1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of copper is strengthening due to disturbances at the raw material end [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 104,500 with a daily increase of 6.01%, and the night - session closing price was 105,180 with a night - session increase of 0.65%. The LME Copper 3M electronic trading price was 13,410 with a daily increase of 3.95% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 746,409, a decrease of 118,859 from the previous day, and the open interest was 605,490, an increase of 1,141. For the LME Copper 3M electronic trading, the trading volume was 38,687, a decrease of 10,514, and the open interest was 326,000, a decrease of 1,276 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 159,021, an increase of 494. The LME Copper inventory was 176,125, an increase of 1,450, and the注销仓单 ratio was 21.05%, a decrease of 0.63% [1] - **Spreads**: Various spreads such as LME copper premium/discount, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - contract spreads showed different changes compared to the previous day [1] Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Macroeconomic News**: Fed Governor Milan said that more than 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are needed this year, and the US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill to end a partial shutdown [1] - **Industry News**: Zambia's copper production in 2025 was about 890,346 tons, an 8% increase from 2024. Chile's Antofagasta's 2025 copper production was below its production guidance, Glencore's 2025 copper production declined by 11%, and Southern Copper expects its copper production to decline in the next two years. Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 540,221 tons. Canada's Capstone Copper resumed operations at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile despite a union strike. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is considering including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook within the [-2, 2] range [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is releasing risks, and silver is falling from a high level. Copper prices are strengthening due to raw material disturbances. Zinc is operating weakly. Lead prices are under pressure due to increased inventory. Tin has stopped falling and rebounded. Aluminum is rebounding slightly, alumina is oscillating within a range, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Platinum is oscillating at a low level, and palladium prices may be suppressed by ETF outflows. Nickel is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, with nickel - iron expectations providing support [2]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, Comex Gold 2602, and London Gold Spot all increased, with daily increases of 8.45%, 6.74%, 6.19%, and 6.06% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 and Comex Gold 2602 decreased, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602 and Comex Silver 2602 increased, while the price of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 12.12% during the day. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 increased, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 109. The inventories of both gold and silver in Shanghai and Comex decreased [4]. - **News**: The US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill to end a partial shutdown. There was an AI panic in the US stock market, and the Fed governor Milan said that more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of - 1 [6]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 104,500, with a daily increase of 6.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index decreased, and the inventory of Shanghai Copper and London Copper increased. The LME copper cash - 3M spread and other spreads changed [7]. - **News**: The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year. Zambia's copper production in 2025 increased by 8%. Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7%. Some copper companies' production decreased, and a copper mine in Canada resumed operations. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is studying including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve [7][8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [9]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24,960, with a 1.82% increase, while the London Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price decreased by 1.53%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased, and the inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased while that of London Zinc decreased [10]. - **News**: Goldman Sachs analysts had views on Fed Chairman Wash. The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [11]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and the London Lead 3M electronic - disk decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Lead decreased, and the inventory of both Shanghai Lead and London Lead increased [14]. - **News**: The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year, and the US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [15]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 6.70% during the day but increased by 6.64% at night. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin increased, and the inventory of Shanghai Tin and London Tin decreased. The prices of spot tin decreased [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,810. The trading volume and inventory of Shanghai Aluminum and LME Aluminum changed. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,809. The prices and inventories of related products in the aluminum industry chain also changed [21]. - **News**: The Fed governor Milan said more than 100 basis - point interest rate cuts were needed this year, and the US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 1, alumina has a trend intensity of 0, and cast aluminum alloy has a trend intensity of 1 [23]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamentals**: The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot increased. The trading volume and inventory of platinum and palladium in various markets changed [24]. - **News**: Trump signed a bill to end a partial government shutdown. The Fed's statements on interest rate cuts and international events such as the situation between the US and Iran affected the market [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum and palladium both have a trend intensity of 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,830, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,585. The prices, trading volumes, and inventories of products in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains changed [30]. - **News**: Indonesia suspended issuing new smelting licenses, China implemented export license management for some steel products, and Indonesia planned to adjust the nickel ore production target. Some nickel mines planned to restart operations [30][31][33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [35].

刚果供应全球70%以上的钴，并拥有世界级的铜、锂、钶钽铁矿和黄金储量。主要矿业运营商包括嘉能 可（Glencore）、欧亚资源集团（Eurasian Resources）以及Chemaf公司。 据保险业高管透露，由于刚果民主共和国东部去年局势动荡，该国政治暴力险保费最高飙升至原来的十 倍，虽提振了保险公司业绩，却大幅抬高了铜钴矿企的运营成本。 （文华综合） ...

