潍柴动力 20260226 摘要 潍柴动力股价与数据中心业务关联性显著增强，自 2025 年 10 月以来 估值持续提升，已接近 20 倍，未来或可对标卡特彼勒，后者在数据中 心逻辑驱动下估值大幅提升，潍柴动力存在估值提升至 30-40 倍的可能 性。 尽管可比公司 2025 年业绩下滑，但估值仍显著抬升。潍柴动力在业绩 增长背景下，且 2026-2027 年预计有更好增长，具备估值向 30 倍甚至 40 倍提升的基础。 2026 年潍柴动力主业预计稳中有增，核心增量来自凯傲。凯傲 2025 年裁员费用影响净利润约 20 亿，2026 年该影响消除，预计凯傲对净利 润贡献至少增加约 20 亿，对整体传统主业形成明确支撑。 重卡整车出口市占率多数时间处于第二，出口业务盈利能力强于内销， 预计 2025 年重卡出口增长 10%-20%，至 2030 年增长至 40 万辆。变 速器业务定位"龙二"，出口增长背景下，相关整车体系的净利润与增 长具备保障。 预计 2026 年车用发动机销量总量与 2025 年持平略增，但出口占比提 升，结构大幅优化。外销重卡发动机市占率高于内销至少 10 个点，中 在可比公司 2025 ...

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 22 February 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Asia Equity Strategy From a 'rotation' to an 'allocation' mindset in China When we upgraded China to OW in our Asia allocation late last November (2026 O ...

应流股份 20260228 摘要 北美燃气发电占比高且持续提升，数据中心自建电源趋势推动燃机需求， 燃气轮机产业链整体受益，尤其在当前环节中，燃机作为主流发电方式， 确定性较强。 海外燃机主机厂排产紧张已延续至 2030 年，主机厂（西门子、GE）和 零部件公司（豪迈特）估值均处于高位，反映市场对其接单与盈利增长 的乐观预期，主机厂燃机业务估值在 25-30 倍区间，零部件公司估值约 40 倍（2029 年时点）。 国内燃机产业链投资逻辑分两阶段：一是海外主机厂排产改善带动国内 零部件增量，重点关注叶片、余热锅炉等；二是主机厂出海预期与产品 布局、签单进展，关注东方电气、航汽轮等。集成/成套业务亦是重要方 向，涉及杰瑞、科泰电源等。 AI 数据中心电力需求激增，燃气轮机因建设周期短、供电稳定成为优选 方案，推动海外燃机需求。替代方案如核电建设周期长且环保要求高， 燃机在可靠性和市场接受度上更具优势。 Q&A 国内燃机产业链的投资演绎路径分为哪些阶段，重点关注哪些公司方向？ 国内产业链的关注路径大致经历两阶段：第一阶段主要依据海外主机厂排产改 善，映射国内零部件环节的增量，重点包括叶片及其他终端关键环节，并延伸 ...

在"北美缺电"背景下，对美国电力供需与电价的关键验证信号是什么， 2027 年的判断依据是什么？ 缺电问题已同时在逻辑层面与电价等表征指标层面得到验证，趋势明确。电价 端，2025 年北美终端综合电价上涨约 5 个多点；在数据中心更集中的区域， 例如 PJM 电网，2025 年四季度实时交易电价上涨约 60%。电价上行已开始向 居民电费传导，尤其在数据中心建设密集地区更为突出。在此背景下，2027 年被判断为缺电矛盾进一步加剧的阶段。 重点关注变压器、储能与 AI 电源三条细分方向。预计未来 5 年美国在自 建电源趋势下，数据中心侧高压变压器需求负荷增速约 30%~40%，中 低压变约 15%~20%；储能需求负荷增速约 20~30%。 北美缺电外溢到基础设施与基建端，例如模块化数据中心等方向。海外 缺人则使得具备工程组织与交付能力的一方更为有利，而这是中国企业 相对擅长的方向。 SOFC 发电效率高、交付速度快、燃料选择灵活，适配北美快速补充电 力需求的场景。在天然气价格为 0.11 美元/度时，度电成本可降至 9 美 分，与燃气轮机电价水平较为接近，是当前具备落地应用条件的重要原 因。 怎么看待北美 AI ...

