期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 6 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：供应端仍偏宽松 价格压力相对明显 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价小涨，国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂波动增加 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：小麦和玉米拍卖，现货稳定 8 | | 生猪：出栏压力继续体现 现货震荡运行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般，蛋价稳中有涨 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：基本面边际转弱，钢价区间震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈 13 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 14 | | 铁合金：供需边际改善预期叠加成本推动，短期震荡偏强 15 | | 股指期货：仍有上攻动能 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：央行购债规模不及预期 4 | | 金银：地缘主导，短期内或偏强震荡 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：内盘溢价收敛，铂钯随金银上行 17 | | 铜：逢低多 ...

Group 1 - The defense and military industry saw an increase, contributing to the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high, surpassing 4060 points, marking a nearly ten-year peak [1] - The CSI 300 ETF from Huaxia (510330.SH) experienced a significant rise of 1.08%, reaching a new three-year high at 4.967 yuan, with a trading volume of 347 million yuan, indicating a notable increase compared to the previous day [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Hengli Petrochemical led with a rise of 9.40%, followed by Tonghuashun at 8.24%, China Satellite Communications at 8.17%, and Hoshine Silicon Industry at 7.62% [1] Group 2 - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the CSI 300 index is 14.33 times, which is at the 88.14th percentile over the past ten years, indicating that the valuation is lower than 11.86% of the time in the last decade [1] - Factors such as low securitization rates, increasing market liquidity, and low profitability of listed companies suggest that there is still potential for upward movement in the current valuation of the CSI 300 [1]

中信建投证券研报指出，2025年以来，受到低迷的产品价格影响，合盛硅业盈利有所下滑。但一方面目 前公司主要产品价格都在底部，可以说价格继续下行的空间已经不大。另一方面，25年下半年以来，在 有机硅、多晶硅行业均已经看到了"反内卷"相关政策或举措的落地。综合而言，认为行业景气度将逐步 回暖，带动公司盈利的逐步回升。公司作为硅行业龙头，仍然有充分投资价值。目前产业链景气度仍然 低迷，但反内卷之下，行业反转的曙光已现，后续可预期公司聚焦在优势的工业硅、有机硅业务，且盈 利随着行业转暖不断改善，债务问题也有望在进一步的盈利回升、股权融资之下得到有效缓解。维持对 公司的"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that since 2025, the profitability of Hoshine Silicon Industry has declined due to sluggish product prices, but the current prices are at a low point with limited room for further decline [1] Industry Summary - The organic silicon and polysilicon industries have seen the implementation of "anti-involution" policies or measures since the second half of 2025, suggesting a gradual recovery in industry prosperity [1] - The overall industry environment remains weak, but signs of a turnaround are emerging under the anti-involution context [1] Company Summary - As a leading company in the silicon industry, Hoshine Silicon Industry still holds significant investment value [1] - The company is expected to focus on its strengths in industrial silicon and organic silicon businesses, with profitability improving as the industry warms up [1] - Debt issues are anticipated to be effectively alleviated through further profit recovery and equity financing [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. Geopolitical events such as the US attack on Venezuela have significant impacts on commodity prices, and different sectors show diverse trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and market conditions [19][108]. - In the financial derivatives market, A - shares are expected to operate around the theme of a technology - powered nation, but risks such as over - opening and geopolitical factors need attention. The bond market may see sentiment repair after the implementation of new regulations, but the scope of repair is limited [19][23]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Investment Logic**: A - shares showed a slow - bull trend at the end of 2025, with the PMI data above 50 adding market confidence. The potential listing of large companies is beneficial to the industrial chain. After the holiday, Hong Kong stocks rose, and A - shares are expected to focus on the technology - related sectors. Attention should be paid to risks such as over - opening, geopolitical issues, and institutional position adjustments [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be to buy on dips as the market is expected to rise; for arbitrage, wait for the spread of IM/IC to widen; for options, use a bull spread strategy [20]. 3.1.2 Treasury Futures - **Investment Logic**: The bond market was weak before the holiday. The new regulations on public - offering funds may repair the bond market sentiment, but the positive signals from the PMI data are negative for the bond market. The repair space of the bond market is limited due to factors such as strong fundamental expectations and supply - demand concerns for long - term bonds [21][22][23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, close short positions of TS and TF contracts on dips; for arbitrage, wait and see [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - **Logic Analysis**: International soybean cost faces pressure, especially with the improved weather in South America. Domestic soybean supply may decline, and the spot price may be supported. It is expected to oscillate [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate; for arbitrage, narrow the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will ease, and the market focuses on the northern hemisphere. The domestic sugar price is at a low level, with cost support and potential upward drive from the external market, but there is sales pressure during the peak crushing season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the international sugar price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [32]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical events may affect the oil market. The production of Malaysian palm oil in December is expected to decrease, but the inventory is high. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and rapeseed oil is affected by policies. The overall oil market lacks a clear driver [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the oil market oscillates with increased volatility. For palm oil, short after a rebound; for soybean oil, follow the overall trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - **Logic Analysis**: US corn is weak but may oscillate narrowly. In China, the supply in the Northeast is low with strong prices, while the supply in North China is increasing with weak prices. Wheat auctions may affect the corn market [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the 03 - contract corn oscillates at the bottom and can be bought on dips, and the 07 - contract corn can be bought on dips. For arbitrage, narrow the spread between 03 - contract corn and starch; wait and see for options [38]. 3.2.5 Live Pigs - **Logic Analysis**: Pig prices have declined recently due to increased supply. The overall inventory is high, and there is still supply pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, short positions can be taken; wait and see for arbitrage and sell a wide - straddle strategy for options [40]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - **Logic Analysis**: Peanut spot prices are stable, with a large price difference between Henan and the Northeast. The import volume has decreased, and the oil mill has profits. The 03 - contract peanut oscillates at the bottom [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the 05 - contract peanut oscillates at the bottom and can be bought on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - **Logic Analysis**: Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly, while the far - month May contract can be considered for long positions on dips [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the February contract is expected to oscillate, and the May contract can be bought on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - **Logic Analysis**: Apple production has decreased, and the cold - storage inventory is low. However, the market demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate in the short term; for arbitrage, go long on the May contract and short on the October contract; wait and see for options [50]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Logic Analysis**: The planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to decrease, and the sales progress is fast. The improvement of Sino - US relations and the expansion of textile mills' capacity in Xinjiang support the cotton price. The market is bullish, but there may be short - term corrections [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, US cotton is expected to oscillate, and Chinese cotton is expected to rise slightly; wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - **Logic Analysis**: Steel raw materials are continuously restocked, and steel prices oscillate within a range. Steel production has increased, and inventory is decreasing. The demand for building materials is affected by the season, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is still growing. The export may decline in the short term [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate; for arbitrage, narrow the spread between hot - rolled coils and coking coal and between 03 - contract corn and starch; wait and see for options [56]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Logic Analysis**: The contradiction in coking coal is not prominent, and the driving force is not obvious. The import of Mongolian coal may decrease in January, and the production of domestic coal will have seasonal fluctuations. The downstream winter - storage replenishment supports the price, but the upward driving force is insufficient [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, wait and see or go long on dips with a light position; wait and see for arbitrage and options [58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - **Logic Analysis**: The global iron ore shipment is stable, and the supply in China is abundant. The domestic demand for steel is declining, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [60]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate; wait and see for arbitrage and options [63]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, the supply is decreasing slightly, the demand is expected to increase after the blast - furnace restart, and the cost is stable. For ferromanganese, the supply is stable, the demand is supported by the blast - furnace restart, and the cost is strong. Both are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options for options [64]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the US macro data and margin adjustments put pressure on gold and silver, but geopolitical issues increase the safe - haven demand, and they may oscillate strongly at a high level [67]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go long on SHFE gold and silver cautiously if they break through the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage and options [69]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical events may cause fluctuations in platinum and palladium. The fundamentals of platinum are tight, and it can be considered for long positions. Palladium may follow platinum. The domestic premium has shrunk, and attention should be paid to the rebound after over - selling [70][71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go long on platinum and palladium on dips based on the 5 - day moving average; for arbitrage, go long on platinum and short on palladium; wait and see for options [72]. 