【导读】压单又来了！ 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今天在一系列"降温"措施之下，市场震荡下跌，一起看看发生了什么事情。 1月26日，沪指全天横盘震荡，深成指、创业板指跌近1%。截至收盘， 沪指跌0.09%，深成 指跌0.85%，创业板指跌0.91%。 个股跌多涨少， 1604只个股上涨，77只个股涨停，3771只个股下跌。 | 880005 4 1 2 3 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 草中 | 涨停 | | | | | 涨幅 | > 7% | | | 152 | | 涨幅 | 5-7% | 1 | | 100 | | 张幅 | 3-5% | | | 219 | | 涨幅 | 0-3% | | | 1133 | | 跌幅 | 0-3% | | | 2402 | | 跌幅 | 3-5% | | | 900 | | 跌幅 | 5-7% | | | 269 | | 跌幅 | > 7% | | | 200 | | 其中 跌停 | | | | 40 | | 上涨家数 下跌家数 | | | | 1604 | | | | | | 3771 | | | | | | ...

Market Performance - The micro-cap stock index reached a historical high last week, while large-cap indices like the CSI 300 and SSE 50 experienced adjustments [1] - This morning, large-cap stocks strengthened, with the SSE 50 index rising over 1.8% at its peak, while the micro-cap index and the CSI 2000 index both declined, with the latter down 1.39% [1] - By the close of the morning session, the SSE index rose by 0.12%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.74% and 0.86%, respectively, with total market turnover exceeding 2.26 trillion yuan [3] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong performance, particularly in precious metals, with leading stocks like Zijin Mining and China Uranium Industry experiencing significant gains [4] - Several precious metal companies announced profit forecasts for 2025, with Zijin Mining expecting a net profit of 51 to 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62% [7] - The insurance sector was active, with major companies like New China Life Insurance and China Pacific Insurance seeing collective gains, and New China Life Insurance rising over 4% [9][11] Catalysts for Growth - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to geopolitical factors and fluctuations in confidence towards U.S. assets, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [7] - Three main catalysts for the non-ferrous metals sector include: 1. Recovery in manufacturing and inventory replenishment cycles, with PMI indicators returning to expansion [8] 2. Long-term demand reshaping due to green and technological trends, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [8] 3. Liquidity expectations and financial attributes, with a favorable environment for precious metals due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]

广州期货认为，当下驱动铜价上涨逻辑有所松动，但铜矿供应脆弱+新兴领域带来的刚性需求，以及战 略资源属性愈发强化，铜价底部依旧坚实，调整空间相对有限，倾向于震荡蓄势后延续涨势。 铜业股午前集体走强，截至发稿，中国有色矿业(01258)涨12.02%，报16.68港元；五矿资源(01208)涨 11.02%，报5.05港元；中国黄金（600916）国际(02099)涨7.25%，报233.6港元；紫金矿业（601899） (02899)涨5.05%，报42.46港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)涨4.07%，报47.06港元。 消息面上，正信期货表示，宏观预期情绪有所降温，但地缘担忧仍存，尽管美国政府持续施压美联储， 但市场对于降息定价较为保守，同时通胀数据暂未超预期，失业率回落，美国自身经济韧性仍存。产业 端来看，虽然远期的供需预期暂难证伪，但近段弱现实特征延续，全球库存进一步增加至100万吨。铜 价在10万关口调整后再度反弹，主要还是受地缘以及金价指引，价格高位震荡为主。 ...

数据显示，达诚基金旗下1只基金重仓江西铜业。达诚成长先锋混合A（010301）四季度持有股数3.52万 股，占基金净值比例为5.07%，位居第二大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约10.84万元。 达诚成长先锋混合A（010301）成立日期2020年10月27日，最新规模2507.65万。今年以来收益5.46%， 同类排名4760/9003；近一年收益26.17%，同类排名4921/8185；成立以来收益3.91%。 达诚成长先锋混合A（010301）基金经理为陈染。 1月26日，江西铜业涨5.17%，截至发稿，报62.69元/股，成交6.25亿元，换手率0.49%，总市值2170.79 亿元。 资料显示，江西铜业股份有限公司位于江西省南昌市高新开发区昌东大道7666号，成立日期1997年1月 24日，上市日期2002年1月11日，公司主营业务涉及铜和黄金的采选、冶炼与加工;稀散金属的提取与加 工;硫化工以及金融、贸易等领域。主营业务收入构成为：阴极铜50.21%，铜杆线19.55%，黄金 14.50%，铜精矿、稀散及其他有色金属6.91%，白银3.21%，铜加工产品2.66%，其他产品1.65%，化工 产品( ...

