Investment Rating - The report rates the cosmetics and medical beauty industry as "Positive" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The cosmetics retail sales growth for January to May 2025 is 4.1%, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year, indicating a steady recovery in demand [3] - The performance of leading brands remains strong, with double-digit growth, supported by the theme of self-care in new consumption trends, leading to a positive outlook for the first half of 2025 [3] - The 618 shopping festival saw strong performances from domestic brands, with notable rankings on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [3] Summary by Sections Cosmetics Industry Outlook - The report anticipates significant revenue and net profit growth for major companies in Q2 and H1 2025, with specific forecasts: - Up Beauty Co. is expected to see a revenue increase of 16% and a net profit increase of 25% [3] - Marubi is projected to grow revenue by 22% and net profit by 28% in Q2 2025 [3] - Proya is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 10% and net profit growth of 15% in Q2 2025 [3] Key Companies Performance - Notable companies and their expected performance include: - Mao Geping is projected to have a revenue increase of 38% and net profit increase of 35% in H1 2025 [3] - Ruibin is expected to see a revenue increase of 15% and net profit increase of 15% in Q2 2025 [3] - Huaxi Biological is expected to maintain stable performance with a 0% revenue growth and a 10% net profit increase in Q2 2025 [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong brand matrices and comprehensive product layouts, such as Up Beauty Co., Marubi, and Proya, which are expected to benefit from the live e-commerce traffic [3] - It also highlights the importance of niche market players like Ruibin and Mao Geping, who are positioned to capitalize on the rise of personal care and domestic beauty trends [3] - For the medical beauty sector, the report suggests focusing on companies with high R&D barriers and strong profitability, recommending companies like Aimeike and Langzi [3] E-commerce and Other Segments - The report suggests monitoring e-commerce companies like Ruibin, which is expected to see significant growth in revenue and net profit [3] - In the maternal and infant sector, Kid King is projected to exceed market expectations with a revenue increase of 10% and a net profit increase of 70% in Q2 2025 [3]

| 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | | --- | 2025 年 07 月 02 日 他 研 究 开源晨会 0702 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 综合 | 2.601 | | 医药生物 | 1.804 | | 银行 | 1.535 | | 有色金属 | 1.489 | | 公用事业 | 1.046 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 计算机 | -1.182 | | 商贸零售 | -0.788 | | 通信 | -0.452 | | 传媒 | -0.376 | | 电力设备 | -0.373 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】"两重"接力支撑 PMI，预计 Q2 GDP 约 5.2%——兼评 6 月 PM ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant market performance for the week of June 23-27, 2025, with retail, social services, and beauty care sectors increasing by 4.56%, 4.61%, and 1.04% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.91% [14][17]. - Key events include the strategic investment of 3.4 billion yuan by Jianbo Biological into Yangshengtang, and the successful IPO of Yingtong Holdings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The retail, social services, and beauty care sectors ranked 9th, 8th, and 24th among 31 primary industries, with notable increases in sub-sectors such as education, professional chains, and trade, which rose by 7.47%, 7.42%, and 5.2% respectively [14][17]. Key Industry Data and News - In the beauty care sector, significant developments include the entry of Kefu Mei into Malaysia's Watsons, becoming the first Chinese efficacy skincare brand in the region, and the announcement by the National Medical Products Administration regarding the management of cosmetic raw materials [23][24]. - Jianbo Biological's restructuring of its collagen product to a medical device category and the successful listing of Yingtong Holdings are also noteworthy [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shangmei Co., Ltd., Juzhi Biological, Marubi Biological, Runben Co., Ltd., Proya, Chaohongji, Blukoo, and Furuida as potential investment targets within the highlighted sectors [5][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the upcoming summer peak season as a catalyst for the tourism and cultural sectors, highlighting the integration of cultural tourism with IP-driven new consumption logic [2][3] - It suggests focusing on the IP + scenic area concept, particularly in regions like Jiangsu, and recommends companies such as Emei Mountain A, Changbai Mountain, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, and Haichang Ocean Park [3][21] - The report notes the stabilization of second-hand prices in the trendy toy sector, driven by the summer season, while also addressing regulatory risks and price fluctuations in the second-hand market [3][22] - In the gold and jewelry sector, the report highlights the potential for high growth in terminal store efficiency and expansion opportunities for brands targeting high-end and young consumers [4][131] - The beauty and personal care sector is identified as having structural opportunities, with a focus on product innovation and long-term growth potential [5][101] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free and Scenic Areas - The report tracks the performance of duty-free operators and suggests focusing on city duty-free store openings to capture inbound tourist spending [14] - It highlights the summer tourism market's preparation, with a predicted peak in hotel guest flow in early August [15][21] 2. Trendy Toys - The report notes a significant year-on-year increase in online sales for the trendy toy sector, with a total of approximately 2,754 million yuan in sales from January to May 2025, reflecting a 61% growth [23] - It emphasizes the strong cultural presence of LABUBU, surpassing the popularity of Nintendo Switch2 and LOL in recent trends [3][27] 3. Gold and Jewelry - The report indicates that gold prices remain high, with retail sales in the gold and jewelry sector reaching 30 billion yuan in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% [128][131] - It recommends brands like Chaohongji, Laisentongling, and Laopu Gold for their growth potential in high-end markets [131] 4. Beauty and Personal Care - The report identifies significant growth opportunities in the beauty sector driven by product innovation and changing consumer habits, recommending companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei [5][101] - It highlights the successful listing of Ying Tong Holdings as a leading player in the fragrance distribution and brand management sector [68] 5. Medical Aesthetics - The report suggests that the medical aesthetics industry is poised for market share gains due to refined operations and the upcoming release of new products in Q3 [5][61] - It recommends focusing on companies like Jinbo Bio and Sihuan Pharmaceutical for their innovative product pipelines [5][66] 6. Employment and Human Resources - The report notes a stable employment situation with a slight decrease in urban unemployment rates, suggesting a focus on flexible employment leaders [102][105] 7. Sports and Events - The report highlights the ongoing development of outdoor sports and suggests monitoring the "Su Chao" theme for investment opportunities in related companies [111]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the strong performance of high-end brands and emerging effective brands in the beauty and medical aesthetics sectors, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, which saw a total e-commerce sales of 8,556 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [8][36] - The medical aesthetics market is expected to grow significantly with the approval of new products, such as the first compliant lipolytic injection in China, which is projected to expand the market from 135 million yuan in 2023 to 805 million yuan by 2025 [31][32] Summary by Sections Market Review - The beauty care index rose by 2.55% in May 2025, ranking 14th among all primary industries, underperforming the overall market [16] - In May, the top performers in the medical aesthetics sector included Kedi-B (+61.3%), Sihuan Pharmaceutical (+36.1%), and East China Pharmaceutical (+15.1%) [21][26] - In the cosmetics sector, the leading companies were Lafang Jiahua (+28.0%), Shuiyang Co. (+24.5%), and Babi Co. (+19.1%) [27][29] Medical Aesthetics - The approval of Mai Nuo Wei's "Xian Su" injection marks a significant breakthrough in the domestic lipolytic market, with a projected market size increase to 8.05 billion yuan by 2025 [31][32] - The exit of CPE as a major shareholder in Meili Tianyuan is expected to optimize the company's governance structure and enhance its market position [32] Cosmetics - The 618 shopping festival saw a total GMV of 659.09 billion yuan in the beauty category, with international high-end brands showing resilience and growth due to strong brand effects [8][41] - Domestic brands like Pechoin and Han Shu led the sales on platforms like Tmall and Douyin, with significant growth rates for new brands [44] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on strong domestic beauty brands and those benefiting from high-growth segments, highlighting companies like Shangmei Co., Maogeping, and Pechoin as key investment opportunities [47][48] - In the medical aesthetics sector, companies like Aimeike and Kedi-B are recommended for their potential growth driven by new product launches and market expansion [47][48] Market Trends - The report notes a shift towards "emotional consumption" in the beauty sector, with consumers increasingly seeking products that offer aesthetic and therapeutic benefits [48] - The overall market is expected to continue evolving with new product introductions and innovative marketing strategies as the industry enters a seasonal transition [49]

Core Viewpoint - After exiting the real estate business, the founder of YOUNGOR, Li Rucheng, is gradually divesting financial assets, with a total transaction amount of 4.2 billion yuan in the past year [2][3]. Financial Asset Divestment - YOUNGOR has sold financial assets including CITIC shares, CITIC Bank, Boqian New Materials, and Shangmei shares, with a cumulative transaction amount of 4.175 billion yuan over the past 12 months, accounting for 10.13% of the audited net assets at the end of 2024 [2]. - The financial assets are classified as "measured at fair value with changes recognized in other comprehensive income," meaning their value fluctuations do not affect current profits and losses, only dividend income impacts current investment income [2]. Strategic Shift - YOUNGOR has emphasized a "return to core business" strategy, which is a reason for the divestment of financial assets [2]. - The company announced in 2019 its intention to focus on its clothing business and cease financial equity investments outside its core operations [2]. - In late 2023, YOUNGOR officially rebranded to YOUNGOR Fashion, signaling a shift back to its original business focus [2][8]. Historical Context - YOUNGOR's investment strategy included significant stakes in various sectors, including finance, real estate, technology, and consumer goods, with notable investments in CITIC Securities and Ningbo Bank [3][4]. - The company achieved peak performance in 2014, with total assets exceeding 100 billion yuan and investment income accounting for over 60% of total profits [6]. Real Estate Exit - In 2024, YOUNGOR made a decisive move to exit the real estate sector, which had become less profitable due to market conditions, with profit margins dropping from 30% in 2015 to below 5% in 2023 [7]. - The company plans to gradually liquidate remaining land reserves through cooperative development or asset sales [7]. Fashion Business Focus - YOUNGOR aims to establish itself as a "world-class fashion group," transitioning from a diversified expansion model to a focused approach [8]. - The company is implementing a series of transformation measures, including brand differentiation and channel upgrades, to enhance its market position [9][10]. Market Challenges - Despite proactive measures, YOUNGOR faces challenges in the fashion sector, with a significant decline in revenue from its main brand YOUNGOR, which saw a year-on-year drop of 11.14% in 2024 [10]. - The company must address the increasing competition from emerging domestic fashion brands and international players, which poses a threat to its market share and brand influence [11].