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| | | | Mir | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月09日 | | 棉花 | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 | なな女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 天然橡胶 | ★★★ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续回调，主力合约持仓继续成少。现货销售一般，基差稳中持稳。截至12月底全国棉花商业库存为578.47万吨，环 比增加110.11万吨，同比增加9.96万吨，12月中旬时商业库存同比小幅偏少。销售进度偏快。也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前 处于淡季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月25号，累计加工皮棉669.7万吨，同比增 ...

免责声明 | 贵金属期现日报 | | | | TE FEAR | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 2026年1月8日 | | | | | | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月7日 | 1月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | 998.90 | 1004.98 | -6.08 | -0.60% | 元/克 | | AG2604合约 | 19290 | 19452 | -162 | -0.83% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | 598.50 | 616.80 | -18.30 | -2.97% | 元/克 | | PD2606合约 | 475.95 | 471.90 | 4.05 | 0.86% | | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月7日 | 1月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4467.10 | 4505.70 | ...

今天郑棉大幅回调，持仓大幅减少，商品集体回落,郑棉近期上涨也是主要受到预期带动,下游情况总体一般。现货销售一 般,基差稳中偏弱。虽然新棉增产幅度较大,但商业库存同比偏低,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。目前处于淡 季，但需求总体持稳。截至12月25号，累计加工皮棉669.7万吨，同比增加75.8万吨，较过去四年均值增加141.4万吨。国内商 业库存同比偏低,截至12月15号，全国棉花商业库存为534.9万吨，同比减少1.63万吨。国内新疆种植面积减少的政策落实,但 具体减少幅度并未提及。纺企对于原料需求仍存韧性，纺企成品库存不高，但下游订单需求一般。操作上多单离场暂时观望。 (白糖) | | | | Mir | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年01月08日 | | 棉花, | ☆☆☆ | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ななな | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 20号胶 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 www.itf.com.cn ITG国贸期货 数据日报 ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ------22/23 ------23/24 24/25 25/26 RM1-5 1000 258 11 800 价差数据 豆粕-菜粕 656 36 现货价差(广东) 200 豆粕-菜粕 392 6 盘面价差(主力) 07/27 08/22 10/22 10/23 11/23 12/24 01/24 02/24 升贴水-连续月 产地 美元兑人民币汇率 涨跌 盘面榨利(元/吨) (美分/蒲) 157. 00 品显 6. 9594 158 0 2025年大豆CNF升贴水走势图-连续月 (美分/蒲式耳) 2025年进口大亨盘面毛利(元/吨) 一巴西2月 一 巴西3月 巴西1月 ====== 巴西4月 · 巴西1月 巴西2月 一巴西3月 ===== 巴西4月 ----- 巴西8月 ----- 巴西6月 ----- 巴西7月 ----- 巴西8月 ==== 巴西6月 ====== 巴西7月 ====== 巴西5月 ==== 巴西5月 400 250 国际数据 200 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market sentiment has pushed up the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and their futures prices are oscillating upwards [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price of Mn44 lump ore is 43 yuan/ton - degree; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot - 03 futures price spread of ferrosilicon is - 510 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese is - 350 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. The 2603 - 2605 spread of ferrosilicon is 28 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese is - 20 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The 2603 spread between silicomanganese and ferrosilicon is 140 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the 2605 spread is 188 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Futures Data - **Futures Contracts**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2603 is 5860 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan; the trading volume is 329,099, and the open interest is 245,565. The closing price of ferrosilicon 2605 is 5832 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan; the trading volume is 68,763, and the open interest is 60,892. The closing price of silicomanganese 2603 is 6000 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan; the trading volume is 317,087, and the open interest is 284,324. The closing price of silicomanganese 2605 is 6020 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan; the trading volume is 242,633, and the open interest is 253,950 [3]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On January 6, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was 5200 - 5350 yuan/ton; the price range of 75 ferrosilicon increased, with the range in different regions being 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon also increased by 10 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, both up 25 yuan/ton. An East - China steel mill set the price of silicomanganese at 5900 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), with a purchase volume of 2000 tons. Hegang set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon in January at 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from December, and the purchase volume was 3313 tons, an increase of 563 tons from December [3]. - **Policy News**: From July 1, 2026, restricted ferroalloy enterprises in Shaanxi will be charged an additional 0.1 yuan/kWh of electricity. Among the ferroalloy enterprises in Yulin, Shaanxi, 7 restricted - type ferrosilicon enterprises in Fugu and 2 in Shenmu are in operation. The current total daily output of ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 2535 tons, of which the daily output of restricted - type enterprises is 845 tons, accounting for 5.72% of the national total daily output [4]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 1, and that of silicomanganese is also 1 [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peak of freight rates for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) has emerged. For the EC2602 contract, it is advisable to wait and see, while for the EC2604 contract, consider shorting at high prices. The 2602 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 1750 - 1900 points in the short term, and the 2604 and 2610 contracts should be approached with a strategy of shorting at high prices [1][12][13]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: On January 8, 2026, the closing price of EC2602 was 1,779.1, down 3.62% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 43,604 and an open interest of 21,811, a decrease of 3,185. The closing price of EC2604 was 1,182.0, down 1.92%, with a trading volume of 22,083 and an open interest of 26,339, an increase of 2,409 [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1,795.83 points, up 3.1% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,250.12 points, down 3.9% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,690/TEU, up 10.2% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $2,188/FEU, up 9.8% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot European Line Freight Rates**: Different carriers' spot European line freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam varied, with prices for $/40'GP ranging from 2,610 to 3,510 and for $/20'GP from 1,533 to 2,255 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.74, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.98 [1]. 2. Market Influencing Factors - **News and Market Reaction**: After the market closed on Wednesday, MSK's fourth - week cabin opening continued to rise slightly, driving the market up on Thursday morning. Later, Yang Ming and Maersk adjusted their prices, causing the 2602 contract to decline mainly due to long - position liquidation after the peak, and the 2604 contract to decline mainly due to short - position increase [10]. - **Capacity Changes**: In the fourth week, the PA Alliance's FE4 route changed from normal operation to a blank sailing, and in the fifth week, Evergreen's CES route changed from a blank sailing to normal operation. The CES sailings in the sixth and seventh weeks were delayed by one week. The weekly average capacity in January was about 310,000 TEU, and in February, it was 287,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of 4 pending voyages) [10][11]. 3. Contract Valuation Analysis - **2602 Contract**: Its valuation depends on freight rate height, inflection point time, and decline rate. The 1900 - 2000 point range of the SCFIS index is estimated based on the static quotes of major carriers. After the freight rate peaks, the initial decline may not be significant, and the short - term valuation center is expected to oscillate between 1750 - 1900 points [12]. - **2604 Contract**: April is a traditional off - season for the European line. With the supply - demand situation further relaxing and the freight rate center moving down, the valuation of the 2604 contract is expected to be lower than that of the 2510 contract. It is recommended to short at high prices [13]. - **2610 Contract**: Due to geopolitical risks such as Iran's missile reconstruction and Israel's strike signals, the market's resumption of navigation expectations has declined. In the short term, focus on capital games, and in the long term, maintain a strategy of shorting at high prices [13]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [14].

