Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view for TL2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is low, while there is still an expectation of medium - and long - term monetary easing [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. Due to insufficient effective domestic demand, there is an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. With the decline of Treasury bond spot prices and the central bank's net injection in the open market, the downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, the strong resilience of December's macro - economic data reduces the urgency of a short - term interest rate cut, so the upward momentum is also insufficient. Overall, short - term oscillation and consolidation are expected [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | Oscillation | Oscillation | Weak | Oscillation and consolidation | Low short - term interest rate cut probability, medium - and long - term easing expectation [1] | Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS - **Intraday View**: Weak - **Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Reference View**: Oscillation and consolidation - **Core Logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly yesterday. The upward and downward momentum is limited. Due to insufficient domestic demand, a loose monetary and credit environment is needed, so there is an expectation of a policy interest rate cut. The decline of spot prices and the central bank's net injection reduce the downward momentum, while the strong December macro - economic data reduces the short - term urgency of a rate cut, limiting the upward momentum. Short - term oscillation and consolidation are expected [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is expected to grow at a rate of 2.6% in 2026, according to the World Bank. The US GDP growth rate is projected to reach 2.2%, while the eurozone and Japan's economic growth rates are expected to slow down to 0.9% and 0.8% respectively. The US employment market remains weak, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by about 50bps in 2026. The price of oil is predicted to decline in 2026 due to an oversupply in the global market, and the price of coal may perform better than in 2025. Many metal futures prices have reached record highs, and institutions are still bullish on gold. The Chinese government is promoting the development of circular economy and industrial internet platforms, and taking measures to boost the service industry and consumption [10][19][31] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - In Q3 2025, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, and the non-manufacturing PMI for business activity was 50.2%. In November 2025, the monthly social financing scale was 2488.8 billion yuan, and the新增 RMB loans by financial institutions were 390 billion yuan. In December 2025, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year. In November 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -2.6%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.0%. In November 2025, the monthly export amount increased by 5.9% year-on-year, and the monthly import amount increased by 1.9% year-on-year [1] Commodity Investment Reference - **Comprehensive**: The trading and intraday closing transaction fees for certain lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted, and trading volume limits will be imposed. On January 13, 2026, 38 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 30 had negative basis. China will continue to impose anti-dumping duties on imported solar-grade polysilicon from the US and South Korea for 5 years. The Fed's Williams believes the current economic situation is favorable, with no strong pressure for interest rate adjustments. The CME Group plans to launch a 100-ounce silver futures contract in February [2][3] - **Metals**: Since the beginning of 2026, the futures prices of many metal varieties have reached record highs. The price of Shanghai aluminum's main contract has exceeded 25,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai copper has exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton. Many gold industry listed companies expect significant performance growth in 2025. The copper inventory in LME registered warehouses has decreased by 22%, and the copper inventory in US COMEX warehouses has increased by 444% in the past 12 months. The Chilean National Mining Association expects the copper price to be at $4.5 per pound in 2026 [5][6][7] - **Coking Coal, Steel, and Minerals**: Coking coal options will be listed on the DCE on January 16, 2026. S&P predicts that the upstream of China's commodity industry will perform better than the downstream. CITIC Securities believes that the coal price in 2026 may be better than in 2025 [9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Venezuela's state oil company has restarted oil wells to increase production. The EIA predicts that oil prices will decline in 2026 due to oversupply, and global oil inventories will continue to increase until 2027. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to be $56 per barrel in 2026, a 19% decrease from 2025. The EIA also provides forecasts for US natural gas and oil production and demand [10][11][12] - **Agricultural Products**: As of January 11, 2026, the EU's barley exports in the 2025/26 season reached 5.4 million tons, and soft wheat exports were 11.6 million tons. Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters expects the country's soybean, corn, and soybean meal exports in January 2026 to reach 3.73 million tons, 3.27 million tons, and 1.82 million tons respectively [13] Financial News Compilation - **Open Market**: On January 13, 2026, the central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 342.4 billion yuan [14] - **Important News and Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate the "15th Five-Year" plan for circular economy development. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes that enterprises should participate in industry rule-making and resist "involution". The US has relaxed the export regulations of NVIDIA's H200 chips to China. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued an action plan for the high-quality development of industrial internet platforms. Eight departments have introduced measures to promote the high-quality development of the elderly care service and silver economy. The Shanghai government has issued measures to promote the coordinated development of the service industry and consumption. Many convertible bonds will be redeemed early. The World Bank has raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%. Japanese government bonds have been sold off due to concerns about fiscal deterioration. The US budget deficit in December 2025 reached a record high. The US has taken a series of actions regarding Iran. The investigation of the Fed's Chairman Powell continues to ferment. Trump has made a series of statements on economic and political issues [16][17][19] - **Bond Market Summary**: Affected by the rise in capital prices, the yields of interest rate bonds have shown a differentiated trend, and the bond market is in a volatile pattern. The prices of some Vanke bonds have risen, while others have fallen. The CSI Convertible Bond Index has declined. The money market interest rates have mostly risen. The yields of European and US bonds have shown different trends [23][24][25] - **Foreign Exchange Market Express**: The onshore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9765 on January 13, 2026, down 23 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index rose 0.28%, and most non-US currencies fell [29] - **Research Report Highlights**: CICC predicts that US inflation may experience compensatory growth in December 2025, January 2026, and April 2026. CITIC Securities believes that the US employment market is still weak, and the Fed may cut interest rates by about 50bps in 2026. CITIC Construction Investment reports that the primary market issuance of Chinese dollar-denominated bonds increased in December 2025, and the secondary market indices rose. Xingzheng Fixed Income suggests focusing on the secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds of certain regional city and rural commercial banks. S&P believes that China's local governments may continue to issue large-scale debt in the next one or two years, and interest rate cuts can relieve some debt pressure. Citi warns that the continuous issuance of short-term bonds in Europe may threaten the independence of central banks [30][31][32] - **Today's Reminder**: On January 14, 2026, 178 bonds will be listed, 126 bonds will be issued, 90 bonds will make payments, and 167 bonds will pay principal and interest [33][34] Stock Market Important News - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.9% to 26,848.47 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose slightly by 0.11%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.71%. Pharmaceutical stocks generally rose, while gold and non-ferrous metals were active. Commercial aerospace and brain-computer interface concept stocks declined. Zhaoyi Innovation's H shares rose more than 37% on the first day of listing. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$1.296 billion. The ETF managed by Huaxia Fund exceeded 1 trillion yuan, becoming the first "trillion-level" ETF manager in China [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term and oscillate in the medium - term. It was strong on the day of the report, and is expected to continue the strong pattern on Wednesday [1][5]. - The core logic is that pre - holiday overseas supply "hard contraction" is the key factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices. Iran, a major import source, faces supply disruptions. Domestic port methanol inventory has decreased, leading to the repair of port spot prices and stronger basis, which boosts the futures market. The escalating US - Iran conflict may affect Iranian methanol plants, increasing geopolitical risks [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2605 contract is expected to oscillate [1]. - Intraday: The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be strong, and the overall view is a strong run [1][5]. 3.2 Price Driving Logic - The pre - holiday overseas supply "hard contraction" is the main factor driving up methanol prices. Iran's supply is disrupted, and domestic port inventory reduction has led to price repair and stronger basis, which is reflected in the futures market [5]. - The escalating US - Iran conflict may cause military strikes on Iran, increasing geopolitical risks and potentially affecting Iranian methanol plants, further supporting the strong trend of methanol futures [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term view is to be cautious due to the cooling macro - atmosphere and potential for short - term safe - haven demand. The中期 view is strong, but the intraday view is slightly weak, and the reference view is to wait and see. For copper, the short - term and intraday views are volatile with a weak bias, the中期 view is strong, and the reference view is to be bullish in the long - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Short - term: Volatile; Mid - term: Strong; Intraday: Slightly weak; Reference view: Wait and see. The core logic is that the macro - atmosphere cools, short - term safe - haven demand rises, last night's gold price rose and then