生生生 生生生生生生生生生生生生生 生生生生 2 0 2 6 . 0 2 . 0 6 作者：姜振飞 联系方式： jiangzhenfei@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 观点小结 生猪 定性 解析 从业资格证号：F03143941 交易咨询证号：Z0022201 临近春节终端备货接近尾声，屠宰企业开工率接近年度高点，下周上半周北方小年过后，家庭备货也 将基本结束，屠宰企业将陆续停工，现货价格也将逐步停止报价，因春节后是需求淡季，市场对春节后现货 价格预期较为悲观，因此养殖端在春节前出栏较为积极，从规模化样本企业小幅超额完成1月出栏计划以及 牧原将出栏体重降至120公斤以下，加上标肥价差持续走扩，肥猪出现相对偏紧的情况来看，春节前养殖端 出栏是积极的，这也降低节后的出栏压力。 核心观点 底部区间震荡 从上市企业业绩公告来看，2025年半数上市企业都是亏损的，结合期货价格以及现在的养殖成本来看， 2026年上半年实现盈利将比较困难，因此在预期2026年较为悲观的情况下，上半年养殖端压栏以及二育将较 为谨慎，持续的亏损也将促使一些低效能的企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wens Foodstuff Group is entering the pet food market by acquiring a stake in Qingdao Shuang'an Biotechnology Co., aiming to leverage synergies and enhance sustainable development capabilities amid declining profits in its core business [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Details - Wens Investment plans to invest up to 147 million yuan, acquiring 14.8684 million yuan of registered capital from four counterparties for 44.3854 million yuan [3]. - Additionally, Wens Investment intends to subscribe to 34.4579 million yuan of newly registered capital for 103 million yuan, resulting in a 48.18% ownership stake in Qingdao Shuang'an, making it the largest shareholder [3]. Group 2: Market Context - The pet food market in China is experiencing significant growth, with the urban pet consumption market exceeding 312.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 4.1% increase from the previous year [4]. - The pet food segment alone reached 167.9 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5.9% year-on-year growth [4]. - Major foreign companies like Mars and Nestlé Purina dominate the market, while domestic brands are increasingly competing for market share [4]. Group 3: Strategic Advantages and Challenges - Wens Foodstuff's entry into the pet food sector is supported by its upstream resources in the meat supply chain, allowing for cost control and quality assurance [5]. - The company benefits from acquiring an established brand and production system through Qingdao Shuang'an, avoiding the lengthy process of building from scratch [5]. - However, Wens Foodstuff faces challenges such as intense market competition and the need for effective management integration with Qingdao Shuang'an to ensure smooth operations [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [1][4]. Core Insights - The total net profit for the tracked companies in the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector is projected to be CNY 30.949 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 20%. The top three sub-sectors by profit growth are animal health (+76%), planting industry (+54%), and pet food (+3%) [3][4]. - The report highlights significant performance disparities among different sectors, with the animal husbandry sector facing challenges due to oversupply and declining prices, particularly in pig farming, where the average price of pigs dropped by 29.9% year-on-year [3][5]. - The pet food sector shows resilience in domestic markets despite a slowdown in overseas growth, with a projected online sales growth of 10.2% in 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Animal Husbandry - The pig farming sector is expected to see a net profit of CNY 20.908 billion in 2025, down 26% year-on-year, with significant losses reported in Q4 [5][8]. - The chicken farming sector remains profitable, with white chicken prices stable and yellow chicken prices showing a 9.5% increase year-on-year [3][4]. Pet Food - Domestic pet food sales are projected to grow, with major companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co. expected to report net profits of CNY 0.678 billion and CNY 0.433 billion, respectively [3][4]. Planting Industry - The report notes a recovery in edible mushroom prices, with a projected net profit increase of 154% for Zhongxing Junye in 2025 [3][4]. - Blueberry prices have slightly decreased, but companies are expected to maintain profitability through volume sales [3][4]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is projected to see a net profit increase of 76%, driven by new product launches and increased demand for veterinary vaccines [3][4]. Seed Industry - The seed industry is facing challenges with low grain prices, leading to a mixed performance among companies, with Dabeinong expected to report a significant loss [3][4].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The report does not explicitly mention an industry - wide investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side is neutral as the number of fertile sows decreased in October and November, and the increase in enterprise and retail sales and second - fattening led to inventory accumulation, with continuous supply pressure [3]. - The demand side is bearish. Although the demand for winter solstice stocking was released, there is an expectation of overdraft and subsequent demand vacuum [3]. - The inventory situation is bullish as the cold - storage capacity utilization rates of slaughterhouses and frozen products are at low levels compared to the same period [3]. - The basis/spread is neutral, with the national average price of ternary live pigs at about 12,720 yuan/ton, the closing price of the LH2605 contract at 11,620 yuan/ton, and a basis of + 1,100 yuan/ton [3]. - The profit situation is neutral. Breeding enterprises are still in a loss state, but the loss has been alleviated, and the pig - grain ratio is below the break - even point [3]. - The valuation is neutral. The current futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding but still far from the lowest warehouse - receipt cost [3]. - The macro and policy aspects are bullish. Multiple major stimulus policies have been introduced in China, which are helpful for boosting long - term pork demand [3]. - The investment view is neutral. The second - fattening demand is cautious, the supply side is stable, and there is cost support at the bottom, so the market may fluctuate at the bottom [3]. - The trading strategy is to wait and see for both single - sided and arbitrage trading, with attention on second - fattening demand and feed prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Analyzed the impact factors including supply, demand, inventory, basis/spread, profit, valuation, macro and policy, and provided corresponding driving directions, main logics, investment views, and trading strategies [3]. 