信心缺失，实质性违约在即，股债双双暴跌。 作者 | 木盒 编辑 | 小白 11月26日晚，万科公告，浦发银行定于12月10日召开万科企业股份有限公司2022年度第四期中期票据 （简称"22万科MTN004"）2025年第一次持有人会议，"为稳妥推进本期债券本息兑付工作，特召开 持有人会议对本期债券展期相关事项进行审议。" 这向外界释放的信号是，万科的债务只能展期偿还了，本质上属于违约，现金流最终还是出现了问 题…… 今日万科A股低开5.09%，其实昨天下午就有征兆，万科股票和债券开始大跌。今早万科债继续暴 跌，"22万科04"跌超41%，"21万科04"跌超36%，"22万科02"跌超28％，均触发盘中临时停牌。 这背后其实是一系列事件串联起来。 今年年初，万科执行董事、总裁、首席执行官祝九胜被公安机关带走。 （市值风云APP） 深圳市地铁集团董事长辛杰接替接替郁亮出任万科董事长，成为同时掌舵深铁与万科的"双料掌门"。 其上任后，深铁集团在2025年1月至9月期间，累计向万科提供股东借款259.41亿元，以缓解其公开市 场债务压力。 然而，2025年9月18日，辛杰在深圳参会期间被相关部门带走调查。10月12 ...

公司积极推进化债工作，1-9 月累计回收政府逾期债权超千亿元，其中 纳入台账部分约占 30%-40%，城市更新领域新签合同额同比增长超过 两位数，达近 3,000 亿元。 Q&A 请介绍一下中国建筑公司近期的经营情况。 今年前 10 个月，中国建筑新签合同额达到 3.6 万亿元，同比增长 1%。其中， 建筑业务合同额为 3.3 万亿元，同比增长 2%；地产业务同比萎缩约 9.5%，合 约销售额为 2,800 亿元。尽管地产业务有所下降，但表现仍优于百强房企或头 部房企。在具体业务方面，房建业务合同额为 2.2 万亿元，同比增长 1.5%； 基础设施业务合同额为 1.1 万亿元，同比增长 3.1%。境外新签合同额也增长 了约 3%。总体来看，公司在前 10 个月的新签订单情况保持基本稳健。 公司前三季度的财务情况如何？ 公司已通过三季报对外披露了前三季度的财务状况。综合当前宏观经济形势和 行业调整周期，建筑企业面临较大挑战。我们希望随着地方债务化解和宏观经 济形势好转，公司整体现金流和应收账款能得到更强支撑，以确保全年经营目 标的完成。 中国建筑 20251126 摘要 中国建筑前 10 个月新签订单保持稳健， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the construction industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the logic of overseas engineering expansion is gradually being realized, with high growth areas showing superior growth. Infrastructure and real estate demand continue to face pressure, while railway and water conservancy investments perform well, with the effects of debt reduction expected to gradually manifest [1][8]. - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are experiencing a significant decline in revenue and performance, but there is a long-term trend of improving operational quality. Many SOEs have shown improvements in profitability, cash flow, and expense ratios, indicating a gradual enhancement in operational quality [2][8]. - The overseas new contract signing is rapidly increasing, demonstrating the effectiveness of the overseas expansion strategy. The contract value and revenue from foreign engineering projects have shown significant year-on-year growth, providing support for domestic construction enterprises [3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Infrastructure investment growth has been declining, with broad infrastructure investment growth dropping from 11.50% in early 2023 to 1.51% by October 2025. Narrow infrastructure investment growth turned negative, indicating a significant slowdown in traditional infrastructure demand [16][17]. - The investment growth in the railway sector remains positive, while road transport investment has been declining due to funding pressures from local governments and construction enterprises [18][20]. 2. Central SOEs Performance - Central SOEs in the infrastructure sector are facing revenue and performance growth challenges, but operational quality is improving. The implementation of debt reduction measures is expected to show fiscal effects by 2026 [2][8]. 3. Overseas Expansion - The overseas contract signing for Chinese construction enterprises has increased significantly, with major state-owned enterprises showing higher growth rates in new contracts compared to the overall market. This trend is expected to support revenue growth in the coming years [3][8]. 4. Regional Investment Trends - In the western region, particularly Xinjiang, fixed asset investment growth is significantly higher than the national average, with major infrastructure projects expected to drive demand growth [6][8]. - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is projected to see substantial investment, with over 400 key projects planned, totaling an investment of 3.47 trillion yuan [6][8]. 5. Cleanroom Engineering Demand - The demand for cleanroom construction is expected to rise due to increased capital expenditure in the AI and semiconductor industries. The cleanroom engineering sector is experiencing rapid growth in orders, particularly from overseas markets [7][8]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that low-valuation central SOEs like China State Construction and China Communications Construction Company are well-positioned for stable returns, with improving operational metrics and increasing dividends [9][8]. - Leading companies in overseas expansion, such as China National Materials and China Steel International, are expected to outperform traditional construction enterprises due to their strong growth in overseas orders [9][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current bull market in A-shares is still ongoing, despite market fluctuations, as it is determined by national policies and the realization of capital market value [4][6]. - The process of