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科创新源(300731):液冷新星,有望业绩与估值双击
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-30 11:15
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to enter a high growth cycle driven by its dual focus on polymer materials and thermal management systems, particularly in the booming sectors of new energy vehicles and data centers [1][4]. - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.05% in revenue from 2017 to 2023, with a significant revenue increase of 72% year-over-year in 2024, primarily due to the rapid expansion in the new energy battery sector [1][29]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with projections of 1.45 billion, 2.42 billion, and 3.37 billion yuan in revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 51.3%, 67.0%, and 39.2% [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Management System Business - The company has established a dual business model focusing on polymer materials and thermal management, serving major clients such as Huawei and CATL [18][19]. - In 2024, the company plans to invest 90 million yuan in a new project for large-area cooling liquid plates for new energy vehicles to meet the production demands of major clients [3]. 2. AI Liquid Cooling - The demand for AI-driven data centers is expected to surge, with the company aiming to penetrate the supply chain of leading server manufacturers by establishing a subsidiary focused on data center cooling solutions [2][40]. - The company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Dongguan Zhaoke, a thermal interface materials company, to enhance its product offerings and market reach [2][24]. 3. Vehicle Cooling Plates - The company is set to benefit from the increasing production of CATL's Kirin and Shenxing batteries, which will enhance the value of its liquid cooling plates used in electric vehicles [3][75]. - The new energy business is projected to generate significant revenue, with a forecasted increase of 361.36% year-over-year in 2024 [35]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to enter a rapid growth phase driven by its new energy battery and data center thermal management businesses, with a projected net profit of 0.92 billion, 1.57 billion, and 2.19 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][12]. - The report anticipates a significant improvement in profitability, with net profit growth rates of 430.5%, 70.8%, and 39.6% for the same years [4].
海外科技产业跟踪:海外科技周度复盘-20250630
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-30 10:45
海外科技周度复盘 ——海外科技产业跟踪(2025.6.23-6.29) 跟踪要点 ❑ 一周海外科技行情 6 月 23 日- 6 月 29 日,标普 500 指数上涨 3.4%,纳斯达克指数上涨 4.2%, NVDA 上涨 9.7%,TSLA 上涨 0.5%,AAPL 基本持平,MSFT 上涨 3.9%, AMZN 上涨 6.5%,META 上涨 7.5%,GOOGL 上涨 7.1%,AVGO 上涨 7.7%。 ❑ 近期海外科技重点事件 软银对 OpenAI 的总投资将达到 332 亿美元。6 月 27 日,软银 CEO 孙正义在软 银集团的股东大会上表示,软银向 OpenAI 的总投资将达到 4.8 万亿日元(约合 332 亿美元)。 马斯克宣布 7 月 4 日后发布 Grok 4 模型。6 月 27 日,马斯克在 X 上宣布,将于 7 月 4 日后发布 Grok 4。他透露,"和 xAI 团队通宵打磨 Grok,下一代模型将 被称为 Grok 4,在独立日(7 月 4 日)之后就发布。还需针对专业编程模型进行 一次重大调试。" OpenAI 希望通过谷歌云租用的 TPU 芯片降低推理计算成本。据媒体报道,作 ...
奥比中光(688322):5月扭亏,“技术创新投入-商业成果转化”战略加速落地催化
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-30 09:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in profitability from January to May 2025, with revenue of 363 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 117%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 55 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [1] - The company's strategy of "technology innovation investment - commercialization of results" is accelerating, providing a strong foundation for technological iteration and innovation across various sectors, including humanoid robots and AI hardware upgrades [1] - The humanoid robot industry is entering a rapid expansion phase, with an estimated demand of approximately 2.1 million units and a market space of about 314.6 billion yuan by 2030 [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first five months of 2025, the company reported revenue of 363 million yuan and a net profit of 55 million yuan, indicating a significant recovery [1] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.03 billion, 1.63 billion, and 2.16 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 82%, 58%, and 32% respectively [5][7] Market Position - The company is positioned in the top tier of global 3D vision technology, with a comprehensive R&D capability and a wide-ranging technology layout [3] - The demand for 3D vision sensors in humanoid robots is expected to grow from 14 million yuan in 2025 to 915 million yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 132% [2] Product Development - The company has a strong product matrix that is widely recognized across various industries, serving over 1,000 clients including major players like Ant Group and China Mobile [3] - Continuous R&D investment has led to the development of advanced products such as the Femto series ToF cameras and Gemini series binocular structured light cameras [3] Strategic Partnerships - Ant Group has announced its entry into the humanoid robot sector, which may lead to deeper collaboration with the company in the field of robot vision sensors [4]
波动看债系列之一:最近一年信用债成交有何规律?
