瑞银CIO办公室分析，全球地缘政治不确定性加剧，叠加美联储议息会议落地前的观望情绪，低风险资产成为资金首选，推动黄金突破5200美元/盎司、白 银突破110美元/盎司历史高位。 | 纽约金主连 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GCOW | | | | | | | | 5303.3 振幅 2.14% 高 5298.6 | | | | | 미래 82358 | | | 5193.6 (HE | | 昨结 | | 5120.6 | 持仓 30.52万 | | | 178.0 3.48% 开 5218.6 | | | 今结 | l | 日増 +21946 | | | 相关 ETF 2 | | | | | T+0 金ETF嘉实 3.05% ● > | | | 分时 園K | 日K | 月K | | 五日 | 更多。 | | | 均价: 5249.4 最新: 5298.6 178.0 3.5% | | | | | | | | 5303.3- | | | 3.57% | | 免费领实时行情> | | | | | | | | 卖1 529 ...

01 "疯狂"的黄金 黄金价格近期迎来突破性上涨， 国际现货黄金站上 5200 美元 / 盎司，国内深圳水贝市场金价同步突破 1300 元 / 克，双双创下历史峰值。 同时，美联储已将基准利率下调至 3.50-3.75% 区间，叠加抗通胀属性的美国通胀指数国债（TIPS）震荡走高， 市场普遍认定美国正式进入降息周期，黄 金也将更上一层楼。 2025 年全年，黄金价格呈现震荡上行态势， 截至 12 月 31 日，COMEX 黄金结算价较年初累计上涨 64.34%，成为全年表现亮眼的资产之一。 02 不止黄金 其实，黄金的强势上涨并非孤例，工业金属的全面飘红已经传递出明确信号 —— 这轮资产上涨行情不是单一品种的 "独角戏"，而是整个贵金属、工业金 属板块的 "集体起舞"。 2025 一整年，工业金属价格迎来全面上涨，没有一种出现下跌。 锡和铜组成 "领涨梯队"，涨幅双双突破 43%，分别达到 44.91% 和 43.96%，成为板块中最亮眼的存在； 铝、镍、锌、铅则紧随其后稳步跟涨，涨幅依次 为 17.03%、9.83%、4.68% 和 2.45%，整个工业金属板块呈现出全线向上的态势。 下面，给大家介绍下20 ...

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index, which rose by 3.05%, with significant gains in stocks such as Silver Nonferrous and Zhejiang Longsheng, and a notable increase in the Cash Flow 500 ETF, which is up 3.21% and has achieved an 8-day consecutive rise [1] - The Cash Flow 500 ETF has seen active trading with a turnover rate of 17.9% and has attracted a net inflow of over 79.9 million yuan in the past 10 days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Huachuang Securities suggests that in a low-interest-rate environment, the compounding effect of stable free cash flow is a cornerstone for a long-term bull market, shifting the focus from front-end expansion to back-end prudent management and cash flow accumulation [1] Group 2 - The Cash Flow 500 ETF closely tracks the CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index, selecting 50 stocks with positive and high free cash flow after liquidity, industry, and ROE stability screening, characterized by small to mid-cap market value, lower valuations, and higher ROE [1] - The industry distribution of the index is balanced, primarily focusing on nonferrous metals, basic chemicals, steel, pharmaceutical biology, and machinery equipment, with no allocation to the financial and real estate sectors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in the CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index, which rose over 3.2%, with specific stocks like Silver Nonferrous and Zhejiang Longsheng hitting the daily limit [1] - The CSI 500 Free Cash Flow ETF (560120) has seen a rise of over 3.7%, marking an 8-day consecutive increase, and has attracted a net inflow of over 79.9 million yuan in the past 10 days [1] - The index employs a quarterly adjustment mechanism to dynamically update its sample based on the latest financial data, effectively removing companies with negative or declining cash flow quality, thus enhancing its "metabolic" capability and reducing long-term holding risks [1] Group 2 - Western Securities notes that during the Kondratiev wave downturn, increased geopolitical uncertainty has led to a natural preference for gold or stable cash flow "safe assets," which has re-evaluated the dividend strategy in the A-share market [2] - The cash flow strategy has outperformed dividends in the current market, as the "anti-involution + capital repatriation" trend is restoring corporate free cash flow [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Free Cash Flow Index include CIMC, Shougang, Silver Nonferrous, and Zhejiang Longsheng, collectively accounting for 44.11% of the index [2]

