投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 市场情绪反复，纯苯苯乙烯跟随 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-12 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：商品市场波动放大，纯苯苯乙烯震荡运行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 关于苯乙烯的经济性，苯乙烯与石脑油的价差为290美元，苯乙烯与苯的价差稳定在165美元，亚洲生产者的经济状况有所恢复，但仍然是负面的。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 截至2026年1月5日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：31.8万吨，较上期库存30.0万吨上升1.8万吨，环比增加6.00%；较去年同期库存18.52万吨累库13.28 | | | | 万吨，同比上升71.71%。12月29日-1月4日，不完全统计到货约2.5万吨，提货约0.7万吨。 | | 库存 | 中性 ...

养殖油脂研究中心|农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月10日星期六 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告 摘要 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链周度策略报告 撑位，压力位关注3580-3600元/吨； 豆油：本周，豆油主力合约上涨。进口大豆启动拍卖，对豆 ...

2026年，全球甲基丙烯酸甲酯(MMA)和丙烯酸酯市场将持续面临需求疲软不均、贸易流向生变、采购 心态谨慎的多重压力，尽管部分地区供应趋紧的信号已有所显现。 在欧洲，2026年第一季度需求疲软，但欧洲MMA市场预计仍将收紧，因为来自亚洲的套利窗口将保持 关闭状态。2025年四季度中后期，东亚至西北欧的MMA价差收窄至无利可图，进口陷入停滞。普氏数 据显示，2025年11月西北欧MMA到岸价均价为1297.18欧元/吨，已接近亚洲MMA离岸价。一家欧洲分 销商透露，当前市场已无亚洲货源流入，本土生产商正全力抢占2026年合约订单。由于套利机会有限， 贸易商们避免建立多头仓位，导致2026年年初现货供应减少，而补货可能对价格构成压力。除了进口不 足外，欧洲MMA供应还受到意大利盛禧奥集团10万吨/年工厂停产影响。 不过，中东低价MMA货源持续冲击欧洲市场，并成为价格下行的主要动力。与此同时，罗姆公司位于 美国得克萨斯州的25万吨/年LiMA装置产能正稳步提升，该装置2025年11月负荷率已达75%，预计2026 年一季度将达满负荷运行，这意味着未来欧洲市场或将迎来更多美国货源。标普全球能源咨询公司 MMA首席分析 ...

来源：中国能源网 二季度，宏观面影响行情波动剧烈。4月份因美国加征关税，导致下游合成橡胶期货大幅跳水，并且华 南以及华北地区新产能顺利投产，部分工厂检修延期以及进口船货陆续到港等多重利空因素打压业者信 心，商家不断大幅让利出货，丁二烯行情呈现宽幅下滑走势。随着丁二烯阶段性降至低位，5月中上旬 中美经贸高层会谈得到实质性进展，双方互降关税，宏观面利好消息大幅提振下游合成期货盘面暴涨， 市场竞拍货源大幅溢价成交，多重利好因素推动丁二烯快速拉涨。但随着丁二烯价格涨至高位，终端需 求实质性未有明显起色，下游实单成交欠佳，部分顺丁企业装置被迫降负运行，需求面对市场难以形成 支撑，从而拖拽市场成交重心不断下移。虽受部分装置停车以及突发事件给予丁二烯市场炒作空间，但 因下游主力产品期、现货表现欠佳，导致市场高端报盘实单支撑不足，交投气氛较为低迷。 三季度，丁二烯行情宽幅震荡。7月份，由于进口船货到港有限，华东码头货源紧张，同时宏观面影响 大宗商品普涨，合成期货盘面偏强拉动供方价格走高，中间商惜售心态显现，市场低价货源难寻。8月 中旬，东北新产能顺利投产，且华东进口船货陆续到港，市场紧张局面有所缓和，同时政策消息利空导 致下 ...

化工日报 | 2026-01-07 宏观氛围较好，关注成本端变动 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，美国闪击委内瑞拉一事并没有引起市场恐慌，但伊朗局势在逐步紧张化。消息称美国似乎正考虑对伊朗 实施干预，以色列方同样释放信号。中东地缘再度支撑油价反弹。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN362美元/吨(环比变动-2.38美元/吨）。国内外PX装置平稳运行，依靠目前宽松的MX供 应环境，即使部分工厂重整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效维持。近期PXN大幅上涨至季节性高位，效益提升 下海外重启计划增多，另外内外盘套利会带来更多进口，供应端存增加预期。明年二季度PX检修计划较多，远端 预期仍较好，同时聚酯开工坚挺下PXN有支撑，但调油无明显起色，当前供应增加和聚酯需求下滑风险逐步显现， PTA工厂开始卖PX，关注资金动向以及下游聚酯负荷变动。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -46元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+3元/吨），PTA现货加工费316元/吨（环比变动-52元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费328元/吨（环比变动+13元/吨），近端PTA装置有所回归，聚酯负荷下降但整体减产不如预 期,PTA12月平衡表去库, 1月累库 ...