3.2 Pig Fundamental Data - **Capacity Scale**: The number of fertile sows in October decreased by 450,000 to 39.9 million, and in November, the number of fertile sows in sample enterprises decreased to 6.666 million. Data on the number of newborn healthy piglets, commodity pig slaughter numbers, survival rates in farrowing rooms and fattening stages were also presented [3][26]. - **Commodity Pig Inventory Structure**: Included data on the inventory proportion of large pigs (90 - 140kg), medium pigs (50 - 90kg), and small pigs (7 - 50kg), as well as standard - fat price differences and north - south price differences [31]. - **Leading Enterprise Slaughter Situation**: Showed the monthly slaughter volumes of large enterprises such as Dabeinong, Tangrenshen, Muyuan, Wen's, and New Hope [43]. - **Slaughter Situation**: Included data on daily slaughter volume, slaughterhouse operating rate, fresh - sales rate, cold - storage capacity utilization rate, as well as the wholesale volume of white - striped pigs in markets like Xinfadi, and the arrival volume of white - striped pigs in markets like Nanhuanqiao and Shanghai Xijiao [48][56]. - **Profit and Feed Price**: Presented data on self - breeding and self - raising profits, profits from purchasing piglets, pig - grain ratio, and fattening pig feed prices [60][61]. 3.3 Pig Capital - side Data - **Basis**: Provided data on the basis of different contracts such as the 11 - contract, 01 - contract, 03 - contract, and 05 - contract [64][65]. - **Futures Monthly Spread**: Included data on the price differences between different contract months, such as 11 - 01, 01 - 03, 03 - 05, and 01 - 05 [71][74].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption ETF (159268) rose by 1.4%, reaching a new high, with net inflows of nearly 50 million yuan over the past five days [1] - The A-share leading consumption ETF (159928) experienced a flat trading day with a total transaction volume exceeding 570 million yuan [3] - Popular constituent stocks such as China Duty Free and Pop Mart saw significant gains, with increases of over 8% and 5% respectively [1][3] Group 2: Consumer Trends and Policies - As the Spring Festival approaches, the A-share consumer sector is becoming more active, with expectations for increased retail in gold, travel, and dining services [5] - A new policy for Hainan Free Trade Port allows residents to purchase imported goods tax-free, enhancing consumer sentiment [5] - The "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring' Special Activity Plan" aims to stimulate consumption across various sectors, including digital and green consumption [5] Group 3: Alcohol and Beverage Industry Insights - The price of Moutai has rebounded, with a recent increase from 1570 yuan to 1610 yuan, reflecting a 2.5% rise [6] - The white liquor sector is showing signs of weak recovery, with expectations for a gradual improvement in demand due to better economic forecasts [6][9] - The beer market is projected to face pressure in 2025, but a mild recovery is anticipated in 2026 due to the growth of non-traditional retail channels [6] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector Developments - The National Standard for Pre-prepared Dishes is under review, which is expected to enhance the development of the pre-prepared food industry [7][10] - The dairy sector is expected to stabilize, with a potential rebound in milk prices as supply and demand reach a turning point [7] - The snack food segment is experiencing growth, driven by the expansion of discount snack stores and innovations in social e-commerce channels [6][7] Group 5: Livestock and Meat Products - The profitability of self-bred pigs has turned negative, with a 26.4% decline in profits from purchased piglets [8] - Prices for white feather chickens and egg-laying hens have shown slight week-on-week declines [8]

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Securities report indicates that Wens Foodstuff Group expects a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, projecting a range of 5-5.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.73%-46.12% [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - The company's net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to be between 4.8-5.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 44.64%-49.86% [1] - For 2026-2027, the projected net profit attributable to shareholders is 8.325 billion yuan and 15.018 billion yuan, with earnings per share (EPS) estimated at 1.25 yuan and 2.26 yuan respectively [1] Group 2: Business Performance - The company anticipates a total pig output of 40.4769 million heads in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.11%, exceeding the initial target of 33-35 million heads [1] - Profit margins in the pig and chicken farming sectors are expected to decline due to a significant drop in market prices, which has outpaced cost reductions [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The industry is expected to continue capacity reduction in the first half of the year due to persistently low pig prices since early 2026, with a potential turning point in the market