证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 02 日 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1）中美元首会晤；中美经贸团队通过吉隆坡磋商达成成果共识。此次元首 会晤及经贸谈判成果符合我们预期，即取得框架性成果及短期议题成 果、战略议题实操层面成果。1）框架层面，双方达成延缓部分措施一 年、缓和关系的共识；2）短期议题成果方面，双方就芬太尼关税、扩大 农产品贸易议题取得共识；3）战略议题（出口管制、歧视性收费等）方 面，双方在实操层面（而非原则层面）达成缓和共识，各自暂缓限制及 反制措施一年。双方的成果体现了议题对等性原则。另一方面，此次中 美会晤达成的一年暂缓期，从时间上看将延续至明年美国中期选举前， 正好与特朗普政府在选举前稳定美国经济和市场预期的需求相符。考虑 到美国国内政治干扰，以及本周特朗普与亚洲盟友互动、G7 成立关键矿 产生产联盟等，美国或将利用缓和期以弥补自身产业链漏洞、进一步协 调盟友关系，为下一轮博弈积蓄筹码；建议仍需关注美方政策变化风险 和后续大国科技经贸博弈。 2）特朗普亚洲之行，与日本、韩国等达成贸易投资及关键矿产协议。受美 日、美韩经贸投资协议进展推动，本周日韩市场领涨，本周日经指数上 涨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for the company [1][3][7] Core Views - The company is facing growth pressure due to weak industry demand and strategic adjustments, but it is actively seizing opportunities from core system upgrades and the domestic innovation window [1][7] - The long-term development of the company's main business is viewed positively, leading to the strong buy rating [1][7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 72.81 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. However, a decline of 10% is expected in 2024, followed by a further decline of 9% in 2025 [2][14] - Operating profit for 2023 is estimated at 14.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 29%. A decrease of 27% is anticipated in 2024, but a recovery of 12% growth is expected in 2025 [2][14] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is projected at 14.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 31%. A decline of 27% is expected in 2024, followed by a recovery of 12% growth in 2025 [2][14] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 0.75 yuan, with a projected decline to 0.55 yuan in 2024, and a gradual recovery to 0.61 yuan in 2025 [2][14] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 41.8 for 2023, increasing to 57.1 in 2024, and then decreasing to 51.2 in 2025 [2][14] Business Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 3.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.66%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 455 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.16% [7] - The company is focusing on improving operational quality during the industry downturn, with a significant improvement in cash flow and a 32.39% year-on-year increase in operating cash flow [7] - The company has made progress in launching key products, with several projects signed and implemented in the securities industry, indicating a positive outlook for future growth [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 2.266 billion yuan, up 124% year-on-year and 82% quarter-on-quarter, and net profit of 460 million yuan, up 225% year-on-year and 91.6% quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with multiple advanced process machines entering mass production after customer validation [1][7]. - The outlook for 2026 is positive, with a substantial increase in contract liabilities indicating strong order growth [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised upwards to 6.511 billion, 8.561 billion, and 11.035 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of 1.053 billion, 1.661 billion, and 2.327 billion yuan [3][7]. - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 81.4, 51.6, and 36.8 respectively [3][7]. - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 9.969 billion yuan in 2023 to 30.380 billion yuan by 2027 [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Changsha Bank [5] Core Views - The bank's performance shows a slowdown in asset expansion, with total interest-earning assets growing by 11.69% year-on-year as of Q3 2025, while loans increased by 11.65%, indicating a cautious approach amid risk exposure [2][3] - Risk exposure pressure appears to have eased, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.18% and a provision coverage ratio of 311.88%, suggesting a solid safety cushion [2][3] - Non-interest income remains robust, growing by 15.03% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in other non-interest income [3][4] Summary by Sections Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, operating income, pre-provision operating profit (PPOP), and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 1.29%, 1.26%, and 6.00% year-on-year, respectively [1][13] - The bank's total assets reached 1,243.7 billion, with total loans at 606.5 billion and total deposits at 763.4 billion [13] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income increased by 15.03% year-on-year, with other non-interest income growing by 16.84% [3][14] - The bank has focused on realizing gains from asset management, with a cumulative realized income of 919 million in the first three quarters [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.18%, with a slight increase of 1 basis point, while the attention rate decreased by 6 basis points to 3.25% [2][4] - The provision coverage ratio improved by 2.17 percentage points, indicating a stronger buffer against potential loan losses [2][4] Capital and Shareholder Information - The