证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 1-12 月累计拿地均价同比增幅收窄 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 31 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 31 日） | 新房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 31 日） | 二手房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 31 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | | 样本城市 | -23% | -收窄 | +12 PCT | 样本城市 | -25% | -扩大 | -10 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | -30% | -收窄 | +11 PCT | 一线城市 | -26% | -扩大 | -1 PCT | | （4 城） | | | | （2 城） ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Multi-Cycle Timing Model for Domestic Interest Rates - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression algorithms to identify the support and resistance lines of interest rate trends. It evaluates the breakthrough patterns of interest rate movements across different investment cycles to provide multi-cycle composite timing signals[9][21]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Data Input**: Yield-to-Maturity (YTM) data for 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds is used as the basis for analysis[9][21]. 2. **Cycle Definition**: - Long cycle: Monthly frequency - Medium cycle: Bi-weekly frequency - Short cycle: Weekly frequency[9][21]. 3. **Signal Generation**: - For each cycle, the model identifies upward or downward breakthroughs in interest rate trends. - A composite score is calculated based on the number of consistent signals across the three cycles. If at least two out of three cycles show the same directional breakthrough, a timing signal is generated[9][21]. 4. **Final Signal**: - The final signal is classified as "neutral," "neutral oscillation," or "neutral with a slight upward/downward bias" based on the composite score[9][21]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures interest rate trends and provides actionable timing signals for different bond maturities[9][21]. 2. Model Name: Multi-Cycle Timing Model for U.S. Interest Rates - **Model Construction Idea**: The domestic multi-cycle timing model is applied to the U.S. Treasury market to generate timing signals for U.S. interest rates[18]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Data Input**: 10-year U.S. Treasury YTM data is used as the basis for analysis[18]. 2. **Cycle Definition**: - Long cycle: Monthly frequency - Medium cycle: Bi-weekly frequency - Short cycle: Weekly frequency[18]. 3. **Signal Generation**: - The model identifies upward or downward breakthroughs in interest rate trends for each cycle. - A composite score is calculated based on the number of consistent signals across the three cycles. If at least two out of three cycles show the same directional breakthrough, a timing signal is generated[18]. 4. **Final Signal**: - The final signal is classified as "neutral" or "neutral oscillation" based on the composite score[18]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates adaptability to the U.S. market, providing consistent timing signals for U.S. Treasury yields[18]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Cycle Timing Model for Domestic Interest Rates - **5-Year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 5.47% - Maximum drawdown: 2.88% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.9 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 2.1% - Maximum drawdown: 0.59% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.57 - Long-term excess return: 1.06% - Short-term excess return: 0.77%[22][34] - **10-Year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 6.04% - Maximum drawdown: 2.74% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 2.21 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 2.33% - Maximum drawdown: 0.58% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 4.03 - Long-term excess return: 1.63% - Short-term excess return: 1.19%[25][34] - **30-Year YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 7.32% - Maximum drawdown: 4.27% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.71 - Short-term annualized return (since 2024): 2.95% - Maximum drawdown: 0.92% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.22 - Long-term excess return: 2.42% - Short-term excess return: 2.65%[30][34] 2. Multi-Cycle Timing Model for U.S. Interest Rates - **10-Year YTM**: - Final signal: Neutral oscillation - Composite score: 1 upward breakthrough in the short cycle, no signals in the long and medium cycles[18][20] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Interest Rate Structure Indicators (Level, Term, Convexity) - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor set quantifies the structural characteristics of the interest rate market, including level, term, and convexity, to provide insights into market positioning and mean-reversion tendencies[6]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Level Structure**: - Definition: Average YTM across maturities - Current value: 1.58% - Historical percentiles: 18% (3 years), 11% (5 years), 5% (10 years)[6]. 2. **Term Structure**: - Definition: Slope of the yield curve - Current value: 0.55% - Historical percentiles: 50% (3 years), 34% (5 years), 40% (10 years)[6]. 3. **Convexity Structure**: - Definition: Curvature of the yield curve - Current value: 0.06% - Historical percentiles: 41% (3 years), 25% (5 years), 21% (10 years)[6]. - **Factor Evaluation**: These factors provide a comprehensive view of the interest rate market's structural dynamics, aiding in timing and allocation decisions[6]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Interest Rate Structure Indicators - **Level Structure**: Current value: 1.58%, historical percentiles: 18% (3 years), 11% (5 years), 5% (10 years)[6] - **Term Structure**: Current value: 0.55%, historical percentiles: 50% (3 years), 34% (5 years), 40% (10 years)[6] - **Convexity Structure**: Current value: 0.06%, historical percentiles: 41% (3 years), 25% (5 years), 21% (10 years)[6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in technology market performance between US and Hong Kong stocks during the holiday period, with AI and commercial aerospace sectors showing frequent information catalysts, suggesting continued focus on core industry players [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications and the acceleration of large model iterations, recommending continued attention to companies like Alibaba, Kingsoft, and others in the AI infrastructure space [6] Summary by Sections Holiday Technology Dynamics - During the New Year holiday, US and Hong Kong stock markets exhibited divergent trends, with technology stocks being the main market drivers. Notably, AI and storage chips led the gains, with Micron Technology rising over 10% to reach a historical high, and significant increases in other tech stocks [9] - The Hong Kong market saw a "New Year rally," with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.76% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 4% [9] Market Performance Review - In the last week of 2025, the computer sector rose by 1.16%, with the top-performing stocks being Yuyin Co., Digital Certification, and others, while the report also lists the top gainers and losers in the market [24]

