| E | . | • | D | 25 | œ | D | 7 | VE | = | 3 | 6 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | | --- | --- | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | | 低硫燃料油 ☆☆☆ | | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | 能源日报 2026年01月20日 王盈敏 中级分析师 F3066912 Z0016785 李海群 中级分析师 F03107558 Z0021515 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【原油】 特朗普政府暂缓对伊朗的军事行动,也使得此前计入油价的地缘风险溢价部分回吐。此前我们已指出,从近期 油价波动显著加剧的表现来看,除非冲突导致大幅度的石油供应中断,否则油价短期上行空间预计有限。原油 市场的主基调仍是由供需宽松主导的承压格局。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 燃料油市场仍受地缘主导。高硫方面,市场聚焦美伊紧张 ...

【原油】 特朗普政府暂缓对伊朗的军事行动,也使得此前计入油价的地缘风险溢价部分回吐。此前我们已指出,从近期 油价波动显著加剧的表现来看,除非冲突导致大幅度的石油供应中断,否则油价短期上行空间预计有限。原油 市场的主基调仍是由供需宽松主导的承压格局。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 燃料油市场仍受地缘主导。高硫方面,市场聚焦美伊紧张局势等地缘风险,作为亚洲重要来源地,伊朗出口若 受阻将收紧区域供应,并威胁霍尔木兹海峡运输安全。委内瑞拉冲突风险虽缓和,但美国高硫表现受委内原料 进口增加压制,若套利窗口打开可能向亚洲传导压力。中期则受原料宽松、浮舱及高库存压制,供应趋于宽 松。低硫方面,冬季需求给予市场一定支撑,但海外炼厂供应提升,科威特阿祖尔炼厂三套CDU装置全部恢复运 行，离港的13万吨低硫燃料油预计于1月下旬抵达新加坡、供应压力初步显现。展望后续，燃料油绝对价格仍跟 随原油波动,高硫因地缘扰动而近月偏强,正套格局看待。低硫因供应边际增加承压,关注汽柴油裂解上行对 低硫形成的底部支撑。 (沥青) | E | . | • | D | 25 | œ | D | 7 | VE | = | 3 | 6 | 2 | | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, meaning a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [2] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors, such as the Venezuela situation and Ukraine's attacks on Russian ships, cause short - term price rebounds in the energy market, but the long - term trend is dominated by the supply - demand relationship, with prices generally under pressure due to supply - side factors [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions around Venezuela lead to a pulse - style "risk premium" trade, pushing up oil prices. However, the potential global supply shortage caused by a single - country supply interruption is limited. The attacks on Russian ships by Ukraine add supply risk. Although US shale oil drilling and fracturing activities are at multi - year lows, production remains at a high level this year. Geopolitical premiums provide short - term rebound power, while the long - term trend is a downward shift in the oil price center due to future supply - demand looseness [3] Fuel oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical risks drive up crude oil costs, causing fuel oil prices to rise. The demand side lacks a clear upward driver, and the supply side is the main trading focus. High - sulfur fuel oil is in a tug - of - war between geopolitical risks and structural oversupply. Geopolitical factors provide short - term support, but mid - term supply is loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly affected by the operating status of refinery units, with expected marginal increases from unit maintenance and return, and is likely to continue a weak performance [4] Asphalt - Since December, the weekly shipment volume has been below 400,000 tons, at a near - four - year low. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased, with the factory inventory ending a de - stocking trend. Although the supply - demand situation is marginally looser, positive news boosts the price. Geopolitical conflicts provide short - term rebound power, but the long - term trend is price pressure due to supply - demand looseness [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend due to the adjustment of the planting area structure in the far - month, but the upside potential of the near - month is limited [1] - The sugar market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state due to abundant supply both internationally and domestically [2] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - On the 15th, the sales basis of machine - picked cotton 3129B in Aksu, Xinjiang (within 2.7% impurity) for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 910 - 980 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14750 - 14900 yuan/ton, up about 50 yuan/ton from last Friday [1] - In Bortala, Xinjiang, the basis transaction price of new machine - picked cotton (Grade 31, double 29, within 2.7% impurity) for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 980 - 1080 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14900 - 15100 yuan/ton, up 50 - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Sugar - StoneX's third revised report on the global sugar supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 season predicts a sugar surplus of 3.7 million tons, and the estimated sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil for the 2026/27 season is 41.5 million tons, which is lower than the previous estimate [2] - As of December 15, in the 2025/26 season in India, 479 sugar mills were in operation, 6 more than the same period last year, and the sugar production was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 million tons or 28.34% [2] - With abundant international supply, all northern beet sugar mills in China are in operation, and southern cane sugar mills are gradually starting production. The domestic sugar market supply is abundant, and sugar prices are under downward pressure [2]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply side of soybeans has significant supporting factors, but the demand side has weak recovery, with short - term prices in a volatile pattern and potential for further decline if import soybean near - month auction volume drops [1] - The selling pressure on corn prices is gradually decreasing, and after the loosening of the hoarding sentiment, the supply will increase and suppress short - term price increases, but the worst stage is over, and it's worth watching for buying opportunities around New Year's Day [1] - Egg prices are stabilizing, with short - term supply remaining loose and demand lacking highlights during the double - festival stocking period. There may be a chance of price recovery after the festival if there is over - culling, but short - term prices are expected to be volatile [2] - The