在波动的资本市场中，银华瑞和的基金经理张腾以其独特的能源视角与宏观框架，走出了一条与众不同 的周期投资之路。 他不是传统意义上的"价值派"，也非单纯追逐热点的"成长型选手"，而是一位深谙产业底层逻辑、善于 在不确定性中捕捉确定性的"反脆弱"实践者。 从碳中和时代的煤炭布局，到"反内卷"背景下的有色崛起，张腾用扎实的宏观推演与产业深耕，证明了 周期投资可以做到高胜率，价值投资也可以具有高弹性。 在碳中和与"反内卷"交织的新环境下，他将凭借对能源格局的深刻理解、对宏观慢变量的敏锐洞察以及 成熟分散的对冲体系，在周期浪潮中为投资者捕捉那些真正的结构性机会。 张腾，硕士研究生。曾就职于上海申银万国研究所、中邮创业基金管理股份有限公司，2023年7月加入 银华基金，现任权益投资管理部基金经理/投资经理助理（社保、基本养老）。 周期股投资的弹性哲学 这一反思直接催生了张腾独特的"反脆弱"投资框架。在这一体系中，他首要坚持的是行业分散原 则："在行业的选择上，我一般会有5个主要持仓方向，即便是自己最看好的方向，也不会过度集 中。"这并非无目的的分散，而是在深度聚焦自身能力圈的基础上，通过跨行业配置降低单一风险。更 重要的是 ...

贵金属日报 2025-08-25 贵金属 沪金涨 0.71 %，报 781.12 元/克，沪银涨 1.98 %，报 9403.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.15 %， 报 3413.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 0.45 %，报 38.88 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.26%，美元指数报 97.77 ； 市场展望： 上周五晚间鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会的讲话显示其货币政策倾向出现重大边际转向，这标 志着新一轮降息周期的开启：就通胀问题，鲍威尔表示通胀虽然仍相对偏高，但已从疫情后的 高点大幅回落，更关键的是，鲍威尔表示"一个合理的基准情形是，关税对于价格的影响是相 对短暂的，即物价是一次性的变动"，即承认了关税对于通胀的影响并不具备持续性。对于劳 动力市场，鲍威尔表明了担忧，他认为当前劳动力市场的平衡来自于美国劳动力供给和需求的 双重放缓，而这正表明就业下行的风险在上升，并且可能将以裁员增加和失业率迅速上升的方 式呈现。关于后续的货币政策路径，鲍威尔认为联邦公开市场委员会的成员将继续根据数据及 其对经济前景和风险影响的评估来作出决定。即使鲍威尔仍表达了基于就业和通胀的货币政策 ...

□本报记者张凌之 这种从"变量"到"机会"的推演能力，使他的周期投资呈现出较强的进攻性。他强调，很多人对价值存在 认知偏差——"大家给价值贴的标签就是没什么弹性"。但事实上，在他重点布局的有色、化工、钢铁等 板块中，"也有很多短期弹性比较大的标的"。他以碳中和行情中的周期品种、地缘冲突背景中的传统能 源股为例，这些机会不仅具备价值属性，同样可以带来显著超额收益："并不是因为做价值投资就丧失 了整个组合的弹性。"他管理的基金业绩也印证了这一点，截至2025年8月15日，银华瑞和灵活配置混合 基金(005544)今年以来净值增长率29.69%(业绩比较基准3.96%)，过去一年净值增长率45.77%(业绩比较 基准15.23%)，在同类型基金中排名84/415。 真正让张腾区别于传统周期股投资选手的，是他将宏观思维嵌入产业研究中，形成多维度、长周期的决 策框架，从而在周期轮动中实现更早的布局与切换。 "反脆弱"框架持续进化 在波谲云诡的资本市场中，银华瑞和的基金经理张腾以其独特的能源视角与宏观框架，走出了一条与众 不同的周期投资之路。 他不是传统意义上的"价值派"，也非单纯追逐热点的"成长型选手"，而是一位深谙产 ...

