农林牧渔 农业行业周报 同步大市-A（维持) | 首选股票 | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 002311.SZ | 海大集团 | 买入-A | | 002299.SZ | 圣农发展 | 买入-B | | 300498.SZ | 温氏股份 | 买入-B | | 301498.SZ | 乖宝宠物 | 增持-A | | 002891.SZ | 中宠股份 | 增持-A | | 605296.SH | 神农集团 | 增持-B | | 603477.SH | 巨星农牧 | 增持-B | 【山证农林牧渔】猪价在旺季后或存回 调 压 力 - 农 业 行 业 周 报 （ 260202- 260208） 2026.2.10 【山证农林牧渔】猪价近期旺季活跃， 旺季后或仍承压-行业周报（260126- 260201） 2026.2.3 陈振志 执业登记编码：S0760522030004 邮箱：chenzhenzhi@sxzq.com 徐风 执业登记编码：S0760519110003 邮箱：xufeng@sxzq.com 2026 年 3 月 4 日 行业研究/行业周报 农林牧渔行业近一年市场表现 本周 ...

Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - The report emphasizes the dual strategy opportunities in the pig farming industry, highlighting the importance of breeding sows and farming efficiency, with a projected decline in pig prices in 2026 but potential for rebound [1] - As of February 11, 2026, the pig price was 12.75 CNY/kg, up 2.7% from the end of 2025, but the industry is facing losses, with self-breeding and purchased piglet farming profits at -159.65 CNY/head and 20.83 CNY/head respectively [3] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality pig companies with significant cost control, healthy financials, and reasonable valuations amid expected industry capacity reductions due to ongoing losses [3] Group 2: Agricultural Trade and CPI - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with food prices down 0.7%, and pork prices down 13.7% year-on-year [1] - In December 2025, China's agricultural imports totaled 18.49 billion USD, up 1.66% year-on-year, while exports were 10.57 billion USD, up 0.29%, resulting in a trade deficit of 7.92 billion USD, an increase of 3.54% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Pet Food Industry - In December 2025, China's pet food exports amounted to 906 million CNY, down 2.91% year-on-year, with export volume increasing by 15.49% but the average export price dropping by 15.93% [4] - For the entire year of 2025, pet food exports totaled 10.102 billion CNY, down 4.1% year-on-year, with export volume at 361.3 thousand tons, up 7.8%, and an average export price of 27.96 CNY/kg, down 11% [4] Group 4: Agricultural Index Performance - In February, the agricultural index underperformed the CSI 300, with a decline of 0.14%, while the breeding industry saw a relative increase of 1.02%, contrasting with declines in agricultural processing and animal health sectors [2]

证券研究报告：农林牧渔|行业周报 发布时间：2026-03-03 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 2961.5 | | 52 | 周最高 | 3158.8 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2478.53 | 行业相对指数表现 -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-10 2025-12 2026-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《现代化为矛，稳定生产为盾》 - 2026.02.11 农林牧渔行业报告 （2026.2.24-2026.2.28） 猪价创新低 ⚫ 行情回顾：上涨 节后第一周，农林牧渔（申万）指数大幅涨 4.01%，在申万 31 个 一级行业中排名第 14。农业子板块中，除水产养殖外，其余子板块均 上涨。其中节前跌幅较大的种植业、种子等板块反弹较多；而养殖板 块则继 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector**: The consumer sector, particularly mass dining and service consumption, continues to show a recovery trend. High-end consumption, including luxury goods and high-end jewelry, is performing even stronger, with some indicators exceeding expectations, reflecting a structural recovery in the consumer market [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Travel and Hospitality**: The travel chain significantly benefited from the longest Spring Festival in history, with hotel Average Daily Rate (ADR) increasing. Family travel demand is prominent, driven by the return home trend, quality scenic dining, and "reverse New Year" celebrations in first-tier cities [1][2]. - **Luxury Goods and Jewelry**: There is a clear differentiation in jewelry and luxury goods consumption, heavily influenced by high gold prices. Luxury goods consumption is relatively stronger, with high-end shopping district data exceeding expectations. The focus is on brand share improvement opportunities, as some brands are pressured by gold prices, creating structural opportunities for share changes [1][3]. - **Medical Aesthetics**: During the Spring Festival, medical aesthetics saw a double-digit increase in customer flow, although average prices were under pressure. Products like collagen water light and related offerings are expected to benefit from a robust pipeline and expanding market size. High-demand categories are likely to continue benefiting, necessitating tracking of certification rhythms and profit balance in the supply chain [1][3]. - **Cosmetics Sector**: The cosmetics sector is expected to see an upward trend around the March 8th node. Notable performance was observed in the China Resources system, particularly with the brand Mao Ge Ping. The investment strategy leans towards "momentum varieties" and "bottom stocks with share improvement," focusing on key companies [1][4]. Additional Important Insights - **Export Chain Dynamics**: The export chain is expected to see excess growth driven by "new products + new capacity deployment." The short-term key factor is the RMB exchange rate, which influences month-on-month changes. Companies with new capacity or product lines are prioritized for attention [2][4]. - **Tobacco Sector Changes**: The tobacco sector is undergoing significant changes due to adjustments in the international system by China National Tobacco. The removal of intermediaries in the domestic duty-free market is expected to enhance profits by approximately 3-5 percentage points [5]. - **Carbon Trading Opportunities**: The importance of carbon trading is increasing, driven by initiatives in Europe and the introduction of carbon tax mechanisms in domestic industries like steel and cement. Companies involved in carbon trading development, such as Yueyang Forest Paper and Yong'an Forestry, are worth monitoring for new business growth opportunities [6]. - **Pork Price Trends**: As of February 26, 2026, the average price of pork is approximately 10.7 CNY/kg, down 1 CNY from pre-Spring Festival levels. The market is expected to stabilize between 10.5-11.5 CNY/kg in the coming months, supported by potential state stockpiling and market entry by new players [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - **Consumer Sector**: Focus on the restaurant chain as a core direction, recommending companies like Anjiu and Yihai, while also considering those with accelerated store opening expectations. The snack sector remains promising, particularly in volume sales channels, with companies like Weilong and Salted Fish being highlighted for their investment value [14]. - **Medical Aesthetics and Cosmetics**: Companies with robust pipelines and market expansion potential should be closely monitored, particularly in the medical aesthetics sector [3][4]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing insights into the consumer sector's recovery, investment opportunities, and market dynamics.