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector in China is currently facing challenges due to a lack of growth engines, but there are signs of recovery driven by export growth and improvements in domestic economic activities. [1][4] - **Retail Sector**: The retail sector is experiencing supply surplus and insufficient demand, necessitating a focus on new demand opportunities, including traditional channel transformations and the rise of instant retail. [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Recovery**: The recovery of exports is expected to positively impact domestic economic activities and consumption, with a notable rebound in personal income tax indicating a gradual recovery in residents' income. [1][4] - **Investment Strategy**: In July, the investment strategy should avoid liquidity-driven assets and focus on service consumption and high-turnover goods that are less affected by liquidity pressures. [1][4] - **New Consumption Trends**: New consumption is identified as a key growth driver for the next two to three years, emphasizing the creation of new consumption scenarios and business models, particularly in high-turnover and low-leverage service consumption. [1][5][6] Specific Areas of Focus - **Service Consumption**: Investment opportunities in the consumer sector are concentrated in emotional value consumption (e.g., trendy toys, pets) and functional value consumption (e.g., AI-related products). [6] - **Cross-Border Trade**: Companies engaged in cross-border trade should focus on supply chain management, brand premium capabilities, and channel premium capabilities due to tightening trade policies. [8] - **E-commerce Performance**: The 2025 618 e-commerce promotion met expectations, with Douyin's growth exceeding forecasts, highlighting a trend of collaboration across platforms. Instant retail channels performed exceptionally well during this event. [9][10] Additional Important Insights - **Tobacco Industry**: The tobacco industry is showing a stable upward trend, with new products like Glohilo from British American Tobacco expected to perform well in Japan. [3][11][12] - **Home Appliances**: The home appliance sector is expected to see double-digit growth driven by national policy support, with leading companies using pricing strategies to enhance market share. [3][22] - **Household Goods**: The household goods sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with a focus on companies that can demonstrate alpha capabilities. [3][13] - **Competition in Cleaning Appliances**: The competition in the cleaning appliance sector is easing, benefiting companies like Roborock and Ecovacs, with expectations of rising industry profit margins. [3][20] Conclusion The conference call highlighted the complexities and opportunities within various sectors of the Chinese economy, particularly in consumer and retail markets. The focus on new consumption trends, service-oriented products, and strategic adjustments in response to economic conditions will be crucial for navigating the current landscape.

Group 1: Gold and Jewelry - In H1 2025, gold prices surged, leading to a decline in gold jewelry consumption while investment gold consumption increased, continuing the trend from 2024 [13][17] - The report anticipates that in H2 2025, gold prices may fluctuate at high levels due to geopolitical conflicts and economic downturns, with central banks continuing to purchase gold [23] - Recommended companies include Laopuhuang, Chow Tai Fook, Chao Hong Ji, and Cai Bai Co., which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in gold consumption [23][24][26][30] Group 2: Cosmetics - The cosmetics market showed weak performance in H1 2025, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.1% from January to May, lagging behind overall retail growth [32][35] - Long-term trends in the cosmetics industry remain focused on increasing penetration rates and domestic brand substitution, with a recommendation to focus on brands like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Co. for their strong performance and growth potential [35][36][42] - Mao Ge Ping is highlighted for its high-end positioning and significant growth in both online and offline channels, while Shangmei Co. has shown impressive performance during promotional events [36][42] Group 3: Personal Care - The personal care sector, particularly in sanitary napkins and oral care, is expected to maintain stable demand, with domestic brands leading the market [49][51] - The oral care segment is experiencing a shift towards higher-value products driven by consumer demand for efficacy, with domestic brands like Deng Kang Oral Care gaining market share [53][54] - Key companies to watch include Baiya Co. and Deng Kang Oral Care, which are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [49][53] Group 4: Apparel and Footwear - The apparel retail sector showed moderate growth in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3% in retail sales from January to May [8][14] - Outdoor brands are performing exceptionally well, with high-end outdoor brands like Amer Sports and Anta showing significant revenue growth [8][15] - Recommended companies include Anta Sports