周二 A 股窄幅震荡，假日效应导致市场窄幅波动。周二 A 股小幅低开后进入窄幅震荡，全天波幅 有限，中小市值个股表现相对较好。上证指数距离所谓"对等关税"宣布前的跳空缺口 3319 点仅一步之 遥，市场分歧有所加大，追涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。临近五一长假，市场担心长 假期间出现突发事件影响节后表现，因此总体表现相对谨慎。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资 开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管所谓"对等关税"的后续影响还 存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对 近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上 市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范围 加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化 也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等 关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of passive equity index funds in China indicates a shift towards an index-driven investment era, with passive funds surpassing active funds in scale for the first time. Group 1: Market Trends - By 2024, the scale of passive equity index funds reached 3.96 trillion yuan, exceeding active equity funds at 3.44 trillion yuan, with stock ETFs surpassing 2.9 trillion yuan [1] - The increasing effectiveness of the market has made it more challenging for active funds to achieve excess returns, leading to a growing preference for index funds due to their lower management fees and significant cost advantages over the long term [2] - Institutional investors are increasingly favoring index funds, with a reported 57% of index equity fund holdings attributed to institutional investors, which is shifting market pricing power towards passive instruments [2] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Ant Financial's stock index fund has surpassed 320 billion yuan in scale, with over 11 million investors participating in index fund regular investment plans, averaging a holding period of 1,239 days [3] - The average return for investors in Ant Financial's index funds was 4.14% in 2024, reflecting the growing popularity and acceptance of index investing among retail investors [3] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The demand for index-enhanced funds is expected to grow, as they combine the benefits of index funds and active management, catering to investors seeking both passive investment and excess returns [4] - As of Q3 2024, the scale of domestic index-enhanced funds exceeded 230 billion yuan, with over 78% of these funds outperforming their benchmarks this year [4] - The potential for excess returns in the A-share market remains significant, with the focus shifting towards the sustainability and stability of these returns over the long term [4][5]

尽管人形机器人、大消费等主题可能在短期内难以改变这一趋势，但其背后的主要逻辑有三点： 各位投资者朋友，请注意以下信息： 今年的投资热点已经清晰显现——算力将成为下半年最为突出的主导趋势！ 据机构预测，未来五年，我国算力服务中心市场预计将以18.9%的复合年增长率持续增长，预计到2027年， 市场规模将达到3075亿元人民币。 3. 中央汇金巨额资金入场，三大行业巨头蓄势待涨 作为依托于央行和财政部的顶尖国家队，中央汇金每次介入市场总能引发重大行情。2015年，它果断介入 泸州老窖，股价随即飙升10倍；2017年，它精准介入长春高新，股价从百元水平攀升至最高680元；今年深 圳华强更是连续16个涨停板！ 1. 政策大力支持，推动国产算力的迅速发展 我国高度重视人工智能在推动现代化产业体系中的关键作用，并从国家层面发布了多项政策，以支持算力 基础设施的建设。 2. 在市场和需求的共同推动下，算力市场正迎来前所未有的扩张 在政策和需求的共同推动下，预计到2025年，算力行业将迎来黄金发展期。 以下三家行业龙头值得特别关注： 第一家企业，中兴通讯： 在通信领域深耕细作，积极推动全国一体化算力网络国家枢纽节点的建设，中 ...

Group 1 - Central Huijin has invested 1.76 billion yuan in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential emergence of a new high-performing stock similar to Double-Creation Pharmaceutical [1] - The National Medical Products Administration has released a draft aimed at optimizing the regulatory framework for high-end medical devices, with a target for the pharmaceutical industry to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2029, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 12% [1] - The number of Chinese pharmaceutical companies certified by cGMP has surged by 87% year-on-year, highlighting a significant acceleration in internationalization [1] Group 2 - Two key pharmaceutical stocks identified as targets of Central Huijin's investment are Xinlitai, which has the world's first dual-indication antihypertensive drug, and a company recognized as a hidden champion in antibiotics with a strong product pipeline [3] - Xinlitai has eight clinical phase III projects and is collaborating with Huawei to build an AI drug development platform, reducing the drug development cycle by 40% [3] - The antibiotic company has a comprehensive supply chain for penicillin and cephalosporins, with a projected net profit increase of 2496.82% year-on-year in Q4 2024, reaching 127 million yuan [3]

