3月6日下午3时，十四届全国人大四次会议举行经济主题记者会。中国人民银行行长潘功胜在会上表 示， 目前我国货币政策采用数量型和价格型调控并行的方式，未来将逐步淡化数量型中介目标，把金 融总量更多作为观测性、参考性、预期性指标，为更好发挥利率调控的作用创造条件。 央行实施适度宽松的货币政策，强化央行政策与市场关切的交集度和针对性 潘功胜在会上表示， 2025年以来，人民银行实施适度宽松的货币政策，强化央行政策与市场关切的交 集度和针对性，在数量、利率、结构等方面推出多项政策举措，支持实体经济稳定增长、高质量发展和 金融市场稳定运行。 今年初，人民银行又发布了涉及结构性货币政策工具的若干调整项，下调结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25个百分点，扩大投放规模和支持范围，完善政策要素，并单设1万亿元民营企业再贷款。 同时，保持流动性充裕，今年以来公开市场各项工具净投放中长期资金约2万亿元。 2025年债券融资占社融增量46%，中国金融市场融资结构正发生深刻变化 潘功胜在会上表示，总体看，社会融资条件处于宽松状态，金融总量合理增长。 2026年1月末，社会融资规模同比增长8.2%，广义货币（M2）同比增长9%。社会综合融资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed with mixed results, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue chips. The CSI 1000 was the strongest among the four broad-based indices. After the A-share market recorded a good start, it is expected to continue the upward trend due to factors such as continuous trade disturbances overseas weakening market confidence in US dollar assets, accelerated movement of residents' deposits providing liquidity support for the stock market, high consumer spending during the Spring Festival showing the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies, the approaching Two Sessions, and the continuous strengthening of the RMB [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2603) was at 4712.2, down 18.8; IF second main contract (2606) was at 4671.2, down 24.6. IH main contract (2603) was at 3034.6, down 23.4; IH second main contract (2606) was at 3031.0, down 23.0. IC main contract (2603) was at 8537.4, up 19.2; IC second main contract (2606) was at 8427.4, up 2.0. IM main contract (2603) was at 8443.4, up 41.6; IM second main contract (2606) was at 8260.4, up 18.6 [2] - IF - IH current contract spread was 1677.6, up 4.4; IC - IF current contract spread was 3825.2, up 27.6. IM - IC current contract spread was -94.0, up 29.4; IC - IH current contract spread was 5502.8, up 32.0 [2] - IF quarterly - current was -41.0, up 57.0; IF next - current was -97.4, up 61.4. IH quarterly - current was -3.6, up 1.2; IH next - current was -37.4, up 1.6. IC quarterly - current was -110.0, down 18.4; IC next - current was -239.2, down 27.2. IM quarterly - current was -183.0, down 24.8; IM next - current was -369.6, down 32.4 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net position was -35,984.00, up 3756.0; IH top 20 net position was -21,592.00, up 784.0. IC top 20 net position was -42,437.00, up 634.0; IM top 20 net position was -59,382.00, up 3060.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 was at 4726.87, down 9.0; IF main contract basis was -14.7, down 10.2. SSE 50 was at 3035.1, down 19.9; IH main contract basis was -0.5, down 3.8. CSI 500 was at 8557.2, up 29.7; IC main contract basis was -19.8, down 21.3. CSI 1000 was at 8490.6, up 64.3; IM main contract basis was -47.2, down 26.5 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 25,566.39, up 757.47; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 26,466.26, up 238.70. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 3195.37, up 23.76; reverse repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) was -4000.0, up 3205.0 [2] - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were -177.82 and -472.19. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 45.30, down 23.01; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.368, down 0.010 [2] - IO at - the - money call option closing price (2603) was 44.40, down 12.40; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 12.22, down 0.91. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2603) was 79.60, up 4.00; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 12.77, down 0.36 [2] - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) was 13.82, up 0.02; trading volume PCR (%) was 55.95, down 2.84. Position PCR (%) was 65.69, up 0.79 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares were at 5.30, down 1.70; technical aspect was at 4.50, down 2.30. Capital aspect was at 6.10, down 1.10 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In January, the increment of social financing scale was 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, with the end - of - month balance at 276.