（作者单位：中原期货） 本周，央行有7118亿元逆回购到期。前两个工作日，央行已经通过逆回购操作向市场投放8468亿元流动 性，周内大概率通过逆回购投放大量流动性，有助于平抑短端利率上行趋势。 （文章来源：期货日报） 央行公布的数据显示，7月社会融资规模为11600亿元，同比上升9%，且今年以来月度社会融资规模同 比增速除5月持平外，其他月份都在上升，说明中长期融资需求回暖。 近期，国内资金市场利率呈现全面上升态势。一方面，月中缴税、缴款叠加国债发行，短端利率回升； 另一方面，融资需求持续回暖，股市稳步攀升，进一步提振市场信心，中长端利率稳中有升。截至8月 19日，上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）隔夜、1周期、2周期、1月期、3月期、6月期、9月期、1年 期利率分别报收于1464%、1.517%、1.599%、1.528%、1.55%、1.61%、1.637%、1.647%，较8月12日分 别上升14.9、8.4、14.3、0.1、0.2、0.1、0.8、0.9个基点。 未来，预计国内市场资金利率呈短弱长强格局。一方面，月中缴税、缴款高峰期结束，央行加大逆回购 投放力度，短端利率将随之回落；另一方面，融 ...

Group 1 - The financial performance in July shows that social financing scale and broad money (M_2) growth rates remain high, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy stance [1] - The year-on-year growth of RMB loans at the end of July is 6.9%, which has decreased compared to the previous month, raising concerns about support for the real economy [1] - July is traditionally a low month for credit, as banks tend to push credit growth forward to achieve better performance metrics by the end of June [1] Group 2 - The growth rate of bond financing in China is currently faster than that of credit financing, with direct financing's share in the social financing scale gradually increasing, optimizing the financing structure [2] - The rise in direct financing is beneficial for meeting the diversified financing needs of enterprises, moving away from a reliance on bank credit [2] - Financial institutions are shifting their focus from scale and growth to service and precision, which will enhance the quality and sustainability of financial support for the real economy [2] Group 3 - The accelerated issuance of government bonds has created a substitution effect for loans, while active fiscal policies are expected to stimulate total demand and increase credit demand in the long run [3] - Monthly loan data alone is insufficient to accurately reflect economic activity or the extent of financial support for the real economy, and there should be no excessive focus on monthly fluctuations [3] - Financial institutions need to adapt to the changing economic structure, as traditional credit demand decreases while new momentum sectors see increased demand [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese economy, specifically focusing on the credit market and social financing trends in July 2023. Key Points and Arguments Credit Market Performance - In July 2023, new RMB loans contracted by 50 billion, marking the first decline since July 2005, and fell short of market expectations of 285 billion [1] - Total new loans were 3.1 trillion less than the previous year, with household loans decreasing by 489 billion and corporate loans increasing by 600 billion [1] - The contraction in household medium to long-term loans was 110 billion, significantly lower than the previous year's figures [1] - The overall credit demand is weak, attributed to a sluggish real estate market and low corporate credit demand [2] Social Financing Trends - New social financing in July was 1.157 trillion, down 386 billion year-on-year, and below the market expectation of 1.5 trillion [3] - The key factor for the underperformance was the weak RMB loans, which contracted by 426 billion [3] - Government bonds issuance remained strong at 1.2 trillion, up 556 billion year-on-year, contributing positively to social financing growth [3] Future Outlook - Credit growth is expected to slow in the second half of the year due to accelerated government bond issuance, which has already reached 57% of the annual target for national bonds and 67% for local government bonds [4] - The government plans to provide interest subsidies for consumer loans, which may have a mild impact on credit and consumption demand due to underlying issues with income and consumer confidence [4] - The forecast for social financing growth is expected to decline from 9% in July to approximately 8.6% by the end of 2025 [4] Additional Insights - A significant drop in household deposits by 1.1 trillion year-on-year indicates a potential shift of funds from bank deposits to financial markets [1] - The ongoing debt replacement for local government financing platforms may also be suppressing corporate loan demand [2] - The overall credit impulse remains stable at 3.2% of GDP, indicating a steady but cautious economic environment [3] Important but Overlooked Content - The contraction in loans is not only a seasonal trend but also reflects deeper economic issues, including the impact of falling real estate prices on consumer wealth and confidence [4] - The government’s fiscal policy adjustments, including potential increases in the fiscal deficit, may provide some support for credit growth in the latter part of the year [4]

Monetary Policy Focus - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the implementation and refinement of a moderately loose monetary policy, indicating a shift towards ensuring effective execution of previously announced financial policies [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of tracking the transmission and actual effects of prior policies, suggesting a cautious approach to further easing measures in the short term [2][3] Credit Support and Financial Structure - The report indicates a change in focus from increasing credit volume to stabilizing credit support, reflecting a shift towards quality over quantity in financial services [4][5] - It emphasizes the need to observe broader financial indicators such as social financing scale and M2, rather than solely focusing on loan amounts, to better assess the effectiveness of financial support for the real economy [5][6] Financial Services and Economic Structure - The report outlines initiatives to enhance financial services for small and micro enterprises, support technological innovation, and improve the quality of service consumption, aiming to optimize the credit structure in alignment with economic transformation [6][7] - It notes a significant shift in the structure of new loans, with a growing proportion directed towards strategic economic sectors, indicating a focus on sustainable financial support for high-quality economic development [6][7]

