通胀反弹

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和讯投顾刘昊:A股下周大A起飞?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 04:41
但咱不能光看好处,风险点必须拎出来,别一不小心踩坑。第一,降息背后可能藏着美国经济的 "隐 忧"—— 如果这是经济走弱、甚至要衰退的信号,后续美股一旦回调,大概率会波及 A 股,这点得有心 理准备。第二,通胀万一 "杀回马枪" 呢?要是后续通胀数据反弹,美联储可能又会收紧政策,到时候 市场节奏就会被打乱,所以必须紧盯着通胀数据不放。第三,咱们 A 股周五已经提前大涨了,说明不 少资金是 "先知先觉" 拿了先手,要是下周开盘涨得太猛、太高,反而容易被这些先手资金 "砸盘",追 高风险会变大。? 总的来说,这次鲍威尔释放的信号确实是大利好,但咱不能脑子一热就往里冲。后续投资,关键要盯紧 两大核心:一是美国的经济数据(尤其是就业和通胀)、政策动向,二是 A 股自身的开盘节奏和量 能。理性布局、控制仓位,才是靠谱的做法,别被短期情绪带偏了。? 最后想问问大家,对于这次美联储降息,你们有啥不同看法?是觉得机遇大于风险,还是更担心后续波 动? 兄弟姐妹们周末好!今天必须跟大家唠个重磅消息 —— 鲍威尔在全球央行年会上一开口,直接把金融 市场"炸" 出大动静,尤其是 9 月大概率降息这事儿,关乎咱们后续投资方向,咱得把重点 ...
美联储9月会降息吗,影响几何?
第一财经· 2025-08-14 02:41
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in the Federal Reserve's stance from hawkish to dovish, indicating a potential resumption of interest rate cuts due to weakening economic data and external pressures, with expectations for a possible rate cut as early as September 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Current Stance - The Federal Reserve has paused its interest rate cuts after a series of reductions in late 2024, with the federal funds rate remaining in the 4.25%-4.5% range, reflecting a dilemma between preventing economic recession and controlling inflation [3][4]. - Recent changes in the economic environment have led to increased signals of a dovish shift within the Federal Reserve, with market predictions suggesting a potential rate cut in September [3][4]. Economic Indicators and Influences - Economic data shows signs of weakening, with the manufacturing PMI dropping from 52.9 in June to 49.8 in July, and non-farm payrolls in July only adding 73,000 jobs, significantly below expectations [7][8]. - Tariff impacts on inflation have been relatively mild, with 64% of tariff costs absorbed by U.S. companies, leading to a manageable inflation environment, as indicated by the PCE price index showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in June [9]. Political and Internal Pressures - Former President Trump has exerted pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates, arguing that lower rates would benefit the economy and his political standing ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [10]. - The internal dynamics of the Federal Reserve have shifted, with an increase in dovish voices among its members, influenced by both external political pressures and changing economic conditions [10][11]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - The upcoming rate cuts are expected to be preventive rather than reactive, with a high probability (91.5%) of a 25 basis point cut in September, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [12][19]. - The anticipated rate cuts may occur 2-3 times within the year, totaling 50-75 basis points, as the Federal Reserve aims to maintain flexibility in response to evolving economic conditions [20]. Global and Chinese Market Implications - The resumption of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to have a positive impact on global and Chinese financial markets, with expectations of a weaker dollar and potential capital inflows into emerging markets [21][22]. - China's monetary policy may gain new room for easing, with potential for further rate cuts and a favorable environment for the renminbi to appreciate against the dollar [25][26].