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-30 03:50
Report Information - Report Title: What are the Patterns in Credit Bond Transactions in the Past Year? — One of the Series on Analyzing Bonds through Volatility [1] - Analyst: Du Jian, CFA from Zheshang Fixed Income [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the indicators for observing secondary - market credit bond transactions and the patterns in credit bond transactions over the past year, including increased preference for second - tier and perpetual (二永) bonds, reduced sustainability of the duration strategy, the potential of the deviation of 二永 bonds from valuation in trading as a leading indicator of yields, and increased selling pressure on long - duration credit bonds during adjustments [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Through which indicators to observe credit bond secondary transactions? - "Price" indicators: Broker transactions can collect a large amount of market trading information. After filtering out invalid quotes, they provide the best price to customers, reflecting comprehensive price information. Suitable for constructing price indicators such as trading deviation, trading yield, and high - valuation trading ratio [4][8] - "Volume" indicators: Traders use brokers to find prices and trading counterparts and then complete transactions on the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) or exchange platforms. Platform transactions can fully reflect the specific scale of trading volume, suitable for constructing volume indicators such as trading duration and turnover rate [4][8] 3.2成交规律一:对二永债的偏好大幅提升 - Since July 2024, the trading activity of credit bonds has significantly increased compared to previous years, with the increase in trading volume mainly in 二永 bonds. The reasons are that 二永 bonds are interest - rate amplifiers, facilitating capital gain speculation in a strong downward - interest - rate market, and investors prefer 二永 bonds for their better liquidity during market adjustments. Investors' preference is mainly concentrated on state - owned and joint - stock bank 二永 bonds [12] 3.3成交规律二:久期策略持续性降低 - Since August 2024, long - duration credit bonds have shown a "fast - up - fast - down" pattern, with liquidity issues during corrections. They failed to provide stable excess returns as in 2023 - H1 2024. The trading duration centers of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and 二永 bonds have remained at 2.5 years, 3 years, and 3.5 years respectively [13] 3.4成交规律二:近期机构对于城投、产业拉久期诉求高于二永 - In recent duration strategies, the market has focused on extending the duration of medium - and high - grade urban investment and industrial bonds, while the trading duration of state - owned and joint - stock bank 二永 bonds has not significantly increased. This is because the trading duration of 二永 bonds is already high, and the market also wants to balance coupon income. Since March, the yield of short - duration credit bonds has dropped too fast, and since June, it has been difficult for institutions to obtain short - term bonds with a yield above 2%, leading to passive extension of duration to make up for the lack of coupon income [17][18][19] 3.5成交规律三:二永债偏离估值成交幅度或可视作收益率领先指标 - The trading deviation of 二永 bonds from valuation generally leads credit bond yields by 1 - 3 trading days. In the past year, this indicator led the turning points of credit bond yields on September 26, 2024, October 9, 2024, and January 2 - 3, 2025 [25] 3.6成交规律四:调整期间长久期信用债抛售压力加大 - Since 2024, long - duration credit bonds have seen their liquidity issues magnified during market adjustments, with a significantly higher trading deviation than short - duration credit bonds. In 2023, the trading deviation of 二永 bonds across all durations was around 1bp, and the average trading price of general credit bonds over 5 years was even 0.5bp lower than the valuation. In 2024, the high - valuation trading ratio of long - term bonds was higher than that of short - term bonds [29][31][37]
浙商早知道-20250630
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-29 23:38
Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights 京北方 (002987) as a leading financial technology service provider, benefiting from the acceleration of the digital currency strategy and the deep integration of AI in the financial sector, with expected business growth exceeding market expectations [4] - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will grow from 5147 million in 2025 to 6291 million in 2027, with a net profit growth rate of 16.34% in 2025 [5] - The report identifies 珍酒李渡 (06979) as a rare leader in the sauce liquor market, with multiple brands and a flexible operational strategy, poised for performance growth as consumer demand recovers [6] Group 2: Market Insights - The report suggests increasing attention to small and mid-cap stocks, emphasizing financial, growth, and consumer sectors, particularly banks, brokers, and TMT [8] - It notes that the market is expected to experience clearer trading opportunities in July, despite increased uncertainties, with a focus on internal policy developments and mid-report performance disclosures [8] - The report indicates that the industrial profit growth is on a slow recovery path, requiring effective demand to strengthen and industrial product prices to rise reasonably [10] Group 3: Profit Forecasts and Valuations - For 京北方, the target price is set at 28.11 yuan, indicating an upside potential of 54.39%, with a PE ratio forecasted to decrease from 44 in 2025 to 33 in 2027 [5] - For 珍酒李渡, the revenue growth rates are projected at 2%, 5%, and 7% from 2025 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 14%, 8%, and 10% respectively [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy developments as catalysts for both companies, particularly in the context of market recovery and demand restoration [6][10]