裘翔｜中信证券首席A股策略师 S1010518080002 策略｜"国家队"未曾减持ETF 2023年10月以来，中央汇金通过增持ETF有效稳定资本市场预期、提振投资者信心。 根据公募基金23Q4-25Q1季度披露的持有人数据，汇金持有的ETF份额未曾出现环比 净减少的情况，诸如"汇金通常在市场阶段性上涨后卖出"等传言与实际情况完全不 符。2025年4月以来，汇金持有的ETF获明显的资金净流入，且结构上更加均衡。我 们认为，A股也是中国贸易战中提振信心的关键环节，应充分相信国家维护资本市场 稳定的决心。同时，本文汇总了对这一揽子ETF资金流的跟踪测算方式，供投资者参 考。 风险因素：一揽子ETF的净申赎、成交量、净买入水平估算方式并非汇金实际净申赎 数据，与中央汇金实际增持情况存在误差。 明明｜中信证券首席经济学家 S1010517100001 债市启明｜二季度隐债置换规模与区域占比 化债资金前置发行的背景下，一季度地方债发行规模创新高，合计发行2.84万亿元， 其中化债资金1.4万亿元，包括1.3万亿元置换隐债专项债和1172亿元特殊新增专项 债。但从新增地方债的角度看，一季度发行新增一般债2791亿元，新 ...

Group 1 - The electricity sector is currently seen as a prime investment opportunity, with a significant increase in electricity consumption expected, projected to exceed 9 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2025 [1] - The demand for AI computing power and the rapid development of data centers are contributing to increased electricity consumption, highlighting the importance of the electricity sector in the national economy [1] Group 2 - State-owned enterprises are positioned to capitalize on the evolving electricity demand due to their resource and policy advantages [3] - Three potential companies are identified for investment consideration: - **Guodian Power**: A core power platform under the State Energy Group, with significant holdings by Central Huijin and China Securities Finance. The company is involved in the "East Data West Computing" project and is expected to increase its installed capacity to over 120 million kilowatts after acquiring assets worth 9.7 billion yuan in 2025, with a high dividend payout ratio of 80% [3] - **Sheneng Co.**: Focused on the Shanghai market, providing stable electricity and natural gas supply, with a broad operational scope in energy development and management [4] - A third company, currently priced at 5 yuan, has attracted significant investment from Central Huijin and China Securities Finance, totaling 1.78 billion yuan. This company is diversifying its energy portfolio with a mix of thermal, hydro, wind, and biomass power generation, and is expected to see its stock price rise significantly as summer electricity demand peaks [5]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 从历史数据看，指数增强基金的平均收益，多数年份是可以跑赢对应指数的。 但其中也有一部分跑输了指数，如果不谨慎挑选的话，也有可能买到的基金，实际上跑不赢指 数。 那应该如何挑选优秀的指数增强基金呢？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了指数增强基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 指数增强 」领取哦 ～ ◆◆◆ (1) 红利类指数基金。 红利指数按照高股息率挑选股票，是所有 指数中股息率最高的一类。 红利指数基金是具备定期分红的条件的。 (2) 价值风格指数基金。 例如优选300、300价值、自由现金流 … 这些指数偏价值风格,选出来的股票股息 率也比较高。 (3) 大盘宽基指数基金。 例如中央汇金加仓的沪深300、上证50, 有的基金有分红，有的没有。 如果指数基金要定期分红，一个前提条件 是股息率要比较高。 所以具备长期分红条件的指数基金主要是 这几类: 以及港股恒生指数等。 不过内地基金，定期分红的不多。最近几 年才逐渐完善起来。 如果指数基金定期分红，其基金分红收益 率，通常是略低于指数的股息率。 因为指数的股息率，不考虑分红税等 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming political bureau meeting at the end of April is expected to adopt a more proactive and expansive policy stance, focusing on stabilizing expectations, growth, foreign trade, employment, stock market, and real estate, while also introducing new incremental policies [1][5][9]. Economic Outlook - The economic situation is anticipated to be acknowledged as stable with a good start in Q1, but challenges will be highlighted, particularly the complex external environment and insufficient domestic demand growth [3][5]. - The GDP growth rate for Q1 is reported at 5.4%, but indicators like CPI and PPI suggest weak demand characteristics remain unchanged, necessitating policy adjustments [5][9]. Policy Direction - The policy tone is expected to be more aggressive and expansive, with a focus on "real money" measures to stabilize various economic sectors [5][9]. - There is an emphasis on implementing existing policies while also introducing new measures to address external uncertainties [5][9]. Key Focus Areas - Specific areas of focus include central leverage, stabilizing foreign trade and employment, expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, stabilizing the stock market and real estate, and enhancing industrial reform [9][10]. - Potential measures may include interest rate cuts, increased fiscal stimulus, and adjustments to the use of funds for existing policies [9][12]. Trade and Employment - The government is expected to emphasize support for foreign trade enterprises and employment, with significant backing for transitioning exports to domestic sales [11][15]. - The stock market may see increased support, with actions from central financial institutions to stabilize market confidence [11][15]. Infrastructure and Reform - More infrastructure projects are likely to be launched, focusing on urban renewal and water conservancy [12]. - Long-term reform efforts will continue, with attention to national market unification and state-owned enterprise reforms [12][13]. Recent Developments - Recent government actions include high-level visits to Southeast Asian countries to strengthen cooperation, and responses to increased tariffs from the U.S. [13][14]. - The government is actively supporting the transition of foreign trade enterprises to domestic markets through various platforms and initiatives [15][16].