3.4.3 Copper - **Logic Analysis**: The US attack on Venezuela may slightly boost the copper price. The copper price has risen rapidly, leading to a decline in consumption and inventory accumulation. The long - term trend is upward, and it can be bought on dips [74]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, buy on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [74]. 3.4.4 Alumina - **Logic Analysis**: The profit of alumina warehouse - receipt registration has converged, and it is expected to oscillate. The futures "reservoir" function has been reflected, and attention should be paid to the digestion of warehouse receipts [77]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate in the short term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [78]. 3.4.5 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Logic Analysis**: The global shortage of aluminum and the domestic subsidy policy support the aluminum price. The domestic spot discount is large, and inventory may increase. It is recommended to go long on dips [79][80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go long on dips; for arbitrage, consider buying physical delivery products and shorting futures; wait and see for options [80]. 3.4.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Logic Analysis**: The 2026 subsidy policy is better than expected. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price. The demand is weak, and the trading is light [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly with the sector; wait and see for arbitrage and options [82]. 3.4.7 Zinc - **Logic Analysis**: The shortage of domestic zinc ore is partially relieved, the smelting profit is good, and the supply may increase slightly. The downstream consumption is weak but has resilience. The price is expected to oscillate with the non - ferrous metal sector [84][85]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate widely; wait and see for arbitrage and options [86]. 3.4.8 Lead - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead is weak due to the shortage of lead ore and recycled lead raw materials. The demand has resilience, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go long on dips; wait and see for arbitrage and options [91]. 3.4.9 Nickel - **Logic Analysis**: The expectation of quota reduction in Indonesia may boost the nickel price, but the US attack on Venezuela may be negative for the non - ferrous metal sector. The price may rise before significant inventory accumulation [92]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, consider the upward trend before significant inventory accumulation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [93]. 3.4.10 Stainless Steel - **Logic Analysis**: The expectation of nickel - ore quota reduction and tight hot - rolled resources support the stainless - steel price. The inventory is decreasing, but the export may be affected by the EU's CBAM policy. The price follows the nickel price but has limited upward drive [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, follow the nickel price; wait and see for arbitrage [95]. 3.4.11 Industrial Silicon - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon is in the off - season, and the supply is slightly reduced. The short - term price is strong, but the medium - term price may decline [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, sell on rallies; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; sell out - of - the - money call options for options [98]. 3.4.12 Polysilicon - **Logic Analysis**: The photovoltaic industry's self - discipline and production control support the long - term price of polysilicon. The short - term futures trading volume is low, and attention should be paid to risk management [99]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, participate cautiously and control risks; for arbitrage, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; sell put options for options [99]. 3.4.13 Lithium Carbonate - **Logic Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate is at a high level. The US attack on Venezuela may affect the market, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced. Attention should be paid to risk control [100][101]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, operate cautiously and control positions; wait and see for arbitrage and options [102]. 3.4.14 Tin - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical turmoil may increase the volatility of the tin price. The domestic supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate widely [104]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, the price may oscillate widely after a significant decline; wait and see for options [104]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - **Logic Analysis**: Some shipping companies plan to raise prices in mid - January. The market has different views on the price peak and adjustment rhythm. The demand is expected to improve, and the supply will change. The US attack on Venezuela may affect fuel costs and trade patterns [105]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, close most long positions of the EC2602 contract on rallies and hold a small position; wait and see for arbitrage [106]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical events in Venezuela increase the supply - side disturbance of