Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term, attention should be paid to the callback risk as the recent decline in coal prices brings some callback pressure to the coal chemical industry. However, in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips. The low valuation of urea is a result of the market's consensus on the supply - demand surplus pressure, but from a driving perspective, the urea price is supported at a low level, and the bottom of the urea price may gradually become clear. [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On December 5, compared with December 4, UR01 decreased by 15 yuan/ton (-0.89%), UR05 by 9 yuan/ton (-0.52%), and UR09 by 11 yuan/ton (-0.62%). [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule)**: Among them, the prices in Shandong and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58% and 0.59% respectively), the price in Shanxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.64%), and the prices in Henan, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged. [1] - **Upstream Costs**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - **Downstream Prices**: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton (0.97%), and in Henan by 10 yuan/ton (0.38%). The prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 decreased by 6 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1696 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1696 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1670 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1672 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1682 yuan/ton, and the position was 200,353 lots. [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the CESCO copper conference shows that institutions and the industry generally support buying on dips. The copper price is expected to move up, ranging between $10,500 and $11,300, driven by strong domestic demand and overseas demand for power grids and computing. However, the potential outflow of North American copper inventories due to the disappearance of US tariffs is a risk factor [1]. - For aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded, with significant inventory reduction. It may fluctuate in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1]. - For zinc, the price has fluctuated this week. The supply side faces challenges with declining TC and potential production cuts in December. The demand side is weak both at home and abroad. The export window is open, and the price may not fall deeply. It's advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, look for reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage for the 01 - 03 spread [2]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are rising. With ongoing policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities can be monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, the supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Given the potential policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities are worth attention [3]. - For lead, the price has declined this week, with improved sales. The supply is abundant, and demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,200. It's advisable to observe the increase in warehouse receipts and the price support of waste batteries [5]. - For tin, the price has increased this week. The supply side has limited recovery potential with many disturbances, and demand is mainly rigid. In the short - term, it's advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, consider buying near the cost line [8]. - For industrial silicon, the production in Q4 is expected to be balanced with a slight surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price will likely oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market has been volatile due to multiple factors. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, but the upward price movement depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the spot premium of Shanghai copper rose from 115 to 220, the scrap - refined copper spread increased by 869, and the LME inventory increased by 675 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to rise, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased domestic power grid demand in 2026, global computing center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction demand. The bearish factor is the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased from 21,450 to 22,010, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The Shanghai aluminum futures price has rebounded, and inventories are decreasing. The market may fluctuate in the short - term, with supply and demand expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased from 22,370 to 22,990, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,875 tons [1][2][12]. - **Market Outlook**: The zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as declining TC and potential production cuts in December. The demand is weak both at home and abroad. The export window is open, and the price may not fall deeply [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased from 119,500 to 120,300, and the LME inventory increased by 126 tons [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are rising. With ongoing policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities can be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Given the potential policy support in Indonesia, short - selling opportunities are worth attention [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the lead price decreased, the LME inventory decreased by 5,100 tons [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price has declined this week, with improved sales. The supply is abundant, and demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,200 [5]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the tin price increased, and the LME inventory decreased by 20 tons [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply side has limited recovery potential with many disturbances, and demand is mainly rigid. In the short - term, it's advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, consider buying near the cost line [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis improved, the 553 East China and Tianjin basis decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 336 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The production in Q4 is expected to be balanced with a slight surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price will likely oscillate at the cycle bottom based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From November 28 to December 4, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices decreased slightly, the basis weakened, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 770 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The market has been volatile due to multiple factors. In the short - term, supply and demand are both strong, but the upward price movement depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the CESCO copper conference shows that institutions and the industry generally agree on the idea of buying on