在A股市场近期呈现的强劲连阳攻势中，东吴证券称，杠杆资金与散户资金成为推动本轮行情的绝对主力，再加上游资和外资等共同发力，市场 风险偏好显著提升。 1月13日，东吴证券策略团队在最新研报中称，尽管央行因跨年后逆回购集中到期而累计净回笼1.66万亿元，但并未对市场流动性造成实质性冲 击，银行间市场资金利率反而出现下行，宽松格局延续，叠加人民币汇率升值至6.98一线，为权益资产提供了有利的货币环境。 2026年开年首周（1月3日至1月9日），A股市场放量大涨，万得全A指数上涨5.1%，日均成交金额环比激增逾7000亿元至2.85万亿元。 东吴证券指出，在这一放量过程中，融资余额创历史新高达2.61万亿元，占全A流通市值比重升至2.53%，处于2021年以来96%的历史分位。散户 情绪升温加速入场，以小单刻画的资金净流入1557亿元，创近一年来第二高点。 同时，游资活跃度同步攀升至近半年新高，龙虎榜上榜营业部日均成交金额达314亿元。外资"做多"情绪升温，陆股通日均成交金额环比回升986 亿元至3272亿元，海外被动资金转为净流入。 值得注意的是，随着指数连续上攻，短期波动率已处于相对高位。东吴证券指出，在当前量能 ...

晨报 煤焦 逻辑：上周，黑色金属板块普涨，焦煤涨幅超 7%。近日央行强调把 促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效 运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，强化宽货币政策预期，提升市场风险 偏好，刺激估值相对偏低的黑色金属板块情绪回暖。此外，市场减产传闻 及榆林市部分煤矿核减产能，主要涉及动力煤，对焦煤实际供应影响相对 有限。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，开年之后，煤矿迎来陆续复产，上周炼焦原煤、精煤 产量分别回升至 189.9 万吨、73.4 万吨，矿端原煤保持增库，精煤库存 有所去化，主要是下游焦钢企业也有复产情况，对原料保持一定采购节奏。 进口端，上周蒙煤甘其毛都口岸日通关量 16.46 万吨，高于去年同期 3.74 万吨，且口岸库存也保持相对高位。需求端，近两周钢厂盈利率小幅扩张， 高炉日均铁水产量止降回升，1 月 9 日当周为 229.5 万吨，环比前一周增 加 2.07 万吨，同比去年增加 5.13 万吨，预计短期呈现稳步小幅回升态势， 后期钢厂对原料的补库节奏有望加快，支撑上游挺价信心。 原材料：程 鹏 煤焦：供需双增 盘面波动加剧 投资咨询业务资格： 负责 ...

比特币交易所交易基金在2026年开年表现强劲，头两个交易日净流入超10亿美元，分析师称这一现象反 映出投资者风险偏好正重新升温。但这一乐观态势迅速瓦解，连续三日的资金流出让比特币的价格前景 再添新的不确定性。 据数据机构Farside Investors统计，美国上市的11只比特币现货ETF在过去三天累计录得11.28亿美元净流 出，这波连续三日的资金外流，几乎抹平了今年头两个交易日录得的11.6亿美元净流入额。 他补充道："宏观环境同样收紧了市场风险偏好，交易员正持续等待积极的宏观信号。整体的避险情绪 不仅影响了股市，也蔓延到了加密货币市场。" 在ETF资金外流的背景下，加密货币市场已陷入避险状态，比特币价格从周一超过94600美元的高点回 落至90000美元。Coin Desk数据显示，周四盘中比特币价格一度跌至89300美元下方。与迷因币和去中 心化金融代币挂钩的Coin Desk指数，同样从周一高点出现回落。 随着美国月度就业数据的发布以及最高法院有关进口税的裁决落地，市场波动性可能在周五晚些时候加 剧。 美国12月非农就业报告定于世界协调时间周五13：30发布。该数据可能会影响市场对美联储降息的押 ...

