1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short, medium and intraday terms, with a weak - downward trend in the intraday. The current situation is weak, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation". The overall view is "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the current situation is weak and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Construction steel mills have started to resume production, with continuous but limited increase in output, which is still at a relatively low level. Low supply supports the steel price, but the upward expectation remains unchanged, so subsequent changes should be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, with high - frequency demand indicators falling again and remaining at a low level in recent years. Downstream industries have not improved, and demand continues to decline seasonally, which still puts pressure on the steel price. In general, rebar supply is increasing while demand is seasonally weakening, with a relatively weak fundamental situation. The steel price in the off - season is under continuous pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support, and the steel price is expected to continue the oscillation pattern. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The methanol futures are expected to run with a bias towards strength, showing an oscillating pattern in the short - term (within a week), medium - term (two weeks to a month), and a bias towards strength intraday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to be oscillating in the short and medium - term, and biased towards strength intraday, with a reference view of running with a bias towards strength [1]. - The domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillating and stable trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the futures price closing slightly higher, and are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Tuesday [5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - The methanol futures' rebound was hindered and fell into a callback due to the increasing domestic methanol supply pressure and the significant correction of domestic coal futures prices [5]. - Although the port and inland inventories have slightly declined, they are still at a high level, and the downstream demand improvement is insufficient, with the olefin market profit weakening [5]. - With the emergence of long - short divergence, the market situation is formed [5].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View The report predicts that the domestic crude oil futures (SC2602) will run weakly in the short - term and mid - term, showing an overall trend of weakening after a period of shock. The short - term and mid - term trends are both "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak", with the reference view being "weak operation" [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Price and Trend - The short - term (within one week) and mid - term (two weeks to one month) trends of crude oil 2602 are "shock", and the intraday trend is "weak". The reference view is that it will operate weakly [1]. Driving Logic - The recent sharp escalation of the US - Venezuela situation is the most direct and powerful driving force for the rebound of oil prices. The US has increased pressure on Venezuela, with an estimated cumulative seizure of about 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil. Venezuela exported about 600,000 barrels per day in November, and the number of tankers going to Venezuela has decreased, leading to concerns about a global supply gap and pushing up the risk premium of oil prices. - The attack on Russian refineries by Ukraine has made geopolitical factors dominant in the short - term oil market. - After the short - term positive factors are digested, the domestic crude oil futures prices stabilized in a shock on the night session of Monday, and the futures prices gave back their gains. It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures will operate weakly in a shock on Tuesday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of domestic thermal coal has been continuously weakening in December 2025, with the decline exceeding expectations. The closing price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port on December 25 was 682 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 37 yuan, and it continued to weaken after falling below 700 yuan/ton. The coal market is dragged down by unexpectedly weak demand. Under the pattern of stable supply and weak demand, the coal inventory in the industrial chain remains high, and the thermal coal price is running weakly. Future stabilization is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents - **Price and Market Trend**: As of December 25, 2025, the 5500K thermal coal closing price at Qinhuangdao Port was 682 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan week - on - week, and it continued to be weak after breaking below 700 yuan/ton [4]. - **Driving Logic**: The weak coal market is mainly due to unexpectedly weak demand. The overall pattern of stable supply and weak demand leads to high coal inventories in the industrial chain, resulting in the weak operation of thermal coal prices [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The stabilization of thermal coal prices is expected to wait for the improvement of coal demand in coastal cities and the release of terminal replenishment demand [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of weakness [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trend**: In the short - term and medium - term, it will oscillate, and intraday it will be weak. It is expected to run weakly [1][5] - **Core Logic**: As domestic rubber - producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan enter the off - season, the supply pressure of domestic whole latex has significantly decreased. The domestic automobile production and sales data in the downstream of the rubber market