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. At the end of January, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year [2] - On February 24, 2026, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. LPR has remained stable for 9 consecutive months [2] - During the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourist trips was 596 million, an increase of 95 million compared with the 8 - day Spring Festival holiday in 2025; domestic tourism spending was 803.483 billion yuan, an increase of 126.481 billion yuan compared with the 8 - day Spring Festival holiday in 2025 [2] 3.7 Key Points to Focus On - At 21:30 on February 26, pay attention to the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 21. At 21:30 on February 27, pay attention to the US January PPI and core PPI [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the social financing increased slightly year-on-year, mainly supported by the earlier issuance and higher net financing scale of government bonds compared to the same period in 2025. The credit performance was in line with market expectations, with a year-on-year decrease in January for the first time since 2018. Both corporate and household medium - and long - term loans were weak, relying mainly on short - term loans. It is expected that this month's social financing will have little impact on the bond market, and it is recommended to continuously track high - frequency credit indicators [1][5][30] Summary by Related Content Social Financing Situation - In January 2026, the new social financing was 7.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1654 billion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. Direct financing supported the social financing, with a year - on - year increase of 3228 billion yuan to 1.51 trillion yuan. On the contrary, on - balance - sheet financing dragged down the social financing, with a year - on - year decrease of 2334 billion yuan to 4.95 trillion yuan, while off - balance - sheet financing increased slightly year - on - year [1][7] - Among direct financing, government bonds had a net financing scale of 1.18 trillion yuan in January 2026, a year - on - year increase of 2831 billion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. Corporate bonds increased by 579 billion yuan year - on - year to 5033 billion yuan, the second - highest since 2020 [12] RMB Credit Situation - In January 2026, RMB credit decreased by 4200 billion yuan year - on - year to 4.71 trillion yuan, the first year - on - year decrease in the "good start" month since 2018. The corporate sector decreased by 3300 billion yuan year - on - year, while the household sector increased slightly by 127 billion yuan year - on - year [2][16] - In the corporate sector, only short - term corporate loans increased by 3100 billion yuan year - on - year to 2.05 trillion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. Medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased by 2800 billion yuan year - on - year to 3.18 trillion yuan, with the growth rate dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 7.58%. Bill financing decreased by 3690 billion yuan year - on - year to - 8739 billion yuan, and the growth rate of bill financing balance dropped to 9.17% [2][19] Money Supply and Deposit Situation - Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (falling in February), the cash - withdrawal demand of residents and enterprises in January was low, resulting in limited growth of M0 and a significant drop in the M0 growth rate to 2.7% [3][24] - In January 2026, the growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded, rising from 3.8% and 8.5% in December 2025 to 4.9% and 9% respectively. The maturity of a large amount of time deposits and the increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement surplus may have contributed to the rebound of M1 and M2 [4][24] - In January 2026, corporate deposit increments were significantly higher than the same period in previous years, while household deposit increments were lower. Fiscal deposit increments were also higher than the same period in previous years, possibly due to the higher net financing scale of government bonds. Non - bank deposit increments were high because the stock market was still rising, attracting funds into the market [5][26]