debt reduction is still in its early stages, indicating that the market's recovery is complex and slow [4]. - Economic indicators such as consumer spending, housing prices, and private enterprise investment remain weak, suggesting that deflationary pressures have not changed [5][6]. Group 2 - Technical indicators like K-line combinations, moving averages, and trading volume are essential for stock trading, serving as the foundation of technical analysis [11]. - Fundamental analysis focusing on performance and valuation is crucial for value investors, but it may not significantly improve the success rate for most retail investors due to information lag [13][14]. - National policies and geopolitical factors are vital for identifying market trends and investment opportunities, acting as catalysts for bull markets [15]. Group 3 - Understanding broader trends and logical analysis is key to identifying potential high-performing stocks and serves as a basis for long-term investment decisions [17]. - Maintaining the right rhythm and mindset is critical for successful trading, emphasizing the importance of patience and clarity in decision-making [18][19]. - A comprehensive understanding of all the aforementioned factors contributes to an investor's cognitive development, which is essential for achieving higher investment success [20][21][22].

来源：华泰睿思 回顾2025年以来的财政政策运行，一个突出特征是广义财政的明显扩张并没有推动固定资产投资增速的明显改善，1-10月份投资累计增速下滑1.7%，我们 认为主因在于大量财政资源用于化债、清偿企业拖欠和土储等暂时不产生或滞后产生实物工作量的存量问题上。展望2026年，"十五五"开局之年与"化债 攻坚期"的关键一年双期叠加，我们预计，实施更加积极有为的财政政策，仍然是化解存量、优化增量的题中之义。2026年财政赤字率有望维持在4%左 右，为配合化债等政策推进，新增专项债额度或进一步扩容至5万亿左右，特别国债或仍维持1.8万亿左右的水平。年底的中央经济工作会议是观察当前政 策储备、展望明年政策部署的观察窗口，预计明年会尽量靠前形成实物工作量。 核心观点 2025年财政政策回顾：稳增长与防风险的平衡 预算内收入端弱修复、支出端调结构，预算执行情况基本符合预期。政府性基金收入受土地出让收入下行形成拖累，支出端强劲增长。前10个月政府性基 金收入进度55%，主因国有土地出让收入下滑压力较大。支出端看，受益于今年专项债和特别国债的大量发行，政府性基金支出增速高企。从专项债发行 情况看，总量的扩张和结构的调整是主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on promoting stable growth, improving people's livelihoods, and managing risks under the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a projected narrow fiscal deficit rate exceeding 4% and new local special bonds around 4.6 trillion yuan [1][5][43]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The core feature of China's fiscal policy in 2025 is a shift towards a "people-oriented" expenditure structure, which is reflected in the resilience of consumption and the decline in infrastructure investment since July [1][5]. - On the revenue side, there is a weak recovery in the two accounts, with tight constraints still present. The income from individual income tax and securities transactions has improved, while land transfer income has seen a narrowing decline [5][11]. - On the expenditure side, there is a moderate expansion in total fiscal spending, with a structural shift towards social welfare. The central government's financial support is increasing, but the alignment of financial resources and responsibilities still needs optimization [1][11][15]. Group 2: Key Tasks for 2026 - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on three key tasks: promoting the synergy between social welfare and consumption incentives, addressing the slowdown in external demand, and resolving funding constraints for infrastructure investment [1][21][22]. - Policies such as trade-in programs and childbirth subsidies are expected to continue and be enhanced, with a focus on service consumption, projecting a retail sales growth rate of around 4.5% [2][25]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment and Debt Management - For infrastructure investment and debt management, it is essential to clarify the scale and path of debt management funding, with an estimated need for around 3 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt management and clearing overdue accounts in 2026 [3][29]. - The pressure of interest payments after debt replacement is expected to be manageable due to a low-interest environment, which will help offset the visible interest payment pressure [3][37]. - The growth rate of infrastructure investment is projected to be around 3.5% in 2026, influenced by the constraints of debt management and the pursuit of effective investment [3][41]. Group 4: Fiscal Data Projections for 2026 - The growth rate of broad fiscal spending is expected to be around 4.6%, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate still needing to exceed 4%, and new local special bonds projected at approximately 4.6 trillion yuan [5][43][49]. - The general public budget revenue growth rate is estimated at about 1%, while government fund revenue is expected to decline by around 5% [43][46].