证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 13 日 飞科电器（603868.SH） 业绩困境反转曙光初现，双品牌战略收效需耐心 消费品/家电 飞科电动剃须刀中高端占比提升，高速电吹风迭代驱动结构升级。24 年主要受 飞科主动收缩主品牌低价格带产品、博锐子品牌成长不及预期影响，25Q1 收入 止跌企稳，盈利水平有所恢复，我们预计随着新品上市、规模效应显现，飞科 业绩有望实现困境反转，25 年业绩 7 亿元，当前估值 24 倍，给予"增持"评级。 增持（下调） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：36.96 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 436 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 436 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 16.1 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 16.1 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 7.4 | | ROE（TTM） | 14.3 | | 资产负债率 | 16.5% | | 主要股东 | 上海飞科投资有限公司 | | 主要股东持股比例 | 80.99% | ❑ 盈利预测：公司去年 Q4 起加大费用投入进一步提升高速电吹风市场份额，短 期盈利或有承压，我们 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8][67] Core Insights - The company is undergoing a transformation focused on brand upgrading, product refinement, and category expansion, which is expected to yield significant results by 2025, with a projected 48% increase in net profit to 430 million yuan [1][8][67] - The company has successfully navigated economic cycles and is positioned to benefit from new consumption trends and improved profit margins due to policy support and platform adjustments [1][8][67] Financial Data and Valuation - The current stock price is 46.56 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 7.3 billion yuan and a PE ratio of 17 [4][67] - Projected revenues for 2025 are expected to reach 5.475 billion yuan, with a net profit of 430 million yuan, reflecting a 48% year-on-year growth [9][64][67] Brand and Product Strategy - The company has shifted its brand positioning to appeal to younger consumers, focusing on creative small appliances that meet the needs of the Z generation [13][16] - The product strategy emphasizes premiumization and essentiality, with a reduction in SKU count by 35% from 2022 to 2024, leading to improved average selling prices [19][21][22] Channel Strategy - The company is enhancing its omnichannel approach, with significant growth in social e-commerce and a focus on expanding its offline presence [48][53] - The acquisition of Roman Smart is expected to bolster the company's global presence and product offerings in the personal care segment [54][59] Profitability Forecast - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability, with net profit margins expected to improve from 5.7% in 2024 to 8.1% in 2025 [64][67] - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 430 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 570 million yuan, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [64][67]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 13 日 石头科技（688169.SH） 模式变革加快，市占规模优先 消费品/家电 石头经历渠道模式调整后，24Q4-25Q1 收入进入爆发式增长，研发投入加大， 推动新品持续放量，同时国内外市场齐头并进，线上线下渠道扩张推动市占领 先战略落地。当前估值 20 倍，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 股价表现 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 10 -8 -35 相对表现 6 -1 -40 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -60 -40 -20 0 20 May/24 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 (%) 石头科技 沪深300 相关报告 1、《石头科技（688169）—业绩快报 收入大超预期，AI+机械手重构清洁想 象》2025-03-04 2、《石头科技（688169）—更积极的 投入，更强的决心，盈利暂有承压》 2024-11-02 3、《石头科技（688169）—业绩增长 符 合 预 期 ， 海 外 持 续 扩 张 》 2024-09-03 | 史晋星 S1090522010003 | | --- | | shijinxing@cm ...

证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 5 月 13 日 节前消费保持平稳——出口量价回落 【周度经济指数】周度经济指数回落。上周中国周度经济指数（WEI）为 5.2%， 较前值回落 0.2 个百分点。其中 WEI 生产子指数为 5.0%，较前值回落 0.6 个百 分点；WEI 需求子指数为 5.8%，较前值回升 0.3 个百分点；供需缺口为 0.8%， 较前值回升 0.9 个百分点。 【基建】基建高频指标持平。上周水泥发运率为 39.3%，较前值回落 1.2 个百 分点。水泥磨机运转率为 41.7%，较前值回落 1.8 个百分点。石油沥青装置开工 率为 28.8%，较前值回升 0.5 个百分点。 【生产】生产回落。上周螺纹钢产量 4 周移动平均同比为 2.4%，较前值回落 3.4 个百分点。高炉开工率为 84.6%，较前值回升 0.2 个百分点。汽车半钢胎开工率 为 58.4%，较前值回落 14.0 个百分点。沿海主要电厂日均耗煤量 4 周移动平均 同比为 1.1%，较前值回落 0.9 个百分点。 【房地产】商品房销售增速回落。上周 30 大中城市商品房销售面积 4 周移动平 均同比为-8.1%，较前 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 05 月 13 日 猪价淡季不淡，上市猪企实现扭亏 生猪养殖行业 2024 年报以及 25Q1 一季报总结 消费品/农林牧渔 25Q1，猪价整体淡季不淡、饲料价格下降、仔猪占比提升共同推动上市猪企 实现扭亏，而行业商品猪养殖成本方差仍大，优质猪企 25 年仍有望凭借低成 本优势获取可观利润、持续修复资产负债表。重点推荐牧原股份、温氏股份， 建议关注神农集团、东瑞股份等。 ❑ 风险提示：畜禽及粮食价格波动超预期，突发大规模不可控疾病，极端天 气，重大食品安全事件，上市公司销量/成本不达预期等。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 002714.SZ | 214.4 | 3.27 | 3.86 | 10.2 | 2.8 | 强烈推荐 | | 温氏股份 | 300498.SZ | 110.7 | 1.39 | 1.38 | 12.1 | 2.6 | 强烈推荐 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 中美阶段性互降关税有何影响 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 17 期） 频率：每周 中美阶段性互降关税将缓解短期内国内经济和政策压力并提升市场风险偏好水 平。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《谈判的底气——宏观与大 类资产周报》2025-05-11 2、《票据融资或创新高——4 月金融数据预测》2025-05-09 3、《央国企动态系列报告之 38 ——央企盈利略有放缓，价值 创造能力保持领先优势》2025- 05-07 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 中美经贸磋商为何能达成超预期的成果？正如我们此前的报告和路演中所提 到了，中美贸易摩擦对两国的冲击是有所区别的。对美国而言，将中国排除 其供应链体系，美国供给将出现较大缺口。按照美方数据，去年自中国进口 金额占比达到 13%。