当国际金价距离5000美元/盎司仅一步之遥，当伦敦银现仅用两个月时间便实现翻倍，当铜铝铅锌锡上 演起"元素周期表"行情，当硫磺价格一年翻倍、碳酸锂迭创新高……这一系列看似独立的市场脉冲正汇 聚成一股时代洪流，宣告着全球大宗商品市场正迈入新一轮的"超级周期"。 "这轮周期的持续强度、持续时间都可能远超我们想象。"近期，多位基金经理向券商中国记者表达了类 似的观点，在全球货币超发、美元信用危机、技术革命创新需求、地缘冲突引发供应链重构等众多因素 共振下，全球大宗商品可能迎来一场远超市场预期的周期浪潮，而嗅觉敏锐的公募基金正闻风而动，将 投资罗盘的指针拨向现代工业的"血液"与"基石"——有色金属与基础化工，不仅定位着这场全球商品盛 宴的历史坐标，更寻找着浪潮之下具体的产业掘金路径。 全球大宗商品迎来第三轮"超级周期" 其四，长达十年的资本开支收缩期后的供给约束。上述基金经理指出，全球有色金属主要品种的资本开 支在2011年见顶后，步入了漫长的收缩期。勘探投入持续低迷，叠加全球矿山品位的自然下降，导致主 要金属品种的产出缺口日益明显。供给端的约束，是本轮周期最具刚性的一环。 "目前我们处于过往60年以来第三轮全球商品 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the contrasting trading strategies of long-term fund managers compared to the overall public fund adjustments in Q4 2025, indicating a divergence in stock selection amidst a volatile market environment [1][2]. Fund Manager Adjustments - In Q4 2025, Zhongji Xuchuang replaced Ningde Times as the top holding for public funds, with an increase in market value exceeding 22 billion yuan. However, several long-term fund managers chose to reduce their positions in Zhongji Xuchuang, with reductions exceeding 40% by managers like Mo Haibo and Shen Ai Qian [1][2]. - Similar trends were observed with another popular stock, Xinyi Semiconductor, where public funds increased holdings by over 9 billion yuan, yet long-term fund manager Yang Dong reduced his position by over 40% [2]. - Notably, Industrial Fulian exited the top ten holdings for public funds, while some long-term managers like Liu Yuanhai increased their positions, showcasing differing strategies among fund managers [3]. Portfolio Management - Many long-term fund managers opted to lower their stock positions in Q4 2025, aligning with the overall trend of reduced stock allocations in public funds. For instance, the stock allocation of Mo Haibo's fund dropped from 85.20% to 71.92%, a decrease of approximately 13 percentage points [4]. - The concentration of holdings among long-term funds remained high, with many funds having over 50% of their net asset value in the top ten holdings, although some funds showed a noticeable decrease in concentration compared to Q3 2025 [5]. Sector Allocation - Fund managers displayed a diversified approach in their sector allocations, favoring areas such as AI, cyclical stocks, and consumer sectors. For example, Yang Dong's fund gained excess returns by focusing on AI and robotics, while Liu Yuanhai's fund adjusted its AI allocations during Q4 2025 [6][7]. - The cyclical sector gained traction among fund managers, with significant investments in non-ferrous metals and chemicals. For instance, Li You's fund made substantial increases in holdings of companies like Zijin Mining and Yun Aluminum [6][9]. - In the consumer and social services sectors, managers like Mo Haibo and Miao Weibin focused on domestic demand-related stocks, indicating a strategic shift towards consumer resilience and emerging consumption trends [6][9]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, long-term fund managers maintain an optimistic outlook for the A-share market, anticipating a potential upward trend driven by multiple positive factors, including corporate earnings recovery and improved liquidity [7][8]. - The AI sector remains a focal point, with managers emphasizing the importance of AI applications over hardware, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards practical applications of AI technology [8][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - Liquidity expectations have upgraded, leading to intensified trading. Recent optimistic interest rate cut expectations have resurfaced, driving both precious and industrial metals to break through previous levels. In the past week, the negative feedback for copper and aluminum has significantly weakened, and improvements in the real economy may be observed under high price conditions. Overall, the bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the support of domestic and international policies [3][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The report indicates an upgrade in liquidity expectations and a continuation of intense trading. The probability of BlackRock executive Riedel being elected as the Federal Reserve Chairman has surged to 54%. The optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts have reignited, pushing precious and industrial metals to new highs. Although copper and aluminum inventories continue to accumulate, the pace of accumulation has slowed, and the negative feedback from downstream processing has significantly diminished, with operating rates beginning to recover [9][13]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 6.03%, ranking fourth among all industries [28]. The report lists several investment targets, including Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) and Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) [4]. 