Economic Indicators - The China Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) for August is 47.8, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a marginal improvement in economic sentiment[4] - The production price index (PPI) is expected to decline by approximately 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year in August, reflecting weak overall factory prices despite a significant year-on-year improvement due to lower technical levels last year[6] Financial Data - From January to July, the real sector received approximately 19 trillion yuan in funding, an increase of 2.7 trillion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by fiscal fund disbursements[10] - New deposits from residents amounted to 9.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 720 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits[10] Market Trends - In the wake of new housing policies in Beijing, the year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales has narrowed, with second-hand housing sales showing a positive year-on-year growth[17] - Several small and medium-sized banks have lowered deposit rates, with rates for various terms adjusted down by 10 to 20 basis points[14] Risks - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments pose risks of export volatility and declining corporate profits[3] - Changes in global geopolitical situations and international market fluctuations may continue to impact commodity prices and related industries[3]

黑色壹周谈 反内卷交易尘埃落地？ 淡旺季交接何去何从？ 20250821 摘要 黑色产业链反内卷溢价已基本出清，多晶硅、碳酸锂等前期强势商品亦 步入预期调整期，需关注四季度钢材需求能否提振供需，若需求不及预 期，或将面临震荡下行风险。 铁矿石近期表现出较强抗跌性，但需深入分析其背后逻辑，若钢材预期 不佳，铁水高位能否维持存疑。煤炭方面，产量核查及阅兵后产量恢复 情况，以及海运煤和蒙煤进口量快速回升，均需密切关注。 焦煤市场核心驱动力在于政策调控，若不实施限产，产量或将继续回升， 叠加海运煤和蒙煤增量，可能导致供需过剩。目前焦煤中下游库存较高， 持货意愿变化值得关注，政策态度或对价格形成一定指导。 动力煤日耗逐步见顶，进口量持续改善，国内供应逐步恢复至高位，总 库存开始累积，价格后续可能偏弱。需关注动力煤对焦炭的影响，以及 新疆超产问题。 钢材库存基数低，旺季需求尚未验证，正处于逐步累库阶段。价格下跌 时，下游补库意愿增强，出口好转；价格上涨则面临下游抵抗及出口减 弱。需关注 9 月份库存累积情况，以判断负反馈是否出现。 Q&A 最近一两周商品市场和股市的表现如何？黑色产业链的情况如何？ 最近一两周，商品市场和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The alloy market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. However, the recent rapid increase in supply and limited further growth in demand suggest potential weakening in the supply - demand balance. Iron alloys can be considered as short - side allocation in the industrial chain [5]. - As the "anti - involution" trading calms down, commodity performance is expected to diverge. Products with actual production cuts and policy support will likely remain strong, while others will be driven more by their own fundamentals [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Supply**: The production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese continued to rise this week, and the operating rates in recent weeks have shown an accelerating upward trend [5]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills slightly increased, but the apparent demand for steel, especially for rebar, decreased more than seasonally. Combined with the poor macro data in July, there is a risk of a decline in the demand side [5]. - **Cost**: The electricity price remained stable this week, and the price of port manganese ore increased slightly [5]. - **Market sentiment**: "Anti - involution" leading varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal are oscillating at high levels. As the "anti - involution" trading calms down, commodity performance will diverge. Iron alloys' supply - demand is currently stable but may face pressure from the accelerating supply increase [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Due to the recent accelerating increase in supply, iron alloys can be used as short - side allocation in the industrial chain [6]. - **Arbitrage**: When the basis is low, cash - and - carry arbitrage can be considered [6]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 2.03 tons (accounting for about 70% of the total demand), unchanged from the previous week. The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 12.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons [11]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%. The national ferrosilicon production (weekly supply) was 11.28 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%. The national silicomanganese production (99% of weekly supply) was 20.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12 tons [12]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national capacity) was 15.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons [13]. Cost and Profit - **Silicomanganese**: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5899 yuan/ton with a profit of - 99 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 53.8%. In Ningxia, the production cost was 5938 yuan/ton with a profit of - 38 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 21.1%. In Guangxi, the production cost was 6432 yuan/ton with a profit of - 532 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 3.1%. In Guizhou, the production cost was 6178 yuan/ton with a profit of - 308 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 3.2% [30]. - **Ferrosilicon**: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5499 yuan/ton with a profit of - 49 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 29.1%. In Ningxia, the production cost was 5352 yuan/ton with a profit of 148 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 27.1%. In Shaanxi, the production cost was 5564 yuan/ton with a profit of - 114 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 18.1%. In Qinghai, the production cost was 5421 yuan/ton with a profit of 79 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 15.3%. In Gansu, the production cost was 5573 yuan/ton with a profit of - 73 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 9.5% [41]. Other Data - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export**: Data on the monthly net import of manganese ore and the monthly net export of ferrosilicon are presented, showing trends over different time periods [69]. - **Metal Magnesium Demand**: Information on the price of magnesium in Fugu and the cumulative production of magnesium in Yulin, Shaanxi is provided [71]. - **Silicon - Iron Inventory**: Data on the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants and the available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills are given, including regional breakdowns [75]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: Information on the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the total inventory of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy plants is presented [78].

铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/13 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润 ...

卷螺维持震荡，节奏受双焦引领 曹有明 从业资格号：F3038998 交易咨询号：Z0013162 2025年8月12日 ——山金期货螺纹热卷专题报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 目录 一 ．主要观点 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 数据来源：iFinD、山金期货投资咨询部 二．螺纹热卷期现货市场回顾 三．钢材的供需分析 四．行情展望与投资机会研判 主要观点 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 数据来源：iFinD、山金期货投资咨询部 现货价格走势略有分化 | | 现货价格(元/吨) | | 最新 | 上周 | 上月 | 去年同期 | 周环比 | 月环比 | 年同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢(HRB400E 20mm,上海) | | 3340 | 3360 | 3160 | 3200 | -20 | +180 | +140 | | 螺纹钢 | (HRB400E 20mm, 广州) | | 3380 | 3420 | 3240 | 3410 | -40 | +140 | -30 | | | 螺纹钢(HRB400E 20m ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/11 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指期货方面，权益市场延续上行态势，沪指上涨接近1%，其中涨停 家数68家，个股偏向普涨性质。行业方面，金融股集体异动，银行、保险 领涨，或显示有大资金入市迹象，风险偏好维持偏积极态势。针对8月后 续行情，目前态度偏积极，其中有几个逻辑，其一，阅兵之前，风险偏好 预计易上难下，给予情绪上的支撑，其二，尽管中报预喜比例不高，但中 枢与2022年至2024年一致，结合弱现实充分计价，此次财报季对于市场冲 击偏弱，其三，全球视角美元持续反弹的概率不高，若回调则利于港股、 A股资产的配置。在风险并不显著的背景下，可续持IM多单。 股指期权方面，昨日标的市场全线上涨，各品种日内持续拉升。期权 市场成交额47.20亿元，相较前一日下降8.06%，流动性延续回落态势， 但大盘成交量边际提升。情绪指标方面，多数品种持仓量PCR延续上行， 偏度整体回落为主，表明市场短暂整理后重新开始交易上行预期，并且从 比值PCR下行来看，贡献端或在卖认沽一侧，日内中长期资金调仓占主 导，短期博弈暂歇。波动率方面，50ETF、300ETF、MO等品种低位震荡， 沪市500ETF略有上升，结合行情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside, and a short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given [2]. - Methanol is currently over - valued, with supply pressure increasing and demand weakening, and its price faces pressure [4]. - Urea is in a pattern of low valuation and weak supply - demand. The current price is not high, and the continued decline space is limited. It is advisable to pay attention to long - allocation opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, after a significant decline, the price rebounded. A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - For styrene, the short - term BZN spread is expected to repair, and after the high - level port inventory is reduced, the price may follow the cost to fluctuate upward [14]. - Polyethylene price will be determined by the game between cost and supply in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions [17]. - Polypropylene price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July, with cost leading the market [18]. - PX is expected to continue de - stocking, and short - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil can be focused on [21]. - PTA is expected to continue accumulating inventory, and attention can be paid to long - position opportunities on dips following PX [22]. - Ethylene glycol's fundamental situation will change from strong to weak, and its short - term valuation has downward pressure [23]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $1.07, or 1.62%, to $65.17; Brent main crude oil futures fell $1.00, or 1.46%, to $67.68; INE main crude oil futures fell 5.50 yuan, or 1.07%, to 508.8 yuan [1]. - **Inventory Data**: In Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory increased by 0.43 million barrels to 7.30 million barrels, a 6.32% increase; diesel inventory decreased by 0.55 million barrels to 1.89 million barrels, a 22.58% decrease; fuel oil inventory increased by 0.98 million barrels to 9.70 million barrels, an 11.24% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.86 million barrels to 18.90 million barrels, a 4.78% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 7 yuan/ton to 2397 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 2 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 27 [4]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side corporate profits are still high, and the start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, increasing supply pressure. Demand - side port olefins are shut down, and it is the traditional demand off - season, so the overall demand is weak. Port inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the basis and inter - month spreads are continuously declining [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On August 5, the 09 contract rose 39 yuan/ton to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 12 [6]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. Corporate profits are poor, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually increase. Demand - side export docking is less than expected, domestic agricultural demand is entering the off - season, and compound fertilizer production for autumn fertilizers has started, with enterprises actively building inventories and finished product inventories further increasing [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Industrial products rose collectively. NR and RU rebounded significantly after a decline [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Tire factory start - up rates decreased month - on - month. As of July 30, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up load of Shandong tire enterprises was 61.06%, down 3.94 percentage points from the previous week but up 4.63 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up load was 74.63%, down 0.87 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.23 percentage points from the same period last year. As of July 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.3 tons, a 0.4% increase month - on - month [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: A neutral - to - bullish short - term trading strategy is recommended, and a long - RU2601 and short - RU2509 band operation can be considered [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 61 yuan to 5042 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4890 (+30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 152 (- 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 135 (+2) yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overall start - up rate of PVC was 76.8%, up 0.05% month - on - month. The demand - side overall downstream start - up rate was 42.1%, up 0.2% month - on - month. Factory inventories were 34.5 tons (1.2), and social inventories were 72.2 tons (+3.9). The enterprise's comprehensive profit has risen to a high point this year, the maintenance volume is gradually decreasing, and the production is at a five - year high. The domestic downstream start - up rate is at a five - year low, and India's anti - dumping policy has been extended [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: Spot and futures prices both declined, and the basis weakened [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost - side support still exists, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period and has a large upward repair space. The cost - side pure benzene start - up rate has declined slightly, and the supply is still abundant. The supply - side ethylbenzene dehydrogenation profit has increased, and the styrene start - up rate has continued to rise. Styrene port inventories have continued to decline significantly, and the demand - side three - S overall start - up rate has fluctuated and increased during the seasonal off - season [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7323 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was - 83 yuan/ton, weakening 44 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The market expects favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance in the third quarter, and the cost - side support still exists. The trade - inventory is oscillating at a high level, and the demand - side agricultural film orders are oscillating at a low level. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - led decline to high - maintenance - driven inventory reduction. There is a large production capacity release pressure in August, with a planned production capacity release of 1.1 million tons [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices rose. The main contract closed at 7095 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton, the spot price was 7125 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 30 yuan/ton, weakening 21 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover. The demand - side downstream start - up rate has declined seasonally. There is only a planned production capacity release of 450,000 tons in August. In the context of weak supply and demand during the seasonal off - season, the cost will dominate the market, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly following crude oil in July [18]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 20 yuan to 6734 yuan, the PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 839 dollars, and the basis was 167 yuan (+25), with the 9 - 1 spread at 28 yuan (+2) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX load remains at a high level, and the short - term maintenance of downstream PTA has increased, with the overall load center declining, which suppresses the valuation rhythm. However, the current PTA inventory level is low, and the polyester and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season, so the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is still small. Recently, new PTA plants have been put into operation, and PX is expected to continue de - stocking [21]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 16 yuan to 4682 yuan, the East China spot price fell 30 yuan to 4660 yuan, the basis was - 19 yuan (- 4), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 40 yuan (- 6) [22]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply - side maintenance has