美国总统特朗普8日表示，将对所有进口到美国的铜征收50%的新关税，引发铜市场异动，纽约COMEX铜创出近几十年最大涨幅，而伦敦LME铜则出现快 速下跌走势，两地铜价差攀升至历史极值。 多位接受新华财经采访的分析师均表示，美国关税政策落地后，全球铜价走势进一步分化，后续铜供应链或面临重构，中美欧三地铜价或呈现"美国价格逼 空上行，欧洲价格承压下行，中国价格抗跌韧性"的剧烈分化。 中美欧三地铜价走势分化 受关税政策扰动，隔夜市场纽约COMEX铜期货大幅拉升，日内一度飙升17%，创下单日最大涨幅纪录，最高报每磅5.8955美元（约合每吨12628美元）。沪 铜夜盘也跟随纽铜小幅上涨，收报每吨80030元，表现稳健；但跨市场套利资金则打压LME铜价，伦敦LME铜走势承压，收跌1.22%，报每吨9665美元，美 铜和伦铜价差一度攀升至每吨2750美元的历史极值。 图片来源：新华财经 物产中大期货副总经理、首席经济学家景川对新华财经解释称，在特朗普关税政策扰动下，引发市场对美国铜供应中断的担忧，或加剧全球铜库存分布失衡 的局面。 与此同时，纽约伦敦铜价差持续攀升，吸引大量跨市套利交易，这些套利行为加剧了市场扭曲。短期内有 ...

Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Amid the traditional consumption off - season in China, the total global electrolytic copper inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, due to the US imposing tariffs on imported copper leading to inter - market arbitrage trading and disruptions in overseas copper mine production or transportation, copper prices may fluctuate strongly. It is recommended that investors close their previous short positions at low prices and lightly test long positions on the main contract. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,620, up 350 from the previous day; trading volume was 61,263 hands, down 14,051; open interest was 207,382 hands, up 2,876; inventory was 19,109 tons, down 2,573. The average price of SMN 1 electrolytic copper was 79,795, down 90 [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,665, down 119; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 102,500. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 51.31, down 28.49; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 10.76, down 16.61. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.2380, up 0.14 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 8, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.51, up 0.37; the total inventory was 221,788, up 834 [2]. Important Information - **Macro**: The US Senate - version "bill" was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with the fiscal deficit expected to expand by over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy has not significantly affected consumption. The US ADP employment number in August was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected interest - rate cut time is still September/October/December [3][4]. - **Upstream**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but rising compared to last week. The departure (arrival) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) has decreased (increased). High - quality European scrap copper exports are restricted, and due to Sino - US trade disputes, traders are reluctant to accept US scrap copper. However, the positive price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may increase the economic viability of scrap copper, and the scrap copper import window is open. Some copper smelters are affected by supply shortages and have stopped production. Domestic electrolytic copper production in July may increase month - on - month, while imports may be restricted, and the total inventory has increased [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper processing enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July. The capacity utilization rate of various copper product enterprises has generally declined month - on - month. Affected by Sino - US tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export volume of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline, except for copper foil whose capacity utilization rate may increase [4]. Company News - Northern Copper Industry (000737) stated that its produced rolled copper foil is an upstream product of the PCB business chain, with a current production capacity of 5,000 tons per year [2]. - The Indonesian Minister of the Interior requested the relaxation of the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to its impact on the local economy [2].

Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic acquisition of the Bambas copper mine by China Minmetals, which was seen as a risky investment during a downturn in the global mining industry, particularly for copper [1][3]. Group 1: Investment and Acquisition - In 2014, China Minmetals, in collaboration with CITIC Group and Guoxin International, acquired the Bambas copper mine for $7.05 billion, despite the mine being considered a "hot potato" due to its challenging conditions [1][3]. - The mine contains over 10 million tons of copper reserves, which is about one-third of China's total reserves, with a high ore grade of 0.73%, significantly above the global average [3][5]. Group 2: Operational Challenges and Innovations - The mine's location at 4,000 meters elevation presents significant operational challenges, including a 30% decrease in worker efficiency due to altitude sickness and potential transportation disruptions [5][7]. - China Minmetals has implemented advanced technologies and infrastructure improvements, including road reconstruction and the establishment of a seawater desalination plant, to enhance operational efficiency [5][7]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Community Engagement - The Bambas copper mine has created 5,600 direct jobs and indirectly supported over 20,000 jobs, significantly contributing to local economic development [9]. - The mine has also invested in local education and environmental initiatives, such as planting 1.9 million trees and restoring 368 hectares of land, which has improved community relations [9][11]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - The mine's production of 400,000 tons of copper annually accounts for one-fifth of China's domestic production, helping to reduce China's copper import dependency [11]. - The project has established a complete supply chain from overseas mining to domestic smelting, enhancing China's position in the global resource market [11].

Summary of the Conference Call for Pulaite Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The refractory materials industry in China has a low concentration, with the top five listed companies holding only 11% market share, and a low profit margin of 4.2%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2][5] - The global refractory materials market is highly concentrated, with significant shares held by major companies in Europe and the US [2][5] Company Performance - Pulaite Co., Ltd. reported that overseas revenue accounted for 28% of total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 42% [2][3] - Despite facing pressure from shipping costs and demand fluctuations, the company's profit margin is expected to recover from 2.5% in 2024 to 4.2% [2][3] - The domestic production of refractory materials in 2024 is projected to be 22 million tons, representing a 40% year-on-year decline [3] Strategic Initiatives - Pulaite is focusing on differentiated competition in the domestic market, targeting mid-to-high-end functional products and extending its supply chain upstream by securing lithium mineral resources in Tibet and Xinjiang, with mining licenses for annual capacities of 1 million tons and 1.4 million tons respectively [2][5] - The company has established a strategic partnership with GreenMei to advance its magnesium hydroxide precipitant business, which is noted for its large specific surface area and low pollution [2][4][6] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The demand for high-efficiency precipitating agents, such as activated alumina magnesium, is expected to increase due to stricter environmental regulations and the rapid development of the wet refining market [4][9][10] - The global wet phosphoric acid production is projected to reach 290,000 tons in 2024, a 22% increase year-on-year, with the battery sector being the primary downstream market [9] - Pulaite's strategic layout in the high-efficiency precipitating agent sector is expected to yield significant demand, with anticipated profits of 300 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, and a valuation of 15 to 20 times [11] Competitive Landscape - The company faces competition from major international suppliers in the precipitating agent market, such as Martin and Queensland Minerals, but Pulaite's advantages include owning high-quality mineral sources and a well-established production process [8][11] Conclusion - Pulaite Co., Ltd. is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for refractory materials and high-efficiency precipitating agents, with a strong focus on strategic partnerships and market expansion [2][11]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Electrolytic Copper) - Date: July 8, 2025 - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates still exist, and there are disturbances in the production or transportation of many overseas copper mines. However, the Trump administration's tariff increases on many countries and the emergence of traditional consumption off - season characteristics in China have led to continuous accumulation of the global total inventory of electrolytic copper, which may cause adjustments in the price of Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract lightly at high prices in the short term [4]. - The positive basis and high - level monthly spread of Shanghai copper, as well as the positive spread of LME copper contracts, are due to the easing of Sino - US mutual tariffs leading to export rush expectations and the continuous tight supply - demand expectation of global copper concentrates. But considering factors such as the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the arrival of the traditional consumption off - season in China, investors are advised to pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities for Shanghai copper monthly spreads and wait and see for LME copper arbitrage opportunities [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - economic Environment - The US Senate's "Great Beauty" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, and the fiscal deficit expansion may exceed $3 trillion. Trump postponed the effective date of reciprocal tariffs and the negotiation deadline to August 1, and sent the first batch of tariff letters to 14 countries with tax rates ranging from 25% to 