| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一价格表现偏弱,因为政策端在竞价销售大豆,使得市场供应端的压力边际增加,而需求端表现疲弱。豆一 和豆二价差绝对值不高，价差现阶段处于盘整的状态。进口大豆方面表现偏强，主要是美国生物柴油政策提振 了豆油和大豆市场。中国方面11月之后的大豆船期采购进度偏低，市场预期明年一季度大豆供应更加偏紧，这 种预 ...

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-8-25 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 目 录 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：现货看涨及收储提振，期价待反弹沽空 u 期现端：截至8月22日，全国现货价格13.67元/公斤，较上周跌0.03元/公斤；河南猪价13.61元/公斤，较上周价格上涨0.12元/公斤；生猪2511收至13840元/吨，较上周下跌105 元/吨；11合约基差-230元/吨，较上周跌15元/吨。周度生猪价格窄幅调整，随着猪价下跌后，养殖端压栏惜售、二次育肥进场增加，支撑猪价止跌反弹，但需求跟进有限，供应 充足大背景下，猪价反弹受限回落；主力11因现货表现不及预期，偏弱调整，随着8月21日华储网公布8月25日猪肉收储1万吨，盘面情绪支撑小幅反弹，11相对基准地河南仍升水， 基差小跌。周末现货稳中偏强。 u 供应端：能繁母猪存栏2024年5-11月缓增，虽然2024年12月开始产能有所去化，但行业预期利润仍存，去化幅度有限，2025年5-6月产能再度增加，7月小降，处于均衡区间上限， 整体母猪产能充裕，叠加生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，往后推 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Buy with Caution**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, and Live Pigs [1] - **Hold for Observation**: Soybean, Egg [1] - **Buy Opportunistically**: Soybean Oil and Palm Oil [1][4] Core Views - Short - term focus on weather, policies, and import soybean performance for domestic soybeans; cautiously optimistic about the soybean meal market; consider buying soybean and palm oil at low prices; maintain the judgment of short - term rebound in rapeseed futures prices; and expect Dalian corn futures to continue to be weak at the bottom [2][3][4][6][7] Summary by Category Soybean - Domestic soybean prices recovered quickly after a sharp drop, with a provincial reserve rotation auction of 0.65 tons this Friday. The weather is generally favorable for growth, and the price gap with imported soybeans has rebounded. In the US, soybean pod numbers in some states are positive, and the US Soybean Association urges to reopen the Chinese market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The latest good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 68%, higher than expected. Future weeks may see less rain in the US. Domestically, soybean meal spot prices have risen, and the supply of imported beans in the fourth quarter is uncertain. The market is cautiously optimistic about soybean meal [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US crop inspections show positive soybean pod numbers. The market is worried about bio - fuel exemptions in the US, which has pressured soybean oil prices. Domestically, soybean and palm oil have seen a position - reducing correction. Consider buying at low prices in the long - term [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal is in a weak rebound, and rapeseed oil has fallen with the vegetable oil sector but with the smallest decline. The supply of Australian rapeseed is tight before the new crop arrives in November. A rapeseed oil trading event involving 4574 tons will be held this Friday [6] Corn - As of August 19, 15 auctions of imported corn by Sinograin totaled about 347.6 tons, with a low成交 rate of 36.38%. New - season Xinjiang corn has affected market expectations, and Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures have weakened with increased positions. Spot prices are slightly stronger, but secondary fattening is cautious. The supply of live pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year. It is recommended to hedge at high prices [8] Eggs - Egg futures have rebounded slightly, while spot prices are weak. In the medium - term, high production capacity may lead to price drops. Short - term attention should be paid to capital and seasonal factors [9]