宏观层面，地缘风险溢价仍在，但今日铸造铝价格走势随电解铝、铜及贵金属一同回调。特朗普政府 2026 年对委内瑞拉发动军事打击后，又将目光锁定格陵兰岛，且接连干预多国内政。这一系列举动引 发多头对全球政治局势动荡的强烈担忧，为规避风险，多头选择在价格高点获利了结。受此影响，人民 币震荡走弱，全球股市大面积下挫，市场风险偏好受到一定压制，铸造铝价格因此承压下行。 基本面方面，原料端，因进口废铝与国产废铝供应均偏紧，这使得铸造铝价格跌幅受限，成本端对铸造 铝价格形成有力支撑。需求端表现依旧疲软，行业步入季节性消费淡季，年末氛围渐浓，合金厂开工率 持续下滑，汽车行业消费需求也有所下降，铸造铝采购需求低迷。现货市场上，持货商报价依旧坚挺， 下调幅度不大，下游企业谨慎入场，日内交易仅维持刚需。第二交易时段，铸造铝盘面价格走低，持货 商报价略有下调，小部分买方追跌补货，但市场流通货源零星，实质性成交稀少，整体成交活跃度一 般。 综合来看，铝合金需求将逐步进入淡季，合金厂按需生产导致开工率回落，但成本端支撑稳固，加之持 仓上升，铸造铝价格将维持高位震荡格局。此外，铝合金价格走势与铝价紧密相关，当铝价（AL）回 落时，更有利于 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the stock index is expected to remain relatively strong as it broke through the previous oscillation range last week. In 2026, the rapid rise phase driven by liquidity and market risk preference may have ended, and the A - share "slow - bull" pattern is entering the second half. With macro - policy support, inflation warming, and capital market policy guidance, the stock index is expected to rise further in 2026 compared to 2025. Futures traders can use the futures discount structure to enhance the winning rate of long - position strategies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rates and Bond Markets - DR001 closed at 1.24 with a - 0.21bp change, DR007 at 1.69 with a 9.30bp change, GC001 at 2.04 with a 20.00bp change, and GC007 at 2.05 with a 2.50bp change. SHBOR 3M was at 1.60 with no change, and LPR 5 - year was at 3.50 with no change. The 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese government bonds were at 1.34, 1.61, and 1.86 respectively, with changes of 0.50bp, 1.25bp, and 0.20bp. The 10 - year US Treasury bond was at 4.12 with a - 2.00bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 673 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net investment was 4150 billion yuan. This week (December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026), 6227 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [3][4]. Stock Indexes and Futures - The closing prices and changes of major stock indexes: the CSI 300 rose 0.26% to 4651, the SSE 50 rose 0.06% to 3037, the CSI 500 rose 0.38% to 7459, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.04% to 7597. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 21426 billion yuan, a slight increase of 33 billion yuan. Industry sectors showed more declines than increases [5][6]. - The trading volume and position changes of stock index futures: IF volume was 94429 with a - 1.8% change, and its position was 281129 with a 1.9% change; IH volume was 41166 with a 4.2% change, and its position was 88407 with a 1.3% change; IC volume was 117475 with a 4.2% change, and its position was 288847 with a 4.7% change; IM volume was 163327 with a 2.3% change, and its position was 372661 with a 3.0% change [5]. - The current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts of IF had an average premium of 3.55%, 3.21%, 2.85%, and 3.36% respectively; IH had 0.81%, 0.73%, 0.17%, and 0.71% respectively; IC had 0.50%, 3.91%, 4.77%, and 7.38% respectively; IM had 0.99%, 7.14%, 8.29%, and 10.38% respectively [7].

Group 1: Report Core View - Last week, the gold price continued to rise, with New York gold breaking through $4,500 and Shanghai gold breaking through the 1,000-yuan mark. After the meetings of the US and Japanese central banks ended, market liquidity recovered, and the US dollar index remained weak, which was positive for the gold price. In the long run, although the gold price has broken through the late-October high, its overall performance is far inferior to other precious metals and copper, mainly due to the high short-term market risk appetite and the decline in the safe-haven demand for gold. Before the New Year's Day holiday, continuous attention should be paid to the long-short game at the $4,500 mark of New York gold, and beware of the risk of a high-level pullback before the holiday [5][21] Group 2: Market Review 2.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing prices [9] 2.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | December 26 | December 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,562.00 | $4,368.70 | 4.42% | | COMEX Silver | $79.68 | $67.40 | 18.22% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 1,016.30 yuan | 979.90 yuan | 3.71% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 18,319.00 yuan | 15,376.00 yuan | 19.14% | | US Dollar Index | 98.03 | 98.72 | -0.69% | | USD/CNH | 7.00 | 7.03 | -0.41% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.91 | 1.92 | -0.01 | | S&P 500 | 6,929.94 | 6,834.50 | 1.40% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $56.93 | $56.65 | 0.49% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 57.26 | 64.82 | -11.67% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 55.48 | 63.73 | -12.95% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,071.13 tons | 1,052.54 tons | 18.59 tons | | iShare Gold ETF | 492.64 tons | 491.82 tons | 0.82 tons | [10] Group 3: Liquidity Recovery after Japanese Yen Interest Rate Hike - After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, the market showed a "boot landing" situation, with a significant recovery in short-term liquidity. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling to the 98 mark, which was positive for the gold price [12] Group 4: Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1,563.77 tons, an increase of 19.41 tons from the previous week. After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, precious metals generally rose, with silver's increase significantly larger than that of gold, and the gold-silver ratio continued to weaken, dropping below 60 last week [16][18]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a historical high of $12,960 per ton before retreating, with a current increase of 3.27% to $12,560 per ton [1] - Shanghai copper futures for February rose by 0.76% to ¥98,860 per ton, after hitting a record high of ¥102,660 per ton last Friday [1] - Analysts indicate that profit-taking by investors and a decrease in market risk appetite are contributing to the current price adjustments [1] Group 2 - Shanghai copper saw an approximate 6% increase last week, while London copper prices rose by 1.93% [2] - The market is anticipating the release of the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes, which may influence future interest rate decisions [2] - Technical analysts predict LME copper may retreat to the range of $12,344 to $12,544 per ton this week, facing strong resistance around $12,869 per ton [2]