40%. The US ADP employment number in June was - 33,000, lower than expected and the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, with the expected interest - rate cut time points being September/October/December [3]. Upstream Market - **Copper Concentrate**: The transportation of copper concentrates from Las Bambas and Constancia was interrupted due to road blockades by informal miners. Rio Tinto paid nearly $139 million to settle a class - action lawsuit. Some mines had production or transportation problems, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the production (import) of domestic copper concentrates in July. The import index of Chinese copper concentrates was negative but increased compared with last week, and the world (China) port copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume decreased (increased, increased) compared with last week [3][23]. - **Copper Smelting**: Some overseas copper smelters stopped production, while some domestic smelters had new production capacity put into operation. The weekly processing fees of domestic northern (southern) crude copper decreased (increased) month - on - month, and the domestic smelter's crude - smelting maintenance capacity in July may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production (import) of domestic crude copper in July [3][29]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: Some domestic electrolytic copper production capacity was put into operation, while some overseas smelters had production reduction or suspension plans. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in July will increase month - on - month, and the import volume may also increase month - on - month [3][30]. Downstream Market - **Copper Rod**: Some refined copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July. The capacity utilization rate of domestic refined (recycled) copper rods decreased (decreased) compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (decreased), and that of recycled copper rod enterprises increased (increased) [4][34]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate, raw material, and finished - product inventory of copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week. Affected by factors such as the off - season, the capacity utilization rate in July may decrease month - on - month [47][50]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: The monthly processing fee of copper enameled wire remained flat. Affected by the traditional consumption off - season, the order volume and capacity utilization rate decreased slightly compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate in July may decrease month - on - month [48][50]. - **Copper Foil**: The weekly processing fee of copper foil decreased slightly. The actual downstream order increment was mainly rigid demand, and the capacity utilization rate of lithium - ion and electronic - circuit copper foil in July may decrease month - on - month [52][54]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: Affected by the traditional consumption off - season, the orders from consumer electronics and new - energy customers decreased significantly, and the capacity utilization rate in July may decrease month - on - month [54]. - **Copper Tube and Brass Rod**: Due to factors such as the expected decrease in the production of household air - conditioners in July, high inventory of air - conditioner manufacturers, high raw - material procurement costs, and a decline in new orders, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes and brass rods in July may decrease month - on - month [56]. Market Structure and Arbitrage Opportunities - **Basis and Monthly Spread**: The basis of Shanghai copper was positive and at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread was also positive and at a relatively high level. It is recommended that investors pay attention to short - term light - position short - selling opportunities for Shanghai copper monthly spreads [8]. - **LME Copper Contract Spread**: The (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME copper were positive and at relatively high levels. The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was close to the 75% quantile of the past five years. It is recommended that investors wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [9]. - **Cross - Market Spread**: The spreads between COMEX copper and LME copper, and between COMEX copper and Shanghai copper were positive and at relatively high levels, which was due to concerns about the unexpected results of the Trump administration's Section 232 investigation on copper [11]. - **Contract Price Structure**: The closing prices of Shanghai copper's near - and far - month contracts showed a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper showed a Contango structure [13]. Inventory Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, bonded - area inventory, and LME copper inventory increased compared with last week. The COMEX copper inventory also increased due to the transportation of about 500,000 tons of copper to US ports by international traders. The copper concentrate inventory at Chinese ports increased compared with last week [16][18][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [8] Core Viewpoints - The current TC price remains extremely low, and the demand outlook is not very optimistic. However, based on the announced data, the terminal performance is acceptable. Coupled with the continuous flow of inventory from the Shanghai and London markets to the New York market, the low inventory makes the nearby contracts vulnerable to squeeze risks. Therefore, it is expected that the price will be more likely to rise than fall in the future, and the operation should still be mainly based on buying hedges on dips [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 7, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,810 yuan/ton and closed at 79,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous trading day's close. The night session of the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,370 yuan/ton and closed at 79,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% from the afternoon close of the previous day [1] Spot Situation - The spot market of electrolytic copper showed a weak consolidation