F F F 2026 年 01 月 12 日 申万宏源研究微信服务 再议宏微观 "温差" ? — "月度前瞻"系列专题之六 一问：2025 年底经济的"温差"？ PMI 等宏观数据走强，但生产、消费等中观指标却走弱。 温差一：2025 年底反映生产的开工指标转弱，但制造业 PMI 超季节性回升。2025 年底，高炉开 工、PTA 开工、货运量等指标有所回落；制造业 PMI 在 12 月却回升 0.9 个百分点至 50.1%。从行 业来看，黑色压延、化学原料等传统行业 12 月 PMI 均有回落，与高炉、PTA 开工表现一致；但电 气机械、医药等新兴行业 PMI 有所回升，大类行业中高技术制造业、装备制造业 PMI 均有改善。 温差二：消费高频在 2025 年底进一步走低，但消费品行业 PMI 却回升至景气区间。2025 年四季 度以来，汽车、家电零售量呈现回落态势，12 月以来进一步下行。但整体消费品行业 PMI 在 12 月 有所回升、较前月上行 1 个百分点至 50.4%；表现较强的行业如纺织服装服饰业、PMI 回升 4.5 个 百分点至 57.5%。 温差三：映射投资的沥青开工率、水泥出货率等未有显著改 ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强 、耿佩璇 摘要 一问：2025年底经济的"温差"？PMI等宏观数据走强，但生产、消费等中观指标却走弱。 温差一：2025年底反映生产的开工指标转弱，但制造业PMI超季节性回升。 2025年底，高炉开工、PTA 开工、货运量等指标有所回落；制造业PMI在12月却回升0.9个百分点至50.1%。从行业来看，黑色压延、 化学原料等传统行业12月PMI均有回落，与高炉、PTA开工等回落表现一致；但电气机械、医药等新兴行 业PMI有所回升，大类行业中高技术制造业、装备制造业PMI均有改善。 温差二：消费高频在2025年底进一步走低，但消费品行业PMI却回升至景气区间。 2025年四季度以来， 汽车、家电零售量呈现回落态势，12月以来进一步下行。但整体消费品行业PMI在12月有所回升、较前 月上行1个百分点至50.4%；表现较强的行业如纺织服装服饰业、PMI回升4.5个百分点至57.5%。 温差三：映射投资的沥青开工率、水泥出货率等未有显著改善，但建筑业PMI年底却冲高。 2025年底， 映射地产投资的水泥出货率、螺纹钢表观消费量均位于低位，12月同比分别为-1.8%、-10%；映射 ...

