华福证券 基本数据 日期 2024-11-29 收盘价： 4.05 港元 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 11,095.27/11,095.27 流通市值(百万港元) 44,935.82 每股净资产(港元) 1.33 资产负债率(%) 50.39 一年内最高/最低价(港元) 5.14/3.18 天气异常、内需复苏不及预期、新品拓展不及预期、原材料涨价。 财务数据和估值 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E 主营收入（百万元） 16,774 23,214 26,800 30,404 34,687 增长率 3% 38% 15% 13% 14% 归母净利润（百万 元） 2,139 3,074 3,616 4,202 4,776 增长率 4% 44% 18% 16% 14% 司 मे 波司登（03998.HK） FY25H1 业绩点评：中报高质量兑现，期待旺季 销售 事件：公司于 11.28 发布 FY25H1 业绩，上半年实现营收 88.04 亿元，同比 +17.8%，实现权益股东应占溢利 11.30 亿元，同比+23%，每股派息 6.0 港 仙，符合预期。 经营分析： 羽绒服业务引领增长，聚焦高 ...

Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating with a current price of HKD 38 70 [3] Core Views - Overseas and TOP TOY segments performed strongly with steady gross margin improvement and deepening IP strategy [2] - Revenue for 24Q1-3 reached RMB 12 281 billion yoy +22 8% with adjusted net profit of RMB 1 928 billion yoy +13 7% [4] - Overseas same-store sales showed high single-digit growth while TOP TOY achieved profitability for four consecutive quarters [4] - Gross margin improved to 44 1% in 24Q1-3 yoy +3 7pct driven by IP strategy and product mix optimization [4] - Sales expense ratio increased due to expansion of directly operated stores particularly in strategic overseas markets like the US [4] - The company is accelerating store expansion with 7 186 MINISO stores and 234 TOP TOY stores as of September 30 2024 [4] - IP strategy continues to expand with over 100 global IP collaborations and the launch of MINISO LAND a new store format [4] Financial Performance - 24Q1-3 revenue breakdown: Domestic RMB 7 738 billion yoy +22 8% Overseas RMB 4 543 billion yoy +41 5% [4] - Adjusted net profit margin for 24Q1-3 was 15 7% yoy -1 3pct excluding net exchange gains/losses [4] - FY2024E revenue is projected at RMB 15 391 billion yoy +34 1% with adjusted net profit of RMB 2 419 billion yoy +36 7% [7] - FY2024E gross margin is expected to reach 43 08% with a net profit margin of 15 71% [7] - ROE for FY2024E is forecasted at 24 94% with ROIC at 23 96% [7] Store Expansion - MINISO store count reached 7 186 as of September 30 2024 with 4 250 in China and 2 936 overseas [4] - TOP TOY store count reached 234 with 29 directly operated stores and 205 third-party stores [4] - The company plans to add 340-450 domestic MINISO stores and 550-650 overseas MINISO stores in 2024 [4] - As of 24Q3 domestic store expansion progress was 72%-93% while overseas progress was 69%-82% [4] IP Strategy - MINISO has collaborated with over 100 global IPs including Hello Kitty Barbie Harry Potter and Disney [4] - The new MINISO LAND store format launched in Shanghai with a monthly revenue of RMB 12 03 million during trial operation [4] - MINISO LAND stores are planned for key cities like Beijing Guangzhou and Chengdu further strengthening the IP-driven brand positioning [4] Valuation - FY2024E PE is projected at 16X with FY2025E and FY2026E PE at 13X and 11X respectively [4] - FY2025E and FY2026E net profit are forecasted at RMB 3 114 billion and RMB 4 167 billion respectively [4]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2024 Q1-Q3 performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue reaching 1 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91 5%, and net profit attributable to the parent company improving to -3 5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69 0% [1] - ADAS products showed strong growth momentum, with Q3 revenue reaching 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87 1%, and shipments reaching 131,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 150% [1] - The company's market share in the ADAS sector reached 35 0% in the first three quarters of 2024, maintaining its leading position in the industry [1] - The company's robot business achieved significant breakthroughs, with Q3 revenue reaching 60 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44 5%, and shipments reaching 7,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38% [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 1 755 26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56 70%, and is projected to grow to 4 142 51 billion yuan by 2026 [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to improve significantly, from -534 33 million yuan in 2024 to 44 71 million yuan in 2026 [1] - The company's gross margin for ADAS products increased from 10 6% in Q1 2024 to 14 1% in Q3 2024, with the overall gross margin reaching 17 5% in Q3 2024 [1] Business Highlights - The company's MX products have secured partnerships with 7 automakers in the L2+ segment, and as of November 2024, the company has established collaborations with 28 automakers and Tier 1 suppliers, with 92 models designated for production [1] - The company has made significant progress in the robot sector, with partnerships increasing from 2,400 to 2,600, and multiple new products receiving mass production designations from leading robot companies [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of L4 laser radar solutions transitioning from mechanical to semi-solid-state, with mass production designations secured with global ride-hailing platforms and Xiaoma Zhixing [1] Market Position and Outlook - The company's ADAS products are expected to continue growing, driven by the mass production of models such as BYD Han and Seal, Geely Galaxy E8, and GAC Aion RT, which are equipped with laser radar [1] - The company has accumulated high-quality designated projects with overseas leading automakers, providing momentum for development beyond 2026 [1] - The robot business is expected to contribute significantly to revenue and gross profit, with shipments projected to exceed six figures by 2025 [1] Valuation and Forecast - The company's 2024-2026 revenue forecasts have been adjusted to 17 6/28 6/41 4 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company adjusted to -5 3/-2 5/0 4 billion yuan [2] - The price-to-sales ratio (P/S) for the company is 4 5/2 8/1 9 times based on the closing price on November 29, 2024 [2]

