恒生指数今日涨1.72%，报25757.29点，大市成交2927.66亿港元。 披露的南向资金成交股中，腾讯控股、美团－Ｗ、药捷安康－Ｂ分别获净买入22.62亿港元、7.99亿港 元、0.08亿港元；阿里巴巴－Ｗ、中芯国际、比亚迪股份分别遭净卖出6.30亿港元、5.98亿港元、5.20亿 港元。 港股通成交数据披露（沪深合计） 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：智投君 证券简称成交金额净买入额收盘价涨跌幅腾讯控股 0070069.42亿港元22.62亿港元519.00港元3.39%美团－Ｗ 0369014.78亿港元7.99亿港元76.85港元3.15%药捷安康－Ｂ 0261731.48亿港元0.08亿港元92.00港元43.53%大众公用 0163511.67亿港元0.07亿港元3.86港元-3.50%山东墨龙 0056840.41亿港元-0.40亿港元8.30港元-4.60%钧达股份 0286511.76亿港元-0.49亿港元38.52港元6.94%中国海洋石油 0088331.93亿港元-1.37亿港元26.62港元-0.89%小米集团－Ｗ 0181053.02亿港元-1.60亿港元33.42港元3.79%长飞 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that copper's strategic position is becoming increasingly prominent in the energy transition and digitalization process. The global copper supply is structurally tight, while the demand in China's new energy, power equipment, and high - end manufacturing sectors is rising, driving up the demand for high - end copper products and supporting copper prices. In 2026, the copper price is expected to remain high, with a trend of high - level fluctuations, rising first and then falling, and the price center will shift upwards. The global copper market will turn from a slight surplus to a substantial shortage [3][200][202]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Industry Chain Analysis - **Nature and Application of Copper**: Copper has high thermal and electrical conductivity, chemical stability, and strong tensile strength. It is widely used in electronics, electrical, machinery, metallurgy, construction, and decoration industries [16]. - **Copper Industry Chain Structure**: The upstream provides copper concentrate and recycled copper raw materials, with high resource monopoly and high profits; the middle - stream smelts and processes raw materials into refined copper and copper products, with thin profits in general processing and premiums in high - end processing; the downstream is mainly for terminal consumption in power, transportation, electronics, construction, and home appliances, with the power and new energy sectors leading the demand. The waste copper recycling link runs through the entire industry chain [18][20][30]. 3.2 Introduction to Copper Futures and Options Contracts - **Cathode Copper Futures Contract**: The delivery system includes physical delivery (tax - paid delivery and bonded delivery, warehouse delivery, and factory warehouse delivery) and cash - settlement delivery. The delivery period is the two consecutive working days after the last trading day [34]. - **Cathode Copper Options Contract**: The contract types are call options and put options. The exercise method is American. The delivery system includes automatic exercise and exercise matching, and there is a margin system [37][40][41]. 3.3 Review of Copper Price Trends - **Nearly Twenty - Year Price Trend**: Divided into four stages: the recovery start from 2003 to July 2008, the financial crisis and the four - trillion stimulus from August 2008 to 2010, the high - level fluctuation and demand differentiation from 2011 to 2019, and the new energy and AI computing - power drive from 2020 to February 2026 [43][44][48]. - **2025 Price Trend**: Affected by global mining disturbances, macro - loose expectations, and demand structural differentiation, the price fluctuated upwards throughout the year and broke through 100,000 yuan/ton at the end of the year [49]. - **Volume, Open Interest, and Precipitated Funds in 2025**: From 2025 to the end of February 2026, the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper was 258,800 lots, a year - on - year increase of 23.19%; the average daily open interest was 540,600 lots, a year - on - year increase of 14.22%; the average daily precipitated funds were 44.266 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 54.48% [57][58]. 3.4 Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Copper Prices - **US Macroeconomic Impact**: Fed interest rate cuts support copper prices in the medium and long term, and the US dollar index is negatively correlated with copper prices. In 2026, the US economy may peak in the first quarter, and the probability of an economic and financial crisis in summer is relatively high [64][65][69]. - **Chinese Macroeconomic Impact**: China implemented a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025, which provided macro - support for copper prices. Although the overall PPI was negative, the PPI of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry increased month - on - month and year - on - year, supporting copper prices [70][71][76]. 3.5 Copper Supply Analysis - **Global Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production**: In 2025, global mine copper production increased by 1.22%, and refined copper production increased by 3.57%. The growth of copper mine production slowed down significantly, and the supply was structurally tight. Chinese - funded enterprises became the core engine of global copper mine growth [79]. - **Chilean Major Copper Mine Production**: In 2025, the production of major copper mines in Chile slowed down, and the annual production forecast was lowered. The production of El Teniente and Collahuasi copper mines declined significantly [83]. - **China's Copper Mine Import Volume**: In 2025, China's copper ore concentrate imports increased by 7.81%, and refined copper imports decreased by 5.26%. Chinese copper enterprises are actively deploying global resources [90][91]. - **China's Refined Copper Production**: In 2025, China's refined copper production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.89%, ranking first in the world. Enterprises adopted multiple strategies to expand production [92][93]. 