Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Alumina**: The operating capacity continues to rise, and the daily output reaches new highs, leading to an expected increase in overall supply and a persistent oversupply outlook. Although consumption also increases to some extent, the increment is relatively limited. Short - term spot prices may remain firm due to local supply shortages, but with the cooling of speculative sentiment driven by policy expectations, domestic alumina prices are likely to weaken. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts, overseas mine disturbances, and the specific measures of the new round of the "Ten Key Industries Stable Growth Work Plan" [6]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: On the supply side, there is only a small net increase in addition to replacement capacity. On the demand side, different sectors show obvious differentiation. The automotive industry will still be the main driving force for aluminum demand in August, while photovoltaic demand weakens slightly, and aluminum use in real estate and home appliances exerts a certain drag. Apparent consumption is expected to decline year - on - year from July to August, but there are expectations for the consumption peak season in September. It is predicted that aluminum ingot inventories will reach the peak of off - season inventory accumulation in the range of 560,000 - 600,000 tons around mid - August. In the short term, affected by the further decline in the September interest - rate cut expectation and the fall in alumina futures prices, aluminum prices are weak, with a support level at 20,000. In the long run, factors such as low inventory and supply constraints support an upward shift in the price center. Buying on dips is recommended [6]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum remains high. Affected by the US tariff on aluminum and the exemption of scrap aluminum, the import of US scrap aluminum increases. Coupled with Thailand's suspension of issuing licenses to recycling factories, China's scrap aluminum imports may decline in the future, and scrap aluminum prices still have room to rise, strongly supporting the aluminum alloy price. The fundamentals of casting aluminum alloy are good, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock. The futures market generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the price difference between the two is basically between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. When the price difference widens, an arbitrage operation of going long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai aluminum can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **3.1 Market Review (Part 02)** - In July, alumina futures prices fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, reaching a maximum of 3,577 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 7.94%. Electrolytic aluminum futures also showed a similar trend but with a smaller increase, operating in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 [8][9]. **3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects (Part 03)** - **Tariff Situation**: China and the US extended the tariff for 90 days, and short - term tariff disturbances subsided. The US announced a new version of "reciprocal tariffs" for multiple countries and regions, with the base rate remaining at 10%, and most countries having rates within 20% except Canada [12][13]. - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, and Powell's attitude was hawkish. Two Fed governors opposed maintaining the interest rate and supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July. The Fed is still weighing the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may further decline due to strong US economic and employment data [15][17][19]. - **US Economic Data**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate increased by 3%. The core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year in June. The strong economic and employment data indicate that there is still a risk of inflation rising, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further adjusted downward [19]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: China's second - quarter GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment was 24.8654 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points seasonally. The Politburo meeting emphasized that macro - policies should continue to exert force in the second half of the year, and a series of policies are expected to support industrial product prices [25]. **3.3 Fundamental Aspects (Part 04)** - **Bauxite Supply**: Domestic bauxite supply is relatively loose despite some disturbances. In June 2025, domestic bauxite production was 5.1933 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 203,600 tons. In July, production in some regions was restricted by rainfall. In Guinea, although some mines resumed production, the rainy - season impact led to a decline in July's bauxite shipments. However, China's bauxite imports increased significantly in the first half of the year, and port inventories also increased, so the import price is expected to have limited rebound [27][32]. - **Alumina Supply and Demand**: As of late July, the national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, reaching a new high for the year. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina and imported 101,000 tons. The supply is expected to remain in an oversupply situation. Low warehouse receipts support alumina futures prices, but attention should be paid to the changes in speculative sentiment [35][37][39]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum maintains high profits, with an expected profit of over 3,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year. The supply may increase slightly, but overall changes are not significant. Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity has no obvious changes recently, and if all overseas capacity is put into production as scheduled, the output growth rate is expected to reach 3% - 5% from 2026 - 2027 [42][45][50]. - **Downstream Consumption**: - **Processing Enterprises**: The average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors show different trends, and the aluminum foil sector may reduce production in August. The aluminum cable sector is expected to recover in the second half of August [54]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In June, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity decreased, but the power grid investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, driving the demand for aluminum rods [59]. - **Real Estate**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate sector remains weak. From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and various indicators such as new construction area and completion area also declined [62]. - **Automotive Industry**: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively, and new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The automotive industry is expected to continue to drive aluminum consumption growth [66]. - **Home Appliances**: In August, the total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 4.9% year - on - year. Although the production plan of air conditioners still shows a year - on - year decline, the decline is expected to narrow [70]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventories have rebounded to a more than three - and - a - half - month high, and SHFE aluminum inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks. Aluminum ingot social inventories are accumulating, but the increase is within the seasonal range, and the current inventory level is still relatively low [73][76]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum procurement market is tight. The price is supported by factors such as import restrictions, limited domestic supply growth, and concentrated procurement by large enterprises. The price is expected to rise, and the price difference between domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level [80][83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of alumina may decline due to increased supply, but high - cost capacity's full - cost range could be a theoretical support. If policies lead to a significant drop in the operating rate, the price may rise further. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply has only a small net increase, and the demand is differentiated. The price is expected to rise after corrections, and the low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium [4][5][105] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary - **Alumina**: If the new policy has no strong impact on alumina production or new capacity, the price may decline due to supply - demand surplus. The high - cost capacity's full - cost range (3000 - 3100 yuan) could be the theoretical support. If the policy causes a supply shortage, the price may rise [4] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply has only a small net increase. The demand in transportation and power electronics will drive consumption, while photovoltaic demand weakens slightly, and real estate and household appliances drag. The price is expected to rise after corrections, and the low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Unilateral trading: Alumina between 3000 - 3600 yuan; aluminum between 20200 - 21200 yuan. Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities when the spread between the first and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum is between 40 - 70. Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] 3.2 Second Part: Policy Expectations Expand Price Fluctuations, Focus on the Change of Alumina Fundamental Contradictions - **Bauxite Supply**: Domestic bauxite prices are stable, and attention should be paid to non - seasonal impacts. In Guinea, although the rainy season affects shipments, the resumption of mining in some areas offsets the previous production reduction, and the supply is expected to be in surplus. The import price of bauxite is expected to have limited rebound [8][10] - **Alumina Fundamentals**: The supply - demand surplus of alumina has increased. The operating capacity has reached a new high, while the increase in electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is small. The import volume of alumina may increase in the second half of the year. The theoretical profit of alumina plants is expected to expand in July. After the long - term contracts are replenished, pay attention to the increase in warehouse receipts [20][24][29] - **Price Logic**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the alumina price is expected to return to the fundamental logic. Wait for the policy to be implemented to assess its impact on alumina supply and price [36][42] 3.3 Third Part: The Influence of Fundamental Logic on Price is Expected to Increase, Focus on the Inventory Inflection Point in August - **Macro Influence on Aluminum Price**: The influence of the US tariff and domestic policies on aluminum prices is limited. The influence of macro factors on aluminum prices is expected to decline, and the focus should be on demand growth and inventory levels [44][49] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Supply**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains high, and capacity replacement is still in progress. Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity is expected to increase in 2026 - 2027 [50][55] - **Inventory Inflection Point**: The peak of domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to be between 56 - 600,000 tons. The low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium. LME aluminum has been accumulating inventory recently, but the basis has not shown a significant discount, indicating a tight supply - demand situation overseas [60][73] - **Terminal Consumption**: New energy, transportation, and power fields will drive aluminum demand, while real estate and household appliances will drag. The export of aluminum products is expected to decline seasonally in the second half of the year [76][89][101] 3.4 Fourth Part: Outlook and Strategy Recommendation for the Future Market - **Alumina**: After the speculative sentiment fades, the price will return to the fundamental logic. If the policy has no strong impact on production or new capacity, the price may decline. If the policy causes a supply shortage, the price may rise [105] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply has only a small net increase, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory will drive the expansion of the monthly spread and basis premium. The price is expected to rise after corrections [112]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short - term, policy expectations have a greater impact on coal and coal - chemical industries than fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons. Although 7 - month top - dressing demand supports prices, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand doesn't supplement, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1796 yuan/ton on July 24, up 0.96% from July 23; UR05 was 1804 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; UR09 was 1785 yuan/ton, up 0.68% [1]. - Domestic spot prices: In most regions, prices decreased. For example, in Shandong, it dropped from 1830 yuan/ton to 1810 yuan/ton, a 1.09% decline; in Henan, it fell from 1850 yuan/ton to 1830 yuan/ton, a 1.08% decline [1]. - Upstream costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) and melamine in various regions remained stable [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 37 yuan/ton to 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton [1]. - Spread: The 01 - 05 spread increased from - 14 yuan/ton to - 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1775 yuan/ton, the highest was 1796 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1768 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1785 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1782 yuan/ton. The position volume was 173,791 lots [1]. 3.4 Fundamental Situation - Supply: Urea supply pressure is high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventory is slightly decreasing, mainly due to increased port collection. Upstream enterprise inventory is still around 750,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The top - dressing demand in July supports prices, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient, prices will face downward pressure [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][5][6] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1][7][9] - L: Cautiously bullish [1][10][12] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1][14][15] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1][17][18] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1][20][21] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1][23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1][26][27] - Glass: Cautiously bullish [2][30][31] - Soda ash: Cautiously bullish [2][32][33] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2][35][36] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2][37] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Strong reality and weak expectation, focus on OPEC's