pattern. The SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,800 - 79,970 yuan/ton, and the premium range of the current contract narrowed to 50 - 140 yuan/ton, with an average price of 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous day. Affected by the concentrated arrival of imports, the spot premium is expected to face downward pressure in the short term [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical Aspects**: On May 20, major banks in China adjusted the RMB deposit interest rate table, with the current deposit rate下调 by 0.05 percentage points to 0.05%, and the listed interest rates of various term time deposits下调 by 0.15 - 0.25 percentage points [3] - **Mine End**: The Indonesian Minister of the Interior requested the Ministry of Mines to relax the export ban on copper concentrates of Amman Mineral International due to its impact on the local economy. Amman's copper smelter can produce 220,000 tons of cathode copper per year [4] - **Smelting and Import**: The global supply chain has been affected by China's rare earth export control, and Western metal smelters are in crisis. The rapid expansion of China's processing capacity is squeezing the profits of the entire metal industry, and many smelters are facing closure or operating pressure [4] - **Consumption**: In June 2025, the domestic copper tube production was 166,900 tons, a decrease of 25,200 tons from May, a decrease of 13.12%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 72.25%, a decrease of 10.91% from the previous month. It is expected that the copper tube production in July will continue to decline significantly [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The LME warehouse receipts changed by 950.00 tons to 97,400 tons compared with the previous trading day, the SHFE warehouse receipts changed by -625 tons to 21,682 tons, and the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper on July 7 was 142,900 tons, a change of 11,100 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish, mainly based on buying hedges on dips [6] - **Arbitrage**: On hold [7] - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [8] Table 1: Copper Price and Basis Data - Shows the price, premium, inventory, warehouse receipt, arbitrage, import profit, and Shanghai-London ratio data of copper on different dates [27][28][29]

Report Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The expansion of the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, along with disruptions in overseas copper production and transportation, are countered by Trump's tariff policies and the traditional off - season of domestic consumption. With the continuous accumulation of global electrolytic copper inventory, the price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors lightly build short positions in the main contract, paying attention to specific support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,270 yuan, down 460 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 75,314 lots, a decrease of 25,248 lots; the open interest was 204,506 lots, down 11,232 lots; the inventory was 21,682 tons, a decrease of 625 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 615 yuan, down 190 yuan; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was - 5 yuan, down 30 yuan; in North China, it was - 170 yuan, down 20 yuan; in East China, it was - 40 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month vs. Far - Month)**: The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 280 yuan, up 20 yuan; between the first and the second continuous contracts was 150 yuan, down 20 yuan; between the second and the third continuous contracts was 250 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on July 4, 2025, was 9,852 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 97,400 tons; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 95.35 dollars, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 5.77 dollars [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 5.005 dollars, down 0.19 dollars; the total inventory was 221,456 tons, an increase of 8,285 tons [2]. 2. Industry News - **Domestic**: The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system in the Yunnan - Central Nonferrous Recycled Copper Resources Recycling Base successfully produced the first furnace of anode copper. On July 2, the No. 2 anode furnace in the refining workshop of Yuanqu Smelter was put into operation [2]. - **Overseas**: Glencore's PASAR smelter in the Philippines with a leased capacity of 200,000 tons has shut down; Zhongkuang Resources' Tsuned copper concentrator in Namibia has suspended production; Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile has reduced production; the Kakula smelter in Congo (Kinshasa) may be completed and put into operation in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons of cathode copper [4]. 3. Key Information - **Macro**: The US House - version "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars, with the fiscal deficit expected to expand by over 3 trillion dollars. The ADP employment number in a certain month was - 33,000, lower than expected, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected time for rate cuts is still September/October/December [3][4]. - **Industry**: China's copper concentrate import index is negative but has increased compared to last week. The supply of high - quality scrap copper in Europe is restricted, and due to the Sino - US trade dispute, traders are reluctant to buy US steel. However, the positive price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper may increase the economy of scrap copper, and the scrap copper import window is open. The production and import of domestic scrap copper in July may change, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be tight. The domestic smelter's monthly inspection capacity may decrease, and the production and export of domestic electrolytic copper may increase [4]. - **Downstream**: Some copper rod enterprises plan to reduce production and inventory in July due to high finished - product inventory. The operating rates of copper wire and cable, copper strip, copper pipe, and brass rod industries have decreased, and the inventory of raw materials and finished products in these industries has changed accordingly [4].

