【国金农业】再次强调牧场与生猪投资机会 随着天气逐步转暖以及南方补栏需求的提升，节后价格有望快速上涨。 中期来看行业产能去化幅度巨大，牛价有望破历史新高，看好肉奶共振的牧业大周期。 #重点推荐：优然牧业、现代牧业、中国圣牧等，以及关注受益的紫燕食品、光明肉业等。 节后散奶价的偏弱运行使得板块近期存在调整，淡季乳企本就会适当减少收奶量从而增加散奶供给，目前的价格 明显优于去年同期，而且散奶价格的下跌利好行业产能进一步去化，中期奶价反转趋势不变。 牛肉端来看：#冻品价格持续上涨，目前均价54.4元/公斤，周环比+1.7%，上涨驱动为下游补库和一致看多情绪。 牛市正月十五之前交易量较小，目前公牛犊成交价格稳定在40 【国金农业】再次强调牧场与生猪投资机会 节后散奶价的偏弱运行使得板块近期存在调整，淡季乳企本就会适当减少收奶量从而增加散奶供给，目前的价格 明显优于去年同期，而且散奶价格的下跌利好行业产能进一步去化，中期奶价反转趋势不变。 牛肉端来看：#冻品价格持续上涨，目前均价54.4元/公斤，周环比+1.7%，上涨驱动为下游补库和一致看多情绪。 牛市正月十五之前交易量较小，目前公牛犊成交价格稳定在40元/公斤左右， ...

Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for companies like Haidilao, China Feihe, and Yurun Agriculture, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the month-on-month cost indices for six categories of consumer goods are predominantly declining, while futures indices are mostly increasing, reflecting a mixed cost environment [34]. - The overall trend shows that year-on-year cost indices remain low across various categories, indicating a challenging pricing environment for the industry [34]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer decreased by 0.52% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.41%. Year-to-date, the spot and futures indices have cumulatively changed by -1.12% and -0.32%, respectively [35]. - Glass prices increased by 1.4% month-on-month but decreased by 17.7% year-on-year, indicating volatility in raw material costs [35]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings increased by 0.06% month-on-month, while the futures index rose by 2.14%. Year-to-date changes show a cumulative decline of -0.46% for spot and an increase of 3% for futures [36]. - Soybean prices rose significantly, with spot prices increasing by 1.62% month-on-month and 6.93% year-on-year [36]. Dairy - The spot cost index for dairy products rose by 0.27% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.08%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.2% [37]. - Fresh milk prices remain stable at 3.04 yuan/kg, with corn prices showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles decreased by 1.03% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.01%. Year-to-date changes show a cumulative decline of -1.12% for spot and an increase of 2.9% for futures [38]. - Palm oil prices have shown a significant year-on-year decline, impacting overall cost structures [38]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods decreased by 0.52% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 0.66%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.99% [39]. - Vegetable prices have shown a month-on-month decline of 5.1%, reflecting seasonal supply dynamics [39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks decreased by 1.28% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.54%. Year-to-date changes indicate a cumulative decline of -2.5% for spot indices [40]. - PET chip prices have decreased, contributing to the overall cost pressures in the soft drink sector [40].