哥本哈根盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示，"今日反弹释放出强烈信号，表明市场对金属投 资的根本胃纳并未突然消亡，且市场乐见中国增加战略铜储备的消息。" 据中国证券网报道，在2月3日中国有色金属工业协会举行的2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布 会上，中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫表示，完善铜资源储备体系建设，一方面扩大国家铜战略 储备规模，另一方面探索进行商业储备机制，通过财政贴息等方式选择国有骨干企业试行商业储备。此 外，除了储备精炼铜之外，也可研究将贸易量大、容易变现的铜精矿纳入储备范围。 随着投资者情绪回升，工业金属追随黄金和其他金融市场在周二反弹，部分原因是美印达成了期待已久 的贸易协议。 分析师对铜价仍持谨慎态度，目前铜需求疲软且库存持续攀升。 2月3日（周二），伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜周二反弹，因全球投资者风险偏好回升。 Ole Hansen补充道："当前基本面尚未强劲到支撑强劲反弹的程度，但若投机需求足够旺盛，价格仍可 能出现超额上涨。" 伦敦时间2月3日17:00(北京时间2月4日01:00)，三个月期铜收盘上涨586.50美元，或4.55%，报每吨 13, ...

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 风物长宜放眼量 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2026 年第 5 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 02 月 04 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | | 黄雨韵 | 执业证书编号：S0860125070019 | | --- | --- | | | huangyuyun@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 金银比突破 50，贵金属有望带领工业金属 加 速 上 涨 ： — — 有 色 钢 铁 行 业 周 观 点 （2 ...

2026/2/3 有色金属周度观点 国投期货 研究院有色全属团队 | 序号 | 品种 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 关注M40 60日线点价买槛。1)行情:加速期,上周铜以极端速度基本免现海外投行已上调的年度涨势目标,且价格明显与供求基本面背 | | | | | 离。铜资源溢价已快速降温,短线价格顶部高位可能形成对资金配置交易的阶段性震慑,基本金属交投可能转向基本面。2)国内供 | | | | | 篇:,一季度全球铜精矿供需最紧、TC低位再下调,在北半球春季旺季强弱不能证明、也不能证伪的阶段,资金仍可能依托技术形态,在 | | | | | 关键支撑位重返铜配置领向,同时需要关注国内产业端春节前的备货点价。周一SBL上海铜贴水130元、广东铜贴水扩至265元,洋山铜溢 | | | 1 | 把 | 价反弹回39美元,SM七地库存升至33万吨。高硫酸价格支持下,国内饰厂1月仍以稳健增产为主。倾向铜材类产品1-2月开工率明显低于 | | | | | 去年同期相对高开工水平。反映在沪铜价差上,长线叙事驱动与供需弱现实强化正向市场结构。3》海外:方铜 ...

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：释放风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：情绪悲观，价格弱势 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，限制价格下跌 | 8 | | 锡：回落整理 | 9 | | 铝：等待市场修复 | 10 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：在震荡中小幅修复 | 12 | | 钯：韧性偏强但仍然低位震荡 | 12 | | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 14 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 黄金：释放风险 白银：高位回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The copper market is currently experiencing pessimistic sentiment and weak prices, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 98,580, down 4.92% during the day, and 100,820 at night, up 2.27%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,900, down 1.30% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 865,268, a decrease of 611,602 from the previous day, and the open interest was 604,349, a decrease of 53,190. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 49,201, a decrease of 2,097, and the open interest was 327,000, a decrease of 5,073 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper futures inventory was 158,527, an increase of 1,676 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 174,675, a decrease of 300. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 21.68%, a decrease of 2.21% [1] - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads, including LME copper spreads, warehouse warrant premiums, bill premiums, and spot - futures spreads, showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US January ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.6, the highest since 2022, indicating a substantial expansion of the US manufacturing industry. The US January employment report will not be released on time due to a partial government shutdown [1] - **Industry News**: Zambia's copper production in 2025 was about 890,346 tons, an increase of 8% compared to 2024. Chile's Antofagasta's 2025 copper production was lower than its production guidance, Glencore's 2025 copper production decreased by 11%, and Southern Copper expects its copper production to decline in the next two years. Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 540,221 tons. Canada's Capstone Copper has resumed operations at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile despite a union strike [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - Glencore is set to hire Citigroup as the lead investment bank for its potential acquisition deal, indicating a strategic move in the mining sector [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Glencore is preparing to engage Citigroup for a potential acquisition, highlighting its ongoing strategic initiatives in the mining industry [1] - Citigroup has a long-standing relationship with Glencore, having previously advised on significant transactions, including the 2011 IPO and the recent acquisition of Teck Resources' coal business [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The involvement of Citigroup in Glencore's potential acquisition suggests a competitive landscape in the mining sector, particularly with respect to mergers and acquisitions [1] - The disclosure submitted to the UK Takeover Panel indicates that Glencore is actively exploring opportunities to enhance its market position through strategic acquisitions [1]

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：释放风险 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：情绪悲观，价格弱势 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：LME库存减少，限制价格下跌 | 9 | | 锡：回落整理 | 10 | | 铝：等待市场修复 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：在震荡中小幅修复 | 13 | | 钯：韧性偏强但仍然低位震荡 | 13 | | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 15 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：下游陆续采购，盘面下方空间较有限 | 17 | | 工业硅：硅厂减产落地，下方空间不深 | 19 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 19 | | 铁矿石：窄幅震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪共振，偏弱震荡 | 22 | | 硅铁：成本预期松动，弱势震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，弱势震荡 | 24 | | ...