dips. The copper price is expected to move up, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased demand from the domestic power grid in 2026, global computing power center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. Bearish factors mainly concern the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. - For aluminum, the Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded. Aluminum ingot inventories have decreased significantly, and downstream consumption is fair. It may show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. - For zinc, the zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as accelerating decline in domestic and imported TC, and some smelters have production changes. The demand side is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. The export window has opened, and the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [2]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad. Given the ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. - For stainless steel, supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Considering the Indonesian policy's motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. - For lead, the lead price has declined this week, and trading has improved. Supply is abundant, while demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and social inventories are starting to accumulate. The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200, and cautious operation is recommended [4][5]. - For tin, the tin price has risen this week. The supply side has limited processing fees and various disturbances, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid needs. In the short - term, the fundamentals are fair, and it is recommended to hold near the cost line on price dips or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [8]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, due to over - capacity and low operating rates, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the market has multiple expectations this week. The raw material supply is still tight, and the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons. However, due to high inventories in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the price increase still depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [9]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 20, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 309, and the LME inventory increased by 2,375 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to move up, with a range of $10,500 - $11,300. Bullish factors include limited domestic scrap copper supply, increased demand from the domestic power grid in 2026, global computing power center construction, and Southeast Asian power construction. Bearish factors mainly concern the potential outflow of North American inventories if US tariffs disappear [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 80, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased significantly, and downstream products also showed inventory reduction [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The Shanghai aluminum futures price has stabilized and rebounded. It may show a volatile trend in the short - term. Supply and demand are expected to be relatively loose at the beginning of 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 180, the LME zinc inventory increased by 350, and the LME zinc注销仓单 decreased by 250 [1][2]. - **Market Outlook**: The zinc price has fluctuated this week. The supply side has issues such as accelerating decline in domestic and imported TC, and some smelters have production changes. The demand side is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. The export window has opened, and the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider the positive arbitrage opportunity between contracts 01 - 03 [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,290 [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of pure nickel has decreased slightly, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad. Given the ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel ore market and the policy motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the price of 304 hot - rolled coils increased by 50, and other prices remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply has increased slightly, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high. Considering the Indonesian policy's motivation to support prices, short - selling opportunities on price increases can be monitored [3]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the lead price decreased, the LME lead inventory decreased by 3,925, and the LME lead注销仓单 decreased by 3,900 [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price has declined this week, and trading has improved. Supply is abundant, while demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and social inventories are starting to accumulate. The lead price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 16,900 - 17,200, and cautious operation is recommended [4][5]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the tin price increased, the LME tin inventory decreased by 15, and the LME tin注销仓单 remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price has risen this week. The supply side has limited processing fees and various disturbances, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigid needs. In the short - term, the fundamentals are fair, and it is recommended to hold near the cost line on price dips or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the basis of 421 silicon in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 170, and the basis of 553 silicon in East China and Tianjin also increased by 170. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 188 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, due to over - capacity and low operating rates, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From November 26 to December 2, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 50, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 770 [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The market has multiple expectations this week. The raw material supply is still tight, and the downstream procurement is mainly for rigid needs. The short - term supply and demand are both strong. If CATL resumes production in December, the de - stocking is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons. However, due to high inventories in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the price increase still depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand improvement, or stronger holding willingness [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's low valuation is a result of market consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but from a driving perspective, prices are supported at low levels. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 increased from 1652.00 yuan/ton to 1662.00 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase; UR05 rose from 1727.00 yuan/ton to 1737.00 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; UR09 went up from 1748.00 yuan/ton to 1755.