pig - breeding industry has been in the capacity - reduction stage since July 2025. The supply is still loose at present, with large short - term supply pressure, but there is a possibility of price increase for far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [2] Group 2: Industry Situation Details Soybeans - On the supply side, large - scale buyers' purchase prices are rising steadily, the purchase price of China Grain Reserves Corporation provides a bottom support, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the supply of high - quality soybeans in the south is decreasing [1] - On the demand side, downstream consumption recovery is weak, the actual trading atmosphere has not improved with price trends, and enterprises in sales areas mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand [1] Corn - The average sales progress in Northeast China is about 38% according to three - party data, with the fastest being 42% from the National Grain and Oil Information Center. Heilongjiang is at 50%, Jilin at 36%, Liaoning at 44%, and Inner Mongolia at 36% [1] Eggs - Egg spot prices are stabilizing, but the upward driving force is weakening as prices approach the cost line. Short - term supply is loose, demand during the double - festival stocking period is not prominent, and the overall number of culled chickens is still much higher than the same period in previous years [2] Pigs - Since July 2025, the pig - breeding industry has been reducing capacity. By the end of October, the national inventory of breeding sows dropped to 39.9 million, a month - on - month decline of 1.1%, and the capacity reduction accelerated in October [2] - The planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises in December increased by about 3.2% month - on - month, and the overall slaughter pressure is still large under the pessimistic industry expectation [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global iron ore demand growth in 2026 is expected to remain moderate. The overseas market shows some resilience, but China's demand outlook is weak due to insufficient growth momentum in domestic pig iron production and slow recovery of steel demand in the real - estate sector [3][18][50]. - The global iron ore production in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.3%. The increments mainly come from the launch of the Simandou project in Guinea, production recovery and expansion of major mines in Australia and Brazil [3][21][50]. - In 2026, the global iron ore market is expected to maintain a loose supply - demand pattern. With weak demand and continuous supply growth, the iron ore price is under pressure, and its center may continue to decline, with a reference range of 600 - 880 yuan/ton [3][51]. 3. Section - by - section Summaries 3.1. Market Review - In early 2025, iron ore prices rose strongly. From January to February, the main contract reached the annual high of 844 yuan/ton, driven by macro - policy expectations, seasonal reduction of overseas ore shipments, and demand support from blast furnace复产 after the Spring Festival [7]. - In the second quarter, the market weakened significantly. In March, the slow recovery of terminal demand, US steel tariffs, and anti - dumping in Southeast Asia increased steel export pressure. In April, the "reciprocal tariff" policy in the US caused market panic, leading to a sharp decline in iron ore prices [7]. - In July, there was a strong reversal. The "anti - involution" policy raised expectations of coking coal contraction, and the high - level daily iron - water production provided strong support. However, the continuous narrowing of steel mill profits foreshadowed subsequent price drops [7]. - Since August, iron ore has been oscillating at a high level with a gradually downward center. After the National Day holiday, demand weakened, iron - water production decreased, and supply increased, leading to rising port inventories and weakening prices [7]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Domestic Iron Ore Demand Better than the Same Period - China's steel production was generally at a high level, with iron - water production being high in the first half and low in the second half. As of November, the average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills was about 238 tons/day, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The blast furnace operating rate was in the 80% - 85% range [10]. - Long - product output declined more significantly due to the real - estate industry, while plate output decreased less due to support from the automotive, shipbuilding, and manufacturing industries and exports [10]. - China's steel exports reached a record high in 2025. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 10771 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, and the billet export volume in the first ten months increased by 157% [11]. - Overseas, the total iron ore demand increased in 2025 but was highly differentiated. India was the main growth driver, while demand in Japan, South Korea, and some European countries decreased [14]. 3.2.2. Overseas Ore Shipments Maintained an Upward Trend - In 2025, China's iron ore imports increased slightly. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 1.139 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The import rhythm accelerated in the second half of the year [19]. - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea was successfully launched in 2025, and the first shipment was made in December. The project has an annual capacity of 1.2 billion tons and is expected to significantly increase production in 2026 [19]. - Global iron ore shipments were generally at a high level. From January to the 49th week, the cumulative shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 1.1% year - on - year. Mainstream mines' shipments to China and arrivals increased significantly in the second half of the year [20]. 