2026年02月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：库存增加，限制价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：上行动力不足 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存增加，价格承压 | 8 | | 锡：震荡调整 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：持续震荡整理 | 12 | | 钯：窄幅震荡 | 12 | | 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，节前资金离场限制弹性 | 14 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 11 日 黄金：震荡反弹 白银：高位回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 2026年02月11日 商 品 研 究 | 期货研究 | | | --- | --- | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 48 | | LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 | 49 | | 丙烯：现货持稳，基差收敛 | 49 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 52 | | 燃料油：窄幅震荡，短期波动缩小 | 53 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘短线转强，外盘现货高低硫价差仍处低位 | 53 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 54 | | 短纤：短期震荡市20260211 | 57 | | 瓶片：短期震荡市20260211 | 57 | | 胶版印刷纸：节前观望 | 58 | | 纯苯：偏强震荡 | 60 | | 棕榈油：基本面驱动有限，震荡调整 | 61 | | 豆油：报告缺乏亮点，区间震荡 | 61 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹震荡 | 63 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 63 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 65 | | 白糖：关注低基差机会 | 66 | | 棉花：节前预计维持震荡走势20260211 | 67 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 69 | | 生猪：旺季 ...

Group 1 - Angola's first significant copper mine, Tetelo, shipped its first batch of copper concentrate in January, marking the country's diversification of mineral resource income [2] - The Tetelo copper mine, owned by Shining Star Icarus, has an investment of $250 million and is set to begin operations in October 2025 [2] - The mine plans to produce approximately 19,000 tons of copper concentrate this year, reaching a stable production of 23,000 tons next year, and aims to increase annual output to about 36,000-40,000 tons by around 2030 [2] Group 2 - Initial mining will be open-pit, transitioning to underground mining in the second half of 2026 [3] - Ivanhoe Mines and Anglo American also have copper exploration projects in Angola [3] Group 3 - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential shortage of copper necessary for infrastructure and technology development, highlighting a growing concern in the market [1] - Joseph Shaefer, a seasoned analyst with extensive experience in various sectors, leads an investment group focused on energy, resources, aerospace, defense, and infrastructure [1] - The Investor's Edge® offers unique features for subscribers, including a sample portfolio, early notifications of relevant articles, and real-time updates on investment activities [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific financial data or performance metrics related to companies or industries [2][3]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company's own copper production increased by 9% year-on-year to 268,100 tons, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%. The guidance for copper production in 2026 is set at 810,000 to 870,000 tons [1][3] - The company's cobalt production in Q4 2025 was 7,600 tons, a decrease of 35% year-on-year and 21% quarter-on-quarter. The total cobalt production for 2025 was 36,100 tons, down 5% year-on-year [1][3] - Zinc production in Q4 2025 was 260,000 tons, a decrease of 1% year-on-year but an increase of 6% quarter-on-quarter. The total zinc production for 2025 was 969,400 tons, up 7% year-on-year [1][3] - The company reported a total gold production of 156,000 ounces (4.85 tons) in Q4 2025, down 20% year-on-year but up 6% quarter-on-quarter. The total gold production for 2025 was 604,000 ounces (18.79 tons), down 18% year-on-year [2][3] - The Democratic Republic of Congo lifted its cobalt export ban in Q4 2025 and implemented an export quota system, which is expected to impact the company's cobalt export strategy positively [5][3] Production Overview - Q4 2025 production figures: - Copper: 268,100 tons, up 9% YoY, up 12% QoQ - Cobalt: 7,600 tons, down 35% YoY, down 21% QoQ - Zinc: 260,000 tons, down 1% YoY, up 6% QoQ - Lead: 46,200 tons, down 7% YoY, up 11% QoQ - Nickel: 19,500 tons, down 3% YoY, up 23% QoQ - Gold: 156,000 ounces (4.85 tons), down 20% YoY, up 6% QoQ - Silver: 5,607,000 ounces (174.40 tons), up 5% YoY, down 2% QoQ [1][2][3] Future Guidance - The company expects to produce between 810,000 and 870,000 tons of copper in 2026, with cobalt production not specified [6][3] - The cobalt export quota for 2026 includes 16,100 tons from KCC and 6,700 tons from Mutanda, with a total allocation of 22,800 tons [6][3]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260210 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好回暖，主要资产普遍反弹 海外方面，日本执政党在 2 月众议院选举获压倒性胜利，首相称食品减税将通过非税收 入与补贴审查筹资、不发行赤字国债，日股涨近 4%，日元兑美元升值 0.85%。贝森特称即 便沃什执掌美联储，缩表亦难加速，在压低按揭利率目标下，美联储将以金融稳定优先，避 免激进收紧。市场风险偏好继续修复，美股全线收涨，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.19%，金银分 别修复至 5030、82 美元，铜价、油价延续收涨 1%+。本周关注美国 1 月非农、CPI 以及 12 月零售数据。 国内方面，上周处于经济数据与政策真空期，国内市场跟随海外进一步修复，A 股周一 延续修复，上证指数低开高走收于 4123 点，双创板块领涨，红利风格相对较弱，两市超 4700 只个股收涨、赚钱效应极好，成交额小幅升至 2.27 万亿元，两融余额边际下降，中证 500、 中证 1000ETF 显著净流入。市场正从月初的大跌中逐渐修复：一方面受海外科技股反弹 ...

