有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜领涨有色 核心观点 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 沪铜 昨夜铜价增仓上行，今日延续强势运行，持仓量持续上升，今日 收盘较昨日上涨近 4000 元/吨。元旦节后国内宏观氛围持续回暖，资 产普涨。而铜在产业供应收缩的背景下矿端扰动再起，形成了宏观 和产业利好共振。短期宏观和产业预期推动铜价持续上行，产业处 于弱现实阶段，全球电解铜库存持续上升。短期铜价大幅上涨，波 动加剧，请各位投资者注意风险。 沪铝 昨夜沪铝增仓上行，主力期价站上 2.4 万关口，今日维持 ...

风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 有色金属ETF(512400.SH)跟踪中证申万有色金属指数，从有色金属行业中选择规模较大和流动性较好的 50只股票组成样本股，综合反映有色金属行业公司股票的整体走势，权重股涵盖了贵金属、工业金属、 稀土、能源金属等多个细分板块，一键把握多细分领域上行机遇。 12月30日，沪深两市震荡上行，机器人、工业金属板块涨幅居前。截至13点55分，有色金属 ETF(512400.SH)涨1.76%，紫金矿业涨2.11%。 有色金属板块当前处于"宏观利好+政策提振+供给约束"多重驱动下，市场情绪乐观。分板块来看：贵 金属在美元走弱与地缘风险升级的共振下走强，金融与避险属性双支撑。白银因工业需求与金融属性叠 加，弹性更为显著。工业金属表现强势，核心逻辑在于宏观宽松预期与供给刚性。政策鼓励兼并重组将 提升龙头议价能力，强化板块逻辑。铜受远期供给紧缺预期驱动，铝则受益于低库存与政策利好，补涨 潜力值得关注。新能源金属与小金属呈分化格局，原料端短缺是关键变量。钴受海外供给扰动预期支 撑，锂价高位震荡，稀土短期受需求影响调整，长期则看政策主导 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华安期货投研 主要因素： 1，金联创消息，白宫已下令美军在未来至少两个月内几乎完全专注于对委内瑞拉石油的"封锁"。 2，金联创消息，华东纯苯主库区库存目前在26.4万吨左右，较上一周期增加1.5万吨，涨幅6.02%，主 要集中在江阴及常州地区。 3，金联创消息，国内纯苯综合开工率为 77.01%，环比上涨 0.35 个百分点。 行情展望： 纯苯：近期在原油反弹提振下，纯苯小幅上涨，场内业者情绪整体修复，不过由于纯苯基本面暂无有效 改善，近端库存压力持续压制价格高度，因此短期纯苯维持区间震荡为主。 苯乙烯：宏观利好提振商品普遍走强，在出口消息配合下，苯乙烯现货基差同时走强；山东市场重心上 扬，厂商高端报盘继续上移，区域套利窗口开启，场内买气活跃，成交大幅放量。天津渤化装置停车时 长未定，若持续检修将强化供应收紧预期，叠加出口订单推进可能支撑价格偏强运行，但原油和纯苯成 本端波动及下游需求恢复不确定性仍构成风险。 | L. 纯苯现货价格 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 图1. 华东市场价格 | | 图2. 外盘价格 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the macro - positive factors faded, and steel pricing reverted to fundamentals. Supply is affected by iron - water production cuts, but profit rebounds may slow down the cut - off speed. Demand is seasonally weak due to shrinking real - estate steel use and construction restrictions, and new export regulations suppress export expectations. The overall trend of steel is oscillating weakly [3]. - After macro - events, the trading logic of iron ore has returned to fundamentals. With restrained shipments from major mines, falling freight rates, low steel - mill inventories, and high coking - coal production and inventory, the downside of iron - ore prices is limited [21]. - For coking coal, supply changes are limited, but steel - mill profit pressure leads to iron - water production cuts. Coking enterprises control procurement, and mine inventory pressure is increasing, so short - term coal prices will be under pressure. For coke, production has declined slightly due to environmental protection. After two rounds of price cuts, if there is no policy intervention, coke supply - demand may deteriorate, and prices may continue to fall [31]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, but news from relevant departments has led to a price rebound. However, price increases may stimulate enterprises to hedge, suppressing prices [46]. - With the strengthening of new - capacity production expectations, the over - supply expectation of soda ash is intensifying. Glass cold - repair is accelerating, weakening the rigid - demand expectation. Although exports are high, high upper - and middle - stream inventories restrict prices [60]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines may be cold - repaired, affecting far - month pricing. Near - month contracts will follow the delivery logic, and currently, high intermediate inventories and off - season demand create pressure on spot prices [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts showed minor fluctuations compared to the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3095 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The month - spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil also changed slightly. The rebar 01 - 05 month - spread was 11 yuan/ton on December 17, up 2 yuan from the previous day [4]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices and Basis - On December 17, 2025, the summary prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed little change. The summary price of rebar in China was 3299 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day [9]. - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions was mostly negative or showed a downward trend. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was not available on December 17, while it was 190 yuan/ton the previous day [9]. 3.1.3 Other Ratios - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke remained stable on December 17, 2025, compared to the previous day. For example, the 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 [18]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Futures Prices and Basis - On December 17, 2025, the closing prices of iron - ore contracts increased slightly compared to the previous day. The 01 contract closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [22]. - The basis of iron - ore contracts decreased. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [22]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data - From November 14 to December 12, 2025, the average daily iron - water production decreased by 7.68 tons, the 45 - port shipping volume decreased by 7.76 tons, and the global shipment volume increased by 76.1 tons [25]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke 3.3.1 Futures Spreads and Ratios - On December 17, 2025, the month - spreads of coking coal and coke contracts changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 162.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan from the previous day [34]. - The coking profit on the disk was 21 yuan/ton, up 17.353 yuan from the previous day [34]. 3.3.2 Spot Prices and Profits - On December 17, 2025, the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions mostly remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [37]. - The immediate coking profit was 21 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [37]. 3.4 Ferroalloys 3.4.1 Silicon Iron - On December 17, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 76 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan from the previous day. The silicon - iron 01 - 05 month - spread was - 62 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [47]. - The silicon - iron spot prices in different regions showed minor changes. The silicon - iron spot price in Ningxia was 5220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous day [47]. 