Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term decline**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term intensified volatility**: Palm oil, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil [1][2] - **Oscillatory adjustment**: Cotton [2] - **Under pressure operation**: Chinese jujube [3] - **Weak operation**: Live pigs [4] Core Views - Soybean meal: Affected by factors such as the expected relaxation of Brazilian imports and the weakening of crude oil, it shows a short - term decline; short - term and short - term bearish, focus on the subsequent trend of crude oil, the US soybean planting area at the end of the month, and the final content of US biodiesel [1][6][8] - Rapeseed meal: Follows the trend of soybean meal, with expected supply pressure from the arrival of Canadian rapeseed in April, and it is recommended to wait and see for long positions [1][9][11] - Palm oil: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, although the export data in March is good and the inventory reduction expectation is large, due to the possible recovery of production in April and the disturbance of the crude oil market, the market's long - buying behavior is cautious [1][13] - Cotton: Internationally, the US cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term; domestically, the basis of cotton spot is high, and the downstream order start - up is good, which supports the bottom of cotton prices. After the adjustment is stable, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [2][14][17] - Chinese jujube: Affected by the loose supply - demand pattern in the off - season, the inventory reduction is slow, and the rising temperature will further suppress consumption, lacking upward driving force [3][18][19] - Live pigs: The spot price continues to decline, and the loss of fat pigs and piglets is intensifying. Although it is expected to promote the de - stocking of sows, the current high supply base remains unchanged. The demand is in the off - season, and the futures market is under pressure in the short - term. Pay attention to the short - term second - fattening sentiment and the de - stocking efforts of large farms [4][20][22] Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price and Spread Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2932 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 0.98% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3332.86 yuan/ton, down 44.28 yuan or 1.31%. The soybean crushing profit and basis have changed to varying degrees [6] - **Industry Information**: Brazil's March soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts are both lower than last week; the expected US soybean planting area in 2026 is 86.1 million acres, higher than in 2025 and the USDA's February forecast [7] Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Spread Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2339 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan or 1.10% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2583.16 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or 1.52%. The rapeseed spot crushing profit and basis have also changed [9] - **Inventory Information**: As of March 25, 2026, the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions across the country was 367,000 tons, a decrease of 38,800 tons from last week [11] Palm Oil - **Export Data**: From March 1 - 25, 2026, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased significantly compared with the same period last month according to different institutions' data [13] Cotton - **Price and Spread Data**: The futures price of the main contract CF2605 closed at 15340 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the domestic and foreign spot prices and spreads have also changed. The spinning profit of textile enterprises decreased, and the start - up rate of the main spinning enterprises and weaving factories increased [14] - **Industry Information**: Brazil's 2025/26 cotton production is expected to decrease by 6.9% year - on - year; Pakistan's February 2026 cotton yarn export volume increased; India's 2026/27 cotton planting area and production are expected to be flat year - on - year. In China, the new trade quota has been implemented, and the expected production in 26/27 has decreased. The import volume of cotton and cotton yarn from January to February increased year - on - year, and the downstream inventory is expected to decrease slightly. The demand side is strong, and the retail and export data of clothing and textiles are good [15][16] Chinese Jujube - **Price and Spread Data**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2605 closed at 8890 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day; the spot prices of various regions remained stable. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreased by 160 tons from last week [18] - **Market Situation**: The downstream market trading is light, the inventory reduction is slow, and the market is in the off - season. Although the trading sentiment on the futures market is strong due to external factors, the upward space is limited [19] Live Pigs - **Price and Spread Data**: The futures price of the main contract 1h2605 closed at 9980 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 0.65% from the previous day; the national average slaughter price was 9490 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan or 1.15%. The inventory and slaughter volume of sample enterprises, as well as the profit and demand - related data, have also changed [20] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply side is under pressure, the second - fattening sentiment is weak, the number of piglets born is increasing, and the de - stocking of sows is slow but may accelerate. The demand side is in the off - season, the slaughter enterprise's procurement is mainly based on demand, and the inventory of frozen products is high [21][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Corn**: The corn market showed a trend of falling first and then rising on Tuesday. The price of Northeast spot remained stable except for a slight decline in the price of North Port at the beginning of the week. The price of North China corn continued to rise, but the pace of increase slowed down. The price of the corn market in the sales area remained stable. The overall supply - demand situation of the market remained unchanged compared with the previous period. The corn main 2605 contract fell below the 2400 - yuan integer mark. After the profitable long positions in the corn market left, it was recommended to continue to pay attention to the impact of policy trends on the grain market. The view on corn is "oscillation" [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans closed higher on Tuesday, supported by the strengthening of crude oil prices. The US government planned to release the final bio - fuel blending quota before the end of March, which increased the market's expectation of an increase in the demand for raw materials such as soybean oil. Brazil's Anec said that Brazil planned to export 16.32 million tons of soybeans