湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度报告 2025 年第三季度报告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 重要内容提示： 1.董事会、高级管理人员保证季度报告的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并承担个别和 连带的法律责任。 2.公司负责人、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人(会计主管人员)声明：保证季度报告中财务信息的真实、准确、完 整。 3.第三季度财务会计报告是否经过审计 证券代码：000932 证券简称：华菱钢铁 公告编号：2025-69 湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司 □是 否 1 湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度报告 一、主要财务数据 （一） 主要会计数据和财务指标 公司是否需追溯调整或重述以前年度会计数据 □是 否 | | 本报告期 | 本报告期比上年同 | 年初至报告期末 | 年初至报告期末比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 期增减 | | 上年同期增减 | | 营业收入（元） | 31,803,720,586.10 | -10.59% | 94,5 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The new "Steel Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation Measures" is tightening capacity replacement policies, which is expected to promote supply-side reduction and stabilize the industry's fundamentals [8] - The combination of administrative measures and industry self-discipline is likely to lead to a supply-side transformation in the near future, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.64% in crude steel production as of September 2025 [8] - The ongoing reduction in supply is expected to stabilize mid-term profitability and enhance dividend capacity for companies in the steel sector, indicating a shift towards high-quality and high-return development [8] Summary by Sections Steel Sector Investment Suggestions - Recommended stocks include: - Nanjing Steel (600282, Buy) for its continuous product structure optimization and stable profitability - CITIC Special Steel (000708, Buy) for its stable profitability and high dividends - Shandong Steel (600022, Buy) for its significant profit improvement driven by cost reduction and operational synergy - Other stocks mentioned: Hualing Steel (000932, Not Rated), Sansteel Minguang (002110, Not Rated) [3] Policy Changes and Industry Dynamics - The revised capacity replacement policy requires a replacement ratio of no less than 1.5:1 for all steel and iron production capacities, which is stricter than previous regulations [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced multiple measures to promote supply-side reduction, including precise control of production capacity and output [8]

Market Performance - The steel sector saw an increase of 1.78% on October 27, with Xinxing Casting leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13489.4, up 1.51% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Xinxing Casting (000778) closed at 4.32, up 6.93% with a trading volume of 4.0121 million shares and a transaction value of 1.76 billion [1] - Anyang Iron & Steel (600569) closed at 2.44, up 5.63%, with a trading volume of 1.571 million shares and a transaction value of 387 million [1] - Other notable performers include Sangang Min Guang (002110) up 3.98%, Baosteel (600019) up 1.82%, and Hualing Steel (000932) up 2.96% [1] Capital Flow - The steel sector experienced a net inflow of 680 million in main funds, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 355 million [2] - The main funds' net inflow for Xinxing Casting was 2.33 billion, representing 13.23% of its total trading volume [3] - Anyang Iron & Steel had a main fund net inflow of 84.75 million, accounting for 21.90% of its trading volume [3]

Market Overview - As of October 27, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.18%, closing at 3996.9445 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.51%, closing at 13489.403 points [1]. Top Gainers in Hunan Stocks - *ST Jingfeng opened at 7.690 and closed at 7.690, with a daily increase of 5.05%, maintaining the same price throughout the day, with a trading volume of 24,128 lots [2]. - Tianqiao Crane opened at 4.210 and closed at 4.340, rising by 4.08%, with a daily high of 4.350 and a low of 4.150, and a trading volume of 1,184,114 lots [2]. - Aoshikang opened at 39.620 and closed at 40.920, up by 3.52%, reaching a high of 41.240 and a low of 39.600, with a trading volume of 62,736 lots [2]. - Yanjinpuzi opened at 69.010 and closed at 70.350, increasing by 3.30%, with a daily high of 71.120 and a low of 68.500, and a trading volume of 36,492 lots [2]. - Hualing Steel opened at 5.740 and closed at 5.910, up by 2.96%, with a high of 5.970 and a low of 5.740, and a trading volume of 1,103,156 lots [2]. Top Losers in Hunan Stocks - Hengli Tui opened at 0.160 and closed at 0.150, experiencing a decline of 11.76%, with a daily high of 0.170 and a low of 0.150, and a trading volume of 611,606 lots [3]. - *ST Gaosi opened at 8.300 and closed at 8.350, down by 2.45%, with a high of 8.450 and a low of 8.130, and a trading volume of 58,408 lots [3]. - Changlan Technology opened at 17.700 and closed at 17.410, decreasing by 1.97%, with a high of 17.780 and a low of 17.200, and a trading volume of 45,737 lots [3]. - Hansen Pharmaceutical opened at 6.620 and closed at 6.510, down by 1.06%, with a high of 6.620 and a low of 6.480, and a trading volume of 94,306 lots [3]. - Hunan Investment opened at 5.730 and closed at 5.630, decreasing by 1.05%, with a high of 5.740 and a low of 5.580, and a trading volume of 171,054 lots [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with industrial value-added increasing by 6.2% [1][15] - The US core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][17] - Copper prices are experiencing strong performance, nearing $11,000 per ton due to supply concerns and optimistic trade outlooks [3][20] - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association emphasizes the need to prevent "involution" and ensure supply chain security [4][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the nonferrous metals sector increased by 1.13%, underperforming the index [9] Key Focus Areas & Metal Prices - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases, particularly copper, which is projected to continue rising due to supply disruptions [22] - LME copper price was $10,947 per ton, up 3.21% week-on-week, while SHFE copper price was 87,720 yuan per ton, up 3.95% [22][28] Strategic Metals - New