★ 宏观动态 ★ 外交部：维护霍尔木兹海峡及其附近水域安全稳定符合国际社会共同利益 外交部发言人毛宁3月4日表示，霍尔木兹海峡及其附近水域是重要的国际货物和能源贸易通道，维护这一地区 的安全稳定符合国际社会的共同利益。中方敦促各方立即停止军事行动，避免紧张事态进一步升级，防止局势 动荡对全球经济造成更大影响。 国家统计局：2月制造业采购经理指数为49%，比上月下降0.3个百分点 国家统计局发布数据，2月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，制造业景气 水平有所回落。2月份，非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比上月上升0.1个百分点，非制造业景气水平有所改 善。2月份，综合PMI产出指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体较上月有 所放缓。 上期所：调整燃料油期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例 3月4日，上海期货交易所发布关于调整燃料油期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例的通知。自2026年 3月4日（星期三）收盘结算时起，涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例调整如下：燃料油期货fu2605、fu2606、 fu2607、fu2608合约的涨跌 ...

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and awarded amount of 315 billion yuan. Additionally, a 3000 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation was carried out, indicating a total of 6000 billion yuan in reverse repos over two days to support liquidity during the Spring Festival [1][3] - The interbank market showed a more relaxed liquidity environment, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping over 4 basis points to around 1.27%. Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system fell to 1.25%, indicating ample supply [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.65% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market was around 1.590% [7] Bond Market - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, reflecting a downward trend in bond prices [9] - The closing prices for government bond futures showed slight increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.42%, the 10-year by 0.08%, the 5-year by 0.03%, and the 2-year by 0.02% [14] Global Macro - The European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause since June of the previous year. However, no clear signals regarding future policy direction were provided, leading to expectations of stable monetary policy in the near term [14]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total bid and winning amount of 315 billion yuan [1] - Additionally, a 3000 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation was carried out, with a total of 6000 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos conducted over two days to support the liquidity during the Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market is experiencing a more relaxed funding environment, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping over 4 basis points to around 1.27% [3] - Overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system fell to 1.25%, indicating ample supply, while non-bank institutions borrowed overnight against credit bonds at rates below 1.5% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 3.65% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit in the secondary market is around 1.590% [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank rate bonds have mostly decreased, with specific yields for various maturities showing declines, such as the 1-year government bond yield at 1.3125% and the 10-year yield at 1.8010% [10] - The data indicates a general downward trend in yields across different types of bonds, including government bonds and policy bank bonds [10] Group 5: Recent Economic Indicators - The Asian Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 is reported at 51%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion in the manufacturing sector [14] - The global manufacturing PMI increased by 1.5 percentage points to 51% in January [14] Group 6: Global Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank has maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate cuts since June of the previous year, with officials closely monitoring the impact of euro appreciation on export competitiveness and inflation [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - 1 - month official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, back below the boom - bust line, with a decline in manufacturing market demand; construction and service business activity indices were weak; the Ministry of Finance will maintain necessary levels of fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure; the central bank governor said there is room for RRR and interest rate cuts this year; the Wande All - A Index was slightly weak this week, and capital interest rates fell compared to last week; treasury bond futures rose overall, and may fluctuate slightly upward in the short term [39] - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, most treasury bond futures main contracts showed a trend of hitting bottom and then rebounding. The 30 - year variety was strong. The 30 - year treasury bond rose 0.63% for the whole week, the 10 - year rose 0.12%, the 5 - year rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year rose 0.06% [5] - As of February 6, compared with January 30, the treasury bond spot yield curve shifted downward overall, with the ultra - long end shifting down slightly more. The 2 - year yield dropped 2 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year dropped 2 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year remained flat at 1.81%, and the 30 - year dropped 4 BP to 2.25% [7] 3.2 January Manufacturing PMI Data - January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, back in the contraction range, with large enterprises continuing to expand and medium - and small - sized enterprises' prosperity declining [10] - The production index was 50.6% and the new order index was 49.2%, indicating continued expansion in production but a decline in market demand. The procurement volume index was 48.7%, falling below the boom - bust line [13] - The new export order index was 47.8% and the import index was 47.3%. The new export order index declined compared to December [16] - The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index were 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, both expanding compared to the previous month. The average value of the South China Industrial Products Index rose 4.4% month - on - month and fell 4.75% year - on - year [18] - The raw material inventory index was 47.4% and the finished product inventory index was 48.6%. Inventory remained stable, and the profits of large - scale manufacturing enterprises increased in 2025 [21] - The manufacturing employment index was 48.1%, with little change in the employment prosperity level. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%, indicating a decline in future prosperity expectations [24] 3.3 January Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index Data - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%. The construction business activity index was 48.8%, and the service business activity index was 49.5%, falling below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month [27] - The construction new order index was 40.1%, the employment index was 41.1%, and the business activity expectation index was 49.8%, all showing a decline [30] - The service new order index was 47.1%, the employment index was 47.0%, and the business activity expectation index was 57.1%, slightly rising. The input price index was 49.7% and the sales price index was 48.9%. Financial and insurance industries were active, while the real estate industry was weak [33] 3.4 Capital Interest Rate and Market Operation - This week, capital interest rates fell compared to last week. DR001 dropped to 1.275%, DR007 dropped to 1.46%, and the one - year AAA inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rate dropped to 1.59%. On February 4, the central bank conducted 800 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with 700 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase maturing on the same day [36]

Group 1 - The Asian manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 is reported at 51%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking nine consecutive months above 50% [1] - China's manufacturing PMI has dropped below 50%, while India's PMI remains above 55%. ASEAN countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines have PMIs above 52%, and Malaysia, Singapore, and Myanmar are at or above 50% [1] - The overall index indicates that Asian manufacturing continues to remain in the expansion zone, with a stable recovery expected to play a significant role in global economic growth in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that emerging markets and developing economies will continue to be the main engines of global economic growth, with growth rates expected to remain above 4.0% from 2026 to 2027 [1] - The Asian Development Bank forecasts a 4.6% economic growth rate for developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 [1] - Asian countries are enhancing their economic recovery through strengthening endogenous growth drivers, deepening regional cooperation, and increasing supply chain resilience [1] Group 3 - The global manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 51%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the stock market (Wande A-Share Index) generally declined, with the Wande A-Share Index closing down 1.11% compared to the previous trading day, and the trading volume shrank from 2.50 trillion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan. Meanwhile, the main contracts of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rising 0.38%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.04%. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short - term, and the performance of the stock index should be continuously monitored. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Thursday, the main contract of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, fluctuated horizontally in the morning, and rose in the afternoon. The 30 - year variety showed a strong trend. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.38%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.04% [1]. - **Stock Market**: On Thursday, the Wande A - Share Index opened lower, fluctuated horizontally throughout the day, closed down 1.11% compared to the previous trading day, forming a doji candlestick, and the trading volume shrank from 2.50 trillion yuan to 2.19 trillion yuan [2]. 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market Operations**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 354 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 64.5 billion yuan [1]. - **Funding Market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32% (the same as the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48% (compared to 1.49% in the previous trading day) [1]. - **Cash Bond Market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds dropped 1.35 basis points to 1.36%, the 5 - year dropped 0.62 basis points to 1.57%, the 10 - year dropped 0.24 basis points to 1.82%, and the 30 - year dropped 1.20 basis points to 2.27% [1]. - **US Unemployment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 231,000, compared with an estimate of 212,000 and a previous value of 209,000. The number of continued claims for unemployment benefits in the week of January 24 was 1.844 million, with an estimate of 1.85 million [1]. - **European Central Bank Interest Rates**: On February 5, the European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, in line with market expectations [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - **Economic Data**: The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous value: 49.7%) [1]. - **Policy Signals**: On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure would be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". Recently, the governor of the central bank said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of treasury bond trading in liquidity management, and keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2].

