中信证券 2025 年春季策略：核心资产的春天 摘要 Q&A 您对中国核心资产的看法是什么？为什么认为它们具有投资价值？ 我们非常看好中国的新核心资产接力。前一段时间市场经历了极致高波动的板 块行情，但我们认为最近的市场高切低模式与过去一两年有根本性不同。投资 者开始抛弃杠铃结构，转向持续进攻和持有，体现出更积极的心态。信心修复 目前局限于科技领域，但未来会扩散到经济领域，这是时间问题。我们对两会 在供给侧和促消费方面保持期待。 从风格上看，核心资产是关注重心。A 股市 场若要走出类似港股市场的指数化行情，需要龙头核心资产走出盈利和估值空 间。这包括新赛道萌芽及传统核心资产中的经营拐点公司。目前大约 30%的传 • 市场策略转变：机构投资者逐步放弃杠铃策略，转向持续进攻和持有，显 示出对市场更为积极的态度，信心修复正从科技领域向经济领域扩散。 • 核心资产配置：核心资产是关注重点，A 股市场若要走出指数化行情，需 要龙头核心资产实现盈利和估值双重提升，包括新赛道萌芽及传统核心资 产中的经营拐点公司，目前约 30%的传统核心资产公司已走出经营拐点。 • 港股估值优势：港股市场仍处于早期阶段，互联网龙头、半导体 ...

3）个股来看：近 2 周，智能家居指数中，涨幅前五个股分别为翱捷科 技（+50.36%）、芯原股份（+33.80%）、江苏雷利（+31.64%）、兆威 机电（+24.82%）、捷昌驱动（+24.20%）。 行业政策跟踪 1）市场监管总局（国家标准委）批准发布《智能床》国家标准。2） 市场监管总局等五部门发布《优化消费环境三年行动方案（2025— 2027 年）》。 [Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|耐用消费品与服装 证券研究报告 耐用消费品与服装行业周报、月报 2025 年 03 月 02 日 巨头借力 [Table_Title] DeepSeek，竞推"AI+"新品 ——智能家居行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾 1）双周行情：近 2 周（2025.02.17-2025.02.28）上证综指下跌 0.77%， 深证成指下跌 1.29%，创业板指下跌 2.03%；智能家居指数 （399996.SZ）上升 0.34%，跑赢上证综指 1.12pct，跑赢深证成指 1.63pct，跑赢创业板指 2.37pct。 2）细分板块：近 2 周，智能家居指数中，电子元器件及零部件、 ...

执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 3 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] [Table_Industry] 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 蜜雪冰城 IPO 融资认购额创港股历史纪录 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（2 月第 4 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 风险提示：门店拓展不及预期、需求减弱、行业竞争加剧、宏 观经济增长放缓等风险。 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（% ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is undergoing significant changes, with many private enterprises withdrawing and a shift towards state-owned enterprises, indicating a transformation in the sector [3][4]. Group 1: Current State of Real Estate Companies - Numerous real estate companies have exited the market, leaving behind vacant buildings and a sense of uncertainty about their future [11][12]. - Some companies, like Vanke, have adapted to the new environment, while others, such as Evergrande, have left behind empty shells of their former operations [14][15]. - The area previously bustling with real estate activity is now marked by abandoned projects and a lack of operational businesses, leading to a stark contrast with the past [18][19][20]. Group 2: Impact on the Business Environment - The departure of real estate firms has led to a significant reduction in occupancy rates, with many buildings having only a few tenants, and a noticeable decline in commercial activity [23][28]. - Rental prices have dropped dramatically, with some spaces available for as low as one yuan per square meter per day, indicating a fierce price war among landlords [27]. - The overall commercial ecosystem, including small businesses and service providers, has been adversely affected, with many establishments struggling to maintain operations [30][32][34]. Group 3: Future Prospects for the Area - Despite the challenges, there are signs of adaptation and transformation in the area, with new industries being attracted, such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine [45][49]. - The tax revenue for the Hongqiao International Business District has shown a compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the past three years, suggesting resilience and potential for recovery [50]. - Ongoing projects and new developments indicate that the area is not stagnant, with significant investments in infrastructure and new business ventures [46][48]. Group 4: Conclusion on the Evolution of the Sector - The evolution of the real estate market reflects broader economic shifts, with the Hongqiao area transitioning from a real estate-centric model to one that leverages its transportation hub status [40][41]. - The past decade saw rapid growth driven by real estate, but the current landscape necessitates a reevaluation and adaptation to new economic realities [51][53]. - The expectation remains that as the overall economic environment stabilizes, there may be opportunities for former real estate companies to re-enter the market [62].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment outlook for the home appliance industry, driven by the continuation and enhancement of the "National Subsidy" policy in 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The "National Subsidy" policy has shown significant effectiveness in boosting consumer confidence and sales in the home appliance sector, with expectations for continued positive impacts in 2025 [5][18]. - The expansion of subsidized product categories from 8 to 12, including new items like microwaves and dishwashers, is expected to further stimulate market demand [7]. - The report highlights a notable increase in retail sales, with December 2024 achieving a total of 111.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 39.3% [20]. Part 1: Macro Performance of the Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry experienced robust growth in Q4 2024, largely attributed to the "National Subsidy" [5]. - The subsidy policy will seamlessly transition into 2025, with over ten provinces already announcing supportive measures [5]. - The 2025 subsidy structure includes 300 billion yuan in government bonds and various energy efficiency product incentives [6]. Part 2: Consumer Social Media Observations on "National Subsidy" - The "National Subsidy" policy has generated significant social media buzz, with discussions increasing by 50% and interactions rising by 92% during the subsidy period [27]. - Douyin (TikTok) and Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book) are the primary platforms for consumer discussions regarding the subsidy, with Douyin being the main channel for brand engagement [29]. - The report notes that consumers are motivated to upgrade appliances primarily due to home environment improvements and enhanced convenience [41]. Part 3: Social Media Marketing Analysis - On Douyin, the marketing strategy focuses on engaging top and beginner influencers, with a significant portion of the budget allocated to these groups [51]. - Xiaohongshu sees a notable investment in influencer marketing, particularly targeting mid-tier and beginner influencers, which has resulted in high engagement rates [54]. - The report emphasizes the effectiveness of content that showcases real-life applications of products, enhancing emotional connections with consumers [72].