likely occurring in the second half [1] - Despite the anticipated downturn in the pig cycle for 2026, the company's ongoing cost reduction efforts suggest that performance may still see growth over the next two years [1] Group 4: Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12.64x for 2026 and 7.01x for 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous decline in pig prices and a slight decrease in chick prices, indicating a challenging market environment for livestock [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to increase by 16% in 2024, which may impact overall agricultural pricing dynamics [2] - The report provides a detailed analysis of various agricultural sectors, including livestock, feed, and aquaculture, with specific price movements noted for each category [2][22] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The agricultural sector, particularly livestock, is experiencing price fluctuations, with pig prices at 12.05 yuan/kg, down by 1.63% [22] - Chick prices are reported at 2.80 yuan per chick, reflecting a decrease of 3.45% [22] Price Trends - The report notes a 5.15% decline in the price of broiler chickens, currently at 3.68 yuan per 500 grams [22] - The price of feed and other agricultural products is also analyzed, showing varying trends across different commodities [22] Market Performance - The report indicates that the agricultural sector has seen a decline of 0.59% compared to the broader market index, with specific stocks like Wen's Group and Muyuan Foods showing mixed performance [15] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with significant attention on price movements and their implications for future profitability [15][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the A-share consumer sector as the Spring Festival approaches, with significant inflows into consumer-themed ETFs and a notable increase in the major consumption index [1] - The major consumer index has seen a rise of 0.23%, with key stocks such as Beitaini up by 2.10% and Guizhou Moutai up by 1.05%, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have issued plans to encourage consumption during the Spring Festival, including subsidies for replacing old consumer goods and support for offline retail, which is expected to boost consumer spending [1] Group 2 - The CSI Major Consumer Index (000932) includes top-weighted stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili, with the top ten stocks accounting for 67.37% of the index [1] - The consumption ETF managed by Harvest (512600) tracks the CSI Major Consumer Index, which encompasses leading consumer stocks across various sectors, with over 38% weight in the liquor industry [2] - Investors can also access the consumption recovery trend through the consumption ETF linked fund (009180) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the pig farming sector, recommending continued investment in this area due to low historical valuations and potential recovery in prices [4][9]. Core Insights - The price of live pigs has dropped to 11.87 yuan per kilogram, indicating a potential restart of destocking in the pig farming industry [3][4]. - The report highlights that the average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.4 kg, which is significantly higher than the same period in 2024 and 2025, suggesting an oversupply situation [4]. - The report anticipates a new wave of price declines for pigs after the Spring Festival, with the industry likely to face increased losses and further capacity reduction [4]. - The report notes that the average utilization rate of breeding facilities is currently high, which may contribute to the ongoing challenges in the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is reported at 11.87 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 2.8% [4]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 127.4 kg, which is 4 kg heavier than the same period in previous years [4]. - The report indicates that the breeding sector has experienced three weeks of profitability but has recently returned to losses, with an average loss of 38 yuan per head [4]. - The report lists the monthly slaughter volumes of major listed pig companies, with a total of 13.08 million pigs slaughtered in January 2026, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year increase [4]. Poultry Farming - The report states that the inventory of white feather broiler chickens remains high, while yellow feather chicken farming has been profitable for over five months [5][7]. - The average price of yellow feather broilers is reported at 14.95 yuan/kg, with a slight week-on-week decrease [7]. Cattle Industry - The report notes that the total cattle inventory in China has decreased by 8.6% as of the end of 2025, with expectations for continued declines in 2026 [9]. - The report suggests that declining cattle inventory is a precursor to rising beef prices, with predictions for accelerated price increases in the first half of 2026 [9]. Pet Food Market - The pet market in China is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, reaching a total market size of 312.6 billion yuan [8]. - The report highlights that the pet food market share has increased to 53.7%, with significant growth in core brands [8].

广东年菜香飘上海，佛山年桔热销全球，湛江海鲜闪耀湘江……"广货行天下"，这场促消费行动不仅藏 着广东制造业、服务业的发展密码，更蕴含着广东农业农村发展的强劲动能。 2月7日，"广货行天下"之大V主播地市行清远专场暨粤味珍品・清远好食材年货节在清远启幕；2月6 日，"广货行天下"为东北老铁送去兴宁鸽等近百款"粤字号"农产品；还有前不久举办的粤味组团进上海 等活动……2026年"广货行天下"春季行动启动以来，越来越多"粤字号"农产品在市场上抢得先机。 今年是"十五五"开局之年，做好"三农"工作至关重要。日前发布的2026年中央一号文件明确提出，努力 把农业建成现代化大产业、使农村基本具备现代生活条件、让农民生活更加富裕美好，为推进中国式现 代化提供基础支撑。2月9日，省委农村工作会议召开，作为经济大省、农业大省的广东，如何写好"三 农"工作答卷？或许从正在火热进行的"广货行天下"春季行动这一小切口，可以窥见一斑。 筑牢发展根基 在广东深入推进"百千万工程"的背景下，"粤字号"农产品实现品牌跃迁。这背后，是近年来广东锚定建 设农业强省目标，扎实做好"土特产"文章，加快构建粮经饲统筹、农林牧渔并举、产加销贯通、农文旅 ...