25 年复盘：周期底部磨底，现金盈利韧性凸显1） 营收端，公司25H1 实现营收60.7 亿元（同 比-5.4%），其中原料奶业务收入50.7 亿元（同比-0.8%）；受原奶均价同比下跌拖累，但公司依托年化 单产的行业领先优势，实现量增有效对冲价跌压力；我们预计25年全年原奶产量达中高个位数增长，全 年原奶业务收入或实现低单位数增长，规模效应持续显现。 2） 利润端，25H1 归母净利润亏损9.8 亿元，主因原奶价格弱势导致生物资产公允价值变动产生大额非 现金账面亏损；剔除非现金因素影响后，25H1 现金EBITDA 14.8 亿元（同比-2.5%）；随下半年淘牛价 格逐步抬升、重估损失有望环比改善，我们预计25 年报表端亏损收窄。 26 年展望：周期复苏启势，奶肉共振有望释放盈利弹性中性假设下，我们预计26 年原奶供需紧平衡、 奶价企稳回升，肉牛价格继续上行，叠加收购中国圣牧有望26 年完成交割，公司有望实现盈利改善： 1） 现金利润：我们预计26 年原奶端受益于行业产能出清后的供需再平衡，量价协同有望拉动原奶业务 收入同比实现中单位数增长；同时受益于饲料成本提前锁定下行趋势和单产稳步提升，主业盈利弹性或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng Securities indicates that due to weak demand and rapid capacity expansion, the supply of consumer goods will exceed demand, leading to a continuous decline in prices from 2021 to 2025, negatively impacting prices, profits, and valuations. It is expected that some consumer goods prices may have bottomed out by 2025, with a potential upward trend starting in 2026 if demand improves. The report recommends focusing on the catering supply chain and the dairy industry chain [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The period from 2017 to 2022 saw rapid capital expenditure growth in consumer goods, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14%. The years 2020 to 2025 are expected to be peak years for capacity expansion, resulting in significant supply increases. Demand has been weak since 2021, with restaurant demand growth slowing from double digits before 2020 to low single digits in recent years [2]. - The frozen food sector has seen slight volume growth but significant price declines. Despite a weak restaurant market, there is still potential for penetration growth in the frozen segment due to standardization and cost reduction. Major companies are experiencing a decline in net profit margins [2]. - In the seasoning sector, basic seasoning volumes have decreased slightly, while prices have also dropped. The demand for basic seasonings is under pressure due to weak restaurant performance, but the competitive landscape remains stable. The revenue of leading companies has also declined [3]. Price Trends and Future Outlook - By 2025, some consumer goods prices may have reached a temporary bottom, driven by supply-side improvements and terminal price dysfunction. An upward price cycle is anticipated to begin in 2026, with stronger price elasticity and sustainability if demand improves. The catering supply chain and dairy industry chain are highlighted for potential growth [4]. - In the catering supply chain, the "price" logic is beginning to play out, which may lead to simultaneous improvements in price, profit, and valuation. The frozen food industry is expected to see a bottoming out of supply, while the seasoning sector is projected to stabilize in terms of price and profit by 2025 [4]. - The dairy industry chain is characterized by the beef cycle and raw milk cycle, with a strong certainty of growth. It is expected that beef prices will continue to rise in 2026, improving profit margins, while raw milk prices may start to reflect upward trends in the second half of 2026 [5]. Investment Recommendations - For the catering supply chain, the report recommends focusing on frozen food companies like Anjijia, seasoning companies like Yihai International, and companies undergoing turnaround like Qianhe Flavor and Zhongju Gaoxin. Attention is also drawn to Baoli Food [6]. - In the dairy industry chain, the report suggests monitoring Youran Agriculture and recommends companies like Modern Farming, New Dairy, Yili, and Mengniu [6].

