邱处机 . 专门研究商业牛人 豪赌新能源时代。 以下文章来源于邱处机 ，作者邱鑫浩 作者：邱鑫浩 来源：邱处机 河南栾川县的崇山峻岭间，洛阳钼业的三道庄矿区里，无人挖矿机正在有条不紊地作业，数十 辆无人驾驶矿卡在蜿蜒的矿道上川流不息。 这家全球最大的钴生产商、全球十大铜生产商、巴西领先的磷肥生产商，已成为中国矿企国际 化的典范，市值接近 5000 亿元。 作为洛阳钼业的实控人，于泳在胡润富豪榜最新数据里的身家高达 950 亿。 但有意思的是，这位矿产大佬是一位几乎不在公开场合露面的神秘富豪。他从不担任公司任何 职务，甚至缺席了公司两次上市仪式。 这里插播一条课程资讯： 报名 「 黑马·欧洲游学 」， 7天6晚， 我们将带您 回到品牌的"第一现场"， 从 巴黎到米兰 ，直击 LV、欧莱雅、Prada 等顶流品牌的诞生地与核心工厂。 我们还将潜入IFM学院解密奢侈品管理逻辑，在蓝带学院领悟生活方式定义权，更能探访Loro Piana面料实验室，解锁产业链密码。 30席限量抢位， 带你用欧洲思维重构品牌壁垒，从"卖产品"到"卖梦想"，用文化重新定义品 牌定价权！ 扫码咨询报名 （翻到底部了解详情） 01 捡 漏 于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term momentum indicators in understanding institutional behavior, particularly during market cycles, and highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the materials sector, specifically tungsten and copper [1][3]. Group 1: Momentum Indicators - Long-term momentum indicators, while not providing immediate timing signals, are beneficial for understanding institutional behavior [1]. - The RSL (Relative Strength Line) and SSV (Short-term Strength Value) indicators are discussed, indicating a transition into a second phase of upward movement in the market [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The article references a significant bottom divergence in RSL during the end of a bear market, suggesting that institutions are actively building positions against the trend [1]. - Specific companies in the tungsten sector, such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten, exhibited similar bottom momentum structures, leading to substantial price increases [3]. Group 3: Copper Sector Insights - In the copper sector, companies like Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, Western Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals also showed strong bottom momentum structures, resulting in impressive price movements [5]. - The article posits that the upward trends in tungsten and copper are not yet complete, indicating the beginning of a second foundational phase for these sectors [5]. Group 4: Market Trends and Volatility - Historical data suggests that the base retracement in the materials sector can be significant, but current regulatory environments may lead to reduced volatility [5]. - The first base retracement is noted to be around 26%, with hopes for similar performance in the second base [5].

有色金属周报 20260208 情绪趋稳，商品价格筑底 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601899.SH | 紫金矿业 | 37.19 | 1.21 | 2.00 | 2.71 | 31 | 19 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603993.SH | 洛阳钼业 | 21.99 | 0.63 | 0.88 | 1.29 | 35 | 25 | 17 | 推荐 | | 000807.SZ | 云铝股份 | 31.70 | 1.27 | 1.94 | 2.31 | 25 | 16 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603799.SH | 华友钴业 | 70.45 | 2.50 | 3.15 | 4.17 | 28 | 22 | 17 | 推荐 | | 00 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that copper prices may experience short-term fluctuations due to inventory accumulation, with recent price changes of -4.02% for LME copper, -3.45% for SHFE copper, and -1.33% for COMEX copper. The report anticipates a decrease in price volatility and potential high-level fluctuations in the near term [5] - The report highlights that the Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is considering including copper concentrate in national reserves, which could positively impact copper prices in the medium to long term [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that inventory accumulation may lead to short-term price fluctuations, with SHFE aluminum prices dropping by 7.74% to 23,400 CNY/ton and LME aluminum prices down by 2.20% to 3,063 USD/ton [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics for lithium carbonate, suggesting a possible upward price trend [5] - Cobalt raw material tightness persists, with a recommendation to monitor downstream replenishment after the Spring Festival [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides macroeconomic insights, including a better-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI in the US for January at 52.6, and lower-than-expected ADP employment figures [9] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a decline, with the Shenwan non-ferrous sector down 8.51%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.24 percentage points [11] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - LME copper prices fell by 4.02%, SHFE copper by 3.45%, and COMEX copper by 1.33%. Inventory levels increased, with LME copper stocks up 4.74% and SHFE copper stocks up 6.83% [24] 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices decreased by 2.20%, while SHFE aluminum prices dropped by 7.74%. The report notes a significant increase in SHFE aluminum inventory by 13.09% [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices fell by 2.82%, and SHFE lead prices decreased by 3.05%. LME zinc prices dropped by 1.93%, with SHFE zinc prices down by 6.95% [45] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices decreased by 13.93%, and SHFE tin prices fell by 18.32%. LME nickel prices dropped by 3.71%, while SHFE nickel prices decreased by 8.98% [56] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices saw a significant decline, with lithium carbonate down 16.20% to 134,500 CNY/ton and lithium hydroxide down 16.14% to 132,500 CNY/ton [73] 3.2 Cobalt - The report notes a decrease in MB cobalt prices by 0.19% to 25.88 USD/pound, with domestic cobalt prices down 9.60% to 405,000 CNY/ton [85]

