证券研究报告 | 债券专题报告 2025 年 9 月 8 日 中短端信用债相对占优 ——信用债策略周报 一、信用利差整体表现分化，短端利差大多收窄 上周各期限信用债收益率大多下行，信用利差整体表现分化，长久期利差大多 走阔，中短久期利差大多收窄。3 年期各评级中短票利差全周累计收窄 2bp 以 内，7 年期各评级中短票利差走阔约 0.4bp。分品种来看，二永债利差大多收窄， 银行永续债短端利差收窄幅度大于其他信用品种：1）城投债：上周城投债信用 利差表现分化。7 年期 AA 级城投债利差走阔幅度最大，约 3bp；1 年期各评级 和 5 年期中高评级城投债利差均收窄；2）金融债：上周二永债信用利差大多收 窄。其中 1 年期和 3 年期二永债利差收窄幅度较大，5 年期和 7 年期各评级二 永债利差表现分化，其中 7 年期高评级二永债利差走阔幅度较大，约 1.3bp。 二、信用债二级成交情况：整体换手率有所回落，各品种 TKN 占比大多下降 上周信用债整体换手率从前周的 1.93%降至 1.63%（降幅 0.3 个百分点），反 映市场交投活跃度有所走弱。与过去三年相比，2025 年换手率处于中等水平， 近期呈现下行 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's short-term innovation business is driving performance beyond expectations, with new AI glasses positioning the company in the AI hardware market, catalyzing a valuation reassessment [1]. - The long-term transformation towards proprietary brands and continuous optimization of profit structure is embraced, aiming to create a new growth curve through AI [1]. - The company has achieved significant growth in its innovative business segment, with a revenue increase of 39.16% year-on-year in H1 2025, becoming a core growth engine [8]. - The AI strategy has been fully implemented, with a diverse product matrix covering "AI + Office," "AI + Education," "AI + Healthcare," and "AI + Entertainment," opening up long-term development opportunities [8]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 10.6 billion and 12.4 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a current PE of approximately 15x and 13x [8]. Financial Data Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 69.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.03% [8]. - The company’s traditional business profitability is steadily improving, with the smart interactive display business revenue growing by 9.81% year-on-year in H1 2025 [8]. - The company’s innovative business segment has shown remarkable performance, with KTC brand sales on Amazon Prime Day increasing by 381% year-on-year [8]. - The financial forecast indicates total revenue growth from 13,447 million yuan in 2023 to 20,785 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9% [9][18].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 07 日 关注多国国内政治不确定性 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：上合组织峰会；中国人民抗日战争胜利纪念日；乌克兰战后安全保 障进展；美国关税进展；日本首相辞职。 未来一周：法国国民议会投票；美国国内政治及关税政策；地缘冲突。 | | | | 国际时政日历 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | | 9/1 | 9/2 | 9/3 | ald | વીર્ટ | ale | 9/7 | | 上合组织峰会于天津 | | 中国人民抗日战争胜 | 当地时间9月4日欧洲 | 当地时间9月4日特朗 | 特朗普此前威胁的俄 | 日本首相石破茂宣布 | | | | 利纪念日 | 国家会晤于法国,26 | 普签令履行美日关税 | 乌直接会晤截止期 | 辞去自民党总裁职务 | | | | | 国承诺将"在停火或 | 协议 | | | | | | | 和平协议框架下"向 | | | | | | | | 乌克兰部署军队 | | ...

