1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation range of 100,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks. The supply is relatively stable or slightly increasing, the demand is significantly weakened due to the Spring Festival holiday, and the inventory is continuously accumulating [3][51][53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 12, 2026, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to 102,770 yuan/ton, a 0.75% increase from the previous day. The basis weakened overall, with the premium copper's discount deepening to - 45 yuan/ton, the flat - water copper maintaining a - 70 yuan/ton discount, and the wet - process copper's discount slightly narrowing to - 120 yuan/ton. The LME(0 - 3) discount remained at - 76.01 US dollars/ton [1][36]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position volume slightly increased, with the LME copper position increasing by 893 lots to 326,184 lots on February 11, 2026. The trading volume significantly shrank as the Spring Festival holiday approached, and the market participation decreased [1]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply is relatively stable but has potential disturbances. South America may become a new center for the critical mineral supply chain, and CopperTech Metal Company is applying new technologies to improve the exploration efficiency of the Konkola mine. However, the termination of the merger between Rio Tinto and Glencore may affect global copper resource competition. The domestic anode copper operating rate dropped by 27.90 percentage points to 38.98% due to the Spring Festival holiday, and smelting activities slowed down [2]. - **Demand Side**: The demand significantly weakened, mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday. New orders in the downstream power, construction, and automotive fields cooled down, the brass rod operating rate decreased by 6.09 percentage points to 40.31%, and the enameled wire operating rate dropped by 10.27 percentage points to 73.53%. The markets in Shandong and North China entered the holiday state, logistics was suspended, and the procurement demand was weak, with the recycled copper rod quotation discount widening to 1,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The inventory continued to accumulate, reflecting a loose supply - demand situation. The LME inventory increased to 187,179 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased to 196,650 tons. There was a significant increase in inventory in Shanghai due to the arrival of goods during the opening of the import window and the weakening demand [2]. Price Trend Judgment - The copper price is expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation in the next one to two weeks. The supply - side changes show that short - term smelting activities slow down due to the Spring Festival, but inventory accumulation and new technology applications may relieve the tightness. The demand - side changes indicate that the downstream demand remains weak during the holiday, and it will take time for post - holiday resumption of work, resulting in a lag in demand recovery. From the perspective of macro sentiment, supply - chain adjustments provide medium - to - long - term support, but the market sentiment is cautious during the holiday [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Sell put options [9] 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand continues to decline, and the price of precious metals remains volatile. The price of copper may range from RMB 97,800/ton to RMB 106,600/ton. It is not recommended to hold heavy positions during the Spring Festival holiday [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On February 12, 2026, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at RMB 103,620/ton and closed at RMB 102,330/ton, a 0.15% decrease from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at RMB 102,030/ton and closed at RMB 100,030/ton, a 2.58% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of RMB 100 - RMB 20/ton to the 2602 contract, with an average discount of RMB 60/ton, a RMB 10/ton decrease from the previous day. The spot price ranged from RMB 101,840 - RMB 102,240/ton. The 2602 contract showed a W-shaped oscillation and closed at RMB 101,950/ton. With the Spring Festival approaching, the market was quiet, and the supply - demand imbalance was expected to widen the spot discount [2]. Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet him. The Sino - US trade "cease - fire" is expected to be extended. Due to investors' concerns about AI eroding corporate profits, the US stock market tumbled, causing copper prices to decline [3]. Mining End - In 2025, Congo (Kinshasa)'s copper exports increased from 3.1 million tons to 3.4 million tons, a 9.7% year - on - year increase, solidifying its status as the world's second - largest copper producer. Chinese - funded enterprises play a major role in Congo's copper production [4]. Smelting and Import - In January, the proportion of Chinese - produced copper in LME's available inventory decreased due to inflows from other countries. The absolute inventory of Chinese - produced copper in LME warehouses increased from 87,475 tons in December to 95,150 tons at the end of January [5]. Consumption - As the Spring Festival nears, spot trading is light. The output and capacity utilization rate of copper rods in January 2026 decreased compared to December. Different regions showed different trends in production volume [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 3,000 tons to 196,650 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 8,282 tons to 187,179 tons. On February 12, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 353,600 tons, a change of 22,300 tons from the previous week [7][8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the non-ferrous metals industry, focusing on lithium, rare earths, copper, aluminum, and strategic