投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 12 月 30 日） 一、动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 期货研究报告 二、能源化工 | 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/12/29 | -131.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/26 | -129.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/25 | -125.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/24 | -120.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/12/23 | -114.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/12/29 2025/12/26 2025/12/25 2025/12/24 2025/ ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 52 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2727.80 万吨，环比降 62.40 万吨，延续回落但仍处年内高位；其中巴西矿到 货降 65.80 万吨，澳矿则是微增 20.30 万吨，非澳巴矿到货环比降 16.90 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运大幅增加，全球矿石发运总量为 3677.10 万吨，环比增 212.58 万吨，再创年内单周 新高。增量主要源于主流矿商发运回升，四大矿商合计增 223.94 万吨；细分地区看澳矿、巴西矿分别增 163.08、81.77 万吨，非澳巴矿则是环比降 32.27 万吨，均位于年内高位。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量稳中有升，海外矿石供应相对积极。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term stock index fluctuates strongly: Recently, the trading volume of the stock market has gradually increased, and the stock index has risen continuously, indicating that the market risk appetite continues to recover. With the approaching of the new year, positive policy expectations are gradually fermenting. Coupled with the RMB appreciation, a large amount of relatively high - interest time deposits will mature next year, and the "re - allocation" may bring a large amount of incremental capital inflow to the stock market. The positive policy expectations and the capital inflow trend together form the medium - and long - term support for the stock index. As the stock index approaches the previous high, short - term attention should be paid to whether the stock index can break through the technical resistance of the previous high. Overall, the positive factors continue to ferment, and the stock index fluctuates strongly in the short term [3][9][80] - ETF options and stock index options: Adhere to bull spread or ratio spread. Considering that the stock index is upward in the medium - to - long - term, the idea of bull spread or ratio spread bullish can be maintained [4][81] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends - Last week, the stock index fluctuated and consolidated. The recent increase in trading volume and continuous rise of the stock index indicate the continuous recovery of market risk appetite. Positive policy expectations and capital inflow trends form the medium - and long - term support for the stock index. Short - term attention should be paid to the technical resistance of the previous high [9] - The closing prices and price changes of major spot indices such as the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are provided [12] 3.1.2 Option Price Trends - The weekly price changes of various option underlying assets are given. For example, 50ETF had a weekly decline of 1.79%, and 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.13% [16][17] - The weekly price changes of the main contracts of various option varieties, including the weekly price changes of call and put contracts at different exercise prices and different contract expiration months, are provided [18] 3.1.3 Stock Index Futures Basis and Monthly Differences - The basis of the four stock index futures varieties: The basis of IF and IH is at a normal quantile level, while IM and IC show a state of significant backwardation in the far - month futures. The inter - period spread between the current quarter and the next quarter of IC and IM futures has declined, indicating that market sentiment is relatively stable and the uncertainty risk in the far - month has decreased [22] 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicators - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options, including Shanghai Composite 50ETF options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF options, etc., and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided [35] 3.2.2 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets of various options, such as Shanghai Composite 50ETF options, Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF options, etc., are provided [53] 3.3 Conclusion - The same as the core viewpoints, short - term stock index fluctuates strongly, and ETF options and stock index options adhere to bull spread or ratio spread [80][81]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 下游需求疲弱，煤焦低位运行 核心观点 焦炭：截至 12 月 26 日当周，全样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂合计焦炭日 产量 109.47 万吨，周环比基本持平，小幅下降 0.02 万吨/天；全国 247 家钢厂日均铁水产量 226.58 万吨，焦炭供需均在低位企稳，基本面无明 显好转。整体来看，焦炭短期基本面依然疲弱，但需求端预期有所好转， 市场多空僵持，期货主力合约暂维持低位震荡运行，关注后续下游生产和 采购节奏。 焦煤：截至 12 月 26 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 74 万 吨，环比下降 1.8 万吨，同比偏低 2 万吨；焦化厂和钢厂焦炭日均产量 109.47 万吨，周环比小幅下降 0.02 万吨。进口方面，12 月截至 20 日， 288 口岸累计蒙煤通关 26498 车，环比 11 月的高基数进一步增长 23.0%，蒙煤高进口对国内煤价形成压制。供应整体持稳，需求维持低 位，焦煤供需格局中性仍偏宽松，使得产业链各环节焦煤均有所累库。整 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated higher with a daily increase of 0.71%, and the volume and open interest contracted. Currently, rebar supply has rebounded while demand is seasonally weak, with a weak fundamental situation. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season. However, the positive commodity sentiment means that the steel price is expected to continue an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily increase of 0.55%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coil has improved while the supply is at a low level, and the supply - demand pattern has improved, providing price support. However, the demand resilience is questionable, and the inventory level is high, so the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected to continue an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore rose strongly with a daily increase of 2.58%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, due to the structural contradiction in the spot market and positive commodity sentiment, iron ore is at a high level. However, the demand for ore is weakening while the supply remains high, with a weak fundamental situation and limited upward driving force. It is expected to continue a high - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to November 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 6,626.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among the main industries in the machinery industry, the total profit of 5 major industries increased, including a 4.8% increase in the general equipment manufacturing industry, 4.6% in the special equipment manufacturing industry, 7.5% in the automobile manufacturing industry, 4.2% in the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, and 3% in the instrument and meter manufacturing industry [7]. - According to the production schedule report of three major white - goods released by Industrial Online, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in January 2026 was 34.53 million units, a 6% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year. Specifically, the production schedule of household air conditioners in January was 18.51 million units, an 11% increase; the production schedule of refrigerators was 7.92 million units, a 3.6% increase; and the production schedule of washing machines was 8.1 million units, a 1.8% decrease [8]. - As of December 27, 14 steel enterprises announced the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and assessment and monitoring. To date, 264 steel enterprises have been publicly announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,270 yuan, Tianjin was 3,170 yuan, and the national average was 3,326 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price was 3,280 yuan, Tianjin was 3,180 yuan, and the national average was 3,294 yuan. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,940 yuan. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,090 yuan. - PB powder (Shandong ports): The price was 799 yuan. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis): The price was 782 yuan. - Shipping costs: Australia was 8.89 yuan, and Brazil was 23.43 yuan. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 107.15 yuan. - Platts Index (CFR, 62%): The price was 107.85 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,130 yuan, with a 0.71% increase, the highest price was 3,150 yuan, the lowest was 3,116 yuan, the trading volume was 1,051,146 lots, a decrease of 81,487 lots, the open interest was 1,530,792 lots, a decrease of 3,632 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,287 yuan, with a 0.55% increase, the highest price was 3,308 yuan, the lowest was 3,280 yuan, the trading volume was 511,982 lots, an increase of 21,578 lots, the open interest was 1,276,297 lots, an increase of 43,907 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 796.5 yuan, with a 2.58% increase, the highest price was 803.0 yuan, the lowest was 782.0 yuan, the trading volume was 461,928 lots, an increase of 170,810 lots, the open interest was 629,681 lots, an increase of 48,950 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, 45 - port iron ore inventory, and 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, as well as charts on steel mill production such as blast furnace operating rates, electric furnace operating rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills [16][21][29]. 5. Future Outlook - Rebar: Supply and demand are weakly stable. Rebar weekly production increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week, and supply continues to rebound but remains at a relatively low level. Demand is seasonally weak, with both weekly apparent demand and daily high - frequency transactions declining. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, and it is expected to continue an oscillatory trend due to positive commodity sentiment [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has improved, with an expanding inventory decline. Weekly production increased by 16,300 tons week - on - week, at a relatively low level within the year. Demand is showing improvement, with weekly apparent demand increasing by 87,600 tons week - on - week. However, the demand resilience is questionable, and the high inventory level limits the upward driving force. It is expected to continue an oscillatory trend [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken, with port inventory rising to a high level. Steel mill production is stable, and terminal ore consumption is stable. Overseas ore supply is positive, with a significant increase in miner shipments. It is expected to continue a high - level oscillatory trend, and the pre - holiday steel mill restocking is a positive factor [38].