in March, slightly lower than the previous estimate. The domestic protein meal was strong. The view on soybean meal is "rising" [1]. - **Fats and Oils**: BMD palm oil fell on Tuesday, ending a four - day winning streak. The market was suppressed by the decline in soybean oil futures and the uncertainty of several key policies in Indonesia. The shipping data showed that the export of palm oil in Malaysia from March 1 - 15 increased by 43.5% - 56.9% month - on - month. Domestic fats and oils fell first and then rose. The view on fats and oils is "rising" [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures corrected on Tuesday, and the main 2605 contract closed down 1.66%. The spot price of eggs remained stable in most areas. The main contract fell after rising to the upper limit of the range, and it was recommended to maintain the idea of range oscillation and pay attention to supply and market sentiment changes. The view on eggs is "oscillation" [2]. - **Pigs**: The pig futures continued to fall on Tuesday, and the main 2605 contract closed down 1.06%. The spot price of pigs continued to decline. The breeding side had a strong willingness to sell, but a weak willingness to cut prices. The current demand was in the off - season, and the terminal demand was still weak. The pig price was likely to continue the weak pattern before the supply pressure was effectively relieved. The view on pigs is "oscillation and weakening" [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Military and Geopolitical Information**: Israel's military operations against Iran will last at least three more weeks, and there are still thousands of targets to be attacked. The US Pentagon is considering sending more warships to the Middle East to escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Treasury issued a 30 - day license allowing countries to buy Russian oil and oil products stranded at sea [3]. - **Economic Data**: At the end of February, the balance of broad money (M2) was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9% [3]. - **Regulatory Information**: In March, the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized strengthening the bottom - line thinking and monitoring and supervision of the linkage between domestic and foreign, futures and spot markets in 2026 [3]. - **Commodity Market Information**: The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports in China increased by 696,600 tons compared with the previous period, and the daily port clearance volume increased by 68,200 tons. The price increase of iron ore at the end of February was mainly due to emotional and technical repairs, lacking fundamental support. The international fertilizer supply chain was affected by the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, and the price of the urea futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose by more than 20% compared with before the attack. Iraq was ready to resume oil exports through the Ceyhan pipeline, but the Kurdish region refused to resume exports. Due to the near - stagnation of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, Bahrain Aluminium started a phased shutdown. The methanol inventory in East China ports decreased by 72,000 tons compared with March 5 [3][4]. - **Agricultural Information**: The relevant national departments decided to organize the early release of the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve to meet the needs of agricultural production during the spring plowing period [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report presents the 5 - 9 spreads of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but does not provide specific data analysis [7][8][10][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but does not provide specific data analysis [14][16][20][22]. Research Team Introduction - The agricultural product research team of Everbright Futures includes Wang Na, the director of agricultural product research, Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst, and Kong Hailan, a researcher in the egg and pig industries. They have rich experience and many honors in the field of futures research [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern, and the demand outlook for US soybeans is unclear, causing the US soybean futures price to decline. The domestic soybean meal price is supported by the cost but restricted by weak demand. In the first quarter, the domestic soybean import volume decreases quarterly, and the supply pressure will ease. The near - term market needs to focus on the loading rhythm of US and Brazilian soybeans and the post - festival auction of imported soybeans. In the long - term, due to the bumper harvest of South American soybeans, the domestic price is expected to decline following the imported cost [2]. - The US Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit a biofuel blending quota proposal for 2026 to the White House, which is expected to boost soybean oil demand. The production of Malaysian palm oil in February is estimated to decrease by 16.24%, and the export volume is expected to decline. Although the export slows down in February, due to seasonal production cuts, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in February is expected to continue to decline. The spill - over effect of the sharp rise in crude oil still exists, but the sentiment brought by recent geopolitical conflicts has cooled down, and the fundamentals of the oil and fat market lack the driving force for active upward movement. It is expected that the oil and fat market will fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8370, 9002, 9486, 2829, 2363, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 20, 8, 22, - 7, - 17, and 26, with percentage changes of 0.24%, 0.09%, - 3.15%, - 0.25%, - 0.71%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current values of spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09, M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 are 18, 32, - 178, - 682, 857, 175, - 58, 46, 587, 1.25, 2.82, and 5366 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4070 (ringgit/ton), 1166 (cents/bushel), 63.47 (cents/pound), and 309 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were 19.0, - 5.3, 0.6, and - 5.8, with percentage changes of 0.47%, - 0.45%, 0.89%, and - 1.84% respectively [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil, Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal, Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal, Linyi and Anyang peanuts are 8650, 8630, 9000, 9000, 10110, 9860, 2990, 3050, 2510, 2480, 7200, 7300 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis values of the above - mentioned products are 280, 260, - 70, - 70, 621, 371, 147, 207, 192, 162, - 696, - 596 respectively. The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal are - 170, 1470, 580 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profit - The current values of import and crushing profit for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 238, - 427, - 17, - 325, 246, 233 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The