increased in August, but new plants have been put into operation, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory pressure has decreased, and downstream and terminal start - up rates are about to end the off - season. The valuation is currently at a neutral level [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4399 yuan, the East China spot price rose 8 yuan to 4463 yuan, the basis was 79 yuan (+1), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 27 (+1) [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side ethylene glycol start - up rate was 68.6%, down 0.7% month - on - month. The downstream start - up rate was 88.1%, down 0.6% month - on - month. Import arrival forecasts are 138,000 tons, and port inventories decreased by 500 tons. The overseas device load is at a high level, and the arrival volume is expected to gradually increase, with inventories rising from a low level. The short - term valuation has downward pressure [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, credit bonds may be mostly volatile, with more opportunities than risks, and credit buying is relatively active. The "anti - involution" policy has returned to rationality, and the stock market may consolidate in August, which is conducive to the restoration of bond market sentiment. However, there are still volatile factors in the bond market in the future. The buying demand is expected to be relatively strong due to the upcoming reduction of insurance product preset interest rates and the new VAT regulations [27]. - After the previous adjustment, the spreads of general - purpose credit bonds still have room to narrow, and it is recommended to focus on general - purpose credit bonds with high - grade and good liquidity, as well as credit bond ETF component bonds. Second - tier and perpetual bonds should focus on the VAT exemption opportunities of old bonds [28][29]. 3. Summary by Directory Credit Hotspots: Review and Outlook of the Current Round of Credit Bond Adjustment - **Adjustment and Repair Process**: From July 18 - 29, credit bonds had an overall correction, with second - tier and perpetual bonds having the largest correction, followed by 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y general - purpose credit bonds. From July 29 - August 1, short - and medium - term second - tier and perpetual bonds repaired first, followed by high - grade 5Y and 10Y general - purpose credit bonds [1][13]. - **Institutional Behavior**: From July 21 - 29, funds sold a large amount of credit bonds, while wealth management and insurance increased their positions. Since the repair, institutional buying has been active, and the short - term redemption wave has basically subsided. Before the reduction of insurance product preset interest rates on August 31, the buying may continue [17]. - **Credit Bond ETF**: From July 18 - 29, the prices of credit bond ETFs declined, and the scale of benchmark - making credit bond ETFs decreased, while most of the science - innovation bond ETFs increased. During the repair period, credit bond ETFs recovered. The component bonds of credit bond ETFs had a larger decline during the adjustment and a smaller recovery than non - component bonds, but the difference was not significant [18]. Market Review: Cooling of "Anti - Involution" Trading, Comprehensive Repair of Credit Bonds - From July 25 to August 1, after the Politburo meeting, the "anti - involution" trading sentiment cooled, the impact of the equity market on the bond market weakened, and the bond market recovered. The yields of most credit bonds declined, with short - and medium - term yields down about 3BP, and medium - and long - term spreads up about 2BP passively. The yields of second - tier and perpetual bonds generally declined significantly, with 3 - 5Y varieties down more than 5BP, and spreads down about 2BP. Buying recovered, with wealth management net buying 199.1 billion yuan and funds net buying 94.62 billion yuan. The scale of credit bond ETFs was 3337 billion yuan, up 1.26% from the previous week. Industry spreads of most AAA - rated public bonds and provincial urban investment bonds declined, with Guizhou's spreads down more than 6BP [3]. Primary Issuance: Net Financing of Corporate Credit Bonds Soars, Average Issuance Interest Rates Fluctuate - From July 28 to August 1, corporate credit bonds issued a total of 217.4 billion yuan, a 33% decrease from the previous period; financial credit bonds issued a total of 31.4 billion yuan, an 86% decrease. Corporate credit bonds had a net financing of 51.6 billion yuan, a 84% increase, with urban investment bonds having a net repayment of 6.6 billion yuan and industrial bonds having a net financing of 48.2 billion yuan. Financial credit bonds had a net financing of 6.9 