production increase and US production changes. Oil prices are in the second half of the peak season, with increasing supply - surplus pressure and a downward trend [1][5][6] - LPG: Narrow - range oil price fluctuations, recovering downstream chemical demand, and a short - term rebound in liquefied gas [7][8][9] - L: Driven by policy expectations, with short - term volatility biased upwards following policy expectations and long - term high production limiting the rebound space [10][11][12] - PP: Driven by policy expectations, following market sentiment for a rebound, with short - term volatility biased upwards and long - term third - quarter production pressure limiting the upside [14][15] - PVC: The "anti - involution" trading continues, with short - term sentiment and cost supporting the bottom, but the weak fundamental pattern limits the rebound space [17][18] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and with macro - policy positives, focus on the opportunity to go long on dips [20][21] - PTA/PR: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase with new device production, and demand is weakly bottoming out. Short - term "anti - involution" policies bring supply - side positives [23][24] - Ethylene glycol: Domestic and foreign device changes are small, demand is in the off - season, and there is support from a strong basis and low inventory. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips [26][27] - Glass: Fundamental improvement, with short - term macro - industrial policy expectations providing support, and the price center of the futures market moving upwards [30][31] - Soda ash: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the futures price is pulled up, but there is a large supply - surplus pressure and the market follows commodity sentiment [32][33] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, demand is improving, and the futures price is supported by macro - policy expectations and downstream alumina price trends [35][36] - Methanol: Supply - demand relationship has improved, with cost support and a bullish trend in the short term [2][37] - Urea: Production is expected to increase, demand is improving, and there are short - term macro - policy positives and export speculation possibilities [2] - Asphalt: Cost - side oil prices are weakly fluctuating, with sufficient raw material supply and bearish fundamentals [2] - Propylene: Considering the "anti - involution" trading, the sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on a single - side basis [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.20%, Brent up 0.78%, and SC up 0.08% [4] - **Basic Logic**: Weak expectation and strong reality, with OPEC's production increase pressure gradually releasing. Supply - side focuses on US production changes. EU sanctions on Russia and Norwegian production decline. Chinese imports increase, and IEA has supply - demand forecasts. US inventory data shows changes [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is in surplus, and the price range is expected to be 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, it is in narrow - range fluctuations. Light - position short positions and buying call options are recommended [6] LPG - **Market Review**: On July 24, the PG main contract closed at 3994 yuan/ton, up 0.55%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged [7] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side oil prices are in a narrow - range tug - of - war, and the fundamentals of LPG have improved. Downstream chemical demand is recovering, and the basis is at a high level [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the oil price center is expected to move down, and LPG prices have room for compression. In the short - term, it is bullish. Close previous short positions and go long with a light position [9] L - **Market Review**: Spot prices and futures prices have small fluctuations, with inventory accumulation and a decrease in the main contract's position [11] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based proportion is 20%, and old - capacity proportion is 14%. Short - term volatility is biased upwards following policy expectations, and long - term high production limits the rebound space [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, and industries can sell for hedging. Go long on dips in the short - term [12][13] PP - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise, and the main contract's position increases slightly. Spot prices have small fluctuations [14] - **Basic Logic**: Coal - based proportion is 19%, and old - capacity proportion is 8%. Short - term volatility is biased upwards, and exports are expected to maintain high growth. Long - term third - quarter production pressure limits the upside [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close long positions, and go long on dips in the short - term [15][16] PVC - **Market Review**: Futures prices rise, and the main contract's position decreases. Spot prices increase slightly [17] - **Basic Logic**: Old - capacity proportion is 11%. "Anti - deflation" trading continues, with weak spot price increases and a weak basis. Social inventory has increased for 5 weeks [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close long positions due to high short - term market volatility [18] PX - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [20] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand - side changes are also limited. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are macro - policy positives [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions at low levels and look for opportunities to go long on dips. The price range is [6940 - 7050] [21][22] PTA/PR - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China increased, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [23] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand is weakly bottoming out. Short - term "anti - involution" policies bring supply - side positives [24] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [4830 - 4920] [24][25] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China decreased slightly, and the futures price of the 09 contract increased. The month - spread and basis changed [26] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign device changes are small, demand is in the off - season, and there is support from a strong basis and low inventory [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [4480 - 4600] [27][28] Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market quotes continue to rise, the futures market rises sharply, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [30] - **Basic Logic**: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations and coal - related product price increases, the fundamentals improve, and the price center of the futures market moves upwards [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close long positions after a large increase, and go long based on the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. The price range is [1310 - 1360] [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot quotes increase, the futures market rises, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increases [32] - **Basic Logic**: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the futures price is pulled up, but there is a large supply - surplus pressure and the market follows commodity sentiment [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price center moves upwards, and the moving averages tend to converge. The price range is [1410 - 1460] [32][33] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Flake - caustic