业 及 产 业 农林牧渔 2026 年 03 月 01 日 节后猪价如期下跌，看好产能去化加速 看好 —— 农林牧渔周观点（2026.2.23-2026.3.1） 本期投资提示： 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 告 - ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上升 4.0%，沪深 300 上涨 1.1%。个股涨幅前五名：亚盛集团（17.5%）、绿康 生化（13.2%）、冠农股份（12.8%）、新赛股份（12.8%）、众兴菌业（12.3%），跌幅前五名：中水渔业 （-4.3%）、国联水产（-3.8%）、中宠股份（-1.8%）、播恩集团（-1.7%）、京 ...

【国金农业】再次强调牧场与生猪投资机会 随着天气逐步转暖以及南方补栏需求的提升，节后价格有望快速上涨。 中期来看行业产能去化幅度巨大，牛价有望破历史新高，看好肉奶共振的牧业大周期。 #重点推荐：优然牧业、现代牧业、中国圣牧等，以及关注受益的紫燕食品、光明肉业等。 节后散奶价的偏弱运行使得板块近期存在调整，淡季乳企本就会适当减少收奶量从而增加散奶供给，目前的价格 明显优于去年同期，而且散奶价格的下跌利好行业产能进一步去化，中期奶价反转趋势不变。 牛肉端来看：#冻品价格持续上涨，目前均价54.4元/公斤，周环比+1.7%，上涨驱动为下游补库和一致看多情绪。 牛市正月十五之前交易量较小，目前公牛犊成交价格稳定在40 【国金农业】再次强调牧场与生猪投资机会 节后散奶价的偏弱运行使得板块近期存在调整，淡季乳企本就会适当减少收奶量从而增加散奶供给，目前的价格 明显优于去年同期，而且散奶价格的下跌利好行业产能进一步去化，中期奶价反转趋势不变。 牛肉端来看：#冻品价格持续上涨，目前均价54.4元/公斤，周环比+1.7%，上涨驱动为下游补库和一致看多情绪。 牛市正月十五之前交易量较小，目前公牛犊成交价格稳定在40元/公斤左右， ...

1、传下周二头部猪企开会 2、节后猪价跌至11元/公斤以下，加速产能去化。 远月期货持续拉涨，猪价预期抬升 今日表现强势，MY 1、传下周二头部猪企开会 2、节后猪价跌至11元/公斤以下，加速产能去化。 今日表现强势，MY ...