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2024 年 11 月 30 日 公司盈利预测与估值简表 公司研究 海外进入旺季，哈利波特联名表现良好 ——名创优品（9896.HK）2024 年三季报点评 要点 公司 3Q2024 营收同增 19.3%，公司权益股东应占利润同增 4.8% 11 月 29 日,公司公布 2024 年三季报：1-3Q2024 实现营业收入 122.8 亿元， 同增 22.8%,实现公司权益股东应占利润 18.1 亿元，对应基本 EPS 为 1.54 元，同增 14.1%；实现经调整净利润 19.3 亿元，同增 13.7%。 单季度拆分来看，3Q2024 实现营业收入 45.2 亿元，同增 19.3%，实现公司 权益股东应占利润 6.4 亿元，同增 4.8%，对应基本 EPS0.52 元；实现经调 整净利润 6.9 亿元，同增 6.9%。 公司 3Q2024 综合毛利率同比上升 3.11pct，期间费用率同比上升 5.93pct 1-3Q2024 公司综合毛利率为 44.13%，同比上升 3.71 个百分点。单季度拆 分来看，3Q2024 公司综合毛利率为 44.89%，同比上升 3.11 个百分点。公 司毛利率同比高增主要由于 ...

港股通 证券研究报告 波司登 (3998 HK) 品牌羽绒服增长亮眼，盈利能力稳健 华泰研究 中报点评 2024 年 11 月 29 日│中国香港 服装 公司公布 FY1H25 业绩情况：公司收入同比+17.8%至 88.04 亿元，归母净 利润同比+23.0%至 11.30 亿元。中期业绩的亮眼增长主要得益于核心业务 品牌羽绒服的优异表现，FY1H25 公司品牌羽绒服/OEM/女装/多元化服装业 务营收分别同比+22.7%/+13.4%/-21.5%/+21.8%至 60.63/23.16/3.08/1.17 亿。此外，公司宣派中期股息 6.0 港仙/股。考虑到公司新品类带来新增长 动力、渠道优化及精细化运营成效佳，市场竞争力提升，维持"买入"评级。 品类持续迭代创新，线上线下均实现快速增长 在公司坚持品牌引领、产品创新和渠道优化的策略下，主品牌波司登收入同 比+19.4%至 52.80 亿元。上半财年，主品牌打造了防晒衣、单壳冲锋衣、 冲锋衣鹅绒服系列等爆款产品，实现品类延申，给淡季销售带来突破。此外， 雪中飞/冰洁期内收入分别同比+47.1%/+61.5%至 3.90 和 0.21 亿元。雪中 飞得益于 ...

2024 年 11 月 30 日 公司研究 3Q 业绩超预期，或将加大 Keeta 投入力度 ——美团-W（3690.HK）2024 年三季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------|------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------| ...

上 市 公 司 公用事业 2024 年 11 月 29 日 香港中华煤气 (00003) ——城燃回暖高分红 绿色能源添动能 买入（首次评级）⚫ 公司城燃行业起步于香港，目前已遍及全国。香港中华煤气有限公司成立于 1862 年，并早在 1960 年即在香港上市。1995 年，公司进入内地市场，开启了全国化的探索和布局，目前已经发展为五 大全国性城市燃气企业之一。截至 2024 年上半年，公司业务已遍布 29 个省、直辖市及自治区， 内地拥有 321 个城市燃气项目，燃气用户规模超 4000 万户。1H24 公司在中国香港及内地天然气 销量约 190.3 亿 m³（其中香港 4.3 亿 m³），约占全国天然气表观消费量的 8.9%。 ⚫ 香港业务盈利稳定，未来仍具提价空间。香港燃气市场已进入成熟期，公司用户规模温和稳定增长。 2023 年公司在香港覆盖用户数突破 200 万户，市场覆盖率达 75%，主要以居民及商业客户为主。 2023 年香港燃气销售结构中，住宅、商业、工业分别占比 54%、40%、6%，随着居民及商业用 气需求增加，我们测算至 2028 年末，香港业务销气量较 2023 年底仍存在 7%的增量 ...

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 哈 证券研究报告 公司简介 公司为全球生物药 CRDMO(研发制造服务外包)龙头药明生物的并 表附属公司，目前，药明生物持股公司 50.91%、由药明康德持股 98.56%的并表子公司合全药业持股 30.34%。 投资逻辑 XDC 赛道爆发式成长，公司为国际领先的全面能力 CRDMO 龙头。① 随着第一三共改写乳腺癌诊疗标准的 HER2 ADC（人表皮生长因子 受体抗体偶联药物）药物面世，2023 年全球 ADC 市场首次突破百 亿美元。②ADC/XDC 行业高景气引发投融资及并购/BD（商务拓展） 火热，过去一年并购交易金额大于 10 亿美金的交易事件达到 7 起， 活跃的资本市场交易则进一步加速 ADC/XDC 药企管线开发。相对 于传统大分子生物药，结合大小分子的偶联药物开发难度更大，生 产相对复杂。高壁垒催生高外包率带动 CRDMO 需求提升。③据弗 若斯特沙利文数据，公司为全球 XDC CRDMO 的第一梯队、国内龙 头，享行业高增速红利。1H24 公司的收入、毛利及净利润同比增 长 67.6%、133.4%及 175.5%。 全链条 XDC 一站式平台实力，支撑订单 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | 天立国际控股（ 01773 ） | | 证券研究报告 2024 年 11 月 30 日 | | | 投资评级 | | | 坚持高质量多元发展 | 行业 | 非必需性消费 / 支援服 务 | | | 6 个月评级 | 买入（ ...