spot quotes increase, the futures market rises, the basis weakens, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is approaching saturation, demand is improving, and the futures price is supported by macro - policy expectations and downstream alumina price trends [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price center moves upwards, and the upward slope slows down. The price range is [2640 - 2710] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China decreased, and the futures price of the 09 contract decreased. The basis and month - spread changed [37] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand relationship has improved, with cost support and a bullish trend in the short term [2][37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [2470 - 2520] [2] Urea - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text - **Basic Logic**: Production is expected to increase, demand is improving, and there are short - term macro - policy positives and export speculation possibilities [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips with a light position. The price range is [1770 - 1810] [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text - **Basic Logic**: Cost - side oil prices are weakly fluctuating, with sufficient raw material supply and bearish fundamentals [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go short with a light position. The price range is [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text - **Basic Logic**: Considering the "anti - involution" trading, the sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on a single - side basis [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips. The price range is [6550 - 6800] [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips or implementing a 09 - 01 reverse spread. Although there are issues such as high inventory and low - season demand in the plastics industry, the upcoming release of a new round of stability - growth work plans for key industries and the elimination of old and backward devices are expected to improve market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 24, the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high. The coal price has risen significantly due to production checks. With new capacity coming on - stream and restart of some devices, the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. Considering the upcoming policies and market sentiment improvement, it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated upward with a decrease in positions, closing at 7385 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased by 16,764 lots to 371,617 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 30 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 7160 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9280 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7620 - 8250 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On July 24, the number of overhaul devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of July 18, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%. The agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 15,000 tons to 750,000 tons, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high [4] - Raw Materials: Brent crude oil's October contract oscillated around $68/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $830/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC fundamentals are difficult to drive the market upward continuously. After the weakening of macro - sentiment, the PVC rebound is limited. The supply side has high upstream开工 and new capacity, while the demand side has weak domestic demand and neutral exports, and the social inventory is accumulating [3]. - The market sentiment of caustic soda has been significantly boosted, and the caustic soda futures have been running strongly recently. The supply side has new production expectations, and the demand side has rigid support from the alumina industry, but the non - aluminum demand is weak. The inventory pressure is expected to increase [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5151 yuan/ton (- 109), the East China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (+ 99), and the South China basis is - 131 yuan/ton (+ 29) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 5050 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 5020 yuan/ton (- 80) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 535 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton (- 25), the calcium carbide profit is 87 yuan/ton (- 25), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is - 315 yuan/ton (+ 130), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is - 595 yuan/ton (+ 26), and the PVC export profit is - 16.4 US dollars/ton (- 2.6) [1]. - Inventory and开工: The PVC factory inventory is 36.8 tons (- 1.4), the PVC social inventory is 41.1 tons (+ 1.8), the PVC calcium carbide method开工 rate is 77.52% (+ 0.59%), the PVC ethylene method开工 rate is 68.31% (- 1.92%), and the PVC开工 rate is 74.97% (- 0.10%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 69.6 tons (+ 0.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2644 yuan/ton (- 14), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 50 yuan/ton (+ 14) [1]. - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 830 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1340 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1603 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 459.5 yuan/ton (+ 0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 592.53 yuan/ton (+ 35.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1719.84 yuan/ton (+ 271.52) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 38.39 tons (+ 0.96), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.40 tons (+ 0.04), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 82.60% (+ 2.20%) [2]. - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 83.61% (+ 0.33%), the dyeing and printing开工 rate in East China is 58.89% (+ 0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 84.55% (+ 6.75%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Policy may lead to expectations of eliminating old - fashioned PVC production capacity, but the fundamentals are difficult to drive the market upward. The supply side has high开工 and new capacity, the demand side has weak domestic demand and neutral exports, and the social inventory is accumulating [3]. Caustic Soda - The market sentiment has been boosted by the possible elimination of old - fashioned caustic soda production capacity. The supply side has new production expectations, the demand side has rigid support from the alumina industry, but the non - aluminum demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is expected to increase [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Neutral. The market rebound may be limited due to the cooling of macro - sentiment and insufficient fundamental drivers [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Do reverse spreads when the V09 - 01 spread is high [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Cautiously go long for hedging. The cost support of caustic soda is strengthened, and the caustic soda market is expected to continue to be strong [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1] - L: Cautiously bullish [1] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1] - Glass: Cautiously bullish [2] - Soda ash: Cautiously bullish [2] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: There is a situation of strong reality and weak expectation. Pay attention to OPEC's production increase and changes in US production capacity. As OPEC+ gradually expands production, the pressure of oversupply in oil prices will gradually rise, and there is a large downward pressure on oil prices [1][4]. - LPG: The cost - end oil price is weak, downstream demand is fair, the basis is at a high level, and the downward support is gradually increasing [1]. - L: The proportion of coal - based plastics is 20%. It is less affected by anti - involution. Spot replenishment willingness is insufficient, and social inventory continues to accumulate. It mainly rebounds following market sentiment in the short term [1]. - PP: Demand follow - up is insufficient, and commercial total inventory accumulates. It rebounds following market sentiment. The export is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the future, but the production pressure in the third quarter is relatively high, which limits the upside space [1]. - PVC: The anti - involution trading continues. Short - term sentiment and cost support the bottom. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the supply - demand pattern in July tends to accumulate inventory [1]. - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. PX inventory is decreasing but still at a relatively high level. PXN is not low, and there are recent macro - positive factors under the anti - involution policy [1]. - PTA/PR: There are relatively few changes in the device recently. The pressure on the supply side is expected to increase with the commissioning of new devices. The demand side is weakly bottoming out. It is affected by the anti - involution policy [1]. - Ethylene glycol: There are not many changes in domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices. Arrival and imports are lower than the same period. Demand is in the traditional off - season, and orders need further improvement. The basis is strong, and low inventory supports the price [1]. - Glass: The fundamentals have improved. The production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, and the upstream inventory continues to decline. It is supported by anti - involution policies and coal - based production line technological transformation expectations [2]. - Soda ash: There are both device overhauls and restarts recently. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. It follows the improvement of commodity sentiment in the short term [2]. - Caustic soda: The supply is approaching saturation with the increase in production capacity utilization and the expectation of new production capacity. The demand from the main downstream alumina has recovered, but non - aluminum demand is still weak [2]. - Methanol: Domestic methanol device overhauls have led to a decline in the comprehensive operating load, but overseas devices have recovered. Demand is relatively good, and social inventory is accumulating but at a relatively low level [2]. - Urea: The resumption of overhauled devices is expected to increase daily production. Industrial demand is improving, and fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. There are short - term macro - positive policies [2]. - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is oscillating weakly, and the raw material supply is sufficient. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. The valuation is relatively high [2]. - Propylene: The spot market is weak. The futures are expected to be in a short - term sideways shock. Considering the anti - involution trading, it is cautiously bullish on the long side [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline. WTI decreased by 0.09%, Brent decreased by 1.11%, and SC decreased by 0.53% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil market shows a situation of weak expectation and strong reality. It is in the consumption peak season with some support below, but the pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually released. The EU has introduced new sanctions on Russian oil, and Norway's oil production has decreased. China's oil imports have increased, and IEA's forecast for global oil demand growth has decreased. US commercial crude inventory has decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories have increased [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, due to tariff wars, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+'s production expansion, oil supply will be in surplus, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short term, the oil price is oscillating weakly. The strategy is to lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [495 - 510] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 23, the PG main contract closed at 3972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% compared to the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4630, 4443, and 4590 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Basic Logic**: With the increase in OPEC+ production, the cost - end oil price is under pressure. The fundamentals of LPG are mixed. The basis is at a high level, and there is some support below. The PDH device profit has increased, and the supply has decreased slightly while the demand has shown different trends. Inventory in refineries and ports has increased [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, the upstream crude oil supply is in excess, and the LPG price still has room for compression. In the short term, the downward support is increasing, and it is expected to rebound. The strategy is to stop the loss of previous short positions. PG focuses on [3950 - 4050] [8]. L - **Market Review**: The prices of L contracts have decreased, and the main contract's trading volume has decreased. The spot price in North China has increased slightly, and the basis has strengthened [10]. - **Basic Logic**: The proportion of coal - based plastics is 20%. It is less affected by anti - involution. Spot replenishment willingness is insufficient, and social inventory continues to accumulate. The device restart is increasing, and the production is expected to increase this week. The anti - involution impact is limited, and the follow - up raw material replenishment demand after the off - season of agricultural films needs attention [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upward driving force on the fundamentals is insufficient. Part of the long positions can be stopped for profit. L focuses on [7250 - 7450] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts have increased, and the main contract's trading volume has decreased. The spot price in East China has increased slightly, and the basis has weakened [13]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand follow - up is insufficient, and commercial total inventory accumulates. It rebounds following market sentiment. The domestic demand is in the off - season, and the planned unplanned overhauls of existing devices have increased, reducing the supply pressure. The export from January to June has increased by 21% year - on - year, and the export profit is positive. The production pressure in the third quarter is relatively high, which limits the upside space [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Part of the long positions can be stopped for profit. PP focuses on [7100 - 7250] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The prices of PVC contracts have decreased, and the main contract's trading volume has decreased slightly. The spot price in Changzhou has decreased slightly, and the basis has strengthened [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The anti - involution trading continues. Short - term sentiment and cost support the bottom. The August Formosa Plastics quotation has decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the