current values of warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 26,255, 0, 625, 38,829, 1,411, 900 respectively, with corresponding previous values [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicates that last week's rainfall improved the growth conditions of Argentine soybeans and corn. The exchange expects the 2025/26 soybean production to be 48.5 million tons. Reuters' analysts predict that the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production will be 48.11 million tons, with an estimated range of 47 - 49.5 million tons [2]. - AgRural lowers the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production from 181 million tons to 178 million tons. As of February 28, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is 41.7%, slower than 48.4% in the same period last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere finishes the sugar - crushing season in February. The downward space of domestic sugar prices is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [3][4]. - For cotton, in the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuates widely at a high level. In the long - term, due to the reduction of planting area and positive macro - expectations, cotton prices have room to rise. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [6][9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of 2024/25. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [12][13]. - For oils, in the short - term, oil prices have fallen from high levels. In the long - term, the bottom of oil prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then try to go long [15][19]. - For eggs, the spot price is about to realize seasonal price increases, which will drive the futures price down. The near - term contracts may fluctuate weakly, and the far - end contracts may continue to correct their valuations, maintaining a short - selling idea [20][21]. - For pigs, the current supply is large, and the spot and near - term expectations are pessimistic. The near - term contracts may still be under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rebounds. The long - term contracts may have support after following the decline [23][24]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the May contract was 5210 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 0.83% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5260 - 5340 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: StoneX expects a global sugar surplus of 2.9 million tons in the 2025/26 season. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production reached 19.305 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.8%. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's total sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In December, China produced 2.63 million tons of sugar, and the cumulative production in the 2025/26 season was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 720,000 tons. The cumulative sales volume was 1.57 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 31.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 25.56 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 2.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 16,002 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: As of the week of January 30, the spinning mill operating rate was 64.2%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week. From January 15 to January 22, the US current - year cotton export sales were 51,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.7722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 194,900 tons. Among them, the export to China was 8800 tons that week, and the cumulative export to China was 97,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66,000 tons. The January forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points from the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points from the previous year [6]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fell slightly. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2623 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.15% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2247 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was 2460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [11]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: From January 15 to January 22, the US exported 820,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export was 33.85 million tons. Among them, the export to China was 230,000 tons that week, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 9.65 million tons. From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.82 million tons, an increase of 350,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 6.71 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons from the previous week. The sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous year [12]. Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the oils futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8140 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 9138 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 0.48% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed oil contract was 9243 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 0.3% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil was 8670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,040 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: From January 23 to January 30, the domestic sample data showed that the inventory of the three major oils decreased slightly by 60,000 tons to 1.89 million tons. The January forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons from the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons from the previous year. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons from November [16][18]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, most egg prices in China declined, and a few remained stable. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.07 yuan to 3.56 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.3 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.24 yuan to 3 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the market digestion was gentle, and the terminal caution increased. It is expected that most egg prices in China may decline in the short - term, and a few areas may remain stable [20]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, domestic pig prices generally declined with a large margin. The average price in Henan dropped 0.32 yuan to 12.22 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped 0.09 yuan to 11.77 yuan/kg. The trading volume of the breeding side was limited, most of them did not complete the daily slaughter plan, and the price - cutting sentiment was strong. In addition, the incremental space of the downstream slaughter side was limited. It is expected that pig prices may continue to decline today [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Supported by favorable factors, the price of the three major oils and fats remained stable in