Group 1 - Central banks have increased gold reserves for nine consecutive months, with July's reserves reaching 73.96 million ounces (approximately 2300.41 tons), a month-on-month increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) [1] - In Q2 2025, global central banks net purchased 166 tons of gold, indicating a continued optimistic outlook for central bank gold demand despite a slowdown in purchasing pace [2] Group 2 - Global gold demand surged by 45% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching a record $132 billion, driven by geopolitical tensions and a weakening trust in fiat currencies [2] - The average increase in gold prices during Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycles is 28%, with historical examples showing significant price rises during previous cycles [3] Group 3 - The current environment of low or negative interest rates from major central banks, including the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, encourages investment in gold as a hedge against low-yield asset risks [4] - Year-to-date, spot gold prices have risen over 26%, with a peak of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets [5] Group 4 - The total net inflow into gold ETFs in the A-share market this year has reached 60.7 billion yuan, with the average annual increase of these products at 26%, leading to a total scale growth to 152.25 billion yuan [5][7] - The largest gold ETF by market capitalization is the Huaan Fund Gold ETF, with a latest market value of 58.646 billion yuan, followed by the Bosera Fund Gold ETF and the E Fund Gold ETF [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on precious metals, driven by fluctuations in U.S. employment data and the weakening global position of the U.S. dollar, which is expected to support gold prices [5] - Industrial metal prices are currently declining, but significant infrastructure projects in China are anticipated to boost overall demand and metal prices in the medium term [5] - The report highlights the mixed performance of minor metals, with tungsten prices increasing due to rising demand in manufacturing [5] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are seeing price increases, indicating potential growth in demand for these materials [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report notes a 0.85% decline in Shanghai gold prices, with U.S. non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July, which is significantly below market expectations [5][42] 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have decreased by 1.9%, 1.2%, 0.9%, 3.0%, 3.3%, and 3.7% respectively [5][28] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides showed mixed results, while tungsten prices have increased due to a recovery in manufacturing demand [5][32] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices have risen, with cobalt products also showing upward trends, indicating a growing demand for energy metals [5][35] 2. Market Data - The report indicates a 0.94% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index, with the non-ferrous metals sector down 4.62% [36] 3. Key Events Review - The report highlights the significant downward revision of U.S. employment data for May and June, which has contributed to market volatility [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Based on historical patterns and the current policy - economic environment, it is likely that a dual - bull market for stocks and commodities will reappear from 2025 to 2026. Commodities will lead the way first, and the stock market will experience a full - scale upsurge after profit realization. In the context of the "Fed rate - cut cycle" and the "initiation of the restocking cycle", future commodity demand may shift from a structural recovery to a full - scale expansion, driving up the prices of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and energy - chemical products. The stock market is currently in the early stage of a bull market and is about to transition to a subsequent profit - driven stage. In the second half of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 4,000 points and rise at an accelerated pace. If the "anti - involution" reform can effectively address the negative feedback of insufficient domestic demand and over - capacity, Chinese assets may undergo a systematic revaluation comparable to that in 2007 [21]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 2005 - 2007 Double - Bull Market Characteristics - **Stock Market Evolution Path**: In June 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a historical low of 998 points. Then, catalyzed by the split - share structure reform policy, it rebounded to 1,300 points and entered a six - month sideways oscillation period. Starting in 2006, driven by over - heated economy and excessive liquidity, the index started an epic rally, reaching a historical peak of 6,124 points in October 2007, with a cumulative increase of 513.6% [5]. - **Commodity Leading Start**: The commodity market started half a year earlier than the stock market. In the summer of 2006, against the backdrop of accelerated global industrialization (especially high infrastructure and real - estate investment in China) and a weakening US dollar, the prices of industrial products such as copper, zinc, and crude oil entered a bull market first. During the 2004 - 2006 interest - rate hike cycle, the price of copper increased by 144.3%, crude oil by 105.6%, and the precious metal gold by 39.1% [5]. - **Core Driving Logic**: This market was essentially driven by both "fundamentals + liquidity". The split - share structure reform removed institutional constraints, high - speed economic growth boosted corporate profits, and a surge in trade surplus and RMB appreciation expectations led to excessive liquidity, jointly driving up asset prices [8]. Similarities and Differences between the Current Market and the 2005 - 2007 Cycle Similarities - **Policy - Driven Starting Point**: Both bull markets started with major institutional reforms. In 2005, the split - share structure reform solved the problem of non - tradable shares. The current round focuses on the "anti - involution" policy, targeting over - capacity and low - price competition to promote supply - side clearance [12]. - **Sideways Accumulation Phase**: The stock market experienced a long - term oscillation after the initial policy stimulus. In 2005, it traded sideways at 1,300 points for half a year. In the current round, after the policy bottom was established in September 2024, it traded sideways for about eight months until the commodity bull market spread to the cyclical sectors of the stock market in June 2025 [12]. - **Commodities Leading the Stock Market**: Commodities reacted earlier than the stock market. In 2006, the commodity market started half a year earlier than the stock market. Since June 2025, ultra - oversold commodities such as coking coal, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have rebounded significantly, with a much faster increase rate than the stock market [12]. Differences - **Policy Focus Shift**: In 2005, the focus was on demand stimulation (real - estate marketization + export tax rebates). The current round focuses on supply optimization (a unified national market + elimination of backward production capacity), and the covered industries have expanded from traditional steel and coal to emerging fields such as photovoltaics and lithium - ion batteries [13]. - **Economic Structure Transformation**: In 2005, the economy relied on investment and exports. Currently, it needs to rely on manufacturing upgrading and consumption recovery under the downward pressure of the real - estate market [14]. Policy Analysis - **2005 Reform**: The split - share structure reform in 2005 solved the historical problem of non - tradable shares, achieved a fully tradable market, and attracted large - scale entry of foreign and domestic funds, laying a liquidity foundation for the bull market. Meanwhile, "monetization of shantytown renovation" digested real - estate inventory, and infrastructure investment grew at an average annual rate of over 20%, directly boosting the demand for commodities such as steel and non - ferrous metals [17]. - **2024 - 2025 "Anti - Involution"**: The policy core from 2024 to 2025 has shifted to solving "involution - type over - capacity". Its framework has evolved from a concept to a systematic governance approach. The deep - seated logic is to break the vicious cycle of "increasing volume without increasing revenue". In July 2024, the Political Bureau meeting first proposed preventing "involution - type vicious competition", focusing on industry self - discipline. In July 2025, the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission upgraded it to "legally governing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity", targeting local protectionism and the bundling of investment - promotion interests, which has a significant impact on both traditional industries led by steel and cement and emerging industries led by photovoltaics and new - energy vehicles [18]. Commodity - to - Stock Market Conduction Logic - **2006 - 2007**: Commodities started first in 2006. Driven by the resonance of China's accelerated industrialization and the global inventory - replenishment cycle, the supply and demand of metals such as copper and aluminum and crude oil tightened. The price of copper rose from $2,980 to $7,280 (a 144.3% increase), and crude oil rose from $35.76 to $73.52 (a 105.6% increase). The stock market reacted later in 2007. The rise in commodity prices boosted corporate profits, with the profit growth rate of resource - related listed companies exceeding 100%, leading to a rally in cyclical stocks. The average increase of the non - ferrous metals sector was 400 - 500%, and coal stocks rose by more than 300%, and the rally spread to other sectors [19]. - **2025 Market**: The current commodity bull market started in June this year, earlier than the overall start of the stock market, but has significantly spread to relevant A - share sectors. Recently, coking coal, coke, soda ash, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, etc. have led the gains. The price of coking coal has rebounded by more than 50% from the bottom, and the price of polysilicon has broken through 50,000 yuan/ton from around 30,000 yuan/ton. The main driving factors include a reversal of policy expectations, industry losses forcing change, and the release of restocking demand. Since June, the cyclical sectors have responded to the rise in commodity prices first, showing a "commodity - mapped" increase [20]. Investment Recommendations - Build long - term positions in long - cycle scarce commodities such as copper, aluminum, and silver and hold them for the long term. - Build long - term positions in stock - index futures or other stock - related assets and hold them across years for the long term [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that over 90% of public FOFs achieved net value growth in Q2 2025, with a focus on diversified asset allocation and structural opportunities in the equity market [1][4]. - Different fund managers have varying investment strategies, with some emphasizing structural opportunities in new productivity sectors such as new consumption, new technology, and new manufacturing [2][4]. - Specific funds like Penghua Yixuan and Chuangjin Hexin have reported significant net value growth rates of 6.95% and 6.06% respectively, showcasing their unique asset allocation strategies [2][3]. Group 2 - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on high-dividend assets and technology sectors, with funds like Chuangjin Hexin adjusting their allocations to emphasize value stocks and technology growth [3][4]. - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests a potentially better performance in the stock market due to external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic inventory replenishment cycles [5]. - Managers express optimism about structural investment opportunities in the capital market, particularly in the context of a low-interest-rate environment and the potential for risk appetite recovery [4][5].

