Core Viewpoint - Koshi Co., Ltd. (科思股份) is facing significant challenges in its business performance, particularly in its sunscreen product segment, leading to a substantial decline in projected profits for 2025 [1][2] Financial Performance - For 2025, the company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders between 90 million to 120 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 78.67% to 84% [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.116 billion yuan, down 39.93% year-on-year, with a net profit of approximately 77.93 million yuan, a decrease of 84.84% [2] - The gross margin fell from 48.8% in 2023 to 29.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, while the net margin dropped from 30.6% to 6.6% in the same period [2] Business Segment Insights - The core product line of the company includes "active ingredients and raw materials for cosmetics," with sunscreen agents being the primary focus, accounting for over 80% of total revenue [2] - Revenue from this segment decreased from 2.07 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.904 billion yuan in 2024, and more than 54% in the first half of 2025 [2] Market Dynamics - The global sunscreen market is experiencing a slowdown, with the market size reaching 15.287 billion USD in 2023 and an average annual growth rate of approximately 7.6% from 2021 to 2023, which is expected to decline to 4.3% from 2023 to 2028 [5] - Increased competition in the sunscreen market has led to a general decline in product prices, impacting profit margins [5] Competitive Landscape - The company is a major manufacturer of sunscreen agents, holding over 20% market share in 2023, with key clients including global giants like L'Oréal, Procter & Gamble, and Bayer [3] - The company’s overseas business accounted for 89.94% of its revenue in 2023, although this proportion decreased to 86.97% in 2024, with a significant drop in overseas revenue in the first half of 2025 [3][4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is accelerating the construction of a 10,000-ton annual production project for sunscreen products in Malaysia to enhance its supply response capabilities in the European and Southeast Asian markets [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the real estate chain chemical products sector [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in the supply-demand structure of real estate chain chemical products is expected to drive a long-term upward trend. It recommends specific products such as MDI, titanium dioxide, PVC, soda ash, organic silicon, and refrigerants [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the concept of "high-quality development" in real estate, indicating that the supply-demand dynamics for chemical products related to real estate are set to improve, which will support a long-term upward trend in the market [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights key companies to invest in, including: - MDI leader Wanhua Chemical - Titanium dioxide leader Longbai Group - Soda ash leader Boyuan Chemical - Organic silicon leader Hesheng Silicon - Refrigerant leader Juhua Co. - PVC leader Zhongtai Chemical and Xinjiang Tianye [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that while China's housing demand has shifted from aggressive growth, there is still medium-term support for total demand, projected to stabilize at 700-800 million square meters during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans. Factors such as demand improvement, urban renewal, and urbanization are expected to stabilize the overall transaction scale in the industry [3]. Product Applications - The report details the applications of various chemical products in the real estate sector: - MDI is used in environmentally friendly board production and insulation materials for refrigerators - Titanium dioxide is a key white pigment in coatings - PVC is primarily used in the real estate sector, directly influenced by new housing starts and construction progress - Soda ash is essential for producing flat glass and glass products, benefiting from urban renewal projects - Organic silicon adhesives are used in construction for sealing and bonding [3]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The report indicates that the demand side is expected to stabilize due to policy support and the stabilization of real estate companies, while the supply side is seeing an end to expansion in many sectors. This combination is anticipated to improve the supply structure and alleviate competitive pressures [3].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.01% [1] - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a rapid increase, with significant gains from the "three major oil companies," which boosted the chemical industry ETF E Fund (516570) by 1.92% [1] - Brent crude oil prices rose to $64.92 per barrel, up 5.85% from the beginning of the month [3] Group 2 - The chemical sector's strength is not solely attributed to oil price fluctuations; 2024 may be an optimal time for investors to position themselves in this sector [4] - The E Fund chemical industry ETF has surged over 24% in the last 25 trading days, reaching a new high since 2022, with net inflows exceeding 127 million yuan in the past 20 trading days [5] - The chemical industry has undergone a prolonged capacity digestion period over the past three years, with a significant supply pressure expected to ease by 2025 [8] Group 3 - The inventory cycle is shifting from "passive destocking" to "active restocking," with inventory levels in most segments at historical lows since Q3 2025 [11] - The central