可转债周度跟踪:评级调整期有望平稳度过-20250629
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-29 13:44
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The convertible bond ratings are expected to be fully announced by June 30, 2025. The recovery of conversion ability supports the performance of the convertible bond market. Most convertible bonds are priced based on the equity nature of the underlying stocks, and the market is unlikely to be disturbed by rating adjustments. However, during the rating announcement period from May to June, market sentiment will be affected, and the valuation center will continue to decline [1]. - The convertible bonds with rating adjustments in 2025 are mostly not the mainstream bonds of institutions, so the impact on the market is relatively limited. The market is in an upward phase, and although rating adjustments impact the performance of convertible bonds on the day of adjustment, the decline amplitude is relatively small [7]. - The recovery of conversion ability is the core reason for the limited credit risk disturbance in 2025. As of now, each rating index has not shown significant adjustments, and low - rated small - cap stocks have greater elasticity. In May - June, the market has a learning effect, and the convertible bond premium rate has significantly decreased. After April 7, small - cap stocks have been in an upward oscillation phase, and the Treasury bond yield has first risen and then fallen. The conversion parity of the convertible bond market is around 90, and the conversion ability has significantly improved [9]. - After the easing of the Middle - East situation, the equity market has seen an improvement in sentiment and has risen above key points. The convertible bond market has performed well driven by the equity market in the past week. The ratings of several key targets of convertible bonds in the photovoltaic industry, which investors are most concerned about, have remained unchanged, and the rating risk has basically landed, with limited impact on the market. In the third quarter, the valuation center of balanced convertible bonds is expected to return to the upward repair channel, and attention should be paid to the refinement of rhythm and target selection. The allocation strategy is recommended to focus on three main lines: strengthening band - trading on a neutral position to improve position flexibility; selecting high - rated, large - cap, bond - biased convertible bonds to build a defensive bottom - position and combining low - priced balanced individual bonds to obtain elastic returns; closely monitoring the windows of redemption, downward adjustment and other clauses and credit rating changes to strengthen the ability to capture clause - game and event - driven returns [10][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1 Market Observation - As of June 27, 2025, 433 convertible bonds have disclosed their 2025 annual ratings, accounting for over 90%. Among them, 32 convertible bonds have had their ratings downgraded, accounting for 7.4%, and the rating adjustment ratio is slightly lower than that in 2024. Another 5 convertible bonds had their ratings downgraded before May, and their ratings remained unchanged in this annual review. Only 5 of these convertible bonds with rating adjustments have a bond balance greater than 1 billion, and their initial ratings are mostly A+ and below, so they are not mainstream bonds of institutions, and the impact on the market is relatively limited [7]. - Taking Wenti Convertible Bond as an example, on June 18, it opened with a decline of over 4%, and its pricing credit rating was downgraded from AA to AA-. Then it repaired upwards. Due to the good overall market sentiment this week, it recovered to above 110, only falling 1 yuan compared to before the rating adjustment. Most convertible bonds with rating adjustments are priced above 115 and are priced based on equity nature, so the decline in the bond floor caused by rating downgrades does not affect the convertible bond price [7]. 2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indexes in different time periods (near - week, near - two - week, since March, near - one - month, near - two - months, near - half - year, near - one - year), such as the WanDe Convertible Bond Energy Index, WanDe Convertible Bond Materials Index, etc. [16]. 2.2 Individual Convertible Bonds - Information on the top five and bottom five individual convertible bonds in terms of price increase and decrease in the near - week is presented [17][19]. 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation trend charts of bond - nature, balanced, and equity - nature convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trend charts of convertible bonds with different parities (90 - 100, 100 - 110, 110 - 120) are provided [21][23][29]. 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Charts showing the proportion trends of high - priced bonds, low - priced bonds, bonds breaking below the bond floor, and the median price trend of the convertible bond market are provided [32][35][38].