文/ 国盛证券首席经济学家 熊园 ， 国盛证券宏观分析师 朱慧 按 惯 例 ， 4 月 底 将 召 开 经 济 工 作 相 关 的 政 治 局 会 议 ， 基 于 一 季 度 经 济 表 现、 对等关税 进展。 本 文 前瞻 认 为， 会议 总基 调应 会更 加积 极、 更 加扩 张、应会有"真金白银"（实际规模与节奏相机抉择），立足当下、着眼长 远 ， 全 力 " 稳 预 期 、 稳 增 长 、 稳 外 贸 、 稳 就 业 、 稳 股 市 、 稳 楼 市 " 等 各 种"稳"，应会加力推动既定的存量政策落地，也应会推出一批增量政策， 尤其是"更大力度的中央加杠杆、更持续的稳股市稳楼市、更精准的扩内 按惯例，4月底将召开经济工作相关的政治局会议，基于一季度经济表现、对等关税进展，近期总理座谈会、国常会、国新办发布会等系列会议，我们有4 点前瞻： 前瞻1 经济形势上，应会肯定一季度经济起步平稳、开局良好、延续回升向好态势，但应也会直面困难，着重强调"今年的形势比较特殊"，包括外部环境更趋严 峻复杂、外部冲击对我国经济平稳运行造成一定压力、内需增长动力不足等。 一方面，应会肯定经济运行中的积极因素持续增多，如延续 ...

周二指数继续反弹修复，沪指接近回补"关税跳空缺口"。周二 A 股全天继续维持修复反弹走势， 距离所谓"对等关税"宣布前的跳空缺口 3319 点仅一步之遥。虽然经历了连续的上涨，市场观望情绪开 始加大，追涨意愿下降，但 A 股的修复行情仍然在延续。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金等三家国资开 始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管"对等关税"的后续影响还存在一 定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对 近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上 市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性回升。但修复过程并非一帆风顺，美国对全球范围 加征所谓"对等关税"的后续变化对中国和全球经济产生的影响目前仍存在较大不确定性，市场预期变化 也存在反复。后市争议较大的仍然是对海外业务依赖性较高的行业，如消费电子、CXO 等会受到"对等 关税"多大程度的影响。确定性较高的是内需和消费主线，预计会受益于未来的对冲政策。A 股在美国 政府征收 ...