crude oil. The short - term supply may be affected, but the long - term supply may increase. The price is expected to oscillate widely [109]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate widely; for arbitrage, gasoline is strong, diesel is weak, and the crude - oil time - spread rebounds; wait and see for options [109]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - **Logic Analysis**: The US capture of Maduro has increased the risk of raw - material supply disruption. In the short term, the near - month contract may be strong, and in the long term, the cost may rise [112]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, it may open higher on Monday, but be cautious about chasing the rise; wait and see for arbitrage and options [113]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical events may drive up the price of fuel oil in the short term. The high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to increase [114][115]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly in the short term, be cautious about geopolitical risks; for arbitrage, consider the FU59 positive spread; wait and see for options [116]. 3.6.4 Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: The cold weather in Europe supports the price in the short term, but the long - term trend is downward. The temperature in the US is expected to rise, and the HH price may decline [118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, sell Q3 JKM/TTF contracts; wait and see for arbitrage and options [118]. 3.6.5 LPG - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in Saudi CP prices supports the domestic LPG price, but the high import price and high inventory pressure may limit the upward space [120]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, go short on the far - month contract; wait and see for arbitrage and options [122]. 3.6.6 PX & PTA - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of PX and PTA has increased, and the production reduction of polyester yarn is gradually implemented. The supply and demand of PTA have improved marginally, but the upward drive may weaken [123][124]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally, oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, consider the positive spread of PX & PTA 3 and 5 contracts; wait and see for options [124]. 3.6.7 BZ

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve in Q1 2026, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets [1][18]. - The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index is due to rising geopolitical risks after the US's actions in Venezuela [3][12][13]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued, while the bond market may still face downward pressure after a rapid rise [19][22]. - Different commodities have different trends. For example, palm oil may face supply pressure, and copper prices are mainly affected by macro factors [24][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The arrest of the Venezuelan president by the US has increased geopolitical tensions, but the impact on the financial market is expected to be limited. Short - term precious metals may face correction risks [10]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US's actions in Venezuela have raised geopolitical risks, causing the US dollar index to strengthen in the short term. The US dollar is expected to rise in the short term [3][12][13]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US air strike on Venezuela may cause short - term market risk aversion, but the market risk appetite is expected to improve. US stocks are expected to operate in a volatile and slightly stronger manner [15][16]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The domestic economic outlook is expected to improve, but short - term geopolitical risks may suppress risk assets. The long - position strategy for stock indices should be continued [18][19]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The new fee rate regulations are short - term positive for the bond market, but cannot reverse the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices [2][22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In December 2025, Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased, and the inventory may exceed 3 million tons. It is advisable to wait for India's increased purchases and consider going long at low levels [23][24][25]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CBOT soybeans declined due to poor export prospects. Domestic soybean crushing is expected to decrease in January. Soybean meal is expected to decline with CBOT soybean futures prices [28][29]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The global sugar market is expected to have a small surplus in 2025/26. The sugar price may be sensitive to weather and production changes. Pay attention to the actual stocking and sales progress [30][32][33]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US cotton export demand is weak, and the Indian import tariff exemption has expired. The external market is expected to remain in a low - level shock. Be wary of the risk of a decline in Zhengzhou cotton [38][39]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, the inventory of five major steel products continued to decline, but the speed slowed down. The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for the accumulation of market contradictions [44][45]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was stable on December 31, 2025. The demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the coal mine's production in January [45][46]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Samarco mine