Core Viewpoint - In January, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - Manufacturing production continues to expand, but certain sectors like petroleum, coal, and automotive are below the critical point, indicating a slowdown in market demand and production [1] - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices rose to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, reflecting an overall improvement in manufacturing market price levels [1] Group 2: Company Size and Sector Performance - The PMI for large enterprises remains above the critical point at 50.3%, demonstrating ongoing support for the manufacturing sector [1] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, indicating a positive development trend in related industries [1] Group 3: Business Expectations - Business expectations remain optimistic, with the production and operation activity expectation index at 52.6%, continuing to exceed the critical point [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile". [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. Traders are recommended to conduct band - trading operations. [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board. By the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.10%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.03%. [1] - The Wande All - A Index opened higher on Tuesday, fell in the morning session and then rose in a volatile manner. It closed 2.12% higher than the previous trading day, with a turnover of 2.57 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.61 trillion yuan. [2] 3.2 Important Information - In the open market on Tuesday, the central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan on the day. [1] - In the money market on Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% for the whole day, compared with 1.36% on the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50%, compared with 1.49% on the previous trading day. [1] - In the cash bond market on Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year government bonds fell 0.80 BP to 1.38%, the 5 - year fell 0.47 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year fell 0.28 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.28%. [1] - The central bank announced that it will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months on February 4 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1] - The central bank's net investment in government bond trading in the open market in January was 100 billion yuan. [1] - The No. 1 Central Document, "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization", was released. [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous month: 49.7%). [1] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". [1] - Recently, the central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote a low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1]

Core Viewpoint - In January, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, reflecting a decline in manufacturing activity and indicating a contraction in the sector [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - The manufacturing sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with some industries entering a traditional off-peak period and insufficient market demand contributing to the decline in PMI [1] - Production continues to expand in certain sectors, but industries such as petroleum, coal, and automotive are showing reduced market demand, leading to a decrease in production [1] Group 2: Price Indices - The price indices for major raw materials and factory output have both increased, with the purchasing price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, marking rises of 3 percentage points and 1.7 percentage points respectively from the previous month [1] Group 3: Enterprise Size and Performance - Large enterprises maintain a PMI above the critical point at 50.3%, indicating ongoing support for the manufacturing sector [1] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, suggesting a positive development trend in related industries [1] Group 4: Business Expectations - Enterprises remain optimistic about future production and operational activities, with the production and business activity expectation index at 52.6%, continuing to exceed the critical point [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the A-share market, with the Hedge Fund Manager A-share Confidence Index at 125.50, reflecting a 0.45% increase from January 2026 [2][5]. Core Insights - The confidence index shows an upward trend, suggesting that hedge fund managers have increased confidence in the A-share market for February 2026 compared to January 2026 [2][5]. - The average position of private equity managers in subjective long positions is reported at 79%, which is a 1% increase from the end of December 2025 [5][7]. - The report highlights that 94% of private equity funds are positioned at 50% or more, with 24.6% fully invested or using leverage, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous month [5][8]. Summary by Sections A-share Confidence Index and Private Equity Positions - The A-share Confidence Index for February 2026 is 125.50, up 0.45% from January 2026, indicating a rise in confidence among private equity managers [2][5]. - The average position of subjective long strategy private equity funds is 79%, up 1% from December 2025 [5][7]. - 94% of private equity funds are above 50% in their positions, with 48.1% in the 80% or more range, an increase of 2.8% from the previous month [5][8]. Confidence Indicators - The trend expectation confidence indicator for February 2026 is 134.94, up 1.0% from the previous month, with 5.2% of fund managers extremely optimistic [13][14]. - 61.3% of fund managers are optimistic, a rise of 2.7%, while 32% hold a neutral view, down 2% [13][14]. - The investment plan indicator for position adjustments is 111.34, down 0.6%, with 67.7% of managers planning to maintain their positions [13][14]. Market Review and Outlook - In 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 485.186 billion, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year, with private investment down 6.4% [17]. - The retail sales total for 2025 was 501.202 billion, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-on-year, with online retail sales growing by 8.6% [18]. - The report notes a stable export performance, with total exports for 2025 reaching 377.187 billion USD, showing resilience against external pressures [19].