export in June has significantly decreased. The social inventory has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, and new devices are being commissioned. The supply - demand pattern in July tends to accumulate inventory. Pay attention to the progress of India's anti - dumping tax [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Part of the long positions can be stopped for profit. V focuses on [5100 - 5400] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: The prices of PX contracts have increased. The spot price in East China has remained unchanged, and the basis has weakened [19]. - **Basic Logic**: There are not many changes in domestic and foreign devices. The processing difference is positive, and the production is stable. The demand from the downstream PTA has some changes. The supply and demand are in a tight - balance state, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a relatively high level. Under the anti - involution policy, there are recent macro - positive factors [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: PX focuses on [6840, 6950] [21]. PTA/PR - **Market Review**: The prices of PTA contracts have increased. The spot price in East China has increased, and the basis has strengthened [22]. - **Basic Logic**: There are relatively few changes in the device recently. The pressure on the supply side is expected to increase with the commissioning of new devices. The demand side is weakly bottoming out. The downstream polyester and terminal weaving are slightly differentiated. It is affected by the anti - involution policy, and the supply side has some positive support. Pay attention to the oil price [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA focuses on [4750, 4820] [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The prices of ethylene glycol contracts have increased. The spot price in East China has decreased slightly, and the basis has weakened [25]. - **Basic Logic**: There are not many changes in domestic and foreign ethylene glycol devices. Arrival and imports are lower than the same period. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and orders need further improvement. The basis is strong, and low inventory supports the price. There are recent anti - involution macro - positive factors. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: EG focuses on [4430, 4500] [27]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market prices have generally increased, the futures price has corrected, the basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The market is affected by the anti - involution policy expectation. The fundamentals of glass have improved, with increased production and decreased inventory. The cost is expected to increase due to the strength of coal - related products. The short - term price is boosted by macro - policies, and the inventory reduction enhances market confidence [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [1200, 1260] [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot prices of heavy soda ash are differentiated, the futures price has corrected, the basis has narrowed, and the number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts has increased [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Affected by the anti - involution policy expectation, the glass and coal markets are stronger, which boosts the industry sentiment. The alkali plant inventory has accumulated again, reaching a new historical high. There are both device overhauls and restarts, and the supply is increasing. The downstream support is general [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is not clearly stated in the given text, but it is in the context of being cautiously bullish following the market sentiment. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of flake caustic soda has increased, the futures price has corrected, the basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0 [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is approaching saturation with the increase in production capacity utilization and the expectation of new production capacity. The demand from the main downstream alumina has recovered, but non - aluminum demand is still weak. The export scale has decreased in May [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is not clearly stated in the given text, but it is related to the cautious bullish view. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 18, the spot price of methanol in East China decreased, and the main contract price decreased. The basis in East China and ports has strengthened, and the month - spread has decreased [36]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic methanol device overhauls have led to a decline in the comprehensive operating load, but overseas devices have recovered. The demand is relatively good, and the social inventory is accumulating but at a relatively low level. The coking coal has been oscillating strongly recently, and methanol is oscillating strongly in the range [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The strategy is to try to go long on dips. MA focuses on [2410 - 2490] [2]. Urea - **Market Review**: It is not clearly presented in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The overhauled urea devices are resuming production, and the daily output is expected to return to 200,000 tons. Industrial demand is improving, and agricultural fertilizer demand is weakening month - on - month, but fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. The coal price is stable, and the cost support remains. The factory inventory is decreasing, and exports are progressing smoothly [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly try to go long. UR focuses on [1760 - 1810] [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: It is not clearly presented in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is oscillating weakly, and the raw material supply is sufficient. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating. The current cracking spread is at a high level, and the valuation is relatively high [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly try to go short. BU focuses on [3530 - 3630] [2]. Propylene - **Market Review**: The spot price in Shandong has decreased, and the futures volatility has decreased after the listing day. It is expected to be in a short - term sideways shock [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot market is weak. Considering the anti - involution trading, the market sentiment is optimistic, and it is cautiously bullish on the long side. For arbitrage, pay attention to shorting the 1 - 2 month - spread or shorting the PP processing fee [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Propylene focuses on [6500 - 6700] [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - With the tax - period impact mostly over, the inter - bank market funds are in an abundant state. The A - share market has strong liquidity and market sentiment, and the stock index is expected to run strongly. It is recommended to adjust and go long as the main strategy [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data of Macro - Finance - DR001 closed at 1.31 with a change of - 4.66bp; DR007 at 1.47 with - 1.61bp; GC001 at 1.36 with 4.00bp; GC007 at 1.47 with - 1.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.55 with - 0.20bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with 0.00bp; 1 - year treasury at 1.35 with 0.25bp; 5 - year treasury at 1.53 with 1.25bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.69 with 1.20bp; 10 - year US treasury at 4.44 with - 3.00bp [3] - The central bank conducted 214.