周末聊点轻松的吧，昨晚有个读者说起楼上邻居太吵，无法沟通的事，结果那条留言后台评论有300多 条，很多人都激烈的发表了观点。 我们家在4年前也经历过类似的事情，但所处的是被人嫌吵的那一方，今晚就写写当时的情况。 2020年7月我的第二个孩子出生，未满周岁那会孩子是个睡渣，睡不了整觉，一个晚上大概会反反复复 的醒3-4次，每次一睡醒就扯着嗓子嚎，妈妈只能喂奶+安抚，大概哄个1-2分钟就消停了。 客观讲夜深人静的时候，孩子嚎那几下动静真挺大的，有好几次我在隔了两道墙的书房都能听到。所以 没过多久物业就找上门了，说接到楼下（7楼）邻居投诉我们家孩子太吵，影响休息。 我们当然是表达歉意，但道歉归道歉，问题却没解决。新生婴儿频繁夜醒这本来就是父母头疼的难题， 孩子太小也没法沟通，所以结果就是继续吵，楼下也继续投诉，我们继续道歉。 当然我们也做了一点改变，就是孩子哭醒的时候把孩子抱起来到客厅哄，这样持续吵的时间会缩短一 点，但楼下的邻居比较敏感，在我们把孩子抱到客厅之前就已经被吵到了。 那怎么办呢， 我 甚至 想 过 让 老婆孩子睡到客厅，但 这也太委屈 娘两了，算了，就这么着吧。最差情况就是等孩子一周岁 之后就渐渐能睡 ...

投资地平线是高瓴投早期的经典打法。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，Horizon Robotics（以下简称"地平线"）于2024年10月24日正式以"9660"为 股票代码在港交所主板挂牌上市。 成立至今，地平线已获得高瓴、五源资本、红杉中国、真格基金、嘉实投资等知名机构，以及大众集 团、上汽集团、广汽资本、长城汽车、奇瑞汽车、一汽集团、比亚迪、宁德时代等众多车企资本及产 业链上下游企业的投资。在本次IPO发行中，阿里巴巴、百度、达飞集团和宁波国资基金作为基石投 资者累计认购约2.2亿美元，以示对地平线未来长期发展的看好。 其中， 高瓴自2 015 年地平线的种子轮融资起，9年间总计完成对地平线的7轮投资。IPO前，高瓴 是地平线最大的财务投资方之一，高瓴 创始合伙人李良 担任地平线非执行董事 。 地平线创始人余凯回忆，他和高瓴认识时，地平线团队尚未完成组建，而想做的事在很多人看来又 是"难且巨大"，但高瓴很快做出了投资决定，并介绍了更多投资人入场。 张磊还鼓励余凯，要享受 这一段不被更多人理解的创业时间，"别人都把你当傻子时，正 ...