for its strong outdoor brand growth and Mercury Home Textiles for its effective marketing strategies [15][16] Group 5: Textile Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector is witnessing a shift in export share towards Southeast Asia, with a notable decline in imports from China to the U.S. [8][18] - The report indicates that U.S. apparel imports from Southeast Asia are increasing, while imports from China are decreasing, suggesting a strategic shift in manufacturing locations [18][19] - Companies with diversified production capabilities across regions are recommended for investment consideration [18][19] Group 6: Home Furnishings - The home furnishings market is experiencing growth driven by government policies encouraging upgrades, with furniture retail sales in May 2025 showing a year-on-year increase of 25.6% [8][20] - Key players in the home furnishings sector include Gujia Home and Oppein Home, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing market trends [20][21]

Core Insights - The strategic vision of Up Beauty Co., led by CEO Lv Yixiong, emphasizes long-term focus and multi-brand matrix, which is increasingly evident in the cosmetics industry development in the first half of 2025 [1] - Up Beauty Co. leverages a "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" approach to navigate challenges in the global beauty market, achieving record sales during the 618 shopping festival [1] Group 1: Main Brand Performance - The main brand, Han Shu, has maintained a leading position in the competitive beauty market, ranking as the top beauty brand on Douyin for two consecutive years [2] - During the 618 period, Han Shu achieved significant sales growth across major platforms, with Tmall sales increasing by over 46% and Douyin sales reaching top rankings in multiple categories [2][7] - The Han Shu X Peptide series achieved over 100 million in sales during the 618 event, showcasing the brand's strong research and innovation capabilities [4] Group 2: New Brand Growth - Newpage, a brand focused on infant skincare, reported a revenue of 376 million yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 146.3% [11] - During the 618 shopping festival, Newpage saw triple-digit growth across major e-commerce platforms, with Tmall sales increasing by 106% within the first 3.5 hours [11] - The brand's "medical-research co-creation" model has proven effective, leading to significant sales of its star product, the infant soothing cream [12] Group 3: Emerging Brand Success - Anminyou, a brand targeting sensitive skin, experienced a sales increase of over 65% during the 618 period, with notable growth across various platforms [21] - The brand's star product, Qinghao Soothing Essence, ranked second on Douyin's anti-wrinkle essence list during the 618 event, indicating strong market presence [26] Group 4: Strategic Development and Innovation - Up Beauty Co. aims to reach a target of 30 billion yuan by 2030, focusing on a multi-brand and multi-category business model [27] - The company has invested in AI-driven smart factories, enhancing production capacity and efficiency, with a daily output of 2 million bottles [27] - Up Beauty Co. has established a robust research and development framework, including a scientific committee of over 300 researchers, to drive innovation and product development [29]

Core Viewpoint - Lin Qingxuan, a pioneer in the skincare industry, is on the verge of an IPO in Hong Kong, positioning itself as a leading high-end domestic skincare brand in China, with significant growth in revenue and profitability [4][5][6]. Group 1: Company Overview - Lin Qingxuan has sold 30 million bottles of its "essence oil" over 13 years, showcasing its market education efforts [4]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 82.5% [5]. - Lin Qingxuan's gross margin is competitive, second only to the high-end brand Mao Geping, and comparable to international brands like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder [5][6]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Lin Qingxuan ranks first among high-end domestic skincare brands in China and is the only domestic brand in the top 15 high-end skincare brands [6]. - The brand emphasizes its high-end positioning in its prospectus, highlighting a shift in consumer confidence towards domestic brands [6][8]. - The company has a balanced product category distribution, with its flagship product, camellia oil, accounting for 37% of sales [18]. Group 3: Growth and Expansion - Lin Qingxuan's offline store count has grown from 366 to 506 in two years, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.6%, making it the fastest-growing high-end domestic skincare brand in terms of store count [23]. - The company has a strong online presence, with online revenue growing by 81.08% to 714 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 59.1% of total revenue [25]. - Lin Qingxuan's marketing strategy includes a focus on experiential retail and personalized skincare solutions, targeting high-income consumers [24]. Group 4: Innovation and R&D - The company has invested in R&D, with 42 core ingredients developed, and aims to deepen its technological capabilities in the camellia oil sector [32]. - Lin Qingxuan has established long-term supply agreements for camellia flowers and operates two factories in Shanghai, including a carbon-neutral facility [32]. - The brand's R&D expenditure is currently below industry standards, indicating room for improvement in innovation [37]. Group 5: Future Challenges and Vision - Lin Qingxuan aims to become a leading global cosmetics group, competing with established international brands [33]. - The company faces challenges in marketing expenses and needs to enhance its R&D investment to keep pace with industry leaders [36][37]. - The brand's future plans include expanding its product matrix and targeting younger demographics, indicating a strategic shift towards broader market appeal [37].