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% increase. [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - particle): Shandong decreased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1590.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change; Henan dropped from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.62% change; Hebei fell from 1630.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton, a - 1.23% change; Jiangsu declined from 1590.00 yuan/ton to 1580.00 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change. [1] - Upstream costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 930.00 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased from 2980.00 yuan/ton to 3000.00 yuan/ton, a 0.67% increase; the price of melamine in Jiangsu rose from 5150.00 yuan/ton to 5200.00 yuan/ton, a 0.97% increase. [1] Key Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1650 yuan/ton, with a high of 1667 yuan/ton, a low of 1641 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1662 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 1656 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume was 254752 hands. [1] Trading Strategy - Sell option profit - taking, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term. [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply increasing, spot being strong, domestic inventory starting to decrease, and tire operating rate at a high level. The basis is -500 (spot price is 14350), which is bearish. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao has increased week - on - week and year - on - year, showing a neutral situation. The price is running below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, also bearish. The market has support below, and it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, and downstream consumption is high [4][6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the exchange has been continuously decreasing, while the inventory in Qingdao has been increasing [4][14]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) fell on November 5th, and the basis weakened on November 5th [8][35]. - **Import**: The import volume has rebounded [20]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [23][29][32]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of palm oil is under adjustment pressure and is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][3][14] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Palm Oil Price Market Review - The report presents the 24 - degree palm oil average price trend chart but no related text analysis [5] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report shows the China palm oil import data chart but no related text analysis [7] 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows the palm oil transaction average price statistics chart but no related text analysis [9] 4. Cost - Profit Analysis - The report shows the palm oil import cost and profit chart but no related text analysis [12] 5. Market Outlook - The near - term fundamentals of palm oil feature "increasing supply and decreasing demand", with rising production and inventory pressure remaining. The implementation of Indonesia's B50 plan is still far off, having limited impact on the palm oil supply pattern in the short term and failing to provide substantial support to the current market. The palm oil market has entered a stage of "all bullish factors exhausted", with short - term price adjustment pressure and expected to mainly move in a volatile manner. It is recommended to buy on dips [3][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Both industrial silicon and lithium carbonate futures are currently in a wide - range oscillation. For industrial silicon, the 2511 contract is expected to trade between 7,700 and 10,000 yuan; for lithium carbonate, the 2511 contract is expected to move in the range of 65,000 to 100,000 yuan [8][30]. 3. Summaries by Section Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Industrial silicon futures are in a large - range oscillation. As of October 17, the 421 price in Xinjiang was 9,100 yuan/ton, 9,900 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 10,000 yuan/ton in Sichuan. The daily price is generally in a downward channel, and the main short - side camp has a slight advantage [7]. - The industrial silicon 2511 contract is expected to operate between 7,700 and 10,000 [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the strategy was to mainly buy on dips; this week, it is advisable to consider grid trading within the range [11][12]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a canceled warrant ratio of 25.73%, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - Lithium carbonate futures are in a large - range oscillation. As of October 17, the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,250 yuan/ton. The daily chart of lithium carbonate futures is in a sideways phase, and the main funds show a strong bearish sentiment [30]. - The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to operate between 65,000 and 100,000 yuan [30]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week, the strategy was to consider grid trading; this week, it is advisable to mainly buy on dips as it moves in a large range [33]. - **Related Data** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [36]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a canceled warrant ratio of 66.03%, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [41].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the current urea spot price is oscillating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips after the spot price stabilizes. Specifically, it is advisable to pay attention to the buying - on - dips opportunity of the 01 contract [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 15, compared with September 12, UR01 futures price increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.20%) to 1683 yuan/ton, UR05 increased by 13 yuan/ton (0.76%) to 1731 yuan/ton, and UR09 increased by 180 yuan/ton (11.46%) to 1750 yuan/ton [1] - In terms of domestic spot prices (small - granular), prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased, with price changes of - 20 yuan/ton (- 1.20%), - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.61%), and - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.61%) respectively, while prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - On September 15, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton compared with September 12; the 01 - 05 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream anthracite prices in Henan, Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream prices: the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) to 5083 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1666 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1688 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1665 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1683 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton [1] Long - Short Logic - Recently, there has been a resurgence of anti - involution sentiment in coking coal. The sharp rise of coking coal in the night session yesterday drove the coal - chemical sentiment to be relatively strong [1] - From a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1] - From a driving perspective, there are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renovation, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80%, and there is not much idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations, the urea exports from September to October are relatively promising [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the future. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old facilities, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, it is suggested to focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the 01 contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: The UR01 contract in Shandong decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.83%) to 1669 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 14 yuan/ton (-0.81%) to 1719 yuan/ton, and UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.68%) to 1613 yuan/ton [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The domestic small - particle urea prices in Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.60%) to 1670 yuan/ton, in Northeast China decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.59%) to 1680 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu decreased by 20 yuan/ton (-1.20%) to 1650 yuan/ton. The price in Hebei remained unchanged [1]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 14 yuan/ton to - 49 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu all remained unchanged [1]. 4. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1681 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1692 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1668 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1669 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton, and the position was 283349 lots [1]. 5. Trading Strategy - Focus on the opportunity to go long on dips in the 01 contract [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall idea is to go long on dips, considering the slowdown of the US labor market, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the loosening of Trump's tariff policy, the arrival of the domestic downstream demand peak season, and the approaching inventory inflection point. A long - AD short - AL arbitrage strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Viewpoint - **Fundamental Analysis**: Guinea's bauxite prices rose by $0.2 per dry ton to $75 due to the rainy season and mining复产 uncertainties. Alumina operating capacity increased by 1.7 million tons to 96.75 million tons, and inventory rose by 112,000 tons to 3.609 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 30,000 tons to 44.399 million tons. Domestic downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate rose by 1% to 61.7%. Aluminum ingot and bar social inventory increased but at a slower pace. The secondary casting aluminum alloy industry recovered moderately, with increased but under - expected orders, and new policies pressured production [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for casting aluminum alloy, it is recommended to go long on dips or use the long - AD short - AL strategy [4]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and the RMB exchange rate, but no specific analysis is provided [6][7]. 3.3. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply tightened, with stable prices in Shanxi and Henan due to strengthened safety supervision, environmental inspections, and rainfall. Guinea's bauxite prices rose due to the rainy season and复产 uncertainties [10]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 96.75 million tons (up 1.7 million tons week - on - week), and the开工 rate was 84.4%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,101 yuan/ton (down 82.4 yuan/ton week - on - week). National alumina inventory was 3.609 million tons (up 112,000 tons week - on - week). Newly put - into - production capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north entered a stable - production state [14]. 3.5. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report shows data on alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume, but no specific analysis is provided [16][17][18][19]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity was 45.232 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 44.399 million tons (up 30,000 tons week - on - week). The operating capacity increased steadily, with the resumption of production in Guizhou and the commissioning of replacement capacity in Yunnan Aluminum Yixin basically completed, and the remaining 50,000 - ton capacity of Baise Silver Sea's technical renovation project continuing to resume production [21]. 3.7. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on aluminum rod processing fees, Shanghai aluminum futures prices,动力煤 prices, and aluminum import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [25]. 3.8. Inventory - The report shows the historical data of aluminum bar, aluminum ingot, SHFE aluminum futures, and LME aluminum inventories, but no specific analysis is provided [27][28][29][30]. 3.9. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The开工 rate of secondary aluminum alloy leading enterprises rose by 1.8% to 55.3%. New policies pressured production, with some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi receiving tax - refund termination notices and some planning to implement new policies on September 1st. In September, the secondary aluminum industry recovered moderately, with increased but under - expected orders [33]. 3.10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report shows data on ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices, aluminum ingot and aluminum alloy price differences, aluminum alloy futures forward curves, and ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [32][38][39]. 3.11. Downstream开工 - The开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose by 1% to 61.7%. - **Aluminum Profiles**: The开工 rate rose by 1% to 53%. Industrial profiles' export demand increased due to the cancellation of component tax rebates, and automotive profiles' production was stable. Construction profiles' demand remained sluggish [46]. - **Aluminum Plates and Strips**: The开工 rate rose by 1.2% to 68.6%. With the arrival of the peak season, both domestic and foreign trade orders increased, and enterprises' willingness to stock raw materials and finished products strengthened [46]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The开工 rate rose by 1% to 64.8%. Although new orders were limited, existing orders provided support. State Grid orders were concentrated in the second half of the year, leading to different recovery rhythms in different regions [50]. - **Primary Aluminum Alloys**: The开工 rate rose by 0.2% to 56.6%. The traditional consumption peak season started, but the resumption of production in the aluminum bar and other primary processing sectors continued to divert molten aluminum, resulting in a slow recovery at the beginning of the peak season [50].