姓名：安冉 从业资格号：F3049294 交易咨询证号：Z0017020 姓名：王海聪 从业资格号：F03101206 交易咨询证号：Z0022465 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号：证监许可[2012]112 碳酸锂产业链概览-研究框架 碳酸锂 锂辉石 锂云母 盐湖卤水 氢氧化锂 三元材料 磷酸铁锂 钴酸锂 锰酸锂 六氟磷酸锂 动力电池 储能电池 新能源汽车 玻璃陶瓷等 3C数码 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 碳酸锂综述 01 多空矛盾不强，震荡运行为主 碳酸锂周度报告 2025年9月28日 碳酸锂产业链价格 02 03 碳酸锂上游供给环境 04 碳酸锂下游消费环境 05 碳酸锂库存结构 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 目 录 Part 01 碳酸锂综述 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 碳酸锂综述 碳酸锂综述——平衡表 | | 要素 | | | | ★ 碳酸锂周度综述 ★ | | 驱动方向 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 单位:吨 总产量 | 一道 20363 | न्त में मी 20516 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The imbalance between supply and demand in the lithium carbonate market is prominent, with strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt production and reduce output, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10] - It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the cost of 6% concentrate CIF will decrease on a daily basis, falling below the historical average level. The supply - demand pattern will shift to demand - led, and lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 71,780 - 73,980 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 75,297 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.31%, resulting in a loss of 2,519 yuan/ton in production. The cost of purchased lepidolite is 78,729 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.72%, resulting in a loss of 7,944 yuan/ton in production. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8] - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.81%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.09% [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of smelters is 34,456 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.85%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 59,495 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.09%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories are 43,580 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory is 137,531 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%, higher than the historical average [8] - **Supply Expectation**: In August 2025, the output of lithium carbonate was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. In August 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,847 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74% [8] Other Indicators - **Basis**: On September 24, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,850 yuan/ton, the basis of the 11 - contract was 970 yuan/ton, and the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, showing a positive signal [8] - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a negative signal [8] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position increased, showing a negative signal [8] 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price and Basis**: The futures closing price showed a downward trend, and the basis increased significantly. For example, the futures closing price decreased by 0.98% - 1.06%, and the basis increased by 145.10% - 458.82% [14] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 39,749, an increase of 0.76% [14] - **Upstream Prices**: The price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.47% to 856 US dollars/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 1.32% to 1,875 yuan/ton. The prices of other upstream products such as anhydrous iron phosphate remained unchanged [14] - **Positive Material and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of some ternary precursors and ternary materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate and lithium - ion batteries remained unchanged [14] 3.3 Supply - Related Data Lithium Ore - **Price and Output**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the output of domestic spodumene mines and lepidolite has shown different trends over the years [23] - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated [23] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has been fluctuating, with a shortfall in most months [26] Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate have changed over time, with different changes in production from different raw materials such as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lake [29] - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate has changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends [29] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has been fluctuating, with both surpluses and shortages [36] Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide have changed, and the production from different sources such as smelting and causticization has also shown different trends [39] - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [39] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has been fluctuating, with surpluses in most months [41] 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchasing spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and recycling materials for lithium carbonate production have changed over time. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate is currently in a loss state [44][46] - The profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, and the profit of causticizing lithium carbonate into lithium hydroxide have also changed [46][49] 3.5 Inventory - The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have changed, with different trends in inventory at the smelter end, downstream end, and other ends [51] 3.6 Demand - Related Data Lithium Battery - **Price and Output**: The price of lithium batteries has changed, and the monthly output of power batteries and energy - storage batteries has also shown different trends [55] - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [55] Ternary Precursor - **Price and Production**: The price of ternary precursors has changed, and the monthly production and capacity utilization rate have also shown different trends [61] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has been fluctuating, with both surpluses and shortages [64] Ternary Material - **Price and Production**: The price of ternary materials has changed, and the weekly production and inventory have also shown different trends [67][70] Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Production**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium has changed, and the monthly production, export volume, and inventory have also shown different trends [74][77] New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed over the years [82][83] - **Inventory and Zero - Batch Ratio**: The monthly inventory index and zero - batch ratio of new energy vehicle dealers have also changed [86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with over - supply leading to a downward trend that is difficult to reverse. The main logic is capacity mismatch, resulting in strong supply and weak demand. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decline in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of power battery manufacturers to take delivery [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,527 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.13%, with a production loss of 3,096 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 78,845 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.94%, with a production loss of 8,402 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8] - **Basis**: On September 19, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 460 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount [8] - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 34,456 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.85%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 59,495 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.09%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 137,531 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70%, higher than the historical average [8] - **Market Chart**: The MA20 of the market chart was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [8] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main players decreased, showing a bearish trend [8] - **Expectation**: In August 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's import will be 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.71%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 72,740 - 75,180 [8] 3.2 Market Overview - **Lithium Ore**: The price of 6% lithium spodumene was 859 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 0.12%. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2 - 2.5%) was 1,880 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.58% [14] - **Lithium Salt**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.07%. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.07% [14] - **Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Batteries**: The prices of most positive electrode materials and lithium batteries showed small fluctuations, with some products remaining unchanged [14] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines has different trends in different periods [23] - **Import and Export**: The import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the export volume has also changed to a certain extent. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months [26] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) have different changes [29] - **Import and Export**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries has changed, and the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also shows different results in different months [35] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) have changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends in different years [38] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different situations in different months [40] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica**: The production cost and profit of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate have changed, and the processing cost is composed of multiple parts [43] - **Import and Other Profits**: The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate, and the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and exporting have all changed [43][45][48] 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has different trends [50] - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [50] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium batteries has shown small fluctuations, and the monthly production, shipment volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have different trends [54] - **Inventory and Bidding**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the EPC bidding situation of energy storage systems have changed [56] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary precursors has changed, and the cost and profit of different types of ternary precursors have different trends [59] - **Capacity Utilization and Supply - Demand Balance**: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has changed, and the supply - demand balance also shows different situations in different months [59][62] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials has changed, and the cost - profit trend of different types of ternary materials has different characteristics [64] - **Production and Inventory**: The production and weekly inventory of ternary materials have changed [64][66] 3.11 Demand - Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of phosphorus iron/phosphorus iron lithium has changed, and the cost - profit situation of phosphorus iron lithium has different trends [68] - **Production and Inventory**: The production and weekly inventory of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium have changed [68][71] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have different trends, and the sales penetration rate has also changed [76] - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning and inventory indexes of dealers have changed [80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [8][11]. - The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,840 - 74,520 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake sources and insufficient willingness to purchase in the power battery sector [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increased by 0.72% week - on - week to 95,442 tons, while the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises decreased by 0.65% week - on - week to 17,529 tons. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,067 yuan/ton, a 0.40% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 3,280 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 77,345 yuan/ton, a 1.21% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 7,539 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On September 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 330 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 36,213 tons, a 8.26% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 58,279 tons, a 5.56% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 44,020 tons, a 3.06% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory was 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [8]. - **Expectations**: In August 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a 1.75% month - on - month increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a 14.71% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have shown different degrees of increase or remained stable compared to the previous values [14]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate production, production costs, and production volumes have changed to varying degrees. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% month - on - month to 264,720 tons [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production, export volume, and inventory of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials have also changed. For example, the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increased by 0.72% week - on - week to 95,442 tons [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time, and the production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has changed year - by - year [24]. - **Import and Self - sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [24]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has changed over the years [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand of domestic lithium ore have been in a state of imbalance in different months from 2024 to 2025, with demand often exceeding production and import, resulting in a negative balance in many months [26]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production, operating rate, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time [29]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed, and the recycling volume of waste lithium batteries has also been presented [29][33]. 3.6 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been unbalanced in different months from 2024 to 2025. There were shortages in some months and surpluses in others [36]. 3.7 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, and production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have changed over time. The export volume of lithium hydroxide has also been presented [39]. 3.8 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand of lithium hydroxide have been unbalanced in different months from 2024 to 2025, with both shortages and surpluses occurring [42]. 3.9 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate have changed over time. The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the carbonation profit of lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate, and other related profits have also been presented [45][47][50]. 3.10 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including weekly and monthly inventory by source (downstream, smelter), has changed over time [52]. 3.11 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price of batteries, monthly production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time [56]. - **Inventory and Tender**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the tender volume of energy storage projects have also been presented [58]. 3.12 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, and production of ternary precursors have changed over time [61]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand of ternary precursors have been unbalanced in different months from 2024 to 2025, with both shortages and surpluses occurring [64]. 3.13 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, capacity, and production of ternary materials have changed over time. The import and export volume and inventory of ternary materials have also been presented [67][69]. 3.14 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time. The export volume and inventory of iron phosphate lithium have also been presented [71][74]. 3.15 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles have also been presented [79][83].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% month-on-month in August, while the year-on-year increase was 2.6% [2][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 92%, with an 8% chance for a 50 basis point cut [3] Group 2: Oracle Corporation - Oracle's stock surged over 40%, marking its largest intraday gain since 1992 [4] - Oracle projected a 77% increase in cloud infrastructure sales to $18 billion for the fiscal year 2026, exceeding market expectations [7] - Several investment banks raised their price targets for Oracle, with Wolfe Research increasing it from $300 to $400, indicating a 67% upside potential [7] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a significant drop, with the main contract falling over 7% before slightly recovering, closing at 70,720 yuan/ton, down 4.87% [9] - The decline in lithium prices is attributed to market expectations of increased supply following news of the resumption of production at the Jiangxia lithium mine [9][10] - The Jiangxia lithium mine, which accounts for approximately 12.5% of China's total lithium production, is expected to resume operations by November [10][11] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Inventory - Despite the recent price drop, demand for lithium remains strong, particularly for energy storage and power battery orders, which are expected to continue growing until November [12] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased, indicating a high willingness to replenish stock among downstream enterprises [13] - The market is currently in a sensitive phase, balancing between supply recovery and demand stability, suggesting a cautious approach for investors [13]

Core Viewpoint - The traditional peak season for lithium carbonate has arrived, leading to improved demand, while attention should be paid to the supply side in the future [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On September 4, the main contract for lithium carbonate in the domestic futures market rebounded, closing up 1.05% at 73,420 yuan/ton [1] - The contract had previously dropped to a low of 71,120 yuan/ton, representing a decline of approximately 20% from the high of 90,100 yuan/ton two weeks prior [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current fundamentals for lithium carbonate are clear, with major resource companies halting production, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance [1] - This tightening is providing price support at the bottom, and any further production cuts in the future will enhance this support [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 1, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract dropped 2.73% to 75,560 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton to 78,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped by 1,300 yuan/ton to 76,050 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 250 yuan/ton to 76,650 yuan/ton. The warrant inventory increased by 1,310 tons to 31,197 tons [3]. - According to the semi - annual report of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. on August 29, the overall progress of its 40,000 - ton/year lithium salt project reached 71%. The adsorption lithium extraction device completed the intermediate handover acceptance on June 3. It is expected that the project will start trial production by the end of September, and the company will achieve a production scale of 80,000 tons/year of lithium salt [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production continued to slow down with a narrowing decline. The weekly output decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 70 tons to 12,249 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 150 tons to 2,500 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 37 tons to 2,515 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 9 tons to 1,766 tons. In terms of demand, according to the production scheduling data of market consulting agencies, the production scheduling of cathode materials in September increased by 5 - 6% month - on - month. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, decreasing by 407 tons to 141,136 tons. The downstream inventory increased by 1,293 tons to 52,800 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 45,000 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 3,510 tons to 43,336 tons. The downstream and intermediate links showed signs of replenishing inventory, while the upstream continued to destock [3]. - Last week, news - related factors led to a rapid decline in prices, digesting part of the increase caused by the shutdown of Jianxiawo. The market may re - price the expectations regarding mining permits. Currently, considering the potential disturbing factors on the supply side, the relatively firm price of lithium ore, and the booming demand, the downside space may be limited, and the price may show wide - range fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to September 30, when Jiangxi lithium ore projects need to complete report compilation and submission. By then, there may be a conclusion regarding the mining permit issues of other projects [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract decreased from 77,180 yuan/ton on August 29 to 75,560 yuan/ton on September 1, a decrease of 1,620 yuan/ton. The closing price of the continuous contract dropped from 77,000 yuan/ton to 75,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,460 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 4 US dollars/ton to 898 US dollars/ton. The prices of lepidolite (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (Li₂O: 6% - 7%, Li₂O: 7% - 8%) decreased to varying degrees [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all decreased, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 56,200 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,300 yuan/ton. The price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to - 1,700 yuan/ton. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 288 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors 523 (polycrystalline/power type), 523 (single - crystal/consumer type), 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type), and 811 (polycrystalline/power type) increased to varying degrees. The prices of ternary materials 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type), 523 (single - crystal/power type), and cobaltous acid lithium decreased, while the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) and 811 (power type) remained unchanged. The prices of lithium iron phosphate (power type), lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage), and lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) decreased, while the prices of lithium manganate (power type) and lithium manganate (capacity type) remained unchanged [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased by 0.01 yuan/piece, the price of cobaltous acid lithium cells increased by 0.2 yuan/Ah, and the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 0.001 yuan/Wh. The prices of other cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Includes charts of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF) and lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%) and lithiophilite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) prices, showing price trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Covers charts of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, presenting price trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [11][13][14]. - **Price Spreads**: Comprises charts of price spreads such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and others, showing price spread trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [17][18][19]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Includes charts of ternary precursor, ternary material, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobaltous acid lithium prices, demonstrating price trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [24][26][28]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Covers charts of 523 square ternary cell, square lithium iron phosphate cell, cobaltous acid lithium cell, and square lithium iron phosphate battery prices, showing price trends from January 2024 to August 2025 [30][33]. - **Inventory**: Includes charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and other - link inventory, showing inventory trends from January to August 2025 [37][39]. - **Production Cost**: Features a chart of production costs, including the cash production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate, showing profit trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [41][43].

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of carbonate lithium was affected by mine shutdowns and permit reviews, while overseas imports showed mixed trends. The cost of some manufacturers was under pressure, and the demand showed an upward trend in August. The inventory was in a destocking state. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely, and cautious trading is recommended [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Last week, the output of carbonate lithium increased by 345 tons to 20,438 tons, and the output in July increased by 5.8% to 85,690 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine was confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and manufacturers in Yichun and Qinghai received notices for mine - right transfer reviews. The cost - reduction space of Australian mines is limited, and most have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. In July 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 751,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. The imports from Australia were about 427,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%. The imports from Zimbabwe decreased by 36% month - on - month, and those from Nigeria increased by 47% month - on - month. The imports of carbonate lithium in July were 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22%, and 9,000 tons were imported from Chile, accounting for 62% [5] Cost - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Manufacturers with their own ore and salt lakes had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5] Demand - The overall production schedule in August increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 7% month - on - month. In July, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 44.3%. The total export was 23.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% but a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. The sales volume was 127.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% but a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. Policies are expected to support the sales growth of new energy vehicles in China [6] Inventory - This week, the inventory of carbonate lithium was in a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 1,590 tons, market inventory decreasing by 591 tons, and futures inventory increasing by 1,505 tons [6] Strategy Suggestion - It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, but there are still risks in mine certificates, and the cost center has shifted upward. The proportion of long - term contracts and customer - supplied products for battery manufacturers has increased. It is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will be supported in the short term but will continue to fluctuate widely. Cautious trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material manufacturers [6] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, production and output - loading volume differences of power batteries, production of different cathode materials, import volume of lithium spodumene and carbonate lithium, and market prices of related materials [8][10][12] - In July 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 22.56% from salt lakes, 22.05% from lithium mica, and 43.87% from lithium spodumene [20][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,138 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,640 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.51%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,296 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45%. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 80,393 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.34%, with a production profit of 3,613 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica was 84,868 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 2,995 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has strong motivation [8] - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 141,543 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters was 46,846 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.73%; the downstream inventory was 51,507 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.68%; other inventory was 43,190 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.46% [8] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish trend. It is predicted that the production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 will be 84,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%, and the import volume will be 18,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.62%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, lower than the historical average, and the demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 80,940 - 84,580 yuan/ton [8] - **Basis**: On August 21, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,440 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium, showing a bullish trend [8] - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force decreased, showing a bearish trend [8] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market**: The daily opening rate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The monthly import volume was 13,845.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.77%. The monthly net import volume was 17,267.97 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.22%. The supply - demand balance was - 1090 tons, a significant change from the previous month [17] - **Lithium Hydroxide Market**: The monthly production was 25,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94%. The monthly net export volume was 4,777.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%. The supply - demand balance was - 3149 tons, a change from the previous month [17] - **Downstream Market**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 72,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.71%. The monthly production of ternary materials was 25,130 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. The monthly power battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.95% [17] 3.3 Lithium Ore Supply - **Price and Production**: The price of spodumene and lithium mica has shown certain fluctuations. The production of domestic lithium mines has also changed over time. For example, the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has different trends in different years [23] - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed. The inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has shown different trends in different years [23] 3.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly opening rate and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) have different trends. The monthly capacity of lithium carbonate has also changed over time [28] - **Import and Supply - Demand Balance**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has shown different situations in different months [33] 3.5 Lithium Hydroxide Supply - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) have different trends. The monthly capacity of lithium hydroxide has also changed over time [36] - **Export and Supply - Demand Balance**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has shown different situations in different months [39] 3.6 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in different links (smelters, downstream, and others) have different trends [49] - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in different links (smelters and downstream) has changed [49] 3.7 Demand - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have different trends. The inventory of lithium battery cells and the winning bid of energy storage projects have also changed [53][55] - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors have different trends [58][61] - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, opening rate, production, import and export volume, and inventory of ternary materials have different trends [64][66] - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Lithium Iron Demand**: The price, cost, profit, capacity, opening rate, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid lithium iron have different trends [68][71] - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles have different trends [76][80]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has weakened, particularly for lithium carbonate futures, which experienced significant declines due to macroeconomic factors and profit-taking by investors [2][5]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Movements - On August 20, lithium carbonate futures opened significantly lower and continued to decline, with the main contract LC2511 closing at the limit down price of 80,980 yuan/ton [2]. - Analysts attribute the decline in lithium carbonate futures to a combination of weakening macroeconomic conditions and profit-taking by investors after a recent price surge above 90,000 yuan/ton [2][3]. - The market sentiment began to adjust on August 19, leading to a broader decline in commodity prices, which further pressured lithium carbonate prices [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite recent price fluctuations, the supply and demand for lithium carbonate remain in a tight balance, with increased imports of spodumene and rising demand from manufacturers [4][5]. - In July, China imported 750,651 tons of spodumene, a 30.35% increase month-over-month, which helps to offset domestic supply reductions [4]. - The recent downturn in lithium carbonate prices has led to increased purchasing interest from downstream customers, indicating a potential rebound in demand [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while short-term price movements may be influenced by market sentiment, the fundamental supply-demand balance provides a support level for prices, limiting further declines [5][6]. - The current market structure shows a "spot premium over futures" scenario, indicating that future supply constraints may prevent significant price drops [6].