policies on rare earth exports are expected to benefit the heavy rare earth sector in the short term [46] Company Recommendations - For industrial metals, companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining are recommended for investment [53] - In the strategic metals sector, companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Xiamen Tungsten are highlighted for potential growth [54]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [8] Core Insights - The report discusses the revisions made to the "Steel Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation Measures" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, comparing the 2021 version with the 2025 draft [2][4][5] - The demand for steel continues to improve, with a slight year-on-year decrease in apparent consumption of major steel products by 1.18% and a month-on-month increase of 2.57% [4] - The average daily pig iron output of sample steel enterprises has decreased slightly to 2.399 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.15% and a month-on-month increase of 1.29% in total steel production [4][5] - Total steel inventory has decreased by 1.75% week-on-week, while year-on-year it has increased by 22.16% [5] Summary by Sections Capacity Replacement Measures - The 2025 draft maintains the definition of "compliant capacity" as in 2021, but introduces stricter regulations on capacity replacement, particularly regarding "zombie capacity" [12] - New provisions allow for capacity replacement between different enterprises for two years after the implementation of the 2025 measures, after which such exchanges will be prohibited [12] - The replacement ratio for iron and steel capacity in 2025 is set at no less than 1.5:1 across provinces, expanding the scope compared to the 2021 measures [12] Market Dynamics - The report highlights the broad demand for underground pipeline networks, with an expected investment exceeding 5 trillion yuan, benefiting pipe-related companies [4] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to boost market expectations, with increased construction intensity towards the end of the year likely to enhance demand for building materials [4] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four main investment lines: 1. Companies benefiting from the release of new capacities in iron ore and coke, such as Nanjing Steel and Baosteel [29] 2. Companies with low market capitalization relative to their earnings, such as New Steel and Fangda Special Steel [29] 3. Mergers and acquisitions under the state-owned enterprise reform, which may enhance asset quality and valuation [31] 4. High-quality processing leaders and resource companies, particularly in the context of macroeconomic recovery expectations [31]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Traditional Industries in China**: The cyclical nature of traditional industries is weakening, with a shift in fixed asset investment towards asset management. This change is driven by a decline in risk-free returns, which is fostering the development of capital markets [1][5][6]. - **Economic Policy Shift**: The 20th Central Committee emphasized economic construction, marking a transition to a more proactive development strategy, which is beneficial for technology and consumer sectors [1][7]. - **Market Outlook**: The Chinese market is expected to stabilize above 4,000 points by 2025, with no second bottom anticipated. Adjustments in the market are seen as buying opportunities [1][3][10]. Key Sectors and Companies - **Metals Sector**: Industrial metals are expected to benefit from improved risk appetite due to US-China trade negotiations. The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may lead to increased liquidity, positively impacting both precious and industrial metal prices [1][12]. - **Chemical Industry**: Supply-side pressures are expected to ease, with leading companies in coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng), spandex (e.g., Huafeng Chemical), and refrigerants showing growth potential [1][16][19]. - **Logistics Sector**: The express delivery industry is experiencing a price increase trend, with major companies like Shentong and YTO showing strong growth. The focus is on companies with robust performance and reasonable valuations [4][21][22]. - **Coal Market**: The coal market is recovering due to extreme weather and early heating season demands, with prices expected to exceed 800 RMB/ton by 2026 [4][27][28]. - **Steel Industry**: The steel sector is in a bottom reversal phase, with demand and supply factors supporting price stability. Leading companies like Baosteel and Hualing are recommended for investment [4][29][30]. Investment Opportunities - **Emerging Technologies**: New technologies are highlighted as a primary investment focus, with cyclical finance seen as a dark horse. The investment landscape is expected to diversify but remain structured [1][11][10]. - **New Materials**: Investment opportunities in new materials include lubricating oil additives and high-frequency resins, with companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Lianlong showing promise [1][20]. - **Public Utilities**: The public utility sector is projected to experience significant valuation recovery, particularly in power generation, with expectations of doubling PE ratios [40][41]. Additional Insights - **US-China Trade Relations**: China's systematic and mature response to trade challenges has increased market confidence and risk appetite, suggesting that recent price declines present buying opportunities rather than sell signals [8][9]. - **Real Estate Sector**: The relationship between high-quality real estate development and economic contribution is emphasized, with a need for stable investment and reasonable price expectations to achieve high-quality growth [35]. - **Future Trends**: The focus on innovation, green low-carbon initiatives, and structural upgrades in the petrochemical industry is expected to drive growth in the coming years [26]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of various industries in China.