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the fiscal policy in the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" will focus on balancing active and sustainable requirements to promote stable growth, improve people's livelihoods, and mitigate risks [1][2] Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2026, the narrow fiscal deficit rate is expected to exceed 4%, with new local special bonds around 4.6 trillion and long-term special government bonds issued at approximately 1.5 trillion [1][3] - The core feature of China's fiscal policy in 2025 is a shift in expenditure structure towards "people's livelihood," which is linked to the resilience of consumption and the decline in infrastructure investment since the third quarter [2] Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - On the revenue side, there is a weak recovery in the two accounts, with continued tight constraints [2] - On the expenditure side, broad fiscal spending is expected to moderately expand, with a structural shift towards social welfare and a decline in infrastructure investment contributing to a drag of at least 2 percentage points [2][3] Key Tasks for 2026 - The fiscal policy will focus on three key tasks: 1. Promoting the synergy between social welfare and consumption incentives 2. Addressing the growth continuity issues due to external demand slowdown 3. Resolving funding constraints for infrastructure investment [2] Infrastructure Investment and Debt Management - For infrastructure investment and debt management, three key questions need to be clarified: 1. The scale and path of debt management funding, with around 3 trillion in special bonds needed for debt management and clearing [3] 2. The potential increase in interest payment pressure post-debt replacement, which may rise but remain manageable due to a low interest rate environment [3] 3. The funding sources and performance of infrastructure investment, with an expected growth rate of around 3.5% in 2026 [3] Overall Fiscal Growth Projections - The overall growth rate of broad fiscal spending is projected to be around 4.6% in 2026, with the narrow fiscal deficit rate needing to exceed 4% [3]

Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal policy for 2026 aims to balance growth, social welfare, and risk prevention, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate expected to exceed 4%[1] - New local special bonds are projected to be around CNY 4.6 trillion, while ultra-long-term special government bonds may be issued at approximately CNY 1.5 trillion[1] Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In 2025, the fiscal structure shifted towards "people's livelihood," with a mild recovery in revenue but continued constraints[2] - Total broad fiscal expenditure is expected to grow by about 4.6% in 2026, with a focus on social welfare and consumption incentives[5] Infrastructure Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to be around 3.5% in 2026, influenced by debt resolution and effective investment strategies[3] - Approximately CNY 3 trillion in special bonds will be needed for debt resolution and clearing overdue payments in 2026[3] Consumer Spending and Social Welfare - Consumer spending is projected to grow at around 4.5%, supported by policies like trade-in programs and birth subsidies[4] - The expected increase in social welfare spending includes a CNY 1,080 billion rise in pensions and CNY 1,000 billion for birth subsidies, which will stimulate consumption[4] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, sluggish recovery in consumer spending, and rising local debt pressures[5] - The fiscal space may be constrained, impacting the effectiveness of the proposed measures[5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The transformation effect of market - oriented business entities remains to be seen, and it is difficult to expect significant incremental bond supply. The supply - demand relationship of traditional credit bonds remains tight, and the pricing of outstanding bonds among market - oriented entities may become more differentiated in the future [3][35] - The concentrated opening of amortized open - end bond funds may directly benefit general credit bonds (such as urban investment bonds and industrial bonds), especially 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds. High - rated (AAA - and above) medium - term notes are recommended as key trading targets in the future [7][75][76] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Platform Market - Oriented Transformation - **Local Bond Issuance for Debt Resolution** - Special Refinancing Bonds: As of 2025/11/9, 