Market Overview - The futures market for paraxylene (PX) is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 7330.0 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 2.14% [1] - As of December 24, Asian isomer MX increased by $5 to $723/ton FOB Korea, while Asian PX also rose by $5 to $880/ton FOB Korea and $901/ton CFR China [1] Production and Capacity - As of December 26, China's PX operating rate was at 88.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [1] - The operating rate for Asian PX was reported at 79.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [1] - In terms of imports, South Korea exported 283,000 tons of PX to China in mid-December, an increase of 8,000 tons year-on-year [1] Institutional Insights - Newhu Futures indicates that the PX fundamentals are relatively stable in the short term, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to persist until new capacity comes online before Q3 next year, leading to an optimistic market outlook for PX [3] - Guotai Junan Futures notes a marginal easing on the supply side, with several PX facilities undergoing maintenance or restarting, while domestic PX operating rates remain high at 88.2% [3] - The demand side shows a decrease in PTA operating rates to 70.9%, with several facilities either restarting or reducing output, indicating a potential shift in PX supply and demand dynamics [3]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油：供应过剩担忧下，油价震荡偏弱运行 周度油价先涨后跌，其中WTI 2月合约收盘下跌1.61美元至56.74美元/桶，跌幅2.76。布伦特2月合约收 盘下跌1.60美元至60.64美元/桶，跌幅2.57%。SC2602周五夜盘以432.6元/桶收盘。外盘因圣诞节休市， 随后周五大幅收跌，基本回吐油价周内涨幅。 市场关注俄乌谈判进展，俄方将要求对美乌拟定的这份和平方案作出关键性修改，其中包括对乌克兰军 方施加更多限制条款。该人士表示，俄方将这份二十点和平方案视作后续谈判的起点，但同时认为，这 份方案未能回应俄方提出的诸多核心问题。当前来看，俄乌和平仍需要较长时间来达成，地缘带来的扰 动仍会持续。 国内原油产量方面，2025年我国海洋石油产量约6800万吨，同比增长约250万吨，约占全国石油增产量 的八成。2025年我国持续加大海洋勘探力度，海上油气增储上产资源基础不断夯实。截至今年三季度 末，中国海域获5个新发现，成功评价22个含油气构造，11个新项目投产。在北部湾盆地潜山领域实现 重大突破，成功发现我国海上首个深层—超深层碎屑岩亿吨级油田惠州 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 需求 PTA装置开工率下降至70.9%（-2.3%），英力士110万吨，逸盛宁波220万吨重启，逸盛新材料降负，1月检修，新凤鸣300万吨装置短停。 观点 PX供增需减。但考虑到聚酯持续高开工，PX供应紧平衡的格局暂时无法证伪，PX预计维持高位震荡市。节前注意仓位管理。 估值 PXN300美元/吨，石脑油负反馈，PXN持续扩大。PX-MX韩国FOB价差157美金/吨（+10），美国PX-MX价133美金/吨（+50），山东PX- MX价2020（+150）元/吨。 策略 1）单边：7000-7800 2）跨期：5-9正套 3）跨品种：多PX空PF/PR 风险 地缘 本周PTA观点总结：单边高位震荡市 | 供应 | PTA装置开工率下降至70.9%（-2.3%），英力士110万吨，逸盛宁波220万吨重启，逸盛新 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and analyses on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, market dynamics, and suggestions for each product. It also mentions the trend strength of each futures product, which ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs a. Aromatics and Polyester Chain - **PX**: Unilateral oscillation. PXN continues to expand. Do not chase high in the short - term, go long on dips. 5 - 9 positive spread. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is a certain supply gap under high polyester operation [12]. - **PTA**: Unilateral high - level oscillation. Hold long PX and short PTA in the 05 contract. There may be an opportunity for PTA processing fee expansion if there are certain PX warehouse receipts in the 01 contract [12]. - **MEG**: Price hits a new low, with a weak trend. Go short on the 5 - 9 spread at high levels. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases in the medium term [13][14]. b. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: Oscillating. Market is affected by inventory and supply factors. The increase in Qingdao inventory slows down, and raw materials may stop falling and stabilize [15][18]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Range - bound. Fundamental pressure exists, but valuation provides support. Raw materials are expected to oscillate [19][22]. c. Asphalt - **Asphalt**: Weak oscillation. Production increases slightly this week, factory inventory rises, and social inventory decreases. The market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors [23][30]. d. Plastics - **LLDPE**: Basis weakens, and upstream selling pressure continues to be released. The market is affected by raw materials, supply, and demand. Pay attention to the supply - demand pressure in the medium term [31][32]. - **PP**: Medium - term trend still faces pressure. Supply is relatively high, and demand peaks have passed. Short - term market should not be chased short, but the downward pressure remains [33][34]. e. Others - **Caustic Soda**: Trend still faces pressure. High production and inventory persist, and demand is weak. Supply pressure is large in winter, and cost support is limited [37][39]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating. The market shows narrow - range consolidation and differentiation between futures and spot. The core contradiction lies in the game between supply contraction expectations and high inventory and weak demand [42][46]. - **Glass**: Flat glass prices are stable. Supply eases slightly, but rigid demand is still weak [47][48]. - **Methanol**: Under pressure. Short - term weak operation, medium - term high supply pressure on the 01 contract. There is a possibility of marginal improvement in the first quarter of 2026 [50][53]. - **Urea**: Weak operation. Warehouse receipts increase significantly. Fundamental drivers are neutral, and there are policy and cost support and pressure [55][57]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation. Pure benzene market oscillates, and styrene supply pressure is not large, with port inventory slightly decreasing [58][59]. - **Soda Ash**: Spot market changes little. Supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is average [61][62]. - **LPG**: Short - term demand is strong, but medium - and long - term is under pressure. Propylene supply is expected to increase, and upward driving force is limited [64]. - **PVC**: Trend is weak. Supply is high, demand is weak, and short - term should not be chased short. There is a possibility of supply reduction in the future [72]. - **Fuel Oil**: Continues to rebound and may temporarily get out of the weak situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil weakens in the short - term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market is temporarily stable [75]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Oscillating. Affected by negotiation and freight factors, the 2602 contract is an oscillating market in the medium term, and the 2604 contract has a relatively high probability of short - selling [87][88]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Medium - term pressure exists. Short - sell the processing fee at high levels [90][91]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Wait - and - see. Market prices are stable, demand is weak, and industry operation is at a high level [93][96]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillation. Weak current situation but strong future expectations. Inventory pressure is high in December, and supply is expected to contract after January [98][99].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating market with cost support. The supply is likely to shrink, and it's recommended to hold long PX and short BZ positions, and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Also, pay attention to 1 - 5 reverse spreads on the 01 contract. [2][8] - PTA will be in a unilateral high - level oscillating market, supported by PX at the cost end. It's advised to hold long PX and short PTA positions and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be cautious of the negative feedback in the industrial chain due to early terminal holidays from late December to early January. [2][8] - MEG shows a weak trend with prices hitting new lows. The willingness to hold positions is decreasing, and the upside space remains unopened. It's recommended to focus on monthly spread positive spreads and exit long MEG and short PTA positions. [2][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **PX**: On December 4, 2025, PX price fell. A January Asian spot was traded at $844, and the valuation was $845 per ton, down $3 from December 3. The late - session naphtha price remained strong, with the January MOPJ currently estimated at $552 per ton CFR. [4] - **PTA**: This week, there were basically no changes in PTA devices in mainland China. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 73.7%, and the operating rate calculated by PTA device daily output/(domestic PTA capacity/365) was around 79.3%. [4] - **MEG**: A 1 million - ton/year MEG device in Jiangsu has been shut down recently, and the shutdown will last until the second quarter of 2026. A 1.1 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol device in the US reduced its load to around 70%, and a 360,000 - ton/year device is still under maintenance with no clear restart time. [4] Futures and Spot Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6906, 4724, 3826, 6268, and 452.6 respectively. The price changes were - 2, - 6, 4, - 16, and 4.5, with percentage changes of - 0.03%, - 0.13%, 0.10%, - 0.25%, and 1.00%. [3] - **Spot**: The previous day's prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were $845.33 per ton, 4685 yuan per ton, 3813 yuan per ton, $559.75 per ton, and $64.36 per barrel respectively, showing price changes of - 3, - 20, - 16, - 2.25, and - 0.06. [3] - **Spot Processing Fees**: The previous day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 265.33, 159.83, 226.6, 79.25, and - 4.23 respectively, with changes of 5, - 39.41, 9.65, 8.6, and 0.11. [3] Industry Load and Production and Sales - **MEG**: As of December 4, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 72.93% (down 0.2% from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 72.58% (up 0.55% from the previous period). Since October 1, 2025, the ethylene glycol production capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 30.075 million tons, and the total production capacity of syngas - to - ethylene glycol is 10.96 million tons. [6] - **Polyester**: A 200,000 - ton polyester device in Wujiang has been under maintenance since the beginning of this month, expected to last for one month. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 91.6%. On December 4, the production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average production - to - sales ratio of 30% - 40% by 3:45 pm. The production and sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were also weak, with an average production - to - sales ratio of 44% by 3:00 pm. [6][7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is 0, PTA is 0, and MEG is - 1, indicating a neutral trend for PX and PTA and a weak - downward trend for MEG. [7] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Hold long PX and short BZ positions and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Pay attention to 1 - 5 reverse spreads on the 01 contract. The domestic operating rate is maintained at 88.5% (- 1%), and the PX load is expected to decline due to planned maintenance of some devices. [8] - **PTA**: Hold long PX and short PTA positions and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. The PTA load is adjusted to 73.7%, and the polyester operating rate remains high at 91.6%. The price will be in a high - level oscillating market but beware of the negative feedback in the industrial chain. [8] - **MEG**: Focus on monthly spread positive spreads and exit long MEG and short PTA positions. The operating rate has dropped to 73%, but with new device commissions approaching, the willingness to hold positions has decreased, and the price has hit a new low. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: The PXN continues to widen, with a high - level volatile market. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on BZ and the 5 - 9 calendar spread. PX supply is expected to contract, and demand from PTA is rising. PX - MX spread widens, and PXN has risen significantly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance under high profits [1][4]. - PTA: It is in a single - sided high - level volatile market. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA and the 5 - 9 calendar spread. Be vigilant against the negative feedback in the industrial chain due to early terminal holidays from late December to early January [1][5]. - MEG: Hold the position of going long on MEG and short on PTA. The unilateral price fluctuates in the range of 3800 - 4000, with the upside space not yet opened. Pay attention to the positive calendar spread. Overall supply of ethylene glycol is tightening, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Futures**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures are 6908, 4730, 3822, 6284, and 448.1 respectively, with changes of - 4, - 22, - 55, - 20, and - 5.7 and percentage changes of - 0.06%, - 0.46%, - 1.42%, - 0.32%, and - 1.26% [2]. - **Futures Month - spreads**: PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 closing prices are - 36, - 66, - 104, - 114, and 0.3 respectively, with changes of - 6, 0, 1, - 14, and 0.8 [2]. - **Spot**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, Naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent are 848.33 dollars/ton, 4705 yuan/ton, 3829 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, and 64.18 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 2.34, - 15, - 47, - 5.25, and - 0.04 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - Naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread are 265.33, 159.83, 226.6, 79.25, and - 4.23 respectively, with changes of 5, - 39.41, 9.65, 8.6, and 0.11 [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: The price of naphtha rebounded in the late session. The PX price declined today, with two January Asian spot transactions at 847 and one February Asian spot at 849. The estimated PX price is 848 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars from yesterday [3]. - **MEG**: The price center of ethylene glycol declined, and market negotiation was average. The spot price of ethylene glycol dropped to below 3810 yuan/ton, and the external market price trended weakly. There were transactions for near - term and end - of - December/early - January shipments [3]. Polyester - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were slightly differentiated, with an average sales rate estimated to be below 40% by 3:30 pm. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 47% by 3:00 pm [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **PX**: Domestic operating rate is maintained at 88.5% (- 1%), with Sinochem Quanzhou under maintenance. GS and Zhejiang Petrochemical have future maintenance plans, so PX supply is expected to shrink. PTA operating rate has increased to 73.7% (+ 1.6%) [4]. - **PTA**: The PTA load has been adjusted to 73.7% (+ 1.6%) due to the restart and load increase of some devices. Polyester operating rate remains high at 91.5% (+ 0.2%) [5]. - **MEG**: Coal - based ethylene glycol load is expected to further increase, and oil - based device (Shenghong Refining 100 - million - ton device) has a maintenance plan. Iranian overseas devices have been shut down, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: The PXN continues to widen and is in a high - level volatile market. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on BZ, and engage in a 5 - 9 calendar spread. There is an expected contraction in PX supply due to planned maintenance, while PTA demand is rising. However, the end of the overseas gasoline squeeze and the decline in MX blending fuel may impact PX valuation [1][4]. - PTA: It is in a high - level volatile market. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA, and engage in a 5 - 9 calendar spread. The cost is supported by PX, but there may be a negative feedback from the terminal market from late December to early January [1][5]. - MEG: The holding willingness is decreasing, and the price fluctuates in the range of 3800 - 4000. Hold the strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA. The overall supply of ethylene glycol is tightening, with expected declines in imports and port inventories [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Futures Prices**: PX, PTA, and MEG futures prices showed different changes. PX closed at 6912 with a - 0.26% change, PTA at 4752 with a - 0.21% change, and MEG at 3877 with a - 0.13% change [2]. - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR China was at 850.67 dollars/ton, PTA in East China was at 4720 yuan/ton, and MEG spot was at 3876 yuan/ton. PX and PTA prices increased, while MEG decreased [2]. - **Processing Fees**: PX - naphtha spread was 265.33 dollars/ton, PTA processing fee was 159.83 yuan/ton. The PX - naphtha spread increased, while the PTA processing fee decreased [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: The prices of toluene and xylene in East China were stable in the afternoon. The PX price rose, with a 1 - month Asian spot trading at 849 dollars/ton [2]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China plans to shut down for maintenance next week for about 10 days [3]. - **Polyester**: The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of about 50% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers declined moderately, with an average sales rate of 61% by 3:00 pm [3][4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Hold the long PX and short BZ strategy and 5 - 9 calendar spread. PX supply is expected to shrink due to planned maintenance, while PTA demand is increasing. The PX - MX spread is widening, and PXN has risen significantly [4]. - **PTA**: Hold the long PX and short PTA strategy and 5 - 9 calendar spread. The cost is supported by PX, but there may be a negative feedback from the terminal market [5]. - **MEG**: The price fluctuates between 3800 - 4000, and focus on the calendar spread. Hold the long MEG and short PTA strategy. The overall supply of ethylene glycol is tightening, with expected declines in imports and port inventories [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Bullish on PX and bearish on BZ, hold the long PX - short BZ position, and maintain the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position [4] - PTA: Hold the long PX - short PTA position, and maintain the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position [5] - MEG: Hold the long MEG - short PTA position, focus on the calendar spread long position [5] 2. Core Views - The PXN spread of PX continues to widen, and the market is in a high - level volatile state; PTA is in a high - level volatile state; hold the long MEG - short PTA position [1] - PX supply is expected to shrink, while PTA demand has increased, and the PX - MX spread has widened; PTA prices are supported by PX at the cost end and are in a high - level volatile state, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain; MEG supply is tightening, and the price is oscillating in the range of 3800 - 4000, with the upside space not yet opened [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures yesterday were 6830, 4700, 3885, 6250, and 453.9 respectively, with daily changes of 112, 68, 12, 88, and 6.3, and daily changes of 1.67%, 1.47%, 0.31%, 1.43%, and 1.41% respectively [2] - **Futures Calendar Spreads**: The closing prices of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 calendar spreads yesterday were - 28, - 52, - 93, - 110, and - 0.5 respectively, with daily changes of 8, 2, - 20, - 30, and - 1 respectively [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were 836.33 dollars/ton, 4635 yuan/ton, 3879 yuan/ton, 571.5 dollars/ton, and 64.44 dollars/barrel respectively, with daily changes of 10, 20, - 10, 5.5, and 0.15 respectively [2] - **Spot Processing Margins**: The spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil yesterday were 260.33, 199.25, 226.6, 79.25, and - 4.34 respectively, with daily changes of - 11.04, - 16.67, 9.65, 8.6, and 0 respectively [2] 3.2 Market Dynamics - US textile and apparel imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year in August. In September 2025, the total retail sales decreased by 0.66% month - on - month and increased by 5.42% year - on - year after seasonal adjustment, and the core retail sales decreased by 0.49% month - on - month and increased by 5.72% year - on - year. In October, the total retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month and 5% year - on - year, and the core retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month and 4.89% year - on - year [2] - Japan's textile and apparel imports in September were 477.893 billion yen, a month - on - month increase of 13.56% and a year - on - year increase of 6.62%. In October, it was 473.239 billion yen, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97% and a year - on - year increase of 3.03%. From January to September, the total imports were 3,587.466 billion yen, a year - on - year increase of 3.51%, and from January to October, it was 4,060.705 billion yen, a year - on - year increase of 3.45% [3] - The EU's textile and apparel imports in September were 11.282 billion euros, a month - on - month increase of 10.93% and a year - on - year