expansion project was suspended. The iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the steel mills' raw material replenishment after January [47][48]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro factors have a great impact on copper prices. Fundamentally, short - term price increases are restricted. It is recommended to buy at low prices [52]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's supply contraction expectation is being realized. Unilaterally, it is advisable to consider going long at low levels. For arbitrage, pay attention to the 03 - 05 reverse spread opportunity [55][56]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There may be short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to consider going long at low levels in the medium term [58][59][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Polysilicon enterprises have raised spot quotes. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels, but investors should hold positions carefully [60][61]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The current production reduction scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern in 2026. It is recommended to short at high prices after a rebound [63][64]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply and demand contradictions of tin are alleviated, and attention should be paid to the risk of price decline caused by the withdrawal of funds [68]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The fundamental contradictions of lead are marginally alleviated. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach both unilaterally and in terms of arbitrage [69][70]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The short - term fundamentals of zinc have no obvious contradictions. Unilaterally, wait for the opportunity to take profits at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach [71][72][73]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [74]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The short - term risk premium of crude oil prices may rise moderately, and the long - term supply growth depends on US investment [75][76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the overcapacity situation of industrial silicon is expected to continue, but policy - end regulation will have a guiding effect. Production is expected to increase slightly by 3%, with overall demand increasing by about 5%. The mainstream price range is expected to be between 7,600 yuan/ton and 9,400 yuan/ton, and factors such as capacity optimization, enterprise dynamic production adjustment, and upward price transmission in the photovoltaic industry chain should be focused on [3][94]. - Compared with industrial silicon, polysilicon has greater variability. Currently, polysilicon has overcapacity and high inventory, but policy - based storage and price - support from leading enterprises provide strong support, driving up the prices of downstream silicon wafers and solar cells and contributing to the profit recovery of the photovoltaic industry. In 2026, it still faces the challenge of declining terminal demand. Policy implementation (energy - consumption regulations + platform - based storage) will have a significant impact on polysilicon prices. Capacity elimination and optimization are relatively certain events, and with the increasing concentration of production enterprises' capacity, polysilicon is generally "prone to rise but difficult to fall". It is recommended to conduct risk - hedging based on production conditions [4][97]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market in 2025 (1) Industrial Silicon Futures - The price trend in 2025 can be divided into three stages: continued decline from 2024 until early June, a rebound from early June to mid - July, and a consolidation period from August to the end of the year. The price dropped to a minimum of 6,990 yuan/ton in early June, with a decline of 36.5% from the beginning of the year, then rebounded to a maximum of 10,060 yuan/ton in mid - July, a 43.9% increase from the early - June low. The market entered a state of "subtle balance" later, with supply and demand both decreasing, high inventory but slight destocking, and reduced trading volume [7][10][11]. - In terms of the basis, the basis was relatively low in the first quarter. It reached the annual high in the second quarter as the futures price declined rapidly. In the third and fourth quarters, the basis was mainly driven by the futures price, with the spot price being 400 - 800 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, showing an obvious inverse market pattern [14]. (2) Polysilicon Futures - The price trend in 2025 can be divided into four stages: a calm period during the "rush - installation wave" from the beginning of the year to early April; a decline due to oversupply from early April to mid - late June, with the price dropping to a minimum of 30,400 yuan/ton, a 30% decline; a price increase boosted by the "anti - involution" policy from late June to late July, with the price reaching a maximum of 55,605 yuan/ton, an 83% increase in one month; and a high - level consolidation period from early August to the end of the year under the contradiction of "weak supply - demand vs. strong policy". The futures price fluctuated in the range of 48,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and reached a maximum of 61,985 yuan/ton after the establishment of the storage platform [15][18][20]. - The basis was relatively stable from January to April, around - 4,000 yuan/ton, then converged as the price fluctuated. From late July to mid - September, the futures price was higher than the spot price. The basis gradually widened from late October and exceeded - 10,000 yuan/ton by the end of the year [21]. 