| CTERHH | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/12/ | 人业资格号:F02519 | | | | | | | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 品种 | 昨日股指进一步上行,市场成交量有所放大,市场情绪和流动性 | 股指 | 维持良好态势。短期股指突破前期震荡区间,预计仍将保持偏强 | | 运行态势。 | 六八守 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | 国债 | 震荡 | 日本央行利率决策。 | | | 近期产业面偏弱,而宏观情绪向好,铜价维持偏强。 | 近期国内电解铝有所累库，产业驱动有限,而宏观情绪向好, | 铝 | 价震荡偏强运行 | | | | | 国家发改委提出对氧化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业,强化管 | 氧化铝 | 震荡 | 理、优化布局,氧化铝超跌反弹,关注政策持续性。 | 锌基本面有所好转,成本中枢上移,近期利空因素已基本兑现。 | | | | 随着市场风险偏好好转,锌价震荡偏强。 | 宏观情绪转暖。印尼12月镍矿升水仍 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程点评 12 月末或为建仓时点：小盘迎来强势期 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 12 月最后三天或迎来建仓窗口，卖出压力年末充分释放。1 月险资、对冲盘有望大幅 回流，风险偏好重回上行。量化策略风格敞口有望放开，风格聚焦中证 1000、中证 2000 及小微盘，行业端建议关注化工 ETF、机械 ETF、电池 ETF、科创 50ETF、券商 ETF。 ❑ 为何此时对 1 月行情边际乐观？ 12 月资金面扰动临近尾声，1 月资金面大幅改善。12 月中上旬的回调系资金面 扰动及风险偏好回落，A 股两大核心牛市基础并未改变。首先，美元贬值趋势尚 未改变，美国财政货币双宽预期强化，12 月 9 日以来人民币升值趋势较强，已 突破 7，美元贬值是新兴市场，尤其是 A 股上涨的重要基础。2026 年 A 股最大 资金增量来自居民存款搬家，且当下来看，存款通过券商开户直接买卖股票的形 式量级有限，其更多通过银行理财底层增配权益资产比例的形式流入 A 股，因 此 2026 年固收+和二级债基等品种需求有望持续增长，且这类资金将推升以 A500 为代表的龙头股牛市。但值得一提的是，由于存款搬家涉及理财、固收+ ...

2 6日国际贵金属价格强势上涨 本周金银价格均累计显著上涨。 当地时间周五，是美国传统节假日后的首个交易日，市场正处于年末与新年交汇的低流动 性环境。受非必需消费品板块以及能源板块下跌的拖累，美国三大股指收盘微跌。其中， 道指下跌0 . 0 4%，标普5 0 0指数下跌0.03%，纳指下跌0.09%。公司方面，芯片制造商英 伟达股价周五收涨超1%，此前有消息称，公司同意以2 0 0亿美元收购人工智能芯片公司 Gr oq。同一天，欧洲多国股市因节假日继续休市。 本周美国三大股指累计上涨超1.2% 本周，受传统节假日影响，美国股市仅有三个完整交易日，最新发布的强劲经济数据稳定 了投资者对于企业盈利前景将持续扩张的信心，市场风险偏好得到提振，利好科技股，也 带 动 三 大 指 数 全 部 累 计 上 涨 。 其 中 ， 道 指 累 计 上 涨 1.20% ， 标 普 5 0 0 指 数 累 计 上 涨 1 . 4 0%，纳指累计上涨1.22%。 2 6日国际油价下跌 本周仍累计上涨 2 6日国际贵金属价格强势上涨 本周金银价格均累计显著上涨 贵金属市场上，市场押注美联储明年将继续实施宽松货币政策，美元指数跌至两个多 ...