| | 操作评级 | 2026年02月27日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 棕榈油 | ☆☆☆ なな女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 薬粕 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 莱油 | な☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 玉米 | なな☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | な女女 | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【豆一】 | | | 国产大豆主力合约延续上涨势头。部分产区优质大豆价格上涨，受到节后补库提振。不过普通大豆表现不如优 质大豆，需求偏疲软美盘大豆表现偏强，受到美国生物柴油乐观政策提标，另外市场也对贸易端预期偏乐观。 国内进口大豆方面市场也在关注南美大豆通关节奏。短期关注大豆政策和现货表现。 【大豆&豆粕&菜粕】 今日连粕延续震荡格局。USDA数据显示，截至2026年2月19日当周，美国2025/2026年 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current live hog spot price is in the second bottoming stage of the current bearish price cycle of live hogs [32]. - In the first half of 2026, the pressure of live hog slaughter continues [33]. - The current industry weight level is high, indicating a large inventory pressure of live hogs, and the industry inventory pressure still needs to be further digested [33]. - Since entering the capacity reduction stage in July/August 2025, the cumulative capacity reduction is only 1% - 2%, and the capacity reduction is insufficient. The hog price is expected to remain in the low - range and the breeding loss state in the next few months to promote further capacity reduction in the industry [34]. - In the short term, the hog price does not have the conditions for a cyclical reversal, but there are many potential supporting factors. In the long term, the continuous promotion of capacity reduction in the live hog industry will be beneficial to the gradual recovery of the forward price. The near - month contracts on the futures market reflect the weak reality, while the far - month contracts are more in the stage of expected trading. It is recommended to wait for the premium of far - month contracts over near - month contracts to narrow and then make low - position layouts [34]. Summary by Directory Supply Pressure and Price Bottoming - After the Spring Festival, the live hog spot price bottomed out for the second time. As of February 25, 2026, the national average live hog slaughter price was 10.77 yuan/kg, breaking the low point of the first bottoming after the National Day in 2025 (10.84 yuan/kg on October 13, 2025). From October 2025 to February 2026, the live hog spot price rebounded to a maximum of 13.3 yuan/kg [1]. - The second bottoming of the hog price after the Spring Festival is due to the seasonal off - peak of pork consumption demand and low slaughter volume after the Spring Festival. Also, since the last cycle of live hog production capacity recovery peaked around July/August 2025 and it takes about 10 months from sows to live hog slaughter, the live hog slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase until May/June 2026 [3]. - As of January 2026, the cumulative capacity reduction was 1.6% according to Shanghai Ganglian data (1.52% for large - scale farms and 3.97% for small and medium - sized散户). According to Yongyi Consulting data, the cumulative capacity reduction of sows in Yongyi sample 1 was only 0.43%, and in sample 2 was 0.75%. The overall cumulative capacity reduction from the second half of 2025 to early 2026 was small [5][7]. - The monthly number of newborn piglets can be used to predict the trend of live hog slaughter volume 6 months later. The data shows that October 2025 was a phased high point in the upward trend of the number of piglets [10]. High Slaughter Weight and Inventory Pressure - Historically, the bottom of the hog price often shows a "W" - shaped double - bottom feature. The report lists the historical bottom times and prices of hog prices under different data calibers [12][13]. - By tracking the performance of live hog slaughter weight at the cyclical bottom, it is found that the current slaughter weight is still higher than the historical cyclical bottom. As of February 27, 2026, the average slaughter weight was 123.06 kg according to Ganglian data, and as of February 26, 2026, it was 127.73 kg according to Yongyi data, indicating a high level of live hog inventory [16][17]. Short - term Potential Support Factors - Under the high fat - to - standard price difference, potential penning and secondary fattening may slow down the slaughter rhythm. As of February 26, 2026, the price difference between 150 - kg fat hogs and standard hogs was 0.8 yuan/kg, and that between 175 - kg fat hogs and standard hogs was 1.46 yuan/kg. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pens before the Spring Festival was about 20% in major secondary fattening provinces [20]. - Potential frozen pork storage: The current frozen pork inventory rate is at a seasonal low. As of February 12, 2026, the frozen pork inventory rate was 17.18%, down from the high of 20.59% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The spring price low of live hog spot is likely to trigger frozen pork storage [22]. - Potential policy - based frozen pork purchase and storage: When the hog price falls to a low level, the policy may implement a frozen pork purchase and storage plan. The hog - to - grain ratio has been between 5:1 and 6:1 for several months, and the hog price is in the second - level early warning range of excessive decline, with the condition to start purchase and storage as appropriate [24][26]. Long - term Price Recovery - In the long run, the driving force for the cyclical reversal and upward trend of the hog price comes from the industry's capacity reduction under the loss situation. As of February 27, 2026, the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 160 yuan/head, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 21 yuan/head, and the gross profit of selling piglets was 43.39 yuan/head [28]. - Considering factors such as the loss time and depth, the current capacity reduction in the live hog industry is insufficient. It is expected that the hog price will remain at a low level for a long time to promote capacity reduction [31].

李若熙 17611619787，lirx@avicsec.com 行情回顾 （2.07-2.21） 申万农林牧渔行业（-2.10%），申万行业排名（28/31）； 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ （来源：中航证券研究） 如您需要报告全文，可联系研究所销售团队： 陈艺丹 18611188969，chenyd@avicsec.com 李裕淇 18674857775，liyuq@avicsec.com 李友琳 18665808487，liyoul@avicsec.com 交易上，关注产能去化趋势中的板块机会。一是生猪周期轮转不止，配合"反内卷"政策引导，产能有望合理调减，猪价预期和生猪板块走势有望演绎。二 是生猪行业优势企业价值属性增强。长期稳态下生猪养殖产业整体将保持一定的利润水平，而行业具备养殖管理和成本优势的企业望保持较好盈利能力。 行业前期产能扩张的财务压力释放，产业优质企业的自由现金流大幅改善，支撑相关生猪企业估值。三是生猪行业优势企业红利属性增强。优质养殖企业 重视并不断提升股东回报，生猪板块优质标的的长期红利属性和配置价值有望愈加显著。四是生猪头部企业推进全球 ...