2. Industrial Silicon Market Analysis (1) Capacity - In 2026, the effective capacity is expected to decline. The domestic industrial silicon capacity at the end of 2025 was 7.879 million tons. It is expected that 400,000 - 500,000 tons of new capacity will be added in 2026, while some capacity (mainly in Sichuan and Yunnan) will continue to be phased out, and the supply center will shift northward. The domestic industrial silicon capacity in 2026 is expected to be 8 - 8.2 million tons, with the effective capacity below 7.5 million tons [23]. - In 2025, the domestic industrial silicon capacity continued to expand. By November 2025, the capacity was 7.879 million tons, with an increase of 600,000 tons during the year, including 400,000 tons of newly - put - into - operation capacity and about 200,000 tons of restarted idle capacity. The incremental capacity mainly came from Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Gansu [24]. - Policy impact on industrial silicon is relatively limited. The "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidance Catalog (2024 Edition)" requires the elimination of certain types of furnaces, but the proportion of affected capacity is small (about 5% or 400,000 tons, mostly already shut down). The "anti - involution" policy has a limited impact on industrial silicon, and production is more affected by profit factors. As capacity further concentrates in the northern regions, the effect of joint production cuts by large enterprises is expected to improve [25][28]. - For new capacity in 2026, it is expected to be 400,000 - 500,000 tons. There are currently about 200,000 tons of completed but un - put - into - operation capacity (expected to be put into production in the first half of 2026) and 700,000 tons under construction (expected to be put into production in batches). The new capacity is highly concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, accounting for 80%, and the project commissioning time will be concentrated in the first half of the year and the third quarter [29][33]. (2) Production - In 2025, the domestic industrial silicon production was about 4.27 million tons, a 12.8% year - on - year decrease, and the annual capacity utilization rate was about 54%. The production in the northern regions increased, with Xinjiang accounting for 52% of the total production from January to November 2025, and the four northern provinces (Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Ningxia) accounting for 81%, while Sichuan and Yunnan together accounted for less than 17% [34][37]. - The output of substitute products decreased. The output of 97 - silicon was expected to be about 110,000 tons in 2025, a 73% year - on - year decrease, and the output of recycled silicon was 180,000 tons, a 28% year - on - year decrease [41]. (3) Demand 1: Organic Silicon - In 2025, the production of organic silicon was basically flat. The cumulative production of domestic organic silicon DMC and other polysiloxanes in 2025 was expected to reach 2.72 million tons, almost the same as in 2024. The domestic consumption was 2.2 million tons, and the export was 203,200 tons, showing a tight balance with a slight surplus. The DMC price is currently in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/ton, and the profitability of enterprises has been significantly restored [44][47]. - In 2026, the organic silicon industry is also facing overcapacity, with no new device plans. Production or maintenance will be adjusted according to downstream demand. The downstream demand is relatively scattered, and the future growth points may be in smart wear and new energy. It is expected that the demand will increase slightly by 1 - 3% [47]. (4) Demand 2: Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the price of aluminum alloy showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and the price center increased in line with the price of primary aluminum. The cumulative production of domestic aluminum alloy from January to November 2025 was 17.456 million tons, a 15.8% year - on - year increase, and the annual production is expected to exceed 18 million tons, reaching a new high. The driving factors include the booming demand for new - energy vehicles, the accelerated release of recycled aluminum capacity, technological upgrades, and policy support [49][50]. - In 2026, the production of aluminum alloy is expected to continue to grow steadily by more than 10%. The main supporting factors include the implementation of "two new" policies in the new - energy vehicle sector, the increasing demand for aluminum alloy in energy storage and 5G fields, the possible supply shortage of recycled aluminum, and the gradual reaching of full production capacity by leading enterprises [54]. (5) Import and Export - In 2025, China's industrial silicon exports were expected to be 746,000 tons, a slight increase from the previous year. Overseas markets mainly purchase on demand, and exports in 2026 are expected to remain stable with limited growth [56]. (6) Cost and Profit - Electricity and silicon - coal account for about 75% of the total raw material cost of industrial silicon, and the price of coal has a higher correlation with the price of industrial silicon. Cost and profit are the main references for enterprises to adjust production [58]. - In the long - term, the electricity cost has a downward trend, but the regional and enterprise - level cost differences will increase. In 2026, the electricity price in low - price regions such as Xinjiang, Gansu, and Shandong is expected to decline, while in high - price regions such as Shanghai, Anhui, and Guangdong, it will be more resilient. The electricity price in intermediate regions such as Yunnan, Jiangxi, and Hebei South Grid will be stable [61][62]. - The price of silicon - coal has a significant impact on cost changes. The price increase of coal in early June 2025 boosted the price of industrial silicon [63]. 