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Xining Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, indicating strong potential for price appreciation in the coming months [8]. Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing fluctuations, with black metals remaining in a low-level oscillation while precious metals have seen a significant pullback. The report suggests that these short-term fluctuations do not indicate a change in the overall cyclical trend [2]. - China's GDP for the first three quarters of the year reached 101.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%. The report anticipates that the overall economic growth target for the year will be met [2]. - The report highlights the importance of supply fluctuations in steel profitability, noting discrepancies in steel production data since May, which may be linked to increased production restrictions [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in the steel industry, particularly for companies that are currently undervalued and have strong safety margins [2]. Supply Analysis - The average daily pig iron production has slightly decreased to 239.9 million tons, with a small decline in capacity utilization among steel mills [11][17]. - The total inventory of steel has decreased, with a week-on-week decline of 1.7%, indicating a tightening supply situation [23][24]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of steel has shown a month-on-month increase, with total apparent consumption reaching 892.7 million tons, up 2.0% from the previous week [47]. - The demand for rebar has increased, with weekly average transactions rising to 10.1 million tons, reflecting a recovery in construction activity [36][37]. Price and Profitability - The report notes a slight increase in steel prices, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index rising by 0.2% week-on-week. The report anticipates continued improvement in the industry fundamentals, which may support stronger steel prices [69]. - Current profit margins for long-process steel production remain negative, with costs for rebar and hot-rolled coils at 3,458 yuan/ton and 3,684 yuan/ton, respectively [70][71]. Key Companies to Watch - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and Xining Steel, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the steel market and favorable economic conditions [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][3][3]. Core Views - The revision of the capacity replacement plan by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the steel industry marginally. The new draft includes stricter compliance requirements for capacity replacement, which may lead to a more regulated market [3][3]. - The report notes a decrease in steel profits, with specific margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel declining by 7, 17, and 23 yuan per ton, respectively, while electric arc furnace steel margins increased by 1 yuan per ton [1][1][1]. - Steel production increased to 8.65 million tons, with a notable rise in rebar production, while total inventory decreased by 260,100 tons, indicating a tightening market [2][2][2]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai was 3,190 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan from the previous week. Hot-rolled steel increased by 20 yuan to 3,300 yuan per ton, while cold-rolled steel rose by 10 yuan to 3,780 yuan per ton [1][12][13]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products reached 8.65 million tons, an increase of 83,700 tons week-on-week. The total inventory of these products decreased by 260,100 tons to 1,098.5 million tons [2][2][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the steel sector, particularly those that are expected to benefit from the revised capacity replacement regulations. Specific companies highlighted include Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others across various segments [3][3][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the capacity replacement method is expected to accelerate the exit of backward production capacity, with a replacement ratio of no less than 1.5:1 for iron and steel production capacity [3] - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions and overall profit decline, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies supporting growth in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing [3] - The steel industry is anticipated to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, benefiting from high-end steel products and companies with strong cost control and scale effects [3] Supply Situation - As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 89.9%, down 0.39 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 1.05 tons week-on-week but an increase of 5.54 tons year-on-year [25] - The total production of five major steel products is 7.571 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons week-on-week [25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.927 million tons as of October 24, an increase of 173,200 tons week-on-week [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 101,000 tons, up 390 tons week-on-week [35] Inventory Situation - The social inventory of five major steel products is 10.997 million tons, a decrease of 261,400 tons week-on-week [43] - The factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.552 million tons, a decrease of 12,700 tons week-on-week [43] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,421.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.25 yuan/ton week-on-week [49] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -60 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [57] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,383 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [57] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 781 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [73] - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [73] Company Valuation - Key listed companies in the steel sector are showing potential for valuation recovery, particularly those with high gross margins and strong cost control [3]