Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 703 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 127 million yuan, up 40.27% year-on-year [1][6]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to stable growth in both domestic and international business segments, with significant contributions from the aerospace engine components sector [6][7]. - The company has successfully expanded its production capacity for key aerospace engine components, which is expected to support future growth [7]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 703 million yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 29% projected for 2025 [9][17]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 182 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 44% increase from 2024 [9][17]. - The gross margin for aerospace products improved to 39.3% in 2025, indicating enhanced profitability [17]. Business Segments - The international aerospace engine components business generated 367 million yuan in revenue, accounting for 52.23% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 36.04% [6][7]. - The domestic aerospace engine business achieved revenue of 279 million yuan, up 29.97% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 35.35% [6][7]. - The company also reported a decline in revenue from its medical orthopedic joint business, which fell by 11.55% to 47.81 million yuan due to changes in procurement policies by multinational companies [6][7]. Capacity Expansion and Incentives - The company completed the construction of key production facilities for aerospace engine components, enhancing its production capabilities [7]. - A stock incentive plan was announced, aiming to grant 5.5 million restricted shares to 15 individuals, which is expected to motivate key personnel and support performance growth [7]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a PE ratio of 24.9 in 2025, decreasing to 17.1 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [9][17]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in net profit margins, with a net profit margin of 20.2% expected in 2025 [17].

淘宝直播盛典点评 品质直播新趋势，淘宝直播品质升级投入长期增长 消费品/商业 2025 年 3 月 31 日淘宝直播盛典在杭州举办，此次大会以品质直播为核心主旨， 在当前直播电商行业增速放缓但高质量用户保持稳健增长的行业背景下，品质 成为重要竞争要素，淘宝直播作为国内领先的直播电商平台 2025 年也将进一步 升级品质直播，围绕用户、主播、货品、内容和营销开展品质化运营，目标在 2025 年 GMV 及用户同比+50%，投入超过 110 亿平台预算和千亿流量助力直 播增长。我们看好品质直播的长期发展潜力，建议投资者积极关注。 风险提示：宏观经济风险；行业竞争加剧；直播电商政策风险。 证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 04 月 01 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | 占比% | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 133 | 2.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 1112.4 | 1.3 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 1019.7 | 1.3 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in revenue and profit in 2024, with total revenue reaching 13.59 billion yuan, up 67.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.17 billion yuan, up 52.6% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has successfully implemented cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, resulting in a notable decrease in gold production costs [6]. - The internationalization strategy has made significant progress with the acquisition of Osino, adding 127.2 tons of gold resources and expected annual production of 5 tons of gold [6]. - The report projects continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, with estimates of 2.89 billion yuan, 3.05 billion yuan, and 4.30 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a strong outlook for the company [6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 13.59 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 67% [2]. - The operating profit for 2024 was 3.18 billion yuan, representing a 52% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 2.17 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 53% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 0.78 yuan, with a projected EPS of 1.04 yuan for 2025 [2]. Production and Cost Efficiency - The company reported gold production and sales of 8.04 tons and 8.05 tons in 2024, marking increases of 14.7% and 9.7% year-on-year respectively [6]. - The cost of gold production decreased significantly to 145 yuan per gram in 2024, down 31 yuan per gram year-on-year, while the selling price increased to 550 yuan per gram [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18.5 for 2025, decreasing to 12.4 by 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [2][12]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to decline from 4.1 in 2024 to 2.8 in 2027, indicating potential for value appreciation [2][12].