the previous trading session [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,944 yuan/ton, a change of +112 yuan or +1.27%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,084 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan or +0.50%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,002 yuan/ton, a change of +55 yuan or +0.61% [2] - Spot: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,900 yuan/ton, a change of +90 yuan or +1.02%, with a spot basis of P05 - 44 yuan, a change of -22 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,440 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton or +0.60%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 356 yuan, a change of +10 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,840 yuan/ton, a change of +60 yuan or +0.61%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 838 yuan, a change of +5 yuan [2] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Argentina soybean oil: The C&F price of the February shipment was 1,209 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of the April shipment was 1,141 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars/ton [3] - Imported rapeseed oil: The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil for the February shipment was 1,030 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price for the April shipment was 1,010 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - Canadian rapeseed: The C&F price of the March shipment was 528 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of the May shipment was 537 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] - Soybean: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans for the February shipment was 477 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans for the February shipment was 472 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans for the February shipment was 450 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton [3] - Imported soybean premium: The premium for the February shipment from the Mexican Gulf was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; the premium for the February shipment from the US West Coast was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged; the premium for the February shipment from Brazilian ports was 160 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel [3] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - From January 1 - 20, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 16.49% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08%, and the output decreased by 16.06% [4] - The Trump administration plans to finalize the US biofuel blending quota for 2026 in early March, expected to maintain at a high level and abandon punitive import measures, significantly boosting the demand for US soybean oil [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean meal closed slightly higher, while rapeseed meal closed lower in a volatile manner. Brazil's soybean harvest rate has increased, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest, and institutions are raising their production forecasts. However, good domestic crushing data in the US provides some support for soybean prices. In China, state - reserve auctions have been successful, and high domestic soybean meal inventories and the expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest will continue to pressure prices. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may increase rapeseed imports and put short - term pressure on domestic rapeseed prices [3]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was relatively strong. Malaysia's palm oil exports in January were strong with a decline in production, and a tariff cut is expected to improve future exports, supporting palm oil futures prices. There is positive news for US soybean oil demand due to biofuel policy expectations. However, the expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply due to the China - Canada economic and trade agreement has weakened rapeseed oil prices recently, also limiting the short - term prices of soybean and palm oils [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7996, 8648, and 8902 respectively, with changes of - 20, - 26, and - 161, and percentage changes of - 0.25%, - 0.30%, and - 3.15%. The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut were 2727, 2327, and 8844, with changes of 0, - 133, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.00%, - 5.41%, and 0.29% [2]. - Spreads: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1 are - 364, 62, and - 746 respectively, with previous values of - 390, - 26, and - 627 [2]. - Ratios - Spreads: The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 are - 238, 2394, 492, 1.21, 2.72, and 4978 respectively, with previous values of - 179, 2419, 457, 1.19, 2.73, and 4962 [2]. International Futures Market - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4027 (ringgit/ton), 1056.25 (cents/bu), 52.51 (cents/lb), and 289.90 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 77.0, 3.8, - 0.4, and 0.7, and percentage changes of 1.95%, 0.36%, - 0.76%, and 0.24% [2]. Domestic Spot Market - Prices: The current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8570 and 8620 respectively, with a percentage change of 0.47%. The prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 8800, with a percentage change of 1.15%. The prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9810 and 9880, with percentage changes of 0.31% and 0.51% [2]. - Basis: The current spot basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 538, 52, and 862 respectively. The basis of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut are 344, 101, and - 756 respectively [2]. - Spreads: The current spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal are - 150, 1210, and 650 respectively [2]. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 237, - 247, - 54, - 201, 321, and 414 respectively, with previous values of - 342, - 264, - 71, - 217, 270, and 387 [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut are 26,985, 1,148, 1,935, 32,440, 84, and 0 respectively, with previous values of 27,485, 1,148, 1,942, 32,440, 84, and 0 [2]. Industry Information - Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.64% (AmSpec data) and 11.4% (ITS data) compared to the same period last month [3]. - As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the US shipped 611,983 tons of soybeans to China, accounting for 45.78% of the total export inspection volume of the week, down from 58.91% the previous week [3]. - As of January 17, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 2.3%, up from 0.6% last week, compared to 1.2% last year and a five - year average of 3.2% [3]. - The NOPA data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest monthly record [3]. - Canada and China have reached a preliminary trade agreement to reduce tariff barriers in the electric vehicle and rapeseed sectors [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar extraction in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. However, due