Group 1 - The report anticipates that A-shares will continue their upward trend in January, supported by improved fundamentals due to accelerated local government special bond issuance and a recovery in government investment [2][4][12] - The earnings forecast for listed companies is expected to show a significant year-on-year increase due to a low base from the previous year, with January being a key period for earnings announcements [4][14][22] - The report highlights a focus on sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, and semiconductor equipment, as well as cyclical resource sectors like industrial metals, which are expected to be the main battlegrounds in January [12][16][22] Group 2 - The liquidity environment is projected to remain stable, with net inflows of incremental funds expected, particularly from foreign and insurance capital [3][15][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of sectors with high earnings growth or improvement, particularly in TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) and cyclical resource sectors [5][17][54] - The report suggests that the market is likely to experience structural inflows of funds, with a focus on large-cap growth stocks and indices such as CSI 300 and STAR Market 50 [16][18][21] Group 3 - The report indicates that January is a critical month for earnings disclosures, with potential volatility in stocks that may not meet expectations, particularly in high-growth sectors [48][51] - The analysis of historical data suggests that sectors with stable earnings, such as home appliances, automobiles, and non-bank financials, have a higher probability of achieving excess returns during this period [51][54] - The report notes that the upcoming year is significant due to the initiation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which historically correlates with increased infrastructure investment and economic stabilization [23][26][29] Group 4 - The report discusses the global commodity market, indicating a potential upward trend in prices driven by demand recovery and policy expectations, particularly in industrial metals [30][35][36] - The analysis highlights the impact of geopolitical factors and supply chain security on commodity prices, emphasizing the importance of resource nationalism and strategic resource management [42][43][46] - The report suggests that the demand for industrial metals will be supported by new technological needs, particularly in AI and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to drive significant growth [38][40][47]

Group 1 - The report reviews the controllable nuclear fusion sector's performance since 2025 and outlines key catalytic events, projecting significant developments in 2026 and beyond, with a focus on China's strategic direction in nuclear fusion [1] - Key events expected to revitalize interest in the sector include the ignition of China's BEST device in 2027, the connection of the Helion device to the grid in 2028, and a 200 MW power purchase agreement between Google and CFS in the 2030s [1] - The report highlights that the nuclear fusion industry is currently transitioning from experimental reactors to engineering reactors, with significant advancements in both China and the United States [7][15] Group 2 - The report identifies 19 listed companies in the nuclear fusion sector, using a market capitalization-weighted average stock price to create the "controllable nuclear fusion index," which has experienced three rounds of price increases since 2025 due to event-driven catalysts [7][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies that occupy core positions with strong order acquisition certainty, favorable competitive landscapes, and high value in the nuclear fusion supply chain [21] - Key components in the Tokamak technology path include high/low temperature superconducting magnets, vacuum chambers, and power systems, with a limited number of companies involved in these critical areas [21][22] Group 3 - The report outlines significant upcoming events that may trigger a new round of market activity in the nuclear fusion sector, including the IPO of Shanghai Superconductor, advancements in the Starfire project, and developments from U.S. commercial fusion companies [23] - The Shanghai Superconductor IPO aims to raise 1.2 billion yuan and is currently in the inquiry phase, with expectations for a successful listing in 2026 [23] - The Starfire project, a collaboration between Jiangxi Lianchuang and China Nuclear Fusion, aims to achieve a Q value greater than 30 and a continuous power output of 100 MW [23]