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 03 月 31 日 "预期共振"自适应行业轮动模型四月最新推荐 ——行业轮动策略月报 20250331 为提供不同市场环境下的行业轮动解决方案，我们对原来的 "预期共振"模型进 行了迭代升级。具体来说，我们引入了自适应机制，最后构建了一个涉及景气 度、量价指标、分析师预期指标的自适应调整模型。后续，我们将对"预期共 振"自适应行业轮动进行月度跟踪，敬请投资者持续关注！ 1、策略逻辑 在指标方面，我们基于景气度、量价指标、分析师预期三个维度构建了十二个 明细行业轮动指标。在模型方面，为解决市场机会与轮动指标不适配的问题，我们 提出了一个基于分析师预期和行业景气共振情况，动态调整景气度和量价指标权重 的自适应模型。 2、策略表现 一、策略核心逻辑 近年来，行业 Beta 已经成为了权益投资的重要考虑因素。而不同阶段的行 业轮动现象往往又由不同的因素所驱动形成，这在无形中增加了基于量化模型 构建行业轮动策略的难度。为此，我们构建了一个"预期共振"自适应行业轮 动策略（见图 1），其中主要涉及三个维度的指标和自适应调整模型。(详细构建 方案可见"预期共振"自适应行业轮动模型） ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 03 月 31 日 猪价季节性回落，母猪产能环比微增 生猪养殖行业 202502 月报点评 消费品/农林牧渔 2 月产业端供给压力缓于预期以及标肥价差引导产业供给后置，猪价季节性走 弱、但整体强于市场预期。行业仍处产能释放期，而上半年猪肉消费疲软，预 计猪价整体承压，母猪产能或维持弱去化趋势。考虑到 25 年生猪供给增幅有限， 行业成本方差较大，优质猪企或仍可实现可观利润，持续修复资产负债表。重 点推荐牧原股份、温氏股份等，建议关注神农集团、东瑞股份等。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 23EPS | 24EPS | 24PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 002714.SZ | 211.6 | -0.78 | 3.27 | 11.8 | 3.0 | 强烈推荐 | | 温氏股份 | 300498.SZ | 110.9 | -0.96 | 1.67 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 强烈推荐 | 资料来源：公司数据，招商证券 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][6][7]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in Q4 revenue and profit, with revenue and net profit down by 14.77% and 23.12% year-on-year, respectively. This decline was attributed to the timing of revenue recognition, reduced marketing expenses during the off-season, and decreased consumer stockpiling demand [1][6][7]. - For 2025, the company has set a revenue growth target of 8%, expecting profit growth to outpace revenue growth. The company aims to strengthen its competitive advantages and improve channel management and internal efficiency [1][6][7]. - The current market expectations are low, and the company's valuation is at a historical low. The company has sufficient cash reserves and plans to significantly increase dividends to enhance shareholder returns [1][6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2.387 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 799 million yuan, also down by 3% year-on-year. The Q4 revenue was 425 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline [5][7]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 50.99%, with a net margin of 33.49%. The gross margin in Q4 was 43.38%, impacted by revenue decline and rigid production costs [5][6][7]. - The company plans to maintain a gross margin of 51.8% in 2025, with operating costs expected to grow by 6.25% [6][7]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with the pickled vegetable segment showing promising performance. The revenue from pickled vegetables increased by 2.2% year-on-year, while the revenue from radishes decreased significantly [5][6]. - The company is implementing a strategy to reclaim market share through product improvements and new product launches, particularly in the condiment and prepared food sectors [6][7]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to increase its dividend payout significantly, with a dividend of 485 million yuan planned for 2025, reflecting a payout ratio of 60.6% [5][6][7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 0.76 yuan and 0.77 yuan, respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times for 2025 [1][6][7].

Manufacturing Sector - March Manufacturing PMI recorded at 50.5, up 0.3 from the previous month, indicating a slight recovery but below market expectations[1] - New orders and new export orders increased by 0.7 and 0.4 percentage points respectively, but new export orders remain below the expansion threshold at 49[1] - Key indicators such as backlogs, raw material purchase prices, and employment indices declined, suggesting potential risks in export performance if domestic demand does not strengthen[1] Services Sector - Services PMI rose to 50.3 in March, showing a slight recovery but still below the previous year's peak of 52.4[2] - The business activity expectation index reached 57.5, indicating optimism among service sector enterprises despite some declines in new orders and employment indices[2] - Production services showed resilience, while consumer services continued to decline, reflecting a mixed performance across the sector[2] Construction Sector - Construction PMI increased to 53.4, marking a 0.7 rise from the previous month, supported by improved weather conditions and funding availability[2] - Despite the increase, current construction demand remains low compared to historical averages, with new orders and employment indices showing significant declines[2] - The business activity expectation index for construction reached 55.3, indicating positive sentiment, but the overall performance remains contingent on real estate investment recovery[2] Economic Outlook - The first quarter GDP growth is projected to reach around 5.2%, although the performance is slightly weaker compared to last year[2] - Anticipated global trade contraction due to U.S. tariff measures may further pressure China's export performance in the second quarter[2] - Historical patterns suggest that additional economic policies may be implemented in Q3, potentially leading to a "N-shaped" economic trajectory for the year[2] Risks - The speed of domestic demand recovery remains a key risk factor, with potential implications for overall economic performance if it does not meet expectations[3]