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rates of medium - and short - term notes fluctuated, and the average issuance interest rates of corporate bonds showed a downward trend except for AA - rated bonds [4][62]. Secondary Trading: Active Trading in Short - and Medium - Duration Bonds, Decline in Long - Duration Trading - Active trading entities are mainly high - grade, short - and medium - term, and central and state - owned enterprises. Urban investment bonds are mainly from strong economic provinces' high - grade platforms and high - spread areas in large economic provinces. Real - estate bonds and private - enterprise bonds are mainly AAA - rated, with short - and medium - term trading durations. There was no trading of urban investment bonds with a maturity of more than 5 years, a decline from the previous week [5][72].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon (SI): Oscillatory [10] - Polysilicon (PS): Oscillatory [12] - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Bearish [91] 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with short - term prices expected to oscillate due to factors such as factory resumption and demand changes in downstream industries [10]. - Polysilicon production increases due to the resumption of large - scale southwest production capacity, and downstream silicon wafer production schedules increase slightly. Short - term prices may oscillate, and future capacity clearance is expected to accelerate [12]. - The market sentiment for lithium carbonate has ebbed, and supply - side disturbances have been resolved. With limited demand growth and inventory transfer rather than consumption by end - users, short - term prices are expected to be weak [91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US dollar index is at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, up 1.04% weekly, and down 9.03% annually. Exchange rates, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel all show different price changes [7]. - **New Energy Metals**: Industrial silicon is at 8,500 yuan/ton, down 2.97% daily, 12.60% weekly, and 22.62% annually. Lithium carbonate is at 68,920 yuan/ton, up 0.94% daily, down 14.41% weekly, and down 10.61% annually [7]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 78,600 tons, up 4.59% week - on - week. Main production areas like Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia all show different degrees of production increases [10]. - **Demand**: In the polysilicon sector, weekly production is 27,700 tons, up 13.44% week - on - week, with inventory accumulation. In the organic silicon sector, DMC weekly production is 47,800 tons, up 4.82% week - on - week [10]. - **Inventory**: Explicit inventory is 696,600 tons, up 0.49% week - on - week, and industry inventory is 444,000 tons, up 0.25% week - on - week [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9,109 yuan, down 0.14% week - on - week, and the profit per ton is 96 yuan, down 221 yuan/ton week - on - week [10]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: National weekly production is 27,700 tons, up 13.44% week - on - week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Yunnan. 7 - month production is 106,300 tons, up 5.10% month - on - month, and 8 - month production schedule is 106,800 tons, up 5.74% month - on - month [12]. - **Demand**: Silicon wafer weekly production is 11.84GW, up 4.78% week - on - week, with inventory reduction [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 275,800 tons, up 0.15% week - on - week [12]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41,333 yuan, down 0.63% week - on - week, and the profit per ton is 3,417 yuan, up 379 yuan/ton week - on - week [12]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: National weekly production is 17,300 tons, down 7.31% week - on - week. Different production methods (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake) show different production trends [91]. - **Imports**: In June, lithium carbonate imports were 17,000 tons, down 16.31% month - on - month, and lithium concentrate imports were 427,600 tons, down 17.25% month - on - month [91]. - **Demand**: In the lithium iron phosphate system, material weekly production is 69,200 tons, down 0.87% week - on - week. In the ternary system, material weekly production is 16,100 tons, up 1.07% week - on - week [91]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 141,700 tons, down 1.01% week - on - week. Warehouse receipt inventory is 6,600 tons, down 43.32% week - on - week [91]. - **Cost and Profit**: For lithium extraction from purchased ores, the cash production cost of lithium mica is 76,215 yuan/ton, up 2.96% week - on - week, and the production profit is - 7,136 yuan/ton, down 1,088 yuan/ton week - on - week [91].