Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][51]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The expectation of monetary easing continues, leading to a sustained increase in gold prices. As of December 26, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4,562 per ounce, a 4.4% increase month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 1.8% increase to 1,071 tons. The U.S. unemployment rate in November was 4.6%, exceeding the expected 4.5%. The U.S. November unadjusted CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, while the unadjusted core CPI rose 2.6%, below the expected 3%. These economic data points enhance expectations for monetary easing, which may drive gold prices higher in the long term due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [3][4][6]. - Industrial Metals: The financial attribute pricing weight is accelerating, and there is optimism for an upward trend in industrial metal prices [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metal Index Trends - As of December 26, 2025, the non-ferrous metal index (000819.SH) closed at 9,309.86 points, a 6.3% increase month-on-month. The precious metal index (801053.SI) closed at 24,539.60 points, up 4.1%. The industrial metal index (801055.SI) closed at 3,433.59 points, up 7.1%. The energy metal index (399366.SZ) closed at 2,752.26 points, up 6.0%. During the same period, the CSI 300 index rose 1.95% [9]. 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - The report highlights the ongoing monetary easing expectations and the resulting upward trend in gold prices, with specific data on price movements and ETF holdings [3][4]. 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - As of December 26, SHFE copper futures rose 5.95% to 98,720 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 193,600 tons, an increase of 27,800 tons month-on-month. LME copper inventory stood at 157,000 tons. The report indicates that the price elasticity of copper is accelerating due to the increased financial attribute pricing weight and tightening expectations in the fundamental outlook [5][6]. 3.2 Aluminum - As of December 26, SHFE aluminum futures rose 1.0% to 22,405 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 617,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons month-on-month. The report notes that the macroeconomic environment is supportive of aluminum prices, which are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation [5][6]. 3.3 Tin - As of December 26, SHFE tin futures fell 1.3% to 338,600 yuan per ton. Domestic social inventory increased by 186 tons to 9,378 tons. The report mentions supply concerns due to geopolitical issues affecting the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia, leading to a tightening trend in the tin market [5][6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties enhance its safe-haven attributes. For copper, domestic demand is gradually recovering, and there is a long-term demand space opening up globally. For aluminum, the supply-demand dynamics are expected to accelerate, leading to potential price increases [6][48].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a strong upward trend in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver, driven by various economic factors [1][2][3][4][5] - Gold prices in London increased by 2.36% to $4449.40 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold rose by 4.70% to ¥1016.30 per gram [1] - Silver prices saw a significant rise, with London spot silver up 8.11% to $69.74 per ounce and SHFE silver up 23.01% to ¥18319 per kilogram [1] - Palladium and platinum also experienced notable increases, with palladium rising 19.60% to $1837 per ounce and platinum up 24.46% to $2208 per ounce [1] Group 2 - The recent increase in gold and silver prices is attributed to expectations surrounding the potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump, who advocates for interest rate cuts during strong economic performance [2] - The U.S. GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 reached 4.3%, exceeding expectations, with personal consumption expenditures also showing strong growth [3] - The ongoing geopolitical situation, particularly the Ukraine conflict, remains unresolved, which may influence market stability and investor sentiment [3] Group 3 - In the medium term, the combination of "Trump 2.0" policies and anticipated interest rate cuts is expected to provide strong support for gold prices, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in precious metals [4][5] - Central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank having added to its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months, reaching 74.12 million ounces by the end of November 2025 [5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the precious metals sector, recommending a focus on specific gold mining companies for investment opportunities [6]

国泰海通晨报 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [Table_Summary] 1、【宏观研究】：宽松预期、供给紧张、地缘风险等多方面因素共同推升金银铜等金属价格连续 创下新高，人民币汇率在企业结汇潮的推动下破 7。关注美联储主席最终提名的揭晓。 2、【策略研究】：站在岁末年初，中国股市有望走出关键一步，跨越和站稳重要关口。远望 2026 年，中国"转型牛"又见新峰。新兴科技是主线，周期消费看转型，继续看好大金融。 2025 年 12 月 29 日 大宗商品普遍上涨。其中，COMEX 铜上涨 6.7%，伦敦金现上涨 4.4%，南华商品指数上涨 4.0%，标 普-高盛商品指数上涨 1.6%，IPE 布油期货上涨 0.4%。 债市方面，10 年期美债收益率及中债总全价指数较前一周维持不变，国内 10Y 国债期货价格上涨 0.14%。 3、【金属新材料研究】有色金属：在供需紧平衡的状况下，供需平衡表很重要，但更需关注宏观 对金属价格走势的核心影响，货币政策、宏观预期、地缘博弈与供给扰动将成为胜负手。工业金 属是流动性+传统复苏+AI 需求的三击。 4、【军工研究】军工：上海证券交易所制定了《上海证券交易所发行上市审 ...