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. There were 342.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits due on the same day [3] - This week, there will be 1.7268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases due in the central bank's open market. From Monday to Friday, 226.2 billion yuan, 342.5 billion yuan, 520.1 billion yuan, 450.5 billion yuan, and 187.5 billion yuan will mature respectively. Additionally, 200 billion yuan of MLF will mature on July 25, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits matured on July 22 [4] Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Conditions - The CSI 300 rose 0.82% to 4119; the SSE 50 rose 0.72% to 2792; the CSI 500 rose 0.85% to 6213; the CSI 1000 rose 0.38% to 6637. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.893 trillion yuan, an increase of 193.1 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - Industry sectors mostly rose. The engineering machinery, coal, cement building materials, steel, engineering consulting services, engineering construction, energy metals, and precious metals sectors led the gains, while the packaging materials, gaming, and banking sectors led the losses [5] - The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed. For example, IF trading volume increased by 31.4% to 117,403, and its open interest increased by 6.5% to 267,547 [5] Stock Index Futures Basis Conditions - IF basis for the current - month contract is 0.06%, next - month 0.00%, current - quarter 0.01%, and next - quarter 2.62%; IH basis is - 1.43%, - 1.02%, - 0.56%, - 0.36% respectively; IC basis is 7.39%, 8.36%, 8.31%, 7.93% respectively; IM basis is 10.79%, 11.34%, 11.22%, 10.59% respectively [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][3][4] - LPG: Cautiously bullish [1][6][7] - L: Cautiously bullish [1][9][11] - PP: Cautiously bullish [1][13][14] - PVC: Cautiously bullish [1][16][17] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1][19][20] - PTA/PR: Cautiously bullish [1][22][23] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bullish [1][25][26] - Glass: Cautiously bullish [2][28][30] - Soda ash: Bullish [2][31][32] - Caustic soda: Cautiously bullish [2][33][34] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2][36] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Bearish [2] - Propylene: Cautiously bullish [2] Core Views - Crude oil: The peak - season market is in the second half, and oil prices are oscillating weakly. OPEC+ is gradually increasing production, leading to rising supply - surplus pressure and significant downward pressure on oil prices [1][3][4] - LPG: The cost side is weak, but the high basis provides support for LPG prices [1][6][7] - L: Plastic has a 20% coal - to - plastic ratio, is less affected by anti - involution, and rebounds following market sentiment in the short term [1][9][11] - PP: With a 19% coal - to - plastic ratio, it rebounds following market sentiment, and export is expected to maintain high - speed growth [1][13][14] - PVC: Capacity reduction boosts sentiment and cost, providing short - term support, but the weak fundamentals limit the rebound space [1][16][17] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and there are macro - policy bullish factors [1][19][20] - PTA/PR: There may be increased supply pressure in the future, but short - term macro - policies bring bullish factors [1][22][23] - Ethylene glycol: The fundamentals are slightly loose, but macro - policies provide bullish support [1][25][26] - Glass: The market is boosted by policy expectations, and the price center moves up [2][28][30] - Soda ash: Affected by policy expectations, the price rises, but the high - supply and high - inventory situation persists [2][31][32] - Caustic soda: Supply is approaching saturation, but demand is improving, and the price is supported by the market sentiment [2][33][34] - Methanol: Supply - demand conditions are improving, and it is oscillating strongly under the influence of macro - policies [2][36] - Urea: Supply is increasing, but demand and macro - policies provide support [2] - Asphalt: Cost - side oil prices are under long - term pressure, and the market is bearish [2] - Propylene: The low absolute price provides support, and the market sentiment is improving [2] Summary by Variety Crude oil - **Market review**: Overnight international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 0.97%, Brent dropped 0.72%, and SC dropped 1.69% [3] - **Basic logic**: The oil market is in a situation of weak expectation and strong reality. OPEC's production increase is gradually releasing pressure, and the oil - price center may decline. EU sanctions on Russia and changes in Norwegian production affect supply. Chinese imports and IEA forecasts impact demand. EIA data shows inventory changes [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is in surplus, and the price range is expected to be 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, the trend is oscillating weakly. Recommend light - position shorting and buying call options. SC focuses on [495 - 510] [5] LPG - **Market review**: On July 22, the PG main contract closed at 3981 yuan/ton, down 0.99% [6] - **Basic logic**: As OPEC+ increases production, the cost side is weak. LPG's fundamentals are mixed, with a high basis providing support. PDH and other indicators show changes in supply and demand, and inventory is increasing [7] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude - oil supply is in surplus, and LPG is over - valued. In the short - term, there is support below. Recommend closing previous short positions. PG focuses on [3950 - 4050] [8] L - **Market review**: Short - term prices are affected by cost, supply, and demand. The cost support is weakening, supply pressure is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [9][10] - **Basic logic**: Plastic has a 20% coal - to - plastic ratio, is less affected by anti - involution. The standard - product import window is closed. It rebounds following market sentiment, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [11] - **Strategy recommendation**: Recommend short - term dip - buying. L focuses on [7250 - 7450] [11][12] PP - **Market review**: The market is affected by maintenance, demand, and cost. Currently, the market is weak, and attention should be paid to cost and supply [13] - **Basic logic**: With a 19% coal - to - plastic ratio, it rebounds following market sentiment. Inventory is being depleted, supply pressure is relieved, and exports are expected to grow [14] - **Strategy recommendation**: Recommend short - term dip - buying. PP focuses on [7100 - 7250] [14][15] PVC - **Market review**: The market is driven by policies, with weak fundamentals but a strong - oscillating price due to policy expectations [16] - **Basic logic**: Capacity reduction supports the price, but the weak fundamentals limit the rebound. Inventory is increasing, and attention should be paid to Indian anti - dumping duties and warehouse - receipt registration [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: Recommend short - term dip - buying. V focuses on [5100 - 5400] [17][18] PX - **Market review**: On July 18, the spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6810 yuan/ton [19] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, and demand is stable. Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and inventory is high but decreasing. PXN is not low, and there are macro - policy bullish factors [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: PX focuses on [6820, 6940] [21] PTA - **Market review**: On July 18, the East - China spot price was 4782 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4733 yuan/ton [22] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, and new device production may increase pressure. Demand is weak, but macro - policies bring bullish factors. TA's fundamentals are expected to be looser, but there are short - term bullish opportunities [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: TA focuses on [4760, 4850] [24] Ethylene glycol - **Market review**: On July 18, the East - China spot price was 4429 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4376 yuan/ton [25] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and overseas device changes are small, and imports are low. Demand is in the off - season but shows signs of stopping decline. The basis is strong, and low inventory provides support. There are macro - policy bullish factors [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: EG focuses on [4420, 4480] [27] Glass - **Market review**: Spot - market quotes increased, and the futures price rose significantly, with an enlarged premium [29] - **Basic logic**: Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the market sentiment is strong. Coal prices drive up cost expectations. Glass fundamentals improve, with increased production and decreased inventory, boosting market confidence [30] - **Strategy recommendation**: FG focuses on [1220, 1260] [30] Soda ash - **Market review**: The heavy - alkali spot price increased, and the futures price rose significantly, with a narrowing basis and increasing warehouse receipts [31] - **Basic logic**: Affected by policy expectations, the glass and coal markets are strong, boosting the soda - ash futures price. However, alkali - factory inventory is at a record high, and supply is increasing [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: No specific strategy other than the price range [31][32] Caustic soda - **Market review**: The liquid - caustic soda spot price decreased, and the futures price rose, with a weakening basis [33] - **Basic logic**: Supply is approaching saturation, with high - level production and new - capacity expectations. Demand from alumina is improving, but non - aluminum demand is weak [34] - **Strategy recommendation**: No specific strategy other than the price range [33][34] Methanol - **Market review**: On July 18, the East - China spot price was 2385 yuan/ton, and the MA09 contract closed at 2365 yuan/ton [36] - **Basic logic**: Domestic device maintenance reduces supply, while overseas devices recover. Demand is good, and inventory is increasing but still low. Affected by macro - policies, it oscillates strongly [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Recommend dip - buying. MA focuses on [2410 - 2460] [2] Urea - **Basic logic**: Supply is increasing as maintenance devices resume production. Demand from industry is improving, and exports are growing. Coal prices are stable, providing cost support [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Recommend light - position buying. UR focuses on [1790 - 1820] [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: Cost - side oil prices are under long - term pressure, and supply is sufficient. Supply and demand are both increasing, and inventory is accumulating. The cracking spread is high, and the valuation is high [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Recommend light - position shorting. BU focuses on [3580 - 3680] [2] Propylene - **Basic logic**: The absolute price is low, providing support. The market sentiment is improving [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: Unilateral trading is cautiously bullish. For arbitrage, consider shorting the 1 - 2 month spread or shorting the PP processing fee. Propylene focuses on [6500 - 6700] [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. Pay attention to domestic anti-involution policies and overseas equivalent tariff policy expectations, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 81,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - For alumina, short-term prices are expected to remain strong above 3,100 yuan/ton, but beware of policy changes in Guinea and the risk of a short squeeze due to the reduction of warehouse receipts. Mid-term, it is recommended to go short on rallies. For aluminum, short-term prices are expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [4] Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 19,400 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Focus on the supply of upstream scrap aluminum and changes in imports. [6] Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton. Long-term supply is expected to be loose, but terminal consumption still has some resilience in the short term. [9] Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to changes in macro expectations. [12] Tin - With the gradual resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, there is an expectation of supply-side repair. However, due to the current positive market sentiment, short positions should be avoided for now. After the sentiment stabilizes, consider shorting on rallies. [14] Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to policy trends and the asset conditions of steel mills. [18] Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong within a range, with the main contract reference range of 68,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton. However, the mid-term upward risk is higher than the downward risk, and pay attention to upstream actions. [21] Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.14% to 79,555 yuan/ton. The spread between refined and scrap copper widened by 53.15% to 1,479 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% to 1.1349 million tons, while imports increased by 18.74% to 300,500 tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.92% to 20,890 yuan/ton. The import loss of aluminum was 1,427 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Data - In June, alumina production decreased by 0.19% to 7.2581 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.22% to 3.609 million tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy prices in different regions increased by 0.50% - 0.99%. [5] Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.49% to 615,000 tons, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.30% to 255,000 tons. [6] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 2.24% to 22,820 yuan/ton. The import loss of zinc was 1,706 yuan/ton. [9] Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% to 585,100 tons, and imports increased by 34.97% to 36,100 tons. [9] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.11% to 122,850 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread was -206 dollars/ton. [12] Fundamental Data - In June, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. [12] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.64% to 267,200 yuan/ton. The import loss of tin was 16,228.79 yuan/ton. [14] Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons. [14] Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B stainless steel coil prices in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 0.78% - 1.18%. 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price increased by 0.17% to 902 yuan/nickel point. [18] Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 mills) decreased by 3.83% to 1.7133 million tons. [18] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.03% to 68,000 yuan/ton. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate widened by 3.13% to 1,650 yuan/ton. [21] Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% to 78,090 tons, and the demand decreased by 0.15% to 93,878 tons. [21]