Report Investment Rating - The report does not mention any investment ratings for the industry. Core Views - **Copper**: Macro factors continue to drive up copper prices, but caution is needed for a potential high - level pullback before the New Year's Day holiday. Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts. The market liquidity recovered after the yen interest rate hike in late December, pushing up copper prices. However, the pressure on the mid - and downstream industries has been increasing, with the basis and calendar spreads weakening and the social inventory of electrolytic copper rising significantly. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton, much lower than in 2025, which may lead to production cuts and intensify supply shortage expectations. The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. Also, with the approaching New Year's Day holiday, there may be an increasing willingness to close positions, so a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: Macro factors are positive, while industrial factors are negative, leading to high - level oscillations in aluminum prices. Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike. On the industrial side, as aluminum prices rose, downstream hesitation increased, and the spot discount remained weak. The expectation of aluminum replacing copper in the home appliance sector provides support for long - term demand. The short - term rise in aluminum prices is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the yen interest rate hike, market liquidity recovered, the US dollar index showed a weak performance, and copper prices trended upward [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, copper prices accelerated their upward movement, with SHFE copper reaching the 100,000 - yuan mark, and open interest rising to 660,000 contracts, indicating high short - term capital attention and a significant increase in volatility [5][16]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to recover from a low level and was approaching the same - period level of previous years. On December 26, Mysteel's port inventory of copper ore was 670,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons. The benchmark processing fee for copper concentrate long - term contracts in 2026 is set at $0/ton and $0 cents/pound, which lays a price support foundation for 2026 from the industrial perspective [25]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 202,200 tons, a weekly increase of 27,700 tons. On December 26, the combined inventory of COMEX and LME was 640,000 tons, a weekly increase of 17,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Processing - SMM expects the total output of the copper rod industry in December to decrease by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of operating rates, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points [29]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the volatility increased. The macro environment improved after the yen interest rate hike [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - On December 26, the port inventory of bauxite was 2.60207 billion tons, a decrease of 5.93 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 821.07 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina prices rebounded significantly, driven by the macro improvement, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants shrank in the short term as the electrolytic aluminum price oscillated at a high level [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 25, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 612,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous week. The overseas inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 527,500 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from the previous week. The high - level operation of aluminum prices has suppressed downstream consumption, and the domestic inventory has increased significantly [50]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Processing - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased significantly, reflecting the suppression of downstream demand by high aluminum prices. On December 25, the inventory of aluminum rods was 96,000 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week, indicating a decrease in downstream operating rates and the start of inventory consumption [55][57]. 4. Conclusion - **Copper**: The short - term upward momentum is strong, but the price is at a historical high, and there is a divergence between the domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) and the strong macro expectations. With the approaching New Year's Day holiday, a high - level pullback risk should be watched out for [5][60]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term rise is largely driven by the strong performance of copper prices, and its own upward momentum is weak, with significant divergence between bulls and bears. Attention can be continuously paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: On the night of last Friday, the Shanghai copper futures price continued to rise, breaking through the 100,000 RMB mark, and the main contract price once reached 100,200 RMB. In the morning, it opened lower and then rose, followed by high - level volatile trading. In the afternoon, there was an obvious decline in positions and a sharp drop, basically erasing the gains from Friday night. The intraday high dropped by more than 4,000 RMB/ton. With the New Year's Day holiday approaching and the short - term large increase in copper prices, the willingness of funds to take profits is strong. Investors are advised to pay attention to the risk of continuous high - level decline and can focus on the support of the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages [6] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rose and then fell today, and the position volume declined along with the price in the afternoon. At the macro level, non - ferrous metals and precious metals collectively dropped in the afternoon, and the willingness of funds to take profits before the New Year's Day holiday is strong. Compared with copper, aluminum is more restricted by the industry. At the industrial level, high aluminum prices suppress downstream consumption, and the industry is passively following. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7] - **Nickel**: The nickel price soared last Friday, and the main contract price once approached the 130,000 RMB mark. It dropped in the afternoon today, and the position volume decreased slightly. At the macro level, non - ferrous metals and precious metals collectively dropped in the afternoon, and the willingness of funds to take profits before the New Year's Day holiday is strong. At the industrial level, the industrial policy disturbances in Indonesia have promoted the rise of nickel prices. In the short term, as the main nickel contract price has risen to the 130,000 RMB mark, rebounding nearly 20,000 RMB/ton from the low level, the willingness of short - term bulls to take profits is strong, and the game between long and short positions has intensified. Continuously pay attention to the pressure at the 130,000 RMB mark [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Looking ahead to tomorrow, as the year - end approaches, the trading activity of both buyers and sellers has decreased. Under the pressure of the 100,000 RMB copper price, the downstream rigid - demand procurement has also significantly decreased, and the situation of large discounts in the Shanghai copper spot market is difficult to change. On December 29, the social inventory of electrolytic copper of Mysteel was 224,300 tons, an increase of 22,100 tons compared with the 25th and an increase of 44,300 tons compared with the 22nd [10] - **Aluminum**: On December 29, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum of Mysteel was 638,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons compared with the 25th and an increase of 50,000 tons compared with the 22nd [10] - **Nickel**: On December 29, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 127,700 - 135,700 RMB/ton, with an average price of 131,700 RMB/ton, a rise of 2,000 RMB/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 7,200 - 7,200 RMB/ton, with an average premium of 7,200 RMB/ton, a rise of 100 RMB/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 RMB/ton [11] 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [23][25][27] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39]

Group 1: Report Core View - Last week, the gold price continued to rise, with New York gold breaking through $4,500 and Shanghai gold breaking through the 1,000-yuan mark. After the meetings of the US and Japanese central banks ended, market liquidity recovered, and the US dollar index remained weak, which was positive for the gold price. In the long run, although the gold price has broken through the late-October high, its overall performance is far inferior to other precious metals and copper, mainly due to the high short-term market risk appetite and the decline in the safe-haven demand for gold. Before the New Year's Day holiday, continuous attention should be paid to the long-short game at the $4,500 mark of New York gold, and beware of the risk of a high-level pullback before the holiday [5][21] Group 2: Market Review 2.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing prices [9] 2.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | December 26 | December 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,562.00 | $4,368.70 | 4.42% | | COMEX Silver | $79.68 | $67.40 | 18.22% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 1,016.30 yuan | 979.90 yuan | 3.71% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 18,319.00 yuan | 15,376.00 yuan | 19.14% | | US Dollar Index | 98.03 | 98.72 | -0.69% | | USD/CNH | 7.00 | 7.03 | -0.41% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.91 | 1.92 | -0.01 | | S&P 500 | 6,929.94 | 6,834.50 | 1.40% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $56.93 | $56.65 | 0.49% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 57.26 | 64.82 | -11.67% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 55.48 | 63.73 | -12.95% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,071.13 tons | 1,052.54 tons | 18.59 tons | | iShare Gold ETF | 492.64 tons | 491.82 tons | 0.82 tons | [10] Group 3: Liquidity Recovery after Japanese Yen Interest Rate Hike - After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, the market showed a "boot landing" situation, with a significant recovery in short-term liquidity. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling to the 98 mark, which was positive for the gold price [12] Group 4: Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1,563.77 tons, an increase of 19.41 tons from the previous week. After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, precious metals generally rose, with silver's increase significantly larger than that of gold, and the gold-silver ratio continued to weaken, dropping below 60 last week [16][18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the commodity futures agricultural products sector is that the prices of major varieties such as soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are in a state of shock and weakness in the short - term and medium - term, with limited upward momentum [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoints**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all shock and weakness, and the reference view is also shock and weakness [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic inventory is high, the resumption of oil mill operating rates intensifies inventory pressure, the contract volume of oil mills drops significantly, and trading volume is light. The terminal's enthusiasm for chasing up prices is limited, and the market is concerned about rumors of soybean arrival and customs clearance policies. Although the soybean meal futures price has rebounded, the sustainability is not strong, showing a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and overall it is in a low - level shock [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoints**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all shock and weakness, and the reference view is also shock and weakness [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic palm oil market shows a pattern of strong outside and weak inside. The main driving force is that Malaysian palm oil has entered the seasonal production reduction cycle, with a 7.44% month - on - month decrease in production from December 1 - 20, and the improvement of Malaysian palm oil exports. However, Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel quota is basically flat, limiting the imagination space for palm oil's biodiesel demand. The domestic fundamentals are relatively weak, with high port inventories. Before the de - stocking signal is clear, the short - term palm oil futures price is in a low - level wide - range shock [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoints**: The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all shock and weakness, and the reference view is also shock and weakness [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by factors such as US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复利好金价，避险需求 下降利空金价 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 上涨 | 观望 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 核心逻辑：上周金价持续上行，纽约金突破 4500 美元，沪金突破 1000 元关口。周四海外开始圣诞 假期，国内波动下降。拉长时间看，随着美日央行会议相继结束，市场 ...