Group 1: Agriculture Industry Insights - The domestic pet consumption market is evolving from basic needs to emotional narratives, driving upgrades in pet food and medical services, indicating a new growth phase for the industry [6] - The USDA's February report predicts a stable beef price outlook for 2026, with increased global soybean ending stocks due to South American production [9][11] - The domestic pet medical market is expected to expand significantly, driven by pet aging and the need for better healthcare services, with a low current chain rate indicating room for consolidation [7][11] Group 2: Consumer Services Industry Strategy - The Spring Festival holiday data shows a 9.6% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow, indicating strong demand for travel and services [14] - Hotel industry performance improved significantly during the holiday, with a 30.7% increase in REVPAR, driven by strong demand and price stabilization among leading groups [14] - The domestic retail and catering sectors saw an 8.6% increase in average daily sales during the holiday, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending [14] Group 3: Automotive Industry Analysis - The report highlights Sensata Technologies as a leading global supplier in automotive exterior parts, benefiting from a diversified product range and a strong cash flow for R&D [16] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing electric vehicle market, with significant revenue expected from battery box sales in Europe [17] - Sensata is expanding into new sectors such as robotics and liquid cooling, indicating a strategic diversification of its product offerings [18] Group 4: Financial Engineering and Investment Value - The report emphasizes the potential of the non-ferrous metals sector, with macroeconomic conditions favoring price recovery and demand growth driven by emerging industries [19][20] - The Southern China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals ETF is highlighted as a key investment vehicle, with strong liquidity and a comprehensive product line from a leading fund manager [22] - The index's performance is expected to outperform the broader market, supported by strong earnings growth from major companies in the sector [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry [3] Core Insights - The current operating cycle for mass consumer goods has been characterized by oversupply, leading to declines in price and profit margins [9] - Demand has weakened since 2021, with restaurant demand growth dropping from double digits to low single digits [9] - Prices for mass consumer goods have been on a downward trend since 2021, with leading companies experiencing significant price reductions [9] - The report anticipates that prices may have reached a bottom in 2025, with potential for recovery in 2026 if demand improves [27] Summary by Sections Review of Current Operating Cycle - The food and beverage sector has faced a supply-demand imbalance, resulting in continuous price declines from 2021 to 2025, affecting prices, profits, and valuations [12] - Capital expenditure in the mass consumer goods sector grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2017 to 2022, leading to significant capacity expansion [9][12] Price Outlook for 2025 - The report suggests that prices may have reached a phase of stabilization, with indicators showing improvements in consumer price index (CPI) and food CPI [27] - Restaurant revenue data indicates a potential bottoming out of demand, with a recovery in consumer spending expected [27] Investment Recommendations - For the restaurant supply chain, the report recommends focusing on frozen foods, seasoning products, and beer, highlighting companies like Anjuke Foods and Yihai International for their market share growth and pricing strategies [42][43] - In the dairy industry, the report suggests monitoring companies such as Modern Farming and Yili Group, anticipating price improvements in the second half of 2026 [42][43]

Macro Insights - The report identifies three historical "great migrations" of Chinese household wealth, with the third migration starting in 2023, indicating a shift in asset allocation trends[3] - The first migration (1998-2018) saw a significant flow of deposits into real estate due to housing market reforms, establishing real estate as a core asset class[4] - The second migration (2018-2023) involved a return to deposits as real estate values declined and risk aversion increased among residents[5] - The third migration reflects a transition to a "deposit+" era, where residents are diversifying into financial products beyond traditional deposits due to lower interest rates and improved returns in bond and equity markets[6] Market Strategy - Foreign capital continues to flow into the market, with a net inflow of $3.7 million in foreign investment as of February 11, 2026, and a significant increase in public fund issuance, reaching 43.63 billion yuan[9] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.1 trillion yuan, while the proportion of stocks rising increased to 47.6%[8] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 44.18 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards active management strategies[9] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical market for anticoagulants is projected to grow from $52.9 billion in 2023 to over $110 billion by 2033, driven by aging populations and increasing cardiovascular disease rates[13] - The heavy-duty truck market in China is expected to see sales of 760,000 units in 2026, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while January 2026 saw a 46% increase in domestic heavy-duty truck sales compared to the previous year[16][17] - The aviation sector is experiencing a resurgence, with a 6% increase in passenger flow during the Spring Festival period, and ticket prices are expected to rise by 3-4% year-on-year due to increased demand[30][32]