工程机械行业月度报告:1-5月我国工程机械出口额同比增长10%,海外市占率持续提升-20250629
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-29 10:24
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - In May 2025, China's engineering machinery export value reached 36.168 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, with a cumulative export value of 165.91 billion yuan from January to May, also up by 10.2% year-on-year [2][3] - The globalization of the engineering machinery industry is ongoing, with an expected continuous increase in overseas market share, where exports are becoming a major source of profit [2] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is driving demand growth and market share enhancement, particularly in emerging markets benefiting from urbanization and industrialization [2] Summary by Sections Export Performance - In May 2025, the export value of engineering machinery was 5.024 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, with a cumulative export value of 23.095 billion USD from January to May, up by 9.0% year-on-year [2] - The export volume of excavators from January to May increased by 23%, with an export value growth of 22% [14] Market Share and Profitability - The top three Chinese manufacturers, XCMG, SANY, and Zoomlion, hold a combined market share of 12.4% in the global top 50 engineering machinery manufacturers, indicating significant room for growth [2] - The overseas revenue and gross profit margins of the five major manufacturers are projected to reach 52% and 61% respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 16% and 17%, surpassing domestic growth rates [2] Regional Export Breakdown - From January to May 2025, exports to Africa reached 3.21 billion USD, up by 49.3%, while exports to Asia were 10.163 billion USD, up by 15.6% [2] - Exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" totaled 11.13 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, accounting for 48.2% of total exports [2] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Shantui, Hengli Hydraulic, Zoomlion, LiuGong, Hangcha Group, Anhui Heli, and Zhongli [2]
流动性与机构行为跟踪:央行延续呵护,资金预计平稳跨月
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-29 09:22
Key Points Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. "Increase holding" means interest risk decreases and net price has room to rise; "Neutral" means interest risk is stable and net price has minor fluctuations; "Reduce holding" means interest risk increases and net price has room to fall [40]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. "Increase holding" means credit risk decreases and net price has room to rise; "Neutral" means credit risk is stable and net price has minor fluctuations; "Reduce holding" means credit risk increases and net price has room to fall [41]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the change of convertible bond price relative to the CSI Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. "Increase holding" means convertible bonds perform better than the index; "Neutral" means performance is the same as the index; "Reduce holding" means performance is worse than the index [42]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Funds**: In the next week, the net financing scale of government bonds will decline, and the central bank is expected to withdraw funds as usual at the beginning of the month. The funds market is likely to maintain a balanced operation and cross the month smoothly [1]. - **Certificates of Deposit (CDs)**: In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs is about 0.25 trillion yuan, and the supply pressure will decrease. The funds market at the beginning of the month is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and CD yields may show a volatile trend [1]. - **Institutional Behavior**: Funds, rural commercial banks, and other products are the main buyers of interest - rate bonds, and the net buying power of rural commercial banks has significantly rebounded [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Funds Review - **Central Bank's Operations**: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the central bank had a net funds injection of 1267.2 billion yuan. This month, the net injection of MLF was 118 billion yuan, and the net injection of outright repurchase was 20 billion yuan. The OMO stock increased to 2027.5 billion yuan [10]. - **Exchange Rate Movement**: During the statistical period, the RMB depreciated by 1.62 basis points against the US dollar due to uncertainties in US tariffs and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts [10]. - **Government Bond Progress**: In the past week, the net financing of national bonds was 111 billion yuan, and the net financing since the beginning of the year was 3350.16 billion yuan, completing 50.3% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 479.467 billion yuan, and the issuance since the beginning of the year was 2558.12 billion yuan, completing 49.2% of the annual plan. As of June 27, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 1.8 trillion yuan, completing 89.8% of the annual plan [13]. - **Funds Structure**: During the statistical period, the lending scale of national and joint - stock banks exceeded 5 trillion yuan, the lending scale of money market funds and wealth management products decreased, and the overall borrowing scale of non - bank institutions decreased significantly. Due to the strong demand for cross - month funds, the core funds rate increased marginally, and the R - series and DR - series moved basically in sync, with an obvious increase in liquidity stratification [16]. 