3. Polysilicon Market Analysis (1) 2025: Continued Overcapacity - From 2022 to 2024, the domestic polysilicon capacity expanded nearly six times. In 2025, the domestic polysilicon capacity was expected to be 3.32 million tons, with an effective capacity of 3.123 million tons, a 10.5% year - on - year increase. The production was expected to be 1.33 million tons, a 26% year - on - year decrease, and the annual capacity utilization rate was about 40% [64][67]. - In terms of demand, the domestic silicon wafer production in 2025 was 649 GW, and the consumption of polysilicon was about 1.23 million tons. With exports of 23,500 tons and imports of 19,000 tons, the domestic polysilicon market still had overcapacity, but the surplus was narrower than in 2023 and 2024 [71]. (2) Supply - For capacity changes in 2026, it can be analyzed from three aspects: project planning, energy - consumption regulations, and platform - based storage. It is expected that more than 400,000 tons of new capacity will be put into production by the end of 2026 [72]. - Energy - consumption regulations will adjust the polysilicon capacity. About 450,000 tons of existing capacity may not meet the new energy - consumption standards and will be phased out, and some capacity needs to be technically upgraded. After the implementation of the new standards, the domestic effective polysilicon capacity is expected to drop to about 2.4 million tons per year [72]. - The storage platform "Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd." was registered in December 2025. It plans to adopt a dual - track operation mode of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible capacity storage" to optimize the capacity structure. The goal is to shut down 1 - 1.2 million tons of capacity and retain 1.5 million tons of effective capacity [72][73]. - The supply in 2026 largely depends on policy - end regulation, and it is preliminarily estimated that the supply will be between 1.4 - 1.5 million tons [77]. (3) Demand - In 2025, the nominal capacity of each link in the photovoltaic industry chain was high, but the actual production was affected by weak demand and industry self - regulation. The production of polysilicon decreased for the first time in 12 years, the growth rate of silicon wafer and module production slowed down, and the capacity investment in solar cells continued to grow [78][79]. - In 2026, global photovoltaic installation will benefit from energy transformation, emerging market development, and policy support. However, the demand in China, the United States, and Europe is expected to remain stable or decline. The demand for domestic polysilicon should not be overly optimistic due to factors such as the loss of downstream products, the possible reduction of domestic installation after the subsidy withdrawal, and the restriction of exports by other countries. The demand for polysilicon is estimated to range from 1.32 - 1.58 million tons under different installation scenarios [83][84]. (4) Inventory - As of the end of December 2025, the total inventory of polysilicon was 523,000 tons, reaching a recent high. The inventory of silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules was in a relatively normal state, but the module inventory showed a cumulative trend in the second half of the year [86]. - It is expected that the polysilicon inventory will remain high in the first quarter of 2026 and may increase further. It will decline in the second and third quarters as demand recovers and the installation season arrives, and enter a stable period in the fourth quarter [88]. (5) Cost - The cost of polysilicon is mainly composed of electricity, silicon powder, and other raw materials, with electricity accounting for about 50%. The "anti - involution" policy in 2025 prohibited selling below cost [89]. - There are differences in the calculation basis of polysilicon cost between market participants and production enterprises. In 2026, with the progress of the industrial storage platform, the concentration of production will further increase, and it will play a leading role in guiding the cost and price of polysilicon, which is an important bottom - support for the price [90]. 4. Summary: Supply - Demand Structure and Strategy Suggestions for Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon in 2026 (1) Industrial Silicon - In 2026, the overcapacity of industrial silicon is expected to continue, but policy regulation will guide production to increase slightly by 3% and demand to increase by about 5%. The mainstream price range is expected to be 7,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and factors such as capacity optimization, enterprise production adjustment, and price transmission in the photovoltaic industry chain should be focused on [94]. (2) Polysilicon - Polysilicon has greater variability. Currently, it has overcapacity and high inventory, but policy - based storage and price - support from leading enterprises provide strong support. In 2026, it faces the challenge of declining terminal demand, and policy implementation will have a significant impact on prices. Capacity elimination and optimization are certain events, and polysilicon is generally "prone to rise but difficult to fall". It is recommended to conduct risk - hedging based on production conditions [97][98].