3.6 Copper Demand Analysis - **China's Copper Product Output**: In 2025, China's copper product output was 24.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.58%. High - end copper products driven by new energy, power, and high - end manufacturing industries increased [97][99]. - **Power and Communication Infrastructure**: In 2025, China's power generation equipment output increased by 30.43%, and mobile communication base station equipment output increased by 17.68%, driving copper demand [101][108]. - **New Energy Vehicles and Charging Piles**: In 2025, China's new energy vehicle production increased by 25.49%, and the number of charging facilities increased by 49.7%, driving copper demand [109]. - **Industrial Equipment and Electronic Products**: In 2025, China's industrial robot production increased by 38.95%, and integrated circuit production increased by 7.28%, driving copper demand [113][116]. - **White Goods such as Air - conditioners and Refrigerators**: In 2025, China's air - conditioner production increased by 0.37%, and refrigerator production increased by 5.08%. The demand for copper in the refrigerator industry was less marginal [117][122]. - **Copper Product Export Situation**: In 2025, China's refined copper exports increased by 72.97%, and unprocessed copper and copper product exports increased by 30.04%. The export structure changed due to US tariff policies [123][126]. 3.7 Copper Inventory and Position Analysis - **Exchange Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, LME copper inventory first decreased and then increased, COMEX copper inventory increased significantly, and Shanghai copper inventory fluctuated [127][131][136]. - **Domestic Hidden Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, the hidden inventory first decreased and then increased. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone and Jiangsu Province changed significantly [140][141]. - **Copper Market Position Analysis**: In 2025, the net long positions of LME copper investment funds and COMEX copper non - commercial positions increased, and the net position of the top 20 members of Shanghai copper futures changed from net long to net short [144][148][152]. 3.8 Copper Market Arbitrage Analysis - **Cross - Variety Arbitrage**: The gold - copper ratio, silver - copper ratio, and oil - copper ratio were affected by factors such as Fed interest rate cuts, tariff policies, and geopolitical risks [156][160][164]. - **Spot - Futures Arbitrage**: The basis of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated between premium and discount, with a slightly higher number of positive bases [172]. - **Calendar Spread Arbitrage**: The price difference between near - month and next - near - month contracts showed a Contango structure in the first quarter of 2025, a Back structure in the second quarter, and small fluctuations in the second half of the year [174]. 3.9 Copper Options Analysis - **Options Volume and Open Interest**: In 2025, the trading volume of copper options was higher than that in 2024, and the open interest increased steadily. The bullish sentiment was dominant [178][180]. - **Options Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of copper options fluctuated significantly three times in 2025, mainly affected by tariff wars, mine production cuts, and interest rate cut expectations [181][184]. 3.10 Copper Enterprise Futures Hedging Case - **Enterprise Situation**: A comprehensive copper production enterprise conducts futures and derivatives hedging to avoid price fluctuations in raw materials and products [185]. - **Operation Process**: The enterprise locks in the purchase cost of copper through futures hedging operations [186]. 3.11 Copper Price Technical Analysis - **Seasonal Analysis**: The copper price is relatively stable or slightly rebounds at the beginning of each year, reaches a peak in the second quarter, corrects or fluctuates from mid - year to the third quarter, and often shows a tail - rising market in the fourth quarter. The price center has gradually shifted upwards [191]. - **Technical Analysis**: The difference between the resistance level and support level of copper price fluctuated in 2025 - 2026, reflecting changes in market sentiment and volatility [195]. 3.12 2026 Copper Price Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply - Side**: Global copper supply is rigidly constrained due to factors such as insufficient long - term capital expenditure, declining ore grades, and frequent disturbances in major copper - producing countries [199]. - **Demand - Side**: New energy and AI computing - power construction are the main drivers of copper demand growth, and domestic demand is also resilient [200]. - **Price Outlook**: In 2026, the copper price will fluctuate at a high level, rising first and then falling, with a rising price center. The core operating range of LME copper is 11,500 - 13,500 US dollars/ton, and that of Shanghai copper is 98,000 - 108,000 yuan/ton [202]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Strategies include buying on dips, trading in bands, and hedging. Futures investors can buy on dips, upstream and downstream enterprises can lock in costs and profits respectively [202]. 3.13 Appendix: Statistics of Copper - Related Stock Prices and Price Changes The report lists the stock prices, current prices, and price changes of copper - related upstream, mid - stream, and downstream companies as of February 26, 2026 [203][204][205].

