2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：不确定性增强，价格震荡 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：区间震荡 | 5 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 7 | | 锡：关注关税影响 | 8 | | 铝：节后风偏偏强 | 9 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 9 | | 铂：受白银走强提振 | 11 | | 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 | 11 | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | 15 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂复产节奏 | 17 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格下跌 | 17 | | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | ...

星展发表研报指，对铜、金价格的乐观情绪将支撑紫金矿业的盈利增长，预期至2027年盈利复合年增长 率达44%。受惠于央行增加黄金储备及交易所买卖基金相关的投机需求，对黄金的乐观情绪得到强化。 另一方面，由于矿山干扰、品位下降以及能源转型和人工智能热潮带来的需求不减，预计铜市场供应短 缺加剧。该行预期2026年平均金价及伦敦金属交易所铜价将分别上涨39.3%及12.1%，至每盎司4700美 元及每吨11000美元。该行维持其紫金矿业"买入"评级，并上调H股目标价至55港元。 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated February 24, 2026, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: Speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel remains, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradictions in nickel ore [2]. - Stainless steel: The cost - support center has moved up, but off - season inventory accumulation restricts its elasticity [2]. - Lithium carbonate: Supply and demand are tight, and the futures price has bottom support [2]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of silicon wafers has declined [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel futures was 135,190, down 4,420 from the previous day; the closing price of stainless - steel futures was 13,860, down 110 from the previous day. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also changed to varying degrees [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses, plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ores, and some mines are facing potential fines. There are also issues such as monopoly in port logistics in the IMIP park, and some overseas nickel mines plan to restart operations [4][5][6]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 152,640, up 3,220 from the previous day. Data on trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of upstream and downstream products in the lithium - salt industry chain also showed corresponding changes [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Samsung SDI has made a breakthrough in lithium - metal batteries, and the construction project of Zijin Mining's solid - state battery lithium - new material has started [12][13]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,395 yuan/ton, up 60 from the previous day; the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 49,305 yuan/ton, up 290 from the previous day. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, and profits of related products, and the price of silicon wafers decreased [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China Pingmei Shenma Group, Longi Green Energy, and the Zambian government signed a cooperation memorandum for a 1000 - megawatt solar - power project [15][17]. - **Trend Strength**: The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17].

❤①新年好，本篇内容较多，照旧我们把重要结论放在前面：看好贵金属>能源金属>战略金属=工业金属。以今 日港股为例，市场主要还是对地缘和关税反应，2.23日港股有色板块全线大涨：香港有色金属指数+4.51%，居港 股行业涨幅前列。个股普涨、放量上行，资金流入明显，呈现贵金属领涨、基本金属/新能源金属共振格局。 其中： 1. 黄金/贵金属（最强） 潼关黄金+12%、赤峰黄金+7%+、紫金黄金国际 中国黄金国际+6%+、紫金矿业 万国黄金 招金矿业+5%+ -核心：地缘避险+金价修复+央行购金+降息预期 2. 锂/新能源金属（次强） 赣锋锂业+8%+、天齐锂业+3%+ -核心：节前持续去库+需求预期较好+板块估值修复+大盘反弹 3. 铜铝/基本金属（跟涨） 五矿资源+6%+、江西铜业+4%+、中国宏桥、洛阳钼业+2%–3% -核心：关税扰动暂缓+油价上行+经济复苏预期+美元走弱 标的选择上，经历了春节前的调整，很多标的又出现较好买点，估值差异并不是非常大 1贵金属：1）黄金 紫金黄金国际、山东黄金、招金矿业、万国黄金集团、中国黄金国际、山金国际等2）白银 盛达资源、兴业银锡等 2能源金属：1）核心弹性标的：国城矿业 ...

截至2026年2月24日10:16，恒生科技指数(HSTECH)下跌2.29%，蔚来-SW涨2.29%，联想集团涨1.17%， 金蝶国际领跌，商汤-W、腾讯音乐-SW跟跌。 截至2026年2月12日，恒生科技ETF汇添富近11天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得4184.83万元净流 入，合计"吸金"4.18亿元，日均净流入达3796.13万元。 截至2026年2月13日，恒生科技ETF汇添富的场外联接产品汇添富恒生科技ETF联接发起式 (QDII)C(013128)单位净值为0.85元。 消息方面，2月23日，恒指、恒生科技指数全天强势震荡，恒生指数收涨2.53%，恒生科技指数收涨 3.34%。板块方面，科技龙头、半导体、有色、新能源汽车股表现亮眼，紫金矿业、美团、中芯国际涨 超5%；恒生科技成分股中，蔚来、美团、中芯国际涨超5%，比亚迪股份、华虹半导体涨超4%，京东、 腾讯、阿里、小米、百度等涨超3%。 科技经济正加速替代地产经济成为增长新引擎，东方证券指出，2025年新质生产力主要行业对总产出的 影响程度已超过传统地产建筑链条；新质生产力以新兴制造业和高附加值服务业为核心，单位产值拉动 效应更强，但对PP ...