metals [2][3][4][8][9]. Core Insights and Arguments Lithium Market - The lithium market shows strong fundamentals, with short-term supply weakness and strong demand. Inventory levels are low, with a significant price tolerance for lithium at 200,000 CNY/ton, yielding an IRR of over 8% [2][5]. - The impact of regulatory changes in Yichun and strict requirements for tailings storage may delay the resumption of production [2][5]. - Demand for lithium remains robust, with production in March expected to increase by 23% month-on-month and over 50% year-on-year [5]. Rare Earths - The rare earth sector demonstrates resilience, with prices continuing to rise, particularly in Wuxi where prices exceed 900,000 CNY. The market has not fully reflected the improvements in the fundamentals of rare earth prices [2][8]. - Supply tightness is expected to continue, with the overall price center projected to reach 800,000 CNY or higher in 2026 [8]. Copper Market - The outlook for the copper sector is optimistic, supported by macroeconomic trends and structural demand increases from AI data centers and strategic reserves [4][15]. - Supply remains rigid, with several companies lowering their production guidance for 2026 due to various constraints, leading to a projected supply gap of over 650,000 tons [16][17]. Aluminum Sector - The aluminum supply is expected to increase by approximately 70,000 tons this year, with global demand growth projected at 2.5% [21]. - The cost of alumina is anticipated to decrease, enhancing the profitability of Chinese electrolytic aluminum enterprises [24]. Strategic Metals - Investment in strategic metals is recommended due to their industrial applications and low cost ratios, with potential candidates including tungsten, oil, and antimony [10][11][12]. - The strategic metal sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions and military applications, making it a compelling investment opportunity [9][10]. Additional Important Insights - The gold market is viewed as undergoing a technical correction, with expectations of a narrative consolidation period ahead [9]. - The copper market is influenced by China's actions to enhance its copper resource reserve system, which may increase demand and valuation [19]. - Companies to watch include major players in the non-ferrous metals sector such as Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and others that are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [20][30]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the non-ferrous metals industry.

经济观察网世纪铝业(CENX.OQ)在2026年2月12日股价显著下跌，收盘报50.37美元，单日跌幅达 5.74%。当日开盘价为53.63美元，最高价触及54.00美元，最低价下探49.85美元，振幅为7.77%。成交额 约为2912万美元，换手率0.60%，量比为0.72。从市场环境看，当日铝板块整体下跌2.07%，美股三大指 数也集体收跌。 股价异动原因 合作项目引发短期担忧：2月11日，世纪铝业与阿联酋环球铝业(EGA)正式宣布合作，计划投资超50亿 美元在美国俄克拉荷马州建设年产75万吨的原铝工厂。尽管长期可能受益于美国关税政策，但市场短期 担忧巨额资本开支(世纪铝业持股40%)会加剧财务压力，合作公告后股价一度下跌8.4%。获利了结情 绪：合作消息公布前，股价近5个交易日累计上涨12.52%(2月6日至2月11日)，部分投资者选择在高位兑 现收益，加剧抛压。 行业板块情况 铝价波动风险：尽管美国中西部铝溢价受关税政策支撑处于高位，但伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝价近期波 动加剧(2月12日报3117美元/吨)。蒙特利尔银行等机构指出，铝价周期性回调可能影响企业短期利润。 大盘拖累：当日美股科技股及周期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future events worth monitoring for BHP's stock include shareholder return plans, strategic project progress, and industry dynamics [1] Group 1: Performance and Operational Situation - The company has announced a shareholder return plan for the fiscal year 2026, which includes a cash dividend of $190 million (to be paid in two installments, with the second expected to be completed by June 2026) and a stock buyback of $300 million (to be executed within the next 12 months) [2] - The company commits to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% of net profit annually from 2025 to 2027 [2] Group 2: Project Advancement - In terms of capital expenditure, BHP plans to invest approximately $11 billion annually over the next two fiscal years, with a focus on advancing the Jansen potash project in Canada, which is expected to commence production by mid-2027 [3] Group 3: Industry and Risk Analysis - BHP is closely monitoring the merger negotiations between Rio Tinto and Glencore, which could impact the competitive landscape of the industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto announced on February 5, 2026, its withdrawal from the merger talks with Glencore due to valuation disagreements, leading to the collapse of a potential deal that could have created the world's largest mining company [1] Stock Performance - Following the breakdown of the merger talks, Rio Tinto's stock experienced significant volatility, dropping 5.56% to $91.12 on February 5, 2026, but rebounding in subsequent days with a total increase of 9.92% from February 5 to February 12, 2026 [2] - The stock closed at $100.16 on February 12, 2026, reflecting a recovery trend, while the overall industrial metals and mining sector showed signs of improvement during the same period [2] Institutional Insights - JPMorgan resumed coverage of Rio Tinto on February 6, 2026, with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of 7500 pence (approximately $94), highlighting the company's cash flow advantages in iron ore and its strategic expansion into copper and other materials [3] - The firm emphasized that the focus has returned to Rio Tinto's fundamentals following the failed merger talks, with a strategic blueprint released in December 2025 outlining a focus on iron ore, copper, and aluminum [3]