3.2.3. Iron Ore Port Inventories - Port inventories were generally at a high level in 2025, first decreasing and then increasing. At the beginning of the year, inventories were about 150 million tons. They decreased in the first half due to low overseas shipments and high domestic consumption, and then increased in the second half due to strong supply and weakening demand [31]. 3.2.4. Steel Mill Inventories - Steel mills adopted a cautious strategy of "actively reducing inventories and maintaining low levels" in 2025. They were cautious in raw material procurement, especially in the second half of the year when profits were compressed [43]. - Steel mills tended to replenish inventories before long holidays to ensure production continuity. After the holidays, inventory reduction often led to weakening iron ore prices [43]. 3.2.5. Domestic Mine Production - Domestic mine production contracted in 2025. From January to October, the cumulative iron ore output was 851.73 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. Production in Hebei and Liaoning decreased significantly [45]. - Some new projects in 2025 are expected to contribute about 6.565 million tons of new iron concentrate output, but they are still far from the goals of the "Cornerstone Plan" [45]. 3.2.6. Shipping Freight - Iron ore shipping freight increased significantly in 2025, showing a pattern of being weak at first and then strong with wide fluctuations. By December 11, the freight from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao increased by 64% compared to the beginning of the year, and that from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao increased by 33% [47]. 3.3. Market Outlook - In 2026, global iron ore demand growth is expected to be moderate. China's demand is weak, while overseas demand has some resilience [50]. - Global iron ore production in 2026 is expected to increase by 1.3%, with increments mainly from the Simandou project and production expansion of major mines in Australia and Brazil [50]. - The global iron ore market is expected to maintain a loose supply - demand pattern in 2026. With weak demand and continuous supply growth, the iron ore price is under pressure, and its center may continue to decline, with a reference range of 600 - 880 yuan/ton [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean market has short - term price support but faces long - term pressure due to factors like new - season harvest and weak demand [1]. - Corn has seen a price decline recently, with increased supply expected to suppress short - term upside, but there may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1]. - The egg market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with potential price improvement after the festival if there is over - culling [2]. - The long - term supply of pigs is abundant, with high pressure on spot supply until February 2026, but far - month contracts may rise after the Spring Festival [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Soybean - In the domestic market, adverse weather in the Guan - nei soybean area has damaged quality, supporting the price of high - protein soybeans in Northeast China, and there is short - term farmer reluctance to sell [1]. - In the long run, the new - season domestic soybean harvest is good, and slow selling may lead to concentrated sales pressure later. Downstream demand is weak, and the short - term price is in a shock pattern, with a risk of further decline if import soybean auctions decrease [1]. Corn - Corn had a short - term upward trend but then reversed due to negative rumors. The current seasonal selling peak and price decline have increased market supply and cooled prices [1]. - After the loosening of the reluctance - to - sell sentiment, the supply will increase, suppressing short - term price increases. There may be a buying opportunity around New Year's Day [1]. Egg - The egg spot price has stabilized, but the upward drive is weakening as it approaches the cost line. Short - term supply is loose, and demand during the double - festival stocking period is not outstanding [2]. - There has been some decline in the egg - laying hen capacity, but it is still higher than in previous years. It is difficult to have a trend - like market before the festival. After the festival, if there is over - culling, the price may improve, but the short - term drive is weak [2]. Pig - The long - term supply of pigs is abundant, with a high inventory of breeding sows and sufficient piglet supply, ensuring abundant theoretical supply until the first half of 2026 [2]. - In December, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises increased by about 3.2% month - on - month. The overall slaughter pressure is high until February 2026. However, the decline in the inventory of breeding sows may lead to a price increase in far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, which in turn has weakened the cost - side support for propylene. With the expectation of a loose propylene supply - demand situation remaining unchanged, the market is likely to experience weak and volatile trends. The supply side has some short - term support due to PDH device maintenance, while the demand side's support may decline as the price increase squeezes downstream profits. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - This section includes figures on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China propylene basis, propylene 01 - 05 contract, and East China and Shandong propylene market prices [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - It involves figures such as the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization [17][19][22] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profits - This part contains figures on the price differences between South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profits [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profits and Capacity Utilization - It includes the production profits and capacity utilization rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][50][56] 5. Propylene Inventory - This section has figures on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [66]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, with no obvious improvement in downstream demand. The rebound of urea prices is blocked, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term, with a clear upper pressure level [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **行情分析 (Market Analysis)** - Urea futures opened lower and moved higher with a stronger - than - expected trend. The spot market had poor trading, with insufficient domestic demand and strong resistance from downstream to high prices, and prices remained stable. The daily output of urea had a slight increase recently, but there were still plants under inspection or shut - down, so the output fluctuation was small. The cost - end was strongly supported by the rising coal price due to the serious losses of gas - based plants. The agricultural demand was in progress, and the factory's finished - product inventory was gradually decreasing but still slightly higher than the same period last year. The spring compound fertilizer production was about to start, and the inventory situation had improved compared to the previous loose state but had not reversed the inventory - accumulation cycle [1] **期现行情 (Futures and Spot Market Conditions)** - **Futures**: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1638 yuan/ton, opened high and moved low, with a stronger - than - expected trend, and finally closed at 1644 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. The trading volume was 270349 lots, a decrease of 2652 lots. On October 29, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 0, a decrease of 2970 compared to the previous trading day due to centralized cancellation. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions decreased by 5189 lots, and short positions decreased by 1821 lots [2] - **Spot**: The spot market had poor trading, with insufficient domestic demand and strong resistance from downstream to high prices, and prices remained stable. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was still 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] **基本面跟踪 (Fundamental Tracking)** - **基差 (Basis)**: The mainstream spot market quotation remained stable, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at - 64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton [7] - **供应数据 (Supply Data)**: On October 29, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 190400 tons, the same as the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8] - **企业库存数据 (Enterprise Inventory Data)**: As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5543 million tons, a decrease of 75900 tons compared to last week, a decrease of 4.66% [11] - **预售订单天数 (Pre - sale Order Days)**: As of October 31, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.53 days, an increase of 0.12 days compared to the previous period, an increase of 1.62% [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, with a 1.5% increase in the fourth quarter (3.3% for crude oil and -1.3% for refined oil). OPEC+ production increase and demand decline after the peak season, along with geopolitical factors, put pressure on the market. But with oil prices near the April low and net long positions at a low level, the downward momentum may slow this week [1]. - For fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil, the absolute price of fuel oil is still weakly oscillating. High-sulfur fuel oil has a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply - demand will turn loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose [2]. - For asphalt, the contract prices rose slightly today. The weekly construction rate decreased, demand was affected by weather, and the market is in a tight - balance with price support at the bottom [3]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the main contract oscillated narrowly, supply increased slightly, chemical demand grew while combustion demand was weak, and the basis changed to a slight premium [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since September, the global oil inventory accumulation has accelerated, especially for in - transit crude oil. In the fourth quarter, global oil inventory increased by 1.5% (3.3% for crude oil and -1.3% for refined oil) [1]. - OPEC+ production increase and post - peak - season demand decline, along with geopolitical factors, brought supply - demand pressure. But the downward momentum may slow this week as oil prices are near the April low and net long positions are low [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil follows the cost end with a weakly oscillating trend. High - sulfur fuel oil has a "strong reality, weak expectation" pattern, and its supply - demand will turn loose due to geopolitical easing and other factors [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply remains loose, with high arbitrage cargo volume from the West to Singapore and the effect of refinery operation recovery still to be observed [2]. Asphalt - Today, asphalt contracts rose slightly, with near - month contracts relatively stronger. The weekly construction rate decreased, and demand was affected by cold in the north and rain in the south [3]. - The 10 - month demand is expected to be weaker than expected, and the commercial inventory decreased slightly. The market is in a tight - balance with price support at the bottom [3]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The main LPG contract oscillated narrowly, with far - month contracts under pressure. Supply increased slightly this week [3]. - Chemical demand grew while combustion demand was weak, and the basis changed from flat to a slight premium [3].