3.1.2 CD Review - **Primary Market**: From June 23 - 27, 2025, the net financing of inter - bank CDs was - 411.35 billion yuan, and the issuance totaled 736.46 billion yuan, with a maturity volume of 1137.81 billion yuan. The average primary issuance rate was 1.6409% (previous value: 1.6556%). In the next three weeks, the maturities of inter - bank CDs will be 245.79 billion, 510.52 billion, and 802.81 billion yuan respectively [19]. - **Secondary Market**: During the statistical period, large banks, money market funds, and wealth management products continued to increase their holdings, while insurance companies and other product accounts continued to hold. Joint - stock banks changed from buying to selling. City and rural commercial banks were still the largest counterparties. The secondary market yield of CDs fluctuated slightly upward, the yield curve remained inverted, and the curve above 3M steepened. The yields of 1M/3M/6M/9M/1Y CDs changed by 3.37BP/0.50BP/1.00BP/0.35BP/0.85BP respectively [21]. 3.1.3 Next Week's Focus - **Funds**: The central bank continued to over - renew MLF in June, and has been renewing MLF for 4 consecutive months to inject liquidity, combined with a net injection of 20 billion yuan in outright repurchase. The funds market was in a balanced and loose state. In the next week, the net financing scale of government bonds will decline, and the central bank is expected to withdraw funds as usual at the beginning of the month. The funds market is likely to maintain a balanced operation and cross the month smoothly [25]. - **CDs**: In the past month, the net financing of CDs remained negative. The central bank's increased open - market operations effectively relieved the banks' liability pressure, and the central level of primary CD rates decreased. In the next week, the maturity scale of CDs is about 0.25 trillion yuan, and the supply pressure will decrease. The funds market at the beginning of the month is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and CD yields may show a volatile trend [26]. 3.2 Weekly Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Long - term Bond Funds' Duration**: On June 27, the median of the 10 - day rolling average duration of long - term bond funds was 3.91 years, a slight increase from the previous period [31]. - **Institutional Bond - Buying Behavior** - **Large Banks' Bond - Buying**: In the past week, large banks bought 28.7 billion yuan of national bonds (previous week: 51.7 billion yuan), a slight decline [31]. - **Interest - rate Bond Buyers**: Funds, rural commercial banks, and other products are the main buyers. Rural commercial banks' net buying power has significantly rebounded. In the past week, funds' net buying of interest - rate bonds was 89 billion yuan (previous week: 141.3 billion yuan), rural commercial banks' net buying was 47.3 billion yuan (previous week: - 127.2 billion yuan), and other products' net buying was 23.6 billion yuan (previous week: 42.8 billion yuan) [31]. - **CD Buyers**: Large banks, money market funds, wealth management products, and insurance companies are the main buyers. The net buying power of large banks and money market funds has significantly increased, while that of wealth management products and other products has decreased. In the past week, large banks' net buying of CDs was 73.2 billion yuan (previous week: 33.7 billion yuan), money market funds' net buying was 57.3 billion yuan (previous week: 41.6 billion yuan), wealth management products' net buying was 48.4 billion yuan (previous week: 80.9 billion yuan), and insurance companies' net buying was 23.5 billion yuan (previous week: 28 billion yuan) [31]. - **Credit Bond Buyers**: The net buying scale of major non - bank buyers of credit bonds has slightly declined. For credit bonds over 5 years, the net buying scale of non - bank buyers remained basically the same. Overall, funds, wealth management products, other products, money market funds, and insurance companies all participated in buying credit bonds, showing a balanced situation. For credit bonds over 5 years, insurance companies, wealth management products, and other products had strong buying power [31]. - **Secondary Bond Buyers**: The overall net buying demand is not strong. The net buying power of secondary bonds within 2 years has declined, and wealth management products are still the main net buyers. The demand for secondary bonds between 2 - 5 years and over 5 years has also declined significantly [31]. - **Institutional Leverage Level**: In the past week, the bond market leverage ratio was 107.93%, a continued increase from the previous period [32]. - **Key Spreads**: On June 27, the 10Y CDB - 10Y national bond term spread was 3.63bp, and the spread was converging; the 1Y CDB - R001 spread was 5.41BP, and the spread between short - term bond yields and funds prices widened slightly [34].
