Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.9%. The gross margin was 44.2%, up by 0.8 percentage points. Operating profit was 710 million yuan, down 4.05% year-over-year, while adjusted net profit was 590 million yuan, down 4.9% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.3%, down 3.3 percentage points [5] - The company expects revenues of 20.54 billion, 24.43 billion, and 28.28 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 21%, 19%, and 16%. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.76 billion, 3.35 billion, and 4.06 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 1%, 21%, and 21% respectively [6] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 2.5 billion yuan, up 9.1% year-over-year, with same-store sales improving from a high single-digit decline to a mid-single-digit decline. The company is shifting from rapid store expansion to a focus on high-quality growth, resulting in a net reduction of 111 stores [9] - Overseas revenue reached 1.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 30.3%, accounting for 36% of total revenue. The number of overseas stores increased to 3,213, with a net addition of 95 stores [9] - The company anticipates that as overseas operations become more refined, the net profit margin per store will have room for improvement despite initial pressure from upfront costs associated with rapid expansion [9] Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenues of 16.99 billion, 20.54 billion, 24.43 billion, and 28.28 billion yuan for the years 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 23%, 21%, 19%, and 16% [10] - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 2.72 billion, 2.76 billion, 3.35 billion, and 4.06 billion yuan for the same years, with adjusted net profit margins of 16%, 13%, 14%, and 14% respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [1][3] Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 2025 revenue reached 86.56 billion, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth, with operating profit at 10.57 billion, up 102.8%, and adjusted net profit at 10.95 billion, increasing by 46.2% [1][6] - The report expresses long-term optimism regarding the company's domestic core business barriers and growth potential, alongside new growth opportunities from overseas expansion [1][6] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023: 276.85 billion - 2024: 337.59 billion - 2025E: 390.78 billion - 2026E: 451.15 billion - 2027E: 513.08 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 26%, 22%, 16%, 15%, 14% [2][9] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: - 2023: 23.25 billion - 2024: 43.77 billion - 2025E: 42.79 billion - 2026E: 56.37 billion - 2027E: 70.15 billion - Year-on-year growth rates: 709%, 88%, -2%, 32%, 24% [2][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 3.79 - 2024: 7.13 - 2025E: 6.97 - 2026E: 9.19 - 2027E: 11.43 [2][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E (adjusted): 40.8 for 2023, decreasing to 13.5 by 2027 - P/B: 4.9 for 2023, decreasing to 2.3 by 2027 [2][10] Business Segment Performance - **Core Local Business**: - Q1 revenue of 64.32 billion, up 17.8%, with operating profit of 13.49 billion, up 39.1% [6] - **New Business**: - Q1 revenue of 22.23 billion, up 19.2%, with an operating loss of 2.27 billion [6] - **Delivery & Flash Purchase**: - Q1 delivery volume growth remained stable, with operating profit margin (OPM) showing significant improvement [6] - **In-store Services**: - Q1 revenue of approximately 15.1 billion, up 20%, with stable OPM [6] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that while Q2 may see short-term competitive impacts on delivery services, the long-term effects on market share and user experience (UE) will be limited [6] - The company is expected to continue exploring overseas markets, with plans for Keeta to enter Brazil, backed by a strategic partnership and a planned investment of 1 billion USD over five years [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [2][11] Core Insights - Meituan's Q1 2025 results exceeded expectations with revenue of RMB 86.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, and an operating profit of RMB 10.57 billion, up 102.8% year-on-year [6][7] - The core local business showed strong performance with a revenue increase of 17.8% to RMB 64.3 billion and an operating profit rise of 39.1% to RMB 13.5 billion, achieving an operating margin of 21.0% [8][11] - The company plans to invest RMB 100 billion over the next three years to enhance its ecosystem and support industry growth, amidst intensified competition [8][11] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Meituan are as follows: - 2023: RMB 276.75 billion - 2024: RMB 337.59 billion - 2025E: RMB 390.04 billion - 2026E: RMB 451.01 billion - 2027E: RMB 505.43 billion [3][14] - Adjusted net profit estimates are: - 2025E: RMB 44.27 billion - 2026E: RMB 56.66 billion - 2027E: RMB 69.06 billion [3][11] - The report indicates a decrease in the price-to-earnings ratio from 33 in 2023 to 11 in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [3][11] Business Performance - Meituan's Instashopping segment saw significant growth, with over 500 million transaction users and daily non-food delivery orders exceeding 18 million [9][11] - New business revenue increased by 19.2% year-on-year to RMB 22.2 billion, with operating losses narrowing by 17.5% [10][11] - The company is expanding internationally, with Keeta becoming a leading food delivery platform in Saudi Arabia and plans to enter Brazil [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Tongguan Gold [2][7][47] Core Views - Tongguan Gold has successfully transformed into a gold mining and selection company since 2017, with significant resource endowment and potential for increased reserves and production. The introduction of Zijin Mining as a strategic investor in 2025 is expected to propel the company into a high-growth phase, allowing it to fully benefit from high gold prices [1][7][24]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tongguan Gold was established