2026 年 2 月 4 日 4、业务进展：AI 应用与自动驾驶持续推进，商业化仍处早期。自 25Q3 起公 司开始单独披露 AI 应用进展，涵盖文库、网盘、企业级 AI 工具及出海产品 等，对其商业化前景持偏积极态度，强调其与 AI 云、昆仑芯的协同效应。自 动驾驶方面，Robotaxi 订单量保持加速增长，公司已公告与 Uber、Lyft 达 成合作，并明确将于英国推进无人驾驶出租车试运行，标志着其国际化布局迈 出实质性一步；但相关业务仍处于投入与规模扩张阶段，对短期业绩贡献有限。 5、昆仑芯：自研算力平台协同价值提升，短期仍以战略支撑为主。昆仑芯作 为百度自研 AI 芯片与算力平台的重要组成部分，市场关注度持续提升。昆仑 芯深度参与百度智能云的整体交付，同时开始面向通信、金融、能源、制造等 行业，成为"云+算力"解决方案的一部分。26 年初公司公告建议分拆昆仑芯 独立上市，旨在提升昆仑芯在客户、供应商及潜在战略合作伙伴中的形象，并 增强其在业务谈判中的地位，使公司可通过持有的股份受益于昆仑芯的增长。 盈利预测、估值与评级：AI 原生广告提升传统搜索广告变现能力；自研大模 型+计算平台+自研芯片形成软硬协 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a comprehensive score of "7.0" to the company, suggesting a recommendation for subscription [12]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer of intelligent equipment, particularly in the lithium battery sector, with significant market shares both globally and in China [1][4]. - Financial performance has shown volatility, but a notable recovery is expected in 2025, with projected net profit growth of 424%-529% year-on-year [2][12]. - The report highlights the company's strong international presence and diverse application areas, which position it well to capitalize on growth opportunities in various industries [4]. Company Overview - The company operates in multiple sectors, including lithium batteries, photovoltaic cells, and 3C manufacturing, and is the largest supplier of lithium battery intelligent equipment globally, holding a 15.5% market share [1]. - Key clients include major players such as CATL, Tesla, Volkswagen, BMW, and LG Energy [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the years 2022-2024 is projected at approximately RMB 138.36 billion, RMB 164.83 billion, and RMB 117.73 billion, with a 14.92% year-on-year increase in the first nine months of 2025 [2]. - Net profit for the same years is expected to be RMB 23.18 billion, RMB 17.74 billion, and RMB 2.86 billion, with a significant increase of 94.97% in the first nine months of 2025 [2]. Industry Status and Outlook - The global electric vehicle market is expected to reach 49.5 million units by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.8% from 2024 to 2029 [3]. - The annual installed capacity of global energy storage batteries is projected to reach 891.1 GWh by 2029, with a CAGR of 35.4% [3]. - The solid-state battery intelligent equipment market is anticipated to grow to RMB 15.6 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 58.0% [3]. Advantages and Opportunities - The company benefits from being the largest supplier in the lithium battery sector, with a strong market share that allows it to leverage both incremental and existing market opportunities [4]. - It has a robust international strategy, positioning itself to capture growth in overseas markets with significant potential [4]. - The company employs a cross-industry development strategy to mitigate risks associated with cyclical fluctuations in any single industry [4]. Use of Proceeds - Approximately 40% of the net proceeds (or HKD 1.6664 billion) will be used to expand the global R&D, sales, and service network [6]. - About 30% (or HKD 1.2498 billion) will be allocated to deepen the platform strategy and expand the product portfolio in the new energy intelligent equipment sector [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a comprehensive score of "7.0" to the company, suggesting a recommendation for subscription [10]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leading smart equipment manufacturer, particularly in the lithium battery sector, with a significant market share of 15.5% globally and 19.0% in China [1]. - Financial performance has shown volatility, with total revenues projected at approximately RMB 138.36 billion, RMB 164.83 billion, and RMB 117.73 billion for the years 2022-2024, while net profits for the same period are expected to be RMB 23.18 billion, RMB 17.74 billion, and RMB 2.86 billion respectively [2]. - The global electric vehicle market is anticipated to reach 49.5 million units by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.8% from 2024 to 2029 [3]. Company Overview - The company operates in diverse application fields including lithium batteries, photovoltaic cells, 3C manufacturing, smart logistics, hydrogen production, fuel cell production, automotive manufacturing, and laser precision processing [1]. - It has established a strong customer base, including major players like CATL, Tesla, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes, LG Energy, and SK On [1]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for the first nine months of 2025 is reported at RMB 103.88 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.92%, while net profit for the same period is RMB 11.86 billion, showing a significant growth of 94.97% [2]. - The projected net profit for the full year of 2025 is expected to be between RMB 15 billion and RMB 18 billion, indicating a year-on-year increase of 424% to 529% [10]. Industry Outlook - The global energy storage battery installation is expected to reach 891.1 GWh by 2029, with a CAGR of 35.4% from 2024 to 2029 [3]. - The solid-state battery smart equipment market is projected to grow to RMB 15.6 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 58.0% [3]. Advantages and Opportunities - The company benefits from being the largest supplier of lithium battery smart equipment globally, with a strong market presence in both incremental and existing