Group 1 - Precious metals have seen a rapid increase this week, driven by a better-than-expected decline in the US CPI, opening up room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and improving the probability of a soft landing [1][2] - Domestic funds have gained pricing power in the absence of overseas markets, leading to historic price movements for silver, platinum, and palladium, while gold has underperformed in this period [1][2] - Short-term outlook remains positive for precious metals due to inflows from ETF allocations amid interest rate cut trades, with a long-term view favoring continued holding despite volatility [2] Group 2 - Copper prices are expected to rise again, with Shanghai copper increasing by 5.95% this week, surpassing the 100,000 yuan mark, influenced by improved market sentiment following the US CPI decline [2] - The anticipated supply-demand tightness in copper for 2026 is supported by downward adjustments in production forecasts from Freeport and Teck Resources, alongside expectations of increased fiscal spending from the US government [2] Group 3 - Aluminum prices increased by 0.99% this week, following copper price trends, with low inventory levels reported at 617,000 tons, indicating a slight increase from earlier in the week [3] - Despite being in a traditional off-season, demand from automotive, power, and electronics sectors remains resilient, suggesting a stable outlook for aluminum prices [3] Group 4 - Nickel prices have surged due to a shift in market expectations, with Indonesia planning to reduce nickel production quotas for 2026 by approximately 34% compared to 2025 levels [4] - The actual production in Indonesia is expected to be significantly lower than the approved quotas, which may lead to upward pressure on nickel prices in the long term [4] Group 5 - Tungsten prices have experienced fluctuations, remaining above 450,000 yuan per ton, but have recently declined due to profit-taking by suppliers and concerns over mining quotas at the beginning of the year [5] - The supply of tungsten is expected to continue declining in 2026, with limited large-scale substitution from high-speed steel products, indicating that tungsten prices may remain high [5] Group 6 - Investment recommendations include companies such as Shengda Resources, Xingye Silver Tin, Chifeng Gold, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [6]

截至12月24日，中证申万有色金属指数年内涨幅高达88%，创下近年来罕见的年度涨幅纪录。伦敦现货 黄金站上4500美元/盎司，LME铜价突破1.21万美元/吨，纽约银年内涨幅翻倍，钴价从年初16万元/吨反 弹至年末超40万元/吨，一系列核心品种价格屡破历史新高。 这场行情早已超越传统供需驱动的周期逻辑，成为全球产业链重构、AI浪潮崛起与央行资产配置调整 共同作用的必然结果。有色金属行业正从"被动跟随周期的工业原料"，向"主动定义价值的战略核心资 源"完成深刻转型。 头部企业凭借资源卡位与产业链一体化优势，实现股价与业绩的"戴维斯双击"，而AI、新能源等新兴领 域的需求爆发，更让钨、钽、钴等品种迎来价值重估。 华夏时报记者 张蓓 见习记者 黄指南 深圳报道 周期迭代藏机遇，资源重估启新程。 2025年资本市场的收官钟声临近，有色金属板块以领涨主线姿态贯穿全年，勾勒出全年资本市场的景气 主线。 在全球经济转型与技术革命的交汇点上，2025年的金属牛市不仅是价格的狂欢，更是行业高质量发展的 新起点，其背后的供需重构与企业转型逻辑，正重塑全球有色金属产业格局。 有色牛市下 金属行情分化与共性 供需两端的双向发力，是本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Views - Consensus is beginning to form, marking a historical moment. The non-ferrous sector saw significant gains, particularly a 3.69% increase on a single day. The previously noted lagging performance of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities is gaining market recognition. Looking ahead, the report anticipates that commodity prices may continue to reach historical highs in 2026, suggesting active monitoring of investment opportunities in related sectors [9][13]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with soaring physical prices reflecting a fundamental reaction to the erosion of trust in fiat currency systems. On December 26, silver prices surged by 10.47% in London and 11.15% on COMEX, indicating a systemic re-evaluation of asset values. The report forecasts continued record-breaking prices for precious metals in 2026, recommending a focus on investment opportunities in this sector [14]. - Copper: Labor disputes may exacerbate supply shortages, with expectations for rising copper prices and smelting fees. A potential strike at the Mantoverde copper mine could impact production, with an estimated output of around 30,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2025. The report also notes that the National Development and Reform Commission is encouraging consolidation in the copper smelting industry, which may improve smelting fees. The outlook remains positive for copper prices and smelting fees in 2026 [15]. - Aluminum: The National Development and Reform Commission may promote mergers and acquisitions among alumina producers, with aluminum prices expected to reach new highs due to the copper-aluminum price ratio effect. The report highlights the potential for steady profit growth in electrolytic aluminum enterprises and the acceleration of aluminum substitution for copper in air conditioning applications [16]. Steel Industry - Supply and Demand: The report indicates a slight increase in pig iron production, while steel demand is showing marginal weakness. The weekly consumption of rebar was reported at 2.03 million tons, reflecting a significant decrease of 2.86% week-on-week and 7.70% year-on-year [17][19]. - Inventory: Both social and steel mill inventories have decreased overall, with a slight accumulation in medium and heavy plates. Total inventory was reported at 8.73 million tons, down 3.74% week-on-week [22]. - Profitability: Cost differentiation is noted, with a recovery in steel profitability. The report states that the cost of long-process rebar has slightly decreased by 0.43%, while short-process costs have decreased by 0.13%. The profitability for long-process rebar has increased by 16 CNY per ton [29][32]. - Steel Prices: Overall steel prices have seen a slight decline, with the general steel price index decreasing by 0.28%. The report highlights that the price of cold-rolled steel has decreased by 0.58% week-on-week [36]. New Energy Metals - Supply: In November 2025, China's lithium carbonate production surged by 84.78% year-on-year, reaching 82,300 tons. The report also notes a slight increase in hydroxide lithium production [40]. - Demand: The production and sales of new energy passenger vehicles in November 2025 maintained significant year-on-year growth, with production at 1.771 million units, up 17.89% year-on-year [44]. - Prices: Prices for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have all increased. The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 120,400 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 16.89% [49].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 28 年 月 日 有色金属 反内卷与逼仓情绪升温，铜价创历史新高 贵金属：长期宽松预期不变，金银再创新高。周内美国 2025 年三季度实际 GDP 环比折年率 初值 4.3%，大幅高于预期值 3.3%和前值 3.8%；实际 GDP 同比 2.3%，高于前值 2.1%和 2000 年至今的均值 2.2%。三季度 PCE 通胀、核心 PCE 通胀环比折年率分别为 2.8%、2.9%， 高于前值 2.1%、2.6%。若将净出口、存货变化、政府支出剔除，则三季度美国实际 GDP 环 比折年率为 2.6%，略高于二季度的 2.5%和 2022 年以来的均值 2.3%。与 GDP 增长形成反 差的在就业市场，11 月 ADP 就业人数仅-3.2 万人，季调后非农就业 6.4 万人，两项数据均 显示美国就业市场仍处于疲软状态，我们认为美联储仍有降息的必要性，流动性宽松预期仍 然利好金银价格上涨。此外，白银现货租赁利率在今年 10 月一度超过 35%，近期仍维持在 6%左右的高位，远高于正常融资成本，也反映出实物白银出借意愿极低，现货市场供应紧 张，本周白 ...

