-performing sectors on August 26 were Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+2.62%), Beauty and Personal Care (+2.04%), Basic Chemicals (+1.26%), Media (+1.23%), and Comprehensive (+1.09%). The worst-performing sectors were Pharmaceuticals and Biology (-1.09%), Non-Bank Financials (-1.06%), Steel (-0.98%), Defense and Military Industry (-0.93%), and Communications (-0.79%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on August 26 was 27,098.31 billion, with a net inflow of 16.572 billion HKD from southbound funds [4] Important Recommendations Weichai Heavy Machinery (000880) - Recommended as a leading manufacturer of marine medium-speed engines, with AIDC driving high growth in the diesel generator business [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5,280 million, 6,935 million, and 8,093 million, with growth rates of 32%, 31%, and 17% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 301 million, 502 million, and 624 million, with growth rates of 62%, 67%, and 24% respectively [5] - The expected earnings per share are 0.91, 1.52, and 1.88, with PE ratios of 56, 33, and 27 [5] Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) - Recommended for its combination of high dividends and growth potential, benefiting from Chinese enterprises going global and the Belt and Road Initiative [6] - Target price is set at 44.28 HKD per share, corresponding to a 2025 PB of 1.26 times, indicating a potential upside of 20% [6] - Expected net profit growth rates for 2025-2027 are 5.55%, 3.38%, and 1.56%, with BPS projected at 35.18, 38.38, and 41.56 HKD [7] Important Insights GLP-1 Sector Analysis - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the GLP-1 sector, highlighting significant opportunities for domestic companies in the weight loss indication area [8] - Investment opportunities are identified in companies with competitive clinical data and advanced pipelines, including Borui Pharmaceutical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, and others [8] - Catalysts for growth include clinical data releases and ongoing business development events [8] Taotao Vehicle (301345) - The company reported an 88% year-on-year growth in its first half performance, positioning itself as a leading player in the North American leisure vehicle market [9] - Investment opportunities arise from the company's consistent performance and accelerated smart technology integration [9] - Catalysts include exceeding order expectations and an improved competitive landscape [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.314 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.65%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 82 million yuan, a decrease of 48.65% year-on-year [2][4] - The revenue from bulk gases increased by 23.1% year-on-year, while the revenue from specialty gases decreased by 18.4% year-on-year due to significant price declines in key products [2][3] - The company is focusing on both organic growth and external acquisitions to enhance its long-term development, having successfully integrated CHEM-GAS and Hanxing Gas to expand its market presence [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 691 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.07%. The net profit for the quarter was 38 million yuan, down 54.3% year-on-year and 13.19% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 29.7%, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 6.9%, down 6.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Growth Strategy - The company is pursuing a multi-business collaboration strategy, focusing on the development path of "bulk retail - electronic specialty gases - electronic bulk - on-site gas production" [3] - In H1 2025, the company onboarded 18 new semiconductor clients for electronic specialty gases and secured six new projects in electronic bulk gases [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 198 million yuan, 275 million yuan, and 363 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 46, 33, and 25 [4] - The company is expected to see significant growth potential as new projects come online and various business segments continue to expand [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading AI for Science innovative R&D platform, leveraging a combination of AI, quantum technology, and robotics to create competitive advantages, primarily in pharmaceutical R&D, with plans to expand into materials and other fields, suggesting that revenue growth and profit release may exceed expectations [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company integrates quantum physics, AI algorithms, and robotic automation to enhance R&D efficiency in pharmaceuticals and materials science [15]. - Founded by three MIT postdoctoral researchers, the company has established partnerships with major pharmaceutical firms, including 17 of the top 20 global drug companies [2][19]. 2. Financial Performance - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 602 million, 918 million, and 1.316 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 126.1%, 52.4%, and 43.3% [4][10]. - The company anticipates turning a profit in the first half of 2025, with expected revenues of at least 500 million CNY, a 387% increase from the first half of 2024 [40]. 3. Market Trends - The global CRO market is projected to grow from 12.3 billion USD in 2023 to 32.5 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 14.9% [3][55]. - The report highlights a significant trend towards outsourcing in drug development, with the global market for outsourced drug discovery services expected to grow from 7.6 billion USD in 2018 to 32.5 billion USD by 2030 [55][56]. 4. Business Model and Growth Drivers - The company employs a revenue-sharing model that enhances income flexibility, with significant potential revenue from collaborations, including a recent agreement with DoveTree that could yield up to 58.9 billion USD in milestone payments [2][39]. - The company has developed a unique high-throughput experimental platform that operates 24/7, generating high-quality data to improve AI models, thus enhancing the drug discovery process [16][44]. 5. Product and Service Offerings - The company offers a diverse range of products, including intelligent synthesis workstations and AI software applications, which collectively create a robust barrier to entry in the market [48]. - The company has established a comprehensive R&D platform that covers the entire drug development process, integrating multiple core products and technologies [45][46]. 6. Strategic Partnerships - The company has formed strategic partnerships with leading pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer and Merck, to enhance its market presence and drive innovation [48][49]. - The report notes that the company has successfully developed key projects, including an innovative targeted drug that integrates AI and organoid disease models, receiving FDA approval [50].