2月9日（周一），刚果民主共和国将执行一项长期搁置的规定，要求本地员工拥有矿山所有权，此举可能会重新平衡部分铜和钴生产商的股权。 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 SMM联合制作联系人 嘉能可（Glencore Plc）、艾芬豪矿业（Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.）和欧亚资源（Eurasian Resources Group）等在该国运营有矿山。 巴里克矿业在该国运营大型金矿，同时该国还拥有大量的锂、钽、锡和锌矿床。 该命令援引了刚果2018年采矿法规和规定，要求矿企为刚果员工保留5%所有权（股份）。从历史上看，这些规则并没有得到很好的执行。 员工所有权规则与采矿项目将10%的所有权转让给该国政府的要求是分开的，在采矿许可证续期时，还要额外转让5%的所有权。 （文华综合） 刚果矿业部长Louis Watum在1月30日致该国所 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to have an oscillating rebound, while silver is predicted to decline from its high level [2][6]. - The decline of the US dollar supports the price of copper [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to trade within a range [2][13]. - Due to the losses in secondary lead production, attention should be paid to the lower support levels of lead [2][16]. - Tin is undergoing technical correction [2][19]. - It is recommended to hold a light position in aluminum before the holiday; alumina is expected to rebound from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Platinum is in an oscillating consolidation phase, and palladium is trading within a box range [2][26][27]. - Nickel is affected by the exit of funds before the holiday, and the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia; in February, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in stainless steel, and the cost support center is moving up [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of gold and silver showed significant increases. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 3.29%, and that of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 10.24%. The trading volumes of both decreased compared to the previous day [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of gold and silver in Shanghai and Comex decreased to varying degrees. For example, the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 31,354 kg [5]. - **News**: Before the release of the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning", indicating that employment growth may be lower than expected [5]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Copper and London Copper increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 1.74%. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper decreased, while that of London Copper also decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 3,044 tons, and that of London Copper increased by 1,025 tons [10]. - **News**: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; Alphabet raised 20 billion US dollars through US dollar bonds and planned to issue 100 - year sterling bonds; the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association considered including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve; Glencore suspended major investment in a Canadian smelter; Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 decreased by 14% year - on - year; Capstone Copper will resume full - scale production at a copper - gold mine in Chile [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 0.47%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased, while that of London Zinc increased [13]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased by 176 tons, and that of London Zinc decreased by 675 tons [13]. - **News**: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; before the release of the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning" about lower - than - expected employment growth [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Lead and London Lead increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 0.45%. The trading volumes of both decreased [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead increased by 4,968 tons, and that of London Lead decreased by 100 tons [16]. - **News**: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; Alphabet raised 20 billion US dollars through US dollar bonds and planned to issue 100 - year sterling bonds [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Tin and London Tin increased significantly. The daily increase of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 6.61%. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin decreased, and that of London Tin also decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of Shanghai Tin and London Tin decreased. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 379 tons, and that of London Tin decreased by 55 tons [20]. - **News**: The decline of US Treasury bonds widened; the memory price soared by up to 90% compared to Q4 2025; Tesla's Tao Lin said there is no specific date for FSD to be launched in China; Wang Yi will attend the first senior officials' meeting of APEC in 2026 [20][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different degrees of change. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased. The trading volumes of aluminum and alumina decreased, while that of cast aluminum alloy increased [23]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the inventories of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also changed [23]. - **News**: The Fed may reach an agreement with the US Treasury to clarify the balance sheet scale and adjust the bond - holding structure; the market expects the US core CPI to rebound in January [24]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum and palladium increased. The daily increase of platinum futures 2606 was 7.72%, and that of palladium futures 2606 was 6.74%. The trading volumes of both decreased [26]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of NYMEX platinum decreased, and the inventory of NYMEX palladium remained unchanged [26]. - **News**: US ships are advised to stay away from Iranian waters; the White House's Hasset predicted a decline in employment; the US Commerce Secretary was involved in a scandal; the EU proposed to include third - country ports in the sanctions against Russia; the UK government's communication director resigned; Alphabet planned to raise about 15 billion US dollars through bond issuance; OpenAI's Altman said ChatGPT's monthly growth rate exceeded 10% [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel increased. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased by 2,680, and that of the stainless steel main contract increased by 65. The trading volumes of both decreased [30]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses; China implemented export license management for some steel products; the Indonesian government planned to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore; the planned nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2026 was significantly reduced; some Indonesian mines faced potential fines for illegal land use; the Indonesian government would adjust the nickel production quota according to industry demand; a nickel - carrying ship sank; the Indonesian government approved the mining work plan and budget for 2026; a Swiss company planned to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala; a Chinese company in Indonesia failed to submit an investment report [30][31][33].