机械出口链行业点评报告:降息预期起,出海龙头舞
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-29 07:43
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the recovery of demand in European markets and emerging markets, while the trade friction with the US is expected to stabilize demand due to the nature of the products being essential and less price-sensitive [1] - The report indicates that the sentiment in the export chain is likely to improve due to positive signals regarding tariffs and the anticipated interest rate cuts in the US [4][1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming CPI data on July 15, which could influence the timing of potential interest rate cuts [4] Summary by Sections Export Direction - Focus on the recovery of demand in European lines and growth in emerging markets [1] - Trade friction with the US is expected to stabilize demand, with tariffs easing and essential products maintaining steady orders [1] Stock Price Review - As of June 28, 31 export companies have shown an average stock price increase of 0.7% since April 2, with about 32% of companies recovering to their April 2 levels [2] - Some companies, like TaoTao Automotive and Spring Power, have significantly exceeded their April 2 highs, while Giant Star Technology still has considerable valuation recovery potential [2] Key Events and Policy Expectations - Positive signals regarding tariffs are expected to alleviate sentiment pressures in the export chain [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with a 74.8% probability of the first cut occurring in September [4] - The acceleration of tax reform is anticipated to boost terminal demand and corporate CAPEx investment [4] Investment Recommendations - For North America, the report recommends focusing on companies like Giant Star Technology, TaoTao Automotive, and Spring Power, among others [4] - For non-US markets, it suggests companies with both cyclical and growth potential, including Huadong Cable and Sany Heavy Industry [4]
可控核聚变行业点评报告:可控核聚变产业进程加速,重点关注核心设备供应商
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-06-27 13:03
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is experiencing accelerated progress, with increasing attention on core equipment suppliers due to recent industrial and financing catalysts [1] - Shanghai Superconductor's IPO application has been accepted, which is expected to accelerate the industrialization process of fusion. The company aims to raise 1.2 billion for the production of second-generation high-temperature superconducting tapes, with an expected annual output of 6,000 kilometers once fully operational [1] - China’s nuclear fusion roadmap indicates significant advancements, with the CFEDR engineering pile expected to be completed in the 2030s and the PFPP prototype power station in the 2050s [2] - Investment suggestions focus on core equipment suppliers benefiting from the ITER project delivery and new experimental pile construction, including companies like Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Guoguang Electric, and Xuguang Electronics [2] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is gaining momentum with significant financing activities and industrial advancements [1] - Shanghai Superconductor is one of the few manufacturers capable of producing over 1,000 kilometers of second-generation high-temperature superconducting tapes annually, holding over 80% market share domestically [1] Technological Progress - The current phase is the engineering feasibility verification stage, with a clear path from "fusion reaction" to "engineering" [2] - The CRAFT project is a key technological guarantee for the CFEDR engineering pile, which has achieved 70% overall progress [2] Investment Recommendations - Focus on midstream equipment suppliers and upstream material providers that are expected to benefit from the ongoing developments in the nuclear fusion sector [2]