market opportunities [4]. - It has a leading international presence, allowing it to capitalize on growth potential in overseas markets [4]. - The company employs a cross-industry development strategy to capture growth opportunities across various sectors, effectively mitigating risks associated with industry cycles [4]. Use of Proceeds - Approximately 40% of the net proceeds (or HKD 1.664 billion) will be allocated to expanding global R&D, sales, and service networks [6]. - About 30% (or HKD 1.249 billion) will be used to deepen platform strategies and expand the product portfolio in the new energy smart equipment sector [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for China Hongqiao, with a revised target price of HK$45, up from HK$39, reflecting a 27.5% upside potential from the current price of HK$35.30 [1][3]. Core Insights - The global aluminium deficit is expected to persist through 2026-27, driven by high utilization rates in China and limited new capacity overseas. This is anticipated to lead to a 15% year-on-year increase in aluminium prices in 2026 [1][7]. - Earnings forecasts have been revised upwards, with a projected core net profit of RMB26.2 billion for 2025, representing a 7% year-on-year growth, and an acceleration to 34% growth in 2026, primarily due to higher aluminium prices [1][7]. - The report indicates that a 1% increase in aluminium prices could boost 2026 earnings by 2.3%, while a 1% decrease in coal prices would increase earnings by 0.3% [1][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for China Hongqiao are as follows: RMB156,596 million for 2025, RMB167,859 million for 2026, and RMB162,737 million for 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 0.3%, 7.2%, and -3.1% [2][26]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB26,262.3 million for 2025, RMB36,049.2 million for 2026, and RMB32,879.0 million for 2027, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of RMB2.71, RMB3.63, and RMB3.31 [2][26]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 12.7x for 2025, 8.7x for 2026, and 9.5x for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [2][26]. Market and Share Performance - The market capitalization of China Hongqiao is approximately HK$350.3 billion, with an average turnover of HK$1,565.4 million over the past three months [4]. - The share price has shown significant performance, with a 73.5% increase over the past six months [6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of Chuangxin Industries with a BUY rating and a target price (TP) of HK$32, representing a 28% upside from the current price of HK$25 [3][8]. Core Insights - Chuangxin Industries presents a unique growth opportunity in the aluminium sector, driven by capacity expansion in Saudi Arabia and a significant cost advantage due to low green energy costs in China [1]. - The ongoing development of wind and solar power sources is expected to further reduce electricity costs by 2026-2027, enhancing profitability [1]. - The tight supply in the aluminium market is anticipated to support higher aluminium prices, with a 1% increase in aluminium prices projected to boost Chuangxin's earnings by 2.5% in 2026 [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 13,815 million in FY23A to RMB 20,091 million in FY27E, with a notable increase of 29.1% in FY26E [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise significantly from RMB 1,003.6 million in FY23A to RMB 4,819.4 million in FY27E, reflecting strong growth potential [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from RMB 0.67 in FY23A to RMB 2.32 in FY27E, indicating robust profitability growth [2]. Capacity Expansion - Chuangxin currently operates 788 kt of electrolytic aluminium capacity in China and is expanding with a 500 kt project in Saudi Arabia, expected to be completed by Q2 2027 [7][14][16]. - The company has a high self-sufficiency rate for electricity, with plans to achieve over 50% of its power supply from green energy by 2027, significantly reducing costs [25][34][37]. Cost Structure - The current electricity cost for Chuangxin is RMB 0.33/kWh, lower than the industry average of RMB 0.40/kWh, with expectations to reduce this further to below RMB 0.20/kWh through green energy initiatives [25][37]. - The company’s captive coal-fired power plants provide 100% electricity self-sufficiency for aluminium smelting, enhancing its cost leadership in the sector [24][25]. Market Position - Chuangxin is positioned as a significant player in the aluminium market, being the 12th largest electrolytic aluminium producer in China as of 2024 [7]. - The company has established a strong customer base, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from major clients in the non-ferrous metal processing sector [39][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is a leader in the snack retail sector, with a significant market presence and a strong growth trajectory. The merger of its two brands has positioned it as the largest snack retail chain in China by GMV as of 2024 [8][14] - The industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size projected to increase from 73 billion in 2019 to 1,297 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 77.8% [8] - The company's revenue is primarily generated through a franchise model, with over 98.5% of sales coming from franchise stores, allowing for rapid expansion and high operational efficiency [23][27] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates under two main brands, providing a wide range of snack products and has established a robust supply chain to ensure competitive pricing and product availability [14] - As of November 2025, the company had 21,041 stores across 28 provinces in China, with 59% located in county and town areas [14][18] 2. Industry Dynamics - The snack retail sector is characterized by a dual oligopoly, with the company and its main competitor expected to hold approximately 75.6% of the market share by 2024 [8] - The shift towards discount retailing is driven by consumer demand for value and the inefficiencies of traditional retail channels [8] 3. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 645 billion, 822 billion, and 944 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of 26 billion, 32 billion, and 39 billion [8] - The company has shown a significant improvement in profitability, with net profit margins increasing from 1.7% in 2022 to 3.4% in 2025 [48] 4. Operational Efficiency - The company has a high inventory turnover rate, significantly outperforming its peers, which contributes to its operational efficiency [50] - The gross margin has improved from 7.5% in 2022 to 9.7% in 2025, reflecting enhanced supply chain integration and cost management [42][48] 5. Future Outlook - The company is exploring new store formats, including discount supermarkets, to enhance revenue streams and improve profitability [8][14] - The management team is stable and experienced, with a focus on strategic planning and operational execution [58]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [3] Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of AI large model services in China, focusing on the development of general large models (AGI) and has established a comprehensive model product matrix, including multi-modal, agent, and coding models [15][20] - Revenue is expected to grow rapidly, with projections of RMB 7.4 billion, RMB 15.3 billion, and RMB 28.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 138.1%, 106.2%, and 87.9% [18] - The company has a strong emphasis on R&D, with expenses increasing significantly, indicating a commitment to enhancing model competitiveness [17][50] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2019 and has positioned itself as a leading AI company in China, focusing on the development of general large models [20] - It has supported over 8,000 institutional clients and covered approximately 80 million devices as of mid-2025 [20] Revenue Growth - Revenue has expanded from RMB 60 million in 2022 to RMB 310 million in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 130% [15][37] - The majority of revenue comes from localized deployment, which accounts for over 80% of total revenue, driven by demand for data security and compliance [16][37] R&D Investment - R&D expenses surged from RMB 80 million in 2022 to RMB 1.6 billion in the first half of 2025, representing 835% of revenue [17][50] - The company is transitioning its R&D cost structure from labor-intensive to compute-intensive, reflecting a shift in focus towards computational resources [54] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to have negative earnings per share (EPS) of -7.79, -8.14, and -7.26 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [18] - The report estimates a reasonable total value of RMB 107.36 billion, corresponding to a fair value of HKD 273.22 per share [18] Market Position - The company ranks first among independent general large model developers in China based on revenue for 2024, with a market share of approximately 6.6% [20] - The competitive landscape in the AI large model market is fragmented, and the company aims to enhance its market share through significant R&D investments [50]

2025Q4 业绩前瞻：零售承压见底，新业务亏 损收窄 买入（维持） 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,307,627 | 1,380,807 | 1,466,767 | | 同比（%） | 3.67% | 6.80% | 12.84% | 5.60% | 6.23% | | 归母净利润（百万元） %） 净利润（百万元） 同比Non-（GAAP | 35,200 | 47,827 | 26,305 | 28,935 | 35,590 | | 同比（%） | 24.73% | 35.90% | -45.00% | 10.00% | 23.00% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 11.1 | 15.0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 11.2 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） PE ...

证券研究报告·海外公司研究简报·食物饮品(HS) 鸣鸣很忙（01768.HK） 2026 年 02 月 03 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 国内休闲食饮连锁零售龙头，开启量贩零食 3.0 时代 买入（首次） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,295 | 39,344 | 64,522 | 82,200 | 94,385 | | 同比（%） | 140.22 | 282.15 | 64.00 | 27.40 | 14.82 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 217.43 | 833.70 | 2,297.55 | 3,020.41 | 3,732.72 | | 同比（%） | 203.45 | 283.44 | 175.58 | 31.46 | 23.58 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 235.00 | 843.70 | 2,591.11 | 3,225.91 | 3,921.49 | | 同比（ ...

| Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 10,295 | 39,344 | 64,522 | 82,200 | 94,385 | | 同比（%） | 140.22 | 282.15 | 64.00 | 27.40 | 14.82 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 217.43 | 833.70 | 2,297.55 | 3,020.41 | 3,732.72 | | 同比（%） | 203.45 | 283.44 | 175.58 | 31.46 | 23.58 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 235.00 | 843.70 | 2,591.11 | 3,225.91 | 3,921.49 | | 同比（%） | 190.12 | 259.02 | 207.11 | 24.50 | 21.56 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.01 | 3.87 | 10.66 | 14.02 | 17.32 ...