Core Insights - The new CEO of Rio Tinto is expected to significantly enhance production efficiency, implement cost reductions, and pursue transformative mergers and acquisitions [1][2] - The company is currently in the final selection phase for the new CEO, with candidates presenting to the board this week [1] - The chairman, Dominic Barton, emphasizes the need for a CEO willing to engage in substantial transactions, particularly in light of previous discussions with Glencore and potential synergies with Teck Resources [2] Group 1: CEO Selection and Expectations - The current CEO, Jakob Stausholm, will step down after a four-and-a-half-year term, with the new CEO expected to be announced by late July [1] - Internal candidates include Simon Trott, Bold Baatar, Jerome Pecresse, and Mark Davies, with a preference for internal promotion noted [4][5] - The new CEO will face challenges in controlling costs and transitioning the company towards copper mining, as demand for copper is projected to surge due to energy transitions [2] Group 2: Financial and Operational Challenges - Rio Tinto is projected to face capital expenditures of $30-35 billion over the next decade, including significant investments in lithium projects [3] - The company has experienced a 46.5% increase in costs from 2020 to 2024, outpacing competitors BHP and Anglo American, indicating a need for improved capital allocation [2] - The new leadership must address high operational costs and improve productivity, as Rio Tinto has been the highest-cost iron ore producer in Australia since Trott's appointment [4] Group 3: Candidate Profiles and Limitations - Simon Trott has overseen record iron ore shipments but has not improved cost efficiency, facing challenges from extreme weather and past incidents [4] - Bold Baatar's experience with government relations is critical, especially after recent changes in mining plans due to permit delays [4] - Jerome Pecresse has garnered support for his role in boosting aluminum profits, but his previous department faced ongoing losses [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-08 对等关税延期到期日临近，资金谨慎驱动有 色回落 有⾊观点：对等关税延期到期⽇临近，资⾦谨慎驱动有⾊回落 交易逻辑：美元偏弱势及6月制造业PMI数据改善，这对有色有提振， 但随着美国对等关税延期到期日临近，资金趋于谨慎诱发获利了结， 整体来看，市场情绪从乐观转向谨慎。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐 步季节性趋松，LME金属库存整体偏低，但国内库存去化逐步放缓。 中短期来看，市场关注点重新聚焦美国对等关税，弱美元和低库存对 价格有支撑，但关税不确定性及需求走弱预期压制价格，主要关注结 构性机会，谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸短多机会，中长期来看，基本金属需 求前景仍存在不确定性，可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期过剩品种的 逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：LME挤仓⻛险缓和，铜价⾼位回落。 氧化铝观点：仓单依然低位，氧化铝近⽉⼤涨。 铝观点：累库幅度仍待观察，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：淡季氛围显现，铝合⾦有所回调。 锌观点：供需偏过剩，锌价震荡偏弱。 铅观点：成本⽀撑稳固，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：美国对等关税扰动再起，短期镍价宽幅震荡。 不锈 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report comprehensively presents macro - data, commodity investment information, financial news, and stock market news. It shows that the economy has various trends, such as stable growth in some industries and potential fluctuations in the financial and commodity markets due to factors like policy changes and international trade situations. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 was up 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year [1]. - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month, while the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.5%, up from 50.3% in the previous month [1]. - In May 2025, social financing scale increment, M1, M2, financial institution RMB loans, and social consumer goods retail total had different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. CPI and PPI were down year - on - year, and export and import values also changed [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - DCE announced the listing benchmark prices of pure benzene futures contracts, all at 5900 yuan/ton [2]. - SHFE solicited market opinions on fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp option contracts, advancing the listing preparation [2]. - Trump threatened to impose a 10% new tariff on BRICS countries and issued tariff threats to 14 countries with different rates effective on August 1 [2][3]. Metals - China's gold reserves reached 7390 million ounces at the end of June, up 7 million ounces month - on - month, with 8 - month consecutive increases [4]. - On July 4, LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin, and nickel inventories had different changes [5]. - Speculators' net long positions in COMEX gold increased by 6,213 contracts in the week ending July 1 [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In the first five months, China's steel industry was stable, with steel output