in 1997 and underwent several transformations before focusing on gold mining in 2017. The company has acquired multiple mining companies to enhance its resource base, including significant acquisitions in Gansu province in 2023 [11][15]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at HKD 1.358 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 22%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach HKD 2.270 billion, reflecting a 53% increase. Net profit is forecasted to grow from HKD 47 million in 2023 to HKD 561 million in 2025, with corresponding PE ratios of 130.5, 31.1, and 11.7 for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [6][48]. Resource Endowment and Growth Potential - As of the end of 2024, the company has a total gold resource of 55 tons with an average grade of 8.27 g/t, positioning it among the top in the industry. The company has significant exploration and development activities planned, with a focus on increasing production capacity in both Tongguan and Gansu mining areas [31][38][39]. Production and Sales Performance - Gold production increased from 0.7 tons in 2017 to 2.5 tons in 2024, with a projected increase to 2.8 tons in 2025. The company’s sales revenue from gold mining is expected to grow significantly, driven by rising gold prices and improved operational efficiency [43][47]. Strategic Partnerships - The strategic investment from Zijin Mining in April 2025 is expected to enhance Tongguan Gold's operational efficiency and market presence. The partnership includes a metal flow agreement that will provide the company with long-term funding while establishing a collaborative relationship with a leading global mining company [24][26][25]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit, projecting HKD 5.6 billion in 2025, HKD 8.0 billion in 2026, and HKD 9.7 billion in 2027, with a strong focus on increasing production and maintaining cost efficiency [47][48].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company's core business performance exceeded expectations, with a strong focus on AI investments [1][19] - For FY2025Q4, total revenue reached RMB 236.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, while Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 29.85 billion, up 22.2% year-on-year [12][21] - The report anticipates continued recovery in EBITA margins, with Non-GAAP net profit forecasts adjusted for FY2026 and FY2027 [35] Revenue Performance - The revenue from Taobao and Tmall increased by 8.7% to RMB 1013.69 billion, with customer management revenue growing by 11.8% to RMB 710.8 billion [19][17] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew significantly, driven by strong demand for AI-related services, while some core businesses underperformed [21][29] - The international digital commerce segment saw a 22.3% increase in revenue, primarily due to strong cross-border business performance [22] Profitability and Margin Analysis - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao and Tmall was 40.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.2% [19] - The report projects Non-GAAP net profits of RMB 171.16 billion for FY2026 and RMB 188.58 billion for FY2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 12 and 11 times [35] AI and Technology Investments - The company is focusing on leveraging AI technology to enhance user experience and drive business efficiency [20][30] - AI-related product revenue has shown triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, indicating strong market adoption [29] Future Outlook - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the expected growth in GMV and accelerated monetization processes, alongside ongoing share buybacks and dividends [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's core business performance exceeded expectations, with a strong focus on AI investments [1][19] - Revenue for FY2025Q4 reached RMB 236.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, slightly below Bloomberg consensus expectations [12] - Non-GAAP net profit for the same quarter was RMB 29.85 billion, up 22.2% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus [12] Revenue Performance - The revenue breakdown for FY2025Q4 shows significant growth in various segments: - Taobao and Tmall business revenue increased by 8.7% to RMB 101.37 billion [17] - International digital commerce revenue grew by 22.3% to RMB 33.58 billion, driven by strong cross-border business performance [22] - Local life services revenue rose by 10.3% to RMB 16.13 billion, aided by order growth from Gaode and Ele.me [25] - Alibaba Cloud revenue increased by 17.7% to RMB 30.13 billion, benefiting from strong AI-related demand [29] - The entertainment segment (Big Entertainment) reported revenue of RMB 5.55 billion, a 12% increase [30] Profitability and Margin Analysis - The adjusted EBITA margin for Taobao and Tmall was 40.1%, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.2% due to increased investments in user experience and AI technology [19] - The overall EBITA margin is expected to remain in a recovery phase, with adjustments made to future Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 [35] Future Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 to RMB 171.16 billion and RMB 188.58 billion, respectively, with an expected Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 210.31 billion for FY2028 [35] - Corresponding P/E ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are projected at 12, 11, and 10 times [35] Market Positioning - The company is positioned favorably compared to peers, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 16.09 for FY2025, indicating it is relatively cheaper than similar companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company slightly exceeded profit expectations in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 138.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and operating profit (Non-GAAP) at 40.43 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 624.84 billion, 705.27 billion, and 793.