bank's total market capitalization is 38.5 billion, with a dynamic dividend yield of 4.61% based on the latest closing price [5][4] - Major shareholder is the Changsha Municipal Finance Bureau, holding 16.82% of shares [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 11 月 02 日 1-10 月土地累计成交建面同比降幅扩大 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 10 月 30 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 10 月 30 日） | 新房（10 | 月 | 1 日-10 月 | 30 日） | 二手房（10 | 月 | 1 日-10 月 | 30 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 9 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 9 月 | | 样本城市 | -26% | -扩大 | -23 PCT | 样本城市 | -21% | 转负 | -35 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | -36% | 转负 | -45 PCT | 一线城市 | -26% | 转负 | -51 PCT | | （4 城） | | | | （2 城） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the Apple supply chain, emphasizing opportunities for low-position investments in high-quality companies within the fruit chain [4]. Core Insights - Apple's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $102.5 billion and a net profit of $27.47 billion, marking significant year-over-year growth [1][41]. - The company anticipates a strong Q4, projecting a revenue increase of 10-12% year-over-year, driven by robust iPhone sales and service growth [3][46]. - The report highlights the beginning of a three-year cycle of accelerated hardware innovation, particularly in AI, which is expected to enhance the value of the supply chain [4][32]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Apple reported Q3 revenue of $102.5 billion, a 7.9% increase year-over-year, and an EPS of $1.85, surpassing market expectations [1][41]. - The net profit for the quarter was $27.47 billion, reflecting an 86.4% year-over-year increase [1]. Business Segment Performance - iPhone revenue was $49.03 billion, up 6.1% year-over-year, despite supply constraints for certain models [2][42]. - Mac revenue reached $8.73 billion, a 12.7% increase, driven by strong demand for MacBook Air [2][34]. - Service revenue hit a record $28.75 billion, growing 15.1% year-over-year, with significant contributions from various service categories [2][44]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied by region, with the Americas and Europe showing strong increases, while Greater China experienced a decline of 3.6% due to supply limitations [2][22]. Q4 Outlook - Management expects Q4 revenue to be the best in Apple's history, with iPhone revenue projected to grow in double digits [3][46]. - The anticipated gross margin for Q4 is between 47% and 48%, despite rising storage costs [3][46]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a focus on undervalued companies within the Apple supply chain, particularly those benefiting from AI innovations [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 5.0 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million yuan, up 6.5% year-on-year [6]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 1.95 billion yuan, marking a 26.0% increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 200 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% [6]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its traditional business while actively pursuing opportunities in the smart automotive sector, with new product developments driving growth [6]. - The company has initiated a business integration with its subsidiary, Kobot Intelligent Technology, to enhance its position in the global smart industry and expand its product offerings [6]. - The company is also expanding its international presence, having established a high-standard automotive electronics production base in Europe and deepening collaborations with global partners [6]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 23.5% and a net margin of 10.4% in Q3 2025. The overall expense ratio for the same period was 14.6% [6]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 904 million yuan, 1.15 billion yuan, and 1.5 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7][22]. - The company’s total revenue is forecasted to grow from 4.625 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.526 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25% [7][22]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is strategically positioned in the automotive smart technology sector, focusing on core technology breakthroughs and product iterations to deliver long-term value to investors and customers [6]. - The company has successfully integrated its resources to enhance innovation capabilities and product competitiveness, launching several new products that are expected to become significant growth drivers [6]. - The company is committed to deepening technical collaboration and industry partnerships to accelerate the development of its automotive smart products [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong recommendation for Qilu Bank, indicating a positive outlook for the company's performance [6]. Core Insights - Qilu Bank's total assets grew by 16.55% year-on-year as of Q3 2025, with loans increasing by 