3.4.2 Silicon Manganese - On December 17, 2025, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 132 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan from the previous day. The silicon - manganese 01 - 05 month - spread was - 60 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [48]. - The silicon - manganese spot prices in different regions were mostly stable or increased slightly. The silicon - manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [48]. 3.5 Soda Ash 3.5.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the soda - ash 05 contract was 1170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - spread (9 - 1) was 94 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from the previous day [61]. - The basis of soda ash in different regions decreased. The Shahe heavy - alkali basis was - 27 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan from the previous day [61]. 3.5.2 Spot Prices - On December 17, 2025, the spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were mostly stable. The heavy - alkali market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [61]. 3.6 Glass 3.6.1 Futures Prices and Spreads - On December 17, 2025, the glass 05 contract was 1038 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The month - spread (9 - 1) was 176 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [84]. - The basis of the glass 01 contract in different regions increased. The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 68 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day [84]. 3.6.2 Sales and Production - From December 5 - 12, 2025, the glass sales - to - production ratios in different regions fluctuated. The Shahe sales - to - production ratio on December 12 was 59% [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - After the Central Economic Work Conference, the macro - positive factors faded, and pricing returned to fundamentals. Steel supply is reducing, but the recovery of steel mill profits may slow down the reduction speed. Demand is seasonally weak, and steel exports are expected to tighten. Steel inventories show different trends, with short - term prices fluctuating weakly [3]. - After macro events, trading logic returned to fundamentals. Iron ore supply from major mines is restricted, and steel mills have a need to replenish inventory. Iron ore demand is seasonally declining but is expected to rebound in January. Falling coking coal prices provide support, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - Coking coal supply has limited marginal changes, but due to pressure on steel mill profits and unexpected reduction in hot metal production, coking coal supply exceeds demand. Coke production decreased slightly last week due to environmental restrictions. With the decline in coking coal costs, coke prices are likely to continue to fall [31]. - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak, but news from the SASAC and the National Development and Reform Commission led to a price rebound today. However, price increases may stimulate enterprises to hedge and suppress prices [47]. - With the strengthening of new production capacity expectations, the expectation of soda ash oversupply is intensifying. The acceleration of glass cold - repair weakens the demand for soda ash. Although exports are high, high inventories restrict prices [65]. - From December to before the Spring Festival, some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold - repair, which may affect long - term pricing. Near - term contracts will follow the delivery logic, and currently, high intermediate inventories and weak end - market demand put pressure on spot prices [88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3090, 3081, and 3112 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3254, 3246, and 3255 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The rebar spot prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were 3295, 3280, 3120, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the hot - rolled coil spot prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and Shenyang were 3270, 3260, and 3180 yuan/ton respectively [9][11]. Ratio and Spread Data - The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 [18]. - The 01, 05, and 10 roll - to - rebar spreads were 164, 165, and 143 yuan/ton respectively, and the roll - to - rebar spot spreads in Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenyang were - 10, 210, and 0 yuan/ton respectively [15]. Iron Ore Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 783.5, 761, and 739.5 yuan/ton respectively. The 01, 05, and 09 basis were 1, 25, and 46.5 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - The prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 779, 856, and 666 yuan/ton respectively [22]. Fundamental Data - The daily average hot metal production was 229.2 tons, 45 - port throughput was 319.19 tons, and the apparent demand for five major steel products was 840 tons [25]. - Global shipments were 3592.5 tons, Australia - Brazil shipments were 2889.3 tons, and 45 - port arrivals were 2723.4 tons [25]. - The 45 - port inventory was 15431.42 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills was 8834.2 tons [25]. Coal and Coke Price Data - The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 170.5, - 76.5, and - 94 yuan/ton respectively, and those of coke were 234, - 78.5, and - 155.5 yuan/ton respectively [35]. - The spot price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [38]. Ratio and Profit Data - The main mine - to - coke ratio was 0.503, the main rebar - to - coke ratio was 2.034, and the main coke - to - coal ratio was 1.524 [35]. - The on - the - spot coking profit was 21 yuan/ton, and the Mongolian coal import profit (long - term agreement) was 213 yuan/ton [38]. Ferroalloys Price Data - The silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 18 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 154 yuan/ton [48][49]. - The spot prices of silicon - iron in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai were 5250, 5280, and 5200 yuan/ton respectively, and the spot prices of silicon - manganese in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou were 5490, 5540, and 5550 yuan/ton respectively [48][49]. Cost and Inventory Data - The price of semi - coke small materials was 800 yuan/ton, and the price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 737 yuan/ton [48]. - The silicon - iron warehouse receipts were 13068, and the silicon - manganese warehouse receipts were 25032 [48][50]. Soda Ash Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1170, 1221, and 1133 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 51, 88, and - 37 yuan/ton respectively [66]. - The heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and East China were 1300, 1400, and 1250 yuan/ton respectively [66]. Fundamental Data - In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, maintaining a high level [65]. - The upper - and middle - stream inventories were generally high, restricting soda ash prices [65]. Glass Price Data - On December 16, 2025, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1038, 1117, and 946 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads were - 79, 171, and - 92 yuan/ton respectively [89]. - The 01 - contract basis in Shahe and Hubei was 64 and 140 yuan/ton respectively [89]. Sales and Production Data - On December 12, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 59, 90, 89, and 102 respectively [90].