来源：Kevin策略研究 导读 924给中国资产重估开了个好头，但四季度内需和地产加速走弱也无法视而不见。如何让中国资产重估"行稳致远"，市场观点出现分歧： 乐观者并非不认可地产和内需趋弱，但认为不再重要，因为新动能和资金叙事就可以支撑；谨慎者则认为不容忽视。 整体宏观不好也完全可以有牛市，这无需质疑，这在日本90年代就出现过，而且是三波#"被忽略"的牛市。但如何让牛市和修复更加可持 续且基础更广泛，只盯着新动能、资金叙事和短期刺激，可能就还不够。从一个更长维度，兜底旧动能同样重要，会通过需求延后修复 进程，并通过负债端拖累资产端存款搬家潜力的释放，所以不考虑负债端只讨论资产端储蓄的空间是静态且无效的。 日本当时为何能耽误20年，为何又能在2010年后开启长达十几年的牛市？这中间的很多偶然与必然，客观现实与政策选择就有很多可借 鉴之处在。如何让中国资产重估"行稳致远"？这正是我们在本篇文章里想探讨的问题。 Abstract 首页摘要 上世纪九十年代日本三轮牛市的经验告诉我们，即便在通缩环境、地产下行和债务问题等多重压力下，依靠政策刺激和资金入市也可以 促成牛市。但如果结构问题迟迟没解决（甚至因短期修复延后了解 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中金点睛 摘要 上世纪九十年代日本三轮牛市的经验告诉我们，即便在通缩环境、地产下行和债务问题等多重压力下， 依靠政策刺激和资金入市也可以促成牛市。但如果结构问题迟迟没解决（甚至因短期修复延后了解决的 进程），当短期刺激的效果逐步衰减后，结构问题的拖拽也会逐渐显现，这也是为何日本当时可以出现 三轮牛市，但却总是被打断，往往持续一年多左右就结束的原因之一（《"被忽略"的牛市》）。 日本上世纪九十年代的市场反弹不断被打断，经济修复不断被延后，除了科技方向偏航之外，另一个重 要的原因在于未能兜底居民资产负债表和解决民生疲弱等结构性问题，且债务化解偏慢，又恰巧遭遇了 多次外部危机放大了内部矛盾，最终酿成了"失去的二十年"。相反，2000年尤其是2010年后，当政策大 举向民生倾斜并解决债务问题后，就迎来了长达十多年的长期牛市。 那么，日本当时面临怎样的结构性问题？政策一开始有何不足，以致修复进程一再延后？后续政策又做 了哪些改变，得以走出失去的二十年？ "924"行情给中国资产重估开了个好头，展望未来，如何让中国资产重估"行稳致远"，基础更为牢靠 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 上世纪九十年代日本三轮牛市的经验告诉我们，即便在通缩环境、地产下行和债务问题等多重压力下， 依靠政策刺 激和 资金入市也可以促成 牛市 。 但如果结构问题迟迟没解决（甚至因短期修复延后了解决的进程）， 当短期刺激的效果逐步衰减后，结构问题的拖拽也会逐渐显现 ， 这也是为何日本当时可以出现三轮牛市，但却总是被打断，往往持续一年多左右就结束的原因之一（ 《"被忽略"的牛市》 ）。 日本上世纪九十年代的市场反弹不断被打断，经济修复不断被延后， 除了科技方向偏航之外，另一个重要的原因在于未能兜底居民资产负债 表和解决民生疲弱等结构性问题，且债务化解偏慢， 又恰巧遭遇了多次外部危机放大了内部矛盾，最终酿成了"失去的二十年"。 相反，2000 年尤其是2010年后，当政策大举向民生倾斜并解决债务问题后，就迎来了长达十多年的长期牛市。 那么，日本当时面临怎样的结构性问题？政策一开始有何不足，以致修复进程一再延后？后续政策又做了哪些改变，得以走出失去的二十年？ "924"行情给中国资产重估开了个好头，展望未来，如何让中国资产重估"行稳致远"，基础更为牢靠、范围更加广泛？ 从"被 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various investment strategies and outlooks for the A-share market in 2026, highlighting the expected recovery in corporate earnings and the influence of macroeconomic factors on market performance [2][6][8][11][14][19][27]. Group 1: Earnings Growth and Market Trends - Citic Securities predicts a "U-shaped" earnings growth trajectory for A-share companies, with a slowdown expected before a recovery driven by external factors such as US-China trade agreements and midterm elections [4]. - CICC emphasizes that the restructuring of international order and China's industrial innovation will support A-share performance, with a balanced market style anticipated [6]. - UBS forecasts that A-share corporate earnings growth could rise to 8% in 2026, driven by nominal GDP growth and improved profit margins due to supportive policies [27]. Group 2: Investment Themes and Sector Focus - Key investment themes identified include the global pricing power in manufacturing, the expansion of Chinese companies overseas, the continuation of the tech trend with AI, and the potential for domestic demand recovery [4][6][11][14]. - Guotai Junan suggests focusing on sectors with clear upward trends, such as AI, renewable energy, and traditional manufacturing, which are expected to benefit from structural changes in the economy [19]. - The article highlights the importance of sectors like machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and electric equipment as significant opportunities for growth [4][6][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Policy Implications - The article notes that the A-share market is likely to transition from valuation-driven to earnings-driven dynamics, with traditional industries expected to see a recovery in profit growth [14][16]. - Analysts suggest that policies aimed at improving competition in traditional sectors and fostering new industries will create additional demand and investment opportunities [14][19]. - The anticipated increase in foreign investment and the ongoing capital market reforms are expected to enhance market stability and resilience [6][19][27].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 【头条要闻】 马杜罗将于1月5日在纽约首次出庭 据美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）报道，被美国强行控制的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其妻子弗洛雷斯将于 当地时间1月5日在美国纽约首次出庭。 据报道，二人将在纽约南区联邦法院出庭，该院发言人表示，出庭时间预计在当地时间5日12时。 纽约南区联邦法院在当地时间3日公布的替代起诉书，指控马杜罗其多名家人及内阁成员涉嫌"毒品贩 运"等罪名。 报道称，目前马杜罗被关押在位于纽约布鲁克林的大都会拘留中心。 严重关切！外交部回应美强行控制委总统夫妇 作为美国企业界最高产且最具耐心的交易撮合者之一，巴菲特在执掌伯克希尔-哈撒韦的最后一年，始 终坚守自己的投资准则。受市场持续走高影响，大规模并购机会减少，伯克希尔因此减持股票规模超过 增持，并不断囤积现金。 外交部发言人就美国强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇答记者问。 问：据报道，1月3日，美国派兵强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇并移送出境。多国政府发声对此表示 反对。中方对此有何评论？ 答：中方对美方强行控制马杜罗总统夫妇并移送出境表示严重关切，美方行径明显违反国际法和国际关 系基本准则，违 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, under the global challenge of debt issues, there are three main ways to address debt: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-driven debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-driven debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-driven debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures. Despite weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI, the net asset return on equity (ROE) of non-financial enterprises has stabilized over several quarters [1]. - The profit share of the eight major advanced manufacturing industries has increased to 38%, while the overseas revenue share of companies operating abroad has risen to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points. These factors are likely to drive the overall ROE of A-shares to recover after stabilization [1]. - Current valuation increases are relatively restrained, with limited overextension. If profits recover, there is still room for valuation improvement. Additionally, the migration of deposits from insurance and high-net-worth individuals will bring incremental capital [1]. Group 2: Investment Direction - The focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear upward trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and is unlikely to see supply release in the short term. Other areas include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1]. - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1].

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the global debt issue will present three main solutions: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-based debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-based debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-based debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1] Group 1: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures despite ongoing weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI [1] - The net asset return on equity (ROE) for non-financial enterprises in the A-share market has stabilized over several quarters, with profits from eight advanced manufacturing industries now accounting for 38% of total profits [1] - Companies with overseas operations have seen their overseas revenue share increase to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points, which may drive a rebound in overall A-share ROE after stabilization [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Investment focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear prosperity trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and limited short-term supply release [1] - Other sectors to consider include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1] - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1]

[Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-01-04 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 10/24 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 环保 沪深300 | [Table_Author 分析师： ]郭鹏 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260514030003 | | SFC CE No. BNX688 | | 021-38003655 | | guopeng@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 陈龙 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523030004 | | 021-38003623 | | shchenlong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 荣凌琪 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120006 | | 021-38003686 | | ronglingqi@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 陈舒心 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524030004 | | 021-38003790 | | shchenshuxin@gf.com.cn | | 请注意 ...