Summary of Conference Call Records on Commercial Vehicle Industry Industry Overview - The commercial vehicle industry is experiencing a recovery phase, particularly in the heavy-duty truck (重卡) segment, driven by the "old-for-new" policy which is expected to continue into 2026. [1][2][7] Key Points on Heavy-Duty Trucks - **Sales Growth**: In 2025, heavy-duty truck wholesale sales reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. Registration volume was 799,000 units, up 32.7%. [1][4] - **Export Performance**: Heavy-duty truck exports totaled 341,000 units in 2025, marking a 17.4% increase. Key growth regions include Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, with Nigeria showing significant growth. [1][5] - **Fuel Structure Changes**: Diesel truck demand is declining, while natural gas truck penetration is stabilizing. New energy heavy-duty truck sales reached 229,000 units, up 182%, with a penetration rate of 28.8%. [1][6] - **Market Dynamics**: The heavy-duty truck market is characterized by high concentration, with the top four companies maintaining a market share of approximately 90%. China National Heavy Duty Truck Group leads with a market share of 20%-30%. [5] Key Points on Buses - **Sales Trends**: The bus industry is entering a new cycle characterized by stable domestic demand and high export growth. In 2025, wholesale sales of large and medium buses reached 122,000 units, a 5% increase, while exports grew by 34.6% to 59,000 units. [1][2][3] - **New Energy Buses**: The export of new energy buses is rapidly increasing, with a projected growth of 34% in 2026. [3][12] - **Market Recovery**: The bus market is expected to see a dual resonance of export and domestic sales, with a forecasted growth of 20% in wholesale volume to 146,000 units in 2026. [12][13] Investment Recommendations - **Heavy-Duty Trucks**: Focus on leading companies with advantages in both export and new energy sectors, such as Weichai Power and China National Heavy Duty Truck Group. [2][18] - **Buses**: Look for companies with strong export capabilities and product advantages, such as Yutong Bus and King Long. [2][18] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include changes in commercial vehicle policy subsidies, uncertainties in global demand, and fluctuations in raw material prices affecting industry profits. [21] Additional Insights - The heavy-duty truck market is expected to benefit from the natural scrapping of older vehicles and supportive policies, which will enhance domestic demand. [7][17] - The bus market is projected to recover steadily, driven by policy support and increasing export opportunities, particularly in Europe and Latin America. [14][16] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections for the commercial vehicle industry, highlighting growth opportunities and potential risks.

高盛闭门会-首席闪辉前瞻 3 月会议要点，26 年四大投资 主题和近期资金面分析 20260228 摘要 2026 年中国 GDP 增速目标预计维持在 4.5%-5%区间，与市场 4.8% 的预测基本一致，表明经济增速边际放缓，但整体平稳，政府债券发行 规模预计与 2025 年接近，消费品以旧换新补贴规模边际缩减。 全国两会预计延续提升消费能力和增加特定服务供给的主线，可能包含 最低工资或基础养老金上调等福利提升措施，以"持续聚焦、渐进推 进"为特征，通过支持服务业供给端提升质量并扩大规模，以带动服务 消费。 2026 年两会适逢"十五五"规划开局，科技创新和消费的重要性进一 步提升，明确提出未来五年提高居民消费率，需重点跟踪行业政策或量 化目标，识别尚未被市场充分计价的政策支持方向。 民营经济政策基调预计保持支持性，监管取向将继续强调高质量发展， 核心在于培育优质企业、提升股东回报并引导长期投资氛围，市场更偏 好"慢牛"路径。 Q&A 下周全国两会最需要重点关注哪些宏观政策信号，尤其是增长目标与政府债券 发行额度可能如何设定？ 最关键的两个指标是 2026 年 GDP 增长目标与全国人大批准的政府债券发行总 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for distributed power sources in North America is increasing due to the mismatch between the expansion of traditional power grids and the rapid construction of data centers, creating opportunities for on-site power generation and backup power equipment [5][16] - The automotive sector is experiencing a shift towards high-end luxury passenger vehicles, with expectations of increased performance as product matrices expand [8] - The automotive parts industry is expected to see an upward trend in profitability due to reduced competition and expansion in downstream markets [8] Summary by Sections 1. Data Center Distributed Power Demand - The power supply gap in North America is widening, leading to increased demand for distributed power sources [16] - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for data centers, with a total expected expenditure of approximately $650 billion (about 4.58 trillion RMB) in 2026 [16][17] - The total installed capacity of data centers in the U.S. is projected to grow from about 17 GW in 2025 to approximately 50 GW by 2030 [16] 2. Industry News Highlights - XPeng Motors announced that Volkswagen will be the first customer for its second-generation VLA model [6] - Huawei's autonomous driving system recorded over 470 million kilometers during the Spring Festival, equivalent to 190,000 round trips between Beijing and Shanghai [6] - NIO's chip subsidiary completed its first round of financing, raising over 2.2 billion RMB [6] 3. Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week saw the CSI 300 index increase by 1.08%, while the automotive sector rose by 0.59%, ranking 23rd among A-share industries [7][43] - The passenger vehicle index decreased by 1.41%, with GAC Group and NIO leading the gains [7][46] - The commercial vehicle index increased by 1.41%, with Hailun Zhe and Weichai Power leading the gains [7][50] 4. Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the demand for domestic high-end luxury vehicles is exceeding expectations, with recommended stocks including JAC Motors and Seres, while benefiting stocks include Geely [8] - In the parts sector, companies like Desay SV and Zhejiang Xiantong are recommended due to expected profitability improvements [8]