国信证券最新观点认为，关键矿产的资源属性愈发凸显，由于供给高度集中、地缘风险频发以及新兴需 求刚性增长，多数品种供需将维持紧平衡，价格中枢有望稳步抬升。 在宏观不确定性中，资本市场通过"真金白银"的配置流向，表达了对关键矿产战略价值及资源品安全逻 辑的深度锚定。根据机构统计，2025年，有色和化工相关公募基金资产净值实现大幅扩容，合计规模由 2024年的143亿元增加至2025年的967亿元。其中，有色相关基金规模从2024年111亿元增加至2025年的 666亿元。紫金矿业、云铝股份、天华新能、中矿资源、洛阳钼业等矿产龙头增持金额居前。 华福证券认为，贵金属方面，短期而言，美联储降息预期摇摆，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而言， 全球关税政策和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核心，长期配置价值不 改。工业金属方面，随美联储降息加深提振投资和消费，同时打开国内货币政策空间，叠加海外宽财政 带来的通胀反弹将支撑铜价中枢上移，新能源需求强劲将带动供需缺口拉大，继续看好铜价。国内天花 板+能源不足持续扰动，同时新能源需求仍保持旺盛，紧平衡致铝价易涨难跌。 节后首个交易日，有色金属板块集体大涨，贵 ...

马年首个交易日，A股早盘三大指数集体高开。 截至9:59，上证指数上涨0.59%，深证成指上涨0.93%，创业板指上涨0.67%，科创综指下跌1.26%。 盘面上，周期股早盘领涨，受外围地缘政治事件影响，油气开采、有色金属、港口航运等板块大涨，"三桶油"集体上涨，截至9:59，中国海油（600938） 涨超7%。洛阳钼业（603993）、紫金矿业（601899）等龙头股大涨。 东方证券表示，受地缘冲突影响，市场对油气供应减少的担忧上升，导致油价回升。而全球的油气资本开支正处于较低水平，存在向上恢复的空间。但 是，考虑到油气项目的建设周期较长，预计下游业主将更重视油气服务和装备企业的长期竞争力，因此看好具有高竞争力的油服装备企业的投资机会。 港口航运板块中，中远海能（600026）、招商轮船（601872）等个股大涨。消息面上，上期所欧线集运主力合约早盘一度涨超12%。 | | 油气开采及服务 2001.96 9.75% | | G | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基金 成分股 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 板块分析 | | 名称代码 | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | ...

Group 1: Report Title and General Information - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium: Tight Supply and Demand, with Bottom Support on the Futures Market" and was released on February 24, 2026 [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Summary - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 152,640, with a change of 3,220 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 300,191, down 4,607; and the open interest was 342,226, down 11,749. For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 153,000, up 3,600; the trading volume was 29,465, down 5,497; and the open interest was 90,394, up 95 [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 38,759, up 1,477 [2] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2605 was - 8,890, down 1,970; spot - 2607 was - 9,250, down 2,350; 2605 - 2607 was - 360, down 380; electro - carbon - industrial carbon was 3,500, unchanged; spot - CIF was 19,521, up 1,250 [2] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 2,000, unchanged; lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,640, up 65 [2] - **Lithium Salts and Related Products**: The price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 143,750, up 1,250; industrial - grade carbonate lithium was 140,250, up 1,250; battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 144,000, up 1,000; and various types of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also had different price changes [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - Samsung SDI announced a breakthrough in extending the lifespan and improving the safety of lithium - metal batteries, jointly developing a fluorine - based gel polymer electrolyte with Columbia University to suppress dendrite formation [3] - On February 14, 2026, the Zijin Mining solid - state battery lithium - ion new material construction project, undertaken by China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Third Company, officially started in Shanghang County, Longyan City, Fujian Province [4] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of carbonate lithium is 1, indicating a "neutral" state as it falls within the [-2, 2] integer range [4]

Group 1 - Precious metals prices have been rising during the Spring Festival, with spot gold reaching $5,200 per ounce, marking a nearly 2% increase since January 30 [1] - The main silver contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged by 13%, reaching 22,366 yuan per kilogram [1] - The U.S. macroeconomic data, including resilient employment figures and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, have weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts, pushing the anticipated first rate cut from June to July [1] Group 2 - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has risen by 3.44%, with component stocks such as silver and copper showing significant gains, including a 9.40% increase in silver and a 6.59% rise in Xinyi Silver [2] - The Nonferrous Metals Industry Index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metals sector, based on a selection of 50 securities with strong scale and liquidity [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 49.87% of the total, including major companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [2]

Market Performance - On February 23, the Hang Seng Index rose by 668 points (2.5%) to close at 27,081 points, surpassing the 27,000 mark[1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 173 points (3.3%) to close at 5,385 points[1] - Daily trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 173 billion[1] US Market Reaction - The Dow Jones Index fell by 821 points (1.6%) to close at 48,804 points[2] - The Nasdaq Index decreased by 258 points (1.1%) to close at 22,627 points[2] - The S&P 500 Index dropped by 71 points to close at 6,837 points[2] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Tensions in geopolitics led to a rise in international gold prices, which reached USD 5,100[1][2] - Trump's announcement of a 15% tariff increase on global imports following the Supreme Court's decision has created market uncertainty[1][2] Sector Performance - The automotive sector saw a rise of 2%-5% across most stocks, with over 9 million vehicles exported from mainland China[4] - The healthcare sector, represented by the Hang Seng Healthcare Index, increased by 1.6%[4] - Notable stock movements included a 5.4% rise for劲方生物 (2595 HK) and a 2.9% increase for中国生物制药 (1177 HK)[4] Domestic Travel Trends - Domestic travel orders on the 飞猪 platform for the 2026 Spring Festival increased by over 80% year-on-year, with hotel bookings up by 75%[3] - Popular theme park and attraction packages saw a 140% increase in order volume compared to the previous year[3]