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.24%, 12.87%, and 12.48% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas investments, which has led to a slight decline in profit margins, with a gross margin of 80.4% in Q1 2025, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The international OTA platform bookings grew over 60% year-on-year, and inbound tourism increased by over 100% [6] - The company is accelerating its AI strategy, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency significantly [6] Financial Summary - The projected net profit for the company is 169.59 billion, 199.39 billion, and 226.82 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a year-on-year change of -0.63%, +17.57%, and +13.75% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 23.77, 27.94, and 31.79 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 275.05 billion, 297.69 billion, and 329.00 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.0 HKD based on a 7x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][10][12]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in the aluminum industry, with a comprehensive integrated business model that includes power generation, mining, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, establishing a strong profit moat [8][10]. - The company has a high dividend payout history, with a cumulative cash dividend of 524.9 billion CNY since its listing in 2011, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [8][40]. - The company is strategically positioned with a robust supply chain, including self-sufficient alumina production and a high self-supply rate of electricity, which contributes to a competitive cost structure [8][10][60]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading aluminum producer with a total alumina capacity of 21 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 646,000 tons as of 2024 [8][45]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the Zhang family controlling 65.53% of the equity, ensuring long-term strategic planning [22][24]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 156.17 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.7%, and a net profit of 22.37 billion CNY, reflecting a significant increase of 95.2% [4][25]. - The company’s operating income has grown from 84.18 billion CNY in 2019 to 133.62 billion CNY in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 12% [25][27]. Production and Cost Structure - The company has a self-sufficient alumina production rate exceeding 160%, which stabilizes the cost of aluminum production [2][8]. - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum production in 2024 is projected to be 13,232 CNY per ton, which is among the lowest in the industry [8][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its footprint in the aluminum recycling and processing sectors, with plans to establish a joint venture for recycling 50,000 tons of aluminum per year [2][10]. - The company is also involved in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is expected to enhance its earnings starting in 2026 [9][10]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the electrolytic aluminum market, with a production capacity utilization rate close to 100% as of 2024 [46][49]. - The company’s electrolytic aluminum sales volume is expected to reach 583.7 million tons in 2025, reflecting a stable growth trajectory [11][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 profit slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching 138.30 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, and operating profit (Non-GAAP) at 40.43 billion, up 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 624.84 billion, 705.27 billion, and 793.32 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.24%, 12.87%, and 12.48% [2] - The company is expanding its overseas investments, contributing to revenue growth, with international OTA platform bookings increasing over 60% year-on-year [6] - The company is accelerating its AI strategy, which is expected to enhance customer service efficiency significantly [6] Financial Summary - The forecasted revenue and net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: 624.84 billion (2025), 705.27 billion (2026), 793.32 billion (2027) - Net Profit: 169.59 billion (2025), 199.39 billion (2026), 226.82 billion (2027) [2][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 23.77 yuan in 2025, 27.94 yuan in 2026, and 31.79 yuan in 2027 [2][7] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 19X in 2025, 16X in 2026, and 14X in 2027 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group, indicating a positive outlook on the company's future performance [4]. Core Insights - Lenovo Group's revenue for the fiscal year 2024/25 reached 498.5 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.5%, while net profit increased by 36% to 10.4 billion RMB [1]. - The AIPC business segment is experiencing rapid growth, with the device business (IDG) achieving double-digit revenue growth and a 13% increase in Q4 revenue. Lenovo holds the largest global market share in PCs at 23.7%, widening the gap with the second-largest competitor by 3.6 percentage points [2]. - Non-PC business contributions are rising, with the infrastructure solutions group (ISG) generating 104.8 billion RMB in revenue, a 63% year-on-year increase in Q4, marking the second consecutive quarter of profitability. The solutions and services group (SSG) also saw double-digit revenue growth with an operating profit margin exceeding 21% [2]. - Lenovo is advancing its Super Intelligent Agent Matrix, with a 13% increase in R&D investment for the fiscal year, and R&D personnel now account for 27.8% of the workforce, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for Lenovo Group for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 are estimated at 1.665 billion USD, 1.874 billion USD, and 2.068 billion USD, with respective growth rates of 20%, 13%, and 10%. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.13, 0.15, and 0.17 USD per share, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.20, 8.17, and 7.41 [4][6].