期货研究 烧碱：短期偏强，中期震荡 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 03合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2194 690 2156 -38 2026 年 1 月 7 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 以山东地区为基准，1 月 6 日山东液碱市场价格弱势持稳，个别价格高位走货不佳企业价格补跌，高度 碱订单寥寥，出口价格低位，市场价格继续下调。 【市场状况分析】 元旦节前后，烧碱 2601 合约大幅下跌，主要因 01 合约仓单较多，多头接货压力大，交割因素导致资金 大量平仓。近月合约的压力和现货持续降价也导致节后烧碱其余合约大幅走弱。然而，从交割情况看，01 合 约周一夜盘 1940 元/吨的收盘价，多头接货不亏钱，该价格远低于山东魏桥采购价，其贴水现货程度足以覆 盖仓储及交易成本，因此，短期基于交割因素导致的下跌将有限。市场在反内卷情绪带动下，存在短期反弹 行情。 从基本面看，烧碱仍是高产量、高库存格局 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 | | 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场逻辑】 周一，郑糖主力合约低 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a weak demand situation, with the disk under short - term pressure and mainly in a range - bound pattern. The iron ore market has support in the short - term but lacks the impetus to break through upwards. The coke and coking coal markets face fundamental pressure despite some expectations of stimulus policies. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are recommended to go long on dips [2][3][6][7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - The steel disk continued to decline today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread steel decreased, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased, and inventory continued to fall, but pressure remains. Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, and the blast furnace production reduction trend has slowed significantly. Iron water production has stabilized and rebounded in the short - term. Downstream real estate investment decline continued to expand, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continued to fall. Domestic demand is still weak, steel exports remain high, and the December PMI rose to 50.1, but its sustainability needs to be observed. The market sentiment is cautious, demand expectations are still weak, and the disk is under short - term pressure, mainly in a range - bound pattern [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore disk fluctuated today. On the supply side, the global shipment this period decreased month - on - month, slightly stronger than the same period last year, in line with seasonal change rules. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both declined, but they are still relatively high year - on - year. The domestic arrival volume increased this period, and it is expected to remain high in the short - term, with port inventory continuing to accumulate. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and steel mill profitability has improved recently. Last week, iron water production increased month - on - month. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased continuously but is still at a low level, and there is still some rigid restocking demand in the future. The iron ore disk has short - term support, but the impetus to break through upwards is insufficient. The situation in Venezuela has a very limited impact on the direct supply and demand of iron ore, and future market trends need to be monitored. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward during the day. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Coke inventory has increased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing small quantities as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron water production is at a seasonal low, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel profits have slightly recovered, but the sentiment of squeezing raw material prices is still strong. The coke disk is at a premium, and after the price corrects the discount, it still faces certain fundamental pressure. However, the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, and capital games on the disk have intensified [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward during the day. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased. At the end of the year, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production due to safety production and the completion of annual production tasks. Spot auction transactions are okay, and the transaction price has increased slightly. Terminal inventory has increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory has increased slightly, and the production - end inventory has decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron water production is at a seasonal low, but the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel profits have slightly recovered, but the sentiment of squeezing raw material prices is still strong. The coke disk is at a premium [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated weakly during the day. Driven by the rebound of the disk, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost - effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the amount of oxidized ore decreases, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase. The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore increased last week. On the demand side, iron water production decreased seasonally. The weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly, and the silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [6] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price fluctuated downward during the day. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there are certain expectations of a decline in electricity costs and blue - carbon prices. On the demand side, iron water production has rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand still has some resilience. Silicon iron supply has decreased significantly, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：短线偏强 中期震荡市 | 供应 | 全国浮法玻璃生产线共计265条，在产212条，日熔量共计151405吨，较上周减少2700吨，行业产能利用率82.14%。周内产线停产及 冷修4条，暂无点火及改产线。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 截至20251215，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.7天，环比-4.2%，同比-22.6%。目前来看，北部区域深加工订单环比继续下滑，中部及东 部整体变化不大，华南订单环比仍适度增加，西南区域内增降并存，订单均值环比小幅下滑。全国深加工样本企业散单仍集中在3-7天，部分 | | | 工程类订单排期缩短至15-20天。 | | | 截至12月31日，重点监测省份生产企业库存总量5378万重量箱，较上周四库存减少155万重量箱，降幅2.80%，库存天数28.66天，较上周四库 | | 库存 | ...

截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属普涨，仅沪铅和沪锡一同下跌，沪铅跌0.66%，沪锡跌0.45%。沪铝、沪 镍一同涨逾2%，沪镍涨2.44%，盘中最高冲至135570元/吨，续刷2025年3月以来的新高；沪铝涨 2.25%，盘中最高冲至23030元/吨，刷新2022年3月以来的新高。沪铜涨0.84%，沪锌小幅上涨0.06%。 氧化铝主连涨1.42%，铸造铝主连涨1.75%。 此外，碳酸锂主连涨0.86%，工业硅主连跌0.17%，多晶硅主连涨1.03%。欧线集运主连涨0.52%报 1801.3。 来源：上海有色网 金属市场： | 初始 代码 | | 名称 | ●業 | 最新 | 涨幅% | 深武失 | 总量 | 现慢 | 买入价 | 英H价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 ecm | | 欧线集运主连 | $ | 1801.3 | 0.52 | 9.3 | 2.1575 | 1 | 1800.1 | 1801.6 | | 8 | CLOOY | NYMEX原油 | 9 | 57.89 | -0.10 | ...