Orion Minerals is set to secure a $250m binding prepayment facility from Glencore to support the development of its Prieska Copper Zinc Project in South Africa. The agreement, executed through Orion's subsidiary, Prieska Copper Zinc Mine (PCZM), involves the sale of bulk copper and zinc concentrates, facilitating the Uppers Development and partially funding the Deeps Development at the project. This marks a significant advancement in Orion’s move towards full operational status. The prepayment facility ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term bullish logic for copper, aluminum, and alumina remains unchanged. However, recently, market funds have become less enthusiastic, and prices may remain in an adjustment phase before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the pressure brought by continuously rising inventories. For alumina, its fundamentals maintain an oversupply pattern, and a rebound requires new market drivers [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - Copper: The average price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Color Market decreased from 104,640 yuan/ton on January 30, 2026, to 100,100 yuan/ton on February 6, 2026. The futures closing price of the main CU contract dropped from 103,680 yuan/ton to 100,100 yuan/ton. LME copper total inventory increased from 174,975 tons to 183,275 tons [8]. - Aluminum: The average price of A00 aluminum in the Yangtze River Color Market decreased from 24,640 yuan/ton to 23,110 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the main AL contract fell from 24,560 yuan/ton to 23,315 yuan/ton. LME aluminum total inventory decreased from 495,725 tons to 490,975 tons [8]. - Alumina: The spot price index remained unchanged at 2,646 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the main A0 contract increased from 2,768 yuan/ton to 2,824 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.2 Weekly News Review - On February 5, Rio Tinto Group announced the abandonment of merger negotiations with Glencore, causing a world - class mining integration plan worth over $200 billion to end without result [11]. - On February 5, Canadian miner Capstone Copper's largest union at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile approved a new three - year labor contract, ending a strike that lasted over a month [11]. - On February 6, LME's deliverable copper inventory reached an 11 - month high [11]. - On February 9, the upper - limit price fluctuation range and trading margin ratio of copper, aluminum, and other futures contracts will be adjusted [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - On February 5, the European Central Bank kept its three key interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. About 85% of surveyed economists believe that interest rates will remain unchanged before 2026 [13]. - Upcoming macro - economic data announcements include China's January M2, M0, M1 money supply year - on - year, social financing scale increment, and new RMB loans; China's January CPI and PPI year - on - year; and the US January unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls change, and CPI year - on - year [14]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Market Analysis 3.3.1 Copper - **Spot Market**: As of February 5, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 4.03% week - on - week, and the total inventory increased by 62,700 tons year - on - year [30]. - **Futures Market**: Data shows the historical trends of Shanghai copper futures, options, and international copper futures positions [20]. - **Overseas Market**: Data presents the historical trends of LME copper inventory [26]. - **Market Inventory**: Data shows the historical trends of Shanghai bonded area copper inventory, SHFE copper inventory, LME copper inventory, and COMEX copper inventory [26]. - **Downstream Consumption**: From January 30 to February 5, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 69.07%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points week - on - week. Due to the copper price limit - down triggering downstream purchasing, orders in the enameled wire and cable industries soared. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises will decrease by 13.67 percentage points to 55.4% this week [30]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Domestic Market**: Data shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum spot inventory and 6063 aluminum rod inventory [32]. - **Futures Market**: Data presents the historical trends of aluminum futures, options, alumina futures, and alumina options positions [35]. - **Overseas Market**: Data shows the historical trends of LME aluminum total inventory [38]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of February 5, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points. Different sub - industries showed different trends [40]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of February 5, the SMM ADC12 quotation decreased by 750 yuan/ton week - on - week. Before the Spring Festival, demand and supply will contract simultaneously, and prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation with a slightly downward center of gravity [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: Data shows the historical trends of electrolytic aluminum cost, profit, and the relationship with the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and thermal coal [47]. 3.3.3 Alumina - **Spot Market**: No specific content other than data sources is provided [51]. - **Futures Market**: No specific content is provided. - **Market Supply and Demand**: As of February 5, China's alumina production capacity was 113.9 million tons, the operating capacity was 91.5 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.15%. The demand for alumina did not change significantly [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of the week of February 6, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,821.55 yuan/ton, and the average industry profit was - 178.66 yuan/ton [57].