Core Insights - The global refined copper production capacity and output are projected to increase annually from 2018 to 2024, with a capacity of 33.236 million tons and an output of 27.486 million tons expected in 2024, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of 82.70% [1] - The global refined copper consumption is also on the rise, expected to reach 27.348 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [5] - Major consumption sectors for refined copper include consumer and general products, refrigeration, and electronics, accounting for approximately 23% of total consumption, while the construction sector represents 26% [7] Production and Capacity - The refined copper production capacity is forecasted to reach 33.236 million tons by 2024, with a production output of 27.486 million tons, including 4.581 million tons of recycled refined copper, which is a 2.0% increase year-on-year [1] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global copper smelting output is estimated at 3.3% from 2024 to 2028, with a projected output of 33.20 million tons by 2030 [11] Demand Drivers - The demand for refined copper is primarily driven by the acceleration of global electrification, the booming electric vehicle industry, and large-scale renewable energy projects, all of which require copper for its excellent conductivity [14] - Additional demand growth is anticipated from the recovery of the global economy and increased infrastructure investments in construction, industrial, and consumer goods sectors [14] - The refined copper usage is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.0% from 2025 to 2030, reaching 32.75 million tons by 2030 [14]

从时间节点看，2月往往处于春节前后，是全年中市场情绪相对活跃的阶段之一。历史经验显示，在政 策预期、资金回流以及风险偏好回升等多重因素作用下，春季行情往往具备一定延续性。众赢财富通研 究发现，当前市场在经历前期震荡整理后，整体估值压力有所缓解，而成交活跃度与主题投资热度正在 回升，这为结构性机会的展开提供了基础。 在行业分布方面，电子板块依旧是券商配置的"压舱石"。随着算力需求持续扩张、国产替代进程加快以 及产业链景气度改善，相关细分领域的中长期逻辑并未发生变化。海光信息等公司因其在核心技术和产 业链地位上的优势，获得多家券商同时推荐，反映出机构对科技自主可控与高端制造方向的持续看好。 众赢财富通观察发现，电子板块内部的分化正在加剧，资金更倾向于流向业绩确定性相对较高、具备产 业趋势支撑的细分龙头。 机械设备板块在2月金股中同样占据重要位置。该板块一方面受益于制造业升级与设备更新需求，另一 方面也与算力基础设施、能源开发等投资方向密切相关。部分券商指出，机械设备企业订单可见度较 高、盈利修复节奏相对明确，在市场风格切换阶段具备较好的配置价值。众赢财富通认为，在当前宏观 环境下，兼具成长属性与一定周期弹性的装备 ...

Fund Size Statistics - The top three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Scale Index ETF (¥15.406 billion), Cross-border Industry Index ETF (¥6.624 billion), and Strategy Index ETF (¥5.384 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF types by fund size change are: Theme Index ETF (-¥26.004 billion), Cross-border Scale Index ETF (-¥1.807 billion), and Cross-border Theme Index ETF (¥0.203 billion) [9] - The top three equity ETF products by fund size change are: CSI 500 ETF (¥2.832 billion), Chemical ETF (¥2.386 billion), and HuShen 300 ETF (¥2.229 billion) [9] - The bottom three equity ETF products by fund size change are: Communication ETF (-¥30.885 billion), Non-ferrous Metals ETF (-¥3.932 billion), and Gold Stock ETF (-¥2.963 billion) [13] Market Outlook - The macro timing model for February 2026 has a score of 0, indicating a historical 78.57% probability of the full A index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.37% [23] - A-shares are expected to experience a short-term volatile market, influenced by liquidity from overseas markets and the recent AI bubble discussions affecting tech growth stocks [23] - The recommendation is to adopt a balanced ETF allocation strategy due to the anticipated short-term fluctuations in the market [60]