to the recent sharp increase, it needs time to adjust. It is recommended to wait for a correction before going long [9] - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of 2024/2025. China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices but is bearish for domestic meal prices. The possible reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a significant negative factor. Protein meal prices have fallen to previous lows, and short - term volatility will increase [12] - For oils, the current fundamentals of palm oil are weak due to high production, low exports, and high inventories in major producing areas, and high domestic inventories. But in the long - term, with the expected reduction of production in Malaysia, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026, the outlook is optimistic. It is advisable to wait and see for now [18] - For eggs, due to insufficient inventory accumulation under previous pessimistic sentiment, the spot price increase during the pre - holiday stocking period exceeded expectations, driving the short - term contract to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the spot price is about to reach its seasonal peak. The short - term contract may fluctuate with limited upside and downside. The long - term contract has positive expectations but with uncertain implementation paths [21] - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated consumption, and the large price difference between fat and standard pigs has led to hoarding. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has risen significantly, driving the futures price to rebound rationally. In the short - term, the structural contradiction remains unresolved, and the spot price has limited downward momentum, supporting the short - term contract to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, the large supply base and the risk of inventory accumulation may still put pressure on prices [24] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract was 5,188 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton or 1.16% from the previous trading day. The price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was quoted at 5,290 - 5,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%. As of December, India's sugar production reached 1.5909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,525 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,856 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6] - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but an 8.6 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [6] Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day [10] - **Industry Data**: In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The supply from Brazil was 82.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The supply from the US was 16.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% [11] Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the oils futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8,032 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8,748 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 1.16% from the previous trading day [14] - **Industry Data**: As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons [15][17] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, most egg prices in China were stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.65 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.4 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 3.4 yuan/jin. The price in Dongguan rose 0.06 yuan to 3.51 yuan/jin [20] - **Industry Outlook**: The supply is basically normal, the downstream sales speed is acceptable, and most traders' confidence in the future market has slightly recovered. The inventory at each link has slightly increased, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is stable. It is expected that most egg prices in China will be stable today, with a few rising or falling [20] Pigs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, domestic pig prices generally fell, with some areas remaining stable. The average price in Henan dropped 0.18 yuan to 13.35 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained at 13.02 yuan/kg [23] - **Industry Outlook**: Currently, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is high, but the downstream demand support is insufficient, and the market sales are poor. Farmers may have an intention to reduce prices, and pig prices are expected to decline today [23]

Report Information - Report Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The trends of the three major oils are diverging. Due to the easing of China - Canada trade relations, the supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the far - month is expected to increase, causing the prices of Zhengzhou rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal to fall. The expected release of the US biofuel blending quota has boosted the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. For palm oil, attention should be paid to the upcoming export data for the first 20 days of January. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2605: The previous settlement price was 8618, the opening price was 8660, the highest price was 8684, the lowest price was 8606, the closing price was 8648, with a rise of 30 and a rise rate of 0.35%. The trading volume was 358548, and the open interest was 413122, a decrease of 1951 [7] - P2609: The previous settlement price was 8608, the opening price was 8632, the highest price was 8662, the lowest price was 8592, the closing price was 8622, with a rise of 14 and a rise rate of 0.16%. The trading volume was 19126, and the open interest was 66014, a decrease of 40 [7] - Y2605: The previous settlement price was 7978, the opening price was 8014, the highest price was 8024, the lowest price was 7964, the closing price was 7996, with a rise of 18 and a rise rate of 0.23%. The trading volume was 209449, and the open interest was 716725, an increase of 584 [7] - Y2609: The previous settlement price was 7852, the opening price was 7866, the highest price was 7902, the lowest price was 7842, the closing price was 7876, with a rise of 24 and a rise rate of 0.31%. The trading volume was 22233, and the open interest was 107080, an increase of 3032 [7] - OI605: The previous settlement price was 9038, the opening price was 8861, the highest price was 8978, the lowest price was 8860, the closing price was 8902, with a fall of 136 and a fall rate of 1.50%. The trading volume was 367634, and the open interest was 253596, a decrease of 16032 [7] - OI609: The previous settlement price was 9004, the opening price was 8833, the highest price was 8947, the lowest price was 8827, the closing price was 8923, with a fall of 81 and a fall rate of 0.90%. The trading volume was 13371, and the open interest was 12649, an increase of 2915 [7] - **Spot Quotations**: - East China rapeseed oil traders' quotations: For East China March - transferred triple - pressed rapeseed oil, it is 05 + 720. For genetically - modified first - grade rapeseed oil in the East