government's policy changes aim to prevent "involution-style" competition, establishing new operational principles for the industry [14] - The chemical industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to return-oriented strategies, which is expected to elevate the industry's profit margins [14] Group 4 - The phosphate and fluorine chemical sectors are experiencing a revaluation from "cyclical" to "resource" products, driven by the scarcity of phosphate rock and increasing demand from the lithium iron phosphate battery market [15][17] - The fluorochemical sector is witnessing a shift due to the implementation of third-generation refrigerant quotas, leading to a recovery from previous losses [19] Group 5 - The chemical sector is poised for valuation recovery, with the chemical industry ETF E Fund (516570) currently showing a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.09 and a dividend yield of 2.81% [20] - The overall net profit of the petrochemical industry index is expected to grow by 8.78% in 2026, indicating a stabilization in profitability [22] - The E Fund ETF offers a cost-effective investment option with a low fee structure of 0.2% per year, making it attractive for long-term investors [27] Group 6 - The chemical industry is entering a significant turning point, supported by macroeconomic recovery, stable oil prices, and supply-side reforms [27] - Each segment within the chemical industry is experiencing its unique narrative of "supply-demand rebalancing" and "value re-evaluation," indicating a promising outlook for the sector [27]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a significant turnaround driven by supply-side reforms, demand recovery, and the emergence of new productive forces, indicating a favorable investment environment for 2026 [31]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw collective gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.01% [1]. - The oil and petrochemical sector experienced a rapid increase, with the "three major oil companies" showing significant gains, which in turn boosted the chemical industry ETF E Fund (516570) by 1.92% [1]. Group 2: Oil Price and Demand Forecast - As of January 22, the Brent crude oil benchmark price was $64.92 per barrel, up 5.85% from the beginning of the month [3]. - The International Energy Agency's report predicts that global oil demand will grow by an average of 930,000 barrels per day by 2026, exceeding previous forecasts [3]. Group 3: Chemical Sector Dynamics - The chemical sector has seen a net inflow of funds, with the E Fund ETF rising over 24% in the last 25 trading days, reaching a new high since 2022 [5]. - The industry has transitioned from a prolonged capacity digestion phase, with capital expenditure peaks established, signaling the end of a multi-year expansion cycle [8]. Group 4: Inventory and Consumption Trends - The inventory cycle is shifting from "passive destocking" to "active restocking," with inventory levels in many segments at historical lows due to recovering downstream consumption [11]. - Any minor demand fluctuations could lead to significant price volatility as the industry moves away from high inventory pressures [11]. Group 5: Policy Influence - The central government's policy shift aims to prevent "involutionary" competition, establishing new operational principles for the industry [14]. - The introduction of the "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" emphasizes strict control over new capacity and scientific regulation to prevent oversupply [14]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector's valuation recovery is supported by a combination of low valuations and an anticipated earnings rebound, with the chemical industry ETF currently having a PE ratio of 16.09 and a dividend yield of 2.81% [22]. - The overall net profit of the petrochemical industry index is expected to grow by 8.78% in 2026, indicating a stabilization in profitability [24]. Group 7: ETF Advantages - The E Fund chemical industry ETF (516570) offers a cost-effective investment option with a low fee structure of 0.2% per year, significantly lower than similar products [29]. - The ETF's portfolio includes high-growth material leaders and traditional refining giants, providing a balanced strategy to capture both beta and alpha returns [27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a positive trend in the chemical industry, particularly in the petrochemical sector, with significant stock price increases and strong fund inflows into related ETFs [1][2]. - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index has seen a rise of 1.88%, with key stocks such as China Petroleum and China Petrochemical increasing by 1.6% and 4.4% respectively, indicating strong market performance [1]. - The chemical industry ETF managed by E Fund has attracted over 64 million in net inflows over the past four days and nearly 200 million in the last 60 days, reflecting investor confidence [1]. Group 2 - The International Energy Agency's report predicts a daily increase in global oil demand of 930,000 barrels by 2026, which is higher than previous forecasts, suggesting a robust outlook for the energy sector [1]. - The exit of overseas production capacity, particularly in Europe, is accelerating, with approximately 4.5 million tons per year of ethylene capacity being shut down since 2024, positioning China as a key production hub [1]. - The PVC production capacity in Europe is expected to decline significantly by 2025 due to rising energy costs and increased market competition, which may enhance China's export volume and market share in PVC [2].