Group 1 - The industrial non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, with the industrial non-ferrous index rising by 6.20% as of 13:09, driven by stocks such as Silver Holdings, China Aluminum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Yun Aluminum reaching their daily limit [1] - Global copper supply disruptions are occurring, with key roads at Chile's Escondida and Zaldívar copper mines blocked by unions, and Mantoverde copper mine halting production due to strikes. Lundin Mining has also lowered its 2026 copper production guidance [1] - A report from S&P Global Research indicates that new demand vectors from AI and defense sectors will drive global copper demand to increase by approximately 50% by 2040, leading to a significant widening of the copper supply gap if recycling and new mine development do not keep pace [1] Group 2 - London aluminum prices have reached their highest level in nearly four years, influenced by comments from former President Trump regarding the dollar's performance, which has contributed to a bullish sentiment in the base metals market [1] - The weakening U.S. dollar has enhanced the attractiveness of commodities priced in dollars, while declining real interest rates have reduced the holding costs of precious metals, serving as a core driver for price increases [1] - Increased global geopolitical uncertainty is elevating the strategic resource status of gold, silver, and copper, leading to a significant influx of safe-haven funds into the metal markets, providing strong support for prices [1]

全球铜矿供给扰动再起，智利Escondida及Zaldívar铜矿关键道路遭工会阻塞，Mantoverde铜矿已因罢工 停产，Lundin Mining同步下调2026年铜产量指引。国泰海通证券认为，在自由港与泰克资源产量预期 下调背景下，2026年铜供需紧张格局将进一步加剧；叠加美联储降息预期强化及财政支出强化预期，铜 价或延续偏强运行态势。 2026年1月28日早盘，有色金属、小金属板块领涨，截至午间收盘，中证工业有色金属主题指数 (H11059)强势上涨5.59%，成份股白银有色、中国铝业、云南铜业纷纷10cm涨停，铜陵有色，南山铝业 等个股跟涨。工业有色ETF万家(560860)上涨5.75%。拉长时间看，截至2026年1月27日，工业有色ETF 万家近1周累计上涨8.95%。 截至2026年1月27日，工业有色ETF万家最新规模达151.94亿元，最新份额达76.66亿份，均创成立以来 新高。从资金净流入方面来看，工业有色ETF万家近4天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得2.25亿元 净流入，合计"吸金"4.52亿元。 截至2025年12月31日，中证工业有色金属主题指数(H11059)前十大权重股分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions in small quantities for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish movement for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda and soda ash for the time being, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillatory movement for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds for hogs; hedging post - festival contracts on rallies for eggs; being cautious about chasing highs and waiting for rebounds to hedge for corn; bearish on rallies for soybean meal; bullish oscillation for three major oils [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also emphasizes the importance of paying attention to policy changes, inventory levels, and external market factors [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Market is volatile due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, China's industrial profit data, and consumer spending intentions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. There is no significant negative news in the bond market, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflows [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the price increase may not be sustainable due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat - electricity cost. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction in the short term [7] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is stable, the market speculative demand is weak, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1070 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Macro factors provide support, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions in small quantities, and beware of the risk of a pullback before the Spring Festival [9] - **Aluminum**: High - level oscillation. The supply of bauxite and alumina is relatively stable, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - **Nickel**: Oscillatory movement. The reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Tin**: Oscillatory movement. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [13] - **Silver**: Bullish movement. Geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's leadership expectations have pushed up the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Similar to silver, geopolitical and Fed - related factors have led to a higher price center. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal is good. The price is expected to be bullish [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended for long - term low - buying and positive spread trading [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level oscillation. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - **Styrene**: Oscillatory movement. The price has rebounded due to export growth and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory pressure remains. The price is in a state of multi - empty tug - of - war [20] - **Urea**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate between 1730 - 1830 [21] - **Methanol**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak [23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The supply is increasing, the demand from PE downstream is declining, and the price is expected to be weak with limited upside [24] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the internal - external price difference has put pressure on the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [24] - **Apples**: Oscillatory movement. The packaging and shipping in the production areas have accelerated slightly, but the overall market is still weak [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillatory movement. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Bottom - building oscillation. In the short term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, be cautious about being bullish due to high - level production capacity and cost reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. Also, consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts due to the possible post - poned supply pressure [30] - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, the supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, restricting the price increase [32] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level oscillation. The short - term support for the M2603 contract is at 3000 - 3030, and the pressure for the far - month 05 contract is at 2800 - 2850. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [32] - **Oils**: Bullish oscillation. The three major oils are expected to move strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [38]