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 10 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 偏空情绪主导，煤焦弱势运行 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 10 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1527 元/吨，日内录得 0.36%的 涨幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.60 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 1960 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1620 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周 环比持平。现阶段，焦煤供应压力拖累焦炭期货弱势运行，不过考虑到 12 月政治局经济会议或释放宏观利好，以及年末煤矿存减产预期，焦炭下跌 持续性有待观察，主要利空风险在于焦煤供应的超预期宽松。 焦煤：12 月 10 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1070 点，日内下跌 1.29%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 50.73 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+12553 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1170.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 2.5%。近期，蒙煤进口量加速释放，供应端压力带动焦煤弱势运行，但考 虑到 12 月迎来政治 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending December 5, the combined daily average coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1115 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.323 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3,100 tons. Recently, upstream coal mines have offered concessions to coking and steel enterprises. Some coking enterprises have turned losses into profits, while most steel mills are still in the red, resulting in a phased pattern of increased supply and decreased demand for coke. In the short term, the supply pressure of coking coal drags down the weak operation of coke futures. However, considering the potential macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected production cuts at year - end coal mines, the sustainability of the coke price decline remains to be seen. The main downside risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [5][37]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending December 5, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 754,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57,000 tons. At the import end, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port in November was 29,240 vehicles, a 38.5% increase compared to October, and the Mongolian coal import volume in November is expected to reach a new high this year. On the demand side, the combined daily average coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1115 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. Overall, the increase in imported coal supply drives the weak operation of coking coal. However, considering the expected macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected production cuts at year - end coal mines, the sustainability of the current decline in coking coal futures remains to be seen. Attention can be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [6][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work for 2026 and reviewed the "Regulations on the CPC's Leadership over the Comprehensive Advancement of the Rule of Law." The meeting noted that this year is of great significance in the process of Chinese - style modernization. The economy is generally stable with progress, new - quality productivity is developing steadily, and positive progress has been made in risk mitigation in key areas [8]. - On December 8, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur prime coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,500 yuan/ton, including cash and taxes [9]. Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 2.99%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.14%, and a decrease of 9.50% compared to the same period. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month increase of 0.69%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.88%, and a decrease of 10.98% compared to the same period [10]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 6.25%, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%, and a decrease of 9.77% compared to the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week, month - on - month, and compared to the same period, but a year - on - year increase of 5.37%. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 3.51%, a year - on - year increase of 7.84%, and a decrease of 2.37% compared to the same period [10]. Futures Market - For the coke futures active contract, the closing price was 1,537 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.79%. The highest price was 1,600 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,523 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 25,408 lots, an increase of 3,949 lots, and the open interest was 28,088 lots, an increase of 1,550 lots [14]. - For the coking coal futures active contract, the closing price was 1,093.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.14%. The highest price was 1,138 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,082.