本刊记者 王红茹｜北京报道 最新消息显示，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）依然"按兵不动"，至此已连续7个月保持稳定。很多网友都关心，后续LPR还会下调吗？为此，记者专访了中 国人民大学金融信息中心主任杨健。 《中国经济周刊》：LPR连续7个月不变，是出于何种政策考量？ 杨健：LPR不变，究其核心，在于当前宏观经济环境持续向好，市场对短期强刺激政策的依赖度明显下降。从基本面看，我国经济展现出较强的增长韧 性：一方面，2025年出口表现超乎预期；另一方面，新质生产力相关领域发展势头加快，全年经济增长目标的实现应该没有悬念。在此情况下，进一步加 大逆周期调节力度的必要性已明显减弱。 《中国经济周刊》：后续LPR还存在下调空间吗？ 杨健：今年以来，LPR仅于5月开展过一轮调整。虽然连续多月保持平稳，且整体贷款利率处于历史较低水平，但从政策导向来看，未来依然具备调整空 间。 中央经济工作会议明确提出要"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，这意味着货币政策将更加主动服务于稳增长目标。为支持2026年一季度经济平稳 开局，货币政策预计将逐步从观察期转向发力期，央行有可能适时推出新一轮降准或降息操作。 1 2 届时，LPR也很 ...

Core Insights - The liquidity in the U.S. financial system is being significantly impacted by JPMorgan Chase's strategic shift of $350 billion from reserves at the Federal Reserve to U.S. Treasury securities, leading to a contraction in overall system reserves [3] - JPMorgan's holdings of U.S. Treasuries surged from $231 billion to $450 billion, nearly doubling, as the bank aims to lock in future yields before anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - The actions of a single institution, such as JPMorgan, can have substantial effects on overall market liquidity, raising concerns among regulators about financial stability [4][5] Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase has moved $350 billion from Federal Reserve reserves to U.S. Treasury securities, causing total bank deposits at the Fed to drop from $1.9 trillion to $1.6 trillion [3] - Excluding JPMorgan, the remaining 4,000 banks have seen a net increase in reserves, indicating that JPMorgan's actions are counteracting the overall banking sector's liquidity [3] - The bank's strategy is driven by the declining interest on reserves (IORB), which has decreased from a peak of 5.4% [3] Group 2 - JPMorgan's Treasury holdings increased significantly, with market speculation suggesting the bank is extending asset duration and using interest rate swaps to prepare for a low-rate environment [3][4] - The bank received $15 billion in interest from the Federal Reserve in 2024, which constitutes about 25% of its projected annual profit of $58.5 billion [4] - The ongoing debate regarding the Federal Reserve's interest on reserves and its impact on credit availability for the real economy has been reignited, highlighting potential conflicts between individual bank strategies and macroeconomic stability [4][5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolving role of central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, in influencing interest rates and market liquidity through monetary policy tools like quantitative easing [1][3] - It highlights the historical context of central banks, noting their original purpose of financing government operations and managing currency issuance tied to gold standards [2] - The relationship between central bankers and politicians is described as delicate, with central bank independence being crucial for maintaining market confidence, especially in the face of political pressures [3][4] Group 2 - The article references the significant actions taken by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who raised interest rates to combat inflation, illustrating the importance of central bank independence in achieving long-term economic stability [4] - It mentions the current political climate, particularly the pressures from President Trump on the Federal Reserve, and the implications for future monetary policy decisions [3][5] - The potential for interest rate cuts is discussed, with market reactions indicating optimism for continued economic growth under the current administration [3][4]

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US economy continues to expand, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a Q3 growth rate of 3.1%, driven by stable consumer momentum and strong investment in technology [2] - Jobless claims have increased, with initial claims rising by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest in four years, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - Inflation remains manageable, with August PPI unexpectedly dropping to 2.6%, significantly below the expected 3.3%, while CPI slightly increased to 2.9% [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The US is expected to restart monetary easing, with market participants fully pricing in three rate cuts this year, leading to a decline in private sector financing costs [3] - The 30-year mortgage rate fell by 15 basis points to 6.25%, and the 10-year AAA corporate bond yield decreased by 8 basis points to 4.26% [3] - US stock markets rose, influenced by the Fed's dovish outlook, although valuations are considered high, with future gains expected to come from corporate earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - Short-term interest rates are expected to decline as the easing cycle begins, but the long-term rates may remain volatile due to economic resilience and inflationary pressures [4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to average 4.3% this year and 4.2% next year, with a fluctuation range of 3.5% to 5% [4] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The US dollar is anticipated to remain in a range-bound trading pattern, with a fluctuation range of 95 to 103, due to the dual support of easing monetary policy and fiscal expansion [5] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a strong stance in the