耐克、阿迪代理商滔搏半年利润下滑 35%。 滔搏运动港股公告称，因宏观消费疲软拖累行业零售环境，线下客流减少，收入同比下降；又因为 要处理库存，加大折扣，线上折扣率更深且占比增加，导致毛利率下滑，最终公司预计截至 8 月底 的近六个月，净利润同比下滑约 35%、至 8.7 亿元。滔搏今日股价大跌 16.17%，今年以来累计跌 幅超过六成。同日李宁跌超 4%、安踏跌超 3%。 宁德时代减产锂电原料，机构称锂价可能跌到头了。 瑞银报告称，宁德时代已暂停在江西的锂云母生产，影响中国碳酸锂 8% 的月产量，预计锂价年内 将上涨 11% 至 23%；此前宁德时代锂业务已经连亏两个月，终于开始减少供应。受此消息影响， 今日碳酸锂期货主力合约价格大涨 7.91%，天齐锂业股价涨超 13%、赣锋锂业涨 9%。锂价止跌回 升将给仍在价格战中的新能源车企带去更大压力。 东风本田裁员，三座工厂停产两周。 美的香港 IPO 拟按招股价上限定价。 媒体援引知情人士消息称，美的倾向以 54.8 港元上限定价，发售 4.921 亿股股票，最多募资 356 亿 港元，或为三年以来港股最大规模 IPO。高瓴和新加坡政府投资公司（GIC）正在考 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a sales volume of 42,000 units in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 25%. The annual target is set at 80,000 units, aiming for a 30% year-on-year growth [21]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company’s RV reducer products are primarily used in industrial robots, accounting for over 90% of their application. The average price of these products ranges from 2,000 to 5,000 yuan, with an average around 3,500 yuan [16][18]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The annual production capacity of RV reducers in the domestic market is approximately 700,000 units. The company’s current production capacity is 150,000 units, with a utilization rate of about 60% to 70% [9][21]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing precision and lifespan of its products, aiming for breakthroughs in key technologies currently dominated by Japanese firms, particularly in large-tonnage robots [22][24]. - The company is also developing a new type of RV structure reducer in collaboration with Tesla, which may be used in Tesla's humanoid robot project [25][26]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while there is pressure in the second half of the year, the market has shown signs of recovery from July to August [21]. - The company is actively exploring new customer development in the European market and focusing on previously undeveloped smaller domestic companies [19]. Other Important Information - The company’s current yield rate is between 95% and 96%, slightly higher than competitors, with a goal to improve it to 98% or even 100% [9]. - The company has identified a gap in the market for large-tonnage RV reducers, which are currently dominated by Japanese manufacturers due to high investment costs and limited domestic production capabilities [11][13]. Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the key indicators to focus on when using RV reducers? - Key indicators include precision, lifespan, and quality performance, which directly affect the performance and reliability of the reducers [6]. Question: What is the current lifespan of RV reducers? - The lifespan of the company's RV reducers typically reaches 80,000 to 90,000 hours, with some projects achieving up to 100,000 hours [8]. Question: How does the company plan to address the gap with Japanese manufacturers? - The company aims to improve lifespan through better raw material purity and heat treatment processes, as well as enhancing assembly processes and detection capabilities [14].

今天a股最大的热点是广汇汽车的轰然倒下，股价在临近尾盘的时候跌停，收于0.87元。由于此前已经连续18天收盘价低于1元，今天是第19天，明天就算 涨停也到不了1元，所以已经提前满足20天低于1元就面值退市的条件，玩完了。 广汇汽车在a股上市24年，最辉煌的时候市值一度接近1200亿，不过现如今跌的只剩60亿。这和它所处的行业有关，主营传统油车的销售与服务，最近6年 公司业绩每况愈下，去年虽然勉强盈利，但净利润率连1%都不到。 另一边公司财务压力巨大，总债务规模约700亿，其中300亿是短期债务，而公司的货币资金只有80亿。公司虽然账面净资产有330亿，但是包含了187亿的 商誉，等减值计提完也就没剩多少了。 总的来说这是一家被时代淘汰的公司，同行业被淘汰的还有前几年的庞大汽车。就算这一次不因面值退市，它的实际经营价值也很低了。让我不理解的是 这么危险的标的，在过去一个月却成为交易活跃的标的，你们看底下的量柱，每天都很劲爆，霸榜热门股。 我故意过去一个月一个字都没提广汇，就是不希望给这种股票导流，今天终于结局了。里面有将近11万的散户，另外还有不少人买了他们的转债，这些人 都是习惯玩刀口舔血的交易，没啥好说的， ...