15.20%. Corporate loans showed strong growth, accelerating to 23.09% [2][3]. - The net interest margin (NIM) for Q3 2025 was estimated at 1.53%, reflecting a 4 basis points increase from the previous quarter, driven by improved funding costs [3]. - Non-interest income saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 24.66% in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to a drop in net fee income [4][35]. Summary by Sections Performance Metrics - For the first three quarters of 2025, Qilu Bank reported a revenue growth of 4.63%, a pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) growth of 4.01%, and a net profit growth of 15.14% [1][19]. - The bank's cumulative performance metrics indicate a robust growth trajectory compared to industry peers [5]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income decreased by 24.66% year-on-year, with net fee income turning negative at -1.41% and other non-interest income declining by 38.13% [4][35]. Interest Margin and Asset Quality - The bank's NIM showed resilience, with a quarter-on-quarter improvement attributed to a reduction in funding costs [3]. - As of Q3 2025, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.09%, with a provision coverage ratio of 351.43%, indicating a solid buffer against potential loan losses [3]. Capital and Shareholder Information - Qilu Bank's total market capitalization is approximately 37.2 billion yuan, with a current share price of 6.05 yuan and a return on equity (ROE) of 10.5% [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for Jiangsu Bank (600919.SH) [5] Core Views - Jiangsu Bank continues to experience rapid growth in scale, with total assets increasing by 27.8% year-on-year as of Q3 2025, making it the fastest expanding bank among A-share listed banks [2][3] - The bank's net interest margin has shown signs of stabilization, with a measured net interest margin of 1.59% in Q3 2025, a slight decrease of 2 basis points from the previous quarter, indicating a narrowing decline [2][3] - Non-interest income growth has rebounded, with net fee income increasing by 20% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to a low base from the previous year [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Jiangsu Bank reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 7.83%, PPOP growth of 5.91%, and net profit growth of 8.32% [1][14] - The bank's total assets reached approximately 4,469 billion, with total liabilities growing to 4,138 billion, reflecting a robust expansion strategy [14] Non-Interest Income - The growth rate of net fee income has significantly improved, with a year-on-year increase of 20% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by a low comparative base from the previous year [2][33] Interest Margin and Asset Quality - The net interest margin for Q3 2025 was measured at 1.59%, with a reduction in the decline rate compared to previous quarters, indicating a potential stabilization in interest income [2][3] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.84%, with a slight increase in the attention rate to 1.28% [3] Capital and Shareholder Returns - As of Q3 2025, the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved to 8.61%, reflecting a positive trend in capital management [3] - The bank has maintained a dividend payout ratio of no less than 30%, highlighting its commitment to shareholder returns [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for Suzhou Bank [5] Core Views - The bank's performance shows steady improvement with revenue, PPOP, and net profit growth rates of 2.02%, 7.74%, and 7.12% respectively for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a positive trend compared to the first half of 2025 [1][2] - The bank is expanding its asset base, with total assets growing by 14.6% year-on-year as of Q3 2025, supported by a 12.9% increase in deposits [2] - The net interest margin has stabilized and slightly increased to 1.34% in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decrease in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the bank's total revenue reached 9,477 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.02% [12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 4,652 million yuan, reflecting a 7.12% increase year-on-year [12] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income growth has declined, with a 0.5% increase in fee income year-on-year, and a significant drop of 14.6% in other non-interest income [2][31] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.83% as of Q3 2025, with a coverage ratio of 420.59%, indicating a solid asset quality [3][12] Capital and Shareholders - The bank's capital adequacy ratio is robust, supported by the completion of the convertible bond issuance, which enhances the capital buffer for business development [3][5] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated at 5,477 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1% [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for 2025 is projected at 7.1, while the price-to-book ratio (PB) is expected to be 0.7 [4]