short term, although potential fluctuations may arise from changes in the A-share market and US rate cut expectations [5] - Gold is viewed positively, benefiting from the Fed's easing cycle and ongoing global central bank purchases [5] Group 5: China Economic Insights - China's economy is showing signs of slowdown, with external demand weakening and internal demand potentially continuing to decline [7] - August macro data indicates a drop in export and import growth rates, with exports to the US declining by 33.1% [7] - The government is implementing policies to stabilize growth in key industries, including the automotive sector, with a target of approximately 3% growth in overall vehicle sales by 2025 [9] Group 6: Market Strategy and Recommendations - The current market sentiment favors equities over bonds, with a recommendation to hold short to medium-duration bonds while being cautious with long-duration investments [12] - The A-share market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.52%, supported by liquidity and favorable policies [13] - Investment strategies suggest maintaining dividend stocks as a stable base, while allocating to growth sectors like technology and healthcare for potential gains [14]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges due to President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which has raised concerns about political interference in monetary policy [1][10][14]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve stated that the long-term fixed terms of its governors and the protection against dismissal are crucial for ensuring that monetary policy decisions are based on data and the long-term interests of the American people [3][4]. - The Fed will comply with any court rulings regarding Cook's dismissal [4]. Group 2: Political Implications - Trump's actions are seen as part of a systematic intervention in the Federal Reserve, with previous appointments of loyalists and public criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's policies [6][7]. - Historically, no Fed governor has been dismissed by a president, and Trump's ability to remove Cook remains uncertain due to legal restrictions requiring substantial evidence of misconduct [8][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Trump's threats, the U.S. dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and S&P 500 futures experienced limited declines [10]. - Analysts suggest that if the Fed's decision-making is increasingly influenced by Trump's policies, it could lead to accelerated rate cuts, benefiting equities and global risk assets while causing fluctuations in commodity prices [10]. Group 4: Future Considerations - If Trump successfully removes Cook, he would gain a majority on the Fed's Board, potentially undermining the Fed's independence and affecting its ability to control inflation [14][15]. - The political cycle may increasingly influence the Fed's policy objectives, shifting from a dual mandate of price stability and employment growth to potentially incorporating political considerations [15].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations in 2022, with cautious optimism regarding investment opportunities as macroeconomic conditions evolve [1][3]. Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is anticipated to show a gradual upward trend throughout the year, supported by ongoing monetary policy measures [1]. - Key challenges include pressure on exports and domestic demand, with real estate sector contraction being a central issue [1]. - Inflation is expected to see a decline in PPI while CPI may rise, indicating mixed inflationary pressures [1]. Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market in 2021 exhibited a rare low-volatility trend, performing relatively well [4]. - There is a cautious outlook for 2022, with expectations of a range-bound market rather than a continuation of the previous year's "bull market" [3][5]. - The bond market may face short-term pressures due to policy adjustments and credit data fluctuations, but medium-term risks are considered manageable [5]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on maintaining flexibility and liquidity in bond portfolios, with an emphasis on credit quality and duration management [6]. - The approach should prioritize space over time, with a focus on selective trading and appropriate leverage [6]. - For the money market, a neutral strategy is recommended, with an emphasis on timing and adjusting duration to balance yield and risk [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Liquidity abundance drives a dual - bull market in stocks and bonds, but export data interferes with the bond market. The 7 - day OMO of the central bank was in a net - withdrawal state last week, yet the capital market remained loose. The short - term asset yields declined due to loose funds, and the mid - and long - term yields also had downward support after the weak bond market sentiment recovered. However, the July export data and the establishment of the Xinzang Railway Company triggered the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, restricting the downward space of ultra - long - term interest rates [2][87]. - The pricing focus of taxation is more inclined to new bonds, and the curve valuation may face upward pressure. The ChinaBond Valuation Center will gradually transition the yield curve and prioritize using new