Group 1 - As of the end of January, the total social financing stock increased by 8.2% year-on-year, reaching 449.11 trillion yuan [1] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 273.3 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [1] - The balance of government bonds grew by 17.3% year-on-year, amounting to 95.9 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - In January, the increment of social financing was 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 1.662 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The net financing of government bonds in January was 9.764 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.831 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] - The net financing of corporate bonds was 5.033 trillion yuan, which is 579 billion yuan more than the previous year [2] Group 3 - The broad money supply (M2) at the end of January was 347.19 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% [3] - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 4.9% year-on-year, reaching 117.97 trillion yuan [3] - The cash in circulation (M0) increased by 2.7% year-on-year, totaling 14.61 trillion yuan [3] Group 4 - In January, RMB deposits increased by 8.09 trillion yuan, with the total RMB deposit balance reaching 336.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [4] - Household deposits rose by 2.13 trillion yuan, while non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 2.61 trillion yuan [4] - Fiscal deposits grew by 1.55 trillion yuan, and deposits from non-bank financial institutions increased by 1.45 trillion yuan [4] Group 5 - RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan in January, with the total RMB loan balance at 276.62 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [5] - Loans to households increased by 456.5 billion yuan, while loans to enterprises rose by 4.45 trillion yuan [5] - Loans from non-bank financial institutions decreased by 188.2 billion yuan [5] Group 6 - The weighted average interbank lending rate in January was 1.4%, down 0.46 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The weighted average rate for pledged repos was 1.43%, which is 0.73 percentage points lower than the same period last year [6] Group 7 - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was 3.0%, and the LPR for loans over five years was 3.5%, both unchanged from the end of the previous year [7] Group 8 - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index fell by 1.02% compared to the end of the previous year [8] - The RMB to USD exchange rate was 6.9678, appreciating by 0.88% year-on-year [8] - The RMB to EUR and JPY exchange rates depreciated by 1.07% and 1.47% respectively compared to the end of the previous year [8]

Report Overview - The report is a daily panorama of stock index futures on February 24, 2026, providing data on futures contracts, market sentiment, and industry news [1][2] Futures Contract Data Price Changes - IF主力合约（2603）最新价格4683.4，环比上涨43.8；IF次主力合约（2602）最新价格4711.2，环比上涨60.6 [2] - IH主力合约（2603）价格3037.4，环比上涨7.2；IH次主力合约（2602）价格3042.6，环比上涨11.0 [2] - IC主力合约（2603）价格8371.6，环比上涨75.2；IC次主力合约（2602）价格8400.6，环比上涨91.4 [2] - IM主力合约（2603）价格8271.0，环比上涨57.6；IM次主力合约（2602）价格8310.6，环比上涨85.2 [2] Spread Changes - IF - IH当月合约价差1668.6，环比上涨50.6；IC - IF当月合约价差3689.4，环比上涨49.4 [2] - IM - IC当月合约价差 - 90.0，环比下降7.0；IC - IH当月合约价差5358.0，环比上涨100.0 [2] - IM - IF当月合约价差3599.4，环比上涨42.4；IM - IH当月合约价差5268.0，环比上涨93.0 [2] Seasonal Spread Changes - IF当季 - 当月为 - 70.8，环比下降15.0；IF下季 - 当月为 - 127.4，环比下降19.0 [2] - IH当季 - 当月为 - 11.6，环比下降4.6；IH下季 - 当月为 - 42.2，环比下降3.2 [2] - IC当季 - 当月为 - 128.4，环比下降10.8；IC下季 - 当月为 - 254.4，环比下降19.6 [2] - IM当季 - 当月为 - 200.0，环比下降21.6；IM下季 - 当月为 - 380.2，环比下降32.2 [2] Net Position Changes - IF前20名净持仓 - 38,036.00，环比下降114.0；IH前20名净持仓 - 20,771.00，环比上涨495.0 [2] - IC前20名净持仓 - 39,965.00，环比上涨397.0；IM前20名净持仓 - 62,005.00，环比下降1727.0 [2] Spot Price and Market Sentiment Spot Price - 沪深300指数4707.54，环比上涨47.1；IF主力合约基差 - 24.1，环比上涨9.3 [2] - 上证50指数3,041.3，环比上涨7.0；IH主力合约基差 - 3.9，环比上涨10.4 [2] - 中证500指数8,392.9，环比上涨93.3；IC主力合约基差 - 21.3，环比上涨3.5 [2] - 中证1000指数8,299.8，环比上涨94.9；IM主力合约基差 - 28.8，环比下降12.9 [2] Market Sentiment - A股成交额22,181.61亿元，环比上涨2192.19亿元；两融余额25,881.25亿元，环比下降574.77亿元 [2] - 北向成交合计2696.41亿元，环比下降200.17亿元；逆回购到期量 - 14524.0亿元，操作量 + 5260.0亿元 [2] - 主力资金 - 367.41亿元，环比上涨63.78亿元；上涨股票比例73.09%，环比上涨45.02% [2] - IO平值看涨期权收盘价66.00，环比上涨4.00；IO平值看涨期权隐含波动率14.02%，环比下降3.28% [2] - IO平值看跌期权收盘价77.40，环比下降51.80；IO平值看跌期权隐含波动率14.02%，环比下降4.04% [2] - 沪深300指数20日波动率13.68%，环比上涨0.53%；成交量PCR 65.49%，环比下降3.44% [2] - 持仓量PCR 66.91%，环比上涨2.29% [2] - Wind市场强弱分析：全部A股7.30，环比上涨3.90；技术面7.30，环比上涨4.50；资金面7.20，环比上涨3.30 [2] Industry News - In January, the increment of social financing scale was 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, with the balance at the end of the month reaching 276.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. At the end of January, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year [2] - On February 24, 2026, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%. LPR has remained stable for 9 consecutive months [2] - A - share major indexes closed generally higher. The three major indexes first declined and then rose in the morning, and fell again in the afternoon, recording a false negative line. Small and medium - cap stocks outperformed large - cap blue - chip stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.36%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.99%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly. More than 4000 stocks in the whole market rose. Most industry sectors rose, with the petrochemical and building materials sectors strengthening significantly, and the media sector weakening significantly [2] - Overseas, after the Supreme Court overturned the tariffs imposed by Trump, he signed an executive order to impose new tariffs, which intensified market distrust of US dollar assets. Domestically, during the festival, the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 8.6% compared with the same period in 2025, with the growth rate further increasing in the first four days of the holiday, reaching 10.6% in some periods, indicating a recovery in consumer spending. In terms of capital, the January financial data showed a significant year - on - year increase in non - bank deposits and a significant decline in the year - on - year growth rate of household deposits. The difference between the growth rate of household deposits and M2 growth rate fell into negative territory, and the ratio of A - share market value to household deposits rose to 68%, indicating an accelerated transfer of household deposits [2] Viewpoint Summary - Although overseas trade disturbances continue, the US use of tariffs as a weapon weakens market confidence in US dollar assets, leading to capital outflows from the US and providing a good opportunity for A - shares. The transfer of household deposits also provides liquidity support for the stock market. The continuous high consumer spending during the Spring Festival shows the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies. With the approaching of the Two Sessions and the strengthening of the RMB during the Spring Festival, A - shares are expected to continue the upward trend after a good start [2] Key Data to Watch - February 25, 18:00: Eurozone January HCPI and core HCPI final values [3] - February 26, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ended February 21 [3] - February 27, 21:30: US January PPI and core PPI [3]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 春节前最后一个交易日国债期货主力合约开盘大致平开，早盘横向波动一段后下 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 行，午后有所回升，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 涨 | 0.04%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 下跌 | 0.10%，5 | 年期 | TF2603 | 下跌 | 0.09%，2 | 年期 | TS2603 | 下 ...

1月末，社会融资规模存量同比增长8.2%，广义货币供应量（M2）同比增长9.0%，明显高于名义国内 生产总值（GDP）增速，充分体现了适度宽松的货币政策状态，有力支持了年初经济平稳开局。 对于1月份的数据，业内专家表示，综合来看，适度宽松货币政策持续发力、政府债"靠前发力"仍是重 要原因。 "2026年开年宏观政策更加积极有为。一方面是适度宽松的货币政策持续发力，灵活运用多种货币政策 工具保持流动性充裕，下调结构性工具利率0.25个百分点，完善结构性工具设计和管理，按市场化方式 激励引导银行增加对重点领域信贷投放；另一方面是财政政策基调更加积极，1月份政府债券融资9764 亿元，比上年同期多2831亿元，国债、地方政府一般债和专项债发行规模都明显增加。1月份，政府债 券融资增量在全部社会融资规模中的占比达到13.5%，是2021年以来同期最高水平。"市场观察人士分 析认为。 除政府债券之外，企业债券、股权融资等直接融资渠道也在加快发展。当前经济新旧动能加速转换，高 新技术产业、战略性新兴产业快速崛起，需要包括股权、债券融资在内的多元化融资渠道提供全生命周 期的资金支持。有不少企业表示，其未来主要考虑以贷款与债 ...