increase of 0.32%. From January to September, the total imports were 93.165 billion euros, a year - on - year increase of 6.67% [3] - The UK's textile and apparel imports in September were 2.016 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 2.57% and a year - on - year increase of 12.87%. From January to September, the total imports were 16.167 billion pounds, a year - on - year increase of 6.06% [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX is - 1, indicating a bearish view; the trend intensity of PTA is - 1, also indicating a bearish view; the trend intensity of MEG is 0, indicating a neutral view [4] 3.4 Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Hold the long PX - short BZ position and the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position. The domestic PX operating rate remains at 88.5% (- 1%), and the supply is expected to shrink due to planned maintenance of some devices. The PTA operating rate has increased, and the PX - MX spread has widened [4] - **PTA**: Hold the long PX - short PTA position and the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position. The PTA operating rate has increased to 73.7% (+1.6%), the polyester operating rate remains high at 91.5% (+0.2%), and the price is in a high - level volatile state, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the industrial chain [5] - **MEG**: Hold the long MEG - short PTA position, focus on the calendar spread long position. The coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate has increased to 72% (+6.2%), the overall supply is tightening due to planned maintenance of some devices, and the port inventory is expected to decline. The price is oscillating in the range of 3800 - 4000, with the upside space not yet opened [5]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of the polyester industry, covering PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products. It includes supply, demand, valuation, and inventory information, as well as trading strategies [3][4][5] Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - Domestic PX drives up the overseas market, and the PXN spread has strengthened significantly. The gasoline market has ended the squeeze and started to build inventories. The disproportionation unit is in a loss, and the PX - MX spread remains high [15][22][23] Supply - The domestic PX operating rate is at a historical high, with an operating rate of 89.5% (+2.7%) this week. The Asian PX operating rate is 79.7% (+1.2%). Some Korean and Japanese devices have maintenance or production reduction plans [42][43] Demand - The PTA operating rate has continued to decline to 72% (-3.7%), reducing the demand for PX [3][4] Inventory - In October, the monthly inventory of PX accumulated by 100,000 tons to 4.02 million tons [65] Strategy - The upside space is limited. For cross - varieties, short PXN and long MEG short PX [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - The inventory has continued to accumulate, but the valuation and monthly spread have risen following PX. The processing fee has remained at a low level for a long time [71][81] Supply - The PTA operating rate has declined to 72% (-3.7%). Some devices have stopped or extended the maintenance time, and the weekly output is about 1.41 million tons [4][83] Demand - The polyester device operating rate is 91.3%, with a rigid demand for PTA of 1.33 million tons. Since November, the new orders from the terminal have declined, but the rigid demand still exists [4][5] Inventory - The inventory has slightly accumulated and shifted to the delivery warehouse [106] Strategy - Operate in the range of 4500 - 4800. For cross - periods, conduct a reverse spread for 1 - 5. For cross - varieties, long MEG short PTA [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Valuation - The monthly spread has declined, the basis has weakened, and the unilateral price trend is weak. The relative valuation has continued to decline, and the device profit is in a loss [120][124][126] Supply - The operating rate has dropped to 70.67% (-1.9%). Multiple coal - chemical devices have short - stopped, and some devices have maintenance plans in the future. The domestic weekly supply is about 405,000 tons [5][129] Demand - The polyester device operating rate remains around 91.3%, with a rigid demand for MEG of 520,000 tons. The new orders from the terminal have declined, but the rigid demand still exists [5] Inventory - The supply - demand balance sheet has improved, and the expected inventory accumulation rate has decreased [139] Strategy - Operate in the range of 3800 - 4000. For cross - periods, conduct a reverse spread for 1 - 5. For cross - varieties, long MEG short PX [5] Group 5: Polyester Analysis Production - The polyester operating rate is 91.3% (+0.8%). In 2025, the polyester production has increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and the growth rate in 2026 is expected to be flat at 5 - 6% [143][150] Export - From January to October, the total polyester export was 12 million tons, +15.2%. The exports of various polyester products have increased to varying degrees [151] Inventory - The downstream sales are sluggish, and the inventory has started to rise [152]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].