智通财经APP讯，赤峰黄金(06693)发布公告，近日，公司收到控股股东李金阳女士及其一致行动人烟台 瀚丰中兴管理咨询中心(有限合伙)(简称"瀚丰中兴")的通知，获悉控股股东将其所持有的部分公司股份 办理了质押手续，瀚丰中兴办理了股票质押式回购延期购回交易。2025年12月24日，控股股东将其持有 的2300万股公司股份质押予西藏信托有限公司，并于2025年12月25日取得《证券质押登记证明》。 近日，瀚丰中兴办理了延期购回交易，交易延期11个月，延期后购回交易日不晚于2026年11月25日，质 押股票数量不变。 ...

近日，瀚丰中兴办理了延期购回交易，交易延期11个月，延期后购回交易日不晚于2026年11月25日，质 押股票数量不变。 智通财经APP讯，赤峰黄金(06693)发布公告，近日，公司收到控股股东李金阳女士及其一致行动人烟台 瀚丰中兴管理咨询中心(有限合伙)(简称"瀚丰中兴")的通知，获悉控股股东将其所持有的部分公司股份 办理了质押手续，瀚丰中兴办理了股票质押式回购延期购回交易。2025年12月24日，控股股东将其持有 的2300万股公司股份质押予西藏信托有限公司，并于2025年12月25日取得《证券质押登记证明》。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting a positive outlook due to macroeconomic sentiment and policy resonance leading to rising metal prices [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the weakening US dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand dynamics have significantly boosted precious metal prices, with gold reaching 1016 CNY per gram (+3.71% week-on-week), silver at 18308 CNY per kilogram (+19.07%), platinum at 2534.7 USD per ounce (+29.37%), and palladium at 2060.5 USD per ounce (+27.03%) [3]. - The report expresses a long-term bullish view on precious metals, citing sustained demand from central banks and industrial applications, particularly for silver, which has seen a historical price surge due to supply shortages and increased ETF demand [3]. - The report notes that the copper smelting profit margins are expected to be impacted by an oversupply of smelting capacity, prompting the government to encourage mergers and acquisitions to enhance bargaining power for imported copper concentrates [4]. - The report discusses the encouragement from the National Development and Reform Commission for large-scale mergers in the alumina industry, which has led to a slight rebound in alumina prices despite high inventory levels and anticipated price declines due to lower raw material costs [5]. - The copper-aluminum ratio has reached a new high, indicating potential for aluminum price elasticity and dividends, with expectations of sustained high profits in the electrolytic aluminum sector [6][11]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Precious metals have seen significant price increases due to a combination of a weaker dollar, risk aversion, and tight supply-demand conditions [3]. - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on gold and silver prices, driven by investment demand and industrial applications [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report highlights the government's push for consolidation in the alumina sector, which may stabilize prices despite current oversupply conditions [5]. - The copper-aluminum price ratio indicates strong potential for aluminum price increases, supported by low global inventories and production constraints [6][11]. Copper Industry - The report indicates that the copper smelting sector faces challenges due to excess capacity, leading to calls for industry consolidation to improve competitiveness [4]. Precious Metals - The report recommends investment in precious metal stocks, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as silver and copper stocks, reflecting a positive outlook for these sectors [12].