证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 降准降息推进稳楼市，"好房子"时代头部品牌受益 建材行业定期报告 中游制造/建材 本周（2025/5/5-2025/5/10）建材动态：水泥需求有所减弱，价格回落延续； 浮法玻璃市场价格下滑，出货普遍较弱；玻纤中，无碱粗纱市场价格调后暂 稳，电子纱市场稳价为主。周内降息释放积极信号，"好房子"建设要求利 好消费建材头部品牌。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 96 | 1.9 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 769.4 | 0.9 | | 流通市值（十亿 | 704.0 | 0.9 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 8.5 -6.1 0.6 相对表现 4.2 0.2 -4.4 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 May/24 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 (%) 建材 沪深300 相关报告 1、《建材行业定期报告—提振内需 预期加强，地产企稳助力估值修复》 2025-04-22 2、《建材行业定期报告—提振内需 预 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 保利发展（600048.SH） 多措并举盘活存量资源，定向可转债获证监会批复 总量研究/房地产 24 年公司实现累计归母净利润 50 亿元，同比下降 58.6%，与业绩快报基本一 致，判断公司后续营收增速或承压，结算毛利率或逐步筑底；销售排名保持行业 第一，新增投资保持聚焦；多措并举盘活存量资源，土储结构持续优化；融资成 本持续下降，直融占比提升，可转债已获证监会同意注册批复；资产经营稳步发 展，物业服务规模持续扩大。预计 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 0.43、0.44 和 0.55 元，认为公司具备穿越周期的能力，若行业右侧出现其仍是竞争格局改善的核 心受益标的，且随着公司逐步盘活存量资源，市场对公司减值压力的担忧或也 有望缓释，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 q 24 年公司实现归母净利润 50 亿元，同比下降 58.6%，与业绩快报基本一 致，判断公司后续营收增速或承压，结算毛利率或逐步筑底。公司 24 年营 收/营业利润/归母净利分别为 3117 亿/151 亿/50 亿，同比分别-10.1%/- 37.7%/-58.6%。在行业下 ...

逆势增长 alpha 凸显，三驾马车共驱长线成长 TMT 及中小盘/电子 公司近期公布 24 年年报、25 年一季报以及上半年业绩展望：1）24 年营收 2688 亿，同比增长 15.91%，归母净利 133.66 亿，同比增长 22.03%；2） 25 年第一季度营收 618 亿，同比增长 17.9%，归母净利 30.44 亿，同比增长 23.17%；3）展望上半年业绩区间为 64.75-67.45 亿，对应增长区间为 20-25%。 此外，公司还发布了 2025 年股票股权激励计划草案。结合公司管理层业绩说 明会，我们更新公司观点如下： ❑ 25 年上半年业绩逆势展望 20-25%，积极应对关税，全年增长动能仍确定。 公司展望上半年归母净利区间为 64.75-67.45 亿，同比 20-25%增长，扣非 51.91-57.11 亿，同比 4.67-15.15%增长，这在当前中美关税摩擦不确定背 景下，实属不易。在苹果业务方面，公司短期通过提前对美版手机的库存 准备和跨期生产调节来保障本土手机组装业务开工率，同时亦通过输出模 组件形式来支持印度等海外手机产能；而对于耳机、手表等非手机业务， 公司亦在越南有充 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company achieved stable revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue of 4.612 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 801 million yuan, up 6.44% year-on-year [5][6] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a significant recovery with a revenue of 1.074 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.31%, and a net profit of 170 million yuan, up 53.85% year-on-year [5][6] - The company has shown strong performance in its superconducting business, with notable increases in revenue from superconducting materials and magnets due to heightened market demand [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 33.55%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 18.99%, up 0.61 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow to 5.372 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding net profit of 936 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17% [6][12] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for 2024 was 12.5%, with expectations to rise to 13.6% in 2025 [2][13] Product Performance Summary - High-end titanium alloy materials generated revenue of 2.752 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 38.67%, an increase of 4.26 percentage points year-on-year [5] - Superconducting wire revenue reached 1.304 billion yuan, up 32.41% year-on-year, although the gross margin decreased to 30.22% [5] - High-performance high-temperature alloy materials saw a revenue decline to 327 million yuan, down 31.02% year-on-year, but with a gross margin improvement to 22.25% [5] Cost Control and Profitability - The company has effectively controlled costs, with selling expenses decreasing by 8.51% and financial expenses down by 21.30% in 2024 [5] - R&D expenses increased by 6.51% to 351 million yuan, indicating a commitment to maintaining technological leadership [5] Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 936 million yuan in 2025, 1.077 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.223 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 35, 30, and 27 [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 2.932 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.62%. The net profit is expected to reach 581 million yuan, a 0.84% increase year-on-year [1][6] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 653 million yuan, down 3.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 135 million yuan, down 9.05% year-on-year, indicating short-term pressure on performance [1][6] - The company is focusing on expanding its production capacity in the aerospace materials sector, with significant growth in construction projects [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.932 billion yuan, with a breakdown of revenue sources: - Basic materials: 1.219 billion yuan (down 7.83%) - Aerospace finished products: 1.351 billion yuan (up 9.09%) - Non-aerospace finished products: 180 million yuan (up 44.63%) - Processing services: 159 million yuan (up 97.25%) [1][6] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 29.64%, a decrease of 1.91 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The financial forecast for 2025 estimates revenue between 2.99 billion and 3.22 billion yuan, with net profit expected to be between 590 million and 640 million yuan [1][6] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is China Aviation Materials Research Institute, holding a 60.14% stake in the company [2] Market Performance - The current stock price is 56.9 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 25.6 billion yuan [2]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 海信家电（000921.SZ） 外销高增，业绩超预期 消费品/家电 公司 25Q1 营业收入+6%，达到 248 亿元；归母净利润+15%，达到 11 亿元， 超出市场预期。 ❑ 风险提示：原材料价格大幅上涨、地产竣工不及预期、以旧换新不及预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 85600 | 92746 | 101495 | 110461 | 120323 | | 同比增长 | 15% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 5248 | 5679 | 6418 | 7480 | 8650 | | 同比增长 | 56% | 8% | 13% | 17% | 16% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 2837 | 3348 | 3750 | 4328 | 4966 | | 同比增长 | 98% | 18% | 12% | 15% | ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 中航西飞（000768.SZ） 25Q1 利润端稳步增长，盈利能力有所提升 中游制造/军工 25Q1 公司实现营收 84.38 亿元，同比-0.20%；实现归母净利润 2.89 亿元，同 比+5.97%；实现扣非归母净利润 2.98 亿元，同比+7.45%。 目标估值：NA 当前股价：25.63 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 2781 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 2773 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 71.3 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 71.1 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 7.7 | | ROE（TTM） | 4.9 | | 资产负债率 | 71.3% | | 主要股东 中国航空工业集团有限公司 | | | 主要股东持股比例 | 38.0% | 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 8 -19 5 相对表现 4 -13 -0 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 May/24 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 (%) 中航西飞 沪深300 ❑ 风险提示：新型号研制交 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 钨行业点评报告 钨配额减量，钨价持续上涨 周期/金属及材料 q 风险提示：原材料波动风险、宏观政策不及预期、下游需求不及预期。 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 235 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3997.6 | 4.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3716.4 | 4.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 11.5 -1.3 11.8 相对表现 7.2 5.0 6.8 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 May/24 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 (%) 金属及材料 沪深300 相关报告 1、《可控核聚变行业点评报告—自 主可控且有显著增量预期，行业进入 发展关键期》2025-05-12 推荐（维持） 行业规模 刘伟洁 S1090519040002 liuweijie@cmschina.com.cn 贾宏坤 S1090522090001 jiahongkun@cmschina.com.cn 行业点评报告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 3.858 billion yuan, representing an 11% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 475 million yuan, up 59% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 259 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 32%, and commits to maintaining a cash dividend ratio of no less than 30% over the next three years [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 16.542 billion yuan in 2024, a 6.7% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 800 million yuan, a 32% increase year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.316 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of approximately 26.7%, and a net profit of 191 million yuan, showing significant improvement from previous losses [5] - The company’s revenue from service robots and high-end smart appliances reached 8.082 billion yuan and 8.061 billion yuan respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 5.22% and 10.87% [5] - The company’s comprehensive gross margin increased by 2 percentage points in 2024, with a net profit margin rising by 3.7 percentage points to 12.3% [5] Market Position and Growth - The company has seen strong growth in overseas sales, particularly in the European market, where revenue increased by 12.6% year-on-year, with significant growth in key markets like France and Italy [5] - The company’s market share in online sales of vacuum cleaners rebounded to over 26% in Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, driven by new product launches [5] - The company has established over 8,000 offline outlets nationwide, enhancing its market presence [5] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.814 billion yuan, 2.310 billion yuan, and 2.633 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 14, and 12 [5][6] - Revenue projections for the years 2025 to 2027 are 19.649 billion yuan, 22.526 billion yuan, and 25.757 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 19%, 15%, and 14% respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on chemical materials related to robotics, particularly modified plastics [5]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical sector showed a weekly increase of 2.07%, outperforming the Shanghai A-share index by 0.15 percentage points [2]. - The report highlights significant price increases in liquid chlorine (+134.15%) and polymer MDI (+5.02%) among other chemicals [4]. - It recommends attention to companies like Dawn Co. and Huitong Co. for their potential in the robotics field [5]. Industry Performance - The chemical sector's dynamic PE is at 27.29 times, lower than the average PE of 12.39 times since 2015 [2]. - Among 28 sub-industries, five showed the highest growth: fluorochemicals and refrigerants (+5.67%), other rubber products (+4.32%), paint and ink manufacturing (+4.01%), other fibers (+3.96%), and daily chemicals (+3.59%) [3][15]. - The top five stocks by weekly increase were: Yuzhong Three Gorges A (+35.57%), Hengtian Hailong (+24.82%), Lingpai Technology (+17.55%), Danhua Technology (+15.19%), and Jinpu Titanium Industry (+13.5%) [2][12]. Price and Spread Trends - The report lists the top five products with the highest weekly price increases: liquid chlorine (+134.15%), polymer MDI (+5.02%), sulfur (+3.9%), automotive urea granules (+3.59%), and urea (+3.46%) [4][19]. - The highest price spread increases were seen in ethylene spread (+2075%), propylene (methanol-based) spread (+210.26%), and melamine spread (+149.41%) [4][36]. Inventory Changes - Significant inventory changes were noted, with polyester filament increasing by 24.59% and ethylene decreasing by 16.27% [5][56].