Domestic Insights - The August PMI manufacturing price index increased, likely due to the upward shift in upstream commodity prices, which may hinder future corporate profit recovery[2] - The current domestic market is in a new bull market phase, with wealth effects expected to boost service consumption as a highlight for Q4 economic growth[2] - September is a critical observation window for RMB appreciation, especially if US-China negotiations show substantial progress[2] Overseas Insights - In August, non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, indicating a moderate slowdown in employment rather than a rapid decline[15] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July, reinforcing concerns about employment risks discussed at the Jackson Hole meeting[15] - The weak non-farm data suggests the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates by 75 basis points this year, with weak dollar trading likely to continue in the coming weeks[15] Liquidity and Market Trends - The overall liquidity tightened this week, with the benchmark interest rate down approximately 7.412 basis points[19] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank pledged repo market increased by about 2417.16 billion CNY, reaching 73138.95 billion CNY[20] - Government bond issuance pressure decreased, with a net repayment of 1184.54 billion CNY and a planned issuance of 8376.7 billion CNY next week[21] Asset Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.18% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.83%[39] - Gold prices showed an upward trend, while international crude oil prices experienced a downward trend[37] - The US 10-year Treasury yield declined, reflecting a mixed performance in European bond yields[39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall decline of 1.1% during the week from August 31 to September 6, with various companies reporting their August sales figures [1][2]. - Great Wall Motors achieved its highest-ever August sales, selling 115,558 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 22.33% [26]. - New energy vehicle sales for Great Wall reached 37,495 units, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 50.92% [26]. - Leap Motor delivered 57,066 units, marking an impressive year-on-year growth of over 88%, maintaining its position as the top-selling new force brand for six consecutive months [25]. - Xpeng Motors and NIO also reported substantial growth in deliveries, with Xpeng delivering 37,709 units (up 169% year-on-year) and NIO delivering 31,305 units (up 55.2% year-on-year) [25]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's secondary market saw a comprehensive decline, with the passenger vehicle segment experiencing the most significant drop of 2.3% [12]. - The commercial vehicle segment had the smallest decline at 0.1% [12]. - Among the automotive industry’s tertiary sectors, the commercial passenger vehicle and automotive dealership segments saw increases of 5.1% and 2.9%, respectively [12]. Individual Stock Performance - The automotive sector saw a majority of stocks decline, with notable gainers including Pateo (+44.5%), Huayang Racing (+37.8%), and Tianpu Co. (+33.1%) [3][16]. - Conversely, stocks such as Construction Industry (-25.5%), Chengfei Integration (-22.7%), and Hunan Tianyan (-20.8%) faced significant declines [3][16]. Recent Industry Developments - The report highlights the launch of several new models, including the Geely Galaxy M9, which is set to be released on September 17, 2025, with a pre-sale price range of 193,800 to 258,800 yuan [27]. - Tesla's Model Y L has received a strong market response, with daily orders nearing 10,000 units since its launch on August 19 [28]. - The report also notes advancements in robotics within the automotive sector, with Tesla's Optimus V3 robot being highlighted as a significant development [29].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the 10-year government bond yield slightly declined to 1.83% as of September 5, down about 1 basis point from August 29, influenced by market concerns regarding the "anti-involution" policy and banks adjusting their balance sheets at the end of the quarter [1][2] - The bond market is currently in a weak oscillating environment, with a notable "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds driven by rising inflation expectations. If the stock market continues to strengthen, the 10-year government bond yield is likely to undergo further repricing [2][3] - The investment strategy in the bond market should focus on defensive tactics, employing a barbell strategy. Investors are advised to consider short-term credit bonds with moderate duration due to the volatility in long-term rates [3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the domestic bond market is showing stronger credit performance compared to interest rates, with longer maturities outperforming shorter ones. Specifically, 5Y and 30Y government bonds have shown relatively strong performance [8] - The report notes that the high-frequency economic activity index in China is currently at 1.04, indicating a seasonal decline, while the operating rates of various industries such as steel and automotive are showing mixed trends [18][36] - The report provides insights into the monetary and liquidity conditions, indicating that the central bank implemented a net withdrawal of 1,204.7 billion yuan through open market operations from September 1 to September 5, reflecting a stable overall funding environment [61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly under the current easing cycle, with a focus on resource stocks [2][3]. Core Insights - Recent weak employment data in the US has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, influencing the metal market. Attention is drawn to upcoming inflation data from China and the US to avoid unexpected market disruptions [2]. - Gold has shown strong performance, driven by monetary easing, loss of Federal Reserve independence, and rising European risks, with expectations for continued price increases following a technical breakout [2]. - The report highlights that many metal prices are expected to strengthen throughout the year, with continuous upward revisions in company EPS forecasts. Key metals to watch include copper, gold, rare earths, tungsten, antimony, cobalt, and aluminum [2][3]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown a significant increase in stock performance, with the industry index rising by 2.12% this week, ranking third among sectors. Precious metals led with a 10.73% increase, followed by energy metals at 5.86% [4]. - The report notes that the total market capitalization of the sector is approximately 536.72 billion, with 235 listed companies [3]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of tungsten prices due to supply constraints and robust demand, particularly in military and renewable energy sectors [7]. Key Metal Performance - Copper: As of September 4, copper inventories in major regions increased by 0.35 million tons to 1.406 million tons, while LME inventories decreased by 950 tons to 158,000 tons. The report maintains a positive long-term outlook for copper prices, citing historical low valuations [4][5]. - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories reached 626,000 tons, with a slight increase. The report suggests that while the aluminum market is under pressure, long-term fundamentals remain positive [5]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have increased, with gold reaching $3,587 per ounce, up 4.0% week-on-week. The report anticipates continued strength in precious metal prices due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [7]. Strategic Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in copper, aluminum, tungsten, and rare earths, highlighting specific firms such as Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Jiangxi Copper [4][5]. - For precious metals, companies like Lingbao Gold and Shandong Gold are noted as key players to watch [7]. - In the lithium and cobalt sectors, the report suggests monitoring companies like Huayou Cobalt and Luoyang Molybdenum due to expected supply tightness and price increases [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.818 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5.52%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 8.50% to 128 million yuan [1][7]. - The pharmaceutical industry continues to grow steadily, with the company's pharmaceutical segment generating a revenue of 1.005 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [7]. - The company is focusing on high-intensity R&D, with R&D expenses reaching 104 million yuan in the first half of 2025, maintaining a high investment pace [7]. Financial Performance - The company reported a gross margin of 49.97% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 4.80 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin business and a decrease in raw material costs [7]. - The net profit margin improved to 9.57%, up 1.82 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a clear recovery in profitability [7]. - The company expects net profits for 2025-2026 to be 292 million yuan, 366 million yuan, and 437 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 25%, and 19% respectively [7][10]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 3.613 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 292 million yuan [2][9]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 15.6 for 2025, decreasing to 10.4 by 2027 [2][10]. - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 4.735 billion yuan by 2025, with total liabilities of 1.375 billion yuan [8][10].