are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in November are better than expected. After Thailand and Cambodia declared a truce, geopolitical disturbances have weakened. After the positive factors are digested, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillating and weak trend in the night session on Monday, and the futures price closed slightly lower. It is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trend**: In the short - term and medium - term, it will oscillate, and intraday it will be weak. It is expected to run weakly [1][7] - **Core Logic**: The domestic automobile production and sales data in the downstream of the rubber market are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in November are better than expected. However, the potential supply pressure is prominent, weakening the market driving force. As the crude oil futures price has fallen under pressure, the cost support has weakened. The domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and weak trend in the night session on Monday, and the futures price closed slightly lower. It is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to trade in a high - level range, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, while the intraday trend is slightly weak. The core logic is that bullish factors remain, keeping the ore price at a high level [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Port inventories are rising to high levels, steel mill production is stabilizing, and terminal ore consumption is at a low level. Although the profit situation of steel mills has limited improvement, the pre - holiday restocking expectation is relatively positive. Overall, the iron ore price is running strongly at a high level due to spot structural contradictions and pre - holiday restocking expectations, but the demand is weakening and supply remains high, so the upward driving force is not strong, and the follow - up trend is cautiously optimistic, with attention paid to steel mill restocking [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is slightly weak, with an overall view of high - level oscillation. The core logic is that bullish factors remain and the ore price is at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakening. Port inventories are rising, steel mill production is stable, terminal ore consumption is low, and steel mill profitability improvement is limited. Pre - holiday restocking expectation is positive. Domestic port arrivals have slightly declined, while miner shipments have reached a new weekly high for the year. Overall, the ore supply remains high. The iron ore price is running strongly at a high level due to spot structural contradictions and restocking expectations, but the fundamentals are weakening and the upward driving force is not strong, with attention on steel mill restocking [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view on financial futures in the stock index sector is oscillating with a slight upward bias. For IH2603, it is expected to be oscillating in the short - and medium - term, and showing a slight upward trend intraday. For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is slightly upward, and the medium - term view is oscillating, with an overall view of oscillating with a slight upward bias [1][5]. - In the short term, the stock index will maintain range - bound oscillations. Although it faced technical resistance when approaching the previous high and pulled back after rising, in the long run, the positive policy expectations and the net inflow of funds will support the stock index. As policy expectations ferment and the demand for long - term funds to allocate A - shares increases, the risk appetite in the stock market will gradually rise [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | Oscillating | Oscillating | Slightly upward | Oscillating with a slight upward bias | Unchanged positive policy expectations and net inflow of funds [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Slightly upward; **Medium - term View**: Oscillating; **Reference View**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias - **Core Logic**: The stock indexes oscillated and declined yesterday. The total trading volume of the stock market was 2157.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.4 billion yuan from the previous day. As the stock index approached the previous high, it faced technical resistance and pulled back after rising. In the short term, attention should be paid to the pace of capital entry. In the long term, positive policy expectations and the net inflow of funds support the stock index. As policy expectations ferment and the demand for long - term funds to allocate A - shares increases, the risk appetite in the stock market will gradually rise [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the medium - and long - term easing expectations still exist. The investment suggestion for TL2603 is to maintain a range - bound consolidation. Overall, Treasury bond futures are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with both upward pressure and downward support [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term outlook is range - bound, the medium - term outlook is range - bound, and the intraday outlook is weak. The reference view is range - bound consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there are still medium - and long - term easing expectations [1] 2. Price Quotation Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak, and the medium - term view is range - bound. The reference view is range - bound consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having a relatively large decline. After last week's rebound, the Treasury bond yield decreased, reflecting certain expectations of central bank interest rate cuts. However, the central bank's interest rate cut rhythm will likely maintain strong determination, and the short - term rebound driven by interest rate cut expectations is limited. Additionally, the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in Q1 2026 will bring supply - side pressure, suppressing the prices of Treasury bond cash bonds, especially medium - and long - term Treasury bonds [5]