消息面上，博泰车联近日宣布，与平安财险订立框架合作协议，双方将通过"AI+车联网技术+保险服 务"的深度融合创新，打破汽车产业与金融保险产业的行业边界，实现从"基础服务"向"个性化、全场景 赋能"的跨越式升级，重构智慧出行保险生态，引领智慧出行时代的保险服务变革与用户体验升级。 值得注意的是，依托其在智能座舱、大模型及具身智能等前沿领域的深厚积累，博泰车联正加速推动技 术成果向商业化场景转化。2025年10月，公司与人工智能领军企业商汤科技达成全面战略合作，聚焦 AI大模型在智能座舱中的深度应用，并同步布局人形机器人与舱驾一体等未来赛道，彰显其向高阶智 能出行生态跃迁的决心。 博泰车联 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 280.00 10.20 3.78% 4.37% 2.92% 1.46% 0.00% 1.46% 2.92% 4.37% 258.00 261.93 265.87 269.80 273.73 277.67 281.60 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 0 733 1467 2200 博泰车联(02899)午后涨超4%，高见282港元，再创上市新高。截至发稿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market experienced a significant reversal on February 7, 2026, with gold prices reaching $4962.65 per ounce, marking a more than 5% increase, the largest single-day rise since the 2008 financial crisis. Silver prices surged over 10%, surpassing $79 per ounce, while domestic gold consumption remained stable, highlighting a disconnect between international and local market perceptions [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The international precious metals market saw widespread gains, with platinum prices rising over 8% to around $2450 per ounce, and palladium also recording significant increases. The trading volume of gold futures surged by 45%, indicating that institutional investors were repositioning rather than retail investors [3]. - Domestic gold prices showed a mixed response, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold T+D product increasing by 2.19% to 1104.00 yuan per gram, while bank investment gold bars saw a decline, reflecting a complex pricing mechanism influenced by brand premiums and operational costs [3][11]. - The pricing strategy of brand gold stores reinforces the independence of domestic gold prices, with significant premiums over the international gold price due to brand image and cultural recognition [11][13]. Group 2: Economic Influences - Weak economic data, particularly a lower-than-expected private sector job growth in the U.S., dampened expectations of an overheating economy and prolonged high interest rates, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index and making gold an attractive safe-haven asset [5]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between U.S. forces and Iranian-backed groups, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [5][10]. - The recent technical rebound in gold prices was driven by short covering and opportunistic buying after a significant drop in late January, indicating a volatile market sentiment [6]. Group 3: Structural Changes - The gold market is undergoing a structural shift, with central banks increasing their gold reserves significantly, as evidenced by a net purchase of 53 tons in October 2025, reflecting a long-term strategic shift away from the dollar [8][19]. - The demand for gold jewelry in China is evolving, with younger consumers driving new trends and redefining gold as a financial product rather than just a traditional gift [10][16]. - The volatility in the precious metals market has reached historical highs, prompting banks to increase margin requirements and risk management measures to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations [8][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Major investment banks have adjusted their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 target price to $5400 per ounce, indicating strong bullish sentiment despite potential economic downturns [19]. - The traditional negative correlation between the U.S. dollar index and gold prices is changing, as gold is increasingly viewed as a strategic asset for hedging against sovereign credit risks [17][19]. - The current market dynamics suggest a complex interplay of various investor types, including quantitative funds and retail investors, which complicates the overall market behavior and pricing strategies [19].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but rebounded slightly, closing down overall. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.21% to 26,559.95 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1.11% to 5,346.20 points, and the National Enterprises Index dropped by 0.68% to 9,031.38 points [1] - The Hang Seng Index opened at 26,354.34 points, down 530.90 points, and fluctuated throughout the day, ultimately closing down 325.29 points. The total trading volume exceeded 247.8 billion HKD [1] Capital Flow - The southbound trading under the Stock Connect saw a net inflow of over 14.8 billion HKD on the same day [1] Sector Performance - New consumption, oil and gas stocks generally saw gains, while sectors such as biomedicine, new energy vehicles, coal, and banking experienced mixed results. Conversely, gold, non-ferrous metals, brokerage, real estate, building materials, aviation, and telecommunications stocks mostly declined [1] Individual Stock Movements - Notable individual stock performances included Xiaomi Group up by 0.74%, Meituan down by 2.56%, and SMIC up by 0.22%. Other significant movements included Longi Green Energy up by 4.97%, Hong Kong Exchanges down by 1.64%, and Zijin Mining down by 1.41% [1] - Among the top three stocks by trading volume, Tencent Holdings fell by 1.97% with a turnover exceeding 19.4 billion HKD, Alibaba dropped by 2.88% with over 12 billion HKD in turnover, and AIA Group decreased by 5.54% with a turnover exceeding 4.7 billion HKD [1]