2月10日，从人民银行山西省分行召开的2025年山西省金融统计数据新闻发布会上获悉，2025年，山西 社会融资规模稳定增长，各项存款保持平稳增长，信贷总量合理增长，社会综合融资成本进一步降低， 对重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度加大，跨境人民币服务水平不断提高，外汇服务质效显著提升，为山 西推动高质量发展、深化全方位转型提供了有力有效的金融支持。 从社会融资规模看 2025年末，全省社会融资规模存量达7万亿元，同比增长7.3%；新增5061.3亿元。其中，投向实体经济 的本外币贷款和政府债券净融资增量合计占全部社融增量的94.4%。 从各项存款看 在信贷投放方面 人民银行山西省分行进一步畅通政策传导机制，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，引导金 融机构加大信贷投放。2025年末，全省金融机构本外币各项贷款余额4.9万亿元，较年初增加3364亿 元，同比增长7.4%，快于全国1.2个百分点。 与此同时 人民银行山西省分行发挥再贷款等政策工具激励作用，加大对重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。健全货 币政策工具管理机制，规范业务办理流程；发挥支农支小再贷款和再贴现等结构性货币政策工具激励引 导作用，支持金融机构提升 ...

2月10日，记者从人民银行山西省分行召开的2025年山西省金融统计数据新闻发布会上获悉，2025年， 山西社会融资规模稳定增长，各项存款保持平稳增长，信贷总量合理增长，社会综合融资成本进一步降 低，对重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度加大，跨境人民币服务水平不断提高，外汇服务质效显著提升， 为山西推动高质量发展、深化全方位转型提供了有力有效的金融支持。 从社会融资规模看，2025年末，全省社会融资规模存量达7万亿元，同比增长7.3%；新增5061.3亿元。 其中，投向实体经济的本外币贷款和政府债券净融资增量合计占全部社融增量的94.4%。 从各项存款看，全省金融机构本外币各项存款余额6.5万亿元，同比增长5.7%，较年初增加3474.2亿 元，同比多增211.3亿元。其中，住户存款余额4.4万亿元，同比增长8%，较年初增加3244.8亿元，增量 占全部存款增量的93.4%。 在信贷投放方面，人民银行山西省分行进一步畅通政策传导机制，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流 动性充裕，引导金融机构加大信贷投放。2025年末，全省金融机构本外币各项贷款余额4.9万亿元，较 年初增加3364亿元，同比增长7.4%，快于全国1.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Shanxi Province's financial sector is expected to provide strong support for high-quality development and comprehensive transformation through stable growth in social financing, deposits, and reasonable credit expansion, alongside reduced financing costs and improved cross-border financial services [2][3][4] Group 1: Social Financing and Deposits - By the end of 2025, the total social financing scale in Shanxi Province is projected to reach 7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.3% with an increase of 506.13 billion yuan [2] - The balance of various deposits in financial institutions is expected to be 6.5 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with a net increase of 347.42 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [2] - Household deposits are anticipated to reach 4.4 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, contributing 93.4% to the total deposit increase [2] Group 2: Credit Expansion - By the end of 2025, the balance of loans in financial institutions is projected to be 4.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, outpacing the national average by 1.2 percentage points [3] - The People's Bank of Shanxi is expected to enhance support for key sectors and weak links, with a total of 84.4 billion yuan in re-loans issued for agricultural and small enterprises, marking a year-on-year increase of 16 billion yuan [3] - Loans to small and micro enterprises are projected to grow by 10.5% year-on-year, exceeding the overall loan growth rate by 3.1 percentage points [3] Group 3: Cross-Border Financial Services - In 2025, the cross-border RMB settlement volume is expected to reach 65 billion yuan, with RMB settlements accounting for 28.6%, a significant increase of 8.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The total cross-border receipts and payments are projected to be 34.34 billion USD, with over 80% attributed to goods trade [4] - Cross-border receipts with countries and regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative are expected to reach 17.3 billion USD, becoming a crucial support for Shanxi's foreign trade [4]