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2026 年 3 月 6 日 强于大市 化工行业政府工作报告学 习体会 2026 年 3 月 5 日，李强总理在第十四届全国人民代表大会上作政府工作报告。 《政府工作报告》（以下简称《报告》）总结回顾了 2025 年取得的重大成绩， 并对 2026 年经济社会发展和政府工作作出指示。此外，《报告》介绍，国务 院编制了《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要（草 案）》（以下简称《纲要（草案）》），并提交大会审核。会议在建设现代 化产业体系、加快高水平科技自立自强、推进全国统一大市场建设、推动绿 色转型等方面做出部署，为研判化工行业中长期投资价值与挖掘结构性机会 提供指导。 《报告》中与化工行业相关要点及学习体会 投资建议 截至 3 月 5 日，SW 基础化工市盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 30.14 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今）85.71%分位数；市净率为 2.70 倍，处在历史 78.75%分位数。SW 石油石化市 盈率（TTM 剔除负值）为 17.73 倍，处在历史（2002 年至今）53.36%分位数；市净率 为 1.72 倍，处在历史 57.1 ...

2026 年 03 月 05 日 常津铭（研究员） 证书编号：S0790126010044 相关研究报告 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 《开源量化评论（49）-对近期北向持 续撤离，南下持续抄底的几点思考》 -2022.3.15 开源量化评论（50）-港股优选：技术 面、资金面、基本面》-2022.3.22 《开源量化评论（96）-公募港股投资 变化及港股通优选组合构建》 -2024.7.15 《开源量化评论（112）：基于港交所 CCASS 数 据 的 港 股 投 资 策 略 》 -2025.9.14 港股量化：2 月市场表现不佳 ，3 月组合维持价值配 置 ...

2026 年 3 月 5 日 行业研究 聚焦能源及粮食安全与"双碳"，新兴产业与 AI 赋能化工新格局 ——2026 年"两会"政府工作报告石化化工行业学习体会 基础化工 增持（维持） 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：周家诺 执业证书编号：S0930523070007 021-52523675 zhoujianuo@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -10% 6% 23% 39% 56% 03/25 06/25 08/25 12/25 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 要点 事件： 3 月 5 日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第四次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院 总理李强作政府工作报告。报告回顾了 2025 年工作，提出了"十五五"时期主要 目标和重大任务以及 2026 年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，并部署了 2026 年 政府工作任务。本文将主要围绕能源安全、粮食安全、碳达峰碳中和、反"内卷"、 新兴产业、人工智能+等方面，以石化化工行业视角对政府工作报告要点进行介绍和 阐述学习体会 ...

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来源：新浪基金∞工作室 能源ETF广发（159945）业绩比较基准为中证全指能源指数，管理人为广发基金管理有限公司，基金经 理为姚曦，成立（2015-06-25）以来回报为54.06%，近一个月回报为17.14%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 3月5日，能源ETF广发（159945）开盘跌1.76%，报1.506元。能源ETF广发（159945）重仓股方面，中 国神华开盘跌1.00%，中国石油跌4.46%，中国石化跌2.03%，陕西煤业跌1.03%，中国海油跌1.98%，杰 瑞股份涨2.07%，兖矿能源跌3.59%，中煤能源跌0.99%，广汇能源跌3.20%，山西焦煤跌1.08%。 ...

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1、 十四届全国人大四次会议将于3月5日上午9时开幕，国务院总理李强将作《政府工作报告》，3月12日下午闭 幕，会期8天，共安排3次全体会议。 大会议程共有十一项，包括审议政府工作报告、审查国民经济和社会发展 第十五个五年规划纲要草案、审查2026年国民经济和社会发展计划草案及2026年中央和地方预算草案等。会议 期间将举行3场记者会，分别为经济、民生、外交主题。安排3场"代表通道"和3场"部长通道"采访活动，分别在 开幕会、第二次全体会议和闭幕会的前后举行。 2、 国新办将于3月5日上午11时30分举行吹风会， 请《政府工作报告》起草组负责人、国务院研究室主任沈丹 阳， 《政府工作报告》起草组成员、国务院研究室副主任陈昌盛解读《政府工作报告》，并答记者问。 3、 十四届全国人大四次会议3月4日举行首场新闻发布会。 大会发言人娄勤俭表示，"十五五"规划纲要草案将 提请大会审查批准并公布实施，今年将坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，大力提振消费，制定托育服务法等法律， 党和国家促进民营经济发展的基本方针政策不能变也不会变，中央将出台更多惠港政策措施。 娄勤俭回应国际 热点问题及中国对外政策新动向时表示，中美应相互尊重， ...