而供给 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance of the industry index compared to the benchmark index [3][9]. Core Insights - The US-China trade friction is expected to significantly ease, which may lead to a valuation recovery for leading OEMs in the manufacturing sector [1][7]. - Strong order stability is noted among leading manufacturers, with a focus on those with robust cross-regional capacity layout, high profit margins, quality customer structures, and strong order certainty [1][7]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 295 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1784.7 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1558.7 billion [3]. - Recent performance metrics show an absolute performance of 13.1% over one month, 4.3% over six months, and 7.3% over twelve months, with relative performance of 8.8%, 10.6%, and 2.3% respectively [5]. Key Companies and Projections - **Jiuxing Holdings**: A leading manufacturer of sports fashion footwear with strong design and production efficiency, expected net profits of 190 million, 211 million, and 232 million USD for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE of 9.5X for 2025 [7]. - **Jingyuan International**: A global leader in garment manufacturing, projected net profits of 234 million, 274 million, and 317 million USD for 2025-2027, with a current market cap corresponding to a PE of 8X for 2025 [7]. - **Shenzhou International**: A leading garment OEM with improving capacity utilization and efficiency, expected net profits of 6.61 billion, 7.25 billion, and 7.98 billion CNY for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE of 12.5X for 2025 [7]. - **Huali Group**: A leading manufacturer of sports and leisure footwear, with projected net profits of 4.13 billion, 4.72 billion, and 5.39 billion CNY for 2025-2027, corresponding to a PE of 16X for 2025 [7]. - **Weixing Co.**: A company pursuing internationalization, benefiting from its Vietnam factory, with a current market cap corresponding to a PE of 18X for 2025 [7].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 青岛港（601298.SH） 集装箱吞吐量超预期，业绩稳健增长显韧性 周期/交通运输 青岛港发布 2025 年一季报，2025 年一季度实现营业收入 48.1 亿元，同比增长 8.5%，实现归母净利润 14 亿元，同比增长 6.5%，实现扣非归母净利润 13.7 亿元，同比增长 5.8%。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 18173 | 18941 | 19600 | 20243 | 20910 | | 同比增长 | -6% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 6753 | 7073 | 7454 | 7770 | 8081 | | 同比增长 | 3% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 4% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 4923 | 5235 | 5513 | 5745 | 5975 | | 同比增长 | 9% | 6% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Strongly Recommended" [1][6]. Core Views - The company has reversed a trend of declining performance over the past four quarters, achieving a remarkable year-on-year growth of 32% in non-recurring profit for Q1 2025. This is attributed to the continuous enhancement of its smart TV business capabilities, rapid global market share growth, and exceeding expectations in its proprietary brand business. The launch of innovative products such as AI glasses and expansion into overseas markets are expected to drive significant growth in the innovative display product segment [1][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.142 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 210 million yuan, up 16% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit reached 180 million yuan, marking a 32% increase year-on-year. The revenue growth by business segments includes smart interaction, innovative products, and TV revenue increasing by 10%, 50%, and 6% respectively, with sales volume growth of 16.5%, 64%, and 31% [6][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has effectively addressed tariff risks through its global super factory MTO overseas cooperation plan, resulting in a significant sales volume increase of 31%, outperforming the market average growth of 3.5% for the top ten global TV ODM factories in Q1 2025. The company is also actively expanding its three proprietary brands (KTC, Haoli, FPD) into overseas markets, with products listed on platforms like Amazon and Temu [6][7]. Product Innovation - The innovative display segment is experiencing high growth, with the company actively exploring AI, AR, and VR applications. The FPD brand has launched a VR glasses series, while KTC is expected to introduce AI interactive glasses. The interactive flat panel market is projected to grow by 3.5% in 2025, driven by educational and commercial applications [6][7]. Profitability and Forecast - The company's gross margin improved by 0.75 percentage points year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a net profit margin increase of 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.059 billion yuan, 1.242 billion yuan, and 1.474 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 17%, and 19% respectively [6][7][12].

证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 12 日 降准降息推进稳楼市，"好房子"时代头部品牌受益 建材行业定期报告 中游制造/建材 本周（2025/5/5-2025/5/10）建材动态：水泥需求有所减弱，价格回落延续； 浮法玻璃市场价格下滑，出货普遍较弱；玻纤中，无碱粗纱市场价格调后暂 稳，电子纱市场稳价为主。周内降息释放积极信号，"好房子"建设要求利 好消费建材头部品牌。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 96 | 1.9 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 769.4 | 0.9 | | 流通市值（十亿 | 704.0 | 0.9 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 8.5 -6.1 0.6 相对表现 4.2 0.2 -4.4 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 May/24 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 (%) 建材 沪深300 相关报告 1、《建材行业定期报告—提振内需 预期加强，地产企稳助力估值修复》 2025-04-22 2、《建材行业定期报告—提振内需 预 ...