南方财经1月28日电，电解铝概念盘中持续拉升，中国铝业涨停，创2009年12月以来新高，此前怡球资 源、常铝股份涨停，华峰铝业、云铝股份、天山铝业、新疆众和等跟涨。消息面上，LME期铝主力合 约盘中触及3250美元/吨，创2022年4月以来新高。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The records primarily focus on the metals industry, particularly aluminum, copper, silver, tin, lithium, rare earth elements, tungsten, and uranium [1][2][3][5][12][15][18]. Key Points and Arguments Aluminum - **Production and Demand**: Daily production is increasing due to new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia. Demand is recovering as environmental controls in central China were lifted post-New Year, leading to a slight increase in operating rates of domestic aluminum processing enterprises by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1% [5][6]. Copper - **Supply Disruptions**: There are significant supply disruptions in copper due to strikes at major mines in Chile, including Escondida and Zaldívar, and an escalation of strikes at Mantoverde, which has halted production. Lundin Mining has lowered its copper and gold production guidance for 2026 [3][4]. - **Price Outlook**: The copper price is expected to remain strong due to a "hard shortage" and "soft coercion" dynamics in the market [3][4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The price of precious metals continues to rise, supported by geopolitical tensions in North America, concerns over the US dollar and treasury bonds, and increased central bank gold purchases and gold ETF holdings expected to support gold prices through 2026 [2][3]. - **Silver Market**: The London silver leasing rate has decreased, but US silver inventories are declining rapidly [3]. Tin - **Market Dynamics**: Tin prices are strong, with attention on funding dynamics and supply changes. There is a rebound in tin processing fees, but downstream demand remains cautious due to high prices [6][7][8]. Lithium - **Production Trends**: Lithium production is experiencing seasonal declines, with continuous inventory depletion. There is an expectation of a reduction in export tax rebates for battery products, which may lead to a front-loading of battery demand [9][10]. Rare Earth Elements - **Price Movements**: Rare earth prices have slightly retreated, but the overall trading sentiment has returned to rationality, with limited space for further price declines due to pre-holiday stocking demands [12][13][14]. Tungsten - **Strategic Value**: Tungsten prices continue to reach new highs, with a strong supply shortage supporting price stability. Tungsten is recognized as an irreplaceable strategic resource in defense and high-end manufacturing, leading to a reassessment of its scarcity value [15][16][17]. Uranium - **Supply and Demand**: The rigid supply and the ongoing development of nuclear power are expected to create a persistent supply-demand gap for uranium, with natural uranium prices likely to continue rising [18]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Factors**: The geopolitical events in North America are influencing investor sentiment towards the US dollar and treasury bonds, which in turn affects precious metal prices [2][4]. - **Market Volatility**: Recent futures market dynamics indicate increased volatility, necessitating close monitoring of high-price stimuli and the progress of production resumption in Myanmar [8]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the metals industry.