bonds to compile it. The winning bid rate of new local bonds on August 8 was higher than the valuation of the same - term old bonds, indicating that the pricing focus has shifted to new bonds. Potential tax policy changes may also push up the valuation center [2][88]. - Ample funds are beneficial for short - term interest rates to maintain good performance, and the curve shape may continue to steepen. The previous negative sentiment in the bond market has weakened, and the bond market pricing may become more neutral. Short - term interest rates are expected to perform well, while the downward space of long - term interest rates may be restricted. The strategy of "shortening portfolio duration + preferentially allocating old bonds" is recommended, and steepening the interest rate curve is also a cost - effective option [2][89]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - On August 8, the central bank conducted a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tender, multiple - price - winning bid buy - back operation. After this operation, the buy - back was still in a net - withdrawal state as the August maturity scale was 9000 billion yuan [5]. - China's export in July 2025 reached 321.784 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, the highest growth rate since April. Exports to the EU and ASEAN increased by 9.2% and 16.6% respectively, while exports to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year [7]. - The State Council issued an opinion on gradually implementing free pre - school education, covering all kindergarten senior - class children and eligible private kindergarten children [9]. - On August 8, 2025, the Xinzang Railway Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 950 billion yuan, marking the start of the substantial construction of the Xinzang Railway project [12]. - On August 7, the ChinaBond Valuation Center announced that it would gradually transition the yield curve and prioritize using new bonds to compile it [13]. 3.2 Money Market - **Open Market Operations and Capital Interest Rate Trends**: From August 4 to 8, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan. The policy interest rate for the 7 - day open - market reverse repurchase was 1.40%. As of August 8, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.341%, 1.454%, 1.312%, and 1.425% respectively, with changes compared to August 1 [15][20]. - **Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume**: Commercial bank certificates of deposit had a net financing of 177.31 billion yuan last week, with city commercial banks having the largest issuance scale. The 1 - year issuance rate of national and share - holding banks dropped to around 1.63%. In the secondary market, the yields of certificates of deposit declined, and the 1Y - 3M term spread widened [24][29]. 3.3 Bond Market - **Primary Market**: From January to August, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was faster than that of national bonds. As of August 8, the cumulative net financing of national bonds and local bonds in 2025 was about 4.37 trillion yuan and 5.27 trillion yuan respectively. The actual issuance of local government bonds in July was lower than expected, which may lead to an increase in the actual supply in August - September. Last week, the issuance and net financing of national bonds increased significantly, while the issuance of local bonds slowed down. The issuance scale of special refinancing bonds has reached 1.84 trillion yuan as of August 8 [34][41][42]. - **Secondary Market**: Last week, the market showed a bull - steepening trend. The short - and medium - term interest rates declined due to loose funds, while the ultra - long - term interest rates increased due to export data and strong risk assets. The trading volume and turnover rate of 10 - year national bond and national development bond active bonds decreased. The term spread and the spread between national and local bonds showed different trends [46][50][59]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The leveraged trading volume recovered last week due to loose funds. The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.42 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.21 trillion yuan from the previous week [67]. - In the cash bond market, state - owned banks mainly bought national bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, rural commercial banks mainly increased their holdings of national bonds with a maturity of more than 10 years, and securities firms and funds had a stronger buying force for national bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [70]. - The current加仓 cost of major trading desks for 10 - year national bonds is between 1.69% - 1.70% [74]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar, cathode copper, and Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased compared to the previous week, while the BDI index increased. The CCFI index decreased, and the prices of pork and glass also declined, while the price of vegetables increased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.14 [84]. 3.6 Market Outlook - The bond market may continue to show a steepening trend. The strategy of "shortening portfolio duration + preferentially allocating old bonds" is recommended, and steepening the interest rate curve is also a cost - effective option. Specific trading varieties can consider 250011 and 2500002 [89].

