期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担忧。同时，美国冬 季风暴持续影响原油生产，上周原油库存减 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 现实格局偏弱，钢价承压运行 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 假期临近现货贸易趋于停滞，建筑钢材库存大幅增加，而螺纹钢供需格局弱势未变，建筑钢厂 有所减产，螺纹钢周产量环比下降，供应迎来收缩，但库存水平偏高，压力缓解有限，关注库存变 化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标环比下降，继续位于近年来农历同期最低，且 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Price Change Calculation Method - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without night trading, the starting price is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day's daytime closing price to calculate the price change [2] 3.3 Strength and Weakness Criteria - A decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered strongly, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. The strong/weak concept only applies to the intraday view [3][4] 3.4 Driving Logic of Methanol Price - The most critical factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices recently is the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, as the main import source, is in the stage of winter natural gas supply guarantee and production restriction, with most methanol plants reducing or halting production. China's methanol imports may decline significantly in January - February. Geopolitical risks are rising, which boosted the domestic methanol futures to maintain a volatile and strong trend on the night of last Friday [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 2 月 9 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 产业情绪共振，矿价偏弱运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局持续走弱，钢厂生产趋稳，矿石终端消耗低位回升，但盈利状况不佳，且钢市产 业矛盾累积，需求改善力度有限，利好效应不强。与此同时，国内港口到货量低位回升，且矿商发运 量持续增加，海外矿石供应开始企稳，而内矿供应表现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 6, 2026, the stock indices oscillated with slight declines, and the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 2.1635 trillion yuan, a decrease of 30.8 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - The sharp fluctuations in silver disturbed market sentiment, increasing the willingness of funds to take profits and exit, leading to a continuous contraction in stock market trading volume [3]. - In the short - term, macroeconomic indicators have weakened, and the "weak reality" pressure has increased. Coupled with the decline in risk appetite caused by silver and the clear signal from regulators to control risks, the stock market sentiment is cautious [3]. - The sharp fluctuations in precious metals are short - term disturbances from external factors. The restoration of the stock market's risk appetite will ultimately return to its own fundamentals. The positive expectations of the policy side and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, which constitute the core logic for the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock indices [3]. - In the short - term, the stock market risk is cautious, and the stock indices will mainly oscillate and consolidate [3]. - In the options market, the implied volatility at the money has recently rebounded. Since the medium - and long - term upward logic of the stock indices is relatively firm, the bull spread strategy is maintained [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **Index and ETF Performance**: On February 6, 2026, the 50ETF fell 0.70% to 3.115; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.64% to 4.649; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.55% to 4.850; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.57% to 4643.60; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.20% to 8051.57; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.05% to 8.213; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.03% to 3.266; the GEM ETF fell 0.28% to 3.229; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.67% to 3.427; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.69% to 3037.86; the STAR 50ETF fell 0.60% to 1.50; the E Fund STAR 50ETF fell 0.75% to 1.45 [5]. - **Volume PCR and Open Interest PCR**: The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various options showed different changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 96.30 (previous day: 96.08), and the open interest PCR was 73.63 (previous day: 73.59) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility at the money and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options were provided. For example, the implied volatility at the money of SSE 50ETF options in February 2026 was 13.26%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 14.41% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Charts include the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [9][11][13][15][17]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Charts cover the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [19]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Charts involve the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [22]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Charts include the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [25]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Charts cover the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [34]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Charts involve the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [47]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Charts include the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [59]. - **GEM ETF Options**: Charts cover the GEM ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [72]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Charts involve the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [83]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Charts include the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [96]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts cover the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [108]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Charts involve the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility at the money for different tenors [118].

宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 6 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂震荡企稳 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 132920 元/吨，较前日 上涨 140 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 134440 元/吨，较前日下跌 6.56%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为 2140 点，正基差（现货升水），较前日 走弱 5020 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走弱。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量为 3 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 沪镍 今日镍价早盘跳水，日内震荡回升，持仓量持续下降。从盘面来 看，早盘沪银逼近跌停，带动有色盘面走弱明显，随着白银反弹，有 色同样呈现反弹态势。产业层面，短期驱动不强，长期印尼供应收缩 预期导致供需预期有所扭转。技术上，镍价逼近周一低位后反弹，持 续关注该位置支撑。 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 6 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡企稳 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜早盘先抑后扬，随后在 10 万关口窄幅震荡运行，日内持 仓量呈现下降态势。从盘面来看，早盘沪银逼近跌停，带动有色盘 面走弱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.65%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, both the supply and demand sides of rebar have weakened, the fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and steel prices in the off - season continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.43%, and the volume and open interest decreased. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, while the demand has weakened, and the fundamentals are weak. The price of hot - rolled coil will still be under pressure and oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the pressure caused by the intensification of the contradiction of weakening demand [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.23%, and the volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakly stable, while the supply pressure still exists. The fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken, and the inventory is rising at a high level. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the price of iron ore is under pressure and runs weakly. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, the global manufacturing PMI was 51%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous 10 - month running trend below 50%. By region, the manufacturing PMI in Africa decreased to 49.6%, that in Europe rose to 50%, that in Asia slightly decreased to 51%, and that in the Americas rose to 51.8% [7]. - In January 2026, the average monthly working hours of China's main construction machinery products were 72.5 hours, a year - on - year increase of 23.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.19%, among which excavators were 62.8 hours. The average monthly start - up rate of main construction machinery products was 48.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.63 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points, among which excavators were 48.6% [8]. - Anglo American raised its iron ore production target for 2026. The total iron ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 15.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5%. The total iron ore sales volume in the fourth quarter was 16.17 million tons, basically flat year - on - year and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 12%. The annual iron ore output in 2025 was 60.8 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 2%, and the cumulative annual iron ore sales volume was 61.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. The annual iron ore production guidance target for 2026 was raised to 55 - 59 million tons (previously 54 - 58 million tons). Among them, the output of the Kumba mine is 31 - 33 million tons, and that of the Minas - Rio mine is 24 - 26 million tons [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,190, 3,160 and 3,306 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,250, 3,150 and 3,284 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160; the coil - rebar price difference was 60, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,030. The price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap were 0, - 10, 0, 0 respectively [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 756 with a change of - 9; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 767 with a change of - 1; the sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 8.34 and 23.57 respectively with changes of - 0.01 and - 0.39; the SGX swap price was 100.90 with a change of - 1.60; the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 100.30 with a change of - 1.95 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,077, with a decline of 0.65%, the highest price was 3,111, the lowest price was 3,074, the trading volume was 723,307, the volume difference was 41,902, the open interest was 1,915,253, and the open interest difference was 67,582 [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,251, with a decline of 0.43%, the highest price was 3,270, the lowest price was 3,250, the trading volume was 276,669, the volume difference was - 7,206, the open interest was 1,484,610, and the open interest difference was - 10,036 [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 760.5, with a decline of 1.23%, the highest price was 772.0, the lowest price was 760.0, the trading volume was 216,259, the volume difference was - 115,477, the open interest was 514,745, and the open interest difference was - 10,368 [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report presents charts of steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as iron ore inventories in 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines [16][22]. - It also shows charts of steel mill production, such as the blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the start - up rate of 94 independent electric furnace steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profitability of 94 independent electric arc - furnace steel mills [31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have seasonally weakened, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk, but the inventory level is significantly higher than the same lunar period last year, and the pressure relief is limited. The demand for rebar continues to be seasonally weak, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions have both shrunk significantly. Considering that there is no improvement in downstream industries, the weak demand pattern is difficult to change. The relative positive factor is the policy expectation after the holiday. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory has increased again. The production of plate mills has stabilized, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50 tons month - on - month, and the overall level remains relatively high, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure remains. The demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 58,700 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency daily transactions have continued to run at a low level. The relative positive factor is that the output of downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level, which supports the demand for hot - rolled coil. However, attention should be paid to the potential pressure from the intensification of demand - weakening contradictions, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills has stabilized, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has slightly rebounded. The daily average pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills have both increased this week. However, considering that the profitability of steel mills has not improved and the contradictions in the steel market have accumulated, the demand improvement is limited. At the same time, the arrival volume at domestic ports is weakly stable, but the shipping volume of miners continues to increase, and the overseas supply of iron ore has stabilized and rebounded. Even though the domestic supply of iron ore has seasonally shrunk, the supply pressure remains under the high - inventory situation. The price of iron ore is under pressure and runs weakly under the dominance of the real - world logic, and attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 6 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 煤焦低位整理 核心观点 焦炭：截至 2 月 6 日当周，全样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂焦炭日均产量 合计 110.38 万吨，周环比增 0.53 万吨，同比下降 1.62 万吨；需求端 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量 228.58 万吨，周环比小幅增加 0.6 万吨/天，同 比增加 0.14 万吨。整体来看，本周焦炭基本面并无明显变化，供需两端 均低位小幅增加，缺乏单边动能，预计短期内焦炭期货维持低位震荡格 局。 焦煤：截至 2 月 6 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量为 75.5 万 吨，周环比下降 1.6 万吨。临近春节，焦煤产量将迎来短期收缩，但节后 预计可迅速恢复。进口方面，1 月甘其毛都口岸合计通关 30,877 车，虽 环比 12 月下降 17.2%，但较去年同期大幅增长 42.9%，蒙煤进口量仍处于 较高水平。需求端，独立焦化厂与钢厂焦化厂的焦炭日均产量合计为 110.38 万吨，周环比小幅增加 0.53 万吨。整体来看，焦煤基本面支撑有 限，中 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 螺纹钢 继续承压运行 （2026 年 2 月 6 日） 进入 2026 年，螺纹钢价格延续低迷态势，主力合约维持低位震荡格局，运行区间收窄至 3100~3180 元/吨。现货市场则受淡季需求拖累持续走弱，华东市场核心区域螺纹钢价格累计跌幅在 60~90 元/吨。 节前供应压力仍存 建筑钢厂生产积极性较高，带动螺纹钢产量自低位明显回升。截至 1 月 30 日当周，同口径下， 螺纹钢周产量达 199.83 万吨。自去年 12 月中旬开启回升以来，螺纹钢周产量累计增幅达 21.05 万 吨，当前产量已升至相对高位。与去年农历同期水平基本持平，同比微增 0.42 万吨，增幅为 0.21%。 从工艺流程分析来看，产量回升主要由长流程钢厂增产驱动，其最新周产量为 167.62 万吨，较 阶段低位累计增加 16.40 万吨。与此同时，短流程钢厂周产量亦自高位持续攀升，最新值达 32.21 万 吨，其间多次刷新阶段新高。随着春节临近，钢厂将逐步进入停产状态，预计后续产量将逐步收 缩。整体而言，新年以来建筑钢厂生产意愿较强，螺纹钢产量自低位出现回升，其中长流程钢 ...