核心通胀反弹沪银走势攀升
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-13 07:31
今日周三(8月13日)欧盘时段,白银期货目前交投于9274一线上方,今日开盘于9182美元/盎司,截至发 稿,白银期货暂报9300美元/盎司,上涨1.43%,最高触及9310美元/盎司,最低下探9135美元/盎司,目 前来看,白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 7月CPI数据在预期之内,能源价格下滑1.1%,食品价格持平,即便受关税冲击最显著的行业也仅现温 和涨幅。剔除汽车的核心商品价格仅上涨0.2%,表明企业仍在消化关税带来的大部分额外成本。不过 服务领域略显活跃,例如机票价格骤涨4%,医疗费用攀升0.7%。但住房成本环比仅增0.2%形成对冲, 房价回落与租金降温在此发挥了关键平抑作用。 最新CME"美联储观察"数据显示,9月维持利率不变的概率为6.6%,降息25个基点的概率为93.4%,到 10月维持利率不变的概率为2.4%,累计降息25个基点的概率为37.7%,累计降息50个基点的概率为 59.9%。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银目前两次试探9160不破,经过反弹,暂时收盘在9250,现在白银是多头趋势的高位震荡,本周就持 有前面的9200的低多,等待本周后三个交易日的上涨,本周的上涨空间预计不会很大,以 ...
中金:核心通胀反弹或加剧联储内部分歧
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 23:57
来源:金融界AI电报 中金公司研报指出,美国7月核心CPI季调环比上涨0.3%,同比由2.9%反弹至3.1%,高于市场预期;整 体CPI环比上涨0.2%,同比维持在2.7%,略低于预期。从分项来看,7月通胀呈现商品温和,服务反弹 的特征:关税成本仍在向零售端传导,但也有部分价格出现回落。一些此前下跌的服务价格转为上涨, 增加了通胀的粘性。我们维持此前判断,美国通胀将进入一轮结构性上行阶段。对美联储而言,核心 CPI并未朝着2%目标收敛,而是重回3%以上,与目标越来越远。这可能加大美联储内部分歧,使其难 以就政策决议形成共识。货币政策路径的变数将大大提升,市场波动将加剧。 ...
有色金属周报(氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金):美国7月消费端通胀反弹或削弱美联储降息预期,全球铝锭库存累积预期使铝价震荡承压-20250811
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 11:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of consumer - end inflation in the US in July may weaken the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the expectation of global aluminum ingot inventory accumulation puts pressure on aluminum prices [1]. - For alumina, the slight increase in domestic and imported bauxite prices pushes up production costs, but the expected supply - demand loosening due to rising operating capacity may lead to a weak and volatile alumina price [4]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the rebound of consumer - end inflation in the US in July may suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the increasing social inventory at home and abroad may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai aluminum prices [5]. - For aluminum alloy, the tight supply of scrap aluminum leads to continued losses in domestic recycled aluminum alloy production, and the rebound of consumer - end inflation in the US in July may keep the aluminum alloy price in a volatile pattern [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - side factors** - Domestic bauxite production and imports in August may increase, with prices rising slightly. Projects such as the Shanxi Jinzhong energy - saving and efficiency - enhancing renovation project and the Guangxi Fangchenggang new - construction project may increase China's alumina production in August. The domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the matching surplus of China's alumina to electrolytic aluminum operating capacity in July has expanded [4]. - The Indonesian project of Nanshan Aluminum may increase production, and the import window is closed, resulting in a decrease in domestic alumina imports and an increase in exports in August, and a decrease in domestic port alumina inventory [4]. - **Investment strategy** - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the pressure level around 3300 - 3600 [4]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors** - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production in August may increase due to project resumptions and new constructions. Imports in August may also increase as some overseas plants resume production [5]. - **Demand - side factors** - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has increased, but there are differences in different product segments [5]. - **Investment strategy** - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [5]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - side factors** - The production of domestic scrap aluminum in August may decrease, and imports may increase. The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys in August may increase, and the raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises may increase while the finished - product inventory may decrease [7]. - **Investment strategy** - It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 19700 - 19900 and the pressure level around 20200 - 20300 [7].