Report Overview - The report is the morning report of precious metals and non - ferrous metals of Baocheng Futures on December 30, 2025, covering gold and copper [1]. Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - For gold, short - term is "oscillation", mid - term is "strong", and intraday is "oscillation and slightly strong", with a reference view of "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity is beneficial to the gold price, but the willingness of long - position holders to close positions before the holiday is strong [1][3]. - For copper, short - term is "oscillation", mid - term is "strong", and intraday is "oscillation and slightly strong", with a reference view of "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity and strong industrial expectations push up the copper price, but the willingness of long - position holders to close positions before the holiday is strong [1][4]. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, precious metals tumbled significantly. Shanghai gold fell below the 1000 - yuan mark, and New York gold successively fell below the 4500 - dollar and 4400 - dollar marks, with an intraday decline of over 4% [3]. - **Driving Logic**: After the Christmas break in the overseas market, the short - term macro - atmosphere cooled down, and the willingness of long - position holders to close positions was strong. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals generally fell on Monday. It is expected that funds will be cautious before the New Year's Day holiday, and Shanghai gold can focus on the support of the 20 - day moving average [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the copper price dropped from a high level, with an intraday high - level decline of nearly 4000 yuan/ton. The night - session maintained a weak trend, and the main futures price fell to the 96,000 - yuan mark. LME copper opened high and closed low yesterday, basically falling back to the price before the Christmas holiday [4]. - **Driving Logic**: As the New Year's Day holiday approaches, the willingness of long - position funds to take profits and close positions is strong. Industrial pressure has been continuously accumulating during the continuous rise of the copper price in December and needs time to digest. It is expected that funds will be cautious before the holiday, and the 95,000 - yuan mark support can be focused on [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economic and financial markets are experiencing significant fluctuations, with various industries showing different trends. For example, the metal market has seen extreme price swings, the energy market has supply - related changes, and the stock and bond markets have their own performance characteristics [4][10][30] - China is implementing a series of economic policies, such as tariff adjustments and promoting the development of digital RMB, which will have an impact on domestic and international trade and the financial system [2][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1] - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing certain trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other monetary indicators also had corresponding changes in November 2025 [1] Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From January 1, 2026, China will implement import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation rates for 935 commodities to enhance resource linkage and expand high - quality supply [2] - On December 29, 2025, 40 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 26 had negative basis [2] Metal - Precious metals had a volatile "Black Monday". Silver first soared and then plunged, dragging down other precious metals. International and domestic metal prices and futures contracts showed significant declines [4][5] - On December 29, 2025, CME Group raised metal futures trading margins, triggering price drops [5] - In 2025, silver prices broke a 45 - year record and were higher than crude oil prices, driven by industrial and investment demand [5] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Ore - Bauxite miner Axis has filed a $29 billion claim against Guinea [9] Energy and Chemicals - U.S. refineries are expected to have capacity outages in the coming weeks, with the scale increasing [10] - India's oil imports from Russia in December 2025 are expected to exceed 1 million barrels per day [10] Agricultural Products - China's grain output in 2025 was 1.43 trillion jin, a 1.2% increase from the previous year, mainly due to the increase in corn production [12] - As of December 2025, the autumn grain purchase volume exceeded 200 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32 million tons [13] Financial News Open Market - On December 29, 2025, the central bank conducted 482.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 415 billion yuan [14] Important News - The Chinese military conducted the "Justice Mission - 2025" exercise around Taiwan [15] - China will start to pay interest on digital RMB from January 1, 2026 [15] Bond Market - The bond market was generally weak, with treasury bond futures falling and bond yields rising [21] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0098 on December 29, 2025, down 13 points from the previous trading day [26] Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that in the short term, the bond market carry strategy is relatively certain, and there is room for the repair of long - end bonds [27] - CITIC Securities suggests paying attention to high - grade state - owned enterprise perpetual bonds in industries such as public utilities, transportation, and construction [27] Stock Market - A - shares showed a divergence between large and small indexes. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell [30] - Hong Kong stocks fluctuated, with the Hang Seng Index falling 0.71% [30]