fell, short - term movement is greatly affected by silver, and be cautious of gold price decline due to silver long - position liquidation [1][3]. Copper - Short - term: Volatile; Mid - term: Strong; Intraday: Slightly weak; Reference view: Bullish in the long - term. The core logic is that last night's copper price rose and then fell, affected by precious metals especially silver. This week, copper price increase has slowed, and short - term capital push is insufficient, waiting for industry follow - up [1][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly consists of various commodity futures data. Summary by Commodity Categories 1. Power Coal - Provided power coal basis data from January 7 - 14, 2026, with the basis on January 13 being -100 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Presented basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 7 - 13, 2026, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [7] Chemical Commodities - Showed cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol from January 7 - 13, 2026 [9][10] 3. Black Metals - Provided cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 7 - 13, 2026 [19][20][21] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Presented domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 7 - 13, 2026 [30] London Market - Showed LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals on January 13, 2026 [33] 5. Agricultural Products - Provided basis, cross - period, and cross - variety data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, sugar, and cotton from January 7 - 13, 2026 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - Presented basis and cross - period data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 7 - 13, 2026 [49][51]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 多空交织，焦煤低位整理 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 基本面支撑不足，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 12 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 支撑 | 基本面弱势运行，淡季钢价承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，建筑钢厂生产积极，螺纹产量持续回升，且后续仍有增量空间，供 应压力在增加，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现低迷，高频需求指标继续位于近年来同 期低位，且下游行业未见改善，需求料将延续季节性弱势，继而拖累钢价。总之，螺纹钢供应回 升，而需求表 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil 2603 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and show a stronger trend intraday, with an overall view of stronger operation. The core reason is the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, which has led to an increase in geopolitical risks and supported the crude oil price [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Information Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2603 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2603 contract is expected to be volatile [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2603 contract is expected to be stronger [1]. Price Movement Reference - The reference view is that the crude oil price will run stronger [1][5]. Core Logic - The US President Trump has frequently released geopolitical risk signals, and the US may target Greenland and Mexico. Also, the US has threatened a new round of military strikes against Iran, intensifying the Middle East geopolitical risks. The strengthening of the crude oil risk premium has weakened the dominance of the weak supply - demand pattern in the oil market, supporting the stronger operation of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and stronger trend on Wednesday [5]. Calculation Notes - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price for calculating the price change [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered weakish, an increase of 0 - 1% is considered strongish, and an increase of more than 1% is considered strong. The strongish/weakish description only applies to intraday views, not short - and medium - term views [3][4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：受美国农业部供需报告超预期利空的影响，豆类期价整体转弱。美国农业部 1 月份的月度供需 报告，作为对 2025/26 产季的最终核定，以一系列超预期的数据调整，为全球大豆市场定下了基调。本次 报告的核心特征在于数据与市场普遍预期形成强烈反差，尤其是美国大豆数据的调整方向全面利空。国内 尽管豆粕现货报价保持坚挺，然而，国内大豆与豆粕库存整体仍处于历史同期偏高水平，原料供应充裕。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The iron ore market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. The market is in a game between expectations and reality, and there is no significant improvement in the fundamentals of the iron ore market. Attention should be paid to the support of MA10 and the steel mill restocking situation [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be slightly stronger. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of MA10. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to high - level fluctuations in ore prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed significantly. After the Spring Festival, steel mills have resumed production as scheduled, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a low level. However, the steel market in the off - season can't bear a large - scale increase in production, so the incremental space for ore demand is limited. The positive factor is the pre - holiday restocking by steel mills. - Domestic port arrivals have continued to rise, and miners' shipments are weakly stable, both at relatively high levels. Overseas ore supply is relatively active, and domestic ore supply is also increasing. Ore supply remains at a high level. - In general, with high - level supply and limited improvement in demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, inventory is rising at a high level, and the upward driving force is not strong. The pre - holiday restocking is a positive factor. Under the game of long and short factors, ore prices are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [3].