Group 1 - The organic silicon concept declined by 0.99%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with notable declines in stocks such as Jitai Co., Sanyou Chemical, and Huasheng Lithium [1] - The top gainers in the organic silicon sector included Shengbang Co., Tianci Materials, and ST Xinya, with increases of 3.00%, 2.14%, and 1.11% respectively [1] - The organic silicon concept saw a net inflow of 230 million yuan, with 37 stocks experiencing net outflows, and the largest outflow was from Dongyue Silicon Material, which saw a net outflow of 55.09 million yuan [1][2] Group 2 - The top stocks with net inflows included Tianci Materials, Delian Group, and Hengxing Technology, with net inflows of 705 million yuan, 3.75 million yuan, and 2.18 million yuan respectively [3] - The stocks with the largest net outflows also included Fuxiang Pharmaceutical, Xiangyuan New Materials, and Hesheng Silicon Industry, with net outflows of 45.62 million yuan, 37.89 million yuan, and 30.40 million yuan respectively [1][2]

Group 1: AI-Driven Chemical Industry - The integration of AI in the chemical industry is expected to create investment opportunities across four key areas: research, production, operations, and supply chain management, leading to a data-driven and optimized system [5][6] - The demand for new chemical materials is driven by the energy consumption of AI data centers, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 44.8% in IT energy consumption from 2022 to 2027 [6] - The renewable energy generation in China is currently about 35%, with a future target of nearly 90%, emphasizing the need for green energy materials [7] - The new energy storage plan aims for a scale of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, with significant investments expected in lithium battery storage [8] - The manufacturing sector is poised for growth, particularly in high-end electronic resins and specialty engineering plastics, as domestic companies catch up with international standards [9] - The cooling materials market is projected to exceed $7 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate of over 10% from 2024 to 2034, driven by the demand for AI-related cooling solutions [11] Group 2: Refrigeration Equipment Industry - The refrigeration and air conditioning industry in China is at a critical turning point, transitioning from a growth phase to a stable development phase dominated by replacement demand [12] - Strategic acquisitions in the HVAC sector are becoming common as companies seek to establish local distribution networks and adapt to market differences [13] - The commercial refrigeration sector, particularly in data center cooling, is highlighted as a growth area due to increasing demand for energy-efficient solutions [14] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading companies in household refrigeration, specialized cooling solutions, and upstream components benefiting from data center demands [14]

Core Viewpoint - The silicon-based new materials industry in China is transitioning from low-price competition to value competition, driven by policy guidance, innovation, and industry collaboration [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The silicon-based new materials sector has faced structural contradictions due to rapid capacity expansion, particularly in the organic silicon field, where annual capacity growth exceeded 15% while market demand grew only 8%-10% [2]. - Companies are engaged in price wars, with some selling below cost, leading to significant profit margin compression and reduced investment in R&D and innovation [2][3]. - Product homogeneity is prevalent, with many small enterprises lacking core technology and focusing on low-value products, while high-end products remain heavily reliant on imports [2]. Group 2: Policy and Industry Response - In response to the low-price competition, leading companies like Hoshine Silicon Industry have taken the initiative to promote self-discipline and industry consensus to combat price wars [3][4]. - The Chinese government has introduced policies to regulate market competition, including a notice from the National Development and Reform Commission aimed at curbing disorderly pricing practices [3][4]. Group 3: Value Creation and Innovation - Hoshine Silicon Industry emphasizes internal transformation through refined management, technological innovation, and industry chain collaboration to enhance resilience and break free from price competition [5][6]. - The company has maintained a research and development expenditure growth rate of over 20% annually, significantly above the industry average, and has established partnerships with academic institutions to foster innovation [6]. Group 4: Market Recovery and Future Outlook - Since 2025, the organic silicon industry has seen improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with core product prices rebounding and profitability recovering among leading companies [7]. - The demand is shifting towards high-value sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and 5G communications, while the capacity expansion cycle has ended, indicating a transition towards green transformation and technological upgrades in the silicon-based new materials sector [7].