刚刚!降息25个基点
中国基金报· 2025-08-07 12:03
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points from 4.25% to 4%, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic challenges [4][16]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5 to 4 in favor of the rate cut, marking the first time in 28 years that a two-round vote was necessary to reach a decision [5][10]. - The decision reflects significant internal divisions within the Bank regarding how to address the dual challenges of slowing economic growth and rising inflation [7][10]. Economic Context - The UK economy is experiencing signs of weakness, with a reported loss of 185,000 jobs since the announcement of increased employer wage taxes and minimum wage by the Labour government [7]. - Despite a slight upward revision of the 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.25%, officials describe the overall economic situation as "still sluggish" [8]. Inflation Outlook - Inflation is expected to rise to 4% in September, higher than the previous forecast of 3.7%, driven by food price increases [7][16]. - The MPC remains vigilant about potential second-round inflation effects, particularly concerning wage pressures and consumer price inflation [7][16]. Future Monetary Policy - The MPC indicated that future rate cuts will depend on the progress made in reducing core inflation pressures [9][17]. - The market anticipates another rate cut by the end of the year, with projections suggesting a further decline to around 3.5% [9]. Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the UK stock market continued to decline, while the British pound appreciated [13].
美国Q2实际GDP年化季环比初值3%好于预期 PCE物价指数2.5%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-30 13:29
Economic Growth - The U.S. economy rebounded significantly in Q2, with inflation-adjusted GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3%, reversing the -0.5% contraction in Q1 and exceeding market expectations of 2.6% [1][4] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending increased by 1.4% in Q2, slightly below the expected 1.5%, marking the slowest growth in two consecutive quarters [5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in automobiles, showed signs of recovery, alongside improved service demand, driven by rising consumer confidence [6] Import and Export Dynamics - A significant decline in imports contributed to a 5 percentage point boost to GDP, a rare occurrence in economic history [5] - However, both business investment and exports experienced declines, indicating a weakening growth momentum amid high interest rates and slowing external demand [6] Inflation and PCE - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q2 showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% but above the expected 2.3%, suggesting a cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies [3][4] Real Estate and Inventory Impact - Residential investment fell at an annualized rate of 4.6%, the worst performance since 2022, as high interest rates deterred buyers and developers [7] - Inventory changes negatively impacted GDP by 3.17 percentage points, the largest drag since 2020, reflecting inventory buildup from earlier purchases being gradually cleared [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite strong Q2 GDP growth, underlying concerns about cooling domestic demand, inflation rebound, and weak investment persist, raising questions about the sustainability of the recovery [10] - Analysts suggest that while the data appears strong, it may mask underlying issues, and upcoming reports on consumer spending, inflation, and employment will provide further insights into economic momentum [10]
美联储风波不断,贵金属高位震荡
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-26 08:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Amid ongoing Fed turmoil, precious metals are in high - level oscillations. The short - term market sentiment fluctuates, but the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown. The Fed's independence is also uncertain. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level oscillations, and there's no need to be overly pessimistic. It's recommended to focus on tariff negotiation progress and the Fed's July interest - rate meeting at the end of the month [5][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield first declined and then rose. Precious metals showed an inverse relationship, rising first and then falling. Silver was more resilient than gold. London gold traded between $3338 - $3439 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 0.02%. London silver reached a new high of $39.523 since September 2011, trading between $38 - $39.5, with a weekly gain of 1.88%. Affected by exchange rates, domestic precious metals underperformed overseas markets. Shanghai gold traded between 774 - 794 yuan, with a weekly decline of 2.46%. Shanghai silver traded between 9213 - 9526 yuan, with a weekly gain of 1.28%. The US dollar index hovered between 97 - 98, with a weekly decline of 0.85%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield ranged from 4.33% - 4.44%, remaining at a relatively high level [5] - Market trading was affected by Fed turmoil, trade negotiation progress, and US macro "hard" data. The Trump administration pressured the Fed, but the Treasury Secretary soothed market sentiment. Tariff negotiations accelerated, with a preliminary agreement reached between the US and Japan, while the game between the US and the EU continued. US macro data was generally strong, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year slightly adjusted downwards. Overall, there were more negative factors this week, limiting the upward trend of precious metals [5] - US macro data: The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9 [5] - US tariff progress: The EU passed a 93 - billion - euro counter - tariff plan against the US, to take effect on August 7 if no agreement is reached. India is confident of reaching a trade agreement with the US. Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, with a 15% tariff rate on Japan and $550 billion in Japanese investment in the US. Trump also said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries, but is willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US [5] 3.1.2 Trading Logic - As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect, tariff negotiations between the US and other major economies have accelerated, easing market risk - aversion sentiment. The latest US employment and services PMI data show resilience, reducing market concerns about the deterioration of the US economic fundamentals. In the future, despite short - term market sentiment fluctuations, the benchmark scenario is inflation rebound and economic slowdown due to US tariff and policy uncertainties. The Fed's independence is also uncertain. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level oscillations [9] 3.1.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait for low - buying opportunities after a pullback [11] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Adopt the strategy of buying out - of - the - money call options [11] 3.2 Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Economy - GDP and Consumption - In 2024, the annual GDP growth rate reached 2.8%, better than expected. The consumption sector, accounting for two - thirds of the economy, continuously drove US GDP growth, with the service industry making a significant positive contribution. The investment sector also supported the economy [22] - In Q1 2025, affected by tariffs, the economy slowed down, recording - 0.3%, worse than the expected - 0.2%. This mainly reflected increased imports and reduced government spending (an 8% decline in defense spending) [23] - The latest data shows that US residents' pessimistic expectations have eased. The US retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, higher than the expected 0.1% and the previous value of - 0.9%. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5 and the previous value of 60.7. The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation in July was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% and the previous value of 5% [24][25] 3.2.2 US Economy - PMI Indicators - The two major PMI indicators in the US showed a divergence. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.2, higher than the expected 53 and the previous value of 52.9. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5, lower than the expected 52.7 and the previous value of 52.9. The US ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5 and the previous value of 49.9. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in June was 49 [27] 3.2.3 US Economy - Employment - Employment data shows that the US job market is temporarily stable. The seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in June were 147,000, higher than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The average hourly wage annual rate in June was 3.7%, lower than the expected 3.9%. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19 was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 [32] 3.2.4 Macroeconomic Factors - Inflation - In June, the overall US CPI annual rate rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The monthly rate was 0.3%, the highest since January, also in line with expectations. The core CPI annual rate rose to 2.9%, the highest since February, slightly lower than the expected 3% but up from the previous month's 2.8%. The monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%. The overall US CPI data showed a moderate rebound. After the data release, market expectations for Fed rate cuts this year slightly adjusted downwards [36] 3.3 Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 ETF and CFTC Positions - The data shows the trends of gold and silver ETF positions and CFTC speculative net positions, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [39] 3.3.2 Gold - Supply and Demand - In 2024, according to the World Gold Council, the total gold supply increased slightly by 1% year - on - year to 4974 tons. Mine production reached 3661 tons, basically unchanged year - on - year. Recycled gold totaled 1370 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Total gold demand was 4554 tons, a 1% year - on - year increase. Investment demand increased by 25% to 1180 tons, reaching a four - year high. Gold used in technology increased by 21 tons (+7%). Jewelry consumption hit a record low, only 1877 tons, a - 9% year - on - year decrease. Global central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold in 2024, exceeding 1000 tons for the third consecutive year [42] - For 2025, the World Gold Council predicts that gold supply will increase again due to factors such as slowing global economic growth, high gold prices, and a slight decline in geopolitical risk premiums. Low interest rates, high - valued stocks, a weak US dollar, and geopolitical risks are favorable for gold ETF, over - the - counter, and futures investments. Central banks may again purchase over 1000 tons of gold. However, economic slowdown and high prices may pressure jewelry demand. Technology - related gold demand is expected to remain stable due to continued investment in artificial intelligence [42] 3.3.3 Central Bank Gold Purchases - Since 2022, global central banks have been on a gold - buying spree. In 2022, the purchase volume reached a record high of 1082 tons, 1037 tons in 2023, and 1045 tons in 2024. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been active buyers [52] - In Q3 2024, central bank gold - buying activities slowed down to 186 tons. In Q4, in an environment of falling gold prices and Trump's inauguration, global central banks bought 333 tons of gold, a 54% year - on - year and 79% quarter - on - quarter increase [52] - Reasons for central bank gold purchases: China aims to optimize foreign exchange reserve structure, hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and promote RMB internationalization. Poland wants to prevent geopolitical risks and enhance financial security. Turkey uses gold to combat currency depreciation and inflation, reduce the risk of US dollar system sanctions, and as a hedging tool under low - interest - rate policies. India aims to optimize foreign exchange reserve structure and enhance international financial influence [52] 3.3.4 Silver - Supply and Demand - In 2024, according to the World Silver Association, the global silver supply was 31573 tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. Global silver demand was 36208 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. The demand mainly included 21166 tons for industrial use (6146 tons for photovoltaic use), 6491 tons for silver jewelry, 1686 tons for silverware, and 5938 tons for investment. The supply - demand gap was 4634 tons [54] - For 2025, the World Silver Association predicts that the supply will continue to grow by 2% to 32055 tons. Industrial silver demand is expected to change little, with photovoltaic silver use remaining at around 6000 tons. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3658 tons. The growth of the photovoltaic industry may be limited in 2025, and the trend of using less or no silver is emerging due to high silver prices [54] 3.3.5 Silver Inventory - Recently, the total visible silver inventory in major global exchanges, including LBMA, Comex, SHFE, and SGE, has rebounded from the historical low [61]
银河期货:关税阴霾未散 贵金属高位震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-25 07:06
Group 1 - The main focus is on the recent fluctuations in gold futures, with the Shanghai gold futures reporting a price of 776.50 yuan per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.98% [1] - The opening price for the day was 774.88 yuan per gram, with a recorded high of 779.24 yuan and a low of 774.32 yuan [1] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic developments include President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on various countries, alongside ongoing negotiations with the EU for lower tariffs [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, with 36 out of 50 economists expressing worries about its autonomy [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated a non-urgent approach to the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair, with Trump stating he will not dismiss Powell [2] Group 3 - The market's risk appetite has improved due to accelerating negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, with recent employment and services PMI data showing resilience in the U.S. economy [3] - Despite short-term market volatility, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and economic policies is expected to lead to inflationary pressures and economic slowdown, maintaining a high level of fluctuation in precious metals [3] - Key focus areas include the progress of tariff negotiations and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting at the end of the month [3]
美联储7月降息概率跌破95%,内部博弈与压力下的利率迷局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-23 04:18
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's independence and credibility are under unprecedented scrutiny, with the outcome of the current interest rate dilemma poised to significantly influence the global economy in the coming years [3][5][9] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The decision to maintain interest rates in July is seen as a precursor to potential rate cuts in September, with a 58% probability of a 25 basis point cut and only a 2.7% chance of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by year-end [3][5] - The key variable influencing these decisions remains inflation trends, with upcoming economic indicators expected to provide further insights [3][5] Group 2: Political Pressure and Economic Reality - The debate surrounding interest rates is rooted in the conflict between economic signals of slowdown and political pressures from President Trump, who has publicly criticized Fed Chair Powell and suggested potential dismissal [7][9] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has advised a gradual adjustment strategy to balance the calls for rate cuts with the need for caution amid unclear economic data [7][9] Group 3: Diverging Views within the Fed - Fed officials are divided, with some warning of economic slowdown risks while others, like Williams, predict inflationary pressures [5][9] - Waller, a proponent of rate cuts, argues that current economic growth is closer to zero and presents three reasons for easing: tariffs causing one-time price increases, the need for a neutral monetary policy, and a precarious labor market [8][9] Group 4: Inflation Concerns - Concerns about inflation are rising, with recent CPI and PPI data indicating an increase, and core inflation reaching approximately 2.7% [9] - Waller's analysis suggests that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be overstated, while other analysts argue that the inflationary effects of tariffs are underestimated, indicating a potential rebound in inflation [9] Group 5: Future of the Fed - The race for the next Fed Chair has begun, with potential candidates including Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, current Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, and Christopher Waller, as Powell's term ends in May 2026 [7][9] - The CEOs of major Wall Street banks have publicly supported the Fed's independence, warning that political interference could undermine the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [9]