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 1,129,532 lots, an increase of 343,693 lots, and the open interest was 493,639 lots, an increase of 24,153 lots [14]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to the inventory of coke and coking coal, including the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel - mill coking plants for coke; and the inventory at mine mouths, ports, and in 247 sample steel mills for coking coal. It also includes charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [15][22][29]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal market outlooks is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the current supply - demand situation, the impact of supply pressure on prices, and the uncertainty regarding price decline sustainability due to potential macro - level positive news and expected coal - mine production cuts [37][38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending December 5, the total daily coke output of all independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1115 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.323 million tons, a weekly decrease of 23,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3,100 tons. Recently, upstream coal mines have given profits to coking and steel enterprises. Some coking enterprises have turned losses into profits, while most steel mills are still in the red, resulting in a phased pattern of increased supply and decreased demand for coke. Considering the possible macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal - mine production cuts at the end of the year, the cost - side pressure on coke is expected to have limited room for further increase, and the main contract may gradually stabilize. The downside risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [6][39]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending December 5, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 754,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57,000 tons. In November, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port was 29,240 vehicles, a 38.5% increase from October, and the Mongolian coal import volume in November is expected to reach a new high for the year. The total daily coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1115 million tons, a weekly increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The negative factors in November have been released, and with the expected macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal - mine production cuts at the end of the year, the downside space for coking - coal futures is expected to be limited, and it may stabilize and fluctuate in the near future. Attention should be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [7][40]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal in Shanxi aims to deepen the energy revolution, promote the construction of "Five Major Bases", ensure national energy security, and promote the high - end development of the coal industry and the transformation of coal products from primary fuels to high - value products. It also focuses on the high - quality development of the energy and raw - material industries and the green - low - carbon transformation [9]. - On December 5, the prices of coking coal in the Xingtai market remained stable, with low - sulfur primary coking coal at 1,470 yuan/ton and 1/3 coking coal at 1,180 yuan/ton, both being ex - factory prices including cash and tax [10]. 2. Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 2.99%, an annual decrease of 4.14%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.50%. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly increase of 0.69%, an annual decrease of 9.88%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.98% [11]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 6.25%, an annual increase of 1.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.77%. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, with no weekly, monthly, or year - on - year change, but an annual increase of 5.37%. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a weekly and monthly decrease of 3.51%, an annual increase of 7.84%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.37% [11]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.15%. The highest price was 1,671 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,585 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 214,591 lots, an increase of 18,131 lots, and the open interest was 265,380 lots, a decrease of 527 lots [15]. - The closing price of the active coking - coal futures contract was 1,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.31%. The highest price was 1,193 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1,138.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 785,839 lots, an increase of 448,608 lots, and the open interest was 469,486 lots, an increase of 60,508 lots [15]. 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking - coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking - plant coking - coal inventory), domestic steel - mill production (blast - furnace开工率 and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (coal - washing plant clean - coal inventory and开工率), and coking - plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [16][24][31]. 5. Future Outlook - The future outlook for coke and coking coal is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the current supply - demand situation, potential macro - level positive factors, and expected coal - mine production cuts [39][40].

Group 1: Market Data - The total trading volume of 12 Shanghai tin futures contracts is 264,157 lots, and the total open interest of Shanghai tin contracts is 103,486 lots. The open interest of Shanghai tin contract 2601 is 53,055 lots [5][6] Group 2: Spot Market - The closing price of today's Shanghai tin 2601 contract is 312,370 yuan/ton, the average spot price of Yangtze River spot 1 tin ingots is 309,500 yuan/ton, and the basis is -2,870 yuan/ton [7] Group 3: Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - On the supply side, the global tin ore supply constraint continues to strengthen. Geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo intensify transportation risks. The resumption of production in Myanmar is slower than expected, leading to a year-on-year sharp decline of 61.61% in imports. Indonesia's export policy shrinks the global supply. Although domestic smelters operate stably, the low processing fees for tin ore and raw material shortages restrict production capacity release, driving up the price support sentiment in the spot market [8] - On the demand side, the demand in traditional fields such as consumer electronics is weak. The operating rate of solder enterprises has declined, and they are cautious about taking delivery, which restricts the increase in spot prices. The demand in emerging fields such as AI servers and new energy vehicles is growing, supporting long-term expectations [8] - In terms of inventory, although the domestic visible inventory has slightly rebounded, it remains at a historically low level overall. Overseas inventory continues to be tight [8] Group 4: Market Outlook - In the short term, supported by both tight supply and macro - positive factors, the price of Shanghai tin will maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].