Group 1 - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index (H11057) rose by 1.88%, marking a four-day winning streak, with significant gains from major stocks such as China Petroleum up 1.5% and China Petrochemical up 4.19% [1] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570), which tracks the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, has seen a net inflow of over 64 million in the last four days and nearly 200 million in the past 60 days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for 249 chemical products starting April 1, prompting overseas customers to place concentrated orders in the first quarter, benefiting the chemical sector [3] Group 2 - Energy and chemical futures experienced a broad increase, with butadiene rubber and ethylene glycol both rising over 4%, while pure benzene and asphalt increased by more than 2% [3] - According to GF Securities, the chemical industry is a typical cyclical sector that usually follows a five-year cycle, and the current phase is seen as a "dawn" period for the industry, supported by factors such as negative capital expenditure growth and improved demand expectations [3] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF offers a low-cost investment opportunity in traditional energy sectors, with a combined management and custody fee of only 0.2% per year [4]

格隆汇1月22日｜昨日，石化ETF(159731)尾盘集合竞价阶段，突然拉升涨停，收报1.1元，今日开盘回 撤昨日溢价，盘中仍获得资金净申购，截至发稿，该ETF获资金净申购5200万份。 业内从挂单价猜测，涨停可能是由于"乌龙指"，即投资者输错了买卖价格，把1.01元错输成1.10元，导 致了尾盘的异动涨停。 事实上，近期资金持续流入石化ETF(159731)，从1月7日起已经连续11个交易日获资金净申购，合计净 流入4.14亿元，居同标的产品第一。 催化剂上： ②近期化工类企业2025年业绩预告亮眼，钾肥、氟化工、农药、锂盐等细分赛道龙头业绩企业盈利修 复，传递出景气度回升信号。 业内认为，当前化工行业正处于长达4年的下行周期底部，资本开支自2023年四季度以来已连续7个季度 负增长，2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，供给侧坚持去产能和"反内卷"，同时坚持扩大内需，行业周期 有望加速反转。 相关产品： "基础化工+石油石化"双轮驱动：石化ETF(159731)，紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，规模居同标的第一， 权重股包括万华化学（全球 MDI龙头）、中国石油（国内油气龙头）、中国石化（国内炼化龙头）、 盐湖股份 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index (H11057) has risen by 1.86% as of January 22, 2026, with the E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) increasing by 1.74%, marking a four-day consecutive rise [1] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) has seen continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 31.07 million, totaling 64.80 million [1] - Guojin Securities indicates that the domestic expansion cycle of the PVC industry is nearing its end, with an expected improvement in the supply-demand structure [1] Group 2 - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) has a management and custody fee rate of 0.15% + 0.05% per year, significantly lower than similar ETF products in the petrochemical sector, which helps reduce costs for investors [2] - The ETF is designed to package leading companies in the petrochemical and basic chemical industries, tracking an index that reflects a "dumbbell strategy" within the petrochemical sector [1]

平安证券指出，石油石化行业—2023年以来，基本面宽松预期下，油价高位回落，而石油石化指数持续 走高，一方面我国油气资源具有一定稀缺性，头部开采企业在国内持续推进增产上储，同时积极在海外 投资油气项目，优质资源禀赋的价值凸显。另一方面石化企业加深炼化一体化布局，降本增效成果较 好，中国石油、恒力石化等企业业绩表现出强韧性，随着石化品供给格局优化、价格从底部渐进上行， 企业估值有望进一步提升。 基础化工行业—2025年以来，国补促内需、制造业高端化，反内卷刺激产业优化供给格局，化工业从被 动去库渐往主动补库过渡，行业估值持续回升，其中，受益于反内卷和供给端格局优化的化工细分领域 均表现出不错的行情走势，2026年，平安证券认为，反内卷和供给格局好转的主线仍有机会。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570，场外联接A/C: 020104/020105）一键打包三桶油、万华化学等石油石 化、基础化工产业龙头，跟踪的中证石化产业指数指数构成接近于石化化工板块中哑铃策略标的，同时 涵盖高股息+高成长成份券，2023年以来收益表现在可比化工行业指数中保持领先。 截至2026年1月22日 14:21，中证石化产业指数(H110 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights an improvement in global crude oil demand forecasts, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) raising its demand growth expectation for this year from 860,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, reflecting resilience in energy demand amid global economic recovery [1] - The petrochemical sector's capital expenditure is nearing its end, with ongoing construction projects declining year-on-year for three consecutive quarters, alongside the elimination of outdated facilities and the deepening of "anti-involution" policies, leading to a significant improvement in the supply side [1] - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index has seen a 2.0% increase, with key stocks such as Hebang Biotechnology rising over 6%, and major players like Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Sinopec, and CNOOC rising over 4% [1] Group 2 - The index includes major companies in the oil and petrochemical sectors, such as the "three oil giants" and Wanhua Chemical, which are expected to benefit from rising product price expectations due to the effectiveness of anti-involution policies [1] - The ETF managed by E Fund (516570) offers a low management fee rate of 0.15% per year, providing investors with a cost-effective way to invest in the favorable supply and demand dynamics of the petrochemical industry [1]