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Iron Ore Morning Report on January 8, 2026, analyzing the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2605 [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable, and the outlook for ore prices is cautiously optimistic. Although the futures price of iron ore continues to run strongly at a high level due to warm market sentiment, the supply pressure remains and the demand improvement is limited, so the upward driving force needs to be tracked [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term trend is oscillating and slightly strong, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is oscillating and slightly weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and cautious optimism about ore prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The commodity sentiment is warm and the positive factors remain, so the iron ore futures price continues to run strongly at a high level. However, the supply - demand pattern has not improved substantially. Steel mills have resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased, but the improvement in their profitability is limited, and the off - season steel market can't bear the increased production, so the demand increase space is limited. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports has increased again and there is still room for growth in the future. Even if the shipments of miners and domestic ore production decline seasonally, the ore supply pressure remains. The subsequent changes should be monitored [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the soybean meal and soybean industries. Instead, it suggests a "wait - and - see" approach due to market sentiment [1] Core View - Due to market sentiment, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for both soybean meal and soybean markets. The price movements of related futures and spot markets are influenced by factors such as China's soybean purchases and the expected decline in Brazil's soybean exports to China [1][3] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4404 yuan/ton during the day session, up 140 yuan (+3.28%), and 4388 yuan at night, up 42 yuan (+0.97%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2811 yuan/ton during the day, up 48 yuan (+1.74%), and 2807 yuan at night, up 16 yuan (+0.57%); CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1066 cents/bushel, up 9.5 cents (+0.90%); CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 305.3 dollars/short - ton, up 6.2 dollars (+2.07%) [1] - **Spot Data**: In Shandong, the spot price range is 3100 - 3170 yuan/ton, up 10 - 30 yuan compared to the previous day; in different regions and time periods, the spot prices are related to different contract premiums. For example, in January, it is M2605 + 350/+380. In East China, the price range is 3090 - 3170 yuan/ton, up 10 - 25 yuan compared to the previous day [1] - **Industrial Data**: The daily trading volume of soybean meal (43%) is 16.35 million tons, and the weekly inventory is 105.05 million tons, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On January 7, 2026, CBOT soybean futures closed higher as the US Department of Agriculture confirmed that China continued to purchase US soybeans. Private exporters reported selling 33.6 million tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 season. It is estimated that China has purchased more than 1000 million tons of US soybeans. However, once China's purchase volume reaches 1200 million tons, the demand for US soybeans may slow down. The head of the Brazilian Grain Exporters Association (ANEC) said that the US soybean sales to China will suppress Brazil's soybean demand this year, and ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports to China will drop to 7700 million tons in 2026, a year - on - year decrease of 1000 million tons [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral situation in the main contract price fluctuations of the day session on the reporting day [3]