锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月18日 Z0021810 冠帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 289900 | 292100 | -2200 | -0.75% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 600 | 600 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 290400 | 292600 | -2200 | -0.75% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -87.50 | 15.30 | -102.80 | -671.90% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | 进口盈亏 | -15173.89 | -15424.05 | 250.16 | 1.62% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.90 | 7.91 | - | - | | | 月间价差 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in copper prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and weak fundamentals, leading to a downward trend in prices [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The ISM data for October indicates a continued cooling of inflation in the U.S. [1] - Unexpected rebound in ADP employment figures has created a divergence in economic data, increasing internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [1] - The uncertainty surrounding future interest rate paths remains significant [1] Group 2: Fundamental Factors - Previous high prices have led to an accumulation of inventory in the market, resulting in a relatively abundant supply of copper [1] - Slow recovery in consumption is evident, with demand being significantly suppressed by high prices [1] - The limited macroeconomic stimulus on prices suggests that the fundamental recovery for copper remains unsatisfactory, indicating a potential for continued weakness in copper price levels [1]

Group 1 - The report from Citigroup highlights a significant divergence in market sentiment regarding aluminum, a consensus bullish outlook for copper, and persistent short-term uncertainty surrounding zinc [1][3][4] - Citigroup maintains a "structurally bullish" stance on aluminum, citing a demand growth exceeding 3 million tons annually and supply constraints from Indonesia, although the market shows widespread disagreement on this conclusion [3][4] - The copper market is generally viewed positively, with various bullish arguments including projected deficits by 2026 and macro-driven capital inflows, while the zinc market faces bearish sentiment with a lack of confidence in price direction [4][5] Group 2 - Despite the complex signals from the LME week, Citigroup reaffirms its bullish outlook on aluminum and copper, suggesting that macro factors will dominate in the next 3-12 months [5] - The report warns investors about the potential escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait over the next two years, which poses a significant tail risk to bullish trades [5] - The need for caution and protective measures is emphasized for producers and investors, given the ongoing geopolitical and economic risks despite the bullish fundamentals for aluminum and copper [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, indicating that most products are under downward pressure, with short - term macro - driving factors and long - term fundamental factors such as supply - demand imbalances and high inventory contributing to the bearish trend. Although some products have short - term technical rebounds, the overall downward trend remains unchanged [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Logic**: Friday night's sharp decline was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term macro - driving factors accelerating the downward movement. Fundamentally, OPEC+ production increase and the fourth - quarter demand off - season led to increased supply and decreased demand. Even if there is a technical repair, the amplitude may be limited [1][2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day repaired the downward slope to some extent. The upper short - term pressure level is at 456. The strategy is to hold short positions [2]. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors put pressure on the market, but less than on crude oil. In late October, although there are many plant maintenance plans, new devices are also put into production. High supply remains difficult to decline significantly, and high inventory and low downstream start - up rates lead to a downward - driven fundamental situation [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action, but the hourly - level downward trend remained unchanged. The upper short - term pressure level is at 6860. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level and pay attention to position transfer near the contract change [5]. Rubber - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors put pressure on the market, but less than on crude oil. After the typhoon disturbance, the seasonal decline in tire start - up rates in the downstream demand side exceeded expectations, and rubber supply is likely to increase. High inventory pressure leads to a bearish driving force [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day continued the repair action, but the hourly - level downward trend remained unchanged. The upper short - term pressure level is at 15450. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level, with the stop - profit reference at 15450 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The main driving factor is the cost - end butadiene. From October to December, although there are planned maintenance of Zhenhai Phase II devices, the output of new butadiene from Jilin Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical will be gradually released, increasing supply pressure. Short - term macro - driving factors also lead to a downward trend [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action, but the downward structure remained unchanged. The upper short - term pressure level is at 11300. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level, with the stop - profit reference at 11300 [12]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, and the main driving factor is the cost - end crude oil [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action, but the hourly - level downward trend remained unchanged. After the contract change, the upper short - term pressure level for the 01 contract is at 6460 - 6480. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level, with the stop - profit reference at 6460 - 6480 [16]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, and the main driving factor is the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 4530. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level established last night, with the stop - profit reference at 4530 [17]. PP - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors bring some pressure. The high - supply pattern remains unchanged, and the downstream demand peak season has not led to significant inventory reduction. The supply - demand improvement expectation has not been fulfilled. More attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day continued the downward structure, and the short - term pressure level moved down to 6740. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good re - entry point, so continue to wait and see [22]. Methanol - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors have some pressure. Currently, there is high inventory pressure at methanol ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in the start - up rate of Iranian methanol devices. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, it can be used as a long - position hedge. Unilateral trading still needs to pay attention to the time of production reduction of Iranian devices [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. The position - reduction rebound on the day did not break through the pressure and did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 2350. The strategy is to cautiously hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level, with the hourly - line 2350 as the final stop - profit level. For the hedging strategy, methanol can be used as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure [27]. PVC - **Logic**: Short - term macro - impacts are bearish, but the actual impact on PVC is not significant. The supply - demand situation remains weak. High - supply pressure persists, and both domestic demand and exports are under pressure due to the real - estate downturn and India's anti - dumping decision. Inventory has continuously increased to the highest level in the same period, with high - supply, weak - demand, and high - inventory pressure remaining [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 4800. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Short - term macro - driving factors are bearish. The supply - demand situation has not improved, and supply pressure is increasing with capacity expansion. Short - term port inventory has started to accumulate, and the previous low - inventory support is gone [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The late - session position - reduction rebound on the day was a repair action. The upper short - term pressure level is at 4135. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly - level [31]. Plastic - **Logic**: The supply - demand change is limited. Attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure. The upper short - term pressure level is at 7090. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level [35]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory pattern has intensified. The demand side of glass is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The fundamental downward - driving force remains unchanged. Coupled with the return of the macro - downward driving force on Friday night, the downward pressure on the soda ash market continues [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure, and the upper short - term pressure level moved down to 1260. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly - level [36]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Some devices in East and North China have maintenance plans, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The non - aluminum downstream demand has resumed after the holiday, and the inventory pressure has been alleviated. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction rhythm of liquid caustic soda. The current situation is still weak, but the valuation is low, so it is not advisable to chase short positions [38]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The intraday oscillation on the day did not change the downward structure, and the upper short - term pressure level is at 2490. After taking profit before the holiday, there is no good re - entry point, so temporarily wait and see [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the energy and chemical sector, suggesting that investors hold existing short positions [1]. Core Viewpoints - The overall market in the energy and chemical sector is dominated by bears, with most varieties showing downward trends driven by both macro - factors and fundamental supply - demand imbalances. While some short - term technical repairs may occur, the downward pressure remains significant [1][2]. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Logic**: The sharp drop on Friday night was due to Trump's new tariff threat, with short - term trading driven by macro factors. Fundamentally, there is pressure from increased supply and decreased demand due to OPEC+ production increases and the fourth - quarter demand slump. Even if there is a technical repair, the amplitude may be limited [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The trading volume increased today, and the price continued to fall. The short - term resistance is at 465 - 473. The strategy is to hold short positions [2]. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Similar to crude oil, it is pressured by macro factors, but less affected. Despite some plant maintenance plans in late October, new plant launches will keep the high - supply situation. High inventory and low downstream demand also contribute to the downward - facing fundamentals [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, the price reached a new low with increased positions. The short - term resistance is at 6860. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions and pay attention to contract roll - over [5]. Rubber - **Logic**: Macro factors accelerate the decline but are not the main driver. After the typhoon, the downstream tire industry's seasonal decline in demand is greater than expected, and supply is likely to increase, resulting in high inventory pressure [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price dropped to a new low today. The short - term resistance is at 15450. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 15450 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: In the short term, it is pressured by macro factors. The supply of butadiene, the raw material, is expected to increase, driving the price of synthetic rubber down. The short - term market is also affected by macro - downward drivers after Trump's tariff threat [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 11300. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11300 [13]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 6460 - 6480. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6460 - 6480 [15]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation continues to weaken slightly, mainly driven by the cost of crude oil [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 4530. The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4530 [18]. PP - **Logic**: Short - term macro factors bring some pressure. The high - supply situation remains unchanged, and the expected improvement in supply - demand has not been realized. Attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 6740. After taking profits before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so the strategy is to wait and see [22]. Methanol - **Logic**: Short - term macro factors have some pressure. There is still high inventory pressure at ports. Attention should be paid to the seasonal decline in the operation of Iranian methanol plants. It can be used as a long - pairing hedge after the macro - driving force weakens. Unilateral trading should focus on the time when Iranian plants reduce production [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 2350. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously with a stop - profit at 2350. It can be used as a long - pairing after the price breaks through the resistance [24]. PVC - **Logic**: The short - term macro impact is negative but not significant. The supply - demand situation remains weak, with high supply, low demand, and high inventory. The domestic demand and exports are under pressure [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 4800. The strategy is to hold short positions [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Affected by short - term macro factors, the supply - demand situation has not improved. The supply pressure is increasing with capacity expansion, and the port inventory is starting to accumulate. The previous low - inventory support is gone [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 4135. The strategy is to hold short positions [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: The supply - demand change is limited. Attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic due to the decline in crude oil prices [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 7090. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [31]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The high - supply and high - inventory situation is intensifying. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. With the return of the macro - downward driver, the downward pressure on the soda ash market continues [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 1260. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions [35]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Some plants in East and North China are expected to undergo maintenance, and the downstream non - aluminum demand will resume after the holiday, which may relieve the inventory pressure. However, the current valuation is low, and short - selling is not recommended [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. The price reached a new low with increased positions today. The short - term resistance is at 2490. After taking profits before the holiday, there is no good entry point, so the strategy is to wait and see [37].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of macroeconomic factors on various commodities, highlighting the strategic importance of metals like gold, rare earths, tungsten, and tin in the context of global geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts [3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Drivers - The article emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are leading to increased monetary competition among countries, which is expected to influence commodity prices [3]. - Geopolitical disturbances are driving demand for safe-haven assets, particularly gold, as countries navigate through global uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand landscape for industrial metals such as copper and aluminum is evolving, with emerging industries expected to release significant demand for lithium, diamonds, and nickel [3]. - There is a collective expectation among global nations for policy support to stabilize and enhance the supply-demand balance in the commodities market [3].

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - After the Fed's interest rate cut met expectations, the market returned to fundamental trading. Attention should be paid to supply - demand changes and industry profit conditions. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has slightly improved, while that of plates has weakened, and prices may face pressure [1]. Summary by Related Directory - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures fluctuated weakly. Spot steel transactions were generally weak, with a significant decline compared to the previous period. Rebar spot prices held firm, and the basis widened. Hot - rolled coil prices generally followed the decline of the futures. The national building materials transaction volume was 87,900 tons. This week, rebar production decreased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. Hot - rolled coil production slightly increased, inventory grew, and apparent demand declined [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Currently, rebar supply has contracted, and demand has recovered from a low level, with a slight improvement in the supply - demand pattern. However, the downstream has not improved, and the peak season remains to be verified. Plate demand has weakened, and the fundamental supply - demand pattern has deteriorated, with prices likely to be under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The global shipment of iron ore has significantly increased, pig iron production has continued to rise, and inventory has slightly declined, remaining at a medium level. Considering the pre - holiday restocking demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience [3]. Summary by Related Directory - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports slightly declined. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly purchased on a just - in - time basis. The national main port iron ore cumulative trading volume was 974,000 tons, a 23.00% decline from the previous day. Forward spot cumulative trading volume was 2.08 million tons (12 transactions), a 115.54% increase from the previous day (with a mine trading volume of 410,000 tons) [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The global shipment of iron ore has significantly increased, pig iron production has continued to rise, and inventory has slightly declined, remaining at a medium level. Considering the pre - holiday restocking demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience. Attention should be paid to the impact of the floating volume on arrivals and the pre - holiday restocking rhythm of steel mills [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Before the National Day, downstream restocking led to a significant increase in coking coal and coke inventory. It is expected that coking coal and coke will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Related Directory - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. For coke, coke enterprises' production was stable at a high level, and the supply side had no obvious inventory pressure. For coking coal, as the double festivals approached, downstream enterprises began pre - holiday restocking, and coal prices rebounded by 20 - 80 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal in the spot market dropped to 1,000 yuan/ton. Coking coal and coke inventory increased compared to the previous period, indicating strong downstream restocking willingness. Coking coal production growth slowed down, and coke production slightly increased [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, price cuts have been implemented, and supply is relatively stable, while downstream rigid demand remains resilient. For coking coal, pre - holiday restocking demand has been released, and coking coal inventory has continued to decline. Coupled with domestic policy expectations, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile in unilateral trading. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Coal demand is improving, and prices are rising. In the short term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summary by Related Directory - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the prices of main - producing areas continued to rise. Currently, the stocking demand for chemical and civil use is good, terminal demand has increased, and combined with the increase in the external purchase price of large groups, the transportation demand of surrounding coal yards and stations has been released. Some coal mines have low inventory, and the number of coal - pulling trucks has increased, leading to continuous price increases. In the port market, the sentiment is good, and the transaction price center has moved up. Some traders are more reluctant to sell due to shipping cost support and tight resources, and the prices of some high - quality coal varieties have increased. In the import market, the tender price of imported coal continued to rise, the decline of domestic coal prices narrowed, low - calorie coal prices rebounded, and the price difference between domestic and foreign coal shrank [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Production area supply is gradually recovering, and the daily consumption of thermal coal has decreased. In the short term, prices will fluctuate. In the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - **Strategy**: Not provided

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Macroscopically, a September interest rate cut is likely, but its impact on copper prices depends on the reason and background. The "stagflation-like" environment in the US restricts the scope of rate cuts. In the short term, rate cuts boost copper's financial attributes, raising the bottom price, but the upside is limited. - Fundamentally, it presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectations." The demand may weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but the supply - demand deterioration is limited. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve marginally, and the terminal demand is resilient. Copper prices are expected to at least remain volatile, and a new upward cycle requires the resonance of commodity and financial attributes. The reference range for the main contract is 79,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market shows a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." The short - term import of bauxite is tight, but new production capacity is continuously being put into operation. The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short term. - For aluminum, macro factors support the price, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. However, the price increase is restricted by the 20,900 - 21,000 yuan/ton pressure range. It is expected to fluctuate around the actual fulfillment of peak - season demand, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,200 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the expectation of Fed rate cuts boosts the sentiment of commodities. The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is affected by tax policy adjustments, and the demand has slightly recovered but needs verification. The price of ADC12 is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The improvement of rate - cut expectations boosts zinc prices. The supply side is expected to be loose, and the demand side is about to enter the peak season. The low global inventory supports the price. In the short term, the price may be driven by macro factors, but the upside is limited, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. The spot market transactions are differentiated. The tin price is expected to remain high and volatile. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of the rate - cut rhythm remains unchanged. Industrially, the spot trading of refined nickel is average, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The profit of stainless steel is in deficit, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market shows a weak trend. The raw material prices are firm, and the supply pressure exists. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the social inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is in a tight balance. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is optimistic as it enters the peak season. The overall inventory has decreased. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the main contract reference range of 70,000 - 72,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose by 0.54% to 80,175 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 25 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread and other indicators also changed to varying degrees. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. In July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The inventory of various types also changed [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose by 0.53% to 20,860 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton. The prices of alumina in different regions also changed. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 7.7382 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30%. The inventory also showed corresponding changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 rose by 0.48% to 20,960 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of various types increased. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy increased [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose by 0.41% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 5 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 626,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%. In July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35%. The inventory also changed [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price rose by 0.37% to 271,100 yuan/ton, and the premium remained unchanged. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The inventory of various types also changed [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased slightly. The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also changed. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of Chinese refined nickel products increased by 1.26% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 8.46%. The inventory of various types also changed [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained unchanged. The raw material prices remained stable. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased by 3.83% month - on - month, and the net export volume increased by 22.37%. The inventory decreased [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The prices of lithium - related raw materials also decreased. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.55% month - on - month, and the demand increased by 8.25%. The inventory decreased [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Short - term stock index futures basis widens again, and with liquidity drive, short - term index adjustment may bring long - position layout opportunities [1]. - Short - term gold price may shift to high - level consolidation, but the long - term center of gravity still has upward space; silver may run at a high level in the short term but has the risk of increased volatility [1]. - Aluminum price fluctuates due to weak domestic downstream demand in the off - season and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut; zinc price has limited downside space despite inventory pressure; nickel price follows the macro trend in the short term and long - term surplus pressure remains [1]. - Stainless steel futures fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills; tin price is strong in the short term; industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have their own market characteristics and influencing factors [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil have neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro drivers; iron ore has upward opportunities in the far - month contracts; coal and coke prices are under pressure [1]. - Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to run in a volatile manner; rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed; cotton price may range - bound in the short term; sugar supply is expected to be loose; corn has limited short - term rebound and downward space in the medium term [1]. - Crude oil, fuel oil, and other energy - related products are affected by geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations; various chemical products such as PTA, short - fiber, and styrene have their own market trends and influencing factors [1]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to weak fundamentals; copper price is expected to rise; some products like soda ash and ethylene glycol face supply - surplus pressure [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Treasury bonds**: No clear trend judgment provided [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term high - level consolidation, long - term upward space [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term high - level operation with increased volatility risk [1]. Non - ferrous metals - **Aluminum**: Fluctuates due to domestic demand and Fed rate - cut expectation, pay attention to far - month long - position opportunities [1]. - **Zinc**: Limited downside space, be cautious about short - selling in the short term [1]. - **Nickel**: Follows macro trend in the short term, long - term surplus pressure exists, focus on short - term trading and selling hedging opportunities [1]. - **Stainless steel**: Short - term weak fluctuations, pay attention to actual production of steel mills [1]. - **Tin**: Strong in the short term [1]. - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, high hedging pressure, polysilicon production cut expected [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Capacity reduction expected in the long - term, low terminal installation willingness, good profit [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Frequent resource - end disturbances, large short - term downstream replenishment, limited subsequent replenishment space [1]. Ferrous metals - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: Neutral valuations, unclear industrial drivers, warm macro drivers [1]. - **Iron ore**: Upward opportunities in far - month contracts [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Prices are under pressure [1]. Agricultural products - **Palm oil and soybean oil**: Expected to run in a volatile manner, consider exiting long positions [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Recommended to observe [1]. - **Cotton**: Short - term range - bound [1]. - **Sugar**: Supply expected to be loose, price with upper - bound pressure [1]. - **Corn**: Limited short - term rebound, downward space in the medium term [1]. - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 positive spread [1]. - **Log**: Weakly fluctuating [1]. - **Pig**: Bearish due to increased supply and lower costs [1]. Energy and chemicals - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: Affected by geopolitics, OPEC+ policies, and Fed rate - cut expectations [1]. - **PTA**: Production resumes, price difference expands, and short - term upward momentum is strong [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory overhauls increase, and warehouse receipts increase [1]. - **Styrene**: Bearish due to industry reform rumors and weakening market transactions [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside space, supported by cost [1]. - **PVC**: Fluctuates weakly, with supply pressure and more near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Affected by international oil prices, CP prices, and downstream profit conditions [1]. Others - **Shipping**: Supply exceeds the same - period level, and freight rates decline [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals put pressure on prices [1]. - **Copper**: Expected to rise, consider stopping profit for spot - futures positive spread [1]. - **Soda ash**: Bearish due to supply surplus [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by industry reform rumors and hedging pressure [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The external macro - narrative is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the medium - term, which support the valuation of the black series. In the short - term, terminal demand is weakening, iron ore supply is steadily rising, demand is falling from a high level, and the overall supply - demand relationship is shifting from tight to balanced. Short - term iron ore lacks upward drivers and is expected to follow the sector. The price will fluctuate within a range [2][3]. Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Supply - Outer - mine shipments maintain a high growth rate. Australian and Brazilian shipments have been higher than the historical average for three consecutive weeks, Vale's shipments reached a five - year high, and non - mainstream shipments have been higher than last year's level for four consecutive weeks. The arrival volume is slightly lower than last year, and supply pressure is expected to gradually increase [2]. Demand - China's daily average pig iron output has slightly declined to 240.13 (a week - on - week decrease of 0.62). The steel mill profitability rate is continuously falling, and blast furnace profits are approaching the break - even point. With the parade - related production restrictions in North China, although the full - scale loss of short - process steelmaking protects iron ore demand to some extent, the support from domestic demand for prices is weakening [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills has declined but remains high. The steel mill inventory has decreased due to more maintenance in North China. The port inventory has slightly decreased, and with high daily consumption and high pig iron output, the inventory is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with no significant pressure to accumulate [2]. Price - The price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore (2601 contract) will be in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 101 - 104 [3].