Core Viewpoint - The White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the Federal Reserve's actions are "very, very slow" and emphasized the need for the Fed to return to the "curve where interest rates should be" [1] Group 1 - U.S. inflation data has been consistently good [1] - The Federal Reserve is urged to adjust its approach to interest rates [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the fixed income market and the broader financial environment in 2025, focusing on monetary policy, liquidity conditions, and credit supply dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Shift**: In Q2 2025, the central bank's monetary policy significantly shifted to align with fiscal policy, leading to a notable decrease in the funding center [1][2]. 2. **Liquidity Pressure**: The upcoming tax period in mid to late July is expected to create liquidity pressure, although the probability of credit growth deviating from macroeconomic trends in Q3 is low [1][4]. 3. **Government Bonds Supply**: The total supply of local government special bonds and national bonds is projected to be between 1.1 to 1.2 trillion yuan, increasing to 1.4 to 1.5 trillion yuan in August and September [1][5]. 4. **Insurance Fund Dynamics**: Due to a slowdown in life insurance premium growth, the demand for pure debt instruments is expected to decrease in the second half of the year [1][6]. 5. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The current interest rate curve is anticipated to shift, with expectations for a rate cut forming after September [1][7]. 6. **Credit Asset Outlook**: New funds are expected to support credit assets in the second half of the year, but low credit spreads may lead to redemptions [3][13]. 7. **Bank Wealth Management Products**: In the first half of 2025, bank wealth management products were primarily allocated to short-term deposits, with a lack of incremental funds [10]. 8. **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment remains optimistic for Q3, despite challenges such as potential redemptions and spread adjustments [14]. Additional Important Insights - **Structural Opportunities**: There is a need to focus on structural opportunities and differences among asset types, particularly in the context of limited credit supply [1][8][6]. - **Trading Activity in Rural Commercial Banks**: Trading activity in rural commercial banks has decreased, with investors focusing more on strategic choices rather than frequent trading due to low interest rates and high volatility [9]. - **Public Fund Performance**: Public funds and other products showed significant performance in May and June 2025, with particular attention on the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF [11][12]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and expectations of the fixed income market and related financial dynamics in 2025.

Group 1: Market Trends - In June, bond market yields declined amid a shift from negative to positive sentiment, with significant downward movement in yields for government bonds with maturities of 3 years and below, indicating renewed upward potential for the bond market[1] - The bond market is expected to experience seasonal liquidity easing in July, with historical data showing that July often represents a low point for funding rates throughout the year[2] - The net issuance of government bonds in July is projected to be between 1.46 trillion and 1.60 trillion yuan, maintaining a relatively high level and potentially impacting market liquidity[2] Group 2: Institutional Behavior - Institutional investors, particularly in the insurance sector, may provide significant support to the bond market in July, with expectations of a potential reduction in the preset interest rate below 2.25%, which could lead to increased premium income[3] - Bank wealth management products are anticipated to see an increase in scale, potentially reaching a growth of over 1 trillion yuan in July, driven by favorable market conditions[3] - Despite rising funding costs at the end of June, the banking system's funding supply increased, indicating a potential for additional liquidity to flow into the bond market[3] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - The economic growth outlook remains mixed, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5.0% in Q2, but consumer demand remains weak, as evidenced by a record low of 572.3 billion yuan in new household loans from January to May 2025[4] - Export activity showed signs of marginal recovery, with container throughput reaching 6.72 million units in June, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 5.3%[4] - Retail sales growth is relatively strong, with automobile sales increasing by 24% year-on-year in June, although overall consumer demand is still lagging[4] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Expectations for interest rate cuts have weakened, with the central bank's recent statements dampening market anticipation for further monetary easing[6] - The bond market may face volatility due to fluctuations in the stock market and uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, particularly with the upcoming deadline for tariff exemptions on July 9[6] - The potential for a significant increase in government bond supply in July could create pressure on the bond market, although central bank interventions may mitigate this risk[6]