19,934 billion yuan of the 2 - trillion - yuan debt quota allocated in 2025 has been issued, almost fully utilized. Except for Henan, all other regions have completed the issuance of special refinancing special bonds within the annual quota [14] - Special New Special Bonds: As of 2025/11/9, 12,818 billion yuan of special new special bonds have been issued in 2025, exceeding the annual limit of 80 billion yuan. The excess may be used to repay non - implicit debt corporate arrears [20] - **Progress of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Entities Exiting the Platform** - From 2025/1/1 - 11/9, 179 bond - issuing urban investment entities announced exiting the platform. Most provinces have a progress of over 50%, while Liaoning and Guizhou are relatively lagging, and future debt - resolution resources may be tilted towards them [24][27] - **Effect of Platform Market - Oriented Transformation** - The number of market - oriented business entities is increasing, but it has not led to a significant increase in bond financing scale. The reasons may be weak asset quality, cautious regulatory review, and limited investor recognition. The transformation effect remains to be observed [3][34] 3.2 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale** - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 154.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.5 billion yuan from last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 35.9 billion yuan, an increase of 18.5 billion yuan from last week [36] - **Issuance Cost** - The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds increased by 30BP to over 3%. The issuance rates of other different - rated and different - type bonds fluctuated within 15BP compared to last week [45] 3.3 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume** - This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 51.8 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of asset - backed securities increased by 1.4 billion yuan [46] - **Yield** - The yields of different - rated and different - term credit bonds fluctuated within 3BP compared to last week [49] - **Credit Spreads** - Except for the slight compression of credit spreads in AA+ electrical equipment, light manufacturing, and automobile industries, the credit spreads of other industries and ratings slightly widened. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank capital bonds also had small - scale fluctuations [54] 3.4 This Week's Bond Market News - The implied ratings of 20 bond issues of Lionbridge Financial Leasing (China) Co., Ltd. were downgraded; the implied rating of "Yuanhe 4B" issued by China Power Construction Group Hubei Engineering Co., Ltd. was downgraded; the entity rating of Beijing Aerospace宏图 Information Technology Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the bond rating of "Hongtu Convertible Bond" was also downgraded [72] 3.5 Investment Recommendations - The central bank achieved a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan this week. Except for a few industries, the credit spreads of most industries and ratings slightly widened. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank secondary and perpetual bonds had small - scale fluctuations [74] - The concentrated opening of amortized open - end bond funds may benefit general credit bonds and 3 - 5Y medium - and long - term credit bonds. High - rated medium - term notes are recommended as key trading targets [75][76]

Group 1: Economic and Fiscal Overview - The report analyzes the economic and fiscal data from various regions for the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting different developmental characteristics across regions [2] - Heavy debt regions show weaker economic growth, industrial value-added, and fixed asset investment compared to non-heavy debt regions, indicating a significant disparity in performance [2] - Despite the challenges, heavy debt regions have managed to achieve a higher year-on-year growth rate in general budget revenue compared to non-key regions, while their budget expenditure growth rate is lower [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Jinpan Technology - Jinpan Technology (688676.SH) reported a revenue of 5.194 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.25% [3] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 486 million yuan, up 20.27% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 456 million yuan, increasing by 19.05% [3] - For Q3 2025, Jinpan Technology's revenue reached 2.04 billion yuan, representing an 8.38% year-on-year growth and a 12.61% quarter-on-quarter increase [3]