生猪养殖月度跟踪：7 月猪价冲高回落，关注产能去化 20250819 摘要 近期生猪行业的整体情况如何？ 近期生猪行业处于价格探底阶段，猪价创下约一年半以来的新低。这一现象主 要由于被动去产能、政策引导下的持续减产能及环保政策收紧等因素所致。7 月份，仔猪、活猪和猪肉的均价分别为 35.7 元/公斤、34.91 元/公斤和 25.37 元/公斤，同比下降 18.65%、20.05%和 12.8%。环比来看，仔猪价格下降 4.09%，活猪和猪肉价格则分别小幅上涨 1.72%和 0.31%。截至 8 月上旬， 生猪出栏均价回落至 13.82 元/公斤，并在最近一周进一步回落。 截至 2025 年 8 月 8 日，自繁自养生猪头均盈利 45.13 元，外购仔猪持 续亏损，每头亏损 134.14 元，表明自繁自养模式维持小幅盈利，而外 购仔猪亏损进一步扩大。 2025 年 7 月牧原、温氏、新希望、正邦等主要生猪养殖企业出栏量环 比变动分别为-10.4%、5.24%、2.07%、-2.16%，17 家上市企业合 计出栏 1,581 万头，环比下滑 5.3%，但正邦和东瑞销量同比翻倍。 2025 年 7 月牧原、温氏、 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Egg Weekly Report 2025 - 8 - 18 [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises continued to decline, the culling age fluctuated slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs oscillated at a high level, and the price of chicks continued to drop [3] - The high price difference between large and small eggs and the relatively strong price of culled chickens indicate more new additions and fewer culls, which may suppress the price elasticity in the traditional consumption peak season [3] - This year, the capacity reduction is insufficient, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is premature, and the egg - laying rate decline due to high temperature is getting smaller, so the rebound momentum in the peak season is limited [3] - This week, the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas decreased slightly, and the inventory in the circulation and production links also decreased slightly [3] - Traders are afraid of price drops, purchase cautiously, and the overall sales in the production areas are a bit slow [3] - The breeding profit has rebounded slightly and is near the break - even point, and the egg - feed ratio is at the lowest level in the same period of the past 4 years [3] - The egg futures contracts in the delivery month are slightly at a discount, while the other contracts are slightly at a premium [3] - The price difference between the near and far - term egg futures has dropped significantly and is at a moderately high level [3] - Due to the change of the main contract of egg futures, the net short position of institutions in September decreased, while that in October increased [3] - Under the background of high inventory, the near - term supply pressure is large, and the far - term situation will gradually improve with the strengthening of capacity reduction expectations [3] - Before the capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength of egg futures is expected to continue, and it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of egg 9 - 1 [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Sub - sections include spot price (comparison between main production area price and main sales area price), egg basis (basis of each egg futures contract), egg price difference (price difference of each egg futures contract), and futures institutional net position (long - to - short ratio of institutional positions in September and October egg futures contracts) [4][7][10][13] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as egg - laying hen inventory and its structure, culling situation (culled chicken price and average culling age), replenishment situation (price of commercial egg - laying chicks and hatching egg utilization rate), and size - code situation (prices of large and small eggs and seasonal chart of price difference) [16][18][20][23] Demand Analysis - Includes发货量&销量 (sales volume in main sales areas and shipping volume in main production areas), inventory (production - link inventory and circulation - link inventory), and substitutes (seasonal charts of egg - to - pork price ratio and egg - to - vegetable price ratio) [26][28][31] Profit Analysis - Comprises breeding profit (current profit vs. expected profit and comprehensive egg - laying hen breeding profit) and egg - feed ratio (egg - feed ratio and its break - even point, and seasonal chart of egg - feed ratio) [34][37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Insights - In July, pig prices peaked and then declined, with the average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork at 35.73 CNY/kg, 14.91 CNY/kg, and 25.37 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of -4.09%, +1.72%, and +0.31% [1][16] - The supply side saw a significant impact from the supply rhythm, with a notable increase in the number of pigs being sold by smallholders, leading to supply pressure [19] - The demand side faced challenges due to weak consumption during the summer heat, resulting in sluggish sales for slaughterhouses [19] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a slight increase in the number of breeding sows, indicating a potential stabilization in supply [19][24] - Policy measures aimed at reducing production capacity and controlling weight have begun to show effects, with expectations for a gradual reduction in industry capacity [24][25] Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand - July pig prices were influenced by supply dynamics, with a peak followed by a decline due to increased selling by smallholders and controlled sales by larger farms [19] - The average price of live pigs fell to 13.82 CNY/kg by August 11 [1][16] Production Capacity Trends - The number of breeding sows was reported at 40.43 million, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.02% [19][24] - Data from various sources indicated a halt in growth for breeding sows for the first time since February [19][24] Policy and Regulatory Environment - Recent policies have focused on "reducing production capacity, controlling weight, and regulating secondary fattening," which are expected to stabilize the market in the long term [24][25] - Stricter environmental regulations are anticipated to pressure smaller farms, leading to the elimination of outdated production capacity [25] Market Performance of Listed Companies - In July, the average sales prices for major companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and New Hope Liuhe showed slight increases, with prices at 14.30 CNY/kg, 14.58 CNY/kg, and 14.44 CNY/kg respectively [9][32] - The total sales volume for listed companies decreased by 5.30% month-on-month, with notable declines in companies like Muyuan Foods [33][36] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The cost of production is a critical factor, with Muyuan Foods reporting a cost of 11.90 CNY/kg in July, indicating a competitive advantage over peers [41][42] - The profitability of listed companies is expected to remain strong, with significant year-on-year growth in net profits anticipated for the first half of 2025 [44][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [46][47]. Core Insights - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an increase of 1.32% from August 1 to August 14, 2025, lagging behind the index by approximately 1.08 percentage points [10][11]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with only the fishery sector showing a negative return of -0.64%. The agricultural product processing, feed, planting, animal health, and breeding sectors saw increases of 6.53%, 1.88%, 0.97%, 0.93%, and 0.38%, respectively [11][12]. - Approximately 57% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period [12]. Industry Data Summary - **Pig Farming**: - The average price of external three yuan pigs fell from 14.21 CNY/kg to 13.82 CNY/kg between August 1 and August 14, 2025. - The cost of corn was 2394.12 CNY/ton, showing a recent decline, while soybean meal was priced at 3126 CNY/ton, which increased recently [21][23]. - Profit for self-bred pigs was 28.85 CNY/head, while the profit for purchased piglets was -157.05 CNY/head, both showing a decline compared to the previous week [26]. - **Poultry Farming**: - The average price of broiler chicks was 3.58 CNY/chick, which continued to rise, while the average price for layer chicks was 3.6 CNY/chick, showing a slight decline [28]. - The average price of white feather broilers was 7.2 CNY/kg, which increased, and the profit for white feather broiler farming was 1.03 CNY/chick, also showing an upward trend [32]. - **Aquaculture**: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp was 22.38 CNY/kg, showing a slight decline, while the average price for carp was 15.69 CNY/kg, which increased [34]. Company Insights - The report highlights several companies to watch, including: - Muyuan Foods (002714), noted for its cost, scale, and integration advantages in pig farming [48]. - Haida Group (002311), recognized as a leading feed company with expected market share growth [48]. - Shennong Development (002299), a leader in the white feather broiler industry with advantages in breeding and food business expansion [48]. - Reap Bio (300119), a leader in the animal health industry with a growing product matrix for pet health [48]. - Zhongchong Co. (002891), a top player in the pet food sector with strong domestic growth and recovering export business [48].