- The report focuses on the regulatory dynamics, market trends, and product issuance in the ESG field, providing a systematic review of important information from the past month for investors' reference[2][5] - In August 2025, a significant guiding document for the national carbon market was released, aiming to cover key industrial sectors by 2027[12][13] - The People's Bank of China and six other departments issued opinions to promote financial support for new industrialization, emphasizing green finance and technological innovation[5][23] - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued guidelines to establish a national carbon measurement center, enhancing the technical support for carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals[17] - The Shanghai government released a comprehensive reform action plan for the carbon market, aiming to establish Shanghai as an international center for carbon trading, finance, pricing, and innovation[19] - Guangdong province introduced policies to support green finance development through carbon emission quota pledges, marking a significant step in carbon financial innovation[21] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange launched a pilot program for green foreign debt business, expanding cross-border green financing channels for enterprises[30] - The People's Bank of China, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the National Forestry and Grassland Administration jointly issued a notice to support high-quality forestry development, emphasizing innovative financial support for forestry rights mortgages[32] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange published a report on the 20-year ESG practice in the Shanghai market, highlighting the achievements and progress in sustainable development[34] - The China Association for Public Companies released an analysis report on the sustainable information disclosure of listed companies in 2025, showing significant improvements in both quality and quantity of ESG disclosures[36] - The world's first "super-zero carbon building" was inaugurated in Qingdao, showcasing innovative green building practices and energy self-sufficiency[38] - Internationally, the EU continued to advance the Circular Economy and Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), while the UK proposed simplifying climate disclosure standards for financial institutions[41][43][46] - The market showed divergence: Standard Chartered Bank participated in a $150 million carbon credit transaction, while the Net-Zero Banking Alliance suspended activities and faced legal challenges[48][50] - As of the end of August, there were 915 ESG-themed funds in the market, with a total scale of approximately 1.02 trillion yuan, showing a slight growth since the beginning of the year[55] - Active ESG funds had an average return of 10.87% in the past month, with all five themes achieving cumulative returns of over 30% in the past year[60] - Passive ESG funds had limited short-term excess returns but showed bright spots in some themes over the long term[61] - The main ESG indices generally rose, with the 300 ESG and CSI A500 indices balancing volatility and returns[73] - The ESG bond market remained active, with green bonds continuing to dominate, although the issuance scale declined in August[77]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.903 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.48%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 26 million yuan, down 77.58% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 846 million yuan, a decline of 14.18% year-on-year, and a net profit of 15 million yuan, down 83.98% year-on-year, but with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.01% [1] - The report highlights ongoing weakness in the spandex market and intensified competition in the aramid fiber sector, with a focus on the ramp-up of aramid separator production [1][6] Financial Performance - The company’s spandex segment generated revenue of 719 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of -6.47%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.08 percentage points [6] - The aramid segment achieved revenue of 1.170 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin of 32.63%, down 5.85 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 67 million, 206 million, and 229 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.08, 0.24, and 0.27 yuan [6][8] Market Dynamics - The spandex industry is experiencing an imbalance in supply and demand, with production capacity increasing to 1.43 million tons in the first half of 2025, while demand growth remains limited [6] - The aramid market is facing intensified competition due to new capacity releases and weak demand in traditional industrial sectors, leading to price declines and shrinking profit margins [6] - Long-term growth potential exists in the aramid materials market, driven by environmental regulations and the demand for lightweight automotive components [6] Future Outlook - The company is accelerating the industrialization of aramid-coated separators, with production trials expected to begin in the first half of 2025 [6] - The report anticipates a gradual release of capacity in the aramid-coated separator market, which could enhance the company's market position [6]