银行研思录之六 大行注资如何影响流动性？-基于资产负债的推演 总量研究/银行 近期，建行、中行、交行、邮储发布定增公告，计划融资 5200 亿，其中财政部 出资 5000 亿。相关政策背景和意义我们在报告《大行注资落地解读：夯实资本 谋发展，溢价发行顾平衡》有分析。 市场除了关心注资对银行和经济影响外，还关心本次注资对银行间市场和资本 市场流动性的影响，本篇专题尝试从宏观金融资产负债表视角进行推演，背后 还涉及货币创造的理解，供投资者参考。 ❑ 风险提示：政策力度低于预期；经济回暖低于预期。 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 03 月 31 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 9412.5 | 10.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 9302.9 | 11.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 1.9 11.5 26.6 相对表现 1.2 5.8 15.4 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Apr/24 Jul/24 ...

Group 1: Market Participation - As of March 30, 2025, 214, 108, and 16 state-owned enterprises (SOEs) participated in market value management special actions, published market value management systems, and released valuation enhancement plans, respectively, accounting for approximately 15% of all announced enterprises[2] - The participation rate of SOEs in market value management actions is significantly higher than the overall A-share market, with SOEs representing less than 8% of the A-share market[2] - Over half of the SOEs have issued relevant announcements regarding market value management, indicating a notable increase in participation willingness compared to the initial three months of the special actions[9] Group 2: Value Management Systems - 21.8% of SOEs have officially announced market value management systems, while 5.3% plan to establish such systems, demonstrating a proactive approach to value management[14] - Small-cap SOEs with negative net asset values show a higher enthusiasm for establishing market value management systems compared to the market average[14] - The content of these systems includes measures such as share buybacks, cash dividends, and enhanced public opinion monitoring and response strategies[14] Group 3: Valuation Enhancement Plans - More than 50% of long-term negative net asset SOEs have released valuation enhancement plans, which is higher than other ownership types[20] - The proportion of long-term negative net asset SOEs is close to 8%, exceeding the overall negative asset ratio of the A-share market by 4 percentage points[20] - Valuation enhancement plans focus on core business operations, market expectations, and information disclosure, with some companies committing to increase dividend payouts from 30% to 40%[20] Group 4: Economic Indicators - In the first two months of 2025, the industrial added value of state-controlled enterprises grew by 5.9% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment increased by 7.0%, surpassing the national average of 4.1%[24] - The total revenue and profit of state-owned enterprises for January and February 2025 were 12.5 trillion yuan and 0.63 trillion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.3% and 0.1%[24] - The asset-liability ratio of state-owned enterprises stood at 64.9% as of the end of February 2025[24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for several key companies in the industry, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [2][49]. Core Insights - The industry is currently experiencing a "distress period" for liquor companies, with clear signals of stock price bottoms emerging. Although demand has not yet shown signs of reversal, the trend of supply contraction is evident. The market's supply-demand relationship is improving, and stock prices may lead the fundamentals by 2-3 quarters before bottoming out [10][49]. - Companies are adopting more pragmatic and stable operational strategies, focusing on inventory control and price stability. This approach has led to improved perceptions among distributors, despite overall weak demand [8][9]. Summary by Sections Overall Viewpoint - Demand is weak but meets expectations, with improved distributor sentiment due to inventory control and price stability. The industry is in a phase of adjustment, with companies learning from past cycles and focusing on mid-range products to align with current consumer trends [8][9]. Key Listed Company Feedback 1. **Wuliangye**: Undergoing comprehensive reforms, including inventory control and establishing new sales platforms to enhance market reach [13][14]. 2. **Luzhou Laojiao**: Maintaining a strong digital strategy, with better-than-expected sales performance and low inventory levels [15][17]. 3. **Shanxi Fenjiu**: Exhibiting excellent operational quality and strategic capabilities, with a focus on stable growth and market expansion [20][22]. 4. **Shui Jing Fang**: Launching a dual-brand strategy to enhance brand positioning and consumer engagement [25][29]. 5. **Jiangsu Yanjing**: Aiming for national expansion with strong performance in local markets and a focus on high-quality products [37][39]. 6. **Gu Qing**: Adapting product strategies to meet market demands, with continued growth in sales despite increased competition [44]. Channel and Industry Expert Feedback - Experts indicate that the liquor industry is in a bottoming phase, with expectations of continued adjustments in 2025. Companies are focusing on strategic reforms and risk management to navigate the current market challenges [45][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the bottom is being established, with potential for stock price reversals. Key recommendations include Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, among others, based on their improved market dynamics and operational efficiencies [49].