今日早参 2026 年 2 月 25 日 庄汀洲 石油与化工行业首席研究员 座机：010-56793939 邮箱：zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com 刘俊 电力设备与新能源行业首席研究员 座机：85293275834 邮箱：karlliu@htsc.com 边文姣 电力设备与新能源行业联席首席研究 员 座机：0755-82776411 邮箱：bianwenjiao@htsc.com 今日热点 基础化工：美将磷系农资列入战略资源影响深远 2026 年 2 月 18 日，特朗普政府援引《国防生产法》发布行政令，正式将磷 元素与草甘膦除草剂列为美国战略资源，以保障国内供应链安全。全球近几 年 80%的磷资源下游用于磷肥，草甘膦由于转基因抗性种子需求成为全球第 一大除草剂，二者是全球农资的核心环节。据 USGS，2025 年美国磷矿石 进口依存度 16%，主要来自秘鲁及摩洛哥。美国草甘膦本土产能充足，但考 虑厂商到对欧洲及南美的供应，仍需进口中国产草甘膦。相对而言，中国磷 矿石自给率较高，而草甘膦净出口且产能略过剩。我们认为，磷系农资列入 战略物资因美国对二者供应稳定性的强调，短期在粮价低迷需求不振背景 ...

（来源：邯郸日报） 该区聚力夯实全区"一品一播"团队的电商专业能力，积极引进外部成熟资源。目前该区先后组织开展了 多期专业培训，特邀河北省"感动省城"十大人物——石家庄灵寿县团泊口村支部书记、助农达人谷海涛 就"电商直播助力乡村振兴"主题，对相关部门、乡镇、街道主要负责人以及村、社区党支部书记和带货 达人进行专题培训。建立主播激励机制和成长支持体系，同时积极对接浙江、山东等地的成熟MCN机 构和带货达人开展专场带货。1月中旬以来通过与浙江爆款羽绒服厂家深度合作，由带货达人专场带 货，仅7天销售额就突破千万元。 邯山区"一品一播"坚持"买全国、卖全国"，在持续深挖本地产品的同时，积极对接头部品牌与高利润供 应链资源。不断完善"邯郸本地供应链+外部优质供应链"双库建设，建立"邯山优选"选品库。今年已成 功获得君乐宝乳业品牌直播授权，并计划筹备品牌专场直播。同时，该区积极引入高客单价产品，提 升"一品一播"直播货盘档次与吸引力。截至目前，该区已获得苹果品牌相关授权，达成了与浙江羽绒服 厂家共同打造冬季爆款产品的深度合作，"邯山优品"选品库已有鼎康粮油、邯雪食品、邯郸制药、金大 智能、君乐宝、小黄鸭童装、猴王茶叶等多 ...

摘要 国内原奶市场面临挑战，市场占比萎缩至 15%，70%牧场亏损，饲料 成本高企（占现金成本 60%-70%），2025 年青贮玉米价格上涨加剧 养殖户压力，预计 2026 年饲料价格保持平稳略增。 乳制品需求端边际改善，2025 年前三季度产量同比波动，国家出台促 消费政策有望提振信心。长期来看，中国乳制品消费潜力巨大，深加工 产能扩张将增加生鲜乳需求。 预计 2026 年原奶行业供需紧平衡，或迎拐点。进口大包粉影响有限， 价格高于国内生鲜乳，且全球主要出口国牛奶产量预计稳定，进口量不 会显著提升。 活牛和冻精进口量减少，国内上游出清和国际供应压力减轻，预示未来 供应趋紧。肉牛市场自 2025 年触底反弹，牛肉和肉牛价格分别上涨 11%和 10%。 肉牛养殖周期长，产能传导滞后，本轮肉牛上行周期明确，供需错配加 剧和上游出清将推动肉价上涨，前期亏损推动上游深度去化，为后续市 场提供支撑。 Q&A 2026 年原奶价格的趋势展望如何？ 2026 年原奶价格有望迎来拐点。首先，从供给端来看，国内上游的出清已经 持续多年，奶价自下跌以来已累计下降超过 30%，导致大量养殖场户亏损严重， 尤其是社会化牧场，其经营 ...