up 5.2% year - on - year, and cold - rolled sheet output in auto and home appliance manufacturing up 6.9% [6]. - In the first five months, China's coal production reached a record high, while coal imports decreased by 7.9% [6]. - Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Trafigura sought government aid to maintain Australian smelters [6]. - Malaysia imposed anti - dumping duties on some steel imports from South Korea and Vietnam [6]. - As of late June, the price of rebar hit a record low [6]. Energy and Chemicals - From June 30 to July 6, China's LNG imports were about 870,000 tons, down from the previous value [7]. - Wuhan released a plan to develop the hydrogen energy industry [7][8]. - Russia's crude oil production in June was below OPEC +'s target [9]. - Libya's oil revenue in H1 2025 reached 51.1 billion Libyan dinars [10]. - ADNOC set the official selling price of Murban crude oil in August at $69.81 per barrel [10]. - OPEC + planned to approve a new round of significant production increases in September [10]. - Speculators' net long positions in NYMEX crude oil increased by 13,541 contracts in the week ending July 1 [10]. - HSBC predicted a downward risk to the Q4 2025 Brent crude oil average price [10]. Agricultural Products - On July 7, the average price of live pigs dropped, and it was likely to continue falling on July 8 [11]. - An exporter sold 135,000 tons of corn to Mexico [11]. - An Indonesian association would buy about 800,000 tons of US wheat in the rest of 2025 [11]. - Cote d'Ivoire's cocoa processing enterprises reduced grinding capacity due to high cocoa bean prices [12]. - Russia's grain output was not affected by drought in Rostov, and the 2025 output forecast was 135 million tons [12]. - Serbia's crops might be severely affected by extreme heat [13]. Financial News Open Market - On July 7, the central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 225 billion yuan [14]. Key News - Trump's tariff threats and China's response [15]. - China's gold reserves increased for the 8th consecutive month, and foreign exchange reserves were stable [15]. - The National People's Congress launched an enforcement inspection of the Circular Economy Promotion Law [16]. - The Ministry of Finance planned to issue special and savings bonds [16]. - The first 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were over - subscribed on the first day [16]. - Longfor's domestic bond restructuring made progress [17]. - About 200 small and medium - sized banks were approved for merger or dissolution [17]. - Ningyin Consumer Finance planned to issue 1 billion yuan of financial bonds [17]. - Japanese and US Treasury bond yields changed [18]. - Goldman Sachs predicted the Fed might cut interest rates in September [18]. - There were various bond - related events such as debt defaults, corporate governance changes, and bond redemptions [19]. - There were overseas credit rating changes [20]. Bond Market - China's bond market had narrow fluctuations, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures contract fell 0.04% [21]. - Some exchange - traded bonds rose or fell, and related bond indices had different performances [22]. - The convertible bond index fell, with some bonds rising and others falling [22]. - Money market rates had different trends [23]. - Shibor short - end rates mostly declined [23]. - Bank - to - bank repurchase rates had different trends [24]. - The winning yields of some policy - bank bonds were announced [24]. - European and US bond yields rose [25]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell, and the central parity rate rose [26]. - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [26]. Research Report Highlights - Different research institutions had views on the bond market, including expectations of continued loose funds, potential market fluctuations, and investment strategies [27][28]. Today's Reminder - On July 8, many bonds were to be listed, issued, have payments made, or have principal and interest repaid [29]. Stock Market - On Monday, A - share indices had different performances, with some sectors rising and others falling, and the market turnover was 1.23 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose, with significant south - bound capital inflows [31]. - Stock exchanges would release specialized and innovative indices on July 21 [31]. - The three major stock exchanges implemented new quantitative trading rules, which would impact some strategies [31]. - Many fund products showed signs of portfolio adjustment, and the "discount investment" private placement business was heating up [32]. - Jiangsu Runyang set a new A - share listing schedule [33]. - Lens Technology set its IPO price in Hong Kong and would be listed on July 9 [33].