2026年02月12日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：原料端扰动，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：小幅震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：过剩格局未改 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：交投清淡，横盘整理 | 12 | | 钯：持续震荡 | 12 | | 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，关注投机属性风险 | 14 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 12 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2 期货研究 黄金：震荡反弹 白银：高位回落 贵金属基本面数据 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is neutral, and the recommendation for arbitrage is to hold off, while the option strategy is to sell put options [8] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand is decreasing, and the price of precious metals is still volatile. The price of copper is expected to range between 97,800 yuan/ton and 106,600 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to hold heavy positions during the Spring Festival holiday [8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On February 11, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract was 101,660 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 102,180 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase from the previous trading day's close. The opening price of the main Shanghai copper contract in the night session was 103,620 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 101,840 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 100 yuan/ton to par against the current 2602 contract, with an average discount of 50 yuan/ton, a 55 yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper ranged from 101,100 to 101,530 yuan/ton [2] 2. Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - In January, the US seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000, the largest increase since April last year. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the average hourly wage increased by 3.7% year - on - year. Traders now fully expect the Fed to cut interest rates in July, instead of June as previously expected. There are uncertainties regarding the North American trade agreement due to Trump's potential withdrawal [3] Mine End - Codelco's El Teniente project will have low production for about the next five years after a fatal accident last year. It is expected to produce 301,000 tons of copper this year. In December 2025, Codelco's copper production increased by 3.7% to 181,400 tons, while Escondida's production decreased by 16.5% to 111,500 tons, and Collahuasi's production decreased by 12.1% to 36,200 tons [4] Smelting and Import - The US has built up its largest copper inventory in decades. Traders are shipping copper to the US due to concerns about potential import tariffs. As of February 6, Comex copper inventory was about 534,405 tons, more than five times the level of a year ago. The total US copper reserve is estimated to be about 1 million tons, which can meet about 7 months of demand [5] Consumption - Spot trading was dull yesterday. Downstream enterprises are on holiday and inventory preparation is almost complete, leading to weak demand. The futures spread is in a contango structure, and holders are selling casually. In January 2026, the domestic copper rod production was 107,800 tons, a 3.21% decrease from December, with a comprehensive capacity utilization rate of 54.89%, a 1.83% decrease from the previous month [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 4,800 tons to 192,100 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 12,958 tons to 178,897 tons. On February 11, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 331,300 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The raw material side disturbances support the copper price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 102,180 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 102,190 with a night - session increase of 0.01%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,239 with a daily increase of 1.06% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 193,391, a decrease of 14,245 from the previous day, and the open interest was 568,047, an increase of 2,458. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 26,491, an increase of 14,242, and the open interest was 326,000, an increase of 893 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 178,897, an increase of 12,958. The LME copper inventory was 192,100, an increase of 3,000, and the注销仓单比 was 11.69%, an increase of 1.39% [1] - **Price Spreads**: There were various price spreads such as LME copper basis, bonded - area bill premiums, etc., with different changes compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The US January non - farm payroll report was overall strong, which dampened the market's interest - rate cut expectations, and traders postponed the expected time of the first interest - rate cut from June to July [1] - **Industry**: Glencore Canada was forced to suspend major investment in the Horne smelter in Quebec, Canada, and the investment in the Canadian copper refinery would be scaled back in the medium term. Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 was 169,500 tons, a 14% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Capstone Copper will resume full production at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile. Harmony Gold said its newly acquired Australian copper mine needs two - year renovation. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council promoted central enterprises to actively expand effective investment in computing power [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, with a range of [-2, 2] for the intensity value, indicating a certain degree of upward trend [3]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 12 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：成交下降波动收窄 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：节前情绪延续偏暖 4 | | 蛋白粕：盘面减仓力度增加 | 价格大幅上涨 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：美糖跌破下方支撑 | 预计国内价格偏弱 6 | | 油脂板块：假期临近震荡回落，整体维持宽幅震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货整体支撑 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 11 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 12 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 13 | | 钢材：需求延续下滑，钢价震荡承压 14 | | --- | | 双焦：春节临近煤矿陆续放假，年后需关注国内外煤炭市场变化 14 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 15 | | 铁合金：长假临近，多单逢高止盈 16 | | 金银： 非农数据现分歧 市场博弈转 ...