Core Viewpoint - A production halt by CATL has triggered a significant surge in the lithium carbonate market, with futures prices reaching a three-month high [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On August 11, lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit, rising by 8% to 81,000 yuan per ton [3]. - The halt in production at CATL's Yichun project is interpreted as the first substantial reduction signal in the lithium salt industry, which has been experiencing insufficient capacity reduction [3][4]. - The halt coincides with a traditional peak season for inventory demand, leading to a sharp rebound in lithium carbonate futures prices [3]. Group 2: Stock Market Impact - The surge in lithium carbonate futures has led to a collective rise in A-share lithium mining stocks, with companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium hitting their daily limits [5][6]. - Hong Kong and overseas lithium mining stocks also saw significant gains, with Ganfeng Lithium rising over 20% [7]. Group 3: Supply Chain Concerns - The Yichun project is crucial in the lithium supply chain, and a production halt exceeding two weeks could disrupt downstream inventory plans [7]. - There are concerns about potential chain reactions, as seven other lithium mica mines are also facing certificate renewals, which could impact 24% of domestic lithium production [10]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - Despite the production halts, the overall lithium carbonate output remains high, and the impact of the stoppages is considered manageable [11]. - New lithium extraction capacities from salt lakes are expected to come online, which may offset some supply disruptions [11].

Investment Rating - The overall industry rating is "Positive" for the agriculture sector, indicating expected returns above the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [6][51]. Core Views 1. **Livestock Industry Chain** - The swine market is experiencing rising epidemic risks and policy support, which is expected to enhance the motivation for capacity reduction. The average price of live pigs is currently 13.71 CNY/kg, down 0.62 CNY from last week, while the average price for 15 kg piglets is 31.24 CNY/kg, down 1.48 CNY [5][19]. - The operating rate of large-scale slaughterhouses has increased to 31.9%, up 0.36 percentage points from last week and 7.26 percentage points year-on-year. The total output of pigs from 16 listed companies reached 100.75 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 16.9% [5][19]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 40.43 million heads, down 370,000 from the peak last year. The average profit per head for self-bred pigs is 45 CNY, an increase of 2 CNY from last week [6][20]. 2. **Poultry Industry** - Chicken prices are experiencing fluctuations, with the average price for broiler chickens at 3.54 CNY/lb, up 0.13 CNY from last week. The average price for white feather chickens is 13.9 CNY/kg, up 0.2 CNY [21][23]. - The industry is at a historically high capacity level, with limited imports in the first seven months of the year. The profitability per chicken has turned positive at 0.62 CNY [21][23]. - The yellow chicken market is also seeing price declines, with average prices at 9.77 CNY/kg for Lihua yellow chicken, down 0.02 CNY from last month [23][24]. 3. **Seed and Planting Industry** - The seed industry is benefiting from ongoing policy optimization and the promotion of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The long-term investment value of leading seed companies is highlighted as they are at historical low valuations [10][24]. - Grain prices are experiencing short-term adjustments but are expected to rise in the medium term due to reduced imports and adverse weather conditions. The average purchase price for corn is 2441 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY from last week [12][24]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Buy [3] - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. - Buy [3] - Suqian Agricultural Development Co., Ltd. - Buy [3]

年猪数据日 | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 农产品研究中心 名則 - 杨璐琳 | | 从业资格号:F3042528 | 2025/08/08 | | | 地区 | 2025/08/07 | | 涨跌值 | 升贴水(修改后) | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | | 河南 | 13.86 | | -0.14 | 0 - 12 | -10 | -200 | | | 湖南 | 13.66 | | -0. 12 | 100 | -310-37 | -180 | | | 湖北 | 13.64 | | -0.15012 | 0 | -230 | +2-210 | | | 安徽 | 13.87 | | -0.21 | 300 | -300 | -270 | | | 江西 | 13.84 | | -0. 1 | 52 100 | -130 | -160 | | | 山西 | 13.61 | | -0. 1 | -400 | 140 | -160 | | | ...