| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘溢价减弱，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-02-06 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期海外供应"硬收缩"带来最强支撑，这是近期支撑甲醇价格上行的最关键因素。作 为主要进口来源地的伊朗，目前正处在冬季天然气保供限产的阶段，大部分甲醇装置降负或停产， 产出量处在年内低位水平，体现到我国 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货动力煤早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：进入迎峰度冬关键时期，居民生活用电明显改善，且距离春节尚有两周时间，工业用 电尚未回落，短期内电厂煤炭日耗进入全年顶峰时段，下游电厂和其他终端企业补库需求仍存， 支撑煤价企稳小幅反弹。不过，在 1 月旺季的背景下，港口 5500K 煤价全月仅小幅上涨 11 元/吨， 同样反映出了当前煤炭基本面的乏力，以及市场对后续煤炭供需格局的偏空预期。整体来看，短 期需求旺盛、北港库存持续去化，以及下游终端企业仍有补库需求等因 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-06 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 美伊展开和谈，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担忧。同时，美国冬 季风暴持续影响原油生产，上周原油库存减少 350 万桶，库欣地区库存同步下降 74.3 万桶，库存去 化超预期进一步强化看涨逻辑。由于美伊将在 6 日上 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-06 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空氛围增强，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东南亚 产区也将迎来低产季。同时胶市下游国内汽车产销数据偏乐观，12 月重卡销量数据好于预期。随着 能 ...

期货研究报告 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 | 焦煤延续低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 多空僵持，焦炭低位整理 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1200.0 元/吨，周 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures commodities on February 6, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - Basis data: From January 30 to February 5, 2026, the basis was - 107 to - 109 yuan/ton, and the spreads of May - January, September - January, and September - May were all 0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy commodities**: Basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from January 30 to February 5, 2026 are provided, such as the basis of INE crude oil on February 5 was 4.17 yuan/ton [7] - **Chemical commodities**: - Basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from January 30 to February 5, 2026 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on February 5 was - 275 yuan/ton [9] - Inter - month spreads: The inter - month spreads (May - January, September - January, September - May) of rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are given. For instance, the May - January spread of rubber was - 560 yuan/ton [10] - Inter - commodity spreads: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. from January 30 to February 5, 2026 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on February 5 was 1731 yuan/ton [10] Black Metals - Basis data: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 30 to February 5, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of rebar on February 5 was 109.0 yuan/ton [21] - Inter - month spreads: The inter - month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, including May - January, September(10) - January, and September(10) - May spreads [20] - Inter - commodity spreads: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. from January 30 to February 5, 2026 are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on February 5 was 4.02 [20] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic market**: The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 30 to February 5, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of copper on February 5 was - 460 yuan/ton [28] - **London market**: On February 5, 2026, the LME spreads (LME copper: (77.58)), LME - Shanghai ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals are provided [35] Agricultural Products - Basis data: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 30 to February 5, 2026 are shown. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on February 5 was - 222 yuan/ton [41] - Inter - month spreads: The inter - month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, etc. are provided, covering May - January, September - January, and September - May spreads [41] - Inter - commodity spreads: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, etc. from January 30 to February 5, 2026 are presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on February 5 was 1.94 [40][41] Stock Index Futures - Basis data: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 30 to February 5, 2026 are given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on February 5 was 133.85 [53] - Inter - month spreads: The inter - month spreads (next - to - current month, next - quarter to current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided [53]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-06 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of shock consolidation due to the decreased possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the overall view is shock consolidation. Although the latest macroeconomic indicators are weak, there is a need for a loose monetary and credit environment and the expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, and the demand for bond investment is boosted by risk - aversion. However, due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, so the bond futures will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, and the view reference is shock consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures rebounded yesterday. The weakening of macroeconomic indicators implies concerns in the demand side, so there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts and strong support for bond futures. The intensified disturbance of the Fed's monetary policy expectation and the volatility of silver also boost the demand for bond investment. But due to the structural interest rate cut in January and the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the short - term possibility of the central bank's comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the upward momentum of bond futures is insufficient [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗小幅回升，但钢市产业矛盾不断累积， 需求弱势格局延续，矿价继续承压。与此同时，国内港口到货量低位回升，且矿商发运量持续增加， 海外矿石供应开始企稳，而内矿供应表现平稳，叠加矿石库存高企，供应压力偏大。总之，高库存叠 加矿商发运企稳回升，矿石供应压力未退，而需求表现弱稳，铁矿石基本面依然偏弱，现实逻辑主导 下预计矿价继续承压偏弱运行，关注矿商发运情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | - ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 6 日） 品种观点参考 期货研究报告 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：市场对中国采购美豆的预期以及美国生物柴油税收抵免政策落地提振了美豆油需求，为市场注 入乐观情绪，支撑美豆价格。但全球大豆供应充裕的基本面压力更为沉重，成为压制价格的核心力量。巴 西大豆丰产预期持续强化，且收割进度快于往年，意味着未来数月进口大豆到港量将维持高位。国内港口 及油厂大豆、豆粕库存同比近乎翻倍，处于历史高位，而下游养殖业普遍亏损，且春节前备货已近尾声， 需求疲软。短期来看，市场缺乏 ...