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing intense liquidity trading, awaiting the confirmation of the Federal Reserve Chairman nomination. As of January 23, SHFE gold rose by 8.07% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 7.54% to 4,036.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the market expects limited upward pressure on precious metals in the short term due to anticipated interest rate stabilization [14][30]. 4. Copper - The report highlights renewed support for copper prices due to supply disruptions. As of January 23, SHFE copper rose by 0.57% to 101,340 CNY per ton, and LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton. Supply tightness continues, with recent strikes in Chile affecting copper concentrate availability [17][70]. 5. Aluminum - The report indicates a reduction in negative feedback for aluminum, with demand showing marginal recovery. As of January 23, SHFE aluminum rose by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, and LME aluminum increased by 1.12% to 3,169 USD per ton. The processing operating rate has risen by 0.7 percentage points to 60.9% [16][83].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 金银齐舞，美元信用弱势与现货结构性紧缺塑造价格新高 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 我们统计相对历史最高价，大部分有色金属当前价格尚处于腰部及以下。民族 主义强化大叙事，资源股维持逢低加仓、长期坚定持有。重点关注金银铜铝钨 铀稀土锂钴钽镁镍等品种。短期推荐寻找补涨金属、标的。此外，关注科技成 长相关新材料标的。马斯克点燃商业航天主题，关注斯瑞新材、西部材料、有 研粉材、银邦股份等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 236 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 8324.2 | 7.3 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 7294.7 | 7.0 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 20.9 | 61.5 | 102.5 | | 相对表现 | 19.1 | 47.3 | 78.8 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 1、《核电全球复苏，铀价中枢预计 整体上行—核能系列报 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 25 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年01月23日 华源晨会精粹 20260125 固定收益 25Q4 理财资产配置有何变化——中国银行业理财市场年度报告（2025 年）点评：截至 25 年末，银行理财市场存续规模 33.29 万亿元，较 25Q3+1.2 万亿 元，较 24 年末+3.3 万亿元。由于债券收益率处于历史低位，我们预计 26 年混合类 产品存续规模会持续回升。2026 年理财规模仍有望增长 3 万亿以上。截至 25 年末， 全市场一共有 191 家理财机构，其中有 159 家银行机构，32 家理财公司，较 25Q3 分别-22 家/持平。我们预计至 26 年底，理财市场或将向理财公司持续转移。25Q4 理财大幅增配公募基金，减配权益类资产和同业存单，债券投资占比处于近年低位。 低利率时代，25Q4 理财产品平均收益率走弱。2026 年债市行情可能好于预期。建 议关注超长债波段操作机会，建议重点配置 3-5Y 资本债以获取票息，超长债搓波段， 关注多资产投资机会。 风险提示。财政政策超预期发力，导 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement. As of January 23, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 101,340 CNY/ton, up 0.57% from January 16, while LME copper closed at 13,129 USD/ton, up 2.54% from January 16 [1] - The report highlights that the TC spot price has reached a historical low, indicating ongoing tightness in copper concentrate procurement. Although cable manufacturers' operating rates have improved, domestic social inventory continues to rise, which may suppress demand due to rising copper prices. However, the outlook for 2026 remains optimistic for copper price increases [1][4] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 2.9%, while LME copper inventory rose by 16.9% as of January 23, 2026. The main port copper concentrate inventory in China was 719,000 tons, up 4.1% from the previous week [2] - The TC spot price was recorded at -50 USD/ton, marking a historical low. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [3][4] Futures Market - As of January 23, 2026, the active SHFE copper contract had a position of 231,000 lots, an increase of 6.4% from the previous week, indicating strong market interest [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with tightening supply and improving demand, copper prices are likely to continue rising. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, with a focus on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4][5]