【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：供需宽松下震荡，远月价格或存低估 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 16 日 棉花：15 日新疆阿克苏区域机采棉 3129B 含杂 2.7%以内对应 2601 合约疆内 库销售基差在 910-980 元/吨,提货价在 14750-14900 元/吨，较上周五上涨 50 元/吨左右。北疆博州区域纺企采购 31 级双 29 含杂 2.7%以内机采新棉疆内库 2601 合约基差成交价 980-1080 元/吨，提货价在 14900-15100 元/吨，较前一日 上涨 50-100 元/吨。 现货宽松下，远月种植面积结构调整引发盘面出现一定反弹，但是 2026 年 度的减产预期更多在现货面会体现在 10 月后，而近月可能上行空间仍有较大限 制，今天盘面冲高回落更是印证了上方压力，预估震荡偏强为主。 1 122441 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于棉花信息网、泛糖科技 、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 何保证。报告中的 ...

鸡蛋：最近鸡蛋现货企稳，不过在价格逼近成本线后，上涨驱动逐渐走弱。 短期供应仍然宽松，需求在双节备货阶段尚无明显亮点，淘鸡方面虽然有一定产 能下降，但是总的仍然超出往年同期很多，预估节前很难出现趋势性行情。节后 如果淘鸡和存栏出现超淘，价格可能出现逐渐走出价格洼地的可能性，但是短期 内这种驱动暂时较弱，预估短期内震荡为主。 生猪：从 2025 年 7 月开始，生猪养殖行业步入去产能阶段，10 月末全国能 繁母猪存栏量降至 3990 万头，月环比下滑 1.1%，10 月产能去化有所提速。供应 宽松的格局难以迅速扭转，能繁母猪存栏绝对值仍处高位，仔猪供应充裕，这决 定了至少到 2026 年上半年，商品猪的理论供给量都将保持充裕。短期来说，数 据显示，12 月份规模企业计划出栏量环比增加约 3.2%，虽然按出栏天数折算的 日均量微降，但在行业普遍悲观预期下，整体出栏压力依然庞大。这意味着现在 甚至于 2 月前后，生猪现货供应压力仍然较大，不过近月存栏尤其是能繁殖母猪 存栏下降 ，让明年远月合约存在上涨的可能性，不过时间上至少在春节后，这 种价格才会在盘面上慢慢体现。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 供需宽松格局延续 矿价重心承压下移 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责条款 铁矿石年报 ⚫ 需求要点端：明年全球铁矿石需求增长预计保持温和。海 外市场有一定韧性，粗钢消费有望实现一定的增长。 中国作为全球最大的铁矿石消费国，需求前景偏弱， 国内生铁产量增长动力不足，房地产行业对钢材需求 的拖累仍在缓慢修复，短期内难以形成显著拉动。 ⚫ 供应端：2026年全球铁矿石产量预计增加1.3%。增量 主要源自：几内亚西芒杜项目的投产，预计产量2000 万吨；澳洲方面，力拓生产回稳、FMG铁桥项目增产， Mineral Resources ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 养殖产业链日报：供需宽松 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 15 日 大豆：国内市场，关内大豆产区受不利天气影响，品质有所受损，使得东北 高蛋白大豆价格支撑较强，阶段性基层惜售情绪较浓。但中长期来看，新季国产 大豆丰产格局未变，售粮进度偏慢或导致后续集中销售压力。此外，下游原料库 存仍居中高位，需求端承接力度有限。短期盘面价格跟随近月进口豆上扬，但是 由于下游需求偏弱，短期保持震荡格局，后续如进口大豆近月抛储成交下降，国 产大豆存在进一步回落风险。 玉米：玉米近期出现顺畅的阶段性上涨，不过在上周起市场风向转变，小麦 库存投放、200 万吨调节储备投放等偏空传闻出现，在价格大幅上涨后，持粮主 体神经敏感，利空消息直接触发了部分获利盘离场。当前正处于玉米季节性售粮 高峰，价格回落进一步调动了市场走货积极性。前期捂粮的贸易主体与惜售的种 植户开始释放粮源，粮源库存流通加快，有效缓解了短期供需紧张，推动价格降 温。 预估在此轮惜售情绪松动后，供应量将阶段性增加，这将压制玉米短期上涨 空间，不过玉米最坏的阶段已经属于过去式，关注元旦前后是否存在逢低买入的 机会。 鸡蛋：最近鸡蛋现货企稳，不过在价格 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, which in turn has weakened the cost - side support for propylene. With the expectation of a loose propylene supply - demand situation remaining unchanged, the market is likely to experience weak and volatile trends. The supply side has some short - term support due to PDH device maintenance, while the demand side's support may decline as the price increase squeezes downstream profits. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - This section includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China propylene basis, propylene 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong propylene market prices [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It involves figures such as the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [17][19][22] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profits - This part contains figures on the price differences between South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profits [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profits and Capacity Utilization - It includes the production profits and capacity utilization rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][50][56] 5. Propylene Inventory - This section has figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, with no obvious improvement in downstream demand. The rebound of urea prices is blocked, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a clear upper pressure level [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **行情分析 (Market Analysis)** - Urea futures opened lower and moved higher with a stronger - than - expected trend. The spot market had poor trading, with insufficient domestic demand and strong resistance from downstream to high prices, and prices remained stable. The daily output of urea had a slight increase recently, but there were still plants under inspection or shut - down, so the output fluctuation was small. The cost - end was strongly supported by the rising coal price due to the serious losses of gas - based plants. The agricultural demand was in progress, and the factory's finished - product inventory was gradually decreasing but still slightly higher than the same period last year. The spring compound fertilizer production was about to start, and the inventory situation had improved compared to the previous loose state but had not reversed the inventory - accumulation cycle [1] **期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market Conditions)** - **Futures**: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1638 yuan/ton, opened high and moved low, with a stronger - than - expected trend, and finally closed at 1644 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The trading volume was 270349 lots, a decrease of 2652 lots. On October 29, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 2970 compared to the previous trading day due to centralized cancellation. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions decreased by 5189 lots, and short positions decreased by 1821 lots [2] - **Spot**: The spot market had poor trading, with insufficient domestic demand and strong resistance from downstream to high prices, and prices remained stable. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was still 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] **基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Tracking)** - **基差 (Basis)**: The mainstream spot market quotation remained stable, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [7] - **供应数据 (Supply Data)**: On October 29, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 190400 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8] - **企业库存数据 (Enterprise Inventory Data)**: As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5543 million tons, a decrease of 75900 tons compared to last week, a decrease of 4.66% [11] - **预售订单天数 (Pre - sale Order Days)**: As of October 31, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.53 days, an increase of 0.12 days compared to the previous period, an increase of 1.62% [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, with a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter (3.3% for crude oil and -1.3% for refined oil). OPEC+ production increase and demand decline after the peak season, along with geopolitical factors, put pressure on the market. But with oil prices near the April low and net long positions at a low level, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil is still weakly oscillating. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply - demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today. The weekly construction rate decreased, demand was affected by weather, and the market is in a tight - balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillated narrowly, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was weak, and the basis changed to a slight premium [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially for in - transit crude oil. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (3.3% for crude oil and -1.3% for refined oil) [1]. - OPEC+ production increase and post - peak - season demand decline, along with geopolitical factors, brought supply - demand pressure. But the downward momentum may slow this week as oil prices are near the April low and net long positions are low [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost end with a weakly oscillating trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply - demand will turn loose due to geopolitical easing and other factors [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, with high arbitrage cargo volume from the West to Singapore and the effect of refinery operation recovery still to be observed [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near - month contracts relatively stronger. The weekly construction rate decreased, and demand was affected by cold in the north and rain in the south [3]. - The 10 - month demand is expected to be weaker than expected, and the commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market is in a tight - balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillated narrowly, with far - month contracts under pressure. Supply increased slightly this week [3]. - Chemical demand grew while combustion demand was weak, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: ☆☆☆, indicating the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor market operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated since September, with OPEC+ production increase and post-peak demand decline causing supply-demand pressure. However, considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today, with开工率 decreasing, demand weaker than expected, and the market in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillates narrowly, supply increases slightly, chemical demand grows while combustion demand is flat, and inventories decline [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially the in-transit crude oil inventory. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (crude oil inventory by 3.3% and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.3%) [1]. - OPEC+'s continuous production increase and post-peak demand decline bring supply-demand pressure, and geopolitical factors also weigh on the market [1]. - Considering the low oil price and net long positions, the downward momentum of oil prices may slow this week, and attention should be paid to the China-US and Russia-US talks [1]. Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost side with a weakening trend [2]. - High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong current, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply-demand will turn loose as geopolitical tensions ease and other factors change [2]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, and the impact of the restart of the RFCG device at Dangote Refinery needs further observation [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near-month contracts relatively stronger [3]. - The weekly national asphalt production rate decreased, demand in October is weaker than expected, and the cumulative shipment volume in mid-October increased 1 percentage point less year-on-year compared to the end of September [3]. - Social inventory is steadily decreasing, factory inventory is decreasing weakly, and the overall commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market remains in a tight balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillates narrowly, with far-month contracts under pressure [3]. - This week, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was flat, and both refinery and port inventories decreased [3]. - Today, the spot price in Shandong rose while the futures price oscillated, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in styrene futures prices since late September is attributed to multiple factors, including a sharp drop in oil prices and weak fundamentals in the styrene market [1][2]. Group 1: Price Decline Factors - Styrene futures prices began to decline from a high of 7831 yuan/ton in late June 2025, reaching a low of 6437 yuan/ton by October 16 [1]. - The drop in oil prices is a major factor affecting styrene prices, driven by geopolitical risks, trade tensions, and an oversupply situation as the demand season ends [1][2]. - The overall chemical product prices have also fallen due to macroeconomic disturbances and OPEC+ production increases, impacting styrene prices [1]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory Dynamics - Styrene's weak fundamentals are reflected in rising port inventories and a marginal weakening in the upstream pure benzene supply-demand balance [2]. - As of mid-October, styrene inventories at East China ports were around 200,000 tons, significantly higher than the approximately 40,000 tons from the same period last year, marking a five-year high [2]. - Despite maintenance activities reducing production slightly, the overall supply remains high, and demand has also decreased, leading to a continued oversupply situation [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Chain Analysis - The basic fundamentals of pure benzene, the direct raw material for styrene, are also weak, with expectations of declining demand due to losses in downstream products [3]. - High hidden inventories of pure benzene, concentrated in styrene plants, are expected to keep production rates high, as plants are unlikely to significantly reduce output to maintain market share [3]. - The entire industry chain, including pure benzene, styrene, and downstream synthetic materials, is experiencing historically high inventory levels, which will take time to alleviate [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term reversal of styrene prices is considered difficult, with potential for a temporary rebound due to supply constraints from geopolitical factors [4]. - For a price reversal to occur, improvements in oil prices, upstream pure benzene fundamentals, and downstream orders are necessary [5]. - The likelihood of a decrease in styrene inventory and low valuation suggests that overly bearish views may not be warranted, although new production capacity and oil price declines pose challenges [5].

Core Viewpoint - The removal of soybean export tariffs in Argentina has led to a significant increase in soybean imports by China, alleviating concerns about supply shortages in the fourth quarter, which in turn has caused a decline in domestic soybean meal prices in September [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In September, the average price of 43% protein soybean meal was 3008 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (0.67%) from August, and down 88 yuan/ton (2.84%) year-on-year [1]. - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories remained high, prompting a focus on inventory clearance, while downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious due to lower import costs from Argentina [1][3]. - The total soybean crushing volume in September was 9.6291 million tons, a decrease of 210,300 tons from August [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - For October, soybean arrivals are projected to be 9.23 million tons, 9 million tons, and 8.5 million tons for the months of October to December, indicating a tightening supply outlook, although factory inventory levels remain high [3]. - The international market is influenced by ongoing trade discussions between China and the U.S., with China significantly reducing imports of U.S. soybeans [3]. - The price of Brazilian soybeans remains stable, while Argentine soybean import costs have decreased, although the limited share of imports from Argentina means its impact on domestic soybean meal prices is relatively weak [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The overall demand for soybean meal is expected to be negatively impacted by declining prices of downstream livestock products and worsening losses in the livestock sector [4]. - The supply side remains elevated, contributing to a loose supply-demand situation that is likely to exert downward pressure on spot prices [4].