证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2026 年 01 月 04 日 三个市场关注点和一个自然均衡点 ——房地产行业 2026 年度投资策略 周期/房地产 q 投资建议： 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 258 | 5.0 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2936.6 | 2.7 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2781.7 | 2.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1.8 14.2 8.6 相对表现 -4.0 -3.4 -9.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Jan/25 Apr/25 Aug/25 Dec/25 (%) 房地产 沪深300 相关报告 房地产角度：关注（1）业绩相对稳健且股息率较高的【华润置地】【华润万 象生活】等；（2）经营动量有积极变化的公司，例如 25 年【滨江集团】【中 国金茂】【建发国际集团】【越秀地产】等曾演绎这一逻辑；（3）公开债务 偿付压力下降且估值较低的【金地集团】【龙湖集团】等；（4）业绩增长及 分红稳定的物企【保利物业】【绿城服务】等；（5）存在机会型布 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - SpaceX's growth trajectory illustrates a clear development path for the commercial space industry, emphasizing the importance of satellite manufacturing, satellite internet, and reusable rocket technology [1][9] - The company has evolved from near bankruptcy to becoming the highest-valued private unicorn globally, with an internal valuation reaching $800 billion [9][12] - SpaceX's vision includes reducing space transportation costs and enabling human colonization of Mars, while also creating a comprehensive "space economy ecosystem" [9][12] Summary by Sections 1. SpaceX's Journey and Valuation Surge - Founded by Elon Musk in 2002, SpaceX has transformed from a struggling startup to a leader in the global space industry, with a valuation of $800 billion [9][12] - The company aims to make humanity a multi-planetary species and has expanded its vision to include transportation, communication, and deep space exploration [9][12] 2. Rocket Launch: Building a Strong Moat with Reusability - The Falcon 9 rocket is the first orbital-class reusable rocket, reducing launch costs by over 60% [28][30] - SpaceX has integrated automotive production logic into aerospace, significantly lowering costs and increasing efficiency [30][33] 3. Starlink: The Core Engine of Growth - Starlink has over 9,000 satellites in orbit and serves more than 9 million users across 155+ countries, establishing itself as a major revenue source for SpaceX [38][44] - The service offers significant advantages over traditional communication methods, including low latency and global coverage [44][45] 4. SpaceX's Potential Valuation - SpaceX's valuation could reach $1.5 trillion, driven by the potential of the Starship program and its ability to reshape the economics of space transportation [65][71] - The Starship represents a key future option for SpaceX, enabling a transition from a launch service provider to a space infrastructure company [71] 5. Investment Recommendations - Focus on key segments such as satellite manufacturing, satellite internet operations, and the reusable rocket supply chain for potential investment opportunities [72]

Manufacturing Sector - December manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1, up 0.9 from the previous month, indicating a significant recovery above the seasonal level[1] - The production index rose to 51.7, an increase of 1.7, while the new orders index improved to 50.8, up 1.6[1] - The increase in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the implementation of the "two 500 billion" growth stabilization policies and year-end demand release[1] Service Sector - December service PMI recorded at 49.7, a slight increase of 0.2, but still below the neutral level of 50[1] - Consumer-related services remain weak due to seasonal effects, with retail, accommodation, and entertainment sectors below 50[1] - Financial activities continue to be robust, providing essential support for year-end economic performance[1] Construction Sector - December construction PMI rose to 52.8, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, marking a significant recovery after four months below 50[1] - The acceleration in construction activity is linked to increased investment in affordable housing and infrastructure projects[1] - Construction firms maintain optimistic market expectations, with the business expectation index remaining above 57 for two consecutive months[1] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment is characterized by a year-end push across sectors, supported by policy implementation and capital investment[1] - The manufacturing sector's recovery in December is seen as a corrective rebound after a weaker performance in November[1] - Anticipated consumer demand during the upcoming New Year and Spring Festival is expected to boost service sector performance in early next year[1]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" due to expected stabilization and recovery in profitability [1][6]. Core Views - The company is gradually optimizing its business structure, with a continuous narrowing of the year-on-year decline in revenue per package. The operational optimization and profitability recovery are anticipated to improve [1][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 225.26 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.31 billion yuan, up 9.07% year-on-year [6]. - The company is actively expanding its business, with a significant increase in express delivery volume, which reached 4.31 billion packages in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.4% [6]. - The internationalization strategy is progressing, with overall growth in international business volume, and the segment is expected to continue reducing losses [6]. - The company has significantly increased its share repurchase amount to enhance shareholder returns, with a total repurchase amount of approximately 15.42 billion yuan as of early December 2025 [6]. Financial Data Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 308.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10.92 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase [8]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 17.7 in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [8][15].

Group 1: Infrastructure Industry Market Performance Review - The infrastructure sub-sectors underperformed relative to the Wind All A and Shenwan Transportation indices in 2025, with the Shenwan Highway Index down 9.2%, the Shenwan Railway Index down 13.3%, and the Shenwan Port Index down 1.4%, lagging behind the Wind All A by 17.9, 22, and 10 percentage points respectively [6][11] - The overall market style shift has led to a significant decline in the highway sector, which has seen a cumulative drop of 11.7% in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 by 27.8 percentage points [17] Group 2: Highway Sector - The highway sector's fundamentals remain stable, with traffic revenue affected by road network changes and expansions, leading to varied performance among companies [20][24] - In 2025, the national highway passenger volume reached 8.57 billion people, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, while freight volume was 31.91 billion tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [20] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on individual stocks, particularly Anhui Expressway, which has shown significant revenue growth due to recent acquisitions and expansions [31] Group 3: Railway Sector - The railway sector has shown steady growth in passenger volume, with a total of 3.54 billion passengers transported in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [35] - Freight volume in the railway sector has been under pressure, with a total of 3.91 billion tons transported in the same period, showing a year-on-year increase of 3% [36] - The outlook for the railway sector remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in passenger volume and potential improvements in freight volume as macroeconomic conditions stabilize [43] Group 4: Port Sector - The port sector has demonstrated stable performance, with total cargo throughput reaching 1.357 billion tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [48] - Container throughput has outperformed bulk cargo, with a total of 26 million TEUs handled, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [56] - Investment recommendations highlight Qingdao Port and China Merchants Port as attractive options due to their low valuations and strong cash flow, with expectations for dividend growth [79]