Summary of the Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Hong Kong stock market, specifically its performance in the first half of 2025, which showed a significant increase of over 20% [2][17]. - The market's activity level is approaching the levels seen during the 2015 bull market, with trading volume as a percentage of market capitalization high, indicating potential for further growth [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance and Drivers - Southbound capital has been a crucial driver for the rise in the Hong Kong stock market, with net purchases exceeding 730 billion HKD, accounting for about 40% of total trading volume [1][8]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority injected 129.4 billion HKD in May to maintain currency stability, which led to increased liquidity in the banking sector and a decrease in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) [1][7]. - The current market cycle shows similarities to 1997, with a declining property market but an early rebound in the stock market; however, the current downturn is milder, with mortgage delinquency rates significantly lower than in 1997 [3][11]. Fundamental Factors Supporting the Market - Positive fundamental factors include: - Stock returns are currently below economic growth rates, suggesting potential undervaluation [4][12]. - Significant improvement in corporate earnings growth across most sectors, with many industries returning to profitability [5][12]. - A favorable interest rate environment due to the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, historically beneficial for the Hong Kong stock market [5][15]. Comparison with Historical Cycles - The current cycle is compared to the 1997 cycle, noting that while both periods experienced a property market downturn, the current situation has a healthier mortgage delinquency rate of 0.13% compared to 1.42% in 1997 [10][11]. - The current property market has seen a decline of about 30% from its peak, which is less severe than the nearly 70% drop in 1997 [11]. Future Market Outlook - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains optimistic, with expectations of continued support from improving corporate earnings and a favorable macroeconomic environment [12][18]. - Investors are advised to consider a left-side strategy, gradually increasing positions amid uncertainty, while waiting for clearer signals regarding the U.S. economy and interest rates [19]. Other Important Insights - The U.S. economy's resilience and potential fiscal stimulus measures could further support the Hong Kong market, with a relatively low likelihood of a severe recession [16][18]. - Historical data suggests that during the later stages of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycles, the Hang Seng Index often breaks previous highs, indicating potential for further gains [15][18].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with gold prices dropping below $3250 per ounce, raising questions about whether this is a temporary dip or a trend reversal [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The recent decline in precious metals is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's indication of maintaining high interest rates until the end of the year, leading to a stronger dollar index at 105, which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver [3] - The reintroduction of tariffs by former President Trump has shifted market risk sentiment towards the dollar, further impacting precious metals negatively [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, long-term investors are encouraged to maintain a broader perspective, as a report from Minsheng Securities suggests that the U.S. economy is showing signs of fatigue, with a high likelihood of a rate cut cycle starting in the second half of the year [3] - Historical data indicates that gold prices tend to rise by an average of over 20% following the initiation of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle [3] - Central banks globally are accumulating gold, with China's central bank increasing its holdings for seven consecutive months, providing a stabilizing effect on gold prices [3] Group 3: Silver Market Insights - Silver is highlighted as a strong investment opportunity due to its increasing demand in the photovoltaic sector, with annual usage doubling and a supply-demand gap now at 120 million ounces [3] - The current gold-silver ratio is above 80, and historically, when this ratio falls below 60, silver tends to experience a price rebound, making the current price a favorable entry point [3] Group 4: Platinum and Palladium Dynamics - Palladium is facing short-term pressure due to declining demand for automotive catalysts, but breakthroughs in hydrogen fuel cell technology for electric vehicles may present new opportunities [4] - Platinum prices remain at levels comparable to those in 2000, and the potential growth of the hydrogen energy sector could position platinum as a valuable asset in the future [4] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The current market conditions are viewed as an opportune time for investment, with gold showing oversold signals as the RSI indicator has dropped below 30, historically leading to a rebound in over 70% of cases within three months [5] - Silver's combination of industrial and financial attributes makes it more elastic during a rate cut cycle, appealing to aggressive investors [5] - Patience is advised for palladium and platinum investors, as policy catalysts, such as the EU's carbon tariff regulations, may serve as turning points for these metals [5]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds target rate range at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive "pause" since the beginning of the current rate cut cycle in September 2024 [2] - Economic forecasts indicate a heightened concern over "stagflation," with the Fed lowering growth projections while raising inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [2][3] - The Fed's dot plot suggests two rate cuts in 2025, but the number of committee members who believe no cuts are needed has increased from four to seven since March, indicating a hawkish stance [2][3] Economic Forecasts - The Fed has revised down the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively, while raising core PCE inflation forecasts to 3.1%, 2.4%, and 2.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [2] - Unemployment rate forecasts have been adjusted upward to 4.5% for 2025 and 2026, and 4.4% for 2027 [2] Tariff Impact - The impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in the summer, with Powell indicating that high tariffs are likely to push inflation up and exert pressure on economic activity [3] - The transmission of tariffs to final consumers is anticipated to take time, with many companies expected to pass on the costs to consumers [3] Monetary Policy Guidance - Powell stated that rate cuts could come quickly or may take time, depending on the labor market and economic pressures [3] - The current Fed stance is described as "passive and reactive," with potential for rate hikes if stagflation risks intensify [3] Investment Recommendations - Gold is expected to perform well amid a potential "hard landing" in the U.S. economy, driven by factors such as dollar depreciation and renewed Fed rate cuts [4] - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is seen as having upside potential during the Fed's rate cut cycle, with expectations of improved margins and revenue [4] - U.S. equities face significant adjustment risks due to stagflation concerns, with both earnings and valuation pressures anticipated [4] - U.S. Treasuries may present a trend-following opportunity only after inflation declines, with potential for rapid interest rate increases beforehand [4]