行业研究 | 证券分析师：张程航 | 证券分析师：夏凉 | 证券分析师：李昊岚 | 联系人：张睿希 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话：021-20572543 | 电话：021-20572532 | 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360524010003 | | | 执业编号：S0360519070003 | 执业编号：S0360522030001 | | | 汽车板块依然受零售较弱、材料涨价影响。我们预计 3 月零售将逐步回暖：影响 1-2 月 零售核心因素 3 个，1）去年递延到今年的消费者有价格观望，2）3 月新车上市带来的 观望，3）补贴程序开启节奏，我们预计 3 月随存量消费者减少、新车上市、补贴通道打 开都将逐步改善。材料涨价方面，我们测算 PHEV 碳酸锂成本同比涨约 1-2k，BEV 2- 4k，经济型存储成本同比涨几百元、高端型 1-3k。市场对材料涨价影响的评估相对 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车板块依然受零售较弱、材料涨价影响。我们预计 3 月零售将逐步回暖：影响 1-2 月 零售核心因素 3 个，1）去年递延到今年的消费者有价格观望，2）3 月新车上市带来的 观望，3）补贴程序开启节奏，我们预计 3 月随存量消费者减少、新车上市、补贴通道打 开都将逐步改善。材料涨价方面，我们测算 PHEV 碳酸锂成本同比涨约 1-2k，BEV 2- 4k，经济型存储成本同比涨几百元、高端型 1-3k。市场对材料涨价影响的评估相对线性、 担忧较多，但车企往往会通过一些方式去缓解，此外也要注意到不同类别的车影响不同， 如油车、经济型影响相对偏小：1）供应链降本/分摊、内部降本；2）减配；3）涨价：这 个在今年相对重要，因为续驶里程普遍需要提升，所以 3 月的新车、年改款如何重新定 价（涵盖材料涨价、用量提升），能否让消费者接受合理的价格上涨，会比较关键；4） 低中高配销售结构引导调整。此外，近期 AIDC 和缺电带动潍柴等柴发链大幅上行，成 为汽车板块的新增亮点，我们预计趋势还将持续。 投资建议： 一、数据跟踪 2 月上旬行业折扣率环比下降（油车为主）：折扣率 9.3%，同比+0 ...

从投资策略上看，预计部分强α汽零公司有望抵御行业风险，实现营收及盈利增长；数 据中心液冷及柴发/燃气轮机产业链、能确定进入特斯拉、Figure、智元、宇树等机器人 配套产业链的汽零及高级别自动驾驶产业链将持续迎来催化。建议持续关注燃气发电机/ 柴发产业链、人形机器人链、液冷产业链、出海链、智驾产业链公司。 汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 北美电力紧张逻辑持续验证，继续关注燃 气发电机及液冷产业链公司 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 燃气发电机相关标的：银轮股份、潍柴动力；液冷相关标的：英维克、银轮股份、拓普 集团、飞龙股份、川环科技等；机器人相关标的：新泉股份、拓普集团、银轮股份、岱 美股份、三花智控、浙江荣泰、旭升集团、嵘泰股份、斯菱智驱、爱柯迪、精锻科技、 博俊科技、沪光股份等；智驾相关标的：经纬恒润、伯特利、德赛西威等；整车：比亚 迪、上汽集团、江淮汽车、赛力斯等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S086051206 ...