China spot market, it is 05 + 1300, and triple - pressed rapeseed oil is 05 + 650 from March to May in East China, 05 + 600 from April to May in East China [7] - East China market first - grade soybean oil basis price: For first - grade soybean oil, the spot price is Y05 + 520; from February to March it is Y2605+480; from February to May it is Y2605+400; from March to May it is Y2605+360; from April to May it is Y2605+300; from May to July it is Y2605+240; from June to September it is Y2605+190; from July to September it is Y2605+200. For third - grade soybean oil, it is 05 + 450, and for degummed soybean oil, it is 05 + 350 [7] - Dongguan traders' palm oil quotations: For 18 - degree palm oil from Guangzhou Yihai, it is 05 + 170; for 24 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 + 0; for national - standard 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, it is 05 + 50; for 52 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 - 200; for 33 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan, it is 05 + 20 [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the purchase of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the release of the US biofuel blending quota, and the January 1 - 20 palm oil export data. Adopt the arbitrage strategy of going long on soybean oil and palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [8] 3.2 Industry News - From January 1 - 15, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 18.42% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit area decreasing by 18.09% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.03% month - on - month. The palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15 was 435,882 tons, the same as that from December 1 - 15. The export volume to China was 17,000 tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to 58,000 tons in the same period last month [10][11] 3.3 Data Overview - **Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast**: Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 179.28 million tons, 520,000 tons higher than the November forecast. If the prediction comes true, it will increase by 4.3% year - on - year and set a new record. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.5% year - on - year to 48.33 million hectares, and the average yield per unit area will be 3,728 kg per hectare, a 2.8% increase compared to the 2024/25 season [16] - **Domestic Palm Oil Inventory**: As of the end of the third week of 2026, the total domestic palm oil inventory was 677,600 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons compared to last week; the contract volume was 39,200 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons compared to last week. The inventory of 24 - degree and below palm oil was 653,800 tons, an increase of 16,400 tons compared to last week, and the high - grade palm oil inventory was 23,800 tons, the same as last week [16]

1. Report Recommendation - The report recommends short - term waiting and observing in the trading strategy, suggesting waiting for inventory digestion [11][13] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental situation of the oil market is weak, with high production and low exports in major palm oil - producing areas leading to high inventories, and domestic inventories of three major oils also at a relatively high level. However, looking forward, there are optimistic expectations such as the downward adjustment of Malaysia's production forecast, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in U.S. biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026 [11] - Oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [12] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, and Indonesia has cancelled the B50 plan. In January, the estimated consumption of U.S. soybean oil decreased compared to December, while India's vegetable oil imports in December increased. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December increased, production decreased, and exports increased. Malaysia's 2026 palm oil production is expected to be lower than in 2025, and its production in January 2026 decreased. As of January 9, domestic inventories of three major oils decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [11] - **Viewpoint Summary**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but there are optimistic long - term expectations, so short - term waiting and observing are recommended [11] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is neutral to low, the biodiesel spread and inventory are neutral, the import profit is negative, the high production and inventory in major producing countries are negative, and other factors are neutral. Oil prices may be near the bottom [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies recommend waiting and observing [13] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - The document presents multiple charts showing the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil contracts, and the monthly spread of various oil contracts from 2022 - 2026 [22][23][26][28][30] 3.3. Supply Side - The document shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil from 2021 - 2025, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans from 2022 - 2026, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil from 2021 - 2025 [34][36][37][38] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - The document presents charts of the total inventory of three major domestic oils from 2022 - 2026, India's imported vegetable oil inventory from 2021 - 2025, the near - month import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil from 2022 - 2026, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil plants from 2022 - 2026, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil from 2022 - 2026, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 [42][44][46][48][50] 3.5. Cost Side - The document shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil from 2022 - 2026, as well as the near - month shipping price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed from 2022 - 2026 [53][56] 3.6. Demand Side - The document presents charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil from 2022 - 2026, and the spread between palm oil and diesel, and soybean oil and heating oil from 2022 - 2026 [61][64]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending mandate in early March, maintaining previous target levels while eliminating punitive measures on imported renewable fuels and their feedstocks [2] Group 1: Biofuel Industry - The proposed plan aims to create a compromise between biofuel producers and the oil industry by retaining the option to increase biofuel blending ratios in response to demands from the agriculture and biofuel sectors [2] - The elimination of restrictions on imported fuels is intended to prevent market disruptions and rising energy costs [2] Group 2: Regulatory Process - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is currently in the public comment phase regarding the new rules, with the goal of finalizing them by the first quarter of 2026 [2]