Group 1: Consumer Loan Subsidy Policy - The central government has introduced a subsidy policy for personal consumer loans and service industry loans, referred to as "national subsidy" in the consumer loan sector [2][3] - The subsidy rate is set at 1 percentage point for both personal consumer loans and service industry loans, aimed at reducing credit costs for residents and businesses [2][3] - The policy targets consumption in key areas such as home appliances, automobiles, education, and healthcare, with specific conditions for loans to service industry entities [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, both showing a decline compared to June [4] - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6%, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to the first half of the year [4] - The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted external challenges such as trade protectionism and extreme weather affecting economic performance [4] Group 3: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - As of the end of July, the total social financing scale reached 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [5] - The increase in bond financing has significantly contributed to the growth of social financing, with government bond net financing up by 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [5] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 5.6%, indicating improved liquidity and efficiency in the financial system [5][6] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3700-point mark, reaching a high of 3704.77 points, marking a significant recovery in the A-share market [7] - The number of new stock accounts opened in July surged by 71% year-on-year, reflecting increased investor enthusiasm [7] - Analysts suggest that the upward momentum in the stock market is supported by clear policy backing and the influx of new capital [7] Group 5: Trade Relations - The U.S. and China have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, while retaining 10% tariffs on certain goods [8] - This agreement follows a series of trade talks aimed at reducing tensions and enhancing cooperation between the two nations [8] - The ongoing discussions indicate a willingness to engage in dialogue to resolve trade issues, although challenges remain [8] Group 6: Healthcare Policy - The National Healthcare Security Administration has published a list of drugs that passed the preliminary review for inclusion in the national medical insurance and commercial insurance innovation drug directories [9] - A total of 534 drugs were approved for the basic medical insurance directory, while 121 drugs were approved for the commercial insurance innovation directory [9][10] - The introduction of the commercial insurance innovation drug directory aims to support high-value innovative drugs and facilitate their market entry [10] Group 7: Taxation Policy - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have released a draft for public consultation regarding the implementation of the Value-Added Tax Law, set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [11][12] - The draft aims to clarify regulations and enhance the operability of the tax system, although expectations for loan interest to be tax-deductible were not met [11][12] - The implementation of the VAT law is seen as a crucial step in establishing a comprehensive legal framework for taxation in China [12]

Monetary Policy Stance - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will implement a moderately easing monetary policy [1] - The PBOC will maintain ample liquidity in the market [1] - The PBOC aims to align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price stability targets [1] - The PBOC considers promoting a reasonable rebound in prices as an important factor in monetary policy [1] Economic Objectives - The PBOC aims to maintain price levels at a reasonable level [1]

Core Viewpoint - The latest financial data from the People's Bank of China indicates a continued moderate easing of monetary policy, with social financing and broad money supply growing at rates higher than economic growth, reflecting a stable financial environment [1][5]. Group 1: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - As of the end of July, the total social financing stock grew by 9%, broad money (M2) by 8.8%, and RMB loans by 6.9%, all exceeding economic growth rates [1]. - In the first seven months, the cumulative increase in social financing was 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, with RMB loans increasing by 12.87 trillion yuan [1][2]. - The net cash injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan, indicating a sustained moderate easing of monetary policy [1]. Group 2: Government and Corporate Financing - The increase in social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.893 billion yuan, marking the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year growth [2]. - The net financing from government bonds in July increased by 5.559 billion yuan year-on-year, significantly contributing to the expansion of social financing [2]. - Corporate bond financing reached 279.1 billion yuan in July, up 755 million yuan year-on-year, supported by declining bond issuance rates and the expansion of technology innovation bonds [2]. Group 3: Loan Performance - As of the end of July, the RMB loan balance was 268.51 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, down from 8.7% the previous year [4]. - In July, new loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year decline of 310 billion yuan [4]. - The demand for loans from residents remained weak, with new resident loans dropping to -489.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 279.3 billion yuan [6]. Group 4: Money Supply Dynamics - The M2 balance at the end of July was 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [8]. - The gap between M1 and M2 narrowed to 3.2%, indicating an increase in the liquidity of funds [8][10]. - Analysts suggest that the recent increase in M1 growth reflects improved investment and consumption activity among businesses and residents [9][10].

Group 1 - As of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1] - The cash in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.28 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] Group 2 - In the first seven months, the total social financing increased by 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 12.31 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 694 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2] - The net financing of government bonds reached 8.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [2] Group 3 - By the end of July, the total social financing stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [3] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 264.79 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3] - The balance of government bonds grew by 21.9% year-on-year, reaching 89.99 trillion yuan [3] Group 4 - The balance of RMB loans as of the end of July was 268.51 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [4] - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 680.7 billion yuan [4] - Loans to enterprises increased by 11.63 trillion yuan during the same period [4] Group 5 - The balance of RMB deposits reached 320.67 trillion yuan by the end of July, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [5] - In the first seven months, RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 9.66 trillion yuan [5] - Non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 310.9 billion yuan during this period [5] Group 6 - In July, the weighted average interbank lending rate was 1.45%, down 0.36 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The weighted average repo rate was 1.46%, also down 0.36 percentage points compared to the previous year [6] Group 7 - The one-year loan market quoted rate was 3.00% as of July 21, down 0.1 percentage points from the end of last year [7] - The five-year loan market quoted rate was 3.50%, also down 0.1 percentage points compared to the end of last year [7] Group 8 - By the end of July, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index was 96.76, down 4.64% from the end of last year [8] - The RMB to USD exchange rate was 7.1494, appreciating by 0.55% compared to the end of last year [8] - The RMB to Euro exchange rate depreciated by 8.13% compared to the end of last year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive trends in China's financial data as of July, indicating a stable growth in social financing and improvements in credit structure, driven by effective financial policies and increased support for the real economy [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of July, the year-on-year growth rates for social financing scale, broad money M2, and RMB loans were 9%, 8.8%, and 6.9% respectively, reflecting a stable growth in social financing and an optimized credit structure [1]. - The narrowing of the M1-M2 gap to 3.2 percentage points, down 11 percentage points from last September's peak, indicates enhanced liquidity and economic vitality, with M1 growing by 5.6% year-on-year [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing M1 Growth - The recent increase in M1 is attributed to a lower base effect from previous negative growth and a trend of fund activation, driven by accelerated fiscal spending and improved efficiency in fund allocation [2]. - The active performance of the capital market and rising equity asset prices have encouraged entities to convert some fixed deposits into demand deposits for more flexible market participation [2]. Group 3: Social Financing and Credit Growth - The growth rate of social financing has outpaced that of RMB loans by 2.1 percentage points, primarily due to ongoing fiscal policy efforts, with government bond net financing significantly contributing to social financing [3]. - The RMB loan balance grew by 6.9% year-on-year as of July, with seasonal factors and regulatory measures impacting credit demand, particularly in the traditional off-peak season for credit issuance [3]. Group 4: Structural Changes in Financing - The diversification of corporate financing channels has made traditional loan metrics less reflective of financial support effectiveness, necessitating a broader analysis using indicators like social financing and M2 [4]. - The ongoing optimization of structural monetary policy tools has effectively enhanced financial support for key sectors, with significant growth in loans for technology, green initiatives, and small and micro enterprises [4][5]. Group 5: Policy Measures to Boost Consumption - Recent policies aimed at subsidizing personal consumption and service industry loans are designed to lower financing costs and direct credit towards key areas, thereby stimulating consumption and service sector recovery [5]. - The implementation of interest subsidy policies is expected to improve consumer repayment capacity and enhance the profitability of service industry entities, promoting credit demand and job creation [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive trends in China's financial data, indicating a stable growth in social financing and improvements in credit structure, driven by effective financial policies [1][3] - As of the end of July, the year-on-year growth rates for social financing scale, broad money M2, and RMB loans were 9%, 8.8%, and 6.9% respectively, reflecting enhanced financial support for the real economy [1] - The narrowing of the M1-M2 spread to 3.2 percentage points, down 11 percentage points from the previous year's high, indicates increased liquidity and economic vitality, with more "dormant deposits" being converted into demand deposits [1][2] Group 2 - The growth of M1, which includes cash and demand deposits, has been positively influenced by the acceleration of fiscal spending and the issuance of special bonds, leading to a significant increase in corporate demand deposits [2][3] - The divergence between social financing and loan growth, with social financing growth outpacing loan growth by 2.1 percentage points, is attributed to sustained fiscal policy efforts, including a notable increase in government bond net financing [3] - The issuance of new special bonds reached 2.16 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a 45% year-on-year increase, with expectations for continued rapid issuance in August and September [3] Group 3 - The diversification of corporate financing channels has made traditional loan metrics less reflective of financial support effectiveness, necessitating a broader analysis using indicators like social financing and M2 [4] - Structural monetary policy tools have been optimized to enhance financial support for key sectors, with significant loan growth observed in technology, green, inclusive, and digital economy sectors [4] - By the end of July, inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.05 trillion yuan, growing 11.8% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector totaled 14.79 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year [4] Group 4 - Recent policies on personal consumption loans and service industry loan interest subsidies aim to strengthen fiscal and financial collaboration, directing more credit to key areas [5] - The interest subsidy policy is expected to lower repayment costs